CIO View, Chart of the Week As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were
PRIVATE CREDIT Amid negative yields, opportunities to generate alpha above comparable public debt Our managers’ outlook unfolds against an unusual backdrop: a remarkable rate environment, in which the number of negative-yielding debt instruments is on the rise, with a powerful
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Why the global economy—and markets—still have room to run Although some of the risks that have weighed on the global economy may be starting to fade, it is too soon to sound the all-clear. We anticipate that 2020
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in
A little over a decade has passed since the 2008 global financial crisis, and central banks continue to apply unconventional monetary policy tools in their effort to maintain economic stability amid slowing growth. Quantitative easing (QE) alongside a now all-too-common
Guide to the Markets MARKET INSIGHTS Europe 1Q 2020 As of 31 December 2019
Global economy – recovery should take hold in the first half of 2020 The preconditions for a recovery of the global economy in 2020 have significantly improved due to the following factors: – economic policy uncertainty has decreased; – the
Eurozone output remains positive, but sluggish, with Consensus forecasts of 1.1% for 2019. National data showed that Q3 2019 GDP growth remained stable in Italy (0.1%), Spain (0.4%) and France (0.3%). However, the slump affecting the export-oriented manufacturing sector, most
After an astounding 2019, what’s in store for 2020? Russ discusses. We will miss 2019. While 2018’s odd confluence of a weakening economy, rising trade frictions and monetary tightening led to losses in virtually every asset class, this year has
Mike explains why we favor inflation-linked bonds in both tactical and strategic portfolios. We view inflation risks as underappreciated for 2020 – and beyond. Our base case is for modestly higher U.S. inflation this year, with a risk of upside
Ghosts of Christmas Past After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear. We don’t expect a global or US recession, and anticipate
Fed, ECB, PBoC and the Boj
The 20th anniversary of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) offers an opportunity to look back on the ECB’s record and learn lessons that can improve the conduct of policy in the future. This paper charts the way the ECB has
The latest US tightening cycle was more aggressive than most investors realise. Should avoiding recession be seen as a win? How aggressive was the Federal Reserve’s most recent hiking cycle? Take the end rate minus the beginning rate, and the
Recession alarms have yet to fully go off, but stagnation warning signs are coming to the forefront on the back of heightened financial instrument risks, potentially affecting the economic health of advanced and emerging markets alike. The many intertwined moving
As expected, the FOMC, the Federal Reserve's (FOMC's) interest rate decision-making body, left the range for the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the meeting that ended yesterday. The current monetary policy was described as appropriate to support continued
As expected, the Governing Council did not make any changes at today's meeting. Interest rates and guidance for monetary policy were confirmed. The duration of the low-interest phase and of the purchases of securities was left open. A first interest
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their
ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of
We expect little movement in bond yields. It's again in corporates and emerging markets that we look for potential returns. We expect neither the Fed nor the ECB to cut or raise rates in 2020. Euro corporate bonds and emerging-market
Positive returns across asset classes in 2019 may limit tax loss selling in closed-end funds, but we see potential long term value in select sectors where investors can still buy assets at a discount. 2019 has been a strong year
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls. In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been
No sooner had Mario Draghi finished his press conference in September that the deep divisions within the ECB governing council were laid bare. In an unprecedented action, the heads of the Austrian, German, French and Dutch central banks publicly criticized
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that – in contrast to the past decade of monetary policy lifting all economic boats at once – the years ahead are likely to be characterized by great dispersion between economies, industries and markets.
ECB QE2 started off on a strong foot, according to data released on Monday regarding the very first week of purchases. The overall increase in holdings of the four QE programmes was quite high for just one week relative to
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
