Given the demographic challenges, reliance on the PAYG system implies lower benefits for pensioners, a need to increase social contributions or retirement age in the future. As a decision is needed in a matter for decades rather than immediately, the
Fixed Income | CEE Domestic demand should soften the slowdown in GDP growth Not all CEE countries have managed to build sufficient fiscal space Czech and Hungarian central banks to tighten monetary conditions this year
Accelerated credit growth in CEE should not cause any headaches. Current growth rates are well below the 20-30% pre-crisis credit growth dynamics. Debt to GDP ratios are also rather low. As interest rates remain low, central banks carried out macro
Market outlook The EURRON was finally put under control last week. It was clearly benefiting from the more dovish FED together with other regional currencies, but domestic factors might have also been at play, including recent statements by the finance
At the beginning of the new decade, CEE countries are likely to face a number of challenges as far as economic growth and convergence are concerned. Although the current EU funding programming period ensures the CEE region a solid flow
Government bond yields should drift higher in 2019 Only Czech National Bank is to increase rates this year We expect sovereign rating upgrades in several CEE countries
GDP growth to decelerate in 2019 due to weaker external environment Hard Brexit and trade wars remain main risk for growth in CEE Checklist of most important events in CEE to be watched in 2019
Market outlook All CEE currencies except for the Serbian dinar gained last week. While the koruna, forint, zloty and leu benefited the most from the EURUSD development, the appreciation of the Croatian kuna seems to have been driven by strong
Market outlook Currencies showed a mixed performance in CEE last week. The Polish zloty pared earlier losses, as investors seem to have swallowed the corruption scandal to some extent. Currently, the EURPLN is close to our forecast. In Hungary, however,
Credit Markets Weekly Most recent US measures were not entirely surprising So far, the European credit markets have not reacted to the recent development in the trade conflict between USA and China. In fact, spreads have even narrowed slightly. This
Market outlook The best regional performer was the Czech koruna, boosted not just by rate hike comments, but perhaps also by increasing hopes that the prospects of a large-scale trade war are fading. The forint only benefited towards the end
GDP growth still favorable on average in second quarter Limited-scale trade war could be manageable for CEE CEE could still bear high wage growth, but increasing pressure to reform
Week ahead Next week (September 21), a flash estimate of the manufacturing sentiment of the Eurozone, Germany and France will be published for September. The sentiment slightly declined in August, due to the worsening of the trade conflict and the
Outlook CEE currencies mostly fell last week, amid renewed tensions in Turkey and Argentina, although Friday saw some positive correction. The Hungarian forint suffered the most, while the CZK seems to have benefitted from increased expectations of additional hike(s) from
CEE currencies were hit last week, due to the deterioration in international sentiment. The EURHUF breached historical highs (above 330); the forint was the most vulnerable, as the ultra-dovish MNB policy amplified international woes. Without a change in the MNB’s
CEE currencies were hit last week, due to the deterioration in international sentiment. The EURHUF breached historical highs (above 330); the forint was the most vulnerable, as the ultra-dovish MNB policy amplified international woes. Without a change in the MNB’s
Special Report CEE governments cut debt and fiscal deficits notably in recent years Savings in interest costs and the economic upswing helped budgets significantly Focus should be to create fiscal buffers for downturn and on public investments
Outlook On Friday, CEE currencies erased some of their losses accumulated since the beginning of last week. The relatively strong PMI data published for a number of Euro Area countries on Friday provided some relief to CEE currencies, after they
Outlook On Friday, CEE currencies erased some of their losses accumulated since the beginning of last week. The relatively strong PMI data published for a number of Euro Area countries on Friday provided some relief to CEE currencies, after they
Market outlook The one percent increase in the EURHUF last week was mainly triggered by central bank messages that the inflation target (band) could still be met, despite the weak forint. As the fundamentals did not really worsen, much will
Market outlook The one percent increase in the EURHUF last week was mainly triggered by central bank messages that the inflation target (band) could still be met, despite the weak forint. As the fundamentals did not really worsen, much will
Still strong GDP growth in 1Q18 in CEE, despite euro area weakening Recent inflation uptick may fade later this year; core indices not yet of concern External trade surplus may continue to fade, MNB tested by markets in Hungary
Outlook At the end of last week, CEE currencies lost almost all of the gains recorded against the euro in the first half of the week. This may have been due to the market rumors that this Thursday should be
Outlook At the end of last week, CEE currencies lost almost all of the gains recorded against the euro in the first half of the week. This may have been due to the market rumors that this Thursday should be
Market outlook CEE currencies remained relatively resilient to the turmoil on the Italian bond market experienced in the first half of last week. While the YTD performance of CEE currencies has not been very impressive, we expect a better showing
