With 2 ½ months left until Mario Draghi steps down as ECB chief, what will be his legacy? On the one hand, he will be forever remembered for those three words “whatever it takes”, which many people credit for having
Central bank watcher: Time to deliver Fed: make life easy and do 50 ECB: A september to remember PBOC: Easing bij reform?
The recent escalation in U.S.-China tensions reinforces our view that trade and geopolitical frictions have become the key driver of the global economy and markets. We stress the importance of portfolio resilience in this environment, yet view the decisively dovish
U.S. Treasury yields declined again last week, with the yield difference between the 3-month T-bill and the 10-year Treasury note inverted further. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut at the September meeting are high. However, the magnitude
Fed cuts rates A lack of inflation pressure allows the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to lean against the increased downside risks to growth. While market pricing may prove to be too aggressive, some “insurance” policy easing is very likely The
As Federal Reserve officials have been signaling in recent weeks, the Fed cut its target Fed funds rate by 25 bps to a target range of 2.0%-2.25% at the policy meeting that ended on July 31, marking its first interest
Sometimes monetary policy is akin to feeding dragons: markets tend to be insatiable, and they may end up burning you. Indeed, there seems to be no end to what the market wants from central banks. We have seen it in
The Federal Reserve reduces interest rates At its July meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cut the target range for the fed funds rate to 2.00-2.25%, in line with market expectations. Two FOMC
A widening gap between valuation and economic/corporate fundamentals Central banks seems to be very concerned about the slowdown in the economic cycle sparked by trade tensions. As a consequence, they have been intensifying their communications about their willingness to act.
A surprise tariff announcement by the U.S. met with an unexpected depreciation in the Chinese currency, sending shock waves across global markets last week. This latest escalation in U.S.-China tensions reinforces our view that trade and geopolitical frictions have become
ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5 / 2019 Incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting in early June indicates that, while further employment gains and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the economy, softening global growth dynamics and
Hoewel de zomermaand juli als vakantiemaand bestempeld wordt, blijken beleggers het lezen niet te kunnen laten. Zo werd er weer volop gezocht op het research platform van OpinioPro en werd er naast veel gelezen ook lang gelezen. Zo zijn er
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight the investment themes that they think will drive markets and dominate debate within the investment community over the next several months and beyond. Over recent weeks, we have been vocal about five “big themes”
For now, the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is unlikely to ease. Markets are understandably nervous. Last week, the U.S. President once again shocked the markets by announcing that all imports from China will be subject to punitive
Weekly Commentary Key points 1 We see the dovish pivot by global central banks supporting the economic expansion and risk assets, with rising protectionism the key risk.b 2 We see a wider range of Brexit outcomes—including no-deal, a snap election
Investment Insights | Market Stories Macro themes We see 4 key themes underpinning the case for a constructive view on EM: (1) the most important is the Fed acting preventively to prolong the cycle and the impact on the USD;
Macro Economic Update Global growth currently hovers around 2.5% with confidence indicators still pointing to modest growth at best. Manufacturing continues to suffer with new orders contracting at the fastest pace in almost seven years. Confidence in the service sector,
We see the dovish pivot by global central banks supporting the economic expansion and risk assets, with rising protectionism the key risk. Elga explains. The Fed confirmed global central banks’ dovish pivot last week, as it cut rates for the
The Fed and the ECB have managed to firmly establish lower interest rates while pushing risk assets higher. Investors are sceptical amid high political and economic uncertainty but, at least for the time being, the central bank actions have helped
Beyond Bulls & Bears The US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark short‑term interest rate for the first time in 11 years in what Chairman Jerome Powell called a “mid‑cycle adjustment” to sustain the US economic expansion. Powell appeared to struggle
IN BRIEF The potential for unilateral US intervention in the currency markets to weaken the US dollar is increasing as the US administration becomes more frustrated with the dollar’s persistent strength. Discussions over intervention could intensify if expected US interest
As expected, the US Fed's interest rate decision-making body (FOMC) lowered the range of its key interest rate by 25 basis points to between 2% and 2.25%. The assessment of the economy has not changed significantly. The labor market and
After an exceptionally strong start to the year, financial markets paused for breath in July, with most asset classes delivering muted returns. The Federal Reserve (the Fed) lowered US interest rates for the first time in 11 years, and the
Aerial View Magazine Conventional wisdom, supported by nearly a century of economic history, indicates that independent control over monetary policy—insulated from the direct interference and control of political leaders—delivers better economic outcomes. Recently, however, that independence has been threatened, as
Global Perspectives The global economy has now entered the longest expansionary phase on record and yet we believe that there is still further to go. A recession is inevitable at some point; however, the current market conditions do not suggest
