With inflation running at a 40-year high and the Fed taking aggressive measures, is now the time to allocate to US small cap stocks? Despite their generally lower margins, US small caps have three critical things on their side right
Stocks and bonds have pulled back since the Fed clarified its commitment to fighting inflation. Despite volatility, we believe equities will stay within a broad trading range and not retest earlier lows. Rising yields, particularly among spread assets, should make
Fixed Income Perspectives – September 2022 Inflation is likely to be the driving market force through mid-2023 at least. The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, though somewhat higher than expected, don’t change our outlook for inflation or Fed policy,
When Volatility Overstays Its Welcome, Opportunity Knocks Like many other market participants, we’re laser focused on inflation in the second half of 2022. While the July inflation reading came in below expectations, our optimism remains tempered. Much of the decline
Big data is fueling, informing and empowering businesses globally. As growthoriented investors, we see opportunities in best-in-class companies that are creating the technologies driving big data services. Highlights The demand for high-octane data has permeated every sector, with technologyrelated investments
It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to warp
It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to warp
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives | 3Q22 It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war
Last month, we noted the end of an era. After more than a decade, the market’s main measuring stick for macroeconomic risk shifted from what the Federal Reserve might do, to what the Fed will be forced to do. It’s
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine offers lessons for navigating the effects of future crises on equity portfolios. Beyond the more obvious dynamics, we have observed that U.S. stocks have other forms of direct and indirect exposures to this conflict. These
Ample runway for further value outperformance After a long run for growth-oriented companies, value names have outperformed more recently. We polled our LinkedIn audience to find out which investing style—growth or value—they think will outperform in 2022. The majority favored
Voya Perspectives Series | May 13 – May 19, 2022 The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned -0.44% for the seven-day period ended May 19. Although the last two trading sessions were more volatile, in line with broader market
Is This What “Unprecedented and Extraordinary” Actually Feels Like? Unprecedented and extraordinary. For more than a decade, this was the description for actions taken by the Federal Reserve to keep the economy—and by extension, risk assets—on track. If you wanted
Loan prices sharply retreated this week due to spiking volatility across global financial markets, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index’) experienced some of the worst daily marks since March 2020. Overall, the Index lost 2.05% for the sevenday
In an eventful week in which the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps, the loan market was not immune to the continued selling pressure and negative sentiment that has plagued performance in other assets for virtually the entirety of
Following the bond market’s recent beating, term yields have already priced in aggressive Fed rate hikes, positioning core bonds to effectively diversify credit risk.
The world and markets continuously change, but over the first three months of 2022 there have been shocking shifts in the landscape and asset prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught many off-guard. Beyond the terrible hardships this war has already
Strong funded ratios and higher interest rates are prompting many corporate pension plan sponsors to shift assets to LDI strategies. If you’re still waiting, consider a hedging portfolio built on public corporate credit, complemented with non-traditional hedging assets.
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground lost in February, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned 0.54% for the seven-day period ended March 31. The Index saw
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index
Through the melee of mounting inflation, flaring geopolitical risks and subsequently volatile capital markets, the U.S. Federal Reserve met market expectations and increased the target federal funds rate by 25 basis points (bps) while also validating market assumptions for how
Fixed Income Perspectives Less than two months into the new year, global central bank policy has turned more hawkish. The Bank of England hiked rates 25 basis points (bps) in early February, while the European Central Bank announced it would
In the television series “Mission Impossible,” the protagonist would receive instructions that began with the famous line: “Your mission, should you choose to accept it…”. When asked to integrate environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors into their investment process, portfolio
As the U.S. economy climbs out of the pandemic doldrums, U.S. housing lays a solid foundation for sustainable value creation While the U.S. economy spent much of 2021 battling its way out of the pandemic-induced doldrums, the U.S. housing market
Fixed Income Perspectives Bond Market Outlook Global Rates: Yields to edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar to remain range-bound as market balances global Covid concerns, hawkish central bank policies Investment Grade:
December caped off a good year for the asset class, as the Index returned 0.64% for the month, bringing the full-year return to 5.20%. Following November’s softness, the average Index bid price moved up by 49 bps in the final
Global Rates: Yields edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar remains resilient versus DM, EM currencies, acting as a market barometer of COVID concerns Investment Grade: Despite Fed and virus uncertainty, we see spreads
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Multiple forces conspired to reduce the outlook for U.S. and global growth over the last three months. Equity market pricing reset lower in September, as Covid continued to confound health experts and frustrate those anxious to resume
Executive Summary: Will the Next Decade Look Like the Last? Help Needed—Traditional Approaches Can No Longer Do It All: While traditional core and core plus fixed income strategies have historically served as a “one-stop shop” allocation to balance risk-seeking allocations,
Fixed Income Perspectives: U.S. consumer prices see their largest increase since 2008, topping all estimates. That summarizes headlines about recent inflation data. Since the beginning of this year, our view has been that the change …
In a week marked by volatility in broad risk markets related to concerns around inflation, the U.S. loan market maintained a steady pace, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Index (the “Index”) posted an advance of 0.09% for the seven-day period ended
The longest U.S. equity bull market in history has officially come to an end; extinguished by a viral pandemic that seemed unimaginable just three months ago. The velocity of the sell-off was also difficult to fathom. In just over one
While much uncertainty remains, one aspect of the COVID-19 market shock is clear: The Fed will not stand in the way of the economic recovery. By the end of March, the COVID-19 global pandemic had a deep and profound effect on virtually
Time to own durable yield for the Zero Interest Rate world ahead Going forward, fundamentals are likely to be defined by a sharp global recession followed by a stubbornly low growth world coupled with the odd bedfellows of high debt
Talking Points U.S. loan performance was steady this week amid volatility in other major markets stemming from talk of the potential economic impact of Covid-19. The S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index gained 0.12% for the seven day period ended Feb. 20,
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives The U.S. economy continues to do well: 3Q19 real GDP grew at 2.1% and the Atlanta Federal Reserve GDPNow is forecasting 2.3% 4Q19 growth. This would mark another above-trend quarter and three consecutive above-trend years. Consumers continue
Fixed Income Perspectives Entering the first half of 2020, our portfolios are positioned to reflect six key themes. Political Uncertainty: Slower global growth has exacerbated ongoing tensions arising from the increasingly unequal distributions of income and wealth, fueled in part by global trade
Our 2020 Capital Market Assumptions details our research on asset class returns, standard deviations of returns and correlations over the 2020–2029 timeframe. These estimates are a key input into our strategic asset allocation process for our multi-asset portfolios; they also
Good Tidings for Investors Heading into Year-End Global equities continued their climb, considerably outperforming bonds through November and the first half of December. Within U.S. stocks, relative returns across the capitalization spectrum were fairly tight. Growth outperformed value but cyclical
2020 Outlook Entering 2019, our view was that strength in U.S. consumption would sustain U.S. economic expansion. This investment thesis has largely played out (despite concerns about overleveraged corporations, weakening manufacturing, and the roller coaster ride of U.S.-China trade negotiations).
Over the past few weeks, Eurozone and U.S. economic and manufacturing data releases have started showing early signs of stabilization. In the United States, PMI data have trended sideways of late. Industrial production missed expectations, but much of the weakness
Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in stocks was led
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in
Fixed Income Perspectives News of negative rates in the U.S., recessionary fears, and U.S.-China trade negotiations continue to grab headlines. However, on the stage of doom and gloom, one actor is noticeably absent: Unsustainable leverage on corporate balance sheets. It
Broad market volatility spilled into the loan market this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) lost -0.41% for the five business days ended Oct. 10, led lower by a 51 basis points reduction in the Index bid
Global equity markets declined over August, as trade tensions between the United States and China escalated. Throughout the month it became increasingly clear that neither side was willing to budge on its position and tariffs planned for September would indeed
The yield curve regained the limelight in August when yields on ten-year Treasury notes dipped below yields on two-year notes, the dreaded “inversion” that caused markets to sell off. Remember, an inverted yield curve represents fear of a recession; it
Oversold Conditions and Dovish Policy Shift Trigger Rebound in Stocks May’s sharp sell-off in stocks was swiftly countered by a rally in June that helped drive global equity markets to their best first half-year performance in over two decades. The
Economic growth is slowing; the question now is whether it will stabilize near trend. Global manufacturing has declined for 15 months and is still contracting; inventories are building and business confidence has diminished. Adding on to these challenges, President Trump’s
Below is an overview of the key macroeconomic developments we expect to help determine our overall risk budget and inform our bottom-up security selection process in the second half of 2019:
