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Elections – NHS promises are not forgotten

Elections – NHS promises are not forgotten

🕔12:37, 9.dec 2019

‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor'

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The Next Recession

The Next Recession

🕔13:44, 7.dec 2019

Economic Outlook Presentation Recession Odds Recession Triggers Road to Recession Policy Response How Severe a Downturn  

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Early signs of stabilization

Early signs of stabilization

🕔12:48, 6.dec 2019

Downside risks to global growth have shrunk in recent months. But we do not see much potential for an upside surprise either. In recent months, leading economic indicators stabilized. We remain somewhat hopeful that a truce in the trade war between China

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The global economy at the crossroads

The global economy at the crossroads

🕔11:43, 5.dec 2019

Dear Reader, Following the shock caused by near-20% declines during the fourth quarter of 2018, global equity markets rebounded strongly in early 2019 as the US Federal Reserve brought its rate hikes to an end in the first quarter before

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October has been dominated by big political misses

October has been dominated by big political misses

🕔12:00, 4.dec 2019

Market Overview October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how

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The view from EMEA

The view from EMEA

🕔14:03, 3.dec 2019

Global Asset Allocation  Down But Not Out After 21 months of slowing global growth, we are starting to see signs of stabilization, signaled by a potential bottoming in the industrial economy. The J.P. Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI ticked up in

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ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

ASSET ALLOCATION STRATEGY

🕔13:36, 2.dec 2019

Market Analysis and Principal Investment Themes These cyclical shifts are based on: Encouraging declarations over a first phase agreement in the US-China trade talks; A much reduced risk of a hard Brexit in the short term; and A few PMI

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Last chance for Remain?

Last chance for Remain?

🕔07:44, 27.nov 2019

The UK votes in a general election on 12 December. Polls point to a Conservative victory, but another hung parliament is also possible In any case, the risk of a disorderly Brexit is now very low With a Conservative majority,

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Brexit: The Home Straight

Brexit: The Home Straight

🕔18:45, 25.nov 2019

A roadmap for the upcoming weeks projects meaningful mood swings Tentative ranges for cable: 1.10 for worst case; 1.30 for orderly exit; 1.55 for remain Ostensible inactivity between October 2 and October 14 may add more uncertainty to the process

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Brexit: The End Of The Beginning

Brexit: The End Of The Beginning

🕔07:41, 22.nov 2019

The final departure from 10 Downing Street is the defining visual that accompanies the end of every British premiership. Whether it’s the last wave in front of the famous black door, an emotional resignation from the podium, or the tear-stained

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UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

UK faces Brexit-fuelled General Election – what happens next?

🕔17:29, 19.nov 2019

The outcome of the 12 December UK General Election could allow the UK to finally settle the issue of leaving the European Union (EU). This could be by passing the current negotiated Tory deal, choosing another deal under a Labourled

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UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

UK economy rebounds to avoid recession

🕔16:54, 14.nov 2019

The first release of UK GDP for the third quarter shows the economy avoided a technical recession. Real GDP growth was 0.3% quarter-on-quarter compared to -0.2% in the second quarter, although the latest figure did disappoint consensus expectations of 0.4%.

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UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

🕔15:57, 12.nov 2019

The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his

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Asset Allocation update: Which way next?

Asset Allocation update: Which way next?

🕔14:03, 12.nov 2019

November 2019 As 2019 draws to a close, we are strikingly neutral across asset classes and with considerably less appetite for risk than at the start of the year (Figure 1). Various market positioning and flow measures suggest we are

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Nearing the top of the wall of worries?

Nearing the top of the wall of worries?

🕔07:27, 11.nov 2019

Highlights The trade war did not escalate further in October. It is too early to assess the damage that has already been inflicted on the economy. Whether we will witness a recession or not will depend on the resilience of

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Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

🕔16:34, 7.nov 2019

LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power

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Limbo for markets will not last forever

Limbo for markets will not last forever

🕔15:00, 7.nov 2019

Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range

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Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

Markets may have changed a little but the fundamental trend has not

🕔10:30, 7.nov 2019

The recent drop in political risk is a significant shift in a climate of almost constant one-upmanship. It is highly likely that hopes over a US-China deal and the diminishing risk of a hard Brexit mainly reflect the willingness of all concerned

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A National sport: Betting on Brexit

A National sport: Betting on Brexit

🕔09:34, 7.nov 2019

‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor’ The Brexit Saga has people searching for news by the hour across the globe. People don’t want to miss a thing and want to know when parliament is going to vote: see the surge in ‘Brexit vote

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The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.

🕔07:46, 7.nov 2019

Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but

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Geopolitical clouds start to clear

Geopolitical clouds start to clear

🕔15:35, 6.nov 2019

In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the

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Countdown to Brexit: Will a Christmas Election Deliver Clarity?

Countdown to Brexit: Will a Christmas Election Deliver Clarity?

🕔17:53, 5.nov 2019

December’s poll could lead to a quick exit—or a lengthy delay The UK’s general election on December 12 may finally bring some long‑awaited clarity over Brexit—or it may deliver an extended period of uncertainty and confusion. The poll will almost

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Brexit extension will ease uncertainty looming on UK assets

Brexit extension will ease uncertainty looming on UK assets

🕔16:33, 31.okt 2019

Recent developments and next steps: Following the three-month extension granted to the UK by the EU on 28 October and the newly announced snap election, the most likely outcome is that the Withdrawal Agreement signed on 17 October between the

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Brexit ‘Article 50’ deadline extended

Brexit ‘Article 50’ deadline extended

🕔16:52, 30.okt 2019

EU agrees to extend Brexit deadline The European Union (EU) has agreed in principle to extend Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. This delays the UK’s scheduled departure from the European Union (EU) that was due to occur on 31

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Will Brexit wreck it for UK credit?

Will Brexit wreck it for UK credit?

🕔11:13, 28.okt 2019

It is our view that the potentially negative impacts of an unruly departure from the EU are likely to be felt more acutely by the economy itself rather than credit markets As we approach 31 October and the UK’s deadline

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Zoek

Asset Allocation Consensus September

Evenementen

  1. InsingerGilissen – ‘duurzaam beleggen is de nieuwe norm’

    december 10 @ 08:30 - 11:30
  2. IPF – Besturen en beleggen in 2020

    december 12 @ 10:00 - 16:00
  3. CFA – Macro-economic forecast for 2020

    december 12 @ 15:30 - 19:00
  4. JP Morgan – 2020: A make or break year?

    december 12 @ 17:30 - 21:30
  5. Asset Management Kerstborrel

    december 17 @ 17:30 - 22:00

Twitter

Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!

Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP

De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx

Obligaties uit frontier markets keren nog wel hoge coupons uit en de default-kans is verrassend laag. "Er moet veel gebeuren om negatief te eindigen," zegt Thomas Christiansen van @UBP_Group @IEXProfs https://t.co/gDP9nspIJw

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