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Tag "Central Banks"

Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 14.Jan 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

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Monetary policy and the yield curve

Monetary policy and the yield curve

🕔08:45, 6.Jan 2022

Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in

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Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

🕔11:26, 4.Jan 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration

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Easing off the accelerator, nowhere near the brake

Easing off the accelerator, nowhere near the brake

🕔10:40, 29.Dec 2021

Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker

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Lagere versnelling, maar nog lang niet op de rem

Lagere versnelling, maar nog lang niet op de rem

🕔10:42, 27.Dec 2021

Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de

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Receding pressure on supply

Receding pressure on supply

🕔08:41, 27.Dec 2021

Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has

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Investing in the great transformation

Investing in the great transformation

🕔07:38, 22.Dec 2021

10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to

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Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

Q3 earnings season: results better than expected but doubts remain about next year

🕔12:41, 21.Dec 2021

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together

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2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

🕔16:25, 16.Dec 2021

From pandemic to endemic  IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases

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Central Banks Eye Digital Currencies

Central Banks Eye Digital Currencies

🕔09:50, 6.Dec 2021

Understanding CBDCs Digital currencies are increasingly in demand across the globe. Central banks have taken notice and are investigating the creation of their own Central Bank Digital Currencies. In this article, we explain what CBDCs are, why central banks are

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Investing in the great transformation

Investing in the great transformation

🕔13:38, 30.Nov 2021

2022 will mark a critical juncture on the road to a new economic and financial regime. Multiple coexisting transitions will drive the shift from the old to a new regime, that has already started in economic, social and geopolitical spheres,

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Walking the delicate path to normalisation

Walking the delicate path to normalisation

🕔14:19, 26.Nov 2021

European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in

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Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

🕔12:26, 23.Nov 2021

Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary

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Podcast: Are central banks at an inflection point?

Podcast: Are central banks at an inflection point?

🕔14:56, 19.Nov 2021

5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.

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More Predictably Unpredictable

More Predictably Unpredictable

🕔08:05, 20.Oct 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After a crackdown on internet technology and educational companies last month, risks continue to emerge out of China, including the potential fallout in its massive real estate sector following missed debt payments by

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Give us a good old villain to bring out the best in you

Give us a good old villain to bring out the best in you

🕔11:27, 16.Oct 2021

Investors’ Outlook October 2021 “Envelopes please… and the winner is… Wall Street.” This is the result of our recent allocation review that saw us overweight US stocks at the expense of European ones. The slight change doesn’t alter our overall

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Inflation, no time to die

Inflation, no time to die

🕔21:08, 13.Oct 2021

IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets

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Mounting risks, buying time

Mounting risks, buying time

🕔17:10, 11.Oct 2021

CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on

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Barometer: Geen goede tijd om te kopen?

Barometer: Geen goede tijd om te kopen?

🕔15:31, 11.Oct 2021

Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de

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Why we stay pro-risk

Why we stay pro-risk

🕔09:16, 4.Oct 2021

BII Global weekly commentary We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets – as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance

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Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

Climate change to bear upon banks’ financial performance

🕔15:06, 28.Sep 2021

A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely

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Pandemic Guerilla

Pandemic Guerilla

🕔12:40, 13.Sep 2021

In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

🕔12:42, 30.Aug 2021

Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is

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PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

🕔09:50, 30.Aug 2021

Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve

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Thriving in the bond market

Thriving in the bond market

🕔10:06, 9.Aug 2021

KEY TAKEAWAYS Markets can readily digest an orderly policy tightening. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is determined to cement the recovery and will avoid preemptively raising rates. Tapering of asset purchases will take place first but this will be gradual

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From growth euphoria to inflation blues

From growth euphoria to inflation blues

🕔16:01, 5.Aug 2021

Global Investment Views  The past weeks have confirmed that phase one of the ‘great recovery’ is now behind us. We have entered a new sequence: PMIs decelerating from their peaks and concerns about the spread of the Delta Covid19 variant

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Assessing Inflation: Theories, Policies and Portfolios

Assessing Inflation: Theories, Policies and Portfolios

🕔13:12, 5.Aug 2021

Executive Summary As inflation spiked in the second quarter of 2021, debate about its transitory or permanent nature became more heated. Yet, as is sometimes the case with broad controversies, a lack of definition goes with a lack of comprehension.

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021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

021 Invesco Global Sovereign Asset Management Study

🕔14:33, 4.Aug 2021

With Covid-19 top of mind, impacting both operations and investment strategies, the impact of the ongoing pandemic is the major theme running throughout. This includes an examination of adjustments made in response to the crisis and the impact on long-term

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How ESG Considerations are Reshaping Central Bank Mandates

How ESG Considerations are Reshaping Central Bank Mandates

🕔10:26, 4.Aug 2021

Moving toward integrating social and environmental issues. Building back greener, fairer, and more sustainable is not just the goal of governments and companies—central banks have also begun to incorporate issues such as employment equality and climate change into their policies. What

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Central Bank Digital Currencies May Bring “Helicopter Money” Closer

Central Bank Digital Currencies May Bring “Helicopter Money” Closer

🕔15:58, 3.Aug 2021

More efficient money transfers will likely bring down rates. Central bank digital currencies are the next big evolution of the current payment system. As well as addressing long‑standing issues with the fiat money system and boosting financial inclusion, CBDCs will

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Cryptocurrencies and ESG: a contradiction in terms?

Cryptocurrencies and ESG: a contradiction in terms?

🕔16:11, 28.Jul 2021

What kind of an asset is it? Its origins: how did decentralised finance give birth to blockchain database? How a number of ESG concerns are related to the way different cryptocurrencies have been structured and programmed to function? What's next

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Easy on the Austerity

Easy on the Austerity

🕔10:59, 26.Jul 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Following a shaky start to its vaccine rollout, Europe appears to be recovering as businesses are reopening and lockdowns continue to ease in some areas. As the European Central Bank debates the extension

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Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

🕔16:04, 7.Jul 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis. Different narratives are evolving at this

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Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

🕔11:58, 5.Jul 2021

Below is a brief recap of the views of Tim Ng and Tom Hollenberg, fixed income portfolio managers and members of Capital’s interest rates team, regarding the Fed’s announcement on 16th June. Fed officials projected two interest rate increases by

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Podcast: Corporate bonds: Resilience amid rising inflation (or read the article)

Podcast: Corporate bonds: Resilience amid rising inflation (or read the article)

🕔14:29, 22.Jun 2021

Market weekly: Thanks to central bank largesse, corporate bond markets weathered the depth of the Covid crisis well. Risks to credit markets today appear low with gradually improving fundamentals, neutral central bank policy and no major supply-demand imbalances. Listen to

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Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

🕔10:02, 12.May 2021

Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.

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Absolute Return is an Absolute Must

Absolute Return is an Absolute Must

🕔11:30, 5.May 2021

The coordinated central bank response to the COVID-19 crisis has pushed real yields in the developed world into firmly negative territory. While this policy action prevented a prolonged recession, it has left fixed-income investors grappling with an asset class where

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The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies

The rise of Central Bank Digital Currencies

🕔17:09, 30.Apr 2021

What are Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)? What is the impetus behind CBDCs when the ethos of crypto goes against the very role of central banks? How will CBDCs affect the widespread use of cryptocurrencies or the need for crypto

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The Bank of Japan – keeping a lid on volatility

The Bank of Japan – keeping a lid on volatility

🕔14:37, 6.Apr 2021

In its meeting last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced several changes in its monetary policy framework, but also confirmed its policy to keep yields under control. While other government bond markets have seen quite some volatility in the …

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Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues

🕔11:50, 16.Mar 2021

Distinguishing between short and long-term issues Weekly investment update Keeping a weekly column like this one going brings home the sense of immediacy that frequently grips financial markets and that can fuel short-term spikes or dips as we have seen

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Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

🕔12:48, 25.Feb 2021

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …

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The Next Leg of Recovery

The Next Leg of Recovery

🕔11:25, 17.Feb 2021

2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.

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What do the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures mean for inflation?

What do the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures mean for inflation?

🕔16:21, 9.Feb 2021

As the largest vaccination programme in history commences, risk markets appear to be ignoring the logistical challenges or near-term downside growth risks from tighter lockdowns imposed after infection rates in Northern Hemisphere countries soared over the winter. With the S&P at or close to all-time highs and many …

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Central banks in a pickle

Central banks in a pickle

🕔14:50, 2.Feb 2021

Central banks in a pickle Uncommon truths  We think tapering is off the agenda for 2021 and believe that central banks may purchase increasing amounts of assets. That may be good for risk assets this year but we worry where

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End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

🕔08:37, 29.Jan 2021

The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …

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The Great Pretender

The Great Pretender

🕔11:36, 28.Jan 2021

For many years nominal interest rates, largely from developed markets, served the dual purpose of providing stable income and diversification benefits in many multi asset portfolios.  Yet with yields on these assets testing the zero boundary, the allure to owning them looks increasingly tarnished. A small move in price can wipe out your income for the year.

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How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

How will Central Banks impact the equi ty markets in the post Covid world?

🕔12:53, 18.Dec 2020

Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against

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Global corporate bonds Q&A with Damir Bettini: a time for selectivity and stringent credit analysis

Global corporate bonds Q&A with Damir Bettini: a time for selectivity and stringent credit analysis

🕔11:04, 14.Dec 2020

Investment Insights   Key takeaways Global corporate bonds have recovered strongly since the peak of the sell-off experienced in March. With credit spreads having tightened considerably since then, I believe the rally was justified for technical reasons due to unprecedented levels

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Central Banks Are Not Out of Ammunition Yet

Central Banks Are Not Out of Ammunition Yet

🕔07:36, 4.Dec 2020

T. Rowe Price Insights from our Global Fixed Income Team How the prospect of further monetary easing could impact bond markets. Central banks are not done yet. With economic recoveries under threat, several developed market central banks, including the European

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Sustainable Investing: Past, Present and Future

Sustainable Investing: Past, Present and Future

🕔09:21, 3.Dec 2020

While historically most asset managers have separated their stewardship capabilities from their investment processes, we believe that this will no longer suffice. Engagements and proxy voting decisions should be made in consultation with investment decision makers as it is the

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