Global Perspectives – february 2020 2019 was the culmination of an exceptionally strong decade for equity markets. By some measures the past 10 years have seen the longest uninterrupted economic expansion in US history and the longest bull market ever.
2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the euro, and support for the single currency among euro area citizens reached an all-time high of 76% in the November Eurobarometer poll.
Outlook 2020 The recurring theme of this outlook can be summarized in just two words: ‘what if?’. We expect the economic expansion to last a little longer, and the equity bull market to enter the last leg of a near
Macroeconomic update Infrastructure investing ESG investing Global fixed income Emerging markets Liability-driven investing
Equity markets surged back in the first quarter of 2019, but it was only towards the end that we saw investor confidence start to recover. The first move by investors was to defend their core equity positioning and consider reducing
Contents 4–25 Economy 26–39 Equities 40–49 Fixed income 50–60 Real assets 61–72 Alternative investments 73–79 Currencies 80–100 Asset allocation
Investors once again showed their dissatisfaction with underperforming products with elevated redemptions in March 2019. The outflows were enough to push Q1 into negative territory, which also made Q1 2019 the fourth consecutive quarter of redemptions for the industry. Despite
Welcome to the third edition of the Bond Compass. This global, quarterly report leverages analysis from State Street Global Markets showing bond flows and holdings indicators from Q1 2019, taken from a data set that represents $10 trillion1 of assets.
House View Q2 2019 According to the IMF, global growth was estimated to be 3.7 per cent in 2018, a similar rate of increase to that seen in 2017. When taken together, the past two years represent the strongest period
Trade disputes and country-specific issues dampen the global growth outlook and lead to elevated volatility in financial markets. Central banks have postponed their expected rate hikes and safe haven investments are moreover benefiting from the threat of a hard Brexit.
Frontier markets slumped in line with other non-dollar denominated markets in 2018; though outside of Argentina (which fell by -50%), frontier markets as a whole outperformed even the U.S. (see TABLE 1). Almost all of the positive contribution in 2018
Don’t fight the Fed The 2019 rally in global equities continued in February as signs of an impending resolution to the US-China trade war emerged and the US Federal Reserve continued its shift begun in January to more overtly dovish
2019’s Investment Regime Will Likely Be Influenced Early On by Two Major Factors Coming from Policy Circles While predicting the course of markets for the year ahead is always a nearly impossible task, it is likely to be particularly challenging
Review of 2018, Preview of 2019 If the experience of investors could be described in meteorological terms, 2018 would surely be represented by cold drizzle punctuated by infrequent, but fairly terrifying, thunderstorms. The reliably warm and nourishing sunshine of 2017
Global Intelligence Our look at the year ahead Macroeconomic update Private markets ESG investing Asian fixed income Global fixed income U.S. equity Global
Summary Edition This report is a summary version of the full Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2019, which is available in hardcopy only and contains four deep-dive chapters of analysis leveraging this unique dataset. The first chapter of the
2019 Outlook We see increasing value in bonds and cash, especially relative to equities. US government bond yields have risen significantly over the past 12 months and, contrary to popular opinion, our assessment is that they will not rise dramatically
Managing risk is key in highly volatile markets Global growth should remain sustained in 2019, but it will offer rising disparities among countries and the cycle will be desynchronised across the main regions. Despite an apparent truce in US-China trade
Q1 2019 | Capital Markets Outlook As the S&P 500 Index teetered on the verge of a bear market at year-end, we fielded numerous questions about the prospects for an impending recession. Our answer is that we do not expect
Macroeconomic backdrop We believe that global macroeconomic growth will modestly decelerate in 2019. Against that backdrop, central banks are likely to tread much more cautiously along the path of monetary policy normalisation. We expect corporate earnings to expand more slowly
Research & Strategy Insights As many democratic systems have emerged across developing countries, investors have had to be particularly vigilant around political events, such as presidential and general elections. In numerous emerging markets (EM), election years have historically coincided with
Global economy decelerates as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade After enjoying solid and accelerating global growth in 2017 and the first half of 2018, momentum has waned and we expect this trend to continue into 2019. Financial conditions have worsened
Global Investment Views Kick-off 2019 with courage and discipline After a tough December, which led to an abrupt valuation reset, risk assets rebounded in the first weeks of the year, boosted by a market-sympathetic turn in Fed rhetoric and an
Outlooks & Conviction Central bank liquidity should continue to contract but much less markedly as most of the ground was covered in 2018. Elsewhere, we expect the Fed to continue raising rates, but its new optionality now makes it less
Maintaining flexibility, being currency aware and searching out pockets of values are themes for 2019. PIMCO’s European wealth management team recently met to discuss the state of markets and our outlook for intermediary clients in Europe. Drawing on a survey
Key Forecast Trends When 2018 began, the global economy was in a cyclical sweet spot. But gathering headwinds—including those caused by debt, demographic trends and populism—changed that, leading to slower growth and poor risk-asset returns. Investors who expected last year
Investment View In 2018 zagen we in bijna alle beleggingscategorieën het rendement dalen en de volatiliteit het gehele jaar door toenemen, met name als gevolg van politieke gebeurtenissen wereldwijd. Gezien de goedkopere waarderingen en onze constructieve vooruitzichten voor de handelsspanningen
We are upgrading the likelihood of three of our geopolitical risks, even as overall market attention to geopolitics has edged down recently. We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth
Themes and implications from the Global Equity Investors Quarterly After a year of weak returns and an environment in which traditional style factors underperformed, many of our investors now see an above-average level of opportunity across areas of global stock
Global Macro Outlook Economic Slowdown at Diverging Rates
Slowdowns, Sentiment and Suggestion – What does 2019 have in Store for Investors? As we transitioned into 2019, it seemed that financial markets were gripped by fears of impending economic slowdown, which helped to fuel flight-to-quality trades, as markets continued
Economic and asset allocation views Q1 2019 Most investors will be glad to see the back of 2018 when both US equity and government bond markets generated returns that were lower than cash. Such an outcome has only been registered
January 2019 Growth concerns and tightening liquidity weighed on markets in 2018 and look set to continue in 2019. As the European Central Bank ends QE, we estimate that global liquidity will contract further this year, keeping pressure on some
Economic and asset allocation views Q1 2019 Most investors will be glad to see the back of 2018 when both US equity and government bond markets generated returns that were lower than cash. Such an outcome has only been registered
Recovery, Rebalancing and Rotation Last year was one that many investors in Asian bonds might like to forget. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index was 4% weaker, the benchmark J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) was down 0.77% overall, and
January 2019 Modest total returns and above-average volatility may define the risk asset landscape in 2019 as economic and corporate earnings growth slow.
Navigating Fearful Markets Our central economic scenario is relatively benign. We see a modest slowdown in global growth in 2019, with limited inflationary pressure. The implication is that interest rates rise only gradually in the U.S. and not at all in
January 2019 Modest total returns and above-average volatility may define the risk asset landscape in 2019 as economic and corporate earnings growth slow.
A few “wildcards” hold the key to returns in 2019 Policy reversals relative to expectations drove much of the unique pattern of returns in 2018. From trade to the Fed, fiscal policy and global growth, asset returns which surged in
First to Neutral We are neutral risk as we enter 2019 with the global economy slowing, U.S. monetary policy tightening and trade tensions introducing further risks to a slowing China. We don’t expect a recession to unfold over the next
First to Neutral We are neutral risk as we enter 2019 with the global economy slowing, U.S. monetary policy tightening and trade tensions introducing further risks to a slowing China. We don’t expect a recession to unfold over the next
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Monthly January 2019 All in all we believe that global risk is still asymmetric as the process of repricing growth expectations and the related adjustments of risk premia unfolds, leading to a restoration of value across
in welke richting zal de balans overhellen? De internationale instellingen (en vooral het IMF) pleiten er al meerdere jaren voor om het economische model te laten evolueren naar een duurzamere, inclusieve groei(1). Alle grote economieën worden immers met dezelfde megatrends
First Quarter 2019 Advancing with caution While the fundamental macro calls throughout 2018 were largely correct, the market reaction was less constructive at the end of the year. Despite global gross domestic product (GDP) growth remaining above trend in 2018
2019 Outlook We see increasing value in bonds and cash, especially relative to equities. US government bond yields have risen significantly over the past 12 months and, contrary to popular opinion, our assessment is that they will not rise dramatically
UBS House View – Weekly Global No major asset classes performed well last year. Indeed, in terms of the breadth of the weakness, with only two of the 19 major asset classes we cover delivering (meager) positive returns, it was
Regional view – Asia In 2019, we expect export growth to slow – in line with slower global economic activity – which should cut Asia's GDP growth by 0.4ppt to 5.8%.
Economie draait goed, piek voorbij Volgend jaar draait de Nederlandse economie nog goed, maar de piek is achter de rug. De krapte op de arbeidsmarkt blijft toenemen. De overheid houdt een duidelijk overschot op de begroting. Belangrijkste neerwaartse risico’s voor
