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Aegon AM – Webinar – Wat brengt 2021?

🕔13:00, 20.Jan 2021

Webinar – Wat brengt 2021? 2020 gaat de boeken in als een jaar met vele extreme gebeurtenissen. Het virus zorgde voor een ongekende economische krimp, enorme steunpakketten en volatiele financiële markten. Wat staat ons te wachten in 2021? Kan de

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The return of the Brexit saga

The return of the Brexit saga

🕔07:43, 23.Sep 2020

Like a long-running TV series, the latest season of the Brexit saga brings new drama and tension. Like all good drama, there are twists and turns in the plot, unclear motivations of key characters, complexity and new set-piece showdowns. Last

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Economic and Political Backdrop

Economic and Political Backdrop

🕔07:41, 8.Sep 2020

The US A light week for economic data was highlighted by the Labour Department’s monthly non-farm payroll report, showing that employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, a number in line with consensus estimates. Temporary workers who were hired to

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Brexit moving back onto the agenda

Brexit moving back onto the agenda

🕔15:09, 29.Jun 2020

Research Blast  It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in

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Weekly Economic Commentary – The Jobs Data Doesn’t Add Up

Weekly Economic Commentary – The Jobs Data Doesn’t Add Up

🕔11:05, 17.Jun 2020

In this issue The Jobs Data Doesn’t Add Up Yes, Brexit Is Still An Issue Frustration For Food Producers

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Choices under uncertainty

Choices under uncertainty

🕔12:51, 26.Feb 2020

UBS House View, Monthly Letter Impeachment, Brexit, airstrikes, an epidemic, and yet the S&P 500 is at new highs. This is already a year for the history books, and we are just getting started. We began the year overweight in equities,

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Politics will continue to surprise

Politics will continue to surprise

🕔17:04, 24.Feb 2020

Compass 2020 Outlook Signing off 2019 and ushering in 2020 As the world economy revives unsteadily from its latest swoon, we use this edition of Compass to discuss both what happened in 2019 and some things to think about for

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Records, surprises and opportunities

Records, surprises and opportunities

🕔16:43, 24.Feb 2020

Global investment views As we approach the year-end, a look back over the past 12 months reminds us how unconventional this year of records has been. On the upside, equities rallied to historical highs in December and fixed income returns

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The prospects for economies and markets in 2020.

The prospects for economies and markets in 2020.

🕔09:29, 19.Feb 2020

Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this question,

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Goodbye to the United Kingdom

Goodbye to the United Kingdom

🕔16:30, 3.Feb 2020

Chart of the Week Starting tomorrow, February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be a member of the European Union (EU). More than 40 years after joining, majority of UK voters have decided that their countries' future

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Brexit made history. Goodbye United Kingdom.

Brexit made history. Goodbye United Kingdom.

🕔13:29, 3.Feb 2020

OpinioPro Brexit Monitor:  • The monitor was able to track the development of the Brexit Saga throughout time. Internet search highlighted the change in leadership, the struggle in parliament and the elusive Brexit deal (and its odds) • Search for

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Why add to (UK) equities?

Why add to (UK) equities?

🕔10:48, 31.Jan 2020

Asset Allocation update What a difference a year makes. After a bruising 2018, last year allowed investors to capture the second-best return on a blend of global equities and long-dated bonds in 30 years. For stocks it was also a year of

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Global Perspectives January 2020

Global Perspectives January 2020

🕔15:06, 24.Jan 2020

Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this

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De voorbije week in een notendop

De voorbije week in een notendop

🕔13:01, 22.Jan 2020

In hun eerste handelsovereenkomst met China vragen de VS om meer industriële goederen, energie en landbouwproducten te kunnen exporteren. De handelsspanningen nemen af, maar de meeste Amerikaanse tarieven op Chinese goederen blijven bestaan.  De solide cijfers voor de Chinese economie (bv. industriële

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Flexibility does not come for free

Flexibility does not come for free

🕔11:30, 21.Jan 2020

Insight An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the UK will “not

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Bank of England signals January rate cut

Bank of England signals January rate cut

🕔09:57, 17.Jan 2020

We change our forecast to a near-term rate cut After a year of political uncertainty and volatility in the UK, more recently it has been the economic outlook that has recorded sudden change. As Governor Carney approaches his last monetary policy meeting as

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Euphoria of Tory landslide tempered by uncertainty of forthcoming trade negotiations

Euphoria of Tory landslide tempered by uncertainty of forthcoming trade negotiations

🕔10:34, 16.Jan 2020

House View What a week! Over the course of three days, investors were treated to a triple whammy of encouraging news. First, it was smooth sailing at Christine Lagarde’s first press release as head of the European Central Bank. As

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Top Risk 2020

Top Risk 2020

🕔14:06, 14.Jan 2020

2020 is a tipping point. 2020 is a tipping point.We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Outside of geopolitics, global trends have been strongly favorable. That’s now changing. Globalization is key.

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Pyrspectives

Pyrspectives

🕔08:15, 8.Jan 2020

Few political earthquakes come as big as this one. Boris Johnson has defied his critics and sceptics, including many in his own Party, and redrawn the political map of the UK. It is no small triumph that will become part

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Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update

Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update

🕔10:56, 31.Dec 2019

Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China

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Elections clear way for Brexit

Elections clear way for Brexit

🕔10:44, 18.Dec 2019

The risks of a hard break as of January 31 were already low, but are now off the table. For the markets, this should mean a little more confidence in an – albeit slow – recovery of the Eurozone economy.

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UK general elections

UK general elections

🕔09:47, 18.Dec 2019

Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement

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Lagarde, Johnson, Trump

Lagarde, Johnson, Trump

🕔07:42, 18.Dec 2019

ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of

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Johnson wins UK General Election – Brexit and the cost of election promises

Johnson wins UK General Election – Brexit and the cost of election promises

🕔16:59, 17.Dec 2019

The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This

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It is getting (a bit) clearer

It is getting (a bit) clearer

🕔15:53, 17.Dec 2019

Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have

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The people have spoken, so what next for UK markets?

The people have spoken, so what next for UK markets?

🕔14:48, 17.Dec 2019

The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the

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Brexit a go after clear Conservative win

Brexit a go after clear Conservative win

🕔10:29, 17.Dec 2019

The ruling UK Conservative Party won a large outright majority in Thursday’s election, giving Prime Minister Boris Johnson a stable government and mandate to deliver Brexit in January. The pound and domestic-focused UK equities should benefit from greater political certainty

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The land that time forgot

The land that time forgot

🕔07:39, 11.Dec 2019

Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.

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When political risk crosses the Atlantic

When political risk crosses the Atlantic

🕔12:54, 10.Dec 2019

Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation

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Elections – NHS promises are not forgotten

Elections – NHS promises are not forgotten

🕔12:37, 9.Dec 2019

‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor'

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The Next Recession

The Next Recession

🕔13:44, 7.Dec 2019

Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn  

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Early signs of stabilization

Early signs of stabilization

🕔12:48, 6.Dec 2019

Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China

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The global economy at the crossroads

The global economy at the crossroads

🕔11:43, 5.Dec 2019

Dear Reader, Following the shock caused by near-20% declines during the fourth quarter of 2018, global equity markets rebounded strongly in early 2019 as the US Federal Reserve brought its rate hikes to an end in the first quarter before

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October has been dominated by big political misses

October has been dominated by big political misses

🕔12:00, 4.Dec 2019

Market Overview October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how

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The view from EMEA

The view from EMEA

🕔14:03, 3.Dec 2019

Global Asset Allocation  Down But Not Out After 21 months of slowing global growth, we are starting to see signs of stabilization, signaled by a potential bottoming in the industrial economy. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up in

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ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

🕔13:36, 2.Dec 2019

Market Analysis and Principal Investment Themes These cyclical shifts are based on: Encouraging declarations over a first phase agreement in the US-China trade talks; A much reduced risk of a hard Brexit in the short term; and A few PMI

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Last chance for Remain?

Last chance for Remain?

🕔07:44, 27.Nov 2019

The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,

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Brexit: The Home Straight

Brexit: The Home Straight

🕔18:45, 25.Nov 2019

A roadmap for the upcoming weeks projects meaningful mood swings Tentative ranges for cable: 1.10 for worst case; 1.30 for orderly exit; 1.55 for remain Ostensible inactivity between October 2 and October 14 may add more uncertainty to the process

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Brexit: The End Of The Beginning

Brexit: The End Of The Beginning

🕔07:41, 22.Nov 2019

The final departure from 10 Downing Street is the defining visual that accompanies the end of every British premiership. Whether it’s the last wave in front of the famous black door, an emotional resignation from the podium, or the tear-stained

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UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

🕔17:29, 19.Nov 2019

The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled

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UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

🕔16:54, 14.Nov 2019

The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.

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UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

🕔15:57, 12.Nov 2019

The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his

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Asset Allocation update: Which way next?

Asset Allocation update: Which way next?

🕔14:03, 12.Nov 2019

November 2019 As 2019 draws to a close, we are strikingly neutral across asset classes and with considerably less appetite for risk than at the start of the year (Figure 1). Various market positioning and flow measures suggest we are

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Nearing the top of the wall of worries?

Nearing the top of the wall of worries?

🕔07:27, 11.Nov 2019

Highlights The trade war did not escalate further in October. It is too early to assess the damage that has already been inflicted on the economy. Whether we will witness a recession or not will depend on the resilience of

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Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

🕔16:34, 7.Nov 2019

LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power

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Limbo for markets will not last forever

Limbo for markets will not last forever

🕔15:00, 7.Nov 2019

Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range

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Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

🕔10:30, 7.Nov 2019

The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned

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A National sport: Betting on Brexit

A National sport: Betting on Brexit

🕔09:34, 7.Nov 2019

‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor’ The Brexit Saga has people searching for news by the hour across the globe. People don’t want to miss a thing and want to know when parliament is going to vote: see the surge in ‘Brexit vote

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The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

🕔07:46, 7.Nov 2019

Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but

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Geopolitical clouds start to clear

Geopolitical clouds start to clear

🕔15:35, 6.Nov 2019

In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the

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