Investing in China: Silk (Road) Purse or Sow’s Ear?

Investing in China: Silk (Road) Purse or Sow’s Ear?

🕔17:38, 16.aug 2019

TIFF Insights An Interview with Scott Malpass and Jay Willoughby Introduction In the recent past, American investors’ views on China have rotated from unblemished enthusiasm to substantial caution. From the radical reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 until quite recently,

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On recent market volatility

On recent market volatility

🕔17:34, 16.aug 2019

Financial market volatility has risen in August. This has come amid the ongoing US-China trade conflict (along with other geopolitical risks), and some weak economic data releases. Risk assets such as equities have sold off, while safe-haven assets have rallied

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The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

🕔09:26, 16.aug 2019

China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibas­am.com/the­fuss­aboutchinas­current­account­deficit­and­global­cost­of­capital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,

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3Q 2019 Investment Outlook

3Q 2019 Investment Outlook

🕔10:08, 14.aug 2019

At the beginning of the second quarter, market sentiments were positive amid China and U.S. were en route to reach a trade agreement, U.S. central bank stopped raising interest rates and planned to end balance sheet reduction in the year,

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US-China trade tensions escalate

US-China trade tensions escalate

🕔19:51, 13.aug 2019

On Thursday 1 August, US President Trump unexpectedly announced a plan to move forward with an additional 10% tariff on USD300bn worth of imported Chinese goods. The move is in addition to the USD250bn of Chinese products already subject to

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Hedging US-China Trade Risk with Bitcoin

Hedging US-China Trade Risk with Bitcoin

🕔15:33, 13.aug 2019

Financial crises are becoming more common and global. The below chart from Goldman Sachs identifies a long list of large drawdowns across US, European, and Asian equity markets over the last sixty years, showing just how devastating their effects can

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Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

Is this tariff different? Weighing the effect of trade escalation on recession risk

🕔14:28, 13.aug 2019

The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on

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US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

US-China trade war: walking a tightrope

🕔13:04, 13.aug 2019

Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in

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Charting China Monthly Review

Charting China Monthly Review

🕔12:08, 13.aug 2019

What happened in the past month? High frequency data points to retreat in both IP and retail sales growth in July. Property and land markets soften. July IPP coal consumption growth declined to -16% YoY from -10% YoY in June.

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On the escalation path

On the escalation path

🕔18:50, 7.aug 2019

For now, the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is unlikely to ease. Markets are understandably nervous.  Last week, the U.S. President once again shocked the markets by announcing that all imports from China will be subject to punitive

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IP and retail sales growth may have fallen; property & land market softens

IP and retail sales growth may have fallen; property & land market softens

🕔16:41, 7.aug 2019

Charting China Monthly Review What happened in the past month? High frequency data points to retreat in both IP and retail sales growth in July. Property and land markets soften. July IPP coal consumption growth declined to -16% YoY from

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Our 12-Month Economic & Market Outlook

Our 12-Month Economic & Market Outlook

🕔16:09, 31.jul 2019

From a trade dispute to a trade war. And back? The U.S.-China dispute weighs on our strategic outlook, even though its initial economic impact is small.  In April, the market hoped for a resolution. Instead, the U.S.-Chinese trade dispute has

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US, China firm, Europe feeble

US, China firm, Europe feeble

🕔15:03, 24.jul 2019

Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second

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China’s GDP growth receded to 6.2% yoy in Q2

China’s GDP growth receded to 6.2% yoy in Q2

🕔16:44, 18.jul 2019

GIAM Macro & Market Research – Market Commentary As published this morning, China’s GDP growth receded to 6.2% yoy in the second quarter. This number was widely expected by market forecasts (Reuters, Bloomberg) and thus no surprise. However, it marked

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China’s bond market opens up to foreign investors

China’s bond market opens up to foreign investors

🕔13:25, 18.jul 2019

China’s large bond market is poised for rapid growth as the country opens its doors more widely to foreign investors. With the ongoing search for yield, the opening of a deep and liquid bond market offering positive real yields looks

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The Threat of Split Supply Chains

The Threat of Split Supply Chains

🕔16:02, 17.jul 2019

Capital Market Line Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes An important issue loomed at the core of last quarter’s exceptional chaos. Just as global manufacturing appeared to be bottoming, China emulated Trump and walked away

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The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

The Secular Lens: Assessing the Global Outlook and Potential Disruptions

🕔11:38, 17.jul 2019

Executive Summary Over the secular (three- to five-year) horizon, growth in China will likely slow somewhat, and we expect some form of resolution of the current U.S.– China trade conflict. Longer-term, though, tensions will remain, as the two nations compete

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US economic data underlines case for rate cut, China recovery not yet on solid footing

US economic data underlines case for rate cut, China recovery not yet on solid footing

🕔10:34, 16.jul 2019

Last week was an important one for US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave testimony to Congress where he effectively endorsed market expectations for an easing in monetary policy in July. We adjusted our view to now expect

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Is China’s new payment system the future?

Is China’s new payment system the future?

🕔16:41, 5.jul 2019

While America spent the past decade upgrading its bank based magnetic striped cards with chips, China experienced a retail payment revolution. Leapfrogging the card-based system, two new payment systems have come to dominate person-to-person, retail, and many business transactions. China’s

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Americas CIO View

Americas CIO View

🕔15:02, 4.jul 2019

Post G20: Existing tariffs stay in effect, lower S&P 500 EPS outlook No agreement or timeline to cut 25% tariffs on half the imports from China The post G20 summit between President Xi and President Trump produced many pictures and

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Alpha Research – Kennislunch Actief of passief naar een grotere exposure in China?

🕔11:30, 4.jul 2019

Kijken we tien jaar vooruit, dan is de grootste groei te verwachten in het oosten. Vooral China wordt een factor van betekenis, nog belangrijker dan het land nu al is. Voor indexbouwer MSCI is deze ontwikkeling aanleiding om de weging van Chinese A-aandelen

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔07:00, 4.jul 2019

Weekly Economic Commentary I know this will sound un-American, especially around Independence Day. But I have enjoyed following the Cricket World Cup. Think baseball, but with only two bases, no foul territory and no seventh-inning stretch. (There are, however, drink

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CIO VIEW

CIO VIEW

🕔14:02, 2.jul 2019

G20 meeting ended with little progress. But postponed tariff hikes are not canceled ones.   The G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, ended on Saturday as expected: inconsequential, with a non-binding final declaration. More important were the talks on the fringes of

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Global weekly commentary

Global weekly commentary

🕔14:02, 2.jul 2019

Global weekly commentary Key points 1. Oil and related securities have lagged despite a spike in Gulf tensions. We see selected opportunities, but expect oil to be range-bound. 2 Global stocks edged lower ahead of a key meeting between U.S.

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China – manufacturing PMI data should stabilize

China – manufacturing PMI data should stabilize

🕔04:02, 29.jun 2019

Week Ahead Next week (July 1), China's manufacturing PMI data for June will be published. Following the intensification of the trade conflict between the US and China, manufacturing sentiment fell slightly in April and May and industrial production growth dropped

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