Just as headwinds from trade policy were beginning to dissipate, the outbreak of COVID19 has pushed the global economy into recession. The speed and depth of the ‘sudden stop’ in the economy is unprecedented, but should the virus be contained,
Man vs Nature: what the government can and cannot fix There are things the government can try and fix during a pandemic and other things which it can’t. In this note we highlight some of what we have added to
This morning, initial claims for unemployment insurance surged to the highest level ever. Initial claims came in at 3,283,000, spiking from a slightly revised 282,000 last week. They also exceeded the prior peak of 695,000 reached in October 1982, and
In the early hours of this morning, the U.S. Senate passed a 2.2 trillion USD stimulus bill to combat the devastating impact of COVID-19 and social distancing on the U.S. economy. These measures cannot prevent the economy from falling into
What has the Fed done?The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) has pulled out its alphabet bazooka in an effort to ensure sufficient liquidity and the smooth functioning of financial markets, while also providing credit to businesses that are affected by the
The Federal Reserve keeps at it: New supportive actions this week The Federal Reserve (Fed) on Monday announced new programs, with total buying power of USD300 billion, and enhanced existing ones to help support the economy and guide the markets
LATEST INSIGHTS TO STAY ON TOP OF THE MARKETSCoronavirus research compilation Michael Cembalest presents his latest research on COVID-19, the U.S. election and other current events causing market volatility. Continue reading Shock, crisis, rinse, repeat Bob Michele, Global CIO and
Eye on the Market: John Stuart Mill and the road from ruin to recovery First, here’s what we’ve added to our online compilation of coronavirus materials which we continuously revise to reflect the latest economic, market and epidemiological information: The
Dual shocks from COVID-19 and falling oil prices have hit the global economy. The key concern now is that significant dislocation in financial markets ricochets back onto the real economy, raising risks for the outlook. At the margin, we see
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
This compilation includes all of our research to-date on the coronavirus, and will be updated continually as the pandemic continues. The high frequency charts on infection, mortality, economic and market data will be updated as data becomes available; the red
The volatility across markets has created considerable anxiety amongst investors trying to gauge the effectiveness of the healthcare response + the monetary response + the fiscal response. Given how varied the responses are by region and country, this may be
The spread of the coronavirus and its impact on global economic activity is increasingly troubling investors. Trying to predict the final outcome is a fool’s errand. Instead, in this piece we provide a framework for tracking the infection rates globally,
In February, the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak replaced trade as the main focus for the markets. Fears of near-term negative effects on Chinese and global growth, together with the expectation that central banks around the globe will provide further monetary policy
Eye on the Market: Coronavirus (COVID-19) research compilation Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, has compiled his extensive research on coronavirus. The compilation includes infection, mortality, economic, and market research to date. Continue Reading
Today the UK monetary and fiscal authorities provided a sizeable, coordinated package of measures to support the economy in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak. Such clear coordination between the Governor of the Bank of England and Chancellor of the
Today the UK monetary and fiscal authorities provided a sizeable, coordinated package of measures to support the economy in the face of the COVID-19 outbreak. Such clear coordination between the Governor of the Bank of England and Chancellor of the
Eye on the Market: The pandemic gap I know that I just wrote to you all last week, but a lot of data is being thrown around on the coronavirus and most of it requires very careful analysis before drawing
You have seen all of this before. If you have been in the business since 2008, you’ll understand that the Federal Reserve’s shock-driven inter-meeting rate cut of 50 basis points validates that we are officially in crisis mode. The last
An update on the Democratic Primary: Confounding almost every forecast we saw last week, Senator Biden appears to have emerged from Super Tuesday with a sizeable delegate lead. Why might the night have turned out so differently from what was
IN BRIEF The euro has been an attractive funding currency for some time due to negative yields in the eurozone, low volatility in currency markets and the behaviour of the currency as more of a “risk asset” than “safe haven”.
IN BRIEF As the value factor is in the midst of one of its most severe drawdowns, we explain why we think it is cyclical, not structural. It matters greatly whether a value factor is constructed across or within sectors.
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Our long-term stewardship priorities are those we consider most material to the financial returns we deliver and consistent with our commitment on sustainable investing. For each priority, we have defined medium-term themes on which to focus our engagement. Governance We
Which financial assets are well positioned and which ones are at risk as policy-makers brace for major COVID-19-induced demand shocks? Find out more in this piece.
‘Whatever it takes’: Fiscal Edition -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/ubp/whatever-it-takes-fiscal-edition/ #CentralBanks #china #coronavirus #credit #crisis #ECB #fiscalpolicy #fomc #COVID19 via
@UBP_Group
Middle Market Direct Lending: Benefits of Pursuing Both Sponsored and Non-Sponsored Transactions -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/franklin-templeton/middle-market-direct-lending-benefits-of-pursuing-both-sponsored-and-non-sponsored-transac/ #Banks #Credit #lending via
@FTI_Global
Eye on the Market: Man vs Nature -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/jp-morgan/eye-on-the-market-man-vs-nature/ #centralbanks #Fed #fomc #government via
@jpmorgan
@JPMorganAM
Can the world economy “afford” this scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus? -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/opiniopro-selection/can-the-world-economy-afford-this-scale-of-fiscal-and-monetary-stimulus/ #CentralBanks #coronavirus #FED #fiscalpolicy #fomc #inflation #COVID19 via
@Opinio_Pro
