Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has
10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together
From pandemic to endemic IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases
Understanding CBDCs Digital currencies are increasingly in demand across the globe. Central banks have taken notice and are investigating the creation of their own Central Bank Digital Currencies. In this article, we explain what CBDCs are, why central banks are
2022 will mark a critical juncture on the road to a new economic and financial regime. Multiple coexisting transitions will drive the shift from the old to a new regime, that has already started in economic, social and geopolitical spheres,
European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in
Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary
5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After a crackdown on internet technology and educational companies last month, risks continue to emerge out of China, including the potential fallout in its massive real estate sector following missed debt payments by
Investors’ Outlook October 2021 “Envelopes please… and the winner is… Wall Street.” This is the result of our recent allocation review that saw us overweight US stocks at the expense of European ones. The slight change doesn’t alter our overall
IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets
CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on
Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de
BII Global weekly commentary We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets – as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance
A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely
In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data
Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is
Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve
KEY TAKEAWAYS Markets can readily digest an orderly policy tightening. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is determined to cement the recovery and will avoid preemptively raising rates. Tapering of asset purchases will take place first but this will be gradual
Global Investment Views The past weeks have confirmed that phase one of the ‘great recovery’ is now behind us. We have entered a new sequence: PMIs decelerating from their peaks and concerns about the spread of the Delta Covid19 variant
Executive Summary As inflation spiked in the second quarter of 2021, debate about its transitory or permanent nature became more heated. Yet, as is sometimes the case with broad controversies, a lack of definition goes with a lack of comprehension.
With Covid-19 top of mind, impacting both operations and investment strategies, the impact of the ongoing pandemic is the major theme running throughout. This includes an examination of adjustments made in response to the crisis and the impact on long-term
Moving toward integrating social and environmental issues. Building back greener, fairer, and more sustainable is not just the goal of governments and companies—central banks have also begun to incorporate issues such as employment equality and climate change into their policies. What
More efficient money transfers will likely bring down rates. Central bank digital currencies are the next big evolution of the current payment system. As well as addressing long‑standing issues with the fiat money system and boosting financial inclusion, CBDCs will
What kind of an asset is it? Its origins: how did decentralised finance give birth to blockchain database? How a number of ESG concerns are related to the way different cryptocurrencies have been structured and programmed to function? What's next
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Following a shaky start to its vaccine rollout, Europe appears to be recovering as businesses are reopening and lockdowns continue to ease in some areas. As the European Central Bank debates the extension
The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis. Different narratives are evolving at this
Below is a brief recap of the views of Tim Ng and Tom Hollenberg, fixed income portfolio managers and members of Capital’s interest rates team, regarding the Fed’s announcement on 16th June. Fed officials projected two interest rate increases by
Market weekly: Thanks to central bank largesse, corporate bond markets weathered the depth of the Covid crisis well. Risks to credit markets today appear low with gradually improving fundamentals, neutral central bank policy and no major supply-demand imbalances. Listen to
Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.
The coordinated central bank response to the COVID-19 crisis has pushed real yields in the developed world into firmly negative territory. While this policy action prevented a prolonged recession, it has left fixed-income investors grappling with an asset class where
What are Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)? What is the impetus behind CBDCs when the ethos of crypto goes against the very role of central banks? How will CBDCs affect the widespread use of cryptocurrencies or the need for crypto
In its meeting last week, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced several changes in its monetary policy framework, but also confirmed its policy to keep yields under control. While other government bond markets have seen quite some volatility in the …
Distinguishing between short and long-term issues Weekly investment update Keeping a weekly column like this one going brings home the sense of immediacy that frequently grips financial markets and that can fuel short-term spikes or dips as we have seen
This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
As the largest vaccination programme in history commences, risk markets appear to be ignoring the logistical challenges or near-term downside growth risks from tighter lockdowns imposed after infection rates in Northern Hemisphere countries soared over the winter. With the S&P at or close to all-time highs and many …
Central banks in a pickle Uncommon truths We think tapering is off the agenda for 2021 and believe that central banks may purchase increasing amounts of assets. That may be good for risk assets this year but we worry where
The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …
For many years nominal interest rates, largely from developed markets, served the dual purpose of providing stable income and diversification benefits in many multi asset portfolios. Yet with yields on these assets testing the zero boundary, the allure to owning them looks increasingly tarnished. A small move in price can wipe out your income for the year.
Interest rates are at an all-time low, and even if inflation eventually picks up, it could take some time. Central banks, the first pillar of the investment cycle, are adjusting and are resolutely accompanying governments in this final battle against
Investment Insights Key takeaways Global corporate bonds have recovered strongly since the peak of the sell-off experienced in March. With credit spreads having tightened considerably since then, I believe the rally was justified for technical reasons due to unprecedented levels
T. Rowe Price Insights from our Global Fixed Income Team How the prospect of further monetary easing could impact bond markets. Central banks are not done yet. With economic recoveries under threat, several developed market central banks, including the European
While historically most asset managers have separated their stewardship capabilities from their investment processes, we believe that this will no longer suffice. Engagements and proxy voting decisions should be made in consultation with investment decision makers as it is the
