It is well known that China faces an aging problem. The popular narrative has it that China surged up the growth league tables on the back of its giant population, reaping years of demographic dividends to become the world’s second
In Credit Core government bonds yields fell for much of the week only to revert higher on Friday owing to generally better global trade data from China indicating a recovery in exports to eurozone industrial production (-0.2% m/m versus -0.5%
China is at a crossroads. After years of heady growth, it now faces a potent mix of external and internal challenges that threaten to curb its momentum. Its prospects will hinge on how well it responds to these challenges, on
Key points We share our research on the potential impact from climate-related risks on three markets, aided by advances in data and climate science. The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged and signalled the potential for more dovish moves.
Macro Weekly Talks on trade between the US and EU and Japan look to be on the cards The spectre of a trade war has haunted a global economy this year already struggling with the lagged effects of the tightening
Regional growth has slowed in recent quarters, … After reaching cyclical highs of 6.4% yoy in H1-2018, regional growth in Asia ex Japan slowed materially in H2-2018. Our GDP-weighted regional growth tracker slowed to 6.0% yoy in Q3-2018 and to
Country Outlook The inclusion of Chinese A-shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index that took place last June is a landmark step for China’s integration into global markets. It is expected to boost investors’ interest in Chinese firms and to
In this issue Lessons from Illinois Sino-Nippon Trade Relations The Fed’s New Face(s)?
Investment Strategy Insights Imagine being joined at the hip to China’s economy, having to ride its ups and downs, while at the same time being subject to Federal Reserve policy through a fixed peg to the US dollar. That’s the
Introducing our Economic Cycle Indicator and how we apply it to the current environment The recent deterioration in high-frequency data has reignited concern about the health of the Chinese economy. However, wide divergences between some official data, such as GDP,
China’s provincial economies have come under strain as the prolonged trade war between the U.S. and China hampers exports and overall economic activity. Using the Moody’s Analytics model of the global economy and the Moody’s Analytics model of China’s provincial
Investors worldwide hang on every news story detailing the ups and downs of the increasingly tense relationship between the United States and China. While helpful, these updates typically note the ebb and flow of the tide, with little regard for
Strategy Espresso Bloomberg has confirmed that it will add Chinese CNY-denominated bonds to the Global Aggregate, Global Treasury and Emerging Market Local Currency Government indices starting in April 2019. The announcement marks another milestone in opening up and attracting further investment
Financial markets are discounting mechanisms, and the global equity markets are currently discounting an improvement in growth as 2019 unfolds. The global rally in 2017 correctly anticipated the improvement in growth and earnings in 2018, while the market weakness in
Key Insights The inclusion of Chinese local currency bonds in the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond Index will include representation in the global fixed income market. Foreign ownership of Chinese bonds is likely to increase, which will support the renminbi
Uncommon truths The global auto cycle appears to have peaked and not just in China. This was in fact preceded by weakness in global auto share prices and could do more than trade tensions to explain the end-2018 economic deceleration.
Seek opportunities, but be aware of short-term volatility Emerging markets (EM) started 2019 on a strong footing and, as a result, some excessive valuation gaps have been partially closed. Yet, we continue to see opportunities in all EM segments (equity,
I am not a China specialist. This report is the result of several months of thought about the Chinese economy and the situation China is in, facing a trade war with the US at the same time as the economy
Tailored ESG integration methodology for Chinese A-shares Powerful tool to spot the winners and losers in domestic market ESG profile coverage for 100% of portfolio and 70% of universe
Weekly Commentary We are positive on China’s stock market, even after this year’s rally, but favor a selective approach amid growth and trade risks. Global stocks edged higher last week, while oil prices rose. Meeting minutes confirmed the Fed’s willingness
Week Ahead Next week will see the end of the 90-day period granted by the US to the Chinese leadership to make progress on the trade dispute at the negotiating table. Should the talks fail, the US threatens to raise
Chinese Yuan
Weekly Bond Bulletin China’s monetary and fiscal efforts to manoeuvre a soft landing and cope with pressure from increased trade tensions are beginning to pay off. What are the broader implications?
50 days from the Hell of a Hard Brexit Britain appears to be sleepwalking towards a sticky end as the Brexit cliff edge looms large. At least the outlook is brighter across the Atlantic, while a possible bottoming in China
Progress in trade talks, soft landing ongoing The recent statements following the bilateral meetings between the US and China suggest that important progress has been made, and more details are emerging compared to the quiet early January round. However the
