In the markets, the biggest opportunities and the biggest risks arise when you have a confluence of unsustainable flows of money and credit forming prices that discount unlikely future economic scenarios. Today, we see a number of such …
ince the Dutch East India Co.’s public share offering in 1602, public markets have allowed for people of all walks of life to help cultivate, contribute, and profit from a capitalistic system that has pulled many out of poverty. Over time, technological innovations have made markets more advanced and the barriers to …
We studied every EM crisis since 1987 and found that it can be possible to reap excess returns by only investing in the two years immediatly after a crisis, an approach we call “crisis investing”. We define EM crisis as periods when major EM stock markets drew down al least 50%.
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on China’s gold market, leading to a 27% y-o-y drop in the nation’s gold demand in 2020. 1 One consequence of such weakness was the widest …
This article analyses the impact of the MiFID II research unbundling provisions on EU sell-side research, following their application on 3 January 2018. The MiFID II provisions require portfolio managers to pay for the research that they obtain, either by paying themselves or by passing on that charge to their clients. Concerns have been raised …
In 2020, more operating companies began allocating cash to digital assets and cryptocurrencies. This is a new dynamic and a departure from more conventional investing by funds and others in this space. One telling example is MicroStrategy Inc., which announced, last December, that it …
The Decentralized Finance (DeFi) space has been all the craze this year, with an estimated value of over $11B locked in the DeFi lending market alone.1 It’s likely that you’ve seen new DeFi platforms with impressive annual percentage yields (APY) advertised for different cryptocurrencies …
The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by compounding existing risks and creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. Looking ahead, we believe that investors will likely see the low interest rate environment as an opportunity to …
Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal After a slow start, silver outpaced gold and most industrial metals in 2020. Initially riding gold’s defensive coattails and then getting a tailwind from its industrial traits, silver was
Asset allocation and risk modeling of bitcoin in an institutional portfolio Bitcoin recently celebrated its twelfth birthday, but in historical terms it is still very much in its infancy as compared to other major asset classes. In this paper we
What a year 2020 was in markets. From the Corona Crash in March to VIX highs in the 80s, to tech stocks doubling and tripling from those lows. From retail traders driving the market, to stimulus checks holding the market
Crypto in Review 2020 The Year of the Bull 2020 will be remembered as a catastrophic year for the world’s economy as the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged global markets. In light of this tragedy, crypto’s epic COVID-19-induced crash and bounce to
Mutual Funds available to the Dutch retail market Top 10 Rankings Screening – The screening starts by selecting the range of funds that are open-end and registered for sale in The Netherlands for the specific asset class – In order
This report examines the state-of-the-art for verbal, numerical and visual methods that are available to communicate uncertainties in official statistics reports. It provides insights into the uncertainty of statistical estimates through a review of existing work on the communication of
The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for CY 2021 is 22.1%, which is above the 10- year average (annual) earnings growth rate of 10.0%. If 22.1% is the actual growth rate for the year, it will
In a year dominated by the COVID-19 pandemic, there has been a renewed focus from governments and companies on the need to address climate change and other sustainability challenges. For their part, many investors are integrating ESG and climate considerations
Most investors have grasped that the extraordinarily loose monetary policies pursued by the leading central banks in 2020 have provided greater support than ever for financial asset prices. So now that the worldwide Covid vaccination campaign has stirred hopes of
Born to Run December 2020 Market Recap & Outlook Takeaways BTC’s +47% return in Dec. marked its best monthly performance since May 2019 and an annual return in excess of +300%, BTC’s 4th best annual performance since 2011. ETH’s +20%
The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great
December 2020 2020 has been a story of the big getting bigger, with valuations for the largest companies in the S&P 500 Index, particularly the FAANGM tech behemoths, reaching near-record levels. In this article, we ask whether such valuations can
This report shows the forward-looking investment intentions of fund selectors, asset allocators and portfolio constructors in Switzerland. In all graphs below, the y-axes (typically marked ‘net buyers’) shows the % of respondents who are looking to buy more of the
For the 2021 batch of Outrageous Predictions, we decided for the most part to don our futurist caps rather than getting too bogged down in market trends and central bank policies. That is largely because the Covid-19 pandemic and the
Summary of the ‘Drawdowns’ academic paper Sacking a fund manager is costly and complex. So, what type and size of drawdown should cause you to risk changing a fund manager? When evaluating managers or strategies, investors pay close attention to
Observations driving Verus outlook PE has pulled back to a significant degree this year. Through 1H2020, deal volume and value stood at roughly a quarter of 2019 tallies, representing a strong deceleration after back-to-back record-breaking years. The median PE deal
Building resilient portfolios for uncertain times Balancing protection and upside potential is a difficult exercise, but we hope investors will find some ideas and some inspiration on how to tackle it in this paper, whether it is through a dynamic
Global gold ETFs: A popular gateway to the gold market Gold-backed exchange-traded funds and similar products (gold ETFs)1 have flourished since their introduction in 2003, attracting both institutional and retail investors across the globe.2 Recently, gold has become globally accepted
The PRI has identified The PRI Leaders’ Group 2019, which highlights asset owner leaders that have developed rigorous follow-up procedures to reduce reputational and management risk, and who have detailed policies for frequently monitoring managers’ performance through on-site interviews, calls
"Since 2000, portfolios made up of restricted stocks, with the exception of coal, have delivered better performance than the benchmark, suggesting that applying the restriction has probably hurt investment performance. However, it’s worth noting that the return gap has been
The incorporation of ESG factors within the investment process has evolved from a nice-to-have to a necessity. Client demand has grown strongly, with 68% of the PRI’s asset owner signatory base addressing ESG considerations in their requests for proposals (RFPs).1
"The size of pension funds compared to GDP varied widely at the end of 2019, ranging from 0.1% in Pakistan to 191.4% in the Netherlands. Assets in pension funds exceeded the size of the domestic economy in five countries: Australia
"Assets in retirement savings plans reached new heights, exceeding USD 50 trillion before the COVID-19 outbreak"
Fixed Income Quarterly Report – Q4 2020 A second wave of coronavirus infections is sweeping the globe, corporate defaults are on the rise and recovery rates are well below their historical average. Meanwhile, the outcome of one of the most
The Investment Clock: "Recovering: After a plunge into recession, economic data started a rapid pick up from March in China and May/June in Europe and the US as social distancing eased. Retail sales have recovered particularly fast in the US
"In the past 18 months the subject of Central Bank Digital Currency has accelerated dramatically from potential research areas, to key policy agenda. Unquestionably, this has been driven by developments in Facebook’s Libra where the spectre of the private sector
Earnings Insight During the month of October, analysts increased earnings estimates for companies in the S&P 500 for the fourth quarter. The Q4 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q4 for all the
The crypto derivatives landscape has evolved tremendously over the last several years. Beginning with pioneers like Crypto Facilities, BitMEX, Deribit, BitVC (now HuobiDM), and OKEx, derivatives trading in crypto markets really took hold in 2017, dovetailing the entrance of traditional
Swiss Finance Institute – Research Paper Series N°20-63 Abstract We study how plan sponsors choose investment management firms from their opportunity set when delegating $1.6 trillion in assets between 2002 and 2017. Two factors play an influential role in choice:
Benchmark on Responsible Investment by Pension Funds in the Netherlands 2020 This year marks VBDO’s 25th anniversary. A silver jubilee gives us a reason to look back over what has been achieved. Back in 1995, the financial sector had very
Executive summary Investment is a fast-changing industry: 232 names in our 2009 list of 500 largest asset managers are not in our 2019 list. There seems to be a quickening of the pace of consolidation. Mandate and process trends have
Fund selector asset class research Key points – Dutch investors are very bullish towards plenty of asset classes this quarter. – At the top of the list are Asia ex Japan equities, infrastructure funds, multi-strat hedge funds, gold funds and
An EDHEC-Risk Institute Working Paper This paper employs a robust portfolio sorting procedure to factor size characteristics into returns. The US size anomaly boils then down to a pure seasonal effect, fully supporting the “tax-loss-selling” hypothesis. We build a long-short
September 2020 Bitcoin Volatility Report – Sept. kicked off with bitcoin’s annualized volatility touching a 5-week low of 38.8%, only to then rally above 50% on Sept. 3, bounce between 50% and 56%, and snap a 5-month downtrend by concluding
Gold’s intrinsic value has been recognised for millennia but its role on the global stage changed fundamentally following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In 1971, US President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold. By 1973, advanced countries
As we write, the world at large is picking its way carefully through the aftermath of COVID-19, a crisis borne of many mothers, but one which can unquestionably be traced back to environmental and social factors. Businesses are beginning to
A compilation of thought-provoking insights produced by Man Group during the month. It’s astounding what these google searches can tell us about trends. These examples represent some of the most common search terms during each period, and had an eerily
An upside-down market is a market in which good news functions as bad news and bad news functions as good news. The force that turns markets upside-down is policy. News, good or bad, triggers a countervailing policy response with effects
At Calvert, we have long considered corporate governance assessments an integral part of company research because they can be an indicator of how well a company identifies material environmental and social factors and manages associated …
Growth in energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth and a partial unwinding of some of the one-off factors that boosted energy demand in 2018.This slowdown was particularly evident in the US, Russia and India, each
Especially as long-term investors, we need to understand the financial risks around climate change and the implications of that risk for investing. Speaking about climate change in the language of financial risk neutralizes concerns around social or moral agendas.
Society’s data usage has been growing exponentially for decades,1 but the lockdown measures imposed during the COVID-19 pandemic have placed even greater emphasis on the importance of digital connectivity. Tim Perry looks at the investment opportunities and challenges associated with
"Has the tide finally turned for #emergingmarkets #equities after a decade of trailing #US markets? It’s a question we often hear." 5 reasons why EM equities could power ahead in #2021 by @CapitalGroup -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2021/02/capital-group/5-reasons-why-em-equities-could-power-ahead-in-2021/
The underperformance of Value vs. Growth stocks explained
From the winter edition of our VBA Journaal, written by Jeroen Kakebeeke RBA, Investment Risk Manager at PGGM
#valueinvesting #growthinvesting
https://nieuws.cfavba.nl/publicaties/the-underperformance-of-value-vs-growth-stocks-explained/4a37e54d-5361-11eb-8a1e-005056b303d3
Reflation, Flation, What’s Your Nation? https://www.etftrends.com/model-portfolio-channel/reflation-flation-whats-your-nation/ #ETF #tracker
