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Tag "Central Banks"

Shifting Sands: The Argument for a High-Inflation Regime

Shifting Sands: The Argument for a High-Inflation Regime

🕔11:45, 9.Jun 2023

The text opens a discussion around the expectation of financial markets for headline inflation rates to drop significantly towards central bank targets over the next couple of years, maintaining stable inflation expectations in the medium to long term. However, the

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Rising Inflation: An Underestimated Regime Change?

Rising Inflation: An Underestimated Regime Change?

🕔12:48, 5.Jun 2023

The text above explores the market's belief in the normalization of inflation rates in the medium to long term. Markets seem to be downplaying the possibility of a higher-inflation regime caused by structural fiscal policy loosening, a shift in workers'

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Navigating Asset Allocation amid Economic Uncertainty

Navigating Asset Allocation amid Economic Uncertainty

🕔08:21, 2.Jun 2023

The theme of the text pertains to current asset allocation decisions amidst a less optimistic economic outlook. The author maintains a preference for fixed income over equities, largely due to anticipated headwinds for corporate earnings and margins from higher interest

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The Turning Tide: Global Liquidity and Future Market Volatility

The Turning Tide: Global Liquidity and Future Market Volatility

🕔11:08, 30.May 2023

The article primarily discusses an impending shift in the global liquidity cycle and its potential implications for the economy. It mentions the recent liquidity crisis in the US banking sector and the consequent liquidity injections, as well as the Swiss

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April 2023 Equity Outlook: Navigating Uncertain Market Terrain

April 2023 Equity Outlook: Navigating Uncertain Market Terrain

🕔08:23, 30.May 2023

Uncertainty is the dominant theme in the equity market landscape of April 2023. Despite the anticipated end of the Federal Reserve's hiking cycle, the report underscores that this focus might miss the real picture. The Fed hikes are, in essence,

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Strategizing Global Asset Allocation Amid Uncertain Economic Conditions

Strategizing Global Asset Allocation Amid Uncertain Economic Conditions

🕔11:22, 29.May 2023

The text outlines a pragmatic approach to global asset allocation, given the prevailing economic conditions. It delves into the intricacies of economic forecasts influenced by central banks' tightening, potential banking crises, and geopolitical tensions. A slowdown in growth and continued

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The US Federal Reserve is caught between Scylla and Charybdis

The US Federal Reserve is caught between Scylla and Charybdis

🕔08:52, 26.May 2023

In this insightful piece by Aegon Asset Management, titled "Macro musings: The US Federal Reserve is caught between Scylla and Charybdis," the author discusses the Federal Reserve's precarious position in handling the trade-off between hiking interest rates to curb inflation

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Fixed Income in the ‘Next Normal’: Revisiting Core Bonds

Fixed Income in the ‘Next Normal’: Revisiting Core Bonds

🕔15:41, 24.May 2023

The piece provides an in-depth analysis of the shifting dynamics in the fixed income landscape. It highlights the dramatic shift from a low-yield environment, influenced by the predictable accommodative nature of central banks, to an era of higher expected inflation

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Managing Disruptions: Key Insights from Capital Market Assumption

Managing Disruptions: Key Insights from Capital Market Assumption

🕔08:25, 24.May 2023

Capital Market Assumptions March 2023 The text revolves around the exploration of asset allocation strategies against the backdrop of climate, social and geopolitical disruptions. The author highlights the consequences of the Ukraine conflict on the global energy supply and inflation,

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Navigating Recession: A Fundamental Approach to Capital Markets

Navigating Recession: A Fundamental Approach to Capital Markets

🕔14:31, 23.May 2023

The main theme of this text revolves around the anticipation of a potential recession, its implications for investors, and the heightened significance of focusing on fundamentals. The author discusses the list of concerns investors faced even before the Silicon Valley

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Fixed Income in the Post-COVID World: Reimagining Core Bonds

Fixed Income in the Post-COVID World: Reimagining Core Bonds

🕔10:26, 21.May 2023

What the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds That the ‘next normal’ means for fixed income: reimagining core bonds This article explores the “next normal” for fixed income investments in the post-COVID world. After a long period

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Bank of England’s Monetary Policy: Rate Hikes, Inflation, and Economic Impact”

Bank of England’s Monetary Policy: Rate Hikes, Inflation, and Economic Impact”

🕔16:16, 17.May 2023

"Bank of England: First to hike, last to pause and pivot" assesses the recent interest rate hike by the Bank of England and its subsequent challenges. The article highlights the UK's higher-than-expected inflation rate, attributing it to various factors like

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The Impact of Quantitative Tightening on Asset Class Returns: Q2 2023 Forecast

The Impact of Quantitative Tightening on Asset Class Returns: Q2 2023 Forecast

🕔13:19, 17.May 2023

The report "Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q2 2023" discusses the effects of rapid Quantitative Tightening (QT) by Developed Market (DM) central banks. It suggests that the impact is evident across price dynamics and financial stability. However, core measures of price

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Deciphering Central Banks’ Stance Amidst Stagflation in 2023

Deciphering Central Banks’ Stance Amidst Stagflation in 2023

🕔16:34, 16.May 2023

As we journey into 2023, the global macroeconomic landscape exhibits marked differences from prior years. A decade of easy monetary policy, enabled by low and stable inflation, gave way to 2022's unprecedented monetary tightening, as central banks raised interest rates

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Navigating Uncertainty: Central Banks, Financial Stability, and Price Stability

Navigating Uncertainty: Central Banks, Financial Stability, and Price Stability

🕔16:36, 15.May 2023

As the economic growth outlook brightens, investors are turning their attention to uncertainties in US and European financials, financial vulnerabilities, and persistent inflation. Central banks face a complex task in maintaining both financial stability and price stability. In response to

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March 2023: Unraveling Investment Trends amidst Global Uncertainty

March 2023: Unraveling Investment Trends amidst Global Uncertainty

🕔14:23, 15.May 2023

The month of March 2023 has been characterized by significant volatility in equities and bond markets, triggered by troubles in US and European banks, which have led to a resurgence of macroeconomic uncertainty. This situation has seen a temporary resurgence

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Investors Caught in a Holding Pattern Amid Uncertainty

Investors Caught in a Holding Pattern Amid Uncertainty

🕔15:34, 12.May 2023

Q2 2023 Global Market Outlook Full Report The text highlights the current economic landscape, characterized by resilient growth, slowly receding inflation, and continued monetary tightening by central banks. This creates a favorable environment for government bonds and uncertainty for equity

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Global Economic Update: Recession Risk and Inflation Concerns

Global Economic Update: Recession Risk and Inflation Concerns

🕔11:50, 12.May 2023

The recent banking crises in the US and Switzerland have sparked concerns about the stability of the global financial system. However, these crises are unlikely to pose a broader threat. Despite this, lending standards are anticipated to tighten and inflation

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ECB’s Greening Strategy and the Impact on Financial Markets

ECB’s Greening Strategy and the Impact on Financial Markets

🕔16:34, 9.May 2023

The main theme of the text is the greening of the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet as it integrates climate considerations into its monetary policy. Since October, the ECB has been redirecting corporate bond purchases towards issuers with better

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Navigating Policy Rates Amid Trade Recession and Inflation Pressures

Navigating Policy Rates Amid Trade Recession and Inflation Pressures

🕔16:55, 8.May 2023

The main theme of the text revolves around global trade recession, electric car pricing, German household savings, and German foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. The focus then shifts to policy rate decisions in the US and Eurozone amid inflation

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Bond Market Insights: Navigating Policy Tightening and Inflation Challenges

Bond Market Insights: Navigating Policy Tightening and Inflation Challenges

🕔12:22, 8.May 2023

The main theme of the text revolves around the recent banking crisis and the challenges faced due to policy tightening. The author highlights the Fed's response to regional bank failures, providing liquidity provisions to protect depositors and prevent widespread economic

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Unraveling the Global Economic Impact of Recent Banking Developments

Unraveling the Global Economic Impact of Recent Banking Developments

🕔08:32, 4.May 2023

In this short essay, we discuss the main theme of "A global assessment of the implications of recent banking sector developments." The text primarily focuses on the impact of recent banking sector developments on the global economy and central banks.

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Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

🕔08:07, 2.May 2023

The discussion in "Macro musings: The Fed, payrolls, and what to make of it all" revolves around the Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates, the effect on market pricing, and the potential scenarios that might prompt a change. While the

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CBDCs: Technical Benefits vs. Financial Stability Risks

CBDCs: Technical Benefits vs. Financial Stability Risks

🕔09:26, 26.Apr 2023

The main theme of AXA Investment Management's "What you know and what you must guess" is the exploration of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as a compromise between the technical benefits of cryptocurrencies and the mitigation of financial stability risks.

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Inflation Forecasts Grow Pessimistic

Inflation Forecasts Grow Pessimistic

🕔16:59, 18.Apr 2023

The latest data on inflation has led to concerns about the economy, with some fearing that hot inflation and economic data could lead to an increased chance of recession, even if it takes longer than first expected. The Federal Reserve

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A framework for navigating uncertainty: Inflation vs. financial stability

A framework for navigating uncertainty: Inflation vs. financial stability

🕔07:51, 14.Apr 2023

After spending over a decade trying to generate inflation, central banks are today confronted with the highest increases in prices since the 1970s. The return of inflation brings with it an unwelcome dilemma; combat inflation or prioritise financial stability. At

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Disinflation Derailed: Economic Recovery and Implications for Investors

Disinflation Derailed: Economic Recovery and Implications for Investors

🕔10:18, 13.Apr 2023

A few months ago, Edmond de Rothschild predicted a disinflation trend and a modest recession. The author initially observed signs of wage moderation in the US and a promising disinflation trajectory. However, recent data has revealed a recovery in western economies,

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Unraveling Inflation Persistence Amid ECB’s Profit Margin Focus

Unraveling Inflation Persistence Amid ECB’s Profit Margin Focus

🕔12:45, 6.Apr 2023

AXA Investment Managers' report, "The Pitfalls of the Inflation Blame Game," critically examines the European Central Bank's (ECB) emphasis on profit margins as the main factor driving persistent inflation. The report acknowledges the acceleration of core inflation in the Euro

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Spring Outlook: Global Economic Slowdown Amid Unresolved Crises

Spring Outlook: Global Economic Slowdown Amid Unresolved Crises

🕔14:22, 3.Apr 2023

In the research paper titled "Spring Economic Outlook," the author from Allianz discusses the impact of negative confidence effects from the near-death experience in the US banking sector and the unresolved energy situation in Europe on the global economy. The

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The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank: Lessons for the Investment Outlook

The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank: Lessons for the Investment Outlook

🕔12:39, 2.Apr 2023

The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised concerns about the investment outlook, highlighting three major problems. Firstly, the banks had a narrow depositor base with a large percentage of uninsured deposits, which was concentrated in troubled

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FOMC’s Economic Projections for 2023-2025

FOMC’s Economic Projections for 2023-2025

🕔10:07, 31.Mar 2023

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held in March 2023 included projections of the most likely outcomes for real GDP growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation. Each participant's projections were based on their assessment of appropriate monetary policy and

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Understanding the Implications of Vietnam’s Rate Cut

Understanding the Implications of Vietnam’s Rate Cut

🕔11:07, 30.Mar 2023

The State Bank of Vietnam recently cut its benchmark rate by 100 basis points, dropping from 4.5% to 3.5%. Catherine Reichlin examines the implications of this move in her Bond Moment report. Although Vietnam already had low rates compared to

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FOMC Hikes Rates Amid Banking Turmoil; Dovish Outlook Misinterpreted

FOMC Hikes Rates Amid Banking Turmoil; Dovish Outlook Misinterpreted

🕔14:45, 29.Mar 2023

Rate Hike and Banking Sector Stability. In a widely anticipated move, the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) increased rates by 25 basis points, despite recent upheaval in the banking sector. The FOMC stated that the US banking system is

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Portfolio Positioning: Underweight Equities and Bonds in Favor of Cash

Portfolio Positioning: Underweight Equities and Bonds in Favor of Cash

🕔10:53, 28.Mar 2023

Global growth remains resilient, but the tightening of central bank policies is expected to impact economic growth and earnings outlook in the latter half of the year. The US Federal Reserve and other central banks are hawkish due to services

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Private Equity Outlook in 2023: Anatomy of a Slowdown

Private Equity Outlook in 2023: Anatomy of a Slowdown

🕔17:02, 27.Mar 2023

The post-Covid rally in global private equity came to a halt in 2022, with the Federal Reserve's move to raise interest rates being a key factor. The rate increases sparked concerns about persistent inflation and fueled speculation about recession, causing

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Global Inflation Soars Amid Supply Chain Challenges

Global Inflation Soars Amid Supply Chain Challenges

🕔12:57, 27.Mar 2023

According to Lael Brainard, the Vice Chair of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, recent experience with the pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine has highlighted the challenges for monetary policy in responding to a series of

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Banking on a Sustainable Path: Global Banking Annual Review 2022

Banking on a Sustainable Path: Global Banking Annual Review 2022

🕔10:42, 27.Mar 2023

The year 2022 has been one of unpredictability and volatility for the global banking industry. The shocks to the system, including geopolitical instability and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, have resulted in a poor outlook for global banking

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Discover Bond Market Opportunities in 2023: Insights from Capital Group’s Fixed Income Team

Discover Bond Market Opportunities in 2023: Insights from Capital Group’s Fixed Income Team

🕔08:17, 25.Mar 2023

This is a summary of the “Quarterly macro and market insights” report from Capital Group’s fixed income team. The report indicates that the outlook for bonds remains positive despite concerns about global growth. The global economy is expected to weaken

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Market Skepticism and Banking Turmoil: Can Central Banks Handle the Heat Alone?

Market Skepticism and Banking Turmoil: Can Central Banks Handle the Heat Alone?

🕔15:35, 24.Mar 2023

Market reactions to the ongoing banking turmoil resulted in a significant downward revision of expectations for the policy rate of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The market expressed its skepticism regarding the central banks' ability

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Central banks will prioritise inflation over growth

Central banks will prioritise inflation over growth

🕔15:05, 23.Mar 2023

Inflationary pressures mean monetary policy must be tighter and more restrictive than it has been in the recent past. Higher for longer interest rates will be an important feature of a new regime in policy and market behaviour. The global

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Irish economy gradually recovers amidst inflation easing and uncertainty

Irish economy gradually recovers amidst inflation easing and uncertainty

🕔12:57, 23.Mar 2023

Central Bank of Ireland Quarterly Bulletin reveals gradual recovery of Irish economy amidst easing inflationary pressures and uncertainty over future path of inflation and public finances. According to the Quarterly Bulletin released by the Central Bank of Ireland, the country's

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Preparing for the Growth Shock: Bond Markets After the Rate Shock

Preparing for the Growth Shock: Bond Markets After the Rate Shock

🕔13:06, 22.Mar 2023

This report discusses how the tightening of monetary policy and inflation have affected fixed-income markets and business models, leading to tighter financial conditions that are likely to continue. The report also explores potential areas of strain for investors, such as

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Ten key themes for 2023 and beyond

Ten key themes for 2023 and beyond

🕔15:45, 20.Mar 2023

March 2023 2022 was certainly a tumultuous time for investors. The year was dominated by the Federal Reserve’s actions to fight inflation, particularly given the widespread perception earlier in the year that it was behind the curve. US Core inflation stood

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A View on ECB Meeting: March 2023

A View on ECB Meeting: March 2023

🕔15:24, 16.Mar 2023

As it has been clearly communicated by ECB policymakers in recent weeks, the central bank will hike by 50bp in its March meeting, taking its main refinancing rate to 3.5%. Moreover, President Lagarde will likely signal another large hike in

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Rising Interest Rates Hurt – Who Knew?

Rising Interest Rates Hurt – Who Knew?

🕔09:35, 15.Mar 2023

The US authorities took out the “big guns” and acted decisively before the market open to contain the spill over effect from the demise of SVB (now accompanied by Signature Bank) using a two-pronged approach. First, they will “make good”

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Stockholm Syndrome

Stockholm Syndrome

🕔08:06, 13.Mar 2023

The February inflation data vindicates the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks. We remain however concerned with the “financial channel”: the January batch for loans confirms the credit impulse in deeply negative. We look at Sweden and the UK as “canaries

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30 years of Gold Demand Trends

30 years of Gold Demand Trends

🕔11:48, 27.Feb 2023

A more diverse – and robust – market Over the past three decades the gold market has undergone extraordinary change. The structure and dynamics of demand and supply are vastly different from those of thirty years ago. Yet amid this

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Two in a Row?

Two in a Row?

🕔08:24, 27.Feb 2023

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After outpacing the rest of the world by more than 170% over the past nine years between 2013 and 2021, US equity markets notably lagged the rest of the world last year. Despite

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is the grass always greener on the other side?

is the grass always greener on the other side?

🕔16:36, 23.Feb 2023

Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation

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Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?

Does money growth help explain the recent inflation surge?

🕔08:19, 23.Feb 2023

BIS Bulletin 67 Key takeaways The strength of the link between money growth and inflation depends on the inflation regime: it is one-to-one when inflation is high and virtually non-existent when it is low. A link can also be seen

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