Special Report | CEE | Economy The CEE labor market may seem barely affected by the virus if compared with a dramatic increase, first, in US jobless claims, and then the unemployment rate within a very short period of time.
CEE Market Insights This week, we will continue with releases of the GDP structure in Czechia and Slovakia. We also get to see the first estimate of Serbian 1Q20 GDP. Serbia is likely to be the sweet spot in the
CEE Market Insights At the end of this week, CEE countries will start to release their detailed GDP data for 1Q20. Croatia and Slovenia will publish their 1Q growth rates for the first time. We expect that Croatia’s economy grew
CEE Forex News | CEE | FX After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to …
CEE Market Insights Due Friday, economic growth in the first quarter in Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia will be the highlight of the week. Czechia and Slovakia are expected to contract 3.1% y/y and 3.9% y/y, respectively. Hungary, Poland
Once the turmoil caused by COVID-19 subsides, there will be a need for reflection and strategic decisions on how to move forward and be prepared for the next challenges to be faced. The vast majority of EU member countries opted
CEE Market Insights This week, the central bank meetings in Czechia and Serbia should be the key events in the region. While stability of rates is broadly expected in Serbia, the Czech National Bank is, in our view, about to
CEE Bond Market Report | CEE | Fixed Income The coronavirus pandemic has hit CEE hard. Governments in most countries have come out with substantial stimulus packages, but the deterioration of tax revenues will also hit budgets. An inevitable consequence
The week after Easter brings inflation releases across the region. For all of the countries, we expect to see easing inflation numbers in March. Such a development is mostly the outcome of the low oil price. On the other hand,
CEE Market Insights Determining the probable impact of the coronavirus on the economy is the main news topic at the moment. Over the weekend, Hungary announced the fiscal package and more details should be delivered at the beginning of the
CEE Market Insights This week in CEE Market sentiment data will be in focus this week – and the only question is by how much sentiment has worsened in March. Due to the dynamically changing situation, the February retail sales
CEE Market Insights This week, we will see the inflation rate in Croatia as well as labor market data. In Poland, retail sales and industrial growth in February will be published; however, the impact of the coronavirus is still likely
To mitigate its shrinking working age population, CEE has a hidden reserves in low female labor participation, low effective retirement age, as well as more active migration and family policies. There is no quick way to escape aging as the
Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Europe, we will revise our CEE growth forecast downward by around 0.3pp toward 2.6%, with country-specific revisions going from around 0.3pp in the cases of Czechia, Hungary and Poland to as much
Special Report | CEE | Economy Inflation on rise in CEE, central banks get vigilant Inflation rates in CEE are currently among the highest in Europe. The series of upside surprises began in December 2019 and January repeated the pattern. Inflation
CEE Market Insights Economic data for January not hit by coronavirus, yet. Polish MPC to debate the rates. The week begins with release of Serbian 4QGDP and we expect to see the strongest performance since 2008. Further, industrial output and
CEE Bond Market Report CEE could face limited issuance this year. The fundamentals are generally fine, except for Romania, where the rating outlook is negative. High inflation does not warrant too much spread narrowing in CEE, except for Croatia and
CEE Market Insights This week in CEE Throughout the week, we will keep seeing inflation rate figures across CEE countries. In Hungary and Romania, we expect the headline number to land at 4.0% y/y in December, marking a visible increase
We wish all our readers Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2020. The next CEE Insights will be released on January 7. We now switch to holiday mood, as the macro release calendar will be pretty empty in the
November’s inflation rate will be published in most of the CEE countries and we expect it to rise everywhere. In Poland, an increase to 2.6% y/y should be confirmed, on the back of dynamic growth of food prices. The same
CEE Market Insights Serbia, Slovakia and Romania are the last three countries in the CEE world to release the 3Q19 GDP growth figure and its structure this week. With a complete picture on growth drivers across CEE, we will be
Throughout the year, CEE economies have been among the growth leaders in Europe. We expect them to remain so next year, despite external headwinds that are behind the slowdown. So far, strong domestic demand has been shielding the region from
This week, we should get confirmation that the strength of CEE economies lies in domestic demand. Consumer confidence is strong, as the unemployment rate hit historically low levels and wages keep growing. Such a situation translates into robust private consumption
This week is all about Thursday and flash GDP data releases for the third quarter in most CEE countries. Despite all the odds stemming from the worsening external environment and recent weakening of market sentiment, we expect the region to
It is going to be quite an eventful week, with four central bank decisions at the center of attention. After interest rate cut in the US and the Fed announcing a pause, we expect CEE central banks to remain on
"Our midyear #outlook" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/blackrock/our-midyear-outlook/
"Monthly Must-Reads" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/opiniopro-selection/monthly-must-reads/
"Road to Recovery" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/opiniopro-selection/road-to-recovery/ #recovery #credit #monetarystimulus #spreads
"Investment Strategy Commentary: Will the V Become a W?" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/northern-trust/investment-strategy-commentary-will-the-v-become-a-w/
