Interest Rate Outlook Eurozone, USA We enter 2020 with optimism. The political upheavals that defined 2019 should diminish. Although none of the issues have been resolved, they should exert no pressure on the markets for the better part of the
Uncommon truths It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Despite current geopolitical tensions, our surprises display a sense of hope (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what may happen even if they
Insight An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the UK will “not
This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
In 2019, RPM portfolios again delivered mixed results in a difficult market environment with little exploitable time series momentum (TSMOM) outside of fixed income markets. After an initial sell-off, the year was characterized by a major bond rally on the
The pace of global growth has slowed significantly during the past two years. After peaking at over 4% in 2017, it has softened to just above 3% at present, well below its two-decade average of nearly 3.7%.1 A number of
FocusPoint In the current low-yield environment, European fixed income investors need to look to alternative asset categories to increase the yield of their portfolios. Given the current stage of the credit cycle, though, they generally have no desire to increase
Morningstar Investment Management Insights Welcome to the new year. As many readers will know, we tend to assign our yearly outlooks over a 10-year plus horizon, not one. That said, we do believe we have a role to play in
CIO View, Chart of the Week As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were
What are ESG criteria? ESG (Environmental, Social and Governance) criteria are non-financial analytical criteria used to evaluate how companies take sustainable development into account in relation to their operations and medium to long-term strategy. They are broken down into three
Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that
Investment Insights Blue Paper Fixed income: attractive yields in rangebound markets Following the three rate cuts agreed by the Fed last year, the bar for delivering further accommodation is high, and the central bank may be willing to allow some
The Big Picture 2019 has been a good year with strong returns on a broad range of assets. The global economy has decelerated but we hope policy easing will stabilise things during 2020 (the wing and a prayer). Our favoured
Macro-Economic Outlook for 2020 – Manufacturing activity has fallen to levels not seen since the global financial crisis; rising trade and geopolitical tensions raise downside risks to business activity – But domestic demand is holding up well – And discussions
Global economy: Trade tensions and broader uncertainty drag on demand and supply The continued slowdown in global growth foreseen a year ago has been accentuated during 2019 by a deterioration in the global industrial cycle. A broad escalation of policy
The Strategic Perspective. Looking out into the horizon, we believe the next decade will be vastly different. Extraordinary measures by central banks pulled us out of the Great Recession and encouraged investors to take on excess risk. Global asset prices
The Strategic Perspective. Looking out into the horizon, we believe the next decade will be vastly different. Extraordinary measures by central banks pulled us out of the Great Recession and encouraged investors to take on excess risk. Global asset prices
Weekly commentary – We favor a cautious tilt into cyclical assets, with expectations for a rebound in global trade and manufacturing activity. – We see global growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next six to 12 months, thanks
Week Ahead The ECB’s Governing Council will meet next week. Both the meeting and the following press conference by President Lagarde should be uneventful. In any case, monetary policy is not at issue. New indications regarding the course of the
Davos Brief The global economic expansion is stretching, but powerful structural trends are testing limits — and intersecting with the near-term outlook. The trends include rising inequality and social unrest; deglobalization and fragmentation into trade blocs; an intensifying focus on
Key Messages 1. Lessons from the US-Iran conflict. Last week, Iran executed its announced retaliation, firing missiles against US military bases in Iraq. Oil prices jumped 5% and S&P 500 futures pointed to a 1.7% lower start to the day
Samenvatting De strategie geeft aan waar de AFM zich de komende jaren op gaat richten. De AFM-strategie 2020-2022 bouwt voort op de vernieuwing en versterking van het toezicht die de afgelopen jaren is ingezet en beweegt mee met wat er in de buitenwereld gebeurt.
This follows a very strong, but somewhat unanticipated performance in 2019, largely off the back of substantial gains in the equities market. The outlook for the wealthy improved over the last few months of 2019, yet worries remain over febrile
Capital Market Line Last year proved to be a turning point. Word of an imminent trade deal between the US and China represented a peak in trade escalation and uncertainty. Global manufacturing – the epicenter of the trade war – began to
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
