In February, concerns about inflation caused a partial reversal of gains in the stock and bond markets, leading to a convergence between risky and risk-off assets. Strong US jobs and retail sales data, along with higher-than-expected inflation reports, led to
Wij verwachten niet dat de inflatie nog lang zal aanhouden, maar we hebben niet bijzonder veel vertrouwen in de groeivooruitzichten van de ontwikkelde wereld. Daarom zijn we onderwogen in Amerikaanse aandelen en aandelen uit de eurozone.
2022 was a run to forget for investors. However, the “yard sale” of 2022 has created opportunities across asset classes for the coming year, most notably in fixed income, hence its green rating. The equity story is more nuanced in
Applied philosophy Are global equities in a recovery or still in the midst of a downturn? We analysed how valuations and earnings progressed through previous market cycles to get closer to an answer. While our findings provide some clues to
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After outpacing the rest of the world by more than 170% over the past nine years between 2013 and 2021, US equity markets notably lagged the rest of the world last year. Despite
Risk markets have bounced meaningfully from their lows in October, helped by peaking inflation, falling rates volatility, an end to the dollar’s rally, and China’s reopening. However, there are many challenges ahead and we are still positioned for a hard
We maintain our neutral stance on equities as although peaking interest rates take some pressure off valuations, risks remain
Tactical Asset Allocation Outlook ■ Many of our equity signals note an improving environment, but we continue to closely monitor the extent to which an economic slowdown is priced into earnings. ■ We maintain our overweight view on fixed income. While
Veel beleggers lijken verrast door de beter dan verwachte economische cijfers die we in grote delen van de wereld zien. Door de vele doemverhalen gingen zij ervan uit dat een recessie onvermijdelijk zou zijn, maar dat lijkt voorlopig niet het
Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to strong buffers, such as still present excess savings
In January markets rebounded, providing a window of opportunity to capture returns. Towards the end of December, we began increasing risk to take advantage of this, and continued to add to risk assets during January. We see 2023 as a
Risky assets began the year with a bang, driven in part by a shift in interest rates that we see as partly contradictory. The markets seem to be pricing in key rate cuts by central banks as early as the
The better outlook on the growth/inflation mix for the year ahead has quickly been incorporated by risky assets, from equities to high yield via credit markets. As the extreme investor pessimism of last October is now in the distant past,
The surge in equities and fall in long-term bond yields so far this year suggest investors have been buying into the idea of ‘immaculate disinflation’ — that easing inflation would be painless for growth in 2023. Such market moves could
Key themes 1. Expectations for corporate earnings continue to decline, however, in our view, earnings growth …
Inflation rates are falling, first economic indicators are already rising again. This feeds hopes that the economy will land softly, and a recession can be avoided. We are of a different opinion. Therefore, we tactically prefer bonds to equities. What
Markets have continued the very strong trend that started in November last year, but several things have also changed this year, including but not limited to: • The decline in government bond yields which led to a quick recovery in
Investing is a profession that can resemble predicting the future. Investors are made to think they need a crystal ball, when of course, no crystal ball exists. In today’s environment, even the most clairvoyant crystal ball would likely be cloudy.
Visie op asset allocatie: Na het moeizame 2022 gingen financiële markten in 2023 voortvarend van start. In feite een voortzetting van het optimisme sinds oktober vorig jaar, dat alleen in december even werd onderbroken. Lagere inflatie en de hoop dat
Financial markets have started the year with an ‘everything rally’ as fears over the potential for an imminent recession – concerns we argued were misplaced – have receded. There are two key drivers of the price action, in our view.
With the energy crunch easing and China heading for a reopening bounce, the euro area will likely escape a widely anticipated winter recession. • Yet the Fed’s fast monetary tightening will take its toll on a shallow US midyear …
Our monthly market analysis and positioning
The Union Investment Committee (UIC) reaffirmed its neutral risk positioning (RoRo meter at level 3) at its meeting on 21 February. It did not make any changes to the strategic portfolio during the regular meeting either. However, the committee had
Uncertainty over growth, inflation and corporate earnings persists, even though there has been a mild improvement on the economic front. These trends underscore the need to be active and well diversified. In equities, investors should stay cautious and consider playing
The regime of greater economic and market volatility is playing out – and not going away. Central banks won’t ride to the rescue in recession, contrary to what investors have come to expect. This regime requires a new investment playbook.
The first month of 2023 was quite the contrast to the dismal financial market returns posted last year. We have seen a growing belief form in markets that inflation—the prime driver of last year’s pain—has not just peaked but is
Growth prospects look to be improving—a sharp shift from late 2022 when the markets had strong conviction that a first half slowdown was to be followed by a better second half. Yes, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has tightened aggressively,
European equity markets made a very strong start to the year, supported by easing inflation figures, both in the US and Europe, the surprisingly quick end to the zero-Covid policy in China and the relatively mild winter that has defused
Risky assets began the year with a bang, driven in part by a shift in interest rates that we see as partly contradictory. The markets seem to be pricing in key rate cuts by central banks as early as the
China’s reponening bolsters our scenario of a soft landing. The start of the year brought relief for some of the risks overshadowing the world's economy. First, the rapid ending of Covid lockdowns in China should prompt a near automatic rebound
Fed chairman Jerome Powell himself recognised that disinflation had begun so the Fed could be nearing the end of its tough monetary tightening programme. The ECB’s intentions are harder to read but we note that the bank is trying to
Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation
Monthly investment outlook Stock and bond markets continued to rally in January as falling energy prices, a reopening in China and hope for Fed rate cuts ahead drove optimism across asset classes. This optimism belies growing divergence between expectations implied
MacKay Municipal Managers' Insights for 2023 Top Five MacKay Municipal Managers’ Market Insights for 2023: OVERWEIGHT GENERAL OBLIGATION AND ESSENTIAL SERVICE BONDS We believe essential investment grade sectors, such as General Obligation bonds and Water & Sewer bonds, will regain
We have defined the middle band for growth as 1-3%, to clearly reflect the weakening growth environment. Consensus growth forecasts for next year is 1.5-2%. In previous years, this would have been consistent with weak growth but today, investors will
De financiële markten zijn het nieuwe jaar goed begonnen. Naast de daling van de rente, doordat de inflatie heeft gepiekt en de centrale banken de voet daardoor wat van het rempedaal kunnen halen, zijn ook de bemoedigende tekenen van herstel
Market Perspective Volatility likely to remain elevated in the new year as central bank policy expectations diverge amid evidence of slowing growth and moderating inflation. While slowing the pace of tightening, the US Federal Reserve reinforced its commitment to taming
A deeper earnings downgrade is expected as valuations are yet to fully price in a recession Credit spreads, particularly in higher-grade assets, remain relatively …
It’s a gloomy time of year in more ways than one at the moment. Even the excitement of my recent move to a new house can’t distract from the literal and figurative darkness of January 2023. The war …
ASSET ALLOCATION AWARDS 2023 MET WALKING-DINNER Welke asset manager gaf in de afgelopen 3 jaar de beste adviezen ten aanzien van asset allocatie en publiceerde het meest consistente beleggingsrapport? Wie deed de beste aanbevelingen op het gebied van Fixed Income,
Global tactical asset allocation views brief: Global equities slumped over 2022, posting their worst annual returns since 2008, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to already heightened inflationary pressures and caused the biggest energy price shock since the 1970s. Central
Central banks have started to moderate the pace of tightening but we are not close to a pivot. Inflation remains too high and US labour market data continue to point towards a tight market. Central banks will keep rates at
The savings and investment plan that one follows over the course of one’s working and retirement life is among the most critical decisions an individual can make. The balance between consumption and savings determines one’s overall quality of life, not
Aandelen en obligaties uit opkomende markten bieden de beste vooruitzichten voor beleggers na een zwaar jaar voor de financiële markten. Nieuw jaar, zelfde risico's? De wereldeconomie blijft voor uitdagingen staan – niet in het minst door de zwakke groei en
After the Gold Rush Institutional investors forced to dig deep for opportunity as they brace for inflation or stagflation in post-pandemic markets. After seeming to recover from the pandemic in 2021, the global economy relapsed into what may be classified as a
Guide to the markets
Profit recession, tightening central banks (with divergences in forward guidance), and stillhigh inflation are primary market concerns. US inflation moderating has been a positive lately, but whether that deceleration will be sustained would decide the Fed’s stance, which in turn
The primary job of senior management is to create value over the long term. This entails taking inputs, including capital and labor, and making them worth more than their cost over time. Capital allocation, which describes how a company raises
Lower than expected inflation numbers helped both equity and bond markets continue to trend higher in November. News from China supported this positive sentiment as the world's second largest economy finally showed signs of a shift away from their zero-COVID
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
