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The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

🕔15:56, 11.Jan 2022

Uncommon truths  It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Market sentiment is now mixed (thanks to the Fed), so our list of surprises contains something for everybody (these hypothetical predictions are our views

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2021 in review

2021 in review

🕔14:35, 6.Jan 2022

The Covid pandemic again dominated our thoughts in 2021. Nevertheless, cyclical assets did well (though our list of 10 surprises had mixed results). We are more cautious about 2022. A year ago, we were hopeful that vaccines would allow strong

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Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

🕔15:16, 14.Dec 2021

The economic recovery has been thrown into jeopardy by the emergence of the new Omicron variant of Covid-19. However, we think that it is unlikely to completely derail the cycle and should allow central banks to tighten monetary policy in

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Could there be a shortage of oil?

Could there be a shortage of oil?

🕔15:21, 30.Nov 2021

Could a lack of upstream investment lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices? We think lower investment was due to falling prices and believe it is now reversing. We remain wary of oil. 

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Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

🕔10:05, 23.Nov 2021

Given our view that 2022 will be a year of transition and that asset class returns will converge, we adopt a more balanced approach within our Model Asset Allocation, though still maintain a preference for cyclical assets. We reduce the

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Africa 2021 A continent of opportunity

Africa 2021 A continent of opportunity

🕔00:58, 17.Nov 2021

We believe that Africa will be the economic and investment story of this century. However, it is a continent of 54 countries, each with its own potential, pitfalls and capacity to absorb different forms of investment. The aim of this document is

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On corporate margins and inflation rates

On corporate margins and inflation rates

🕔16:14, 4.Nov 2021

The sharp rise in inflation rates across many economies driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages has been a major concern for investors as economies opened up after pandemicrelated lockdowns. Among other effects, this may have an impact on

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A transitory change in correlation

A transitory change in correlation

🕔14:30, 11.Oct 2021

Uncommon truths: Rising bond yields have recently been associated with falling equity prices (reversing the trend of this century). We think this is a temporary reversal and do not fear higher yields, unless caused by costpush inflation (we would then

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The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2021 Q4

The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2021 Q4

🕔14:09, 23.Sep 2021

Despite another good three months for cyclical assets, we are sticking with them within our Model Asset Allocation. We make minimal changes, with a reduction in the allocation to highyield credit (to Underweight) and a corresponding increase to equities (going

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Climate change revisited

Climate change revisited

🕔09:26, 24.Aug 2021

A range of emission and temperature change scenarios are examined. It is clear that technology will be key in mitigating change. However, we think large-scale adaptation could benefit infrastructure, engineering, housing and …

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021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

🕔14:33, 4.Aug 2021

With Covid-19 top of mind, impacting both operations and investment strategies, the impact of the ongoing pandemic is the major theme running throughout. This includes an examination of adjustments made in response to the crisis and the impact on long-term

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The end of the beginning?

The end of the beginning?

🕔16:26, 22.Jul 2021

Strategic Sector Selector The resilience of the rally in global equities was tested in the second quarter of 2021 by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and more hawkish messages by the US Federal Reserve. However, markets continued to grind higher

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Global debt review 2021

Global debt review 2021

🕔16:35, 2.Jul 2021

Global debt ratios increased by a record amount in 2020. Half was due to rising government debt and the biggest gains were in developed countries. Falling bond yields dampened the rise in debt service ratios but that may not last,

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The Big Picture 2021 Q3

The Big Picture 2021 Q3

🕔11:34, 28.Jun 2021

We believe this economic cycle is in its infancy and, despite valuation concerns, are sticking with a preference for cyclical assets within our Model Asset Allocation. We make minimal changes, with a small reduction in the allocation to commodities (to

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Staying the course

Staying the course

🕔15:17, 19.Apr 2021

Strategic Sector Selector  Global equity markets posted strong returns in 2021 Q1 after a double-digit rise in the final quarter of last year despite a renewed rise in infection rates in Europe, South Asia and South America. We think the

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What can stop Biotech?

What can stop Biotech?

🕔12:47, 22.Feb 2021

The biotech sector has generated stellar returns since its inception and we view it as a strategic pillar of our model allocations. However, the growth advantage is not what it was and we fear the short-term effect of rising bond yields.

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Hyper Real: An Overview of Global Blockchain Industry Trends

Hyper Real: An Overview of Global Blockchain Industry Trends

🕔15:24, 3.Feb 2021

What is blockchain technology? Blockchain technology is an umbrella term covering a set of tools, methods, and processes for electronic recordkeeping between multiple participants. Blockchains are peer-to-peer (P2P) networks composed of different entities that collectively maintain and update a shared set of records.

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Central banks in a pickle

Central banks in a pickle

🕔14:50, 2.Feb 2021

Central banks in a pickle Uncommon truths  We think tapering is off the agenda for 2021 and believe that central banks may purchase increasing amounts of assets. That may be good for risk assets this year but we worry where

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2020 – the year of living dangerously

2020 – the year of living dangerously

🕔12:33, 7.Jan 2021

Uncommon truths  2020 – the year of living dangerously Our list of 10 surprises didn’t envisage the global pandemic that dominated 2020. Even so, we had some successes and cyclical assets did well. We expect that to continue in 2021,

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The builder’s guide to Bitcoin

The builder’s guide to Bitcoin

🕔08:08, 6.Jan 2021

Uncommon truths  Looking at global stock indices, you wouldn’t know there had been a global pandemic and recession during 2020. On the other hand, gold bears witness to the problems and Bitcoin has recently taken up the mantle. Applying our

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Light at the end of the tunnel

Light at the end of the tunnel

🕔11:42, 23.Nov 2020

The Big Picture – 2021 Outlook 2020 has seen defensive assets outperform cyclicals. We expect the opposite in 2021. Despite short term Covid-related risks, recent vaccine news provides valuable light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, some cyclical assets have

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Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

🕔11:02, 20.Nov 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020 IFI multi-sector asset allocation overview Macro factor summary: We have upgraded our growth expectations for the US and Europe and expect growth momentum to persist in 2021. We expect spare capacity to keep

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Invesco Global Factor Investing Study 2020

Invesco Global Factor Investing Study 2020

🕔15:21, 30.Oct 2020

Welcome to our fifth annual Global Factor Investing Study, based on an interview programme with 238 factor investors. This study incorporates the views of 138 institutional investors and 100 wholesale investors that are together responsible for managing over US$25.4 trillion

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Finding the opportunity in ESG

Finding the opportunity in ESG

🕔09:54, 30.Sep 2020

ESG disclosures: the bedrock of the sustainable finance agenda At Invesco, we consider environmental, social and governance issues (ESG) not only as financially material considerations but a core part of long-term value creation. And we are not alone- asset managers

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Does it matter who wins the US election?

Does it matter who wins the US election?

🕔11:01, 28.Sep 2020

Uncommon truths  I have long expected Joe Biden to be elected as the next president of the US. I believe the stock market implications are less than many fear but not all sectors will be impacted in the same way.

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What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

🕔09:58, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

🕔10:00, 3.Sep 2020

Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …

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Is China over-investing?

Is China over-investing?

🕔11:05, 1.Sep 2020

Uncommon truths  China is often accused of over-investing and its capital productivity has fallen. However, marginal efficiency of capital is positive and return on equity is in the middle of the developed comparator range. We recently wrote that China’s economy

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Sins of omission: managing omission risk in discretionary strategies

Sins of omission: managing omission risk in discretionary strategies

🕔08:02, 28.Aug 2020

Persistent positive skew in the distribution of returns across index constituents suggests that a successful active equity management program must include a process to mitigate omission risk – i.e. the opportunity cost of missing out highreturning stocks that buoy average

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How far from normal?

How far from normal?

🕔11:44, 24.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths  Covid-19 has not gone away, shutdowns are being selectively reintroduced and we suspect the recovery becomes more difficult from here. We maintain a diversified model asset allocation.  We have been living with Covid-19 for more than six months

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2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

🕔11:43, 20.Aug 2020

Strategic Perspective. It is difficult to imagine that only three months ago we were writing about riding out the first global recession, record levels of unemployment and declines in earnings not seen during any of our lifetimes. This historic decline

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US jobless claims and vaccine developments bring positive news

US jobless claims and vaccine developments bring positive news

🕔09:47, 20.Aug 2020

Last week, I laid out five things to watch in the month of August. Over the past seven days, we’ve seen new developments in each one. This week, I offer a quick update to each of those five issues, and

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Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights

🕔15:12, 19.Aug 2020

Evaluating the four P's (Pandemic, Policy, Pricing and Portfolios)  The first half of this year has been dominated by the spreading coronavirus pandemic and the policy response to it. The latter has been overwhelming; both monetary and fiscal policy are

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Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

🕔15:11, 14.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no

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Applied philosophy

Applied philosophy

🕔11:21, 10.Aug 2020

Factors in two flavours  Strange things are happening with factors. Was the market turbulence in February and March just a dream? Factors seem to tell us that the market …

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Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2020

Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study 2020

🕔11:38, 31.Jul 2020

Welcome to Invesco’s eighth annual study of sovereign investors. Since the publication of the first report in 2013, the study has evolved to cover 139 institutions, including interviews with chief investment officers, portfolio strategists and heads of asset classes at

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The Eurozone’s Hamiltonian Movement

The Eurozone’s Hamiltonian Movement

🕔15:15, 17.Jul 2020

The European Recovery Instrument is Neither a Hamiltonian Moment nor a non-Hamiltonian Muddle  We answer key questions about new EU proposals for a joint fiscal cushion in response to COVID-19: Are these plans a “Hamiltonian Moment” — after Alexander Hamilton’s

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Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2020

Invesco Global Fixed Income Study 2020

🕔15:39, 26.Jun 2020

In 2019, the number of resondents grew from 145 to 159 fixed income professionals, to incorporate the views of 121 institutional and 38 wholesale investors that are together responsible for managing over …

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The Big Picture Jun 2020 – Quarterly update From Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office

The Big Picture Jun 2020 – Quarterly update From Invesco’s Global Market Strategy Office

🕔09:37, 26.Jun 2020

In the face of what we expect to be the deepest global recession in living memory (by far), equity markets are running with their eyes wide shut into what feels like a trap: they are focusing on policy support and

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Pandemic Progression and Prospects: Facts, Figures and Possibilities

Pandemic Progression and Prospects: Facts, Figures and Possibilities

🕔07:41, 9.Jun 2020

Overview: Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Measures  The key epidemiological data about the pandemic point to important, shared trends across countries amid major differences in national experiences. The pandemic has followed an exponential trajectory — although at very different rates around the

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5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

🕔12:42, 28.May 2020

China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.   

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The Facts Behind Factor Performance

The Facts Behind Factor Performance

🕔15:58, 15.May 2020

The Invesco White Paper Series – March 2020 Due to its simplicity, market-cap weighting has long been a popular means of calculating the composition of market indexes. But as an investment strategy, market-cap weighting has limitations — frequently resulting in outsized

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Strategic Sector Selector Is this elevator going up or down?

Strategic Sector Selector Is this elevator going up or down?

🕔14:35, 15.May 2020

This is not the bear market we were expecting to end the cyclical uptrend in equities and definitely not the first quarter we envisaged when we wrote our previous edition. Our job is made more difficult by the uncertainty surrounding

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Invesco Fixed Income Multi-Sector Asset Allocation Outlook – 2nd quarter

Invesco Fixed Income Multi-Sector Asset Allocation Outlook – 2nd quarter

🕔14:25, 15.May 2020

Macro factor summary: The coronavirus crisis has delivered a shock to the global economy that is unprecedented in size and cause. Methods of economic forecasting based on standard economic variables are not sufficient to analyze global economic growth. We have

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US Municipal bond market recap and outlook

US Municipal bond market recap and outlook

🕔14:17, 14.May 2020

Highlights Municipal bond prices fell during March, resulting in negative returns for the first quarter, on fears about potential economic fallout of a global pandemic. Municipals significantly underperformed US Treasuries, as Treasury yields dropped to record levels and municipal bonds

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Investing in an uncertain world

Investing in an uncertain world

🕔13:53, 1.May 2020

The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12

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Policies, Performance and Prognosis beyond Pandemic Pandemonium and Panics

Policies, Performance and Prognosis beyond Pandemic Pandemonium and Panics

🕔11:58, 30.Apr 2020

COVID-19 has pressured the global economy in an unprecedented way. What will be the lasting impacts? In order to get a full picture of the impact of this global pandemic, Invesco’s Global Market Strategy (GMS) Office has partnered with a

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How have ESG objectives behaved during this year’s market turbulence?

How have ESG objectives behaved during this year’s market turbulence?

🕔17:10, 23.Apr 2020

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) have become important considerations in mainstream investment processes. Adoption rates vary by region and by sector. Following an extended bull market, the spread of the corona virus in early 2020 and the associated containment measures

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Are credit spreads wide enough?

Are credit spreads wide enough?

🕔11:04, 22.Apr 2020

Uncommon truths  Have credit spreads widened enough? We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context. This leaves us more concerned about high-yield than investment-grade but we believe

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Are credit spreads wide enough?

Are credit spreads wide enough?

🕔09:38, 21.Apr 2020

Uncommon truths  Have credit spreads widened enough? We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context. This leaves us more concerned about high-yield than investment-grade but we believe

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