In the "Monthly Market Review" for August 2023, market dynamics reflected heightened volatility due to various geopolitical and economic influences. Notably, China's property market distress and the corresponding weak macroeconomic indicators have caused significant tremors. As a direct consequence, the
Global economic trends have been reflecting a distinctive surge, but Japan’s story stands out. Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Report offers an in-depth analysis into the reflationary dynamics of Japan, addressing the transformative potential in the country's economy and financial market. The
In "Continued progress through partnership", the narrative unveils the progress of Defined Contribution (DC) Plan Sponsors over a tumultuous period, navigating the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Great Resignation, inflation surges, market volatility, and legislative shifts such as the
In "Guide to the Markets," JP Morgan provides an insightful visual exploration of global macroeconomic trends and data. These charts offer a snapshot of the world's economic landscape, covering a wide array of factors from GDP growth rates and inflation
JP Morgan provides a detailed analysis of the global economy and the investment landscape in the report "2023 Mid-Year Investment Outlook". The document highlights a likely deceleration in the U.S. economy coupled with decreased inflation through late 2023 and 2024.
The profound disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic presented a range of socio-economic shocks, transforming work patterns, causing supply chain interruptions, and triggering surges in inflation. The essay above embarks on an insightful journey to distinguish between temporary and more lasting
The past few tumultuous years, marked by the COVID pandemic and its ensuing societal upheaval, have precipitated significant economic shifts. In JP Morgan's insightful analysis, it explores these events in retrospect, delineating the shocks that have subsided, those currently subsiding,
JP Morgan’s research offers an incisive look into the profound shockwaves the COVID-19 pandemic sent through the global economy. The crises unfolded in multiple dimensions – a global health catastrophe, cities under lockdown, disrupted supply chains, and a migration slowdown.
In "Debt Ceiling Outlook," J.P.Morgan provides a comprehensive explanation of the debt ceiling or limit, which caps the amount the federal government is authorized to borrow to fulfill its financial obligations. The debt limit doesn't sanction new spending but funds
The "Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Report: Global markets and multi-asset portfolios" by JP Morgan Asset Management presents a cautious global economic outlook amidst recession risks and financial sector stress. While the current data suggests a subtrend global growth and easing inflation
Guide to the Markets The text above presents a comprehensive economic and market analysis by the Global Market Insights Strategy Team, led by notable experts such as Nimish Vyas, Vincent Juvyns, and Tilmann Galler. It dives into an array of
In the first quarter of 2023, global growth generally surpassed expectations, with the US and European composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) business surveys highlighting the rebound. Factors such as lower energy and oil prices, along with the reopening of China,
In J.P. Morgan's extensive 97-page report, "Guide To the Markets," the main theme revolves around a thorough examination of the global economy, equities, and fixed income. This comprehensive analysis provides valuable insights into the current state of the market and
The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised concerns about the investment outlook, highlighting three major problems. Firstly, the banks had a narrow depositor base with a large percentage of uninsured deposits, which was concentrated in troubled
Renewable energy has become a popular choice in recent years due to its potential to reduce carbon emissions and promote sustainability. However, the growth of renewables also poses new challenges and raises questions about their reliability and effectiveness. This year's
Following a sharp sell-off in bonds over the course of 2022, this piece uses five charts from the Guide to the Markets to explain why we now see some of the most exciting opportunities in fixed income in over a
Is it time to reopen DB pension plans—or at least stop closing and freezing them? In brief In the U.S., corporate sponsors of private defined benefit (DB) pension plans seem to have developed a collective blind spot about the potential
The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins. It was nice while it lasted. The tattered posters on the cover show the remnants of some equity market catalysts
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
Guide to the markets
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors and strategists from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of
What do our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions mean for defined contribution plans? Our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which forecast asset class returns over a 10- to 15-year horizon, suggest that public markets today offer the best potential long-term returns
The U.S. economy: Looking beyond the cycle 2022 turned out to be another very difficult year. Widespread vaccination and less lethal strains of COVID-19 led to lower fatality rates, allowing most pandemic-weary populations around the world to move back toward
As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
Along with imposing a terrible human toll, the Russia-Ukraine war is also reversing a powerful trend many of us have taken for granted: globalization. I’m pleased to introduce the latest publication from our Strategic Investment Advisory Group, The lifeboat economy:
Our central scenario is that we avoid a severe global downturn thanks in large part to fiscal support, and a more gradual pace of tightening by the central banks in the second half of the year. With major markets having
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The Elephants in the Room. We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestration forecasts. We
In brief Our proprietary analysis of trends among the 100 largest corporate pensions by assets found that the 2021 headline funded status is finally approaching full funding 13 years after the global financial crisis (GFC), with more than 70% of
Global Asset Allocation Views In brief Tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine, and lingering inflation combine to put the brakes on global growth. We do not expect a global recession in 2022 but see European growth slowing to near
There are a lot of things going on this morning: the S&P 500 is down 1.7%, European stocks are down 4%-5%, Russian stocks are down 35%, the Ruble plummeted and then rebounded when the Russian central bank announced interventions, Brent/WTI
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In our latest analysis, we look at innovation: its historical returns to investors, and at four sectors whose innovations we believe will stand the test of time. We conclude with history on innovation’s victims, and how long investors have to
As often occurs in market corrections, the current selloff has inspired much speculation, but there remains just one incontrovertible fact: After delivering 27% returns in 2021, the S&P 500 is down 7% year to date in 2022. Market participants offer
2022 Global Alternatives Outlook: It’s all a matter of perspective. As we enter 2022, there is a real risk of missing the forest for the trees. Up close, the “trees” in the 2022 outlook are clear. Consumers will keep spending.
These superheroes all contribute in their own way to a rise in prices, wages, economic growth and asset prices. See inside cover for details. In this year’s Outlook, we look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Global Asset Allocation Views – 1Q 2022: It is too early to say with certainty how and when the pandemic will finally retreat. Rapid deployment of restrictions in Europe suggests we are not there yet. But at the same time,
As of November 30, 2021
Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.
Fading scars, enduring policies IN BRIEF Almost two years after the pandemic struck, the global economic recovery has strong momentum, kicked off by huge fiscal and monetary stimulus and now sustained by a robust capex cycle and solid household balance
Hibernation, termination or stabilization? IN BRIEF U.S. pension investors have been actively de-risking their defined benefit plans since the global financial crisis, successfully reducing pension funding volatility to manageable levels. Further movement of portfolios toward long duration fixed income will
This November sees the UK play host to COP26 – the 26th Conference of Parties – where global leaders from almost 200 nations will come together and discuss climate objectives and, more importantly, revisit the commitments made as part of
Having outperformed other regional stock markets for much of the pandemic, Chinese stocks have fallen sharply over the past few months (EXHIBIT 1). Concerns around the Chinese economy slowing were blamed for the initial move, but more recent declines have
Corporate profits continue to rebound at a tremendous pace and will comfortably exceed previous record levels this year. One year after the pandemic hit, we took a look at how our forecasts have changed. We expected an acceleration of existing
IN BRIEF Traditional investment approaches are unlikely to meet investors’ long-term goals in the coming years. Simply taking on more market risk will not suffice. There’s no single silver bullet here. Yet investors can reach a 7% return target by
