CEE Market Insights Determining the probable impact of the coronavirus on the economy is the main news topic at the moment. Over the weekend, Hungary announced the fiscal package and more details should be delivered at the beginning of the
CEE Market Insights This week in CEE Market sentiment data will be in focus this week – and the only question is by how much sentiment has worsened in March. Due to the dynamically changing situation, the February retail sales
CEE Market Insights This week, we will see the inflation rate in Croatia as well as labor market data. In Poland, retail sales and industrial growth in February will be published; however, the impact of the coronavirus is still likely
To mitigate its shrinking working age population, CEE has a hidden reserves in low female labor participation, low effective retirement age, as well as more active migration and family policies. There is no quick way to escape aging as the
Due to the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Europe, we will revise our CEE growth forecast downward by around 0.3pp toward 2.6%, with country-specific revisions going from around 0.3pp in the cases of Czechia, Hungary and Poland to as much
Special Report | CEE | Economy Inflation on rise in CEE, central banks get vigilant Inflation rates in CEE are currently among the highest in Europe. The series of upside surprises began in December 2019 and January repeated the pattern. Inflation
CEE Market Insights Economic data for January not hit by coronavirus, yet. Polish MPC to debate the rates. The week begins with release of Serbian 4QGDP and we expect to see the strongest performance since 2008. Further, industrial output and
CEE Bond Market Report CEE could face limited issuance this year. The fundamentals are generally fine, except for Romania, where the rating outlook is negative. High inflation does not warrant too much spread narrowing in CEE, except for Croatia and
CEE Market Insights This week in CEE Throughout the week, we will keep seeing inflation rate figures across CEE countries. In Hungary and Romania, we expect the headline number to land at 4.0% y/y in December, marking a visible increase
We wish all our readers Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2020. The next CEE Insights will be released on January 7. We now switch to holiday mood, as the macro release calendar will be pretty empty in the
November’s inflation rate will be published in most of the CEE countries and we expect it to rise everywhere. In Poland, an increase to 2.6% y/y should be confirmed, on the back of dynamic growth of food prices. The same
CEE Market Insights Serbia, Slovakia and Romania are the last three countries in the CEE world to release the 3Q19 GDP growth figure and its structure this week. With a complete picture on growth drivers across CEE, we will be
Throughout the year, CEE economies have been among the growth leaders in Europe. We expect them to remain so next year, despite external headwinds that are behind the slowdown. So far, strong domestic demand has been shielding the region from
This week, we should get confirmation that the strength of CEE economies lies in domestic demand. Consumer confidence is strong, as the unemployment rate hit historically low levels and wages keep growing. Such a situation translates into robust private consumption
This week is all about Thursday and flash GDP data releases for the third quarter in most CEE countries. Despite all the odds stemming from the worsening external environment and recent weakening of market sentiment, we expect the region to
It is going to be quite an eventful week, with four central bank decisions at the center of attention. After interest rate cut in the US and the Fed announcing a pause, we expect CEE central banks to remain on
Looking at the issuance performance so far this year, CEE countries have done a very good job. Several countries have already covered this year’s issuance plan and many others have also reached a high number. Slovakia seems to be lagging
Currencies fell last week in the region, but the stronger the yield declines of bond markets, the more robust the weakening in the currency that took place. We saw that regional markets reacted not much to international market developments (Saudi
Recently-published flash estimates of GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) depict a rather supportive picture of economic activity in the second quarter (Q2) (Exhibit 1). Undoubtedly, the quarterly growth clip decelerated somewhat, but remained laudable with Poland up
While markets are trying to digest what the ECB’s new measures may mean in the longer run, CEE will see first monthly indicators from the real economy from August, as Poland will release important figures that could provide important insight
Strong domestic demand shields CEE from German slowdown – for now Slowdown is expected for CEE, but growth difference vs. Euro Area could remain substantial Volatility to stay elevated on CEE FXFI markets
The US dollar’s strength did not do CEE currencies much good and while there were, in some cases, local factors behind the fall (especially in Hungary, where the HUF hit an all-time low), the decline in regional FX could mostly
Which weapon will be drawn next? The trade dispute continues to dominate financial market activity. Which weapon will be drawn next? Will China also raise tariffs in retaliation after the recent escalation by the US, or perhaps even block exports
The moment of truth could come this week, as 2Q19 GDP releases could indicate how much the German manufacturing slowdown plagued CEE growth. This could easily have implications for regional currencies and rates, too. Last week’s positive performance of the
CESKE DRAHY Earnings Developments The year 2018 has seen accelerating growth for CD. The ongoing transformation of CD into a modern, efficient, competitive and customer-focused railway mobility Group is supported by large investments and a strong Czech economy. Group revenues
Munis hit turbulence in a flight to safety -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/blackrock/munis-hit-turbulence-in-a-flight-to-safety/ #cash #coronavirus #FixedIncome #lending #municipalbond #COVID19 via
@blackrock
Emerging markets debt: Determinants of sovereign bond quality and returns -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/eaton-vance/emerging-markets-debt-determinants-of-sovereign-bond-quality-and-returns/ #credit #EmergingMarkets #debt #fiscalpolicy #sovereignbonds via
@EatonPartners
@EatonVance
Fixed Income Market Update -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/voya/fixed-income-market-update-4/ #fixedincome #highyield #EMD via #Voya
The corona shock in commodity prices -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/abn-amro/the-corona-shock-in-commodity-prices/ #Commodities #GOLD #oilprice #OPEC #coronavirus #COVID19 via
@ABNAMROeconomen
US Senate approved US fiscal package -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/04/hsbc/us-senate-approved-us-fiscal-package/ #fiscal #CoronaCrisis #COVIDー19 #inflation #Recession2020 via
@HSBC
