Dark Before The Dawn Economic Outlook for 2021 Few will look back wistfully on 2020. COVD-19 did tremendous damage to public and economic health around the world. Unprecedented medical and fiscal responses established a recovery, but progress has been uneven
The pandemic has been top of mind for everyone throughout the year, especially during its most uncertain initial stages in the spring. For me, the sad situation was illustrated by one unforgettable sight. I have the fortune of living near
In an environment marked by rapid market swings, investors looking to consistently outperform will have to increase their emphasis on downside protection while maintaining their upside participation.
Global Investing Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner
Weekly Economic Commentary Eleven years ago, I had the pleasure of witnessing my wife’s naturalization ceremony. The presiding judge opened with a memorable comment: “Swearing in new citizens is the only time everyone leaves the courtroom happy.” Everyone present nodded.
U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook The pandemic has made indoor activities and gatherings risky. During the summer, outdoor adventures and backyard socializing were effective workarounds. But as autumn takes hold, the cooling air will gradually limit those options. This
Weekly Economic Commentary IN THIS ISSUE: Curing What Ails U.S. Healthcare Child Care Is A Global Economic Issue When It Comes To The U.S. National Debt, History Will Not Repeat No one can avoid the doctor’s office forever. Whether for
Scenario Analysis: Planning Strategies for all Political Outcomes As the 2020 United States elections on November 3 approach, the enactment of new legislation and regulations are likely to depend, in large part, on whether there is a unifed or divided
Since the global financial crisis, interest rates have been anchored at unprecedented lows. At the same time, stock and bond investments have produced positive returns along with bouts of significant volatility. This has left many investors questioning long-held return expectations
Investment Perspective The relentless run in risk assets over the last five months finally faded a bit in early September, as the S&P 500 fell nearly 8% and the tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 11%. This year’s returns have been heavily influenced
In recent years, global equities had slightly outpaced market forecasts for lower equity returns. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy, putting an end to the 10- year bull market. Equity markets have now started to recover, but the
The battle between public health officials and COVID-19 continues, and, as we had feared, cases in the United States increased significantly in recent months. However, global economic …
The Role Of Gold A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. Investors buy gold for many reasons, but a common objective is a hedge
Europe and the U.S. Consider State Aid Is China’s Rebound Sustainable? Mortgage Rates Hit Bottom
Just months after one of the sharpest drops ever, stock markets globally are nearing cycle highs as most economic data continues to show repair. Fiscal stimulus and income support programs have supported consumer spending over the last several months, as
The first wave of the economic recovery from the pandemic has generally exceeded expectations. Policy interventions in the form of large fiscal packages, asset purchases and government loan schemes have prevented household and business failures. Economies appeared well-positioned to recover
Insurance AUM Journal Companies globally are slashing dividend payments as they face a combination of declining revenues and regulatory measures discouraging …
Risk Insights Series We are in a new era of extreme volatility that is leaving investors searching for new ways to achieve the same portfolio objectives. In an environment marked by …
The upward march in financial markets and economic activity has been quite rapid in recent months, resembling a V-shaped recovery. Risks to a continuation of that unabated recovery have emerged recently in the U.S., as COVID-19 case counts are now
Weekly Economic Commentary Carl offers thoughts on the progress of the pandemic. I belong to an international economic association that meets annually during the summer. We had been set to gather in Madrid earlier this month, but COVID-19 forced …
Overoptimism? Global financial markets have rocketed back from their late-March lows, with the S&P 500 briefly in positive territory for the year. Why are the financial markets performing so much better when the economy is still so weak? Financial markets
COVID-19 is a global pandemic, and while the experience has varied across countries, we are seeing some common threads. Indicators over the past month have suggested that the worst of the downturn is behind us. Industrial activity is resuming, businesses
Companies globally are slashing dividends as they face a combination of declining revenues and regulatory measures discouraging dividend payments. Not surprisingly, companies are now prioritizing liquidity and solvency over returning capital to shareholders. While dividends are being eliminated or suspended,
In this issue The Jobs Data Doesn’t Add Up Yes, Brexit Is Still An Issue Frustration For Food Producers
Weekly Economic Commentary I grew up on the South Side of Chicago in the 1960s. The latter part of the decade was a challenging time for our city, and for our country. I lived close to the University of Chicago,
Point of View Companies globally are slashing dividend payments as they face a combination of declining revenues and regulatory measures discouraging dividend payments. Not surprisingly, companies are now prioritizing …
Weekly Commentary Timing is everything. We want to hit the road just ahead of rush hour. We enjoy perfectly ripe fruit, and a perfectly cooked steak. (And a perfectly aged wine to go with it.) We seek to deliver jokes
Investment Strategy Commentary There has been increasing focus on whether the U.S. stock market is too “top heavy,” with an over-reliance on the top technology stocks. We think business fundamentals should …
After weeks in lockdown, many major economies are easing restrictions to reboot economic activity. Unfortunately, they are faced with a difficult tradeoff between lives and livelihoods. A slow reopening will limit a renewed viral outbreak, but will also prolong the
Investment Perspective Risk assets have rallied strongly over the last seven weeks as policy actions have been forceful, COVID-19 cases have peaked in important areas and investors have been willing to look past the short-term economic …
This month, we are watching economic data catch up to the difficult circumstances. We could see in our daily lives that the economy was approaching a standstill; now, we can begin to understand the extent of the economic impairment. With
Investment Perspective Risk markets have rallied strongly since the fourth week of March, reflecting a collision of positive policy developments and bearish investor sentiment. After a one-month decline of 34% in the S&P 500, we have experienced a snap-back rally
Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment that will likely become one part of the building
Investment Strategy Commentary Oil's Winners & Losers; Remdesivir's Data Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment
We love tales of successful entrepreneurship. We admire tech titans who start by cobbling together computers in a parent’s garage, researchers who spend years perfecting and then producing revolutionary medical therapies, and small people with big ideas who overcome serial
Investing Strategy Commentary Health Policy Remains the Key Aggressive action by the Federal Reserve has helped restore some liquidity and animal spirits to financial markets, while fiscal policy is starting to kick in despite cumbersome transmission mechanisms in some cases.
The Fed Opens the Floodgates Supporting the Workforce Though the Crisis Australia’s Record Expansion Is Ending
KEY POINTS COVID-19, declared by WHO as a global pandemic in March after rapidly spreading to Europe then to North America, triggered historic movements in the fixed income markets and put an end to the record long U.S. bull market.
Before “normal” was redefined by COVID-19, I spent a fair amount of time traveling to give presentations. (So much, in fact, that my wife used to joke that I should change my address to the airport, because that is where
Global Economic Outlook COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc on global financial markets and the global economy. Nations and cities around the world are in lockdown. Vast amounts of economic activity have come to a standstill. As a result, most major
Investment Strategy Commentary Market Signals We have written about the key market signals we are monitoring to assess the effectiveness of the monetary, fiscal and health policy responses to the COVID-19 virus. We are seeing some progress on the monetary
Closing Strong The month of March brought an onslaught of news requiring a daily reassessment of risks. The signs of recession are spreading: empty roads, closed stores, cancelled flights, postponed events and idled workers. Today’s circumstances defy comparison to any
Some of the conversations I’ve shared recently about the economy are also laced with sheer panic. Markets have been volatile, and the data are setting the wrong kinds of records. I’ve tried to counsel patience and perspective, but the only
Investment Strategy Commentary Whatever they've got – The Monetary, Fiscal & Health Policy Response The sudden stop in the global economy due to the spread of the coronavirus requires an aggressive response from monetary, fiscal and health authorities. We saw
Depending on the market index, this has been either the fastest or second fastest bear market in U.S. history. While the timing is uncertain, the impending decline in economic growth and corporate earnings will be followed by a rebound —
Investment Perspective The rapidity of declines in both equity and credit markets over the last month has been of record pace, as investors have grappled with the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus). In addition, the surprise oil
2020 Outlook We think 2020 will be another year of slow growth – durable enough to avoid recession but disappointing to those looking for improvement. The combination of moderate growth and technological innovation will continue to suppress inflation, bolstering the
As the economic consequences of the coronavirus spread, policymakers are struggling to formulate their reactions. Unless they improve their preparedness, it could mean the end of the global expansion. Central banks have done their part. This week, the Bank of
COVID-19 has brought a complete turnabout in U.S. risk sentiment. Markets cannot be calmed: safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries have fallen to record-low yields while equity market volatility has been substantial. The U.S. Federal Reserve executed a large, out-of-cycle interest
Investment Perspective February 2020: The media, and financial markets, have been consumed by the continuing spread of the coronavirus (now officially named COVID-19) and its impact on health, economic growth and financial markets. As can be seen below, financial markets
