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Emerging Market Fixed Income 2022 Outlook

Emerging Market Fixed Income 2022 Outlook

🕔15:53, 17.Jan 2022

In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and

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Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 14.Jan 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

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Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

🕔08:02, 11.Jan 2022

Key points The surge in inflation in 2021 combined with the sharp fall in unemployment leaves two of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy objectives within reach as the year comes to a close. Moreover, with US housing prices rising

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Emerging Market Fixed Income 2022 Outlook

Emerging Market Fixed Income 2022 Outlook

🕔10:31, 10.Jan 2022

In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and

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Value creation throughout market cycles

Value creation throughout market cycles

🕔10:52, 7.Jan 2022

UBP’s 30 Global Leaders Equity strategy offers an efficiently diversified exposure to 30 high and stable CFROI® (Cash Flow Return on Investment, source Credit Suisse HOLT) large cap companies. The strategy shows superior and resilient levels of value creation (CFROI®

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Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

🕔11:26, 4.Jan 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration

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China: The factors behind weaker growth in 2022

China: The factors behind weaker growth in 2022

🕔10:43, 3.Jan 2022

KEY TAKEAWAYS The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months. As a result and

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Reshaping the European Union Spotlight

Reshaping the European Union Spotlight

🕔12:30, 15.Dec 2021

The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …

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The Strong Potential of Swiss Small and Mid-Caps Equities

The Strong Potential of Swiss Small and Mid-Caps Equities

🕔12:45, 10.Dec 2021

The Swiss small and mid-cap equity segment offers exposure to a balanced and diversified universe of value creative companies. Beyond its 40% concentration in the three names, Nestlé, Roche and Novartis, the large cap space is often …

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Rebuilding USD and duration exposure going into year-end

Rebuilding USD and duration exposure going into year-end

🕔15:49, 8.Dec 2021

ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS   Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to

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How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

🕔08:05, 26.Nov 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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Podcast: Are central banks at an inflection point?

Podcast: Are central banks at an inflection point?

🕔14:56, 19.Nov 2021

5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.

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The battle against stagflation

The battle against stagflation

🕔00:37, 17.Nov 2021

With the benefits of public sector largesse of 2020 and 2021 now fading, economies around the world are increasingly reliant on private sector demand and an increase in global trade to continue the pandemic-era expansion currently underway. However, the partially

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Podcast: Positive Impact Equity | Performance & positioning

Podcast: Positive Impact Equity | Performance & positioning

🕔09:45, 12.Nov 2021

During 2020 the market went through a number of distinct phases from, 1) ignorance of the impending COVID-19 effects (January, February) to, 2) panic (end of February to mid-April) to, 3) the “world will need to change” as a broad

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Investing in biodiversity – Why and How

Investing in biodiversity – Why and How

🕔16:32, 5.Nov 2021

A decline in the ecosystem services that nature provides will initially pose a direct physical risk to businesses as harvests become more unreliable, weather patterns change and pollinators no longer support agriculture. The risk is both event-driven, e.g. flooding or

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Inflation – The case for CDS indices to play the inflation theme

Inflation – The case for CDS indices to play the inflation theme

🕔12:05, 4.Nov 2021

Podcast: Inflation has come to the forefront recently. In that respect, senior loans – also known as bank loans or leveraged loans – are drawing interest from investors looking for an income solution with … Access the content here: For

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China: the landscape has changed

China: the landscape has changed

🕔10:14, 29.Oct 2021

Many will cite the suspension of the Ant Group IPO in November, 2020 as kicking off the crackdown on China’s ‘Big Tech’ companies and presaging the July, 2021 crackdowns across a wider range of industries. However, the regulatory foundations for

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Asia: Long road to reopening amidst stark regional divergences

Asia: Long road to reopening amidst stark regional divergences

🕔10:46, 22.Oct 2021

Travel restrictions have remained in place in Asia, as markets in Europe and North America have gradually moved towards reopening over the summer. This took place even against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases. The justification behind …

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Podcast: Good Momentum for Value and ESG investing

Podcast: Good Momentum for Value and ESG investing

🕔09:19, 15.Oct 2021

A compelling investment opportunity: Japanese equities offer attractively priced and more visible earnings growth for 2021 and beyond. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are currently trading at a discount to global equities. And Japan equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery.

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Credit differentiation will continue, and active selection remains key

Credit differentiation will continue, and active selection remains key

🕔12:13, 14.Oct 2021

Global investors are facing a serious conundrum. While core yields have sold off, they remain very low by historical standards. In addition, most spread assets offer spreads that are also at historically tight levels. The combination means … Access the

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EM Fixed Income: update on Evergrande

EM Fixed Income: update on Evergrande

🕔11:05, 4.Oct 2021

The dominant theme in emerging markets over the last few weeks has been Chinese corporate bonds, particularly high-yield issuers, which have cheapened markedly in recent months as the Chinese government tightened policies, particularly in the … Access the content here:

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Why is it a good time to allocate to high-yield markets via CDS indices?

Why is it a good time to allocate to high-yield markets via CDS indices?

🕔10:58, 1.Oct 2021

CDS indices outperformed bonds and behaved better in times of stress thanks to better liquidity High-yield CDS indices have outperformed the high-yield bond market over the long term regardless of the interest rate exposure, as illustrated in Figure 3. This

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UBP impact insights – September 2021

UBP impact insights – September 2021

🕔15:08, 30.Sep 2021

Welcome to the first edition of the UBP Impact Newsletter. Between the annual impact report and the regular thought pieces the team produces, we felt that our clients – current and future – would welcome a more informal update from

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Sustainable Investing in EM Sovereign Debt

Sustainable Investing in EM Sovereign Debt

🕔12:18, 29.Sep 2021

In this paper, we will take a closer look at why it is important to systematically evaluate material ESG risk factors in fundamental credit research across emerging market sovereigns. We go on to discuss the ESG framework we developed for

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Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

🕔16:23, 17.Sep 2021

Inflation? The debate about inflation has been hotting up. During the earnings season, many companies flagged up the fact that they were experiencing higher supply costs. In April, the latest US CPI print – a measure of inflation in the

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A mature bull market is not something to fear

A mature bull market is not something to fear

🕔10:16, 14.Sep 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …

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China’s Five-Year Plan: A transformative shift towards self-sufficiency

China’s Five-Year Plan: A transformative shift towards self-sufficiency

🕔08:27, 10.Sep 2021

The National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPCC) closed in Beijing on March 11th. This is the most important event on China’s political calendar, as the NPC approves the main policy objectives that will set the tone for the remainder of the year. This year was especially important, as it also …

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Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations

🕔16:16, 9.Sep 2021

Flash Update: Q2 2021 proved to be another good quarter for banks, beating market expectations once again. These beats were generally driven by better revenues in capital market divisions, especially equity trading and M&A, whilst loan loss provisions continued to

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Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

🕔08:23, 1.Sep 2021

– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis

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Monthly Investment Outlook August 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook August 2021

🕔16:53, 26.Aug 2021

Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy

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China: Transitioning To A Brave New World

China: Transitioning To A Brave New World

🕔09:04, 26.Aug 2021

The return of volatility to China markets. China’s equity markets have been roiled by a combination of concerns in recent weeks, culminating in the fallout from the Archegos family office liquidations in late March. However, this volatility has retraced …

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Dynamic US Dollar Bond: Positioning for rising rates

Dynamic US Dollar Bond: Positioning for rising rates

🕔15:25, 19.Aug 2021

Flash Update: Following the continued improving macroeconomic backdrop, the Fed are expected to signal a cessation of monetary stimulus in the coming months, initially with asset purchase tapering, followed by raising interest rates. In anticipation of such a move, investors

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Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

🕔12:40, 17.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …

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Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

🕔09:37, 13.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –

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Impact investing in emerging markets post COVID-19

Impact investing in emerging markets post COVID-19

🕔09:55, 2.Aug 2021

The dual mandate of impact investing* was immediately tested with the launch of our positive impact emerging portfolio in May 2020, as it coincided with the peak of uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main challenge was to balance

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UBP Participates in Africa’s First SDG-linked Bond

UBP Participates in Africa’s First SDG-linked Bond

🕔15:59, 26.Jul 2021

Flash update: The investment universe of Emerging Market (EM) green, social and sustainability bonds has grown rapidly, and annual issuance has nearly tripled since 2016 (Chart 1). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we saw a significant rise in … For

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Podcast: Vaccine Exports Set to Pick Up Dramatically

Podcast: Vaccine Exports Set to Pick Up Dramatically

🕔11:01, 5.Jul 2021

Flash update: In recent months, we’ve received several questions around the vaccination progress in emerging markets (or lack thereof), and in particular, the progress in frontier markets. For this piece, we hone in on Africa as it makes up over

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Why the Japanese market is performing well again

Why the Japanese market is performing well again

🕔14:45, 2.Jul 2021

Though under the radar since the onset of the global pandemic, Japan’s equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery. Indeed, Japanese equities

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Podcast: Flash Update on EM Investment Grade Corporate Bonds

Podcast: Flash Update on EM Investment Grade Corporate Bonds

🕔11:56, 3.Jun 2021

Key takeaways: Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds appear particularly attractive in a world of very low but rising interest rates This is even more true for non-USD investors, which benefit currently from very low hedging costs As a result,

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Podcast: The sun still rises in the East

Podcast: The sun still rises in the East

🕔13:22, 2.Jun 2021

Assessing opportunities and risks in mainland China: Key takeaways: In a post pandemic world, China offers unique growth prospects China’s share of global asset allocations has increased and the trend is only starting In sharp contrast to many developed markets,

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Why should investors strategically allocate to high-yield CDS indices?

Why should investors strategically allocate to high-yield CDS indices?

🕔16:15, 31.May 2021

Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since

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Podcast: Market Update: AT1s

Podcast: Market Update: AT1s

🕔17:34, 18.May 2021

The European bank earning season has passed and the outlook continues to be positive for AT1s. The vast majority of banks have beaten expectations with capital markets/trading and lower provisions being the main drivers. The expectation, particularly on the provisioning

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Podcast: EUR Cash is not king

Podcast: EUR Cash is not king

🕔16:03, 29.Apr 2021

Flash update: Ever since 2014, deposit rates in Europe have been negative, creating a headache for investors with this phenomenon unlikely to change in the near future. Current market pricing, for instance, does not have the deposit rate returning to

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How to analyse discretionary macro funds

How to analyse discretionary macro funds

🕔15:07, 28.Apr 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

🕔10:18, 19.Apr 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to

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Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

🕔08:16, 19.Mar 2021

According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …

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Podcast: The US economy and the USD credit market are in a stronger position than the euro area

Podcast: The US economy and the USD credit market are in a stronger position than the euro area

🕔12:42, 18.Mar 2021

A pick-up vs. EUR-denominated investment grade bonds of +110 bps, investors lock-in a higher yield in the USD market as hedging costs to EUR remain low …

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Investing Amidst a Tantrum in US Bond Markets

Investing Amidst a Tantrum in US Bond Markets

🕔16:12, 15.Mar 2021

February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …

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UBP: A happy and sustainable 3-year anniversary

UBP: A happy and sustainable 3-year anniversary

🕔10:21, 12.Mar 2021

UBP’s EM Sustainable Corporate Bond strategy was launched three years ago. Since then, the sustainability …

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Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020

Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020

🕔11:21, 11.Mar 2021

Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020 What changed to make renewable energy such an investment success story in 2020, UBP’s Mathieu Negre asks Renewable energy stands out as one of the main stock market success stories of

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