TIFF Insights An Interview with Scott Malpass and Jay Willoughby Introduction In the recent past, American investors’ views on China have rotated from unblemished enthusiasm to substantial caution. From the radical reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 until quite recently,
Financial market volatility has risen in August. This has come amid the ongoing US-China trade conflict (along with other geopolitical risks), and some weak economic data releases. Risk assets such as equities have sold off, while safe-haven assets have rallied
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
At the beginning of the second quarter, market sentiments were positive amid China and U.S. were en route to reach a trade agreement, U.S. central bank stopped raising interest rates and planned to end balance sheet reduction in the year,
On Thursday 1 August, US President Trump unexpectedly announced a plan to move forward with an additional 10% tariff on USD300bn worth of imported Chinese goods. The move is in addition to the USD250bn of Chinese products already subject to
Financial crises are becoming more common and global. The below chart from Goldman Sachs identifies a long list of large drawdowns across US, European, and Asian equity markets over the last sixty years, showing just how devastating their effects can
The plunge in U.S. Treasury yields, down 35 basis points over the past two weeks, indicates growing investor unease about the resilience of the economy to seemingly unrelenting policy shocks. Those concerns are not irrational. Although we have argued on
Recent escalation: Donald Trump proposed additional 10% tariffs on a further US$300 billion worth of Chinese imports from 1 September. This is surprising, given that the two countries appeared to have found some common ground at the G20 meeting in
What happened in the past month? High frequency data points to retreat in both IP and retail sales growth in July. Property and land markets soften. July IPP coal consumption growth declined to -16% YoY from -10% YoY in June.
For now, the trade conflict between China and the U.S. is unlikely to ease. Markets are understandably nervous. Last week, the U.S. President once again shocked the markets by announcing that all imports from China will be subject to punitive
Charting China Monthly Review What happened in the past month? High frequency data points to retreat in both IP and retail sales growth in July. Property and land markets soften. July IPP coal consumption growth declined to -16% YoY from
From a trade dispute to a trade war. And back? The U.S.-China dispute weighs on our strategic outlook, even though its initial economic impact is small. In April, the market hoped for a resolution. Instead, the U.S.-Chinese trade dispute has
Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second
GIAM Macro & Market Research – Market Commentary As published this morning, China’s GDP growth receded to 6.2% yoy in the second quarter. This number was widely expected by market forecasts (Reuters, Bloomberg) and thus no surprise. However, it marked
China’s large bond market is poised for rapid growth as the country opens its doors more widely to foreign investors. With the ongoing search for yield, the opening of a deep and liquid bond market offering positive real yields looks
Capital Market Line Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes An important issue loomed at the core of last quarter’s exceptional chaos. Just as global manufacturing appeared to be bottoming, China emulated Trump and walked away
Executive Summary Over the secular (three- to five-year) horizon, growth in China will likely slow somewhat, and we expect some form of resolution of the current U.S.– China trade conflict. Longer-term, though, tensions will remain, as the two nations compete
Last week was an important one for US monetary policy. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave testimony to Congress where he effectively endorsed market expectations for an easing in monetary policy in July. We adjusted our view to now expect
While America spent the past decade upgrading its bank based magnetic striped cards with chips, China experienced a retail payment revolution. Leapfrogging the card-based system, two new payment systems have come to dominate person-to-person, retail, and many business transactions. China’s
Post G20: Existing tariffs stay in effect, lower S&P 500 EPS outlook No agreement or timeline to cut 25% tariffs on half the imports from China The post G20 summit between President Xi and President Trump produced many pictures and
Kijken we tien jaar vooruit, dan is de grootste groei te verwachten in het oosten. Vooral China wordt een factor van betekenis, nog belangrijker dan het land nu al is. Voor indexbouwer MSCI is deze ontwikkeling aanleiding om de weging van Chinese A-aandelen
Weekly Economic Commentary I know this will sound un-American, especially around Independence Day. But I have enjoyed following the Cricket World Cup. Think baseball, but with only two bases, no foul territory and no seventh-inning stretch. (There are, however, drink
G20 meeting ended with little progress. But postponed tariff hikes are not canceled ones. The G20 meeting in Osaka, Japan, ended on Saturday as expected: inconsequential, with a non-binding final declaration. More important were the talks on the fringes of
Global weekly commentary Key points 1. Oil and related securities have lagged despite a spike in Gulf tensions. We see selected opportunities, but expect oil to be range-bound. 2 Global stocks edged lower ahead of a key meeting between U.S.
Week Ahead Next week (July 1), China's manufacturing PMI data for June will be published. Following the intensification of the trade conflict between the US and China, manufacturing sentiment fell slightly in April and May and industrial production growth dropped
