These superheroes all contribute in their own way to a rise in prices, wages, economic growth and asset prices. See inside cover for details. In this year’s Outlook, we look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Global Asset Allocation Views – 1Q 2022: It is too early to say with certainty how and when the pandemic will finally retreat. Rapid deployment of restrictions in Europe suggests we are not there yet. But at the same time,
As of November 30, 2021
Uncertainty surrounding the effect of the end of the UK furlough scheme on unemployment had been top of the Bank of England’s (BoE) list of economic concerns, but last week’s jobs data provided reasons to be optimistic on this front.
Fading scars, enduring policies IN BRIEF Almost two years after the pandemic struck, the global economic recovery has strong momentum, kicked off by huge fiscal and monetary stimulus and now sustained by a robust capex cycle and solid household balance
Hibernation, termination or stabilization? IN BRIEF U.S. pension investors have been actively de-risking their defined benefit plans since the global financial crisis, successfully reducing pension funding volatility to manageable levels. Further movement of portfolios toward long duration fixed income will
This November sees the UK play host to COP26 – the 26th Conference of Parties – where global leaders from almost 200 nations will come together and discuss climate objectives and, more importantly, revisit the commitments made as part of
Having outperformed other regional stock markets for much of the pandemic, Chinese stocks have fallen sharply over the past few months (EXHIBIT 1). Concerns around the Chinese economy slowing were blamed for the initial move, but more recent declines have
Corporate profits continue to rebound at a tremendous pace and will comfortably exceed previous record levels this year. One year after the pandemic hit, we took a look at how our forecasts have changed. We expected an acceleration of existing
IN BRIEF Traditional investment approaches are unlikely to meet investors’ long-term goals in the coming years. Simply taking on more market risk will not suffice. There’s no single silver bullet here. Yet investors can reach a 7% return target by
Every two years, we take a close look at the performance of the private equity industry given its rising share of institutional and individual portfolios. Our findings this year: the private equity industry is still outperforming public equity, but this
Global Asset Allocation Views: High frequency data suggest that economic activity is surging, aggregate household balance sheets are in good health, and economic output in developed markets is expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels by 3Q21. The question, perhaps, might be
As a result of COVID, we all now live in an age of uncertainty where having choices is important for our well-being, both financially and emotionally. Financial independence gives us choices and without these we will be trapped in unfulfilling
The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy
The Weekly Brief: Net zero commitments are hitting the headlines, following President Biden’s recent pledge to cut US greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in half by 2030. In total, 58 countries, representing 54% of global GHG emissions, have now communicated a
Defined Benefit Pension Trends J.P. Morgan Asset Management Strategy & Analytics | March 2021
Q1 2021
Monetary and fiscal coordination has supported economic activity in 2020. As we discuss in our Investment Outlook 2021: Bridge over troubled waters, governments and central banks have proved pivotal in helping economies to bridge the gap caused by the virus.
The Armageddonists were not rescued from underperformance purgatory by COVID, and markets are at alltime highs again with prospects for further gains in 2021. However, I can think of something that could rescue them, at least temporarily: the risk of
2021 | 25th annual edition Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios A global pandemic can shift our perspective, making it more difficult to focus on the future. But, of course, this is the essential task of any long-term investor, regardless
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios The coronavirus pandemic has dominated news flow throughout 2020. Looking forward, even after the first acute phase of the pandemic has passed, its imprint on our economy and indeed on the very fabric of our
In the final quarter of this year, investors are likely to learn the answers to three pivotal questions for markets. First, we are likely to hear the results of vaccine trials. Second, we will learn the results of the US
Europe | | 4Q 2020 As of 30 September 2020
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report IN BRIEF From a portfolio perspective, exposure to tech winners in U.S. equities is not a free lunch. The same growth stories that prompted outsize U.S. equity returns in recent years and a faster recovery
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report Global markets and multi-asset portfolios In late August, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation because of health problems. Abe had served for nearly eight years, with his administration lending stability to Japanese politics
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios The rebound in global equities has been quite dramatic, but so too has been the recovery in the market pricing of inflation, especially in the U.S. Since March, 10-year U.S. CPI swaps and Treasury inflation
Market Review It’s been a very strong quarter for equities and credit as central banks and governments provided enormous amounts of stimulus and economies started to reopen. Despite the strong rebound in risk …
US 3Q 2020, As of June 30, 2020
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report China has been leading other major emerging market (EM) equity markets, staging a strong recovery from March’s lows. China’s CSI 300 Index (of onshore stocks traded in Shenzhen and Shanghai) has more than fully recovered
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios This recession will forever be remembered as one of the most rapid and shocking economic slowdowns on record. The question at the forefront of asset allocation decisions is whether the recovery will be equally distinctive
The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would affect the economy. Volatility
A changed economic and market environment leads us to an off-cycle update of our asset allocation views, typically published after our quarterly Strategy Summits. Overall, our views reflect a moderately greater risk tolerance and a recognition that central banks are
After the severe shock in March, markets rebounded strongly in April. COVID-19 continued to spread globally, but some countries saw daily new infection rates start to fall and are now planning to gradually reopen their economies. Governments and central banks
Is the earnings downgrade cycle already nearly over? Following the shortest bear market in history (from February 19 to March 23), equities have staged a massive rally. This has left investors wondering whether markets have bottomed or will instead revisit
Portfolio Insights Following the shortest bear market in history (from February 19 to March 23), equities have staged a massive rally. This has left investors wondering whether markets have bottomed or will instead revisit their March lows. To gain confidence
Amid the depths of a global COVID-19 pandemic and recession, global equities rebounded dramatically over the past few weeks, with the S&P 500 retracing more than half of its sharp 35% plunge. Much of that rebound reflects the anticipation and
1Q20 earnings: Virus oddity Global stock markets saw an unprecedented level of volatility in March, as investors attempted to discern how the rapid spread of COVID-19 would aect the economy and corporate profits. The past few weeks have seen a
Since the coronavirus shock began, we have focused on several broad categories within the information flow: bank funding and market operational stress; the policy response; messages from economic data; and, most importantly, the outlook for the virus itself. Following their
Quarantine measures to tackle the COVID-19 coronavirus outbreak pushed down global economic activity in March. We expect further steep declines through April and May, leading to a sharp plunge in second-quarter activity data. Beyond that, however, thoughts will turn to
Market Insights Powerpoint by JP Morgan Asset Management
Bond markets took a roller coaster ride over the last month. The extreme volatility reflected illiquid conditions as dealers worked from home; regulatory pressure weighing on dealer balance sheets; de-risking in risk-parity funds; and profit taking in fixed income to
Portfolio Insights In the history of financial markets, there has never been a quarter like Q1 2020. As the global outbreak of COVID-19 gathered force, various forms of lockdowns and quarantines ensued, causing risk assets to plummet at an unprecedented
Insights and implications from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit We are in a time of extreme volatility and uncertainty. New information, policy announcements and data are becoming available every day. As we navigate this crisis, we expect to increase the
This quarter has not been an easy one for most investors. While it was already clear that we were in the later stages of the economic cycle, nobody could have predicted at the start of this year that large parts
