Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
Historically, emerging market (EM) local currency debt has tended to weaken with rising US interest rates, but our research shows that much of this has generally occurred before Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes have taken place. As the Fed
Na een lange periode waarin inflatie (ruim) onder de doelstelling van de Europese Centrale Bank lag, zijn de prijzen in Nederland en in het eurogebied de afgelopen maanden omhooggeschoten. Dit is deels een gevolg van de heropening van de economie
Restrictive central banks and high inflation rates are likely to continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Macro outlook – The US Federal Reserve stays its course High inflation rates are increasingly permeating global economies, and sharp increases in commodity
In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 14–15, 2022, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year
Since the 1980s, the global economy has been fuelled by an asymmetric capitalism. Significant interventions by governments (fiscal policy) and central banks (rates and QE), particularly during the Covid pandemic over the last two years, have resulted in disparity of
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) currently has no plans to issue central bank digital currency (CBDC), but to ensure the stability and efficiency of settlement systems as a whole, the BOJ regards it …
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Bond markets continued their 2022 slump while equity markets rebounded in March as both began to look beyond the Russia-Ukraine narrative and focus on the evolving global economic and policy backdrop. Expectations in both the US and
In an eventful week in which the Fed raised interest rates by 50 bps, the loan market was not immune to the continued selling pressure and negative sentiment that has plagued performance in other assets for virtually the entirety of
It feels as though US policy makers have spent the entire post-global financial crisis period trying to generate inflation. Now that it’s here, it seems like the wrong kind of inflation. How do you see inflation playing out in the
The world and markets continuously change, but over the first three months of 2022 there have been shocking shifts in the landscape and asset prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught many off-guard. Beyond the terrible hardships this war has already
Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the
Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in
Ukraine: where do we stand? The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war – in
BII Global weekly commentary We see the Ukraine war reducing global growth, increasing inflation and putting central banks in a bind. We prefer developed stocks in the inflationary backdrop Stocks led by European equities bounced from 2022 lows last week,
Global Asset Allocation Views In brief Tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine, and lingering inflation combine to put the brakes on global growth. We do not expect a global recession in 2022 but see European growth slowing to near
Ben Bernanke eloquently expressed the central banks dilemma when dealing with an exogenous price shock: “monetary policy cannot offset the recessionary or inflationary effects of increased oil prices at the same time”. It must choose. He also proposed a qualitative
When market volatility spikes, investors question what, if anything, they should do. Markets reacted strongly to news that Russia invaded neighboring Ukraine. The world has been watching tensions in the region escalate since the beginning of the year. Russia objects
BII Global weekly commentary We up our strategic overweight to developed market (DM) equities, but near term elevated geopolitical tensions keep our tactical shopping basket on hold. Equities retreated as investors took renewed fright over the military stand-off involving Ukraine,
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
February will be remembered in the history books for its geopolitical events and the predicament they, along with global inflation pressures, placed central banks in. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shifting policy outlooks by G10 central banks was the
IN DEZE UPDATE Marktbeeld Spreads bedrijfsobligaties liepen met 11 basispunten op Inflatie mogelijk minder tijdelijk Black Friday: Omikron ECB: PEPP eindigt eind maart 2022 Outperformance van cyclische consumentenbedrijven, vastgoed negatieve uitzondering Semistaat en gedekte obligaties bewogen mee met swaps
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
“The hawkish December FOMC minutes released in early January suggested rate hikes ‘sooner or at a faster pace’ than previously expected, while also raising forecasted inflation to 2.6% in 2022 — an increase over the 2.2% projected last September. There
Our outlook for 2022 was focused on the transitions the economy and markets were facing — including fading fiscal stimulus, reversal of monetary accommodation and a maturation of the COVID pandemic. Our constructive outlook on risk taking was, and remains,
Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has
10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together
From pandemic to endemic IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases
Understanding CBDCs Digital currencies are increasingly in demand across the globe. Central banks have taken notice and are investigating the creation of their own Central Bank Digital Currencies. In this article, we explain what CBDCs are, why central banks are
2022 will mark a critical juncture on the road to a new economic and financial regime. Multiple coexisting transitions will drive the shift from the old to a new regime, that has already started in economic, social and geopolitical spheres,
European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in
Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary
5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After a crackdown on internet technology and educational companies last month, risks continue to emerge out of China, including the potential fallout in its massive real estate sector following missed debt payments by
Investors’ Outlook October 2021 “Envelopes please… and the winner is… Wall Street.” This is the result of our recent allocation review that saw us overweight US stocks at the expense of European ones. The slight change doesn’t alter our overall
IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets
CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on
Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de
BII Global weekly commentary We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets – as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance
A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely
In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data
Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is
Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve
KEY TAKEAWAYS Markets can readily digest an orderly policy tightening. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is determined to cement the recovery and will avoid preemptively raising rates. Tapering of asset purchases will take place first but this will be gradual
Global Investment Views The past weeks have confirmed that phase one of the ‘great recovery’ is now behind us. We have entered a new sequence: PMIs decelerating from their peaks and concerns about the spread of the Delta Covid19 variant
