The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main
Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …
Uncommon truths China is often accused of over-investing and its capital productivity has fallen. However, marginal efficiency of capital is positive and return on equity is in the middle of the developed comparator range. We recently wrote that China’s economy
Persistent positive skew in the distribution of returns across index constituents suggests that a successful active equity management program must include a process to mitigate omission risk – i.e. the opportunity cost of missing out highreturning stocks that buoy average
Uncommon truths Covid-19 has not gone away, shutdowns are being selectively reintroduced and we suspect the recovery becomes more difficult from here. We maintain a diversified model asset allocation. We have been living with Covid-19 for more than six months
Strategic Perspective. It is difficult to imagine that only three months ago we were writing about riding out the first global recession, record levels of unemployment and declines in earnings not seen during any of our lifetimes. This historic decline
Last week, I laid out five things to watch in the month of August. Over the past seven days, we’ve seen new developments in each one. This week, I offer a quick update to each of those five issues, and
Evaluating the four P's (Pandemic, Policy, Pricing and Portfolios) The first half of this year has been dominated by the spreading coronavirus pandemic and the policy response to it. The latter has been overwhelming; both monetary and fiscal policy are
Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no
Factors in two flavours Strange things are happening with factors. Was the market turbulence in February and March just a dream? Factors seem to tell us that the market …
Welcome to Invesco’s eighth annual study of sovereign investors. Since the publication of the first report in 2013, the study has evolved to cover 139 institutions, including interviews with chief investment officers, portfolio strategists and heads of asset classes at
The European Recovery Instrument is Neither a Hamiltonian Moment nor a non-Hamiltonian Muddle We answer key questions about new EU proposals for a joint fiscal cushion in response to COVID-19: Are these plans a “Hamiltonian Moment” — after Alexander Hamilton’s
In 2019, the number of resondents grew from 145 to 159 fixed income professionals, to incorporate the views of 121 institutional and 38 wholesale investors that are together responsible for managing over …
In the face of what we expect to be the deepest global recession in living memory (by far), equity markets are running with their eyes wide shut into what feels like a trap: they are focusing on policy support and
Overview: Extraordinary Times, Extraordinary Measures The key epidemiological data about the pandemic point to important, shared trends across countries amid major differences in national experiences. The pandemic has followed an exponential trajectory — although at very different rates around the
China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.
The Invesco White Paper Series – March 2020 Due to its simplicity, market-cap weighting has long been a popular means of calculating the composition of market indexes. But as an investment strategy, market-cap weighting has limitations — frequently resulting in outsized
This is not the bear market we were expecting to end the cyclical uptrend in equities and definitely not the first quarter we envisaged when we wrote our previous edition. Our job is made more difficult by the uncertainty surrounding
Macro factor summary: The coronavirus crisis has delivered a shock to the global economy that is unprecedented in size and cause. Methods of economic forecasting based on standard economic variables are not sufficient to analyze global economic growth. We have
Highlights Municipal bond prices fell during March, resulting in negative returns for the first quarter, on fears about potential economic fallout of a global pandemic. Municipals significantly underperformed US Treasuries, as Treasury yields dropped to record levels and municipal bonds
The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12
COVID-19 has pressured the global economy in an unprecedented way. What will be the lasting impacts? In order to get a full picture of the impact of this global pandemic, Invesco’s Global Market Strategy (GMS) Office has partnered with a
Environmental, social and governance (ESG) have become important considerations in mainstream investment processes. Adoption rates vary by region and by sector. Following an extended bull market, the spread of the corona virus in early 2020 and the associated containment measures
Uncommon truths Have credit spreads widened enough? We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context. This leaves us more concerned about high-yield than investment-grade but we believe
Uncommon truths Have credit spreads widened enough? We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context. This leaves us more concerned about high-yield than investment-grade but we believe
#Research on #Equities -> https://www.opiniopro.com/tag/outlook+equities/ @Opinio_Pro
"#Dollar Weakness Helps #Gold To All-Time Highs" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/vaneck/dollar-weakness-helps-gold-to-all-time-highs-2/ #us
"As the world starts to look beyond #crisis management and focus returns to non-coronavirus-related objectives, improved regulation could become ..." -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/blue-bay-asset-management/whats-the-impact-of-covid-19-on-esg-investing/ #coronavirus #esg
"The relentless run in #riskassets over the last five months finally faded a bit in early September, as the S&P 500 fell nearly 8% and the tech-heavy #NASDAQ fell 11%. This year’s returns have been heavily influenced by the …" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/09/northern-trust/an-interesting-fall/
