A mature bull market is not something to fear
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …
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Posts From UBP
China’s Five-Year Plan: A transformative shift towards self-sufficiency
The National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPCC) closed in Beijing on March 11th. This is the most important event on China’s political calendar, as the NPC approves the main policy objectives that will set the tone for the remainder of the year. This year was especially important, as it also …
Q2 2021 bank earnings have beaten market expectations
Flash Update: Q2 2021 proved to be another good quarter for banks, beating market expectations once again. These beats were generally driven by better revenues in capital market divisions, especially equity trading and M&A, whilst loan loss provisions continued to
How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
Monthly Investment Outlook August 2021
Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy
China: Transitioning To A Brave New World
The return of volatility to China markets. China’s equity markets have been roiled by a combination of concerns in recent weeks, culminating in the fallout from the Archegos family office liquidations in late March. However, this volatility has retraced …
Dynamic US Dollar Bond: Positioning for rising rates
Flash Update: Following the continued improving macroeconomic backdrop, the Fed are expected to signal a cessation of monetary stimulus in the coming months, initially with asset purchase tapering, followed by raising interest rates. In anticipation of such a move, investors
Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
Impact investing in emerging markets post COVID-19
The dual mandate of impact investing* was immediately tested with the launch of our positive impact emerging portfolio in May 2020, as it coincided with the peak of uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main challenge was to balance
Sustainable Investing in EM Sovereign Debt
In this paper, we will take a closer look at why it is important to systematically evaluate material ESG risk factors in fundamental credit research across emerging market sovereigns. We go on to discuss the ESG framework we developed for
UBP Participates in Africa’s First SDG-linked Bond
Flash update: The investment universe of Emerging Market (EM) green, social and sustainability bonds has grown rapidly, and annual issuance has nearly tripled since 2016 (Chart 1). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we saw a significant rise in … For
Podcast: Vaccine Exports Set to Pick Up Dramatically
Flash update: In recent months, we’ve received several questions around the vaccination progress in emerging markets (or lack thereof), and in particular, the progress in frontier markets. For this piece, we hone in on Africa as it makes up over
Why the Japanese market is performing well again
Though under the radar since the onset of the global pandemic, Japan’s equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery. Indeed, Japanese equities
Podcast: Positive Impact Equity | Performance & positioning
During 2020 the market went through a number of distinct phases from, 1) ignorance of the impending COVID-19 effects (January, February) to, 2) panic (end of February to mid-April) to, 3) the “world will need to change” as a broad
Podcast: Flash Update on EM Investment Grade Corporate Bonds
Key takeaways: Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds appear particularly attractive in a world of very low but rising interest rates This is even more true for non-USD investors, which benefit currently from very low hedging costs As a result,
Podcast: The sun still rises in the East
Assessing opportunities and risks in mainland China: Key takeaways: In a post pandemic world, China offers unique growth prospects China’s share of global asset allocations has increased and the trend is only starting In sharp contrast to many developed markets,
Why should investors strategically allocate to high-yield CDS indices?
Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since
Podcast: Market Update: AT1s
The European bank earning season has passed and the outlook continues to be positive for AT1s. The vast majority of banks have beaten expectations with capital markets/trading and lower provisions being the main drivers. The expectation, particularly on the provisioning
Podcast: EUR Cash is not king
Flash update: Ever since 2014, deposit rates in Europe have been negative, creating a headache for investors with this phenomenon unlikely to change in the near future. Current market pricing, for instance, does not have the deposit rate returning to
How to analyse discretionary macro funds
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
Podcast: Good Momentum for Value and ESG investing
A compelling investment opportunity: Japanese equities offer attractively priced and more visible earnings growth for 2021 and beyond. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are currently trading at a discount to global equities. And Japan equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery.
Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities
According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …
Podcast: The US economy and the USD credit market are in a stronger position than the euro area
A pick-up vs. EUR-denominated investment grade bonds of +110 bps, investors lock-in a higher yield in the USD market as hedging costs to EUR remain low …
Investing Amidst a Tantrum in US Bond Markets
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
UBP: A happy and sustainable 3-year anniversary
UBP’s EM Sustainable Corporate Bond strategy was launched three years ago. Since then, the sustainability …
Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020
Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020 What changed to make renewable energy such an investment success story in 2020, UBP’s Mathieu Negre asks Renewable energy stands out as one of the main stock market success stories of
The Next Leg of Recovery
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
Big Tech: Assessing the threats on the horizon spotlight
With Netflix shaping our entertainment choices and Zoom putting faces to our conversations during this extended period of social distancing, the mobile digital revolution that began with four companies in the early days of the 21st century has acquired new players.
UBP’s small- and mid-cap capabilities
In recent weeks, investors were relieved by the positive newsflow around the successful COVID-19 vaccine trials and subsequent implementation of roll-out programmes. However, experts agree that the positive effects on the recovery and getting back to “normality” is not likely to happen before the end of this year. As 2021 looks like a bumpy road, many investors are willing to increase equity risk and directionality, subject to selectivity.
DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
Podcast: Flash Update – UBP Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income Outlook 2021
Key takeaways: 1) We anticipate that the global growth recovery will remain intact as vaccine distribution will allow economies to gradually normalise, 2) Monetary and fiscal policy shall remain accommodative, 3) We expect this to be a positive environment for credit, whilst interest rate markets have room to breathe higher
Vaccines: Israel and the UAE show the way forward
With vaccines having been rolled out to combat the global pandemic in late-December, perhaps unsurprisingly, two wealthy, small nations – Israel and the UAE – are among the global leaders in deploying them to their domestic populations.
From Paris to Glasgow: the return of the U.S. to the climate fight
The 2016 Paris Agreement is at a critical juncture for at least two reasons. First, it recently celebrated its five-year anniversary. It is far too early to analyse the Agreement’s “achievements”, but that will not stop critics from trying. This scrutiny should be welcomed by those whose fear that not enough attention is being paid to rising temperatures’ grave threat to mankind. After all, 2020 was the second-hottest …
UBP Frontier Debt – 2020 review and 2021 outlook
UBP Frontier Debt 2020 review and 2021 outlook 2020 confirmed the volatility of Frontier Debt, but also its resilience and mean reverting nature Belief in the longer-term merits of the asset class gave UBP the confidence to launch our fund,
The distinguishing features of impact investing
The distinguishing features of impact investing White Paper The growing market According to the Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN), the impact market, which doubled in size in 2018, continued its solid growth in 2020, reaching USD 715 billion. This stunning
Social & Affordable Housing
Social & Affordable Housing White paper This white paper summarises the social and affordable housing (“S&AH”) sector in the United Kingdom and Ireland. There are similarities in the provision of S&AH in each country and in each there is a
Swiss Small and Mid-Cap Equities – Consistent Value Creation
White Paper As in previous crises, the safe-haven status of the Swiss franc and an inflation rate of only 0.2% (as of the end of 2019) have helped Switzerland weather the storm in the past few months. The country has
China: Don’t fret over an increase in corporate bond defaults
Corporate bond defaults were once considered a rare occurrence in China. This is because borrowers have historically relied heavily on financial support from stateowned banks in times of trouble. However, things have started to change in the world’s second largest
Repositioning Portfolios for a Brave New World
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
Looking Ahead to a Brave New World
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
White Paper: European Small Caps – Rising Stars
White Paper: European Small Caps – Rising Stars The big story in 2020 has been the coronavirus pandemic and its impact on the global economy, government finances and corporate earnings, leading to heightened levels of equity market volatility. Smaller companies
A Brave New World
Investment Outlook 2021 According to our scenario, all countries should see renewed growth in 2021. Economies have seen a gradual upturn since summer 2020, although the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and new local restrictions are hampering the recovery at the
UBP – Flash Update: UBAM – Hybrid Bond | opportunity in European Banks AT1 bonds (Podcast)
UBAM – Hybrid Bond Opportunity in European Banks AT1 bonds Key takeaways: Fundamentally, European banks are solid with strong capital ratios and should exit the Covid-19 crisis unscathed The macro picture continues to improve, assisted by significant central bank support
Flash Update – Investment Views
Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income For Professional Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors as defined by the relevant laws Key takeaways: ■ The outcome of the US elections has reduced hopes of a large fiscal package being passed next
UBP AM – On track since launch: U Access – Long/Short Japan Corporate Governance
On track since launch: U Access – Long/Short Japan Corporate Governance Key takeaways: U Access – Long/Short Japan Corporate Governance maintained its gross and net exposure in line with the investment philosophy. We can report a constant increase of Assets
UBP – Flash Update: EM Sustainable Corporate Bond crosses the USD 100 million mark (Podcast)
Flash update: UBAM – EM Sustainable Corporate Bond Podcast Key takeaways Demand for responsible investment is on the rise and pushed AUMs in UBAM – EM Sustainable Corporate Bond fund above USD 100 mln The fund outperforms YTD, thanks notably
UBP – Global Fintech Equity – Product Card
The fintech industry offers a growing and diversified investment universe with more than USD 2 tn market cap depth. Around 180 companies specialising in global payments, financial IT infrastructure, networks & security, data and analytics, insurtech and regtech as well
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