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Global Asset Allocation Insights

Global Asset Allocation Insights

🕔08:27, 20.Jan 2022

The medium-term outlook for the current cycle remains healthy and supportive for equity markets. However, there are several near-term risks. Short-term growth momentum is slowing, key central banks are moving towards faster policy normalisation, and there is another wave of

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Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

🕔11:49, 18.Jan 2022

De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Asset-allocatie: De omikronvariant zal het herstel waarschijnlijk niet doen ontsporen Een nieuw

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Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

🕔09:50, 17.Jan 2022

De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …

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China flexes its policy muscles – but can they still do the heavy lifting?

China flexes its policy muscles – but can they still do the heavy lifting?

🕔15:07, 13.Jan 2022

We made no changes to the portfolio in December. We continue to be procyclically positioned, mainly through carrying a higher weight in equities. Our preference within equities is for developed markets, for which Europe is our favorite region. Within fixed

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The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2022

🕔15:56, 11.Jan 2022

Uncommon truths  It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Market sentiment is now mixed (thanks to the Fed), so our list of surprises contains something for everybody (these hypothetical predictions are our views

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Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

🕔16:34, 10.Jan 2022

Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the

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Asset Allocation 2021/22: review and outlook

Asset Allocation 2021/22: review and outlook

🕔12:05, 5.Jan 2022

After the shock Covid-19 recession of 2020, global economic growth bounced back in 2021. Earnings soared more than was forecast, and the prospect of monetary tightening emerged with inflation proving less transitory than hoped. Taking the Covid period in its

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Thriving in a new market regime

Thriving in a new market regime

🕔13:38, 4.Jan 2022

BII Global outlook We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century: We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful restart of economic activity will be

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Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

🕔11:26, 4.Jan 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration

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Acting on new realities

Acting on new realities

🕔08:00, 23.Dec 2021

Shifting sustainable gears… The turn of the year is always a good time to look forward and consider what the enduring trends are –and what tail events might derail our baseline thinking. 2021 serves as an important reminder that sticking

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Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

🕔16:52, 22.Dec 2021

Multi-asset market outlook  While inflation in the US hit a new high in November, stagflationary fears have substantially eased. The pick-up in economic momentum visible in the employment numbers and the purchasing manager’s survey have both eased growth concerns. Of

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Investment Traffic Lights December 2021

Investment Traffic Lights December 2021

🕔09:15, 22.Dec 2021

New Omicron virus mutation and a hawkish Jerome Powell turned November into a rather negative month for most asset classes. Whether this is considered a good entry point largely depends on one’s assessment of Omicron and inflation. At this point

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Investing in the great transformation

Investing in the great transformation

🕔07:38, 22.Dec 2021

10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to

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Slower. But still pretty fast

Slower. But still pretty fast

🕔16:49, 21.Dec 2021

Recovery, risks and relationships Looking back over the last couple of years, it seems that while so much in our world has changed, much has remained the same. Yet we’ve learned a few lessons along the way. We seem to

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Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

🕔12:41, 21.Dec 2021

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together

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2021 was a year of strong returns

2021 was a year of strong returns

🕔08:10, 21.Dec 2021

Global Asset Allocation Views – 1Q 2022: It is too early to say with certainty how and when the pandemic will finally retreat. Rapid deployment of restrictions in Europe suggests we are not there yet. But at the same time,

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Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

🕔14:25, 20.Dec 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …

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Opportunity Amid Transformation

Opportunity Amid Transformation

🕔10:13, 20.Dec 2021

Based on our view that the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk. However, we believe with risk assets seemingly priced for compelling opportunities, they are also more vulnerable to exogenous …

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2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

🕔16:25, 16.Dec 2021

From pandemic to endemic  IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases

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Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

🕔08:55, 16.Dec 2021

Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht

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Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

🕔12:47, 14.Dec 2021

Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy

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Visie op asset allocatie 2021-12

Visie op asset allocatie 2021-12

🕔14:24, 9.Dec 2021

Gedurende het grootste deel van november leken aandelenbeurzen weer op weg naar een positief maandresultaat. Hoge inflatie en centrale banken die daar wellicht met een minder ruim monetair beleid op zouden moeten reageren, haalden de vaart er wel wat uit,

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Barometer: Het beleggingslandschap in 2022

Barometer: Het beleggingslandschap in 2022

🕔09:18, 9.Dec 2021

Hoewel obligaties het moeilijk zullen hebben bij een stijging van de rente, zouden aandelen een behoorlijk eencijferig rendement moeten genereren, omdat sterke bedrijfswinsten een daling van de winstveelvouden van aandelen compenseren.

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2021 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

2021 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔08:10, 9.Dec 2021

Summary Q3 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: A robust global recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn continued in the third quarter despite speed bumps from the COVID-19 Delta variant spreading around the world. The U.S. economy grew 6.6% in

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Rebuilding USD and duration exposure going into year-end

Rebuilding USD and duration exposure going into year-end

🕔15:49, 8.Dec 2021

ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS   Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to

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It’s been a turbulent November.

It’s been a turbulent November.

🕔16:56, 7.Dec 2021

Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of

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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

🕔16:10, 7.Dec 2021

Asset Category ETFs suffered net outflows of $996mn last week amid elevated market uncertainty. Equity weathered net outflows of $856mn while Fixed Income lost $653mn. Investors favoured Commodity, which gathered $327mn, and Money Market exposures which took in $122mn. Equity

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An Asset Allocation Primer: Connecting Markowitz, Kelly and Risk Parity

An Asset Allocation Primer: Connecting Markowitz, Kelly and Risk Parity

🕔09:01, 29.Nov 2021

As curious as it may sound, few asset allocation primers describe portfolio models while connecting them to each other. This article does so by describing and contrasting the mechanics of standard asset allocation models, including the utility-based, Markowitz, Kelly, risk

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2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report

2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report

🕔08:11, 29.Nov 2021

Fading scars, enduring policies IN BRIEF Almost two years after the pandemic struck, the global economic recovery has strong momentum, kicked off by huge fiscal and monetary stimulus and now sustained by a robust capex cycle and solid household balance

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The Case for Investing in Broad Commodities

The Case for Investing in Broad Commodities

🕔15:23, 25.Nov 2021

Building Stronger Portfolios Despite being traded on exchanges for more than a century, commodities are the least well understood of the main asset classes. Over the last 20 years, this gap has begun to close, with many renowned academics pointing

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Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

🕔12:26, 23.Nov 2021

Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary

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Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Outlook

🕔10:05, 23.Nov 2021

Given our view that 2022 will be a year of transition and that asset class returns will converge, we adopt a more balanced approach within our Model Asset Allocation, though still maintain a preference for cyclical assets. We reduce the

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Visie op asset allocatie

Visie op asset allocatie

🕔15:54, 22.Nov 2021

NOVEMBER 2021 Economie VS vertraagt, eurozone nog sterk Monetair beleid stukje bij beetje minder stimulerend Winstcijfers steun voor aandelenmarkten Beleggingsbeleid ongewijzigd; overweging aandelen gehandhaafd

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Long Covid

Long Covid

🕔12:39, 22.Nov 2021

In the short term, we are concerned that confidence in the growth outlook will wane, particularly given the recently weaker data in China, ‘stagflation risk’, and an earnings season dominated by the ‘margins squeeze’ story VIEWS & ASSET ALLOCATION Visibility

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Inflation protection — Hope for the best, but build robust portfolios

Inflation protection — Hope for the best, but build robust portfolios

🕔09:05, 22.Nov 2021

Building a robust portfolio has gotten tougher The last two years have been full of extraordinary challenges. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by governments around the globe hit economies and markets hard and fast.

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Asset Allocation Monthly

Asset Allocation Monthly

🕔16:29, 18.Nov 2021

In the short term, we are concerned that confidence in the growth outlook will wane, particularly given the recently weaker data in China, ‘stagflation risk’, and an earnings season dominated by the ‘margins squeeze’ story.   Visibility on the outlook has

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔14:07, 17.Nov 2021

Just as the global economy is finally gaining traction after delta variant setbacks, some economies are facing severe energy shortages, with energy prices up over 70% since last year. The impacts are being felt across Europe, which is facing shortages

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November Investment Traffic Lights

November Investment Traffic Lights

🕔11:57, 15.Nov 2021

CIO View October has seen new record highs and record returns Events were less friendly to bonds, as inflation fears are prompting central banks to act sooner than expected Many investors are hopeful of the traditional year-end rally, but the

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Long-term outlook: World macro economy

Long-term outlook: World macro economy

🕔10:33, 12.Nov 2021

A key factor in the past year has been the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. The initial economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound have been different for many countries. As the pandemic started in China, that

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔14:49, 11.Nov 2021

As we enter the tail end of the Covid-19 recovery boost, authorities in developed markets are seeking to implement fiscal packages of varying degrees to control the eventual economic cool down. Much of the narrative has now shifted to the

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Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

🕔16:11, 10.Nov 2021

Hoewel de inflatiedruk de obligatierente zal doen stijgen, zou een gezonde stijging van de bedrijfswinsten aandelen moeten ondersteunen. De wereldwijde financiële markten hebben het moeilijk. De monetaire voorwaarden worden strenger terwijl knelpunten in de toeleveringsketen hun tol beginnen te eisen

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Cyclical anxieties and whipsaw markets

Cyclical anxieties and whipsaw markets

🕔00:19, 10.Nov 2021

Investment Monthly – November 2021: We maintain our preference for stocks over bonds as equity premiums remain significantly higher than those for fixed income assets, while on a historical basis, stocks outperform bonds while labour markets improve. A scenario of

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Rethinking the pension plan endgame

Rethinking the pension plan endgame

🕔15:53, 9.Nov 2021

Hibernation, termination or stabilization? IN BRIEF U.S. pension investors have been actively de-risking their defined benefit plans since the global financial crisis, successfully reducing pension funding volatility to manageable levels. Further movement of portfolios toward long duration fixed income will

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Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

🕔13:43, 9.Nov 2021

After 18 months of exceptionally strong equity markets, most measures of valuations look high against their own absolute histories. The measure most favoured among long-time equity bears over the past decade or so has been the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings

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Growing pains – strong demand, constrained supply and elevated inflation

Growing pains – strong demand, constrained supply and elevated inflation

🕔16:39, 3.Nov 2021

House View Q4 2021 The course of economic recoveries and expansions never runs completely smoothly. Businesses need to adjust to the changing environment and are just as likely to be surprised by the strength of demand as by any unexpected

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De strijd tegen Delta

De strijd tegen Delta

🕔11:00, 28.Oct 2021

Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van

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Burning US$5 bills

Burning US$5 bills

🕔08:03, 21.Oct 2021

Allocation views When faced with tough choices, we are inclined to limit the damage that is suffered. This is human instinct—a survival mechanism of sorts. It also brings to mind an old quip that portfolio managers use when considering outperforming

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AA Q4 outlook: pushing through bottlenecks

AA Q4 outlook: pushing through bottlenecks

🕔14:40, 20.Oct 2021

We are marginally more cautious as the Chinese economy becomes unsettled and supply-chain issues persist, but retain our belief that we are in the middle of the cycle, not approaching the end. After cruising along for months, the S&P 500

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The Red Dragon Is Breathing Fire. Will the Rest of World Get Roasted?

The Red Dragon Is Breathing Fire. Will the Rest of World Get Roasted?

🕔10:40, 20.Oct 2021

Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Multiple forces conspired to reduce the outlook for U.S. and global growth over the last three months. Equity market pricing reset lower in September, as Covid continued to confound health experts and frustrate those anxious to resume

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More Predictably Unpredictable

More Predictably Unpredictable

🕔08:05, 20.Oct 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After a crackdown on internet technology and educational companies last month, risks continue to emerge out of China, including the potential fallout in its massive real estate sector following missed debt payments by

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