Manager Point of View The US equity market is sometimes referred to as the most efficient and over-researched market in the world. It’s an argument that some have linked to the reduced preference for active investing, judging the S&P 500
Perspectives Looking at recent economic data releases, it appears that the worst of the crisis is now behind us. Indeed, activity re-started in May and has been picking up since with the gradual reopening of economies. However, while encouraging, the
Perspectives Markets continue to focus on reopening plans and future growth We choose to remain cautious for now, though we believe that downside risks have become more limited We remain constructive on the medium term and look to build positions
As outlined in our previous “Thematics Insights”, we think it makes sense to dive a little deeper into the economics of a subscription and its real value. We have already identified several reasons why both consumers and businesses are subscribing
After an unprecedented sell-off in March, April was characterised by optimism as equity markets recuperated more than 50% of their losses and many indices are now in new bull markets (up 20%). While plenty of questions –and risks – remain,
23 April 2020 A reprieve in oil markets led to a reprieve in equity markets, which rebounded 1.5% in Europe and 2.3% in the US after two negative days. WTI prices bounced to USD15 per barrel and Brent recovered to
While we maintain a constructive medium-term view for now, we remain cautious on risk assets until we see a peak in cases. Into the unknown While we are in the throes of an unprecedented health crisis, leading to an unprecedented
What we’re watching? We continue to monitor containment efforts, as more countries are following China’s lead (sort of), but fiscal support is what is most needed to reassure markets. We will closely look at high frequency data to see how
IN SHORT With COVID-19 cases falling in China, but rising elsewhere, the impact on growth could go beyond Q1. Markets are likely to continue to question how big an impact on global growth should be expected, and what is priced
Questions amid a constructive backdrop The year started where 2019 left off, with ongoing improvements in growth and buoyant markets. Equities took headlines in stride when the US killed an Iranian general with a drone strike and they have so
Is it different this time? A value investor usually requires a substantial price discount at the company’s intrinsic value. But the latter exceeds the mere accounting value of its tangible assets. Key Takeaways: • The core principles of Value Investing have
We strongly disagree with the assessment that the US and Europe are heading to a recession. The macro is still running slightly above potential in the US and in Europe. There is not enough leverage from households, a necessary condition
IN SHORT Questions surround the coronavirus outbreak, with an impact expected on Q1 data, especially in China. Markets have proven mostly resilient so far, but short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated. We maintain a more constructive view for the
It is likely that the composition of tomorrows stock market indices will look very different than they do today. In the years to come, there’ll be less demand for fossil fuels, continued demographic change and ever more scrutiny of environmental, social and
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
2020 Institutional Outlook Executive Overview Despite big gains for stocks and bonds during 2019, institutional investors are worried that stalled trade talks, slow global growth, and low yields could hurt portfolio performance in 2020. But even as they see a
Geopolitical détente reduces uncertainty Our outlook for 2020 is relatively optimistic, predicated on the ongoing improvement in recent geopolitical developments – or at least a lack of deterioration thereof. In our view, the US-China trade war remains the single most
Low rates inflate liabilities, but regulation prevents insurers from pursuing alternatives A decade of ultra-low interest rates has inflated institutional liabilities and widened the duration mismatch for insurers across the globe. Desperate for alpha, investment teams are turning to private
Thematic equity investing focuses on markets that are growing faster than the broader global economy due to a range of long-term, secular growth drivers. It seeks out businesses that will be at the forefront of long-term growth themes – Safety,
In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the
Recent improvements in geopolitical tensions carried into October to see optimism spread across regions and sectors. Indeed, the trade truce between the US and China continues, with encouraging news that a “phase one” deal is on track, to be potentially
An in-depth assessment of welfare in retirement around the world Ensuring retirement security is a challenge facing every country around the globe. Traditionally, it is a problem viewed through a financial lens with the discussion focused on personal, employer, and
Emerging markets are a lot less emerging than they used to be. A more integrated global economy means that the world has become smaller. Investors and managers no longer suffer from limited visibility into markets, and the transparency around the
Perspectives The biggest market drivers remain trade and central banks. The dichotomy we have been witnessing with both equities and bonds rallying continues, as expectations for easing and growth concerns support fixed income, while supportive central banks and a welcome
What do Apple, Amsterdam’s Royal Schiphol Airport, and the Seychelles have in common? They are all part of a growing number of corporations and governments worldwide who are taking a greener route to issue bonds to fund projects. In fact,
Global Survey of Individual Investors – Executive Overview The volatility at the end of 2018 was a wake-up call for individual investors. On the heels of the longest running bull market in history, the final three months of last year
Allocation Perspective Stocks have rallied this year – MSCI ACWI is up 17% from its late December low – despite lackluster economic growth outside the US. Manufacturing PMIs have fallen to 47.6 in Germany, to 48.9 in Japan, and an
Allocation Perspective Stocks have rallied this year – MSCI ACWI is up 17% from its late December low – despite lackluster economic growth outside the US. Manufacturing PMIs have fallen to 47.6 in Germany, to 48.9 in Japan, and an
De Federal Reserve (Fed) is nog niet klaar met het verhogen van de rente en de groei in China koelt verder af. Dus komt het voor obligatiebeleggers voor een belangrijk deel aan op landenselectie. Mexico is in dat opzicht nu
Key Points US growth hit 4.1%qa in 2Q18 Strong US earnings season but market slams negative surprises Fed stance unchanged this week, BoE to hike rates Short stance on Treasuries, neutral on Bunds Flows return to credit, emerging markets
Allocation Perspective The United States is ramping up its trade war against China (in technology) and against their European allies and NAFTA partners (Mexico and Canada). The escalation in Sino-American tensions could last at least until mid-term elections in November.
Fed raises rates, upgrades inflation outlook Credit spreads widen as equity markets plunged last week Neutral stance on rates as quarter end nears Spain’s rating upgraded to Aby S&P
Volatile bond markets ahead of Fed meeting Tensions in short-term USD funding markets Neutral duration stance in both T-note, Bund space Moody’s maintains Italy’s rating, despite political stalemate
US growth robust but imbalances grow US job growth at 313k in February ECB amends policy commitment, rules out QE increase Neutral duration stance in both euro area and the US Italian BTPs ignore political stalemate
US authorities’ move to massive fiscal stimulus against backdrop of full employment points to dangerous overheating for the US economy in 2018. Complacent reaction from the Fed: faced with the prospects of an investment boom from tax incentives and deregulation,
Abstract We assess the value added of a multi-factor portfolio from a performance-agnostic point of view. First we introduce a broad general definition of factor, that encompasses usual factors like Size or Value, then we prove that static longshort multi-factor
T-note yields hit 2.85%, whilst Bund yields trade above 0.70% Solid job growth in the US Upswing continues in the euro area (GDP growth at 2.7%y) Keep a bearish stance across major bond markets Sovereign and credit spreads stable, despite
Fixed Income Strategy Weekly US dollar weakness extends on increased imbalances US growth at 2.6qa in 4Q17 on strong consumer spending Draghi holds policy unchanged Bund yields at 2015 highs, warrants bearish stance Spain, Portugal keep on rallying
Key takeaways Trilateral trade between the US, Mexico and Canada under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) amounted to over $1.1 trillion in 2016. NAFTA is currently facing a serious threat. It may not survive. The US and its
The Arctic is emblematic of a question investors are increasingly asking themselves: is it possible to excuse mid- to long-term risk for the sake of maximizing short-term profits? As it is both one of the most pristine and sensitive regions
Fixed Income Strategy Weekly US yields at 2014 highs US government shutdown begins ECB will have markets waiting for action Tactical neutral stance on Tnote, short stance in Bunds Fitch upgrades Spain to A-, spread within 90bp Significant corporate bond
Fixed Income Strategy Weekly US: consumer spending drives growth in 4Q17 Twin deficits weigh on USD Germany: budget surplus hits 1.2pp of GDP in 2017 Hold a short stance on TNotes and Bunds Peripheral bonds in high demand High yield
Abstract We assess the value added of a multi-factor portfolio from a performance-agnostic point of view. First we introduce a broad general definition of factor, that encompasses usual factors like Size or Value, then we prove that static longshort multi-factor
Fixed Income Strategy Weekly High growth in the US and in the euro area Inflation was 1.4%y in December Short stance in US Treasuries amid flattening pressure High yield and emerging bonds outperform
Ideas Fixed income January 2018 Geopolitical risks (North Korea, trade issues, elections in Europe) remarkably contained in 2017 Central bank policy moving slowly: Fed proceeds with balance sheet normalisation and ECB cuts asset purchases Volatility in France, Spain spreads faded
Our Experts’ Outlook For The New Year 6 major challenges for investors in 2018 MACROECONOMICS “A tricky year for central banks” FIXED INCOME “Dare to dare in 2018!” EQUITIES “M&A set to offer some attractive opportunities” ASSET ALLOCATION “Stay alert”
Fed : three rate hikes likely in 2018 ECB: 2020 inflation at 1.7% keeps QE options open Curve flattening last week Hold neutral stance in T-note and Bunds Portugal upgraded by Fitch
Bund yields dip below 0.30% Fed to hike rates by 25bps this week Year-end tensions on USD funding Bund, USTs: neutral duration, 10s30 steepener Bonos underpeforme
Key Takeaways We maintain a constructive scenario for global growth in 2018, under the constraint of a stronger dollar and under the condition of a further flattening of the US yield curve. Fed policy (Fed funds rate, balancesheet), fiscal reform
Fixed Income Strategy Weekly Robust growth in euro area, time to deal with NPLs Yield curve flattening continues Neutral stance in major bond markets Fade the rally in French OATs
