These superheroes all contribute in their own way to a rise in prices, wages, economic growth and asset prices. See inside cover for details. In this year’s Outlook, we look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are
Property investors are examining the emerging “new normal” as input into capital deployment plans for the months ahead. If history is a guide, the UK will capture a lion’s share of planned investment because its defining features remain extremely attractive
The EU-UK trade deal leaves open questions But the exclusion of some areas brings opportunity for reform. The wait is finally over. Four‑and‑a‑half years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has exited the European Union’s single market and customs union,
As widely expected, the core of the deal is a zero-tariff/zero-quota free trade agreement for goods. This means that EU-UK trade will be much less affected than if the UK had ‘crashed out’ without a deal, to be governed solely
Like a long-running TV series, the latest season of the Brexit saga brings new drama and tension. Like all good drama, there are twists and turns in the plot, unclear motivations of key characters, complexity and new set-piece showdowns. Last
The US A light week for economic data was highlighted by the Labour Department’s monthly non-farm payroll report, showing that employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, a number in line with consensus estimates. Temporary workers who were hired to
Research Blast It feels like a different era whereby every conversation around the UK commercial real estate market evolved around the topic of Brexit. Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in Europe, the issue was hardly mentioned. But as transactions in
In this issue The Jobs Data Doesn’t Add Up Yes, Brexit Is Still An Issue Frustration For Food Producers
UBS House View, Monthly Letter Impeachment, Brexit, airstrikes, an epidemic, and yet the S&P 500 is at new highs. This is already a year for the history books, and we are just getting started. We began the year overweight in equities,
Compass 2020 Outlook Signing off 2019 and ushering in 2020 As the world economy revives unsteadily from its latest swoon, we use this edition of Compass to discuss both what happened in 2019 and some things to think about for
Global investment views As we approach the year-end, a look back over the past 12 months reminds us how unconventional this year of records has been. On the upside, equities rallied to historical highs in December and fixed income returns
Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this question,
Chart of the Week Starting tomorrow, February 1, 2020, the United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be a member of the European Union (EU). More than 40 years after joining, majority of UK voters have decided that their countries' future
OpinioPro Brexit Monitor: • The monitor was able to track the development of the Brexit Saga throughout time. Internet search highlighted the change in leadership, the struggle in parliament and the elusive Brexit deal (and its odds) • Search for
Asset Allocation update What a difference a year makes. After a bruising 2018, last year allowed investors to capture the second-best return on a blend of global equities and long-dated bonds in 30 years. For stocks it was also a year of
Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this
In hun eerste handelsovereenkomst met China vragen de VS om meer industriële goederen, energie en landbouwproducten te kunnen exporteren. De handelsspanningen nemen af, maar de meeste Amerikaanse tarieven op Chinese goederen blijven bestaan. De solide cijfers voor de Chinese economie (bv. industriële
Insight An EU-UK free trade agreement will result in new barriers to trade and border friction even if the UK chooses to unilaterally align itself with EU rules and regulations. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has said that the UK will “not
We change our forecast to a near-term rate cut After a year of political uncertainty and volatility in the UK, more recently it has been the economic outlook that has recorded sudden change. As Governor Carney approaches his last monetary policy meeting as
House View What a week! Over the course of three days, investors were treated to a triple whammy of encouraging news. First, it was smooth sailing at Christine Lagarde’s first press release as head of the European Central Bank. As
2020 is a tipping point. 2020 is a tipping point.We’ve lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but without a true international crisis. Outside of geopolitics, global trends have been strongly favorable. That’s now changing. Globalization is key.
Few political earthquakes come as big as this one. Boris Johnson has defied his critics and sceptics, including many in his own Party, and redrawn the political map of the UK. It is no small triumph that will become part
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
The risks of a hard break as of January 31 were already low, but are now off the table. For the markets, this should mean a little more confidence in an – albeit slow – recovery of the Eurozone economy.
Yesterday’s results imply Mr. Johnson will ‘get Brexit done’. However, his plan to get a trade agreement done by the end of 2020 is likely to hit some snags. Indeed, the hard work begins now, and even a bare-bones agreement
ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of
The Conservative Party under Boris Johnson secured a much bigger win in the election than polls had suggested. At the time of writing (1 seat outstanding), the Conservative looked on track to secure 365 seats and a majority of 80. This
Global macro risks receding. As 2019 is drawing to a close, the major global macro risks are receding. The US will not implement the round of tariff hikes on Chinese products scheduled for 15 December while the UK elections have
The near-term impact of the election result has been positive for markets, but what are the longer-term implications for the UK as a destination of global capital? Fidelity Global Special Situations Fund Manager Jeremy Podger gives his view on the
The ruling UK Conservative Party won a large outright majority in Thursday’s election, giving Prime Minister Boris Johnson a stable government and mandate to deliver Brexit in January. The pound and domestic-focused UK equities should benefit from greater political certainty
Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor'
Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn
Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China
Dear Reader, Following the shock caused by near-20% declines during the fourth quarter of 2018, global equity markets rebounded strongly in early 2019 as the US Federal Reserve brought its rate hikes to an end in the first quarter before
Market Overview October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how
Global Asset Allocation Down But Not Out After 21 months of slowing global growth, we are starting to see signs of stabilization, signaled by a potential bottoming in the industrial economy. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up in
Market Analysis and Principal Investment Themes These cyclical shifts are based on: Encouraging declarations over a first phase agreement in the US-China trade talks; A much reduced risk of a hard Brexit in the short term; and A few PMI
The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,
A roadmap for the upcoming weeks projects meaningful mood swings Tentative ranges for cable: 1.10 for worst case; 1.30 for orderly exit; 1.55 for remain Ostensible inactivity between October 2 and October 14 may add more uncertainty to the process
The final departure from 10 Downing Street is the defining visual that accompanies the end of every British premiership. Whether it’s the last wave in front of the famous black door, an emotional resignation from the podium, or the tear-stained
The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled
The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
November 2019 As 2019 draws to a close, we are strikingly neutral across asset classes and with considerably less appetite for risk than at the start of the year (Figure 1). Various market positioning and flow measures suggest we are
Highlights The trade war did not escalate further in October. It is too early to assess the damage that has already been inflicted on the economy. Whether we will witness a recession or not will depend on the resilience of
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned
