Financial markets have started the year with an ‘everything rally’ as fears over the potential for an imminent recession – concerns we argued were misplaced – have receded. There are two key drivers of the price action, in our view.
Introduction This paper examines our bottom-up default outlook and total return forecasts for 2023. The fxed income default study is based on a proprietary, bond by bond analysis conducted by our dedicated team of credit analysts. The team utilises reference
Paving the way for 2023 (and beyond): The infrastructure sector remains resilient despite the market turmoil in 2022. Secular trends such as digitalization and decarbonization will continue to drive the need for new investments. However, macro conditions have worsened significantly.
We have witnessed the evolution and growth of ESG over recent years and now for many investors it is front and center on their agendas and a growing part of the overall picture. The science (as it relates to the
Emerging markets feel the impact of developed markets policy mistakes. Emerging markets fixed income delivered negative total returns in Q3, mostly in response to developed market (DM) policy mistakes and reversals. EM spreads tightened on cheap valuations and lack of
Energy storage has the potential to help reduce the carbon footprint and is proving to be a timely solution in the transition from thermal-power generation to sustainably sourced energy.
UBS Hedge Fund Solutions Third Quarter 2022 The macro narrative is largely centered around central banks trying to curb inflation without slowing down the economy too much. Nevertheless, risk of global recession is rising and markets are starting to anticipate
This marks the third iteration of the Global Family Office Survey. UBS surveyed 221 of its clients globally between 19 January and 20 February 2022. Participants were invited using an online methodology and were distributed across more than 30 markets
Our world is constantly changing. People are redefining the way they live, work and interact. Expectations from our clients, investors, employees and society are also evolving, and so should we. In April 2021, after a wide-ranging review, including cross-firm brainstorming
Real Estate Outlook – Edition 1, 2022 The economic recovery continues, albeit interrupted by Omicron, and the war in Ukraine poses a new risk. Global real estate volumes reached a record high, driven by domestic buyers. Falls in office and
Balancing pricing and rental growth in European logistics Core industrial property prices have never been as elevated as they are now, so selecting assets for which occupiers will pay higher rents is increasingly crucial to investment performance, argues UBS Asset
What is private credit? Private credit strategies can provide investors with the opportunity to outperform traditional credit markets whilst maintaining a stable income base. Market opportunity The present market environment represents a highly challenging landscape for income-seeking investors. With the
In our annual look into the year ahead, our research team gives answers to some of the key questions that real estate investors face. A year ago, the impact of COVID-19 vaccines was at the forefront of everybody’s minds. Our
Shifting sustainable gears… The turn of the year is always a good time to look forward and consider what the enduring trends are –and what tail events might derail our baseline thinking. 2021 serves as an important reminder that sticking
Real Estate Outlook – Edition 4, 2021: The global economy slowed in the third quarter, hit by a combination of supply chain constraints and the Delta variant of COVID-19. Business surveys reported that manufacturing production is lagging behind orders as
Recent trends – a clear focus on climate change UBS has been a pioneer in the sustainability ETF space since 2011, through a journey that has led us to become the second largest sustainable ETF provider in Europe, with 34bn
In recent years, the concept of minimum ESG requirements has evolved, with additional business activity exclusions and climate considerations becoming the new norm.
The options for institutional investors to gain exposure to ESG have never been greater. The public markets, for example, have seen net new money into sustainable investment funds increase from USD 17.5 billion in the first …
Recovery in the economy and real estate investment markets gathered pace in the second quarter, though the new Delta variant of the virus poses a threat. Real estate showed strong returns in the first half of the year, driven by
27th Reserve Management Seminar UBS RMS Survey is among the most authoritative depictions of official reserve management activities available. This survey was conducted during April – June 2021 and collected responses from close to 30 central banks from all regions
On 7 June 2021, the G7 agreed to make climate reporting mandatory, in line with the recommendations of the global Taskforce on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD). Climate risk looks at the risks related to the transition to a lowercarbon economy,
Over the last few years, the private equity industry has radically reassessed the importance and value of ESG to their businesses. ESG has shifted from being considered an area of just compliance, to an overarching framework that informs the strategic
The Covid-19 pandemic has brought unprecedented uncertainty to financial markets. Yet the demand for sustainable ETFs in Europe has been…
ESG factors play an important role in initial investment decisions, as well as the ongoing monitoring of holdings and fund managers after investment. Investors should identify and address material ESG risks and opportunities, both prior to investment and during the ownership period not only when investing directly, but also indirectly …
A catalyst for diversification Five-year capital market assumptions UBS Investment Solutions provides estimates of capital market returns across a wide array of asset classes and from multiple currency perspectives.1 For this paper, we focus on our fiveyear baseline expected geometric
A step towards a more transparent future Developing a sustainable future is enhanced by incorporating third-party benchmarking and certifications for all property types. There is now a proliferation of standards, ratings, and certification programs globally to help guide, demonstrate, and
Humanity is facing two important trends. Over the next 30 years, our numbers will grow and our average age will increase. These demographic trends are taking place alongside huge structural shifts. The Fourth Industrial Revolution—powered by automation and connectivity—and the
In 2021, the IMF expects 8.2% y-o-y GDP growth for China, 6.0% for India, and 2.4% for Japan; COVID-19 is having a severe short-term impact on Asia, but the long-term impact should be small; Asian stocks look cheap compared to
As part of the UBS Nobel Perspectives program, our webinar series allows you to ask your questions directly to Nobel Laureates in Economic Sciences. UBS Nobel Perspectives addresses the questions shaping our world, cutting through the noise, and holding the
Intermediate projections of the economy and capital markets – five-year outlook The equity rally that retraced much of the February through March drop signals that the market is pricing in a relatively quick economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. However,
Panorama Six months ago, as we discussed topics for our year-end edition of Panorama, our investment team debated the most …
Research Blast It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in
Fixed income investors are entering a new world. This new world is considerably more volatile – and correlated – than the past. Global economic uncertainty has pushed annualised volatility of some developed country bonds to double-digit levels. But investors are also in
Talking Points If working from home, social distancing and de-globalization become the new norm, the very definition of infrastructure investing could change. It may be foolish for us to try to imagine what the long-term future would look like, when
After a strong rally from the March lows, equity markets have been range-bound. Investors are weighing hopes of a recovery against fears of a “second wave” of virus cases, high valuations, and US-China trade tensions. In this letter, we offer
An ongoing debate continues around defining a common taxonomy, improving quality and availability of information and, importantly, reaching an understanding of the ways in which ESG integration impacts risk and returns. The view that ESG issues are merely non-financial risks
Real estate and sustainability in APAC With both events likely to witness widespread damage to public health, disruption to economic systems, and yet face solutions that can be guided by scientific evidence, parallels between the COVID-19 outbreak and the climate
Sustainable ETFs During the Coronavirus period, the majority of ESG index portfolios delivered better relative returns compared to broad markets. It has emerged as a consistent pattern with ESG outperforming throughout market corrections in recent years. It underscores that companies
The lasting changes caused by the pandemic The surge in equity market volatility during the current COVID-19 crisis is indicative of the overwhelming uncertainty and fear investors are feeling. This environment creates tremendous opportunities, but diligence and adherence to a
Just a month ago, we didn’t know whether western democracies’ unprecedented lockdowns would be sufficient to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Now, markets have risen sharply as investors have dared to look beyond the peak of the pandemic. Given
We revisit our scenario analysis and consider the next three phases of the coronavirus crisis Just a month ago, we didn’t know whether western democracies’ unprecedented lockdowns would be sufficient to slow the spread of the coronavirus. Now, markets have
The unprecedented measures taken by governments across the world aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19 has significantly impacted economic activity. Prior to the emergence of this pandemic, much had been publicized about the re-leveraging and general deterioration in quality
Research Blast – COVID-19 European Office Markets Series, edition 1 Within a matter of weeks, COVID-19 has caused an unprecedented level of disruption to all asset classes. Office real estate markets are by no means immune to this, but due to
We examine how we see the interplay of health, monetary, and fiscal policy impacting markets World leaders have made unprecedented decisions around the costs and benefits of temporarily restricting economic activity to limit the spread of an infectious disease. The
Macro Quarterly Macroeconomic themes and tactical asset allocation opportunities The spread of the coronavirus outside of China, oil price collapse and sharp tightening of financial conditions have put the global economy on the brink of recession. Whether or not the
UBS House View World leaders have made unprecedented decisions around the costs and benefits of temporarily restricting economic activity to limit the spread of an infectious disease. The social distancing measures now in place across much of the world—ranging from
UBS House View, Monthly Letter Impeachment, Brexit, airstrikes, an epidemic, and yet the S&P 500 is at new highs. This is already a year for the history books, and we are just getting started. We began the year overweight in equities,
Billionaires Insight 2019 The past 30 to 40 years stand out as a time of exceptional innovation in business. The pace of economic change has been faster than at any other time in history. A relatively small number of entrepreneurs
Why middle-market infrastructure has a place in every investor’s portfolio Can you define what middle market means within private infrastructure? First of all, the phrase “middle market” is a bit opaque in our industry. In my mind, it involves equity
Asset allocation Some back and forth between China and the US regarding a potential Phase 1 trade deal has kept investors busy over the past month and caused some market volatility. As the December 15 deadline approaches and the outcome
