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Tag "Asset Allocation"

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q3

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q3

🕔14:38, 21.Jun 2022

Most assets have again delivered negative returns in both local currency and USD, with the notable exception of commodities (or more precisely energy and agricultural products). That was unfortunate for us, given that we were zero-weighted in commodities (having been

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Growth Traps Snap Shut

Growth Traps Snap Shut

🕔15:34, 20.Jun 2022

What do Netflix, Peloton Interactive, Coinbase, and Palantir Technologies have in common? I admit it isn’t a particularly challenging question. As anyone who has been following the U.S. stock market in the last 10 months knows all too well, they

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So Far, So Good…

So Far, So Good…

🕔12:26, 20.Jun 2022

With inflation at multi-decade highs and growth already slowing, investors were rightfully sceptical about the Fed’s ability to aggressively tackle inflation without sending the economy into recession having waited too long. Now two hikes in and messaging front-loading future hikes

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Barometer: Voorzichtigheid is de moeder van de porseleinkast

Barometer: Voorzichtigheid is de moeder van de porseleinkast

🕔10:27, 13.Jun 2022

De stijgende reële rentevoeten en de bezorgdheid over de vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie wegen op onze vooruitzichten voor aandelen, wat ons ertoe aanzet onze allocatie naar onderwogen te verlagen Activatoewijzing: een zenuwoorlog Inflatie Oorlog COVID Deze eisen elk hun tol

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Does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense?

Does the 60/40 portfolio still make sense?

🕔11:22, 7.Jun 2022

For over two decades, the 60/40 equity-bond portfolio has served investors well as stock prices have risen and interest rates have fallen. However, the simultaneous sell-off in both asset classes this year has challenged this model. Looking ahead, we believe

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Given stagflationary concerns, our outlook remains cautious

Given stagflationary concerns, our outlook remains cautious

🕔11:44, 6.Jun 2022

Multi-Asset Investments Monthly views  Given “stagflationary” concerns, our outlook remains cautious, with a preference for quality in developed markets. Stagflation describes a combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation.

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Growing Risks on the Horizon

Growing Risks on the Horizon

🕔08:45, 25.May 2022

April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …

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Where to Hide?

Where to Hide?

🕔15:39, 24.May 2022

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe  War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on

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Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

🕔14:42, 24.May 2022

We are witnessing significant divergences in the economic outlook (we have revised down the EU and Chinese economic outlooks vs. the more resilient US economy) and in market performances. In particular: (1) Inflation expectations – short-term peak vs. long-term rise:

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Asset allocation monthly-Down side risks to earnings– especially in Europe

Asset allocation monthly-Down side risks to earnings– especially in Europe

🕔08:16, 23.May 2022

 The tug of war between rising real yields and slowing earnings growth remains a feature of US equity markets, while the knock-on effects of the war in Ukraine hang over European stocks and Covid lockdown concerns cloud the prospects for

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Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

🕔10:38, 20.May 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Bond markets continued their 2022 slump while equity markets rebounded in March as both began to look beyond the Russia-Ukraine narrative and focus on the evolving global economic and policy backdrop. Expectations in both the US and

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Have consumers returned to spending on services?

Have consumers returned to spending on services?

🕔10:25, 17.May 2022

The COVID-19 pandemic increased the proportion that developed world consumers spend on goods versus services. This has been reflected in the outperformance of sectors focusing on the production and selling of goods. We think that consumer spending patterns will return

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Integrating Climate Risk Into Strategic Asset Allocation

Integrating Climate Risk Into Strategic Asset Allocation

🕔14:24, 16.May 2022

Traditional environmental, social and governance (ESG) analysis has tended to focus on fundamental or “bottom-up” factors. However, we believe that the systemic nature of climate risks demands an expanded “top-down” approach that informs broad asset allocation decisions as well as

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Defensive Equities: Tactical or Strategic?

Defensive Equities: Tactical or Strategic?

🕔11:28, 16.May 2022

For an industry largely founded on assumptions based on historical averages, investors can have surprisingly short memories. Recency bias – the tendency to give greater importance to recent events than to the long term – is difficult to overcome, even

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Barometer: Een wreed april kan het dieptepunt markeren

Barometer: Een wreed april kan het dieptepunt markeren

🕔09:41, 16.May 2022

Aandelen hadden in april te lijden onder een flinke selloff, maar er zijn aanwijzingen dat beleggers te bearish zijn. Het beleggingsklimaat lijkt moeilijker te worden. De wereldwijde economische groei vertraagt, de inflatie neemt toe, er lijkt geen oplossing in zicht

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The benefits of greater concentration

The benefits of greater concentration

🕔01:01, 14.May 2022

The long-held view that stock-based diversification is a good way to minimize risk in an actively managed fund has led to an increase in portfolios that may hold too many securities. Portfolios with 100 stocks, or more, can dilute the

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Diversification: What matters for investors?

Diversification: What matters for investors?

🕔00:57, 14.May 2022

Diversification is considered a core tenet of finance. However, if diversification is not done properly investors can find themselves surprised by ineffective portfolio positioning. We believe a factor approach supports true diversification by helping better understand underlying risk exposures and

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Global House View Second Quarter 2022

Global House View Second Quarter 2022

🕔10:39, 13.May 2022

Cross asset allocation: Our neutral score across all main asset classes represents a more cautious tone in markets that we see carrying on through the second quarter of 2022. Increased hawkishness by major central banks despite the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war

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Investor Guide: Building Resilient Portfolios in an Inflationary Environment

Investor Guide: Building Resilient Portfolios in an Inflationary Environment

🕔08:58, 12.May 2022

Inflationary pressures will likely peak but not disappear Inflation, once thought transitory, now appears more durable. Supply-demand imbalances, while an expected aspect of the economic cycle, have been exacerbated by the unprecedented nature of pandemic shutdowns. The workforce remains constrained

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The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q2

The Big Picture Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q2

🕔17:33, 11.May 2022

The year started with central banks turning hawkish, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both of which destabilised financial markets. Many cyclical assets are now cheaper than when we last wrote and we are adding to equities within our Model

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Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

🕔12:52, 11.May 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …

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Shortage of Neon Gas Dims Tech Output

Shortage of Neon Gas Dims Tech Output

🕔08:52, 10.May 2022

One commodity negatively impacted by the war is neon gas, a key input used in the semiconductor process. Bulk neon gas is a byproduct of the steel industry (primarily the Russian steel industry), which is captured and filtered to achieve

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Portfolio Insights: Introducing illiquid assets into a global multi-asset portfolio

Portfolio Insights: Introducing illiquid assets into a global multi-asset portfolio

🕔14:57, 9.May 2022

Executive Summary We demonstrate the building blocks for investors who may either be considering allocating to illiquid assets for the first time, or who want to gain a greater understanding of how much capital they should invest in illiquid assets.

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Key takeaways for the next 10 years

Key takeaways for the next 10 years

🕔16:03, 4.May 2022

2022 long-term expected returns for capital markets Balanced return: We forecast a traditional balanced fund (60% equities / 40% bonds with a home bias) to return somewhere close to 4%, or roughly 2.0% in real terms. The lower-than-historical return can

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Forget what you’ve done for the last decade

Forget what you’ve done for the last decade

🕔14:37, 4.May 2022

What does this mean for our portfolios? Firstly, let’s take the situation in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Above all there is the human perspective, which is tragic and horrifying. But our clients also need us to examine it from an

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US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

US economy and markets look resilient regarding the Russia-Ukraine crisis

🕔11:03, 3.May 2022

Market assessment: After an initial negative reaction to the Russia-Ukrainian conflict, US equities markets are now above their pre-war levels. US equity volatility has proven much lower compared to Europe, which is more exposed to the crisis and to the

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The value winter is thawing

The value winter is thawing

🕔16:02, 2.May 2022

Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔10:57, 2.May 2022

Beginning of the End? The more than four-decade bull market for bonds, supported by low inflation and declining rates, that provided a tailwind of price appreciation on top of income, may finally be coming to an end. For bond investors,

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A Time for Defensiveness

A Time for Defensiveness

🕔10:32, 2.May 2022

Credit markets came under pressure again in March, with most fixed income asset classes generating negative total returns, although excess returns were mostly positive. Treasury yields traded sharply higher, and the yield curve flattened, with two- and 10-year Treasury yields

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Global Asset Allocation Insights

Global Asset Allocation Insights

🕔16:37, 28.Apr 2022

We remain defensive as geopolitical risks escalate. The war in Ukraine and associated sanctions on Russia increases the risk of further negative supply shocks to commodities and supply chain disruptions, adding to the case for persistently high inflation and slower

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2022 Capital Markets Forecast

2022 Capital Markets Forecast

🕔08:38, 27.Apr 2022

Executive Summary “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper…. is so far different from

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Corporate Pension Peer Analysis

Corporate Pension Peer Analysis

🕔09:05, 26.Apr 2022

In brief Our proprietary analysis of trends among the 100 largest corporate pensions by assets found that the 2021 headline funded status is finally approaching full funding 13 years after the global financial crisis (GFC), with more than 70% of

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Winds of war blow on economic outlook

Winds of war blow on economic outlook

🕔14:45, 25.Apr 2022

Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in

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2022 Asset Allocation Report

2022 Asset Allocation Report

🕔08:34, 25.Apr 2022

Including: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Short-Term Tactical Outlook This report presents Cliffwater recommendations for asset class return and risk (standard deviation) assumptions, intended for asset allocation studies that set long-term portfolio asset class targets. While these forward-looking or “expected” asset

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Allocation views

Allocation views

🕔16:10, 21.Apr 2022

Simplify the problem: A tighter focus. It has been an eventful start to the year. A significant rotation in equity market leadership in the early part of 2022’s first quarter saw the prospects for growth stocks derailed. This was followed

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Asset Class Views – Reduced visibility demands neutrality

Asset Class Views – Reduced visibility demands neutrality

🕔14:27, 21.Apr 2022

March has been a month of multiple material developments. Not only the rapid victory envisioned by President Putin did not occur, but the possibilities for a long-lasting conflict have increased. The military stalemate and the dislocation of the political equilibriums

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Our monthly market analysis and positioning

Our monthly market analysis and positioning

🕔07:52, 21.Apr 2022

The past month, and indeed the entire first quarter, has been dramatic in every respect. The invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops not only revealed that German politicians in particular had been mistaken about the Russian leader, Vladimir Putin. It

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Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q22

Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q22

🕔16:49, 20.Apr 2022

Against a background of structurally higher inflation and declining growth, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Asset Allocation Committee’s (“AAC”) views have become more risk-averse. They have also realigned with what we see as a new investment regime, signs

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De-Risking Portfolio by Favoring Gold

De-Risking Portfolio by Favoring Gold

🕔12:24, 20.Apr 2022

Each month, the State Street Global Advisors’ Investment Solutions Group (ISG) meets to debate and ultimately determine a Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) that can be used to help guide near-term investment decisions for client portfolios. By focusing on asset allocation,

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2022 Capital Market Assumptions

2022 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔10:39, 20.Apr 2022

Sellwood Consulting updates its capital markets assumptions on an annual basis. Our 2022 assumptions reflect information as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted. This report documents our process for creating these capital markets assumptions, and we provide detailed methodology

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Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon)

Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon)

🕔10:26, 19.Apr 2022

Monthly update We keep the narratives and the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month. The war in Ukraine could evolve in several ways over the coming weeks (see Ukraine crisis tree) with significant implications on

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How inflation turned out to be anything but transitory

How inflation turned out to be anything but transitory

🕔08:12, 19.Apr 2022

German consumer price rises hit a 42-year high, and probably have not peaked yet In Germany and elsewhere, inflation has accelerated and will probably continue to do so for quite a while. Each new inflation release increases pressures on central

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A tale of two shocks

A tale of two shocks

🕔10:04, 14.Apr 2022

The economy is facing two shocks. An inflation shock has led to a sharp hawkish shift by central banks. The Fed is now expected to raise policy rates to 2.5% this year. The BoJ is the outlier in the developed

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Near-term outlook: less real growth, more inflation

Near-term outlook: less real growth, more inflation

🕔08:30, 14.Apr 2022

The war in Ukraine adds another supply-side shock and increases economic uncertainty at a time when macro policy is constrained by high inflation and strained public finances. Despite this, most stock markets are trading higher today than at the start

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Standing by our Prudent Strategy

Standing by our Prudent Strategy

🕔14:11, 12.Apr 2022

Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine war and its economic fallout. The world's major economies went into the current crisis with fairly sound fundamentals, positive growth and low unemployment. Several were still enjoying the boost from withdrawing social distancing measures introduced

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Winds of war blow on economic outlook

Winds of war blow on economic outlook

🕔08:27, 11.Apr 2022

Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in

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2022 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions

2022 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔16:15, 6.Apr 2022

Summary Q4 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: U.S. economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter at an estimated annualized rate of 6.9%, taking growth for the full year to 5.5%, the strongest reading since 1984. That strong rate

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Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

🕔08:25, 4.Apr 2022

Historical perspective to understand future expectations of return In their 2015 paper, “Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns,”1 authors John C. Bogle and Michael W. Nolan describe a simple model for developing capital market expectations, looking

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Ukraine war to cut growth, up inflation

Ukraine war to cut growth, up inflation

🕔19:50, 3.Apr 2022

BII Global weekly commentary We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week,

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Standing by our prudent strategy

Standing by our prudent strategy

🕔17:45, 30.Mar 2022

Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine war and its economic fallout The world's major economies went into the current crisis with fairly sound fundamentals, positive growth and low unemployment. Several were still enjoying the boost from withdrawing social distancing measures introduced

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