Our initial 2022 outlook themes generally played out as expected in the first quarter: strong but slower economic growth, persistently hotter inflation, the onset of interest rate hikes and further bouts of elevated market volatility. But two developments were unexpected:
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and fixed income returns were broadly negative amid continued geopolitical, economic and policy uncertainty. Spread assets remained weaker. U.S. Treasury yields continued to see heightened volatility, with 10-year yields ending the week 26 basis
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week, with inflation breakevens rising to reflect the risk of higher commodity prices due to the Russia/Ukraine conflict. Spread sectors were mixed, but mostly rallied after initial knee-jerk moves lower.
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
January’s market tantrum: Last month played out like Newton’s third law of physics with a twist: for every feared Fed action, there was an equal and opposite overreaction. The 10-year Treasury yield spiked 27 bps, and U.S. large cap growth
The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened and spread sectors rallied strongly last week, as fears over the COVID-19 Omicron variant eased and inflation data came in-line with expectations. The Federal Reserve holds its last meeting of 2021 on Wednesday, where
Recovery, risks and relationships Looking back over the last couple of years, it seems that while so much in our world has changed, much has remained the same. Yet we’ve learned a few lessons along the way. We seem to
U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and the yield curve flattened amid positive economic data and further signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of a taper announcement at the November meeting. The market now prices two full rate hikes
The Treasury curve flattened further last week, with 10-year yields falling -4 bps and 2-year yields rising 8 bps. Economic data were mostly positive, with retail sales beating expectations and continuing to run almost 14% above the pre-pandemic trend. Inflation
U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. After starting the week lower due to Chinese market fears, rates jumped sharply on Thursday to finish the week about eight basis points …
Equities continue to march higher. Despite the coming taper, Fed policy remains accommodative, and a strong earnings outlook supports select stocks. Although COVID-19 hospitalizations have surged, last week investors focused on the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both
CPI inflation was lower than expected in July. The slowdown in consumer prices was welcome news for markets, and supports the views of central bankers and others who have deemed this …
U.S. Treasury yields declined last week despite stronger-than-expected inflation data, as the market moves to price in higher odds of earlier Federal Reserve tightening and somewhat lower longer-term growth and inflation. HIGHLIGHTS Most fixed income sectors performed well, with taxable
A global pandemic kicked off the 2020s – a decade still feeling the effects of the 2007-2008 Global Financial Crisis with ultra-low interest rates and monetary authorities propping up asset markets. It is also a decade preceded by deep social,
Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.
Welcome to EQuilibrium — This new, annual global research explores the drivers of investor behavior and their impact on people, portfolios and problem-solving, with a particular focus on alternatives, responsible investing and the human side of asset management. We also look at the beliefs, mindsets and …
Last March many would have thought that with at least three major pharmas rolling out their vaccines, nine months later the crisis would be winding down. Unfortunately, a combination of underestimated virus contagion and overestimated vaccine distribution makes it look like 2021, at least through the first half, will be a continuation of 2020.
U.S. Treasury yields rose and the yield curve steepened, as economic data came in stronger than expected. Spreads in non-Treasury sectors generally tightened, though emerging markets spreads widened amid brief dollar strength.
2021 Outlook Perspectives on today’s real estate market Our real estate team believes the current market offers opportunity for strategic allocation of private real estate for long-term investment benefit. We also see themes taking shape that will impact the opportunity
Investment perspective and market outlook 10 Predictions For the first time in the 30 years we have been issuing our annual 10 Predictions, we developed a second “revised” set in April to reflect how much the world had changed. And
U.S. Treasury yields closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. Investors were encouraged by positive news related to Brexit, coronavirus vaccines and U.S. fiscal relief efforts. The Federal Reserve (Fed) remained dovish at its December meeting, maintaining asset purchases
Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of
Weekly Investment Commentary Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak last week, with the S&P 500 Index dropping 0.5%. The U.S. elections continued to dominate the headlines, with polls showing an increasing likelihood of a Biden victory and Democratic sweep of
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary U.S. Treasury rates closed higher last week, led by longer maturities. A constructive market tone lifted rates and supported risk assets. Prospects for additional fiscal stimulus prior to the U.S. election dimmed, but rates rose nonetheless
Viewpoints from the Global Investment Committee The question seems to come up consistently in investment meetings and in every conversation with fellow investors – from retirement plans managing their asset/ liability mix, insurance companies providing guaranteed income and individual investors
U.S. Treasury yields rose across the yield curve last week, led by longer maturities. Investors saw renewed potential for a fiscal stimulus package, as well as the possibility of a Democratic sweep of the White House and Senate. Risk assets
Optimizing pension plan outcomes using public and private real asset In a world of low return expectations and even lower interest rates, pension plans are re-evaluating their portfolios, looking for alternative ways to achieve return targets and improve funded status.
Since the global financial crisis, interest rates have been anchored at unprecedented lows. At the same time, stock and bond investments have produced positive returns along with bouts of significant volatility. This has left many investors questioning long-held return expectations
Since the global financial crisis, interest rates have been anchored at unprecedented lows. At the same time, stock and bond investments have produced positive returns along with bouts of significant volatility. This has left many investors questioning long-held return expectations
Most U.S. Treasury yields increased modestly last week, led by longer maturities. The Federal Reserve (Fed) disappointed investors, as it did not expand long-duration asset purchases as some had hoped. The …
Think global Bringing women into the labour force increases the productivity of companies and cities. Various studies cite a number of reasons to support this conclusion. The most obvious cause is that the economy simply loses out on the talents,
For the first time in nearly five months, U.S. equities experienced back-toback weekly losses, with the S&P 500 Index declining 2.5%.1 The weakness was due to overbought conditions (especially in technology) plus mounting skepticism over prospects for another fiscal stimulus
U.S. Treasury yields ended last week essentially where they began, although they experienced significant volatility throughout the week. Yields generally fell each day until Friday, when the better-thanexpected employment report sparked a sharp increase. Non-Treasury sector results ended mixed.
While no real estate sector or portfolio is immune from the negative effects of the coronavirus pandemic, we believe certain sectors and strategies are better positioned in these uncertain …
U.S. Treasury yields fell steadily last week, led by longer maturities, and the yield curve flattened significantly. Wednesday’s 20-year maturity auction overwhelmed investor demand and pushed yields briefly higher, but cautious attitudes prevailed and yields fell …
Weekly Investment Commentary U.S. equities rallied again last week, with the S&P 500 Index climbing 2.5% as it approached a new all-time high.1 Economic data continued to come in ahead of expectations and corporate earnings results have not been quite
10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: MIDYEAR UPDATE THE RECESSION WAS LESS SEVERE AND THE RECOVERY HAS (SO FAR) BEEN QUICKER THAN MANY EXPECTED. There is no doubt that the economic downturn was incredibly deep and painful. According to the IMF, U.S.
U.S. Treasury yields ended the week modestly lower, led by longer maturities. Markets appeared focused on escalating coronavirus concerns, despite generally stronger U.S. economic data. Rising U.S. virus cases are stoking fears of another lock down and associated slowing in economic
Real estate investing in a post-coronavirus world Macro backdrop: GFC pales in comparison to the Great Lockdown The last 30 years of cap rate compression is likely over given the very low interest rate environment. Next decade is likely to
Weekly Fixed Income Commentary U.S. Treasury yields ended the week only slightly lower, masking the week’s volatility.1 Rates rose early in the week, led by longer maturities, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would begin purchasing individual corporate bonds.
Stocks snapped a three-week winning streak as markets sank sharply last week.1 Worries about an uptick in coronavirus cases, the Federal Reserve’s downbeat assessment of long-term economic growth and President Trump’s declining poll numbers all contributed to negative sentiment. But
Real estate investing in a post-coronavirus world Macro backdrop: GFC pales in comparison to the Great Lockdown The last 30 years of cap rate compression is likely over given the very low interest rate environment. Next decade is likely to
Think global According to the United Nations, more than half of the world’s population already lives in urban areas, a percentage predicted to rise to 68% by 2050. The story of the past century has been one of dramatic population
At the end of 2019, we titled our year-ahead outlook, “20/20 vision: a clearer path for growth.” That was then. Markets have since been thrown into turmoil, and investors are grappling with positioning their portfolios to minimize the damage from
Investment perspective and market outlook 10 (mostly new) predictions for 2020: A light at the end of a very long tunnel The coronavirus pandemic and the resulting countermeasures have changed everything. Outside of widespread war, the world has never witnessed
Bonds are trading, leverage isn’t bad, and widespread defaults don’t look likely Following a long, unprecedented period of stability and price appreciation, municipal bond funds experienced equally unprecedented volatility and outflows in early March as the COVID-19 pandemic, broader market
Weekly Investment Commentary U.S. stocks peaked on 19 February, then plummeted in the deepest and fastest decline to a bear market in history. Last week, prices rebounded sharply, as the S&P 500 Index experienced its largest weekly gain since 1938,
The daily whipsaw of financial market volatility continues as investors struggle to determine just how bad the economy will get and how long it will take to emerge from the still-growing coronavirus pandemic. As Nuveen’s Global Investment Committee points out,
Real Estate: Think global Retail sales are migrating online and away from physical stores, damaging the investment returns of retail property. The process is underway in all developed retail markets, but the pace of migration is uneven. Very little research
