Investment Monthly – February 2020 We are living in an “age of uncertainty” with persistent uncertainties around the macro outlook. Geopolitical tensions have shown they have the capacity to create episodic volatility in markets. But we think it is important
Drawing parallels between the two outbreaks is tempting but risky. The potential impact of the COVID‑19 virus on the Chinese economy has been compared with that of the SARS virus in 2003. However, there were external factors weighing on the
Key points: Recent action by the US Federal Reserve is intended to avoid a seizure of financial markets. Our economic team believes there is a 70% chance of a US recession. They also note that the average market decline when
Special Flash Over the last week, markets have already suffered trading days with vertiginous falls amid chaotic trading. On March 12, most equity markets tumbled by more than 10% and even safe havens like 30-year US Treasuries lost more than
Key points With the US and broader European economies entering the ‘acceleration’ phase of their respective COVID-19 infection cycles, fiscal policymakers across Europe and the United States have begun outlining plans to bear down on this growing shock to demand
En de impact op het financiële systeem en de markten Het aantal virus besmettingen ligt wereldwijd nu op ruim 218.000 gevallen. Na China en verscheidene Europese landen zet de verspreiding ook in de Verenigde Staten steeds verder door. Het aantal
Containment continues to tighten ; great liquidity stress forces policy action I. COVID-19 update Overseas: COVID-19 continued to spread rapidly in the US & EU; +14,717 new cases overseas; Iran showed early signs of entering the “moderation stage ”. 1,835 new
Insights on Global Economics Commentators seeking to understand the long‑term implications of COVID‑19 (a coronavirus) are frequently comparing it with the 2002–2003 severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak, which had a severe impact on both the Chinese and the global economies.
Market Compass – February 2020 Just as the US/China trade truce provided broad-based relief, the new Coronavirus in China is unsettling global financial markets. The fast-spreading disease is challenging the global macro rebound, but we still see resilience in the US
What happened in the past month? The COVID-19 containment measures muted economic activity visibly; capacity utilization on an uptrend since mid-Feb. External demand uncertainties rising. NBS manufacturing PMI fell sharply to 35.7% in February, registering a new record low. On
Overseas: COVID-19 escalated rapidly in the US and EU; total overseas confirmed cases rose to 98,161 (+16,026 cases, or +14% DoD), far surpassing that in China. 860 new cases confirmed in US on Mar 16; cumulative 4,662. New cases in
Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since
De voorbije week in een notendop De Amerikaanse economie creëerde 237.000 nieuwe jobs en deed het dus beter dan de verwachte +175.000. De cijfers betreen evenwel een periode waarin nog geen geval van het coronavirus in de VS was gemeld.
Markets will discern winners from losers. China has not lowered its 2020 GDP targets despite what will be very disappointing Q1 economic data. Within China, firms related to “Old China” economic sectors and their underlying stocks such as transportation, brick-and-mortar
TRADE: Though phase 1 of the US-China trade deal will go into effect on Feb. 14, the scope of the agreement is limited in its specifications. We expect enforcement to become a key focus going forward. Our base case remains
Gauging the Virus How Widespread and How Virulent? Chinese Economic Impact …
New infections in Wuhan/Hubei and the rest of China have fallen sharply, although new infections in Hubei are still running in the hundreds (it seems like Wuhan, in contrast to the rest of China, is being left to fend for
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint he coronavirus casts a dark shadow over the world economy by threatening to derail the revival in growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show a steady
Updated: February 28, 2020 COVID-19 is, first and foremost, a humanitarian challenge. COVID-19 has affected communities on multiple continents, with over 2,800 deaths out of over 82,000 reported cases. To date, Wuhan and Hubei province have been the most affected
Perspectives on the Coronavirus Outbreak The novel coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, is the cause of COVID-19, a severe respiratory disease first detected in Wuhan, China…
Indexology WINTER 2020 Magazine Fifty years ago there were no index funds. All investment portfolios were “active, ” which meant that their managers attempted to outperform benchmark indices like the S&P 500 ® . Today, we estimate that between one quarter
Markets in turmoil – our outlook Nobody can currently estimate how fast and how far the new coronavirus will spread. The markets have reacted strongly this week, probably too strongly, to the global spread of the virus. We expect the
Research & Strategy Insights Chinese normalisation may come too late The first macro data on China reflecting the state of the economy since the start of the epidemic is trickling in and the collapse in the official composite Purchasing Management
No recession in sight. Focus moves to environmental issues. A key focus of 2020 will, we think, be ‘green spending’. It is set to move to the forefront in Europe and China; and be a major presidential election issue in
Economic Report Monday, fear over the Coronavirus finally gripped investors, as both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 index fell over 3% – the largest daily declines in two years. These drops wiped out all the gains
Which financial assets are well positioned and which ones are at risk as policy-makers brace for major COVID-19-induced demand shocks? Find out more in this piece.
‘Whatever it takes’: Fiscal Edition -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/ubp/whatever-it-takes-fiscal-edition/ #CentralBanks #china #coronavirus #credit #crisis #ECB #fiscalpolicy #fomc #COVID19 via
@UBP_Group
Middle Market Direct Lending: Benefits of Pursuing Both Sponsored and Non-Sponsored Transactions -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/franklin-templeton/middle-market-direct-lending-benefits-of-pursuing-both-sponsored-and-non-sponsored-transac/ #Banks #Credit #lending via
@FTI_Global
Eye on the Market: Man vs Nature -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/jp-morgan/eye-on-the-market-man-vs-nature/ #centralbanks #Fed #fomc #government via
@jpmorgan
@JPMorganAM
Can the world economy “afford” this scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus? -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/opiniopro-selection/can-the-world-economy-afford-this-scale-of-fiscal-and-monetary-stimulus/ #CentralBanks #coronavirus #FED #fiscalpolicy #fomc #inflation #COVID19 via
@Opinio_Pro
