As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
Along with imposing a terrible human toll, the Russia-Ukraine war is also reversing a powerful trend many of us have taken for granted: globalization. I’m pleased to introduce the latest publication from our Strategic Investment Advisory Group, The lifeboat economy:
Our central scenario is that we avoid a severe global downturn thanks in large part to fiscal support, and a more gradual pace of tightening by the central banks in the second half of the year. With major markets having
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The Elephants in the Room. We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration forecasts. We
In brief Our proprietary analysis of trends among the 100 largest corporate pensions by assets found that the 2021 headline funded status is finally approaching full funding 13 years after the global financial crisis (GFC), with more than 70% of
Global Asset Allocation Views In brief Tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine, and lingering inflation combine to put the brakes on global growth. We do not expect a global recession in 2022 but see European growth slowing to near
There are a lot of things going on this morning: the S&P 500 is down 1.7%, European stocks are down 4%-5%, Russian stocks are down 35%, the Ruble plummeted and then rebounded when the Russian central bank announced interventions, Brent/WTI
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In our latest analysis, we look at innovation: its historical returns to investors, and at four sectors whose innovations we believe will stand the test of time. We conclude with history on innovation’s victims, and how long investors have to
As often occurs in market corrections, the current selloff has inspired much speculation, but there remains just one incontrovertible fact: After delivering 27% returns in 2021, the S&P 500 is down 7% year to date in 2022. Market participants offer
2022 Global Alternatives Outlook: It’s all a matter of perspective. As we enter 2022, there is a real risk of missing the forest for the trees. Up close, the “trees” in the 2022 outlook are clear. Consumers will keep spending.
These superheroes all contribute in their own way to a rise in prices, wages, economic growth and asset prices. See inside cover for details. In this year’s Outlook, we look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Global Asset Allocation Views – 1Q 2022: It is too early to say with certainty how and when the pandemic will finally retreat. Rapid deployment of restrictions in Europe suggests we are not there yet. But at the same time,
As of November 30, 2021
Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.
Fading scars, enduring policies IN BRIEF Almost two years after the pandemic struck, the global economic recovery has strong momentum, kicked off by huge fiscal and monetary stimulus and now sustained by a robust capex cycle and solid household balance
Hibernation, termination or stabilization? IN BRIEF U.S. pension investors have been actively de-risking their defined benefit plans since the global financial crisis, successfully reducing pension funding volatility to manageable levels. Further movement of portfolios toward long duration fixed income will
This November sees the UK play host to COP26 – the 26th Conference of Parties – where global leaders from almost 200 nations will come together and discuss climate objectives and, more importantly, revisit the commitments made as part of
Having outperformed other regional stock markets for much of the pandemic, Chinese stocks have fallen sharply over the past few months (EXHIBIT 1). Concerns around the Chinese economy slowing were blamed for the initial move, but more recent declines have
Corporate profits continue to rebound at a tremendous pace and will comfortably exceed previous record levels this year. One year after the pandemic hit, we took a look at how our forecasts have changed. We expected an acceleration of existing
IN BRIEF Traditional investment approaches are unlikely to meet investors’ long-term goals in the coming years. Simply taking on more market risk will not suffice. There’s no single silver bullet here. Yet investors can reach a 7% return target by
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this
Global Asset Allocation Views: High frequency data suggest that economic activity is surging, aggregate household balance sheets are in good health, and economic output in developed markets is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 3Q21. The question, perhaps, might be
As a result of COVID, we all now live in an age of uncertainty where having choices is important for our well-being, both financially and emotionally. Financial independence gives us choices and without these we will be trapped in unfulfilling
The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy
The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a
Defined Benefit Pension Trends J.P. Morgan Asset Management Strategy & Analytics | March 2021
Q1 2021
Monetary and fiscal coordination has supported economic activity in 2020. As we discuss in our Investment Outlook 2021: Bridge over troubled waters, governments and central banks have proved pivotal in helping economies to bridge the gap caused by the virus.
The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at alltime highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of
2021 | 25th annual edition Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios A global pandemic can shift our perspective, making it more difficult to focus on the future. But, of course, this is the essential task of any long-term investor, regardless
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios The coronavirus pandemic has dominated news flow throughout 2020. Looking forward, even after the first acute phase of the pandemic has passed, its imprint on our economy and indeed on the very fabric of our
In the final quarter of this year, investors are likely to learn the answers to three pivotal questions for markets. First, we are likely to hear the results of vaccine trials. Second, we will learn the results of the US
Europe | | 4Q 2020 As of 30 September 2020
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report IN BRIEF From a portfolio perspective, exposure to tech winners in U.S. equities is not a free lunch. The same growth stories that prompted outsize U.S. equity returns in recent years and a faster recovery
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report Global markets and multi-asset portfolios In late August, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation because of health problems. Abe had served for nearly eight years, with his administration lending stability to Japanese politics
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios The rebound in global equities has been quite dramatic, but so too has been the recovery in the market pricing of inflation, especially in the U.S. Since March, 10-year U.S. CPI swaps and Treasury inflation
Market Review It’s been a very strong quarter for equities and credit as central banks and governments provided enormous amounts of stimulus and economies started to reopen. Despite the strong rebound in risk …
US 3Q 2020, As of June 30, 2020
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report China has been leading other major emerging market (EM) equity markets, staging a strong recovery from March’s lows. China’s CSI 300 Index (of onshore stocks traded in Shenzhen and Shanghai) has more than fully recovered
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios This recession will forever be remembered as one of the most rapid and shocking economic slowdowns on record. The question at the forefront of asset allocation decisions is whether the recovery will be equally distinctive
The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would affect the economy. Volatility
A changed economic and market environment leads us to an off-cycle update of our asset allocation views, typically published after our quarterly Strategy Summits. Overall, our views reflect a moderately greater risk tolerance and a recognition that central banks are
After the severe shock in March, markets rebounded strongly in April. COVID-19 continued to spread globally, but some countries saw daily new infection rates start to fall and are now planning to gradually reopen their economies. Governments and central banks
