In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
Key points The surge in inflation in 2021 combined with the sharp fall in unemployment leaves two of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy objectives within reach as the year comes to a close. Moreover, with US housing prices rising
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
UBP’s 30 Global Leaders Equity strategy offers an efficiently diversified exposure to 30 high and stable CFROI® (Cash Flow Return on Investment, source Credit Suisse HOLT) large cap companies. The strategy shows superior and resilient levels of value creation (CFROI®
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
KEY TAKEAWAYS The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months. As a result and
The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …
The Swiss small and mid-cap equity segment offers exposure to a balanced and diversified universe of value creative companies. Beyond its 40% concentration in the three names, Nestlé, Roche and Novartis, the large cap space is often …
ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.
With the benefits of public sector largesse of 2020 and 2021 now fading, economies around the world are increasingly reliant on private sector demand and an increase in global trade to continue the pandemic-era expansion currently underway. However, the partially
During 2020 the market went through a number of distinct phases from, 1) ignorance of the impending COVID-19 effects (January, February) to, 2) panic (end of February to mid-April) to, 3) the “world will need to change” as a broad
A decline in the ecosystem services that nature provides will initially pose a direct physical risk to businesses as harvests become more unreliable, weather patterns change and pollinators no longer support agriculture. The risk is both event-driven, e.g. flooding or
Podcast: Inflation has come to the forefront recently. In that respect, senior loans – also known as bank loans or leveraged loans – are drawing interest from investors looking for an income solution with … Access the content here: For
Many will cite the suspension of the Ant Group IPO in November, 2020 as kicking off the crackdown on China’s ‘Big Tech’ companies and presaging the July, 2021 crackdowns across a wider range of industries. However, the regulatory foundations for
Travel restrictions have remained in place in Asia, as markets in Europe and North America have gradually moved towards reopening over the summer. This took place even against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases. The justification behind …
A compelling investment opportunity: Japanese equities offer attractively priced and more visible earnings growth for 2021 and beyond. Nevertheless, Japanese equities are currently trading at a discount to global equities. And Japan equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery.
Global investors are facing a serious conundrum. While core yields have sold off, they remain very low by historical standards. In addition, most spread assets offer spreads that are also at historically tight levels. The combination means … Access the
The dominant theme in emerging markets over the last few weeks has been Chinese corporate bonds, particularly high-yield issuers, which have cheapened markedly in recent months as the Chinese government tightened policies, particularly in the … Access the content here:
CDS indices outperformed bonds and behaved better in times of stress thanks to better liquidity High-yield CDS indices have outperformed the high-yield bond market over the long term regardless of the interest rate exposure, as illustrated in Figure 3. This
Welcome to the first edition of the UBP Impact Newsletter. Between the annual impact report and the regular thought pieces the team produces, we felt that our clients – current and future – would welcome a more informal update from
In this paper, we will take a closer look at why it is important to systematically evaluate material ESG risk factors in fundamental credit research across emerging market sovereigns. We go on to discuss the ESG framework we developed for
Inflation? The debate about inflation has been hotting up. During the earnings season, many companies flagged up the fact that they were experiencing higher supply costs. In April, the latest US CPI print – a measure of inflation in the
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …
The National People’s Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPCC) closed in Beijing on March 11th. This is the most important event on China’s political calendar, as the NPC approves the main policy objectives that will set the tone for the remainder of the year. This year was especially important, as it also …
Flash Update: Q2 2021 proved to be another good quarter for banks, beating market expectations once again. These beats were generally driven by better revenues in capital market divisions, especially equity trading and M&A, whilst loan loss provisions continued to
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy
The return of volatility to China markets. China’s equity markets have been roiled by a combination of concerns in recent weeks, culminating in the fallout from the Archegos family office liquidations in late March. However, this volatility has retraced …
Flash Update: Following the continued improving macroeconomic backdrop, the Fed are expected to signal a cessation of monetary stimulus in the coming months, initially with asset purchase tapering, followed by raising interest rates. In anticipation of such a move, investors
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
The dual mandate of impact investing* was immediately tested with the launch of our positive impact emerging portfolio in May 2020, as it coincided with the peak of uncertainty related to the COVID-19 pandemic. The main challenge was to balance
Flash update: The investment universe of Emerging Market (EM) green, social and sustainability bonds has grown rapidly, and annual issuance has nearly tripled since 2016 (Chart 1). Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, we saw a significant rise in … For
Flash update: In recent months, we’ve received several questions around the vaccination progress in emerging markets (or lack thereof), and in particular, the progress in frontier markets. For this piece, we hone in on Africa as it makes up over
Though under the radar since the onset of the global pandemic, Japan’s equity markets have outpaced major developed market equities both in 2020 and year-to-date in 2021 as the world seeks to transition to a post-pandemic recovery. Indeed, Japanese equities
Key takeaways: Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds appear particularly attractive in a world of very low but rising interest rates This is even more true for non-USD investors, which benefit currently from very low hedging costs As a result,
Assessing opportunities and risks in mainland China: Key takeaways: In a post pandemic world, China offers unique growth prospects China’s share of global asset allocations has increased and the trend is only starting In sharp contrast to many developed markets,
Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since
The European bank earning season has passed and the outlook continues to be positive for AT1s. The vast majority of banks have beaten expectations with capital markets/trading and lower provisions being the main drivers. The expectation, particularly on the provisioning
Flash update: Ever since 2014, deposit rates in Europe have been negative, creating a headache for investors with this phenomenon unlikely to change in the near future. Current market pricing, for instance, does not have the deposit rate returning to
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …
A pick-up vs. EUR-denominated investment grade bonds of +110 bps, investors lock-in a higher yield in the USD market as hedging costs to EUR remain low …
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
UBP’s EM Sustainable Corporate Bond strategy was launched three years ago. Since then, the sustainability …
Why renewable energy has come of age in 2020 What changed to make renewable energy such an investment success story in 2020, UBP’s Mathieu Negre asks Renewable energy stands out as one of the main stock market success stories of
