Back to homepage

Posts From Invesco

Does inflation travel?

Does inflation travel?

🕔10:15, 4.Aug 2022

Inflation has been a major driver behind financial market returns and we expect that to remain the case in the short term. Trade costs are a significant contributor to the final price of any good with shipping costs its most

Read Full Article
2022 Midyear Investment Outlook

2022 Midyear Investment Outlook

🕔08:03, 27.Jul 2022

Much of the world continues to move past the COVID-19 pandemic, but its remarkable effects on economies and policies remain top of mind as a new set of uncertainties enters the picture. Historic pandemic-era moves by both fiscal and monetary

Read Full Article
Cloudy with a chance of recession

Cloudy with a chance of recession

🕔10:57, 19.Jul 2022

The slump in global equities deepened in the second quarter of 2022 as concerns about a recession replaced fears of high inflation and an escalation of the war in Ukraine seemed less likely. The US Federal Reserve has maintained its

Read Full Article
Global debt review 2022

Global debt review 2022

🕔09:46, 12.Jul 2022

Global debt ratios declined in 2021 on the back of the rebound in GDP. Falling bond yields dampened the rise in debt service ratios over recent years but that is now changing. We fear the corporate debt …

Read Full Article
Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q3

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q3

🕔14:38, 21.Jun 2022

Most assets have again delivered negative returns in both local currency and USD, with the notable exception of commodities (or more precisely energy and agricultural products). That was unfortunate for us, given that we were zero-weighted in commodities (having been

Read Full Article
Why I like Chinese equities

Why I like Chinese equities

🕔14:25, 1.Jun 2022

Chinese equities have recently outperformed other regions (while bonds have done the reverse). We ask whether this is a dead-cat bounce or the start of a new trend. There are many worries about Chinese stocks but we suspect a lot

Read Full Article
Have consumers returned to spending on services?

Have consumers returned to spending on services?

🕔10:25, 17.May 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the proportion that developed world consumers spend on goods versus services. This has been reflected in the outperformance of sectors focusing on the production and selling of goods. We think that consumer spending patterns will return

Read Full Article
The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q2

The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q2

🕔17:33, 11.May 2022

The year started with central banks turning hawkish, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both of which destabilised financial markets. Many cyclical assets are now cheaper than when we last wrote and we are adding to equities within our Model

Read Full Article
The causes and course of inflation

The causes and course of inflation

🕔15:49, 10.May 2022

Recent conversations with investors reveal a lot of confusion about what causes inflation and what the future path will be. We take a look at various explanations including a Malthusian view of longterm drivers, shorter-term views of more proximate drivers

Read Full Article
A difficult balancing act

A difficult balancing act

🕔10:10, 9.May 2022

Global equities retreated in the first quarter of 2022 in the face of higher inflation and the war in Ukraine. The US Federal Reserve has become even more hawkish despite the increasing threat of a significant slowdown in economic growth.

Read Full Article
Sectors in Fed cycles

Sectors in Fed cycles

🕔16:05, 15.Mar 2022

The tragedy unfolding in the Ukraine has been the main focus for financial markets this week. The impact on global economic growth remains to be seen, but we believe that the US Federal Reserve will start tightening monetary policy by

Read Full Article
The economic and market consequences of war

The economic and market consequences of war

🕔09:55, 1.Mar 2022

We put some numbers on the effect of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We guess it could reduce global GDP by 0.5%-1.0% (while boosting inflation) but policy support may dampen that effect.  What a tragedy for the people of Ukraine. They

Read Full Article
The spectre of rising rates and the technology sector

The spectre of rising rates and the technology sector

🕔10:02, 22.Feb 2022

Equity markets started 2022 like someone running to catch a train. Investor sentiment has since turned ever more hawkish on interest rates as inflation showed no signs of moderating. The technology sector has been caught at the sharp end of

Read Full Article
Why is gold misbehaving?

Why is gold misbehaving?

🕔16:48, 8.Feb 2022

Gold has done amazingly well, considering the rise in US treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions and fears of inflation may be helping. But we suspect that without US recession it has further …

Read Full Article
Fed tightening: we favour equities and short duration

Fed tightening: we favour equities and short duration

🕔10:19, 2.Feb 2022

The Fed has told us it will soon raise rates. History suggests equities and short duration bonds will outperform over the coming months. The late start to this tightening cycle may complicate matters. So now we know – the Fed has

Read Full Article
Alternatives under the microscope

Alternatives under the microscope

🕔15:52, 24.Jan 2022

Some alternative assets performed very well in 2021, especially private equity and Bitcoin. But we think 2022 will be very different with less growth but lots of policy tightening. Hence we expect a convergence of returns but still favour cyclical

Read Full Article
The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

🕔15:56, 11.Jan 2022

Uncommon truths  It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Market sentiment is now mixed (thanks to the Fed), so our list of surprises contains something for everybody (these hypothetical predictions are our views

Read Full Article
2021 in review

2021 in review

🕔14:35, 6.Jan 2022

The Covid pandemic again dominated our thoughts in 2021. Nevertheless, cyclical assets did well (though our list of 10 surprises had mixed results). We are more cautious about 2022. A year ago, we were hopeful that vaccines would allow strong

Read Full Article
Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

🕔15:16, 14.Dec 2021

The economic recovery has been thrown into jeopardy by the emergence of the new Omicron variant of Covid-19. However, we think that it is unlikely to completely derail the cycle and should allow central banks to tighten monetary policy in

Read Full Article
Could there be a shortage of oil?

Could there be a shortage of oil?

🕔15:21, 30.Nov 2021

Could a lack of upstream investment lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices? We think lower investment was due to falling prices and believe it is now reversing. We remain wary of oil. 

Read Full Article
Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

🕔10:05, 23.Nov 2021

Given our view that 2022 will be a year of transition and that asset class returns will converge, we adopt a more balanced approach within our Model Asset Allocation, though still maintain a preference for cyclical assets. We reduce the

Read Full Article
Africa 2021 A continent of opportunity

Africa 2021 A continent of opportunity

🕔00:58, 17.Nov 2021

We believe that Africa will be the economic and investment story of this century. However, it is a continent of 54 countries, each with its own potential, pitfalls and capacity to absorb different forms of investment. The aim of this document is

Read Full Article
On corporate margins and inflation rates

On corporate margins and inflation rates

🕔16:14, 4.Nov 2021

The sharp rise in inflation rates across many economies driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages has been a major concern for investors as economies opened up after pandemicrelated lockdowns. Among other effects, this may have an impact on

Read Full Article
A transitory change in correlation

A transitory change in correlation

🕔14:30, 11.Oct 2021

Uncommon truths: Rising bond yields have recently been associated with falling equity prices (reversing the trend of this century). We think this is a temporary reversal and do not fear higher yields, unless caused by costpush inflation (we would then

Read Full Article
The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2021 Q4

The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2021 Q4

🕔14:09, 23.Sep 2021

Despite another good three months for cyclical assets, we are sticking with them within our Model Asset Allocation. We make minimal changes, with a reduction in the allocation to highyield credit (to Underweight) and a corresponding increase to equities (going

Read Full Article
Climate change revisited

Climate change revisited

🕔09:26, 24.Aug 2021

A range of emission and temperature change scenarios are examined. It is clear that technology will be key in mitigating change. However, we think large-scale adaptation could benefit infrastructure, engineering, housing and …

Read Full Article
021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

🕔14:33, 4.Aug 2021

With Covid-19 top of mind, impacting both operations and investment strategies, the impact of the ongoing pandemic is the major theme running throughout. This includes an examination of adjustments made in response to the crisis and the impact on long-term

Read Full Article
The end of the beginning?

The end of the beginning?

🕔16:26, 22.Jul 2021

Strategic Sector Selector The resilience of the rally in global equities was tested in the second quarter of 2021 by a resurgence of COVID-19 cases and more hawkish messages by the US Federal Reserve. However, markets continued to grind higher

Read Full Article
Global debt review 2021

Global debt review 2021

🕔16:35, 2.Jul 2021

Global debt ratios increased by a record amount in 2020. Half was due to rising government debt and the biggest gains were in developed countries. Falling bond yields dampened the rise in debt service ratios but that may not last,

Read Full Article
The Big Picture 2021 Q3

The Big Picture 2021 Q3

🕔11:34, 28.Jun 2021

We believe this economic cycle is in its infancy and, despite valuation concerns, are sticking with a preference for cyclical assets within our Model Asset Allocation. We make minimal changes, with a small reduction in the allocation to commodities (to

Read Full Article
Staying the course

Staying the course

🕔15:17, 19.Apr 2021

Strategic Sector Selector  Global equity markets posted strong returns in 2021 Q1 after a double-digit rise in the final quarter of last year despite a renewed rise in infection rates in Europe, South Asia and South America. We think the

Read Full Article
What can stop Biotech?

What can stop Biotech?

🕔12:47, 22.Feb 2021

The biotech sector has generated stellar returns since its inception and we view it as a strategic pillar of our model allocations. However, the growth advantage is not what it was and we fear the short-term effect of rising bond yields.

Read Full Article
Hyper Real: An Overview of Global Blockchain Industry Trends

Hyper Real: An Overview of Global Blockchain Industry Trends

🕔15:24, 3.Feb 2021

What is blockchain technology? Blockchain technology is an umbrella term covering a set of tools, methods, and processes for electronic recordkeeping between multiple participants. Blockchains are peer-to-peer (P2P) networks composed of different entities that collectively maintain and update a shared set of records.

Read Full Article
Central banks in a pickle

Central banks in a pickle

🕔14:50, 2.Feb 2021

Central banks in a pickle Uncommon truths  We think tapering is off the agenda for 2021 and believe that central banks may purchase increasing amounts of assets. That may be good for risk assets this year but we worry where

Read Full Article
2020 – the year of living dangerously

2020 – the year of living dangerously

🕔12:33, 7.Jan 2021

Uncommon truths  2020 – the year of living dangerously Our list of 10 surprises didn’t envisage the global pandemic that dominated 2020. Even so, we had some successes and cyclical assets did well. We expect that to continue in 2021,

Read Full Article
The builder’s guide to Bitcoin

The builder’s guide to Bitcoin

🕔08:08, 6.Jan 2021

Uncommon truths  Looking at global stock indices, you wouldn’t know there had been a global pandemic and recession during 2020. On the other hand, gold bears witness to the problems and Bitcoin has recently taken up the mantle. Applying our

Read Full Article
Light at the end of the tunnel

Light at the end of the tunnel

🕔11:42, 23.Nov 2020

The Big Picture – 2021 Outlook 2020 has seen defensive assets outperform cyclicals. We expect the opposite in 2021. Despite short term Covid-related risks, recent vaccine news provides valuable light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, some cyclical assets have

Read Full Article
Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

🕔11:02, 20.Nov 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020 IFI multi-sector asset allocation overview Macro factor summary: We have upgraded our growth expectations for the US and Europe and expect growth momentum to persist in 2021. We expect spare capacity to keep

Read Full Article
Invesco Global Factor Investing Study 2020

Invesco Global Factor Investing Study 2020

🕔15:21, 30.Oct 2020

Welcome to our fifth annual Global Factor Investing Study, based on an interview programme with 238 factor investors. This study incorporates the views of 138 institutional investors and 100 wholesale investors that are together responsible for managing over US$25.4 trillion

Read Full Article
Finding the opportunity in ESG

Finding the opportunity in ESG

🕔09:54, 30.Sep 2020

ESG disclosures: the bedrock of the sustainable finance agenda At Invesco, we consider environmental, social and governance issues (ESG) not only as financially material considerations but a core part of long-term value creation. And we are not alone- asset managers

Read Full Article
Does it matter who wins the US election?

Does it matter who wins the US election?

🕔11:01, 28.Sep 2020

Uncommon truths  I have long expected Joe Biden to be elected as the next president of the US. I believe the stock market implications are less than many fear but not all sectors will be impacted in the same way.

Read Full Article
What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

🕔09:58, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

Read Full Article
Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

🕔10:00, 3.Sep 2020

Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …

Read Full Article
Is China over-investing?

Is China over-investing?

🕔11:05, 1.Sep 2020

Uncommon truths  China is often accused of over-investing and its capital productivity has fallen. However, marginal efficiency of capital is positive and return on equity is in the middle of the developed comparator range. We recently wrote that China’s economy

Read Full Article
Sins of omission: managing omission risk in discretionary strategies

Sins of omission: managing omission risk in discretionary strategies

🕔08:02, 28.Aug 2020

Persistent positive skew in the distribution of returns across index constituents suggests that a successful active equity management program must include a process to mitigate omission risk – i.e. the opportunity cost of missing out highreturning stocks that buoy average

Read Full Article
How far from normal?

How far from normal?

🕔11:44, 24.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths  Covid-19 has not gone away, shutdowns are being selectively reintroduced and we suspect the recovery becomes more difficult from here. We maintain a diversified model asset allocation.  We have been living with Covid-19 for more than six months

Read Full Article
2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

🕔11:43, 20.Aug 2020

Strategic Perspective. It is difficult to imagine that only three months ago we were writing about riding out the first global recession, record levels of unemployment and declines in earnings not seen during any of our lifetimes. This historic decline

Read Full Article
US jobless claims and vaccine developments bring positive news

US jobless claims and vaccine developments bring positive news

🕔09:47, 20.Aug 2020

Last week, I laid out five things to watch in the month of August. Over the past seven days, we’ve seen new developments in each one. This week, I offer a quick update to each of those five issues, and

Read Full Article
Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights

🕔15:12, 19.Aug 2020

Evaluating the four P's (Pandemic, Policy, Pricing and Portfolios)  The first half of this year has been dominated by the spreading coronavirus pandemic and the policy response to it. The latter has been overwhelming; both monetary and fiscal policy are

Read Full Article
Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

🕔15:11, 14.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no

Read Full Article

SEARCH