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Tag "Asset Allocation"

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

🕔08:22, 9.Dec 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …

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Uncorrelated Strategies

Uncorrelated Strategies

🕔10:26, 7.Dec 2022

For decades, investors have used a traditional balanced approach to asset allocation, diversifying across fixed income and equities. Investors have typically relied on fixed income to preserve capital and generate income, whilst looking to equities for capital appreciation. Although this

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Rational rebalancing: An analytical approach to multiasset portfolio rebalancing decisions and insights

Rational rebalancing: An analytical approach to multiasset portfolio rebalancing decisions and insights

🕔08:01, 7.Dec 2022

Investors’ portfolios should align with their goals and risk preferences, which makes the rebalancing of the asset allocation in a portfolio an important practice. Among the numerous rebalancing methods, is one more risk-returnefficient and cost-effective than others? In this paper,

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The Big Picture 2023 Outlook

The Big Picture 2023 Outlook

🕔16:50, 28.Nov 2022

Given our view that 2023 will be a year of transition from a contraction regime to one of recovery, we reduce the defensiveness of our Model Asset Allocation, while keeping some powder dry for when recovery is confirmed. We are

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The end of an era

The end of an era

🕔12:55, 25.Nov 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: With the September swoon in risk assets, markets have simply moved to unprice the optimism built up over the summer about the prospects of a pause in Fed tightening …  

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔14:17, 24.Nov 2022

On the surface, the better‑than‑expected rebound in US gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the third quarter would reinforce the Fed’s need to remain aggressive on tightening policy. However, looking at the details, there is growing evidence that the economy

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Quality Time in Small Cap

Quality Time in Small Cap

🕔12:54, 16.Nov 2022

We believe a moment has arrived when long-term and short-term opportunities in quality small cap equity are finally aligned, when one can invest in high-quality small …

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Barometer: Donkere wolken aan de hemel

Barometer: Donkere wolken aan de hemel

🕔16:44, 15.Nov 2022

De vooruitzichten voor risicovollere activaklassen zien er minder goed uit omdat renteverhogingen de economische groei wereldwijd blijven afremmen. De vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie worden slechter. Naarmate de centrale banken de rente verhogen om de inflatie te bestrijden, zal niet alleen

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Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 To 18 Months Horizon)

Central & Alternative Scenarios (12 To 18 Months Horizon)

🕔12:54, 14.Nov 2022

We maintain the content and probabilities of our scenarios. Note that some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by markets. It would take a combination of risk

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The long road to normalization

The long road to normalization

🕔14:21, 7.Nov 2022

Multi Asset Monthly: Central banks’ top priority remains the fight against inflation; nevertheless, their communication seems more balanced, indicating that expectations are also being considered. Inflation will moderate in 2023 but we are not close to a pivot. Central banks

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Anywhere to Hide?

Anywhere to Hide?

🕔10:58, 31.Oct 2022

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: Hopes for a continuation of the summer rally off the June lows were dashed in the back half of the third quarter. The inflection lower in risk assets coincided with Fed Chairman Jerome

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Policy Pressure

Policy Pressure

🕔14:23, 25.Oct 2022

Amid sticky inflation, central banks are continuing to maintain a hawkish stance with higher peak interest rates anticipated compared to last month. Nonetheless …

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Equity Market Outlook 4Q 2022

Equity Market Outlook 4Q 2022

🕔16:16, 24.Oct 2022

Economic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors The outlook we laid out last quarter remains unchanged, and yet the debate about whether we are in a bull or bear market has been as volatile as the market itself.

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Where do we find value in Emerging Market equities?

Where do we find value in Emerging Market equities?

🕔15:34, 19.Oct 2022

Emerging market equity returns have been resilient year-to-date in the face of increasing uncertainty over the global economy and rising interest rates. The region remains our preferred choice in our model asset allocation, especially if inflation peaks, which we expect

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Global House View – Q4 2022

Global House View – Q4 2022

🕔11:15, 19.Oct 2022

The year 2022 seems to have caused a regime shift in financial markets. In previous years, the assumption largely was that the world had more a deflationary issue due to aging, globalization and lack of bargaining power of labor. However

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Barometer: Aandelen blijven onaantrekkelijk, maar obligaties verdienen meer aandacht

Barometer: Aandelen blijven onaantrekkelijk, maar obligaties verdienen meer aandacht

🕔11:04, 18.Oct 2022

Aangezien de donkere wolken boven de economie nog niet zijn verdwenen, zullen aandelen wellicht verder dalen. Obligaties beginnen er echter aantrekkelijk uit te zien.

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Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

🕔12:50, 14.Oct 2022

Monthly investment outlook august 2022  Just as markets had to reprice a new interest rate regime in early-2022 amidst fading hopes for a transitory inflationary backdrop, they are now similarly beginning to recognise that the prospects of an economic soft

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The lifeboat economy

The lifeboat economy

🕔12:58, 10.Oct 2022

Along with imposing a terrible human toll, the Russia-Ukraine war is also reversing a powerful trend many of us have taken for granted: globalization. I’m pleased to introduce the latest publication from our Strategic Investment Advisory Group, The lifeboat economy:

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Bracing for a hard landing

Bracing for a hard landing

🕔16:13, 29.Sep 2022

Global Asset Allocation Insights Inflation is still stubbornly high, meaning the Fed and the ECB are keeping their feet pressed down on the hawkish pedal for now. However, growth data is turning sharply negative in developed markets as the consumer

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The Road Ahead

The Road Ahead

🕔14:01, 29.Sep 2022

Riddles in the Dark Time, the answer to Gollum’s riddle, is to us a vaunted teacher. The first half of 2022 has been a turbulent one. In analysing ‘The Road Ahead’ from this point, our first port is the precedent

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The autumn hard vs. soft landing puzzle

The autumn hard vs. soft landing puzzle

🕔08:59, 27.Sep 2022

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy  While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on

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Sticking with reduced risk taking

Sticking with reduced risk taking

🕔16:45, 26.Sep 2022

BII Global weekly commentary The new regime of macro volatility is playing out with weaker growth, persistent inflation and volatile markets. We stick with our dialed-down risk stance. U.S. stocks slumped and yields surged on a renewed rise in core

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:30, 26.Sep 2022

It Fooled You Once​… Coming out of the annual Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, unsurprisingly, had a strong tone reinforcing the Fed’s intention to fight inflation at any cost, a 180-degree reversal of his ‘inflation is transient’

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Global tactical asset allocation views brief

Global tactical asset allocation views brief

🕔13:45, 22.Sep 2022

Underpinned by waning inflation and strong job numbers in the US, equity markets started the month trending higher. Investors believed peak inflation would lead to a potential pivot in Federal Reserve (Fed) policy hawkishness. However, in his Jackson Hole speech,

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Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q4

Global Asset Allocation 2022 Q4

🕔10:25, 22.Sep 2022

Yields have again risen on all assets but we think this is largely compensating for greater policy/recession risk (we think we are in the contraction phase of the cycle). We boost cash to further Overweight, while reducing equities to further

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Advanced Investment Phazer: a guide to dynamic asset allocation

Advanced Investment Phazer: a guide to dynamic asset allocation

🕔08:05, 22.Sep 2022

Economic cycles have been a crucial driver for financial markets, making regime-based dynamic asset allocation (DAA) a common practice in supporting optimal portfolio construction. Changes in key economic indicators, monetary policy trends and the evolution of financial leverage have proven

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The Role of Alternatives: Multi-Level Diversification Across the Liquidity Spectrum

The Role of Alternatives: Multi-Level Diversification Across the Liquidity Spectrum

🕔14:08, 15.Sep 2022

As we have discussed in past research, true diversification benefits primarily result from the thoughtful combination of differentiated return streams (i.e., betas). By contrast, many investors assemble portfolios that reflect diversification-in-nameonly (DINO), by adding an ever-growing number of portfolio segments

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SEB House View – August 2022

SEB House View – August 2022

🕔14:25, 13.Sep 2022

Investment Regime: a phase of transition, complicated. • Markets are in a transition from a Covid world with low/zero interest rates and no inflation to super strong inflation and firm central banks • At this time visibility is limited both

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The bear-market rally is over

The bear-market rally is over

🕔08:49, 13.Sep 2022

The Jackson Hole conference made it clear that fighting inflation, even if it leads to economic hardship, is priority number one for monetary policymakers. Except for the Bank of Japan, central banks will stick to their aggressive tightening path, …

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Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA)

Relative and Absolute Momentum in Times of Rising/Low Yields: Bold Asset Allocation (BAA)

🕔16:34, 12.Sep 2022

Abstract Our aim is to develop a very offensive (‘aggressive’) tactical asset allocation strategy, by combining some of our previous models like Protected- (PAA), Vigilant- (VAA) and Defensive (DAA) Asset Allocation. We will call this new strategy the ‘Bold Asset

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Barometer: Zomerrally is al een verre herinnering

Barometer: Zomerrally is al een verre herinnering

🕔14:19, 12.Sep 2022

Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk

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Rising Risk of Recession

Rising Risk of Recession

🕔16:33, 2.Sep 2022

May’s reprieve proved short-lived as recession joined inflation fears pushing equity/bond prices lower in June. Concerns have risen as the increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric at its June meeting suggests a willingness to trade rising …

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Four shifts

Four shifts

🕔16:46, 30.Aug 2022

This downturn is global, not US-centric. The current gap between optimistic equity analysts and cautious economists is particularly pronounced. We believe earnings estimates are at risk as the slowdown we anticipate …

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Confronting the bear

Confronting the bear

🕔12:31, 29.Aug 2022

Introduction Welcome to another edition of Vantage Point, the quarterly economic and markets outlook from the Global Economics and Investment Analysis (GEIA) team. The past three months have seen a dramatic selloff of risky assets, driven largely by a recalibration of expectations

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔14:08, 22.Aug 2022

Market Themes Whatever It Takes 2.0 Keep On Smiling

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The benefits of multi asset strategies in an inflationary environment

The benefits of multi asset strategies in an inflationary environment

🕔10:40, 22.Aug 2022

Investors are witnessing unprecedented market conditions. Within a turbulent market environment charaterised by a high inflationary pressure, a shift from global to “glocal” trade patterns and a fading era of cheap energy, how can an active and agile multi asset

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Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

🕔08:13, 18.Aug 2022

Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …

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Maintaining a cautious tilt

Maintaining a cautious tilt

🕔14:08, 17.Aug 2022

Bad news was good news in July. With recession risks becoming more imminent especially for Europe, markets priced in an earlier easing of monetary policy. For the US, rate cuts are priced in as early as end of Q1 2023.

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Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

🕔08:52, 12.Aug 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:41, 3.Aug 2022

Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal

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Taking chips off the table but staying in the game

Taking chips off the table but staying in the game

🕔12:56, 2.Aug 2022

Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives | 3Q22 It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war

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Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

🕔08:55, 28.Jul 2022

Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a

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2022 Midyear Investment Outlook

2022 Midyear Investment Outlook

🕔08:03, 27.Jul 2022

Much of the world continues to move past the COVID-19 pandemic, but its remarkable effects on economies and policies remain top of mind as a new set of uncertainties enters the picture. Historic pandemic-era moves by both fiscal and monetary

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Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg

Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg

🕔08:30, 19.Jul 2022

Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.

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Building a Beta Portfolio in an Environment That Looks Difficult for Assets

Building a Beta Portfolio in an Environment That Looks Difficult for Assets

🕔13:50, 13.Jul 2022

I nvestors now face drastically different circumstances compared to the last decade’s favorable environment for beta in general and equities in particular. From an alpha perspective, our outlook for assets is dim. We worry about the impact of the ongoing

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Rates roller coaster

Rates roller coaster

🕔17:38, 12.Jul 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than

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Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

🕔15:50, 12.Jul 2022

Negative supply shocks and the hangover from large demand-side stimulus are keeping global inflation stubbornly high. Central banks, most notably the US Federal Reserve, are committed to reducing inflation by significantly tightening financial conditions. The extreme …

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Wealth preservation

Wealth preservation

🕔16:17, 11.Jul 2022

We believe we're in a new world order that will shape the rest of our lives. We're at the beginning of financial and geopolitical regime change. These arcs of history are bigger than any one man – but Nixon’s Gold

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Global Strategy 3Q 2022

Global Strategy 3Q 2022

🕔08:12, 5.Jul 2022

Ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-side shortages are leading to high inflation rates and a weaker economic outlook. In this tension field, central banks are tightening monetary policy. Weaker economic data could cause interest rate expectations to fall by the end

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False narratives will cost you money

False narratives will cost you money

🕔08:17, 4.Jul 2022

Key Takeaways: The equity correction is likely over as recession is not 12 months away. Nominal growth remains extraordinarily high relative to Fed hawkishness. The US central bank remains “behind the curve” despite flagging 200bps of hikes by year end.

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