All asset classes have benefited from 30 years of falling interest rates, as future cash flows have been discounted at steadily lower rates, boosting present values. Trend-Following strategies, which take long and short positions across equity, interest rate, commodity, currency,
In 2018, it was relatively easy for asset managers to ignore the cryptocurrency space. Bitcoin had crashed, losing over 80% of its value, and the new ecosystem was littered with failed initial coin offerings. It all looked like a fad.
The S&P 500 Index fell into bear market territory on Friday 20 May – defined as a 20% from its recent high – the first time since March 2020, when markets sold off over fears around the Covid-19 pandemic. But
Many investors see yield curve inversions—when short-term bond yields exceed longterm yields—as foreboding. Do they signal a stock market downturn? Data from the US and other major economies show yield curve inversions have not historically predicted …
Na een lange periode waarin inflatie (ruim) onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank lag, zijn de prijzen in Nederland en in het eurogebied de afgelopen maanden omhooggeschoten. Dit is deels een gevolg van de heropening van de economie
This is the fifth Swiss Sustainable Investment Market Study published by Swiss Sustainable Finance (SSF) in collaboration with the Center for Sustainable Finance and Private Wealth (CSP) at the University of Zurich. After the impressive increase in the amount of
Restrictive central banks and high inflation rates are likely to continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Macro outlook – The US Federal Reserve stays its course High inflation rates are increasingly permeating global economies, and sharp increases in commodity
De pensioenstelselherziening komt snel dichterbij. Deze herziening betekent onder meer een transitie naar premieovereenkomsten. Dat heeft een grote impact op pensioenuitvoerders, werkgevers, werknemers en gepensioneerden. De inzichten uit dit tweede Sectorbeeld Pensioenen (‘Sectorbeeld’) kunnen voor pensioenprofessionals van waarde zijn bij
Bitcoin was originally created as a currency for the internet, where people could send and receive money without going through a financial institution. In recent years, the dominant narratives surrounding bitcoin have been solely focused on its potential as a
Introduction USD22 billion to USD85 billion in the last 10 years.1 2021 was a stellar year for M&A2 activity, with more than 40,000 deals announced globally.3 Chances are that a fund manager will, at some point, be exposed to a
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year
As the chief research officer of Buckingham Strategic Partners, the issue I am being asked to address most often is about fixed income strategies when yields are at historically low levels and inflation risk is heightened due to the unprecedented
The academic value factor (long cheap stocks, short expensive stocks) earns higher returns among small-cap stocks. However, when viewed through the lens of a long-only value investor, size is a less important factor. For example, equal-weight large-cap value portfolios historically
Since the 1980s, the global economy has been fuelled by an asymmetric capitalism. Significant interventions by governments (fiscal policy) and central banks (rates and QE), particularly during the Covid pandemic over the last two years, have resulted in disparity of
Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) currently has no plans to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC), but to ensure the stability and efficiency of settlement systems as a whole, the BOJ regards it …
Cybersecurity is one of the fastest growing investment areas for businesses and governments alike, driven by the exponential growth in the adoption of both Cloud Computing and IoT. This explosion in connectivity and cloudbased storage comes hand-in-hand with the risk
On-chain crypto-assets transaction volumes have grown rapidly, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic. Crypto-assets activity appears to be a global phenomenon, although it still remains modest relative to gross domestic product for most countries. Panel regressions across more than 130 countries
As the chief research officer of Buckingham Strategic Partners, the issue I am being asked to address most often is about fixed income strategies when yields are at historically low levels and inflation risk is heightened due to the unprecedented
We live in a world that is increasingly digitalized: most economic transactions and social interactions today occur remotely through the internet. The rapid digitalization of our lives also coincides with the growth of large social media and financial service companies
For the reader in a hurry: we have not been able to find systematic alpha in ESG data for sovereigns so far. However, an ESG approach to sovereign debt selection can be additive in at least three ways: (1) a
Q2 Strategy Outlook In the second quarter, there are two overriding themes: the geopolitical situation is more dangerous than many of us can remember, and markets are dealing with inflation not seen in at least 40 years. We believe investors
For most of the past year, gold has been ignoring the red-hot inflation that we have been living in. Our internal forecasts model indicates that gold, when factoring in a US inflation rate of 7.9% in February 2022, should be
Innovation stocks have become a popular investment theme but are facing scrutiny. We build a half-century backtest of innovation that invests in a rotating portfolio of technologies trending in patent data. Innovation has delivered positive long-term returns distinct from growth
The Private Equity Market in 2021: The Allure of Growth In a record-breaking year, private equity investors made it plain that it’s not just about buyout anymore. By just about any measure, private equity set a remarkable new standard for
Potential solution Rebalancing through an overlay introduces daily monitoring, real-time portfolio rebalancing, and the potential for reduced transaction costs—all while improving policy benchmark tracking. Daily monitoring by the overlay manager allows for immediate identification of and response to portfolio imbalances.
In this article, we try to address the following questions: (1) how has the US equity market evolved over the past few years in terms of active, passive, and retail investors?; (2) how has the factor-investing landscape changed (including ESG
For an industry largely founded on assumptions based on historical averages, investors can have surprisingly short memories. Recency bias – the tendency to give greater importance to recent events than to the long term – is difficult to overcome, even
Inflationary pressures will likely peak but not disappear Inflation, once thought transitory, now appears more durable. Supply-demand imbalances, while an expected aspect of the economic cycle, have been exacerbated by the unprecedented nature of pandemic shutdowns. The workforce remains constrained
Despite recent increases in interest rates, the U.S. Treasury yield curve remains largely flat and has even inverted in some parts after maturities of two or three years. But the short end of the curve remains quite …
After a year of managing the challenges of the pandemic, the outlook on the European continent (and beyond) has only become more challenging with the crisis in Ukraine. Our thoughts and hopes are with those who struggle to see a
Since we last did this survey in 2020, there has been a clear salary inflation across the industry, the average salary increasing by 11% and bonuses rising by 10%. In our experience, a lot of the salary inflation is been
2022 long-term expected returns for capital markets Balanced return: We forecast a traditional balanced fund (60% equities / 40% bonds with a home bias) to return somewhere close to 4%, or roughly 2.0% in real terms. The lower-than-historical return can
Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan
This paper studies the cross-section of expected municipal bond returns. We show that municipal bond yields contain reliable information about differences in expected municipal bond returns across states of issuance, duration range, and credit quality. Hence, using information embedded in
INTRODUCTION: This report presents Angeles Investment Advisors’ updated capital market assumptions as of January 2022. These assumptions are used in asset allocation modeling for our clients over a long-term horizon (>10 years). Versus our most recent assumptions from our 2021
Executive Summary “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper…. is so far different from
After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments
Current Market Conditions Strong performance across both growth and value strategies during 2021 2021 returns for U.S. equity markets are eye-popping: – S&P 500: +28.7% – U.S. Small Cap: +14.8% – Non-U.S. equity markets lagged: – MSCI World ex USA:
Sustainable Leadership in Financial Services Sustainable leadership. What does that actually mean? And what does it entail for the Financial Services sector? Does it mean shifting strategies from making profits to ensuring the planet is ok? To care about the
Including: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Short-Term Tactical Outlook This report presents Cliffwater recommendations for asset class return and risk (standard deviation) assumptions, intended for asset allocation studies that set long-term portfolio asset class targets. While these forward-looking or “expected” asset
Sellwood Consulting updates its capital markets assumptions on an annual basis. Our 2022 assumptions reflect information as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted. This report documents our process for creating these capital markets assumptions, and we provide detailed methodology
Clear insights into multi-asset investing, macro and research Key points As our multi-asset franchise, All Roads, reached its 10-year milestone, we applied the investment and research insights gained in the past decade to assess the prevailing risk of Q1 –
The world’s stock markets display a decades-long pattern of overnight and intraday returns seemingly consistent with only one explanation: one or more large, long-lived quant firms tending to expand its portfolio early in the day (when its trading moves prices
Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine war and its economic fallout. The world's major economies went into the current crisis with fairly sound fundamentals, positive growth and low unemployment. Several were still enjoying the boost from withdrawing social distancing measures introduced
Economics • Russia invasion delays recovery. Uncertainty and higher prices weigh on economy. • Price increases continue. Energy and food prices as drivers. Several months of …
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war involving a global military superpower has created significant uncertainty for investors. The condemnation from the rest of the world has been united, backed up with punitive sanctions that most certainly will
Olaf Sleijpen – DNB – Shared Value conferentie, 5 april 2022 De presentatie bestaat uit drie onderdelen: 1. Eerst wil ik samen reflecteren op de recente ontwikkelingen op de Nederlandse woningmarkt. 2. Daarna wil ik inzoomen op de risico’s voor
Deze DNB analyse is een vervolg op een eerdere publicatie, waarin een inschatting werd gemaakt van de financiële positie van het Nederlandse Midden en Kleinbedrijf (mkb) begin 2021 (de Winter en Volkerink, 2021). Deze analyse verdiept de eerdere studie door
The AFM has researched for which types of Dutch households it may be suitable – under particular circumstances – to invest part of their savings. European policy debates focus on increasing the number of retail investors on the European capital
