A gradual transition toward a more 'normal' mid-cycle… We think global growth has peaked but will remain above average, boosted by broadening consumption and surging capex. A return to more 'normal' has already started but will likely take more time
The primary focus of this analysis is a contemporary evaluation of alternative investments represented by CTAs, Risk Premia, and Hedge Funds. We use Risk Premia as a proxy for passive/semi-passive investments in alternative strategies and contrast that with the active
The past month has seen geopolitics move back into the headlines as the United States and its allies made a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reflecting on the often messy resolution of military conflicts over the ages, the concept …
Macro managers' returns are positive year-to-date but are still lagging their benchmarks. Their alpha was hit twice by the end of March and June. Managers adequately positioned early this year on rising yields and tapering through bond shorts and steepeners.
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
Trading conditions in China have severely deteriorated. After reaching their peak by mid-February, stocks lost earlier gains in March, on evidence of a plateauing economy and as stretched investors' positioning unwounded. Chinese markets were then stuck in a volatile trading
Let’s make an (infrastructure) deal. On June 24th, the bipartisan Senate coalition reached a compromise on a US$1.2 trillion infrastructure package over the next eight years, which includes
Since March and April tapering and inflation concerns eased up, U.S. value stocks have regained their lost ground and are outperforming growth stocks by 40% since the vaccine announcement late 2020. How long the value rally will last is yet
The specter of market volatility brought on by large-scale events, such as global pandemicrelated lockdowns in early 2020, has had a strong influence on investor approaches to their portfolios. Investors are responding by building resilience into their portfolios to navigate
Q1 2021
We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …
Private debt and real asset markets can offer investors meaningful return potential along with diversification. David Bouchoucha, head of private debt and real assets, discusses the opportunities of this alternative investment segment. He underscores how important sustainability is in constructing a resilient portfolio.
What a year 2020 was in markets. From the Corona Crash in March to VIX highs in the 80s, to tech stocks doubling and tripling from those lows. From retail traders driving the market, to stimulus checks holding the market
European Gazette | Autumn 2020 While political risk, a second Covid-19 wave, lower economic activity and suppressed inflation might trigger a short-term sell-off, in the medium term a high equity risk premium and low rates will support equities After a
Before researching whether we can use this outperformance to strengthen our Alternative Beta strategy, we first assessed whether the differences in "performance might result from composition biases between the Flash and Final update."
Amid the sound and fury of renewed Covid-19 lockdowns across Europe, global equities took a plunge at the end of October, bringing the MSCI World down -3% for the full month. Bonds did not provide much protection, as fiscal stimulus
Contrary to common fears, Covid-19’s long-term effect on office demand might actually be accretive, or at least not destructive. Many observers have claimed that the pandemic has revealed city-center offices to be relics of the 20th century. We take a
The current challenging market environment suggests a greater need than ever for alternatives. Hedge funds, which target differentiated, positive absolute returns, provide clear potential benefits. However, institutional investors have …
#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts
Narratives, US election and CTAs The US presidential election is less than two months away. As usual, many observers label this election as perhaps the most important one ever. This time, it might very well be true. Many observers are
Alternatives AUM exceeds $10tn milestone amid challenging market conditions The alternatives industry has just set a new record: global assets under management (AUM) have surged to $10.31tn. We’re now well on our way to meeting Preqin’s 2018 forecast of $14tn
“It’s an insurance policy in case inflation comes back again as it did in the 1970s. I would say that if that’s a sensible thing to do, then, certainly to have 1 to 2% of your assets in Bitcoin makes
Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no
July 2020 – Alternative Fixed Income and R.I. series – Webinar 3 The downturn in financial markets as a result of the coronavirus crisis reached a turning point in March. Since then, markets have recovered strongly, with a recovery of
July 2020 – Alternative Fixed Income and R.I. series – Webinar 2 The downturn in financial markets as a result of the coronavirus crisis reached a turning point in March. Since then, markets have recovered strongly, with a recovery of
Where are the opportunities in Asset Backed Securities? …that can meet ESG risk and positive impact objectives July 2020 – Alternative Fixed Income and R.I. series – Webinar 1 The drawdown in the markets provoked by Covid-19 reached its lowest
Webinar – Market Observations Across Asset Classes in Europe The last months have proven to be an extraordinary and unique period with some of the most volatile movements that have ever been seen, even surpassing those witnessed during the height
Market Insights Powerpoint by JP Morgan Asset Management
Market conditions improved in the wake of the aggressive Federal Reserve announcements to tame risks in the financial system (link). The MSCI World bottomed on March 23rd and rose more than 20% since then, leaving the broad equity market benchmark
The fourth quarter ended on a high note with US equities marching to new record highs. It closed a year where the narrative mostly had been pessimistic. Uncertainties around trade tensions, Brexit, political drama and recession fears have dominated. The
Global Asset Allocation The coronavirus outbreak has become a worldwide health crisis, impacting lives across the globe. The uncertain extent of the outbreak has caused a sell-off in risk assets. Many have compared this health emergency with the Severe Acute
Risk assets have largely shrugged off recent headwinds on the back of robust macro and corporate dynamics in the U.S. The Q4-2019 earnings season delivered better than expected outcomes especially in the Technology sector. Meanwhile, labor market conditions remain buoyant
Webinar Alternative investments can play an important role in setting return expectations, diversification, and the overall risk profile of a portfolio. During the webinar we will take a closer look into how adding alternative investment funds benefits the risk-return characteristics
Introduction All the major asset classes ended 2019 on a positive note; equities rallied particularly strongly, especially growth stocks. Part of the reason last year was so robust was the rebound from the awful fourth quarter of 2018. Despite the
AQR White Paper One of the most important topics on investors’ minds following the Global Financial Crisis was how to protect their portfolios from the next crisis. Our paper "Chasing Your Own Tail (Risk)" was our response.1 In it, we
For investors, last year was a heady mix of trade wars, Brexit upheaval, economic pessimism, historically low interest rates and positive, but volatile, markets. It’s therefore reasonable to ask – are we in for more of the same in 2020?
Climate change innovators: spotting the sleeping giants Solving the climate crisis is likely to take innovative technology, scalable deployment and a bit of luck. Many envision climate saviors coming in the form of plucky startups. But alternative data is hinting
Allocation views Our view of global growth has been getting more optimistic over the last few months as signs of stabilization have appeared in many economies. Areas that were notably weak, such as manufacturing in Germany, have turned up somewhat
Multi Asset Monthly Economic Outlook The trade truce and the stabilization in manufacturing data have reduced recession risks, but it is still too early to give an all-clear signal. How much damage business confidence has already suffered remains a question,
Allocation views – Perspective from Franklin Templeton Multi Asset Solutions The new year started with a bout of volatility, driven by tensions in the Middle East. US forces assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which grabbed headlines and
The allegory of the hawk and serpent The opportunity is subject to one final choice. You must decide what assets to invest in and maintain that allocation for an entire century without ever changing it. The future of your children’s
Themes and implications from the Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Summit This year was dominated by trade tension, weak manufacturing and a sharp dovish shift in monetary policy. In 2020, we anticipate that headwinds from trade and manu- facturing dissipate while policy
Keeping it simple in a complicated world Throughout 2019 we focused on the concept of “Braving the Elements — Surfing the Late Cycle.” We addressed this theme at our Global Investment Forums, held in major cities across the globe…
ONE-DIMENSIONAL. FLAT. SILOED. GENERIC A common criticism of alternatives investment guidance is that it lacks the depth, breadth and context to have a meaningful impact on broader portfolio design and implementation. In this, our second annual Alternatives Outlook, with an
Uncertainty remains but we still expect a transitory economic impact from the Coronavirus outbreak. In a best- case scenario, authorities measures could help reverse the trend within weeks, with containment by the end of Q1. In a base-case scenario, the
A letter to investors from Darrell L. Cronk December 2019 2019 was largely characterized by a tug-of-war between substantial geopolitical drags and offsetting global monetary policy easing. The third slowdown of this expansion took hold at midyear, once again creating
20/20 Vision Founding father and Philadelphia’s adopted son Benjamin Franklin is commonly credited with the invention of bifocals. He created them to fix his dual near- and far-sightedness. In August 1784, he wrote that he was “happy in the invention of double spectacles, which
IN SHORT Questions surround the coronavirus outbreak, with an impact expected on Q1 data, especially in China. Markets have proven mostly resilient so far, but short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated. We maintain a more constructive view for the
In 2019, RPM portfolios again delivered mixed results in a difficult market environment with little exploitable time series momentum (TSMOM) outside of fixed income markets. After an initial sell-off, the year was characterized by a major bond rally on the
TAA Model Allocation – as at December 2019 As the calendar year ends, it is customary to look ahead to what the New Year might hold. In this edition of Global Outlook, we summarise the latest thoughts from our quarterly Global investment Group
