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2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔13:07, 3.Dec 2020

To build the income component of our long-term equity forecasts, we calculate each country’s expected income contribution, based on current and anticipated levels of dividend yield, as well as the expected returns attributable to buyback activity (positive) or net positive

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There’s No Place Like Housing

There’s No Place Like Housing

🕔09:41, 27.Nov 2020

Global Asset Allocation: The View from EMEA Blue Ripple? A Biden presidency, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, is a possible outcome of the US elections. Most polls heading into the election were predicting the possibility of a ‘Blue

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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Vaccines shape 2021 outlook

Vaccines shape 2021 outlook

🕔09:26, 24.Nov 2020

"We still like high yield for income. On a tactical horizon, we strongly prefer high yield for its income and more room for spread tightening. We are neutral on IG and underweight emerging market debt."

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BNP Paribas – High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery (Video)

BNP Paribas – High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery (Video)

🕔13:10, 23.Nov 2020

High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery (Video) Asset Allocation Monthly In this Asset Allocation monthly video, we discuss the implications of the US elections and the news on potentially reliable Covid vaccines on our market views and our asset allocation

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Pension Funds in Figures – 2020

Pension Funds in Figures – 2020

🕔15:38, 20.Nov 2020

"The size of pension funds compared to GDP varied widely at the end of 2019, ranging from 0.1% in Pakistan to 191.4% in the Netherlands. Assets in pension funds exceeded the size of the domestic economy in five countries: Australia

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Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020

🕔11:02, 20.Nov 2020

Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020 IFI multi-sector asset allocation overview Macro factor summary: We have upgraded our growth expectations for the US and Europe and expect growth momentum to persist in 2021. We expect spare capacity to keep

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High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery

High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery

🕔12:45, 19.Nov 2020

Asset Allocation Monthly Three key issues have dominated the macroeconomic outlook in recent weeks: The second wave of the virus, the possibility of a positive announcement on the vaccine front, and the outcome of the US elections. Markets have been

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Stimulus-focused recovery remains fragile

Stimulus-focused recovery remains fragile

🕔11:36, 19.Nov 2020

House View  The global economy is recovering from the economic fallout in the first half of the year. The lockdown measures have caused a sharp deceleration in economic activities in the manufacturing and services sectors in the first half of

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Fixed Income Monthly

Fixed Income Monthly

🕔07:49, 19.Nov 2020

The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a portfolio. Given

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Gridlock Could Yield ‘Goldilocks’ Market Scenario

Gridlock Could Yield ‘Goldilocks’ Market Scenario

🕔15:05, 18.Nov 2020

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights   Credit spreads have mostly remained around fair value, with investors readopting a buy-on-the-dip bias as they weigh conflicting positive and negative fundamental trends. On the positive side, a Biden presidency coupled with the likelihood of

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October started strongly but ended weakly as Covid concerns rose again.

October started strongly but ended weakly as Covid concerns rose again.

🕔15:02, 13.Nov 2020

"After all, it is difficult to determine which election outcome the market had priced in, when and with what probability. "

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Recovery enters a Second Phase

Recovery enters a Second Phase

🕔14:47, 13.Nov 2020

The Investment Clock: "Recovering: After a plunge into recession, economic data started a rapid pick up from March in China and May/June in Europe and the US as social distancing eased. Retail sales have recovered particularly fast in the US

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Global Market Outlook

Global Market Outlook

🕔13:10, 9.Nov 2020

As markets continue to ponder the US Presidential election result, a surge in COVID19 cases across Europe has led to a darkening near-term outlook. How things play out in the US—from a political and virus perspective—is still uncertain, but another

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔15:02, 6.Nov 2020

Quarterly Update  As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between

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The Road Ahead

The Road Ahead

🕔07:37, 29.Oct 2020

“ In fact, Powell noted that the Fed seeks to promote its employment and inflation goals while warding off any risks to financial stability (i.e., asset bubbles) ‘that impede the stability of our goals’. “

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A November to Remember?

A November to Remember?

🕔09:47, 26.Oct 2020

Global Asset Allocation: The view from EMEA With a quickly approaching U.S. presidential election that is too close to call, mounting  controversy surrounding mail-in ballots, the potential for a protracted legal battle, and the president’s recent coronavirus diagnosis, markets …

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3Q 2020 Returns Recap: Largely Positive Returns Across the Board

3Q 2020 Returns Recap: Largely Positive Returns Across the Board

🕔07:54, 26.Oct 2020

The US Election Will Determine the Path of Fiscal Policy Fiscal and monetary stimulus have played a critical role in restarting the economy and remain crucial to a continued expansion Monetary stimulus is not subject to the election cycle: the

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Secure income assets: new opportunities for a new decade

Secure income assets: new opportunities for a new decade

🕔14:36, 23.Oct 2020

DB (defined benefit) pension schemes are progressing along their journey to end-game, with many becoming increasingly cashflow negative and struggling to balance competing requirements for returns and cashflow.  In this environment we believe that the cashflows, diversification and return-generating nature

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T. Rowe Price – Webinar – Global Markets and the Implications for Asset Allocators – Q4 2020

🕔11:00, 22.Oct 2020

Webinar – Global Markets and the Implications for Asset Allocators – Q4 2020 Please join us on 22 October at 10:00am GMT / 11:00am CET for our quarterly asset allocation webinar. Yoram Lustig, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions EMEA, will discuss

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Growth is dependent on ongoing stimulus

Growth is dependent on ongoing stimulus

🕔14:34, 20.Oct 2020

Allocation views We are growing more accustomed to the strange new landscape left behind after the COVID-19 recession. The virus threat remains very real, with notable flare-ups in Europe more recently, even as populations get more used to dealing with

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Politics, policy, and the pandemic

Politics, policy, and the pandemic

🕔14:43, 15.Oct 2020

KEY POINTS   Potential treatments/vaccines for COVID‑19, policy support, and gradually reopening economies make us more comfortable taking a pro-risk stance over our 12-month time frame. However, the market’s rebound and the prospect of a slow economic recovery leave us only moderately bullish

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Pandemic poised to accelerate underlying trends

Pandemic poised to accelerate underlying trends

🕔07:54, 14.Oct 2020

European Gazette / Summer 2020 We now have a two-speed economy, and much talk about a disconnect between stock market and economy. But this won’t change our research and stock picking focus When meeting clients, I am often asked to give

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A new role for US equities in multi-asset portfolios

A new role for US equities in multi-asset portfolios

🕔13:24, 7.Oct 2020

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report IN BRIEF From a portfolio perspective, exposure to tech winners in U.S. equities is not a free lunch. The same growth stories that prompted outsize U.S. equity returns in recent years and a faster recovery

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Brave real world

Brave real world

🕔12:54, 30.Sep 2020

It’s as if nothing happened. At the time of writing, the MSCI AC World index in EUR is up 8% since a year ago, which is very close to our long-term equilibrium equity return estimate of 7%. Yet, in the

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Global Asset Allocation: The View from EMEA Market Inisghts

Global Asset Allocation: The View from EMEA Market Inisghts

🕔13:13, 25.Sep 2020

After more than a decade of below‑target inflation in the U.S., some investors are speculating that inflation may finally rise due to the magnitude of monetary stimulus coinciding with fiscal stimulus supporting the economic recovery from the coronavirus‑induced …

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Greater inflation risks ahead

Greater inflation risks ahead

🕔09:38, 23.Sep 2020

Weekly commentary We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets. Three new forces are at play: rising global production cost, new central bank policy frameworks that allow for …

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CIO View – Investment Traffic Lights

CIO View – Investment Traffic Lights

🕔08:06, 15.Sep 2020

MARKET OVERVIEW  In August, investors were risk-on and helped the stock markets in particular to some new record highs. The economic recovery continues to progress but is losing some of its momentum. From a strategic point of view we see

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Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

🕔11:20, 12.Sep 2020

#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts

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US Elections: Investing Amid Political Risk

US Elections: Investing Amid Political Risk

🕔12:46, 11.Sep 2020

Key points Polls suggest the general mood in the US is gloomy and the electorate disapproving Trump on many key election issues, according to RealClearPolitics. Media sentiment suggests that Trump is losing ground against Biden both in the entire country

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Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

🕔14:29, 8.Sep 2020

Asset Allocatie Consensus Augustus 2020 gaat de boeken in als de maand waarin alle grote Amerikaanse beursindices records breken. Opnieuw was Tech de uitblinker dat als sector een jaarperformance van bijna 25% laat zien. Wall Street overvleugelt daarmee Main Street,

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BNY Mellon Endowments and Foundations Performance and Asset Allocation Study (2020)

BNY Mellon Endowments and Foundations Performance and Asset Allocation Study (2020)

🕔15:12, 4.Sep 2020

Universities, philanthropies, cultural institutions and other not-for-profit organizations are contending with significant financial hardship brought on by COVID-19. From shuttered classrooms and museums, to suspended fundraising activities and hospital procedures, many of these institutions may see a shortfall in revenue

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Barometer: Corona conundrum

Barometer: Corona conundrum

🕔15:10, 26.Aug 2020

De markten hebben zich sterk gehouden dankzij voortdurende stimuleringsmaatregelen, maar Covid19 moet nog worden verslagen. De vrees voor een tweede golf en de toenemende politieke risico's pleiten voor voorzichtigheid van de beleggers.

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The Globe

The Globe

🕔14:53, 25.Aug 2020

Eurizon’s Investment View  Covid-19 cases are confirmed to be accelerating in the Southern States of the US, in Latin America and in other emerging countries, but are not generating tensions on the markets. This is because the spreading of the

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How far from normal?

How far from normal?

🕔11:44, 24.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths  Covid-19 has not gone away, shutdowns are being selectively reintroduced and we suspect the recovery becomes more difficult from here. We maintain a diversified model asset allocation.  We have been living with Covid-19 for more than six months

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Axioma Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor

Axioma Multi-Asset Class Risk Monitor

🕔07:37, 19.Aug 2020

 Factor Correlations (60 days) and Changes in Correlations (vs previous 60 days)   Factor Volatilities (last 60 days vs previous 60 days)  Exchange Rate and Predicted Risk

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The View from EMEA

The View from EMEA

🕔07:54, 18.Aug 2020

Global Asset Allocation Year-to-date growth stocks have outperformed value by over 30%, not only in the downturn given their defensive characteristics, but also during the recovery. While growth stocks have …

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Looking Forward to Back to to School?

Looking Forward to Back to to School?

🕔12:55, 17.Aug 2020

Allocation views  As we enter the typically quieter months of the northern-hemisphere summer, we are starting to adapt to a new way of doing things. It is not quite as it was before, but it …

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Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

Private equity is from Mars; hedge funds are from Venus

🕔15:11, 14.Aug 2020

Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no

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The Shifting Role of Bonds

The Shifting Role of Bonds

🕔08:02, 11.Aug 2020

State Street Associates | Current Trends In its simplest form, asset allocation might be viewed as the choice between stocks, bonds, and cash. Stocks offer an engine for growth. Cash provides safety. The role of bonds, however …

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Zwitserse aandelen – Structurele waardecreatie

Zwitserse aandelen – Structurele waardecreatie

🕔09:40, 6.Aug 2020

White Paper  In dat verslag worden 200 landen gerangschikt op basis van een COVID-19- gerelateerde veiligheids- en risicoanalyse die steunt op een hele reeks datapunten. Zwitserland kreeg de hoogste algemene score voor zijn doeltreffende maatregelen om de verspreiding van het

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Emea

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Emea

🕔11:40, 23.Jul 2020

Double Dip? Fueling the Rally With the coronavirus largely contained across Europe and Asia and some parts of the U.S., there is a sense that the worst of the pandemic may be behind us. As the global economy continues to

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Northern Trust AM – Webinar – Asset Allocation Insights & Investment Views in Just 30 Minutes

🕔15:30, 22.Jul 2020

Webinar – Asset Allocation Insights & Investment Views in Just 30 Minutes Portfolio Ideas with Wouter Sturkenboom & Guest Investment Expert A new era of volatility means investors must search for ways to achieve their portfolio objectives. To help you

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Observations driving our outlook

Observations driving our outlook

🕔15:34, 17.Jul 2020

2020 Real Assets Outlook Coronavirus… The ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy has dramatically altered our outlook on inflation, risk and asset class returns. Going into 2020, valuations for many risk assets were rich and expected returns were

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Growth momentum in the global economy is improving

Growth momentum in the global economy is improving

🕔14:57, 17.Jul 2020

Allocation views  Last month in Allocation Views, we wrote about financial markets becoming inured to the publication of data that had been shockingly weak. Indeed, the level …

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An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

🕔14:55, 17.Jul 2020

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights  Rising from incredibly low levels, improving economic data that suggest the imminent start of a recovery drove a sustained rebound in most fixed income asset classes in June. Markets remain highly dependent on the …

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Asset allocation outlook

Asset allocation outlook

🕔14:51, 17.Jul 2020

In June, investors were confronted with the conflicting impact of an improved outlook and a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus cases around the world. Optimism prevailed in the end; the …

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The 90% Economy: The Long Road Back to Normal

The 90% Economy: The Long Road Back to Normal

🕔09:52, 13.Jul 2020

In many things 90% is just fine; for an economy it is miserable Bankruptcies and the fear of a second wave Life will be hard—at least until a vaccine or a treatment is found 

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Capital Market Assumptions

Capital Market Assumptions

🕔16:33, 10.Jul 2020

Expected real returns for major asset classes as of March 31, 2020  Volatile Q1 2020 Followed an Exceptionally Benign Decade The 2010s were exceptional for stock/bond portfolios

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Strategic Asset Allocation for a +1.5°C World: a proposed framework

Strategic Asset Allocation for a +1.5°C World: a proposed framework

🕔13:27, 9.Jul 2020

Responsible Investment   Climate change is material risk – Global warming poses long-term physical risks as the climate changes, as well as nearer term risks as the energy sector shifts from fossil fuels …

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Featured Events & Webinars

Events & Webinars

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"Is the #dollar’s stumble a sign of things to come?" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/12/capital-group/is-the-dollars-stumble-a-sign-of-things-to-come/ by @CapitalGroup #usdollar #us #currency

'#Coronavirus cases are rising at an alarming rate in the #US and #Europe, so why are #equities reaching new highs?' - "Covid-19 vaccines, lockdowns and equities" by @CTinvest_EMEA -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/12/columbia-threadneedle/covid-19-vaccines-lockdowns-and-equities/

#Webinar 9 December on #Frontier DebtMarkets @UBP_Group -> https://www.opiniopro.com/event/ubp-webinar-frontier-debt-markets/ #EMD #EMSovereignBonds

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