Back to homepage

Tag "Central Banks"

Recession looms for 2023

Recession looms for 2023

🕔08:24, 26.Jan 2023

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole.

Read Full Article
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔16:48, 24.Jan 2023

Market Perspective Volatility likely to remain elevated in the new year as central bank policy expectations diverge amid evidence of slowing growth and moderating inflation. While slowing the pace of tightening, the US Federal Reserve reinforced its commitment to taming

Read Full Article
The Year of the Bond

The Year of the Bond

🕔07:30, 18.Jan 2023

The year 2022 proved to be a year of a great reset for fixed income aficionados. Bond prices are sharply lower and yields are meaningfully higher. Following a nearly 15 year period of ultra-low interest rates that starved pensions and

Read Full Article
China reopens; developed economies slow down

China reopens; developed economies slow down

🕔16:12, 16.Jan 2023

Central banks have started to moderate the pace of tightening but we are not close to a pivot. Inflation remains too high and US labour market data continue to point towards a tight market. Central banks will keep rates at

Read Full Article
Global Strategy 1Q 2023

Global Strategy 1Q 2023

🕔16:40, 10.Jan 2023

High inflation and increased interest rates should lead to only weak GDP growth. Central banks have not yet completed the cycle of interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in financial markets for some time. We

Read Full Article
Implications Of An Inverted Yield Curve

Implications Of An Inverted Yield Curve

🕔16:30, 7.Dec 2022

With the Federal Reserve (Fed) continuing to hike interest rates, the probability of a sustained inversion in the yield curve is on the rise. Historically, an inverted yield curve, a common phenomenon late in an expansionary cycle, has been one

Read Full Article
Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

🕔12:28, 5.Dec 2022

Faced with the risk of persistently high inflation, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England increased their main policy rates substantially in 2022. Policymakers have signalled that more increases are coming. To calibrate the scale and

Read Full Article
Inflation and the correlation conundrum

Inflation and the correlation conundrum

🕔16:15, 1.Dec 2022

Why it’s time to look at liquid alternatives in a new light: The current market environment has not been kind to traditional multi-asset portfolios, with bonds providing little offset in an equity market brought down by rising interest rates. Central

Read Full Article
Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 25.Nov 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

Read Full Article
TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

🕔12:50, 10.Nov 2022

TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess

Read Full Article
Equity investing in an inflationary environment

Equity investing in an inflationary environment

🕔10:02, 28.Oct 2022

After a long hiatus, the resurgence of inflation has become a key concern for investors over the past year. Central banks are moving towards a tighter monetary stance as they seek to tame long-term inflation expectations. With falling real incomes

Read Full Article
The Federal Reserve will stay hawkish — what will that mean for markets?

The Federal Reserve will stay hawkish — what will that mean for markets?

🕔12:43, 27.Oct 2022

Stocks and bonds have pulled back since the Fed clarified its commitment to fighting inflation. Despite volatility, we believe equities will stay within a broad trading range and not retest earlier lows. Rising yields, particularly among spread assets, should make

Read Full Article
Quarterly Outlook Q4 2022

Quarterly Outlook Q4 2022

🕔14:11, 26.Oct 2022

There was no shortage of fear in the global bond markets in the third quarter. Central banks aggressively pushed short rates higher in response to the worst inflation of the last half …

Read Full Article
Cyclical Outlook: Prevailing Under Pressure

Cyclical Outlook: Prevailing Under Pressure

🕔09:10, 25.Oct 2022

Our baseline cyclical forecast includes shallow recessions and rising unemployment across large developed markets, with growth unlikely to bounce back quickly. Central bankers appear squarely focused on …

Read Full Article
Investing in volatile times

Investing in volatile times

🕔14:47, 24.Oct 2022

The investment lexicon is currently dominated by inflation and recession. But what could these terms – so readily used by investors and their advisors – actually …

Read Full Article
De obligatiemarkten en de moeilijke evenwichtsoefening van de beleidsmakers

De obligatiemarkten en de moeilijke evenwichtsoefening van de beleidsmakers

🕔20:32, 20.Oct 2022

Het risico op stagflatie maakt het leven van overheden en centrale banken veel moeilijker en het toegenomen risico op beleidsfouten zal de volatiliteit op de obligatiemarkten waarschijnlijk hoog houden. Maar er ontstaan ook beleggingskansen. Het VK ligt de laatste tijd

Read Full Article
Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

🕔12:50, 14.Oct 2022

Monthly investment outlook august 2022  Just as markets had to reprice a new interest rate regime in early-2022 amidst fading hopes for a transitory inflationary backdrop, they are now similarly beginning to recognise that the prospects of an economic soft

Read Full Article
Global Fixed Income Macro Outlook Twin peaks

Global Fixed Income Macro Outlook Twin peaks

🕔12:24, 13.Oct 2022

For all of 2022, we have focused on tighter monetary policy, discussing the dilemma faced by central banks (in ‘Czech Mate’) and their subsequent decision to prioritize the war on inflation (in ‘The Inflation Game’). As we peer into 2023,

Read Full Article
Central bank watcher: Work in progress

Central bank watcher: Work in progress

🕔09:01, 5.Oct 2022

It’s work in progress for central banks. But the meaning of this phrase differs depending on the bank in question. For the Fed it means taking policy rates another big step towards restrictive territory. The ECB seems to be edging

Read Full Article
Sticking with reduced risk taking

Sticking with reduced risk taking

🕔16:45, 26.Sep 2022

BII Global weekly commentary The new regime of macro volatility is playing out with weaker growth, persistent inflation and volatile markets. We stick with our dialed-down risk stance. U.S. stocks slumped and yields surged on a renewed rise in core

Read Full Article
Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

🕔12:55, 16.Sep 2022

2022 has been one of the most volatile periods in recent years for global equity and fixed income markets. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures, less accommodative central banks and COVID-19 restrictions

Read Full Article
Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

🕔09:20, 15.Sep 2022

ECB forced to tighten more agressively

Read Full Article
Central bank chiefs ready to slug it out over inflation

Central bank chiefs ready to slug it out over inflation

🕔15:01, 12.Sep 2022

Investors’ Outlook: The news flow ebbed over the summer but the headlines that did come through weren’t always positive. One small news item may have cheered us up, though: After 12 years under the European Union’s watchful eyes, Greece …

Read Full Article
Are We Entering a New Era of  Higher Inflation?

Are We Entering a New Era of Higher Inflation?

🕔12:32, 6.Sep 2022

An Analysis of the Risign Entrenchment of Inflationary Shocks

Read Full Article
No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

🕔16:04, 5.Sep 2022

Inflation’s Causes, Prospects, and the Fed’s Toolkit Inflation is a simple consequence of a supply/demand imbalance. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise until balance is restored. The current surge in inflation has been caused mainly by blowout spending, supply chain

Read Full Article
Fixed income markets: when short term pain can bring long term gains

Fixed income markets: when short term pain can bring long term gains

🕔08:01, 2.Sep 2022

2022 has not been a great time for bonds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index both hit historical lows, returning -13.9% and -9.1%, respectively, in the first 6 months of 20221 . Meanwhile, risky asset classes

Read Full Article
EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

🕔14:13, 30.Aug 2022

Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed

Read Full Article
Annual Economic Report 2022 of the BIS

Annual Economic Report 2022 of the BIS

🕔14:31, 23.Aug 2022

Introduction There is no respite for the global economy. Two years ago, it was shaken by the onset of the pandemic, as an overwhelming health crisis turned into an overwhelming economic crisis. While the after-tremors of the pandemic still reverberate,

Read Full Article
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔14:08, 22.Aug 2022

Market Themes Whatever It Takes 2.0 Keep On Smiling

Read Full Article
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:41, 3.Aug 2022

Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal

Read Full Article
Factorbeleggen aandelen

Factorbeleggen aandelen

🕔10:27, 3.Aug 2022

Wisselend beeld voor factoren in turbulent eerste kwartaal Aandelenmarkten startten het jaar met forse verliezen. Voornaamste redenen zijn het verkrappende monetaire beleid van de belangrijkste centrale banken om inflatie te bestrijden en de Russische invasie in Oekraïne. Value, momentum en

Read Full Article
Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

🕔08:55, 28.Jul 2022

Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a

Read Full Article
Play the desynchronization of the cycle

Play the desynchronization of the cycle

🕔16:34, 26.Jul 2022

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy: The current repricing is a reminder of a regime shift in which stagflationary concerns are becoming prominent. Investors should move towards quality segments in credit and equities, and aim to benefit from the regional divergences that

Read Full Article
ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

🕔10:36, 26.Jul 2022

So far in 2022, the European economy has held up remarkably well despite investor worries about a war-induced recession. But as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to hike interest rates at its 21 July meeting, the economy faces substantial

Read Full Article
Rates roller coaster

Rates roller coaster

🕔17:38, 12.Jul 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than

Read Full Article
Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

🕔15:50, 12.Jul 2022

Negative supply shocks and the hangover from large demand-side stimulus are keeping global inflation stubbornly high. Central banks, most notably the US Federal Reserve, are committed to reducing inflation by significantly tightening financial conditions. The extreme …

Read Full Article
Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

🕔08:00, 11.Jul 2022

It is no secret that 2022 has been challenging for fixed income investors. High inflation and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s initiation of interest rate hikes have weighed on markets. Nevertheless, the broad credit universe provides ample opportunities for investors

Read Full Article
An open letter to Mario Draghi

An open letter to Mario Draghi

🕔12:22, 5.Jul 2022

Dear Mr Draghi, After a busy couple of months leading a fractious Italian government through various crises, you must be looking forward to a well-deserved summer holiday. Before you and your team leave for the beach, the ECB is preparing

Read Full Article
The battle against inflation: are emerging markets ahead of the curve?

The battle against inflation: are emerging markets ahead of the curve?

🕔10:42, 1.Jul 2022

As Covid's impact fades, inflation has become a major worry for policymakers. Surprisingly, emerging market central banks are moving faster than their rich country peers to contain the threat. Developed economy central banks have fallen behind the inflationary curve, despite

Read Full Article
Monetair beleid en inflatie

Monetair beleid en inflatie

🕔13:41, 15.Jun 2022

Na een lange periode waarin inflatie (ruim) onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank lag, zijn de prijzen in Nederland en in het eurogebied de afgelopen maanden omhooggeschoten. Dit is deels een gevolg van de heropening van de economie

Read Full Article
Don’t fight the Fed

Don’t fight the Fed

🕔15:17, 13.Jun 2022

Restrictive central banks and high inflation rates are likely to continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Macro outlook – The US Federal Reserve stays its course High inflation rates are increasingly permeating global economies, and sharp increases in commodity

Read Full Article
Summary of Economic Projections

Summary of Economic Projections

🕔21:57, 3.Jun 2022

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year

Read Full Article
Bringing balance back to capitalism: the next decade

Bringing balance back to capitalism: the next decade

🕔10:12, 1.Jun 2022

Since the 1980s, the global economy has been fuelled by an asymmetric capitalism. Significant interventions by governments (fiscal policy) and central banks (rates and QE), particularly during the Covid pandemic over the last two years, have resulted in disparity of

Read Full Article
Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

🕔15:20, 31.May 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains

Read Full Article
Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments

Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments

🕔10:02, 31.May 2022

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) currently has no plans to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC), but to ensure the stability and efficiency of settlement systems as a whole, the BOJ regards it …

Read Full Article
Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

🕔10:38, 20.May 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Bond markets continued their 2022 slump while equity markets rebounded in March as both began to look beyond the Russia-Ukraine narrative and focus on the evolving global economic and policy backdrop. Expectations in both the US and

Read Full Article
Senior Loan Talking Points

Senior Loan Talking Points

🕔16:55, 12.May 2022

In an eventful week in which the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps, the loan market was not immune to the continued selling pressure and negative sentiment that has plagued performance in other assets for virtually the entirety of

Read Full Article
Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

🕔14:19, 12.May 2022

It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the

Read Full Article
War, inflation and hawkish policy pressure the financial markets

War, inflation and hawkish policy pressure the financial markets

🕔10:47, 5.May 2022

The world and markets continuously change, but over the first three months of 2022 there have been shocking shifts in the landscape and asset prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught many off-guard. Beyond the terrible hardships this war has already

Read Full Article
The Reckoning

The Reckoning

🕔13:10, 2.May 2022

Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the

Read Full Article

SEARCH