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Tag "Central Banks"

Sticking with reduced risk taking

Sticking with reduced risk taking

🕔16:45, 26.Sep 2022

BII Global weekly commentary The new regime of macro volatility is playing out with weaker growth, persistent inflation and volatile markets. We stick with our dialed-down risk stance. U.S. stocks slumped and yields surged on a renewed rise in core

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Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 23.Sep 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

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Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

🕔12:55, 16.Sep 2022

2022 has been one of the most volatile periods in recent years for global equity and fixed income markets. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures, less accommodative central banks and COVID-19 restrictions

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Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

🕔09:20, 15.Sep 2022

ECB forced to tighten more agressively

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Central bank chiefs ready to slug it out over inflation

Central bank chiefs ready to slug it out over inflation

🕔15:01, 12.Sep 2022

Investors’ Outlook: The news flow ebbed over the summer but the headlines that did come through weren’t always positive. One small news item may have cheered us up, though: After 12 years under the European Union’s watchful eyes, Greece …

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Are We Entering a New Era of  Higher Inflation?

Are We Entering a New Era of Higher Inflation?

🕔12:32, 6.Sep 2022

An Analysis of the Risign Entrenchment of Inflationary Shocks

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Equity investing in an inflationary environment

Equity investing in an inflationary environment

🕔10:02, 6.Sep 2022

After a long hiatus, the resurgence of inflation has become a key concern for investors over the past year. Central banks are moving towards a tighter monetary stance as they seek to tame long-term inflation expectations. With falling real incomes

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No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

🕔16:04, 5.Sep 2022

Inflation’s Causes, Prospects, and the Fed’s Toolkit Inflation is a simple consequence of a supply/demand imbalance. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise until balance is restored. The current surge in inflation has been caused mainly by blowout spending, supply chain

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Fixed income markets: when short term pain can bring long term gains

Fixed income markets: when short term pain can bring long term gains

🕔08:01, 2.Sep 2022

2022 has not been a great time for bonds. The Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index and Bloomberg US Treasury Index both hit historical lows, returning -13.9% and -9.1%, respectively, in the first 6 months of 20221 . Meanwhile, risky asset classes

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EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

EM local currency debt should be relatively resilient to potential Fed hikes

🕔14:13, 30.Aug 2022

Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed

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Annual Economic Report 2022 of the BIS

Annual Economic Report 2022 of the BIS

🕔14:31, 23.Aug 2022

Introduction There is no respite for the global economy. Two years ago, it was shaken by the onset of the pandemic, as an overwhelming health crisis turned into an overwhelming economic crisis. While the after-tremors of the pandemic still reverberate,

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔14:08, 22.Aug 2022

Market Themes Whatever It Takes 2.0 Keep On Smiling

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:41, 3.Aug 2022

Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal

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Factorbeleggen aandelen

Factorbeleggen aandelen

🕔10:27, 3.Aug 2022

Wisselend beeld voor factoren in turbulent eerste kwartaal Aandelenmarkten startten het jaar met forse verliezen. Voornaamste redenen zijn het verkrappende monetaire beleid van de belangrijkste centrale banken om inflatie te bestrijden en de Russische invasie in Oekraïne. Value, momentum en

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Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

Views in brief: Nowhere to hide

🕔08:55, 28.Jul 2022

Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a

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Play the desynchronization of the cycle

Play the desynchronization of the cycle

🕔16:34, 26.Jul 2022

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy: The current repricing is a reminder of a regime shift in which stagflationary concerns are becoming prominent. Investors should move towards quality segments in credit and equities, and aim to benefit from the regional divergences that

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ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

🕔10:36, 26.Jul 2022

So far in 2022, the European economy has held up remarkably well despite investor worries about a war-induced recession. But as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to hike interest rates at its 21 July meeting, the economy faces substantial

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Rates roller coaster

Rates roller coaster

🕔17:38, 12.Jul 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than

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Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

Defensively positioned for central bank shock therapy

🕔15:50, 12.Jul 2022

Negative supply shocks and the hangover from large demand-side stimulus are keeping global inflation stubbornly high. Central banks, most notably the US Federal Reserve, are committed to reducing inflation by significantly tightening financial conditions. The extreme …

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Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

Look to credit opportunities amid bond market rout

🕔08:00, 11.Jul 2022

It is no secret that 2022 has been challenging for fixed income investors. High inflation and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s initiation of interest rate hikes have weighed on markets. Nevertheless, the broad credit universe provides ample opportunities for investors

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An open letter to Mario Draghi

An open letter to Mario Draghi

🕔12:22, 5.Jul 2022

Dear Mr Draghi, After a busy couple of months leading a fractious Italian government through various crises, you must be looking forward to a well-deserved summer holiday. Before you and your team leave for the beach, the ECB is preparing

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The battle against inflation: are emerging markets ahead of the curve?

The battle against inflation: are emerging markets ahead of the curve?

🕔10:42, 1.Jul 2022

As Covid's impact fades, inflation has become a major worry for policymakers. Surprisingly, emerging market central banks are moving faster than their rich country peers to contain the threat. Developed economy central banks have fallen behind the inflationary curve, despite

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Monetair beleid en inflatie

Monetair beleid en inflatie

🕔13:41, 15.Jun 2022

Na een lange periode waarin inflatie (ruim) onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank lag, zijn de prijzen in Nederland en in het eurogebied de afgelopen maanden omhooggeschoten. Dit is deels een gevolg van de heropening van de economie

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Don’t fight the Fed

Don’t fight the Fed

🕔15:17, 13.Jun 2022

Restrictive central banks and high inflation rates are likely to continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Macro outlook – The US Federal Reserve stays its course High inflation rates are increasingly permeating global economies, and sharp increases in commodity

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Summary of Economic Projections

Summary of Economic Projections

🕔21:57, 3.Jun 2022

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year

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Bringing balance back to capitalism: the next decade

Bringing balance back to capitalism: the next decade

🕔10:12, 1.Jun 2022

Since the 1980s, the global economy has been fuelled by an asymmetric capitalism. Significant interventions by governments (fiscal policy) and central banks (rates and QE), particularly during the Covid pandemic over the last two years, have resulted in disparity of

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Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

🕔15:20, 31.May 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains

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Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments

Central Bank Digital Currency Experiments

🕔10:02, 31.May 2022

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) currently has no plans to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC), but to ensure the stability and efficiency of settlement systems as a whole, the BOJ regards it …

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Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

Looking beyond Russia – Ukraine

🕔10:38, 20.May 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Bond markets continued their 2022 slump while equity markets rebounded in March as both began to look beyond the Russia-Ukraine narrative and focus on the evolving global economic and policy backdrop. Expectations in both the US and

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Senior Loan Talking Points

Senior Loan Talking Points

🕔16:55, 12.May 2022

In an eventful week in which the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps, the loan market was not immune to the continued selling pressure and negative sentiment that has plagued performance in other assets for virtually the entirety of

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Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

Inflation, central banks and rising rates – Q&A with Andrew Cormack

🕔14:19, 12.May 2022

It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the

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War, inflation and hawkish policy pressure the financial markets

War, inflation and hawkish policy pressure the financial markets

🕔10:47, 5.May 2022

The world and markets continuously change, but over the first three months of 2022 there have been shocking shifts in the landscape and asset prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught many off-guard. Beyond the terrible hardships this war has already

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The Reckoning

The Reckoning

🕔13:10, 2.May 2022

Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the

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Winds of war blow on economic outlook

Winds of war blow on economic outlook

🕔14:45, 25.Apr 2022

Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in

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Winds of war blow on economic outlook

Winds of war blow on economic outlook

🕔08:27, 11.Apr 2022

Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in

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Ukraine war to cut growth, up inflation

Ukraine war to cut growth, up inflation

🕔19:50, 3.Apr 2022

BII Global weekly commentary We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week,

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Portfolio INSIGHTS Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2022

Portfolio INSIGHTS Global Asset Allocation Views 2Q 2022

🕔14:40, 28.Mar 2022

Global Asset Allocation Views In brief Tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine, and lingering inflation combine to put the brakes on global growth. We do not expect a global recession in 2022 but see European growth slowing to near

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Augmenting the Bernanke Doctrine

Augmenting the Bernanke Doctrine

🕔12:56, 28.Mar 2022

Ben Bernanke eloquently expressed the central banks dilemma when dealing with an exogenous price shock: “monetary policy cannot offset the recessionary or inflationary effects of increased oil prices at the same time”. It must choose. He also proposed a qualitative

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Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

Investors confront volatility as Russia invades Ukraine

🕔12:00, 21.Mar 2022

When market volatility spikes, investors question what, if anything, they should do. Markets reacted strongly to news that Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. The world has been watching tensions in the region escalate since the beginning of the year. Russia objects

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BII Global weekly commentary

BII Global weekly commentary

🕔11:56, 14.Mar 2022

BII Global weekly commentary We up our strategic overweight to developed market (DM) equities, but near term elevated geopolitical tensions keep our tactical shopping basket on hold. Equities retreated as investors took renewed fright over the military stand-off involving Ukraine,

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Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

🕔15:18, 10.Mar 2022

In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to

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Monex March 2022 FX Forecasts

Monex March 2022 FX Forecasts

🕔14:05, 9.Mar 2022

February will be remembered in the history books for its geopolitical events and the predicament they, along with global inflation pressures, placed central banks in. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shifting policy outlooks by G10 central banks was the

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Engelandvaarders, een uitstapje naar bedrijfsobligaties in Britse ponden voor extra rendement

Engelandvaarders, een uitstapje naar bedrijfsobligaties in Britse ponden voor extra rendement

🕔08:40, 23.Feb 2022

IN DEZE UPDATE Marktbeeld Spreads bedrijfsobligaties liepen met 11 basispunten op Inflatie mogelijk minder tijdelijk Black Friday: Omikron ECB: PEPP eindigt eind maart 2022 Outperformance van cyclische consumentenbedrijven, vastgoed negatieve uitzondering Semistaat en gedekte obligaties bewogen mee met swaps

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Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

🕔11:26, 11.Feb 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration

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COVID and Inflation Seen Driving Pace of Fed Tightening in 2022

COVID and Inflation Seen Driving Pace of Fed Tightening in 2022

🕔12:58, 2.Feb 2022

“The hawkish December FOMC minutes released in early January suggested rate hikes ‘sooner or at a faster pace’ than previously expected, while also raising forecasted inflation to 2.6% in 2022 — an increase over the 2.2% projected last September. There

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Market pullback corrections and transitions

Market pullback corrections and transitions

🕔14:40, 1.Feb 2022

Our outlook for 2022 was focused on the transitions the economy and markets were facing — including fading fiscal stimulus, reversal of monetary accommodation and a maturation of the COVID pandemic. Our constructive outlook on risk taking was, and remains,

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Monetary policy and the yield curve

Monetary policy and the yield curve

🕔08:45, 6.Jan 2022

Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in

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Easing off the accelerator, nowhere near the brake

Easing off the accelerator, nowhere near the brake

🕔10:40, 29.Dec 2021

Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker

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Lagere versnelling, maar nog lang niet op de rem

Lagere versnelling, maar nog lang niet op de rem

🕔10:42, 27.Dec 2021

Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de

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Receding pressure on supply

Receding pressure on supply

🕔08:41, 27.Dec 2021

Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has

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