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Posts From Northern Trust

Tentative Signs of Improvement

Tentative Signs of Improvement

🕔14:42, 7.Apr 2020

Investment Strategy Commentary  Market Signals We have written about the key market signals we are monitoring to assess the effectiveness of the monetary, fiscal and health policy responses to the COVID-19 virus. We are seeing some progress on the monetary

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US economic and interest rate outlook

US economic and interest rate outlook

🕔11:45, 6.Apr 2020

Closing Strong The month of March brought an onslaught of news requiring a daily reassessment of risks. The signs of recession are spreading: empty roads, closed stores, cancelled flights, postponed events and idled workers. Today’s circumstances defy comparison to any

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Policy Tries To Keep Pace With The Pandemic

Policy Tries To Keep Pace With The Pandemic

🕔08:45, 2.Apr 2020

Some of the conversations I’ve shared recently about the economy are also laced with sheer panic. Markets have been volatile, and the data are setting the wrong kinds of records. I’ve tried to counsel patience and perspective, but the only

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Whatever They’ve Got

Whatever They’ve Got

🕔06:59, 30.Mar 2020

Investment Strategy Commentary Whatever they've got – The Monetary, Fiscal & Health Policy Response The sudden stop in the global economy due to the spread of the coronavirus requires an aggressive response from monetary, fiscal and health authorities. We saw

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Bear Market Outcomes Earnings, Valuations And Volatility

Bear Market Outcomes Earnings, Valuations And Volatility

🕔15:50, 27.Mar 2020

Depending on the market index, this has been either the fastest or second fastest bear market in U.S. history. While the timing is uncertain, the impending decline in economic growth and corporate earnings will be followed by a rebound —

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Coronavirus Concerns

Coronavirus Concerns

🕔15:58, 24.Mar 2020

Investment Perspective The rapidity of declines in both equity and credit markets over the last month has been of record pace, as investors have grappled with the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus). In addition, the surprise oil

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Everything in Moderation

Everything in Moderation

🕔15:58, 20.Mar 2020

2020 Outlook We think 2020 will be another year of slow growth – durable enough to avoid recession but disappointing to those looking for improvement. The combination of moderate growth and technological innovation will continue to suppress inflation, bolstering the

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Fiscal, First and Foremost

Fiscal, First and Foremost

🕔15:58, 19.Mar 2020

As the economic consequences of the coronavirus spread, policymakers are struggling to formulate their reactions. Unless they improve their preparedness, it could mean the end of the global expansion. Central banks have done their part. This week, the Bank of

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U.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

U.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

🕔16:01, 12.Mar 2020

COVID-19 has brought a complete turnabout in U.S. risk sentiment. Markets cannot be calmed: safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries have fallen to record-low yields while equity market volatility has been substantial. The U.S. Federal Reserve executed a large, out-of-cycle interest

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Exogenous Shock

Exogenous Shock

🕔10:41, 3.Mar 2020

Investment Perspective February 2020: The media, and financial markets, have been consumed by the continuing spread of the coronavirus (now officially named COVID-19) and its impact on health, economic growth and financial markets. As can be seen below, financial markets

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Coronavirus Update: Spread Outside China is Raising Risks

Coronavirus Update: Spread Outside China is Raising Risks

🕔13:09, 27.Feb 2020

The relative market calm of the last several weeks around the Coronavirus (COVID-19) has ended with a jump in reported cases outside of China. While newly reported cases in China are slowing, there has been a worrying increase in reported

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Accomodating Inflation

Accomodating Inflation

🕔16:45, 24.Feb 2020

Investment Perspective 2019 turned out to be a fantastic year for risk takers, and even for those heavily invested in bonds. The regularly touted impending recession once again failed to materialize, and the U.S. Federal Reserve moved from tightening policy

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6 Themes. 5 Years. 1 Outlook

6 Themes. 5 Years. 1 Outlook

🕔17:00, 10.Feb 2020

We see single-digit and below-average returns from equities as global economies muddle through global growth restructuring. Valuations are at a more reasonable level but they could move slightly lower in the later stages of the economic expansion. Downward pressure on

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Will the 20s Roar? Economic Outlook 2020

Will the 20s Roar? Economic Outlook 2020

🕔09:40, 9.Jan 2020

Recent retrospectives have noted that we closed both a year and a decade on Tuesday. The 2010s turned out to be far more prosperous than almost anyone could have hoped, given that the scars of the global financial crisis were

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2020 Outlook: Everything in Moderation

2020 Outlook: Everything in Moderation

🕔14:53, 1.Jan 2020

Although the 2020 outlook remains guarded, monetary accommodation by key central banks appears to have put the global economy on a reflationary course. Low or negative yields pose duration risks for sovereign bonds. Potential opportunities can still be found in

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Global Economic Outlook 2020

Global Economic Outlook 2020

🕔06:54, 27.Dec 2019

Geo-political risks like the trade war and Brexit dominated headlines and kept markets on edge for most of this year. However, last week’s events offered much-needed relief to investors. After two years of talks, the U.S. and China apparently reached

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Closing strong u.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

Closing strong u.s. Economic & interest rate outlook

🕔16:38, 18.Dec 2019

The year 2019 has given us plenty of fodder for commentary. The Federal Reserve changed its outlook materially, recession worries rose, and the trade war carried on. All the while, the economy has continued to perform admirably, with steady growth,

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Reduced Recession Risk

Reduced Recession Risk

🕔09:33, 3.Dec 2019

Investment Perspective The short-term drivers of market performance are not always clear, but an improving outlook toward economic growth seems to be a clear contributor to the recent rally in equities. At the same time, a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector

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Has the Dragon Lost Its Fire? – Weekly Economic Commentary

Has the Dragon Lost Its Fire? – Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:12, 21.Nov 2019

After a gap of three years, my work calendar finally permitted me to celebrate the festival of Diwali with my parents and relatives. We have a pretty big family, with a few younger members. Among them is my six-year-old nephew,

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Better Visibility, But No Sunshine Yet

Better Visibility, But No Sunshine Yet

🕔07:49, 18.Nov 2019

Global Economic Outlook After several quarters of gridlock, it would appear progress is finally being made on key issues clouding the global economic outlook. The U.S. and China are inching closer to signing “phase one” of a trade deal by

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Northern Trust Global Election predictionsAllocation Investment Perspective / October 2019

Northern Trust Global Election predictionsAllocation Investment Perspective / October 2019

🕔14:03, 7.Nov 2019

Northern Trust Global Asset Allocation Investment Perspective / October 2019  In addition to assessing the severity of the global economic slowdown, markets are wrestling with the U.S./China trade war, Brexit and the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The rising poll numbers

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Capital Market Assumptions Five-Year Outlook: 2019 Edition

Capital Market Assumptions Five-Year Outlook: 2019 Edition

🕔18:41, 4.Nov 2019

Every year, Northern Trust’s Capital Market Assumptions Working Group develops forward- looking, historically aware forecasts for global economic activity and financial market returns that drive our five-year asset class return expectations and inform our asset allocation decisions. All of this

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:39, 17.Oct 2019

The fourth-quarter holiday seasons have expanded to unacceptable lengths. I noticed Halloween candy for sale in August, Thanksgiving cards out in September, and Christmas decorations on the shelves…virtually year-round. I realize the commercial aspects of these occasions have taken on

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Quarterly Market Commentary 3Q 2019  – The Roller Coaster

Quarterly Market Commentary 3Q 2019 – The Roller Coaster

🕔13:37, 14.Oct 2019

Investors rode a veritable roller coaster during the quarter, navigating the hills and valleys of global monetary policy, growing geopolitical risk and quickly shifting sands of trade. Most notably, the sharp and steep upward lurch in global bond prices presented

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔09:45, 10.Oct 2019

Argentina and the IMF: A Bad Case of Déjà Vu Congressional Distractions Will Limit U.S. Economic Policy Capital Flows Get Drawn Into the Trade War

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Munis hit turbulence in a flight to safety -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/blackrock/munis-hit-turbulence-in-a-flight-to-safety/ #cash #coronavirus #FixedIncome #lending #municipalbond #COVID19 via
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Emerging markets debt: Determinants of sovereign bond quality and returns -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/eaton-vance/emerging-markets-debt-determinants-of-sovereign-bond-quality-and-returns/ #credit #EmergingMarkets #debt #fiscalpolicy #sovereignbonds via
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Fixed Income Market Update -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/voya/fixed-income-market-update-4/ #fixedincome #highyield #EMD via #Voya

The corona shock in commodity prices -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/abn-amro/the-corona-shock-in-commodity-prices/ #Commodities #GOLD #oilprice #OPEC #coronavirus #COVID19 via
@ABNAMROeconomen

US Senate approved US fiscal package -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/hsbc/us-senate-approved-us-fiscal-package/ #fiscal #CoronaCrisis #COVIDー19 #inflation #Recession2020 via
@HSBC

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