As it has been clearly communicated by ECB policymakers in recent weeks, the central bank will hike by 50bp in its March meeting, taking its main refinancing rate to 3.5%. Moreover, President Lagarde will likely signal another large hike in
Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to strong buffers, such as still present excess savings
Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to
Actieve fondsen, duurzame beleggingen en private assets zullen volgens fondsselecteurs 2023 domineren. De inflatie blijft een primaire zorg voor professionele fondsselecteurs over de hele wereld, op de voet gevolgd door de rente en beleid centrale banken.
While the Eurozone’s headline inflation has been slowing for two consecutive months, largely driven by negative energy base-effects, the region’s core inflation has yet to show any convincing signs of turning back down. Coming in at 5.2% year-over-year in December,
Natixis Investment Managers Solutions | Global Market Strategy: Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to
After the Gold Rush Institutional investors forced to dig deep for opportunity as they brace for inflation or stagflation in post-pandemic markets. After seeming to recover from the pandemic in 2021, the global economy relapsed into what may be classified as a
Institutionele beleggers* over de hele wereld gaan richting 2023 met een sombere kijk op de economie en gemengde vooruitzichten voor de markten. Ze verwachten volgend jaar nog hogere rente, inflatie en volatiliteit, zo blijkt uit onderzoek van Natixis Investment Managers
Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors
The investment lexicon is currently dominated by inflation and recession. But what could these terms – so readily used by investors and their advisors – actually …
The Federal Reserve did not surprise and raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.5%, referring to high inflation as its primary concern1 . A strong labour market supported a hawkish tone overall
While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The
The chance to see a positive resolution between Russia and Ukraine has continued to decline. Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tension appear to be the new reality – so market participants will just have to get used to it. Unlike in recent
March has been a month of multiple material developments. Not only the rapid victory envisioned by President Putin did not occur, but the possibilities for a long-lasting conflict have increased. The military stalemate and the dislocation of the political equilibriums
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, more than three decades ago, the NATO had tried to encourage dialogue with Russia. But, since 2014—when the previous severe political crisis between Ukraine and Russia took place, most of the cooperation efforts
After deploying a military contingent of nearly 180,000 soldiers around Ukraine's borders, President Putin has considerably toughened the tone towards Kiev, accusing the Ukrainian authorities of wanting to join NATO and of posing a threat to Russia's security. On February
US inflation in January surprised once again to the upside, with the headline and core figures jumping 7.5% and 6% year-over-year, respectively. However, we note that, although these prints are the largest since 1982 and, thus, do worry market participants,
From pandemic to endemic IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases
We believe that inflation prints will continue to come out high for some time. The gap between production and consumer price indices has widened, particularly in Europe, and supply chain disruptions have not peaked yet. Business leaders are becomingincreasingly wary
In positioning portfolios for the unknowns ahead in 2022, institutional teams are watching five key themes that will shape portfolio strategy: Central banks hold the keys to investment success. Covid is no longer the greatest threat to growth. The hunt
IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets
What can we overreact to today? Guess we know the answer to that one. We entered the weekend with investors looking ahead to this week’s Fed meeting and policy decision on Wednesday, plus a full slate …
These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in
This month delivered a surprise from the Federal Reserve, which appeared more hawkish due to the shift in the dot plots. However, after listening to Chairman Powell speak, we believe that little has actually changed. Yes, the Fed has an
News surrounding the pandemic has steadily improved this month, with cases dropping sharply across the US and Europe, and retreating in India. As such, confidence in reopening timetables is increasing, with global growth expectations growing in tandem. More and more
While the attractiveness of emerging markets in the longer term isn’t in question, a number of obstacles could stop them from outperforming in the coming months. Covid reality Throughout last year, many EMs handled the pandemic much better than the
After a short breather at the end of January, the reflation trade is back. Bond yields have jumped, with 10-year Treasury yields rising 33 basis points and 10- year German Bunds climbing 22 basis points since the beginning of February.
Perspectives Writing a year-ahead outlook is always challenging, but writing it in the middle of a global pandemic takes that definition to the extreme. Nonetheless, as we look to 2021, we find ourselves optimistic again, despite the tough year and
