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Opportunities in Long Credit for European Corporate Pension LDI Portfolios

Opportunities in Long Credit for European Corporate Pension LDI Portfolios

🕔11:55, 29.May 2020

For corporate pension funds, increased exposure to long credit could help: Close the spread duration gap: European corporate pension funds are generally underweight spread duration versus their liabilities. In the current market environment, wider spreads offer an opportunity to invest

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A Phased Market Recovery as Liquidity and Fundamentals Return

A Phased Market Recovery as Liquidity and Fundamentals Return

🕔09:40, 23.Apr 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic pummeled financial markets, but liquidity and fundamentals are coming back.  Even as the humanitarian and economic crises of the coronavirus pandemic expand, policymakers have been reacting with unprecedented speed and support, and financial markets have begun to

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From hurting to healing

From hurting to healing

🕔08:10, 10.Apr 2020

Cyclical Outlook Following the longest expansion on record, the global economy is currently plunging into what could easily become one of the deepest but also shortest recessions in modern times. However, business cycle history offers new clues for what is

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Coronavirus Economic Impact and Market Implications

Coronavirus Economic Impact and Market Implications

🕔06:38, 16.Mar 2020

Executive Summary We believe the COVID-19 outbreak will peak in May or June, or in summer, to be followed by a meaningful economic recovery. However, the path to that destination remains highly uncertain and will likely be accompanied by disruption

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Prolonging the Expansion

Prolonging the Expansion

🕔10:37, 28.Feb 2020

We discuss portfolio positioning for our outlook of economic momentum recovering in 2020, but with certain risks at elevated levels. The past decade marked a tremendous return environment for most asset classes. 2019, in particular, was a banner year for

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Seven Macro Themes for 2020

Seven Macro Themes for 2020

🕔07:00, 24.Jan 2020

The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors. 

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Seven Macro Themes for 2020

Seven Macro Themes for 2020

🕔08:44, 9.Jan 2020

The outlook for the global economy has improved over the past three months, but there may be less capacity to combat a recession when it comes. We discuss seven key macroeconomic themes we expect in 2020 and implications for investors.

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Negative Rates: Negative View

Negative Rates: Negative View

🕔11:12, 23.Dec 2019

Why are negative nominal interest rates so troubling? Economic theory favors real rates, which have already been negative in most developed countries for some time. In theory, lowering the nominal policy rate into negative territory should produce many of the

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U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

🕔15:45, 11.Dec 2019

Competing dynamics have kept U.S. inflation largely stable, but the balance may be shifting After the turbulence of the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. inflation entered a remarkably stable period that has persisted for the past three decades. As Figure

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Beneath the Surface

Beneath the Surface

🕔12:47, 25.Nov 2019

 A reprieve in trade tensions between the U.S. and China bolstered investor confidence in October even as political uncertainty increased around the globe. Washington and Beijing announced details of a potential deal – coined as “phase one” – for the

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A Tale of Two Halves

A Tale of Two Halves

🕔09:33, 18.Oct 2019

Despite an optimistic start to September, mixed geopolitical developments weighed on investor sentiment over the month. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased somewhat as September began: China exempted certain U.S. agricultural products from additional tariffs, and President Donald

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The Potential and Challenges of 5G: A Global Credit Analysis

The Potential and Challenges of 5G: A Global Credit Analysis

🕔18:21, 23.Sep 2019

The world’s biggest telecommunications companies spent hundreds of billions of U.S. dollars to build the pipes that undergird the internet, yet they weren’t the big winners. Instead, the giants of search, social media, and streaming media have garnered most of

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Credit versus Equities: Investing Across the Capital Structure

Credit versus Equities: Investing Across the Capital Structure

🕔17:05, 27.Aug 2019

In depth Companies issue both debt and equity to finance their operations, and their valuations should be linked to the enterprise value of the firm. However, due to investor segmentation, the capital market imposes little discipline in valuing the two

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Strength Amid Weakness: Why Active High Yield Strategies Shine – and Especially During Downturns

Strength Amid Weakness: Why Active High Yield Strategies Shine – and Especially During Downturns

🕔11:46, 20.Aug 2019

Years of persistent low yields across much of the global fixed income market have spurred many investors to look lower down the credit spectrum in search of yield, or to increase their allocation to equities, in an effort to meet

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Monthly Market Update | August 2019

Monthly Market Update | August 2019

🕔17:42, 16.Aug 2019

The Federal Reserve lowered its target policy rate for the first time in over a decade, ending one of the longest hiking cycles in the past 30 years. While the cumulative increase in the federal funds rate of 225 basis

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How to Overcome the Structural Bias in Cash and Short-Term Investing

How to Overcome the Structural Bias in Cash and Short-Term Investing

🕔17:37, 16.Aug 2019

Behavioral scientists are skilled at analyzing why we make mistakes, and financial and investment decisions have been a ripe field to till. The challenge lies in overcoming our biases that result in poor decisions, particularly in today’s late economic cycle

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The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

🕔11:38, 17.Jul 2019

Executive Summary Over the secular (three- to five-year) horizon, growth in China will likely slow somewhat, and we expect some form of resolution of the current U.S.– China trade conflict. Longer-term, though, tensions will remain, as the two nations compete

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Tapping Opportunity in Oil and Gas Infrastructure

Tapping Opportunity in Oil and Gas Infrastructure

🕔15:06, 13.Jun 2019

M idstream energy infrastructure companies have, in our view, generally emerged from the balance sheet and nancing challenges that had plagued the sector since 2014. With these issues now largely in the rearview mirror, oil and gas master limited partnerships

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Dealing With Disruption

Dealing With Disruption

🕔17:02, 2.Jun 2019

Secular Outlook 2019 Major secular drivers could disrupt the global economy and financial markets over the next three to five years. We share our views on risks and opportunities ahead.   

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Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities

Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities

🕔11:02, 15.Apr 2019

Viewpoint April 2019 U.S. corporate bond markets have transformed in the past few years as the proportion of BBB rated credit has swollen. There’s little room for error, as we noted back in January 2018. Where do we stand now?

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Emerging and developed markets: So the last shall be first?

Emerging and developed markets: So the last shall be first?

🕔11:02, 15.Apr 2019

After a rip-roaring recovery from the miserable end to last year, it is easy to think of reasons to take a more cautious view of the prospects for world equity markets. In particular, analysts have steadily lowered profit forecasts around

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Emerging and Developed markets: So the last shall be first

Emerging and Developed markets: So the last shall be first

🕔11:02, 15.Apr 2019

After a rip-roaring recovery from the miserable end to last year, it is easy to think of reasons to take a more cautious view of the prospects for world equity markets. In particular, analysts have steadily lowered profit forecasts around

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Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities

Falling Angels? Credit Market Risks and Opportunities

🕔11:02, 15.Apr 2019

Viewpoint April 2019 U.S. corporate bond markets have transformed in the past few years as the proportion of BBB rated credit has swollen. There’s little room for error, as we noted back in January 2018. Where do we stand now?

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The Wealth of Nations

The Wealth of Nations

🕔14:02, 29.Mar 2019

Emerging Markets Outlook Emerging markets (EM) have been fast out of the gate in 2019, recalling last year’s strong start and subsequent stumble. While we are constructive on the prospects for EM performance in the year ahead, we think the

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Flatlining at The New Neutral

Flatlining at The New Neutral

🕔14:02, 22.Mar 2019

Cyclical outlook march We believe short-term interest rates in the U.S. are now anchored in The New Neutral, as global growth keeps synching lower. 

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Risk assets rallied further in February due to optimism on US-China trade talks

Risk assets rallied further in February due to optimism on US-China trade talks

🕔11:02, 22.Mar 2019

Risk assets rallied further in February due to optimism on US-China trade talks, low volatility, and positive sentiment from the Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot in January. As US Treasury prices declined, the rate curve steepened, with two-year and 10-year rates

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What are Factors?

What are Factors?

🕔09:13, 5.Mar 2019

Multi-Factor Strategies A “factor” is a generic label for company and stock price characteristics that provide the common sources of return across a broad universe of equity securities. For example, the value factor includes stocks that are inexpensive relative to

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Defensive Versus Cyclical: The Blurring Lines

Defensive Versus Cyclical: The Blurring Lines

🕔14:02, 4.Mar 2019

Viewpoint11 For credit investors, the equity market can be an important source of information about growth expectations, and at times can serve as a leading indicator. However, recent developments in some defensive sectors – traditionally favored by equity and credit

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Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing

Late Cycle vs. End Cycle Investing

🕔13:02, 25.Feb 2019

Asset Allocation Views As the economic expansion aged and volatility increased throughout 2018, consensus shied from viewing the U.S. expansion as likely to continue for the foreseeable future to believing that we are in the late stages. We believe we

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CLO Markets: Opportunities Amid Risks in 2019

CLO Markets: Opportunities Amid Risks in 2019

🕔15:02, 16.Feb 2019

Viewpoint The fourth quarter of 2018 witnessed an uptick in credit market volatility, as investors grew increasingly risk-averse in the face of falling equity markets, ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions and geopolitical risks such as Brexit. Broader market weakness spilled over

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CIO Investment Outlook

CIO Investment Outlook

🕔19:02, 11.Feb 2019

Asset Allocation Outlook CIO Investment Outlook  As the economic expansion aged and volatility increased throughout 2018, consensus shifted from viewing the U.S. expansion as likely to continue for the foreseeable future to believing that we are in the late stages.

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Bank of Canada Monthly Research Update

Bank of Canada Monthly Research Update

🕔09:21, 1.Feb 2019

We propose a functional principal components method that accounts for stratified random sample weighting and time dependence in the observations to understand the evolution of distributions of monthly micro-level consumer prices for the United Kingdom (UK). We apply the method

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Monetary Policy Report

Monetary Policy Report

🕔09:21, 1.Feb 2019

The Bank’s mandate is to conduct monetary policy to promote the economic and financial well-being of Canadians. Canada’s experience with inflation targeting since 1991 has shown that the best way to foster confidence in the value of money and to

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catching down

catching down

🕔09:46, 27.Jan 2019

Monthly Market Update | January 2019  December’s equity market sell-off led global equity markets into the red, marking the first time that U.S., non-U.S. developed, and emerging market equities all ended the year in negative territory since 2008. In fact,

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Three Investment Themes for 2019

Three Investment Themes for 2019

🕔14:04, 25.Jan 2019

Maintaining flexibility, being currency aware and searching out pockets of values are themes for 2019. PIMCO’s European wealth management team recently met to discuss the state of markets and our outlook for intermediary clients in Europe. Drawing on a survey

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Asia Market Outlook 2019

Asia Market Outlook 2019

🕔14:04, 18.Jan 2019

Recovery, Rebalancing and Rotation Last year was one that many investors in Asian bonds might like to forget. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index was 4% weaker, the benchmark J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) was down 0.77% overall, and

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Navigating Late-Cycle Markets

Navigating Late-Cycle Markets

🕔14:03, 19.Nov 2018

Income Strategy Update: Disappointing macroeconomic data and ongoing political uncertainty have weighed heavily on the euro. Does this pessimistic picture mean there’s room for a rally?

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Into the Red Zone

Into the Red Zone

🕔09:14, 17.Nov 2018

Monthly Market Update Volatility returned and pulled markets across the globe into the red. The sell-off in risk assets appeared to have several culprits: hawkish Fed comments, rising interest rates, signs of peak earnings growth and political fragility in Europe.

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Love ’EM or Leave ’EM?

Love ’EM or Leave ’EM?

🕔10:08, 16.Oct 2018

Monthly Market Update Investors’ focus centered on emerging markets as less supportive external conditions exacerbated the situation in select countries. Emerging markets (EM) faced a more challenging macro backdrop coming into August, with a strengthening U.S. dollar and the Federal

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Love ’EM or Leave ’EM?

Love ’EM or Leave ’EM?

🕔10:24, 18.Sep 2018

Monthly Market Update Emerging markets (EM) faced a more challenging macro backdrop coming into August, with a strengthening U.S. dollar and the Federal Reserve on the move. Two economies in particular garnered headlines. The month began after Turkey’s central bank

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Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy

Some Implications of Uncertainty and Misperception for Monetary Policy

🕔09:35, 28.Aug 2018

When choosing a strategy for monetary policy, policymakers must grapple with mismeasurement of labor market slack, and of the responsiveness of price inflation to that slack. Using stochastic simulations of a small-scale version of the Federal Reserve Board’s principal New

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Competition, Stability, and Efficiency in Financial Markets

Competition, Stability, and Efficiency in Financial Markets

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

We find that (1) an intensification of competition increases the efficiency and fragility of banks; (2) economies can avoid the fragility costs of competition by enhancing bank governance and tightening leverage requirements; and (3) the monetary transmission mechanism is materially

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More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

More Amazon Effects: Online Competition and Pricing Behaviors

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

I study how online competition, with its shrinking margins, algorithmic pricing technologies, and the transparency of the web, can change the pricing behavior of large retailers in the U.S. and affect aggregate inflation dynamics. In particular, I show that in

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Jackson Hole Symposium 2018: Changing Market Structure and Monetary Policy

Jackson Hole Symposium 2018: Changing Market Structure and Monetary Policy

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

Over the last decade we have seen the start of a revolution in Artificial Intelligence, Big Data and Fintech that is changing many industries, including financial services. In my comments I want to focus on two aspects of these emerging

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The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries

The Impact of Trade on Inequality in Developing Countries

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

Such quotes pervade the discussion of international trade in the United States. Yet this particular quote continues: “Jobs that should be offered to Brazilians are being delivered on a tray to the Chinese, Koreans, Indians, etc … .” It was

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Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles

Understanding Weak Capital Investment: the Role of Market Concentration and Intangibles

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

We document that the rise of factors such as software, intellectual property, brand, and innovative business processes, collectively known as “intangible capital” can explain much of the weakness in physical capital investment since 2000. Moreover, intangibles have distinct economic features

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Increasing Differences between firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy

Increasing Differences between firms: Market Power and the Macro-Economy

🕔09:34, 28.Aug 2018

A rich understanding of macro-economic outcomes requires taking into account the large (and increasing) differences between firms. These differences stem in large part from heterogeneous productivity rooted in managerial and technological capabilities that do not transfer easily between firms. In

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De-FANGed Trade?

De-FANGed Trade?

🕔10:48, 20.Aug 2018

Monthly Market Update Global trade tensions appeared to lose some bite with a thawing of U.S.-European trade relations, though some conflicts continued. A meeting between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker led to an apparent détente between

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Late-Cycle Investing

Late-Cycle Investing

🕔10:16, 17.Aug 2018

Midyear Update The global trade order that has existed for decades is being disrupted. Several economic indicators are running hot (see Figure 1) even as the current U.S. expansion has begun its tenth year. Volatility is higher as some investors

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De-FANGed Trade?

De-FANGed Trade?

🕔14:04, 16.Aug 2018

  Monthly Market Update Global trade tensions appeared to lose some bite with a thawing of U.S.-European trade relations, though some conflicts continued. A meeting between President Donald Trump and European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker led to an apparent détente

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