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2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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Q2 Outlook: Staying the course

Q2 Outlook: Staying the course

🕔15:45, 3.May 2021

With record amounts of stimulus still gushing through global markets, and the economic cycle at a relatively early stage, we remain positive on risk assets. Risk assets have notched up strong and even spectacular returns from their pandemic lows, prompting

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Capital Markets View – April 2021

Capital Markets View – April 2021

🕔10:00, 3.May 2021

The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward

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Long Term Asset Class Forecast

Long Term Asset Class Forecast

🕔14:41, 30.Apr 2021

Our longer-term asset class forecasts are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia, generated through a combined assessment of current valuation measures, economic growth, inflation prospects, ESG considerations, yield conditions as well as historical price patterns. We also include

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Reason to Worry?

Reason to Worry?

🕔14:24, 22.Apr 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe  Equity markets are riding higher on unwavering optimism, which has driven the S&P 500 up over 20% above its pre-COVID-19 levels. Despite higher valuations, bouts of risk and pockets of froth in the

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As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

🕔10:18, 19.Apr 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to

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Ebb and Flow

Ebb and Flow

🕔16:44, 15.Apr 2021

The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …

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Commodities rewired

Commodities rewired

🕔14:03, 15.Apr 2021

Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …

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The vaccine rollout can boost the support driven recovery

The vaccine rollout can boost the support driven recovery

🕔08:37, 15.Apr 2021

The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout is improving the prospect of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain heavily supported …

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Foundations of a cycle-driven approach to asset allocation

Foundations of a cycle-driven approach to asset allocation

🕔13:55, 12.Apr 2021

Foundations of a cycle-driven approach to asset allocation Countercyclical Investing

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Barometer: Laat de rally doorgaan

Barometer: Laat de rally doorgaan

🕔11:15, 12.Apr 2021

Barometer: Laat de rally doorgaan  April 2021 Ruime monetaire en fiscale stimulansen zouden de economie en de bedrijfswinsten een sterke duw in de rug moeten geven. Daarom blijven we de voorkeur geven aan cyclische aandelen. De wereldeconomie kent een sterke

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Diversify your allocation to corporate bonds with multi-factor investing

Diversify your allocation to corporate bonds with multi-factor investing

🕔13:02, 8.Apr 2021

Over the past decade, multi-factor investing in corporate bonds has seen significant development. Easier access to better datasets along with an extensive body of research has enabled managers to move the dial significantly. Investors can now access robust factor-based strategies offering diversification benefits in corporate debt allocations.

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On pause… but vaccine rollout brings play closer

On pause… but vaccine rollout brings play closer

🕔10:52, 19.Mar 2021

The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …

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Some like it hot!

Some like it hot!

🕔08:24, 18.Mar 2021

At the end of last year, I reflected that you “gotta have faith in low discount rates” for risk assets, such as equities, to continue to perform well in 2021. While on the one hand the economic and earnings recovery from Covid-19 was, and continues to be, more potent than expected, allowing companies to grow-in to elevated multiples; on the other hand, an increase in ultra-cheap capital …

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Your Move, Mr. Powell?

Your Move, Mr. Powell?

🕔09:15, 16.Mar 2021

After years of muted inflation, investors are becoming concerned as a massive amount of pent-up demand is expected to be unleashed as the economy reemerges in the coming months, bringing higher price pressures. The excess savings that consumers have accumulated over the past year, plus an additional near USD 1.9 trillion fiscal package on the way, could also lead to demand …

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Investing Amidst a Tantrum in US Bond Markets

Investing Amidst a Tantrum in US Bond Markets

🕔16:12, 15.Mar 2021

February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …

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Some like it hot?

Some like it hot?

🕔12:16, 15.Mar 2021

We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …

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Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

🕔07:47, 12.Mar 2021

Het economisch herstel dat in de loop van 2021 aan kracht zal winnen, zou niet leiden tot een snel oplopende inflatie.

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Let’s Get Real

Let’s Get Real

🕔13:45, 9.Mar 2021

US real yields surged towards the end of February, spurring unpleasant memories of the ‘taper tantrum’ in 2013 when comments by Ben Bernanke, then Chair of the Federal Reserve, set off a 100bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields over several months. Now, as then, market expectations …

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Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

🕔09:07, 9.Mar 2021

How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …

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Multi-Factor Allocation

Multi-Factor Allocation

🕔15:55, 8.Mar 2021

Multi-asset teams in the asset management industry manage not only many active benchmarked funds but also customized mandates for hundreds or even thousands of institutional investors. Moreover, the arrival of Fintech in the asset manager industry with the development …

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What is the institutional outlook for #GovernmentBonds? – Research Highlights

What is the institutional outlook for #GovernmentBonds? – Research Highlights

🕔10:33, 5.Mar 2021

In the week of 22 February the 10-year Treasury yield jumped to its highest level since 14 February 2020 of 1.614%. This unexpected increase in yields makes us wonder what the institutional outlook is for rates and treasuries. 

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Blockchain, Big Tech and more in our Highlights of February

Blockchain, Big Tech and more in our Highlights of February

🕔11:27, 3.Mar 2021

This month, BNP Paribas Asset Management treated us with their monthly asset allocation report that discussed key market drivers such as expectations for additional fiscal stimulus in the US. BNP Paribas AM is in their own words ‘’cautiously optimistic’’ because they argue that looking

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The green decade

The green decade

🕔11:35, 1.Mar 2021

There is no shortage of challenges for long term investors. The strong performance of risk assets in 2020 has further compressed return expectations, and there exists ongoing concern about (i) how economies will emerge from the current crisis …

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Cross-Asset Correlations in the Corona Crisis

Cross-Asset Correlations in the Corona Crisis

🕔17:29, 26.Feb 2021

The extraordinary market movements of 2020 had a considerable impact on the correlations between major asset classes. Some long-established interactions, such as the co-movement of share prices and sovereign yields, decoupled …

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Global Asset Allocation Investment Perspective

Global Asset Allocation Investment Perspective

🕔08:21, 26.Feb 2021

The rally in global equity markets since November has been driven importantly by an optimistic outlook for management of COVID-19, and recent developments suggest this outlook is coming to pass.

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Downgrading government bonds

Downgrading government bonds

🕔16:28, 25.Feb 2021

Downgrading government bonds  Weekly commentary We broaden our tactical pro-risk stance in light of major developments since the publication of our 2021 outlook in December: the vaccine rollout and up to $2.8 trillion of additional U.S. fiscal spending this year.

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Off to a Quick Start

Off to a Quick Start

🕔14:27, 17.Feb 2021

While the Biden administration put eradicating the coronavirus at the top of its agenda, taking action on regulations with executive orders has also been a top priority. Deregulation was a defining focus of …

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Still a lot of uncertainty

Still a lot of uncertainty

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2021

It seems like global financial markets and economies are experiencing a neverending fluctuation between increased clarity, as we described in last months’ Allocation Views, and continued uncertainty. Depending on …

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Barometer: Daghandelaren tasten de aantrekkelijkheid van aandelen niet aan

Barometer: Daghandelaren tasten de aantrekkelijkheid van aandelen niet aan

🕔08:00, 10.Feb 2021

De vaccinatieprogramma’s komen wereldwijd op snelheid en ook de economische vooruitzichten worden beter, ondersteund door extra fiscale stimuleringsmaatregelen. Daarom blijven we overwogen in aandelen, met een voorkeur voor landen en sectoren die het meest …

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Asset Allocation Monthly – Cautiously Optimistic

Asset Allocation Monthly – Cautiously Optimistic

🕔10:21, 8.Feb 2021

The evolution of the coranvirus pandemic gives reasons both for optimism and for pessimism, albeit over different time frames. The pessimism is more in the near term as production bottlenecks hit vaccine supply, countries stumble in rolling out the vaccines they …

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Pictet AM – Webinar – Where next for markets – focus on the US

🕔15:00, 3.Feb 2021

Webinar – Where next for markets – focus on the US Register for a webcast with our Chief Strategist, Luca Paolini, where he will centre his thoughts on the US. In this month’s asset allocation webcast Luca will focus his

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UBP – Webinar – Managing liquidity in a low yielding environment

🕔09:00, 3.Feb 2021

Webinar – Managing liquidity in a low yielding environment 20 MINUTES with UBP – Fixed Income Opportunity Focus In a moderate growth and low rate scenario which seems to be prevailing, maintaining liquidity has become extremely costly for investors. Active

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Alpha Research – Asset Allocation Awards 2021

🕔16:00, 2.Feb 2021

Asset Allocation Awards 2021 Op 2 februari 2021 worden de Awards online uitgereikt. De winnaars zullen over hoe ze tot hun winnende allocatie zijn gekomen worden geïnterviewd door Eelco Ubbels, directeur/oprichter van Alpha Research, Ineke Valke, Senior Investment Strategist bij de Rabobank, Jelte

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Asset allocation and risk modeling of bitcoin in an institutional portfolio

Asset allocation and risk modeling of bitcoin in an institutional portfolio

🕔13:48, 2.Feb 2021

Asset allocation and risk modeling of bitcoin in an institutional portfolio Bitcoin recently celebrated its twelfth birthday, but in historical terms it is still very much in its infancy as compared to other major asset classes. In this paper we

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Top five Best Read Research – January

Top five Best Read Research – January

🕔10:50, 29.Jan 2021

A lot of OpinioPro readers gave the financial long-term outlook of Capital Group a good look. The key takeways from what Capital Group is expecting from the future is that economic growth is making a comeback whilst the current low interest rates can help investors move to the equity markets instead of other asset classes. What definitely makes this article worth reading is the very informative COVID winners and losers section it provides.

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T. Rowe Price – Webinar – Global Markets and the Implications for Asset Allocators – Q1 2021

🕔11:00, 28.Jan 2021

Webinar Global Markets and the Implications for Asset Allocators – Q1 2021 Join us on 28 January at 10:00am GMT / 11:00am CET for our quarterly asset allocation webinar. Yoram Lustig, Head of Multi-Asset Solutions EMEA, will discuss key asset

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Chasing unicorns

Chasing unicorns

🕔14:05, 25.Jan 2021

Unprecedented monetary and fiscal stimulus and late-year positive news on vaccines fueled a relentless rally in …

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Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally

Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally

🕔15:46, 18.Jan 2021

Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would

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Allocation views – A little more clarity?

Allocation views – A little more clarity?

🕔10:44, 18.Jan 2021

As we enter 2021, financial markets appear to be clinging to a more optimistic view of the world than the one we left behind in 2020. Undoubtedly we have reasons to be more hopeful, but it seems that we still

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Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout

Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout

🕔17:22, 15.Jan 2021

Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View  The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain

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Barometer: Een herstel waarin we kunnen geloven

Barometer: Een herstel waarin we kunnen geloven

🕔03:29, 13.Jan 2021

Barometer: Een herstel waarin we kunnen geloven Investment Outlook Januari 2021 De Covid-19-vaccins stellen ons in staat om voorbij de pandemie te kijken en ons te richten op de versterking van de economie, die verder ondersteund wordt door aanzienlijke stromen

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The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-stage Major Bubble

The Hazards of Asset Allocation in a Late-stage Major Bubble

🕔12:23, 8.Jan 2021

The long, long bull market since 2009 has finally matured into a fully-fledged epic bubble. Featuring extreme overvaluation, explosive price increases, frenzied issuance, and hysterically speculative investor behavior, I believe this event will be recorded as one of the great

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Emea

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Emea

🕔13:00, 22.Dec 2020

December 2020 Digging for Value Promising news on COVID-19 vaccines has triggered optimism for a return to normal next year, buoying deeply cyclical segments of the market that have been the hardest hit by shutdowns. November saw a strong rebound

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Nederlandse pensioenfondsen worstelen met lage dekkingsgraden

Nederlandse pensioenfondsen worstelen met lage dekkingsgraden

🕔14:43, 11.Dec 2020

… dus hoe is de dekkingsgraad in de afgelopen maand veranderd?

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CIO outlook: Time for Healing Q4 2020

CIO outlook: Time for Healing Q4 2020

🕔10:59, 9.Dec 2020

After contending with the terrible human and economic toll of a pandemic, as well as market volatility reminiscent of the financial crisis, investors could well be forgiven for wondering anxiously: what could 2021 possibly have in store for us?

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Offence wins Games but Defense wins Championships

Offence wins Games but Defense wins Championships

🕔15:00, 4.Dec 2020

Building resilient portfolios for uncertain times  Balancing protection and upside potential is a difficult exercise, but we hope investors will find some ideas and some inspiration on how to tackle it in this paper, whether it is through a dynamic

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2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔13:07, 3.Dec 2020

To build the income component of our long-term equity forecasts, we calculate each country’s expected income contribution, based on current and anticipated levels of dividend yield, as well as the expected returns attributable to buyback activity (positive) or net positive

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There’s No Place Like Housing

There’s No Place Like Housing

🕔09:41, 27.Nov 2020

Global Asset Allocation: The View from EMEA Blue Ripple? A Biden presidency, with Republicans maintaining control of the Senate, is a possible outcome of the US elections. Most polls heading into the election were predicting the possibility of a ‘Blue

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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