CEE Bond Market Report CEE could face limited issuance this year. The fundamentals are generally fine, except for Romania, where the rating outlook is negative. High inflation does not warrant too much spread narrowing in CEE, except for Croatia and
CEE Market Insights This week in CEE Throughout the week, we will keep seeing inflation rate figures across CEE countries. In Hungary and Romania, we expect the headline number to land at 4.0% y/y in December, marking a visible increase
We wish all our readers Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2020. The next CEE Insights will be released on January 7. We now switch to holiday mood, as the macro release calendar will be pretty empty in the
November’s inflation rate will be published in most of the CEE countries and we expect it to rise everywhere. In Poland, an increase to 2.6% y/y should be confirmed, on the back of dynamic growth of food prices. The same
CEE Market Insights Serbia, Slovakia and Romania are the last three countries in the CEE world to release the 3Q19 GDP growth figure and its structure this week. With a complete picture on growth drivers across CEE, we will be
Throughout the year, CEE economies have been among the growth leaders in Europe. We expect them to remain so next year, despite external headwinds that are behind the slowdown. So far, strong domestic demand has been shielding the region from
This week, we should get confirmation that the strength of CEE economies lies in domestic demand. Consumer confidence is strong, as the unemployment rate hit historically low levels and wages keep growing. Such a situation translates into robust private consumption
This week is all about Thursday and flash GDP data releases for the third quarter in most CEE countries. Despite all the odds stemming from the worsening external environment and recent weakening of market sentiment, we expect the region to
It is going to be quite an eventful week, with four central bank decisions at the center of attention. After interest rate cut in the US and the Fed announcing a pause, we expect CEE central banks to remain on
Looking at the issuance performance so far this year, CEE countries have done a very good job. Several countries have already covered this year’s issuance plan and many others have also reached a high number. Slovakia seems to be lagging
Currencies fell last week in the region, but the stronger the yield declines of bond markets, the more robust the weakening in the currency that took place. We saw that regional markets reacted not much to international market developments (Saudi
Recently-published flash estimates of GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) depict a rather supportive picture of economic activity in the second quarter (Q2) (Exhibit 1). Undoubtedly, the quarterly growth clip decelerated somewhat, but remained laudable with Poland up
While markets are trying to digest what the ECB’s new measures may mean in the longer run, CEE will see first monthly indicators from the real economy from August, as Poland will release important figures that could provide important insight
Strong domestic demand shields CEE from German slowdown – for now Slowdown is expected for CEE, but growth difference vs. Euro Area could remain substantial Volatility to stay elevated on CEE FXFI markets
The US dollar’s strength did not do CEE currencies much good and while there were, in some cases, local factors behind the fall (especially in Hungary, where the HUF hit an all-time low), the decline in regional FX could mostly
Which weapon will be drawn next? The trade dispute continues to dominate financial market activity. Which weapon will be drawn next? Will China also raise tariffs in retaliation after the recent escalation by the US, or perhaps even block exports
The moment of truth could come this week, as 2Q19 GDP releases could indicate how much the German manufacturing slowdown plagued CEE growth. This could easily have implications for regional currencies and rates, too. Last week’s positive performance of the
CESKE DRAHY Earnings Developments The year 2018 has seen accelerating growth for CD. The ongoing transformation of CD into a modern, efficient, competitive and customer-focused railway mobility Group is supported by large investments and a strong Czech economy. Group revenues
CEE currencies became more attractive as the lack of room to ease rates domestically met with decreasing rate expectations on major markets. The Czech koruna seems to be the slight exception, as rate expectations are also easing there, given the
Given the demographic challenges, reliance on the PAYG system implies lower benefits for pensioners, a need to increase social contributions or retirement age in the future. As a decision is needed in a matter for decades rather than immediately, the
Fixed Income | CEE Domestic demand should soften the slowdown in GDP growth Not all CEE countries have managed to build sufficient fiscal space Czech and Hungarian central banks to tighten monetary conditions this year
Accelerated credit growth in CEE should not cause any headaches. Current growth rates are well below the 20-30% pre-crisis credit growth dynamics. Debt to GDP ratios are also rather low. As interest rates remain low, central banks carried out macro
Market outlook The EURRON was finally put under control last week. It was clearly benefiting from the more dovish FED together with other regional currencies, but domestic factors might have also been at play, including recent statements by the finance
At the beginning of the new decade, CEE countries are likely to face a number of challenges as far as economic growth and convergence are concerned. Although the current EU funding programming period ensures the CEE region a solid flow
Government bond yields should drift higher in 2019 Only Czech National Bank is to increase rates this year We expect sovereign rating upgrades in several CEE countries
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
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