In het oorspronkelijke stuk getiteld "Barometer: Slimme keuzes buiten opkomende markten" is het overkoepelende thema het navigeren door economische instabiliteit en het strategisch plannen van investeringskeuzes. De auteur is optimistisch over aandelen en obligaties in opkomende markten, maar blijft voorzichtig
In "Earnings recession to catch up with corporates," Allianz reveals an intricate picture of the Q1 earnings season. Despite 62% of European and US companies surpassing estimates, US earnings are already in a recession. This is primarily attributed to the
The "Multi-Asset Solutions Strategy Report: Global markets and multi-asset portfolios" by JP Morgan Asset Management presents a cautious global economic outlook amidst recession risks and financial sector stress. While the current data suggests a subtrend global growth and easing inflation
Is the long-term case for emerging market debt still intact? In this research paper, Kirstie Spence discusses the outlook for emerging market debt and how it has been impacted by the global economic backdrop. She emphasizes that despite the current
In the first quarter of 2023, global growth generally surpassed expectations, with the US and European composite purchasing managers’ index (PMI) business surveys highlighting the rebound. Factors such as lower energy and oil prices, along with the reopening of China,
The month of March 2023 has been characterized by significant volatility in equities and bond markets, triggered by troubles in US and European banks, which have led to a resurgence of macroeconomic uncertainty. This situation has seen a temporary resurgence
In the face of China's clean energy dominance, the US and EU are poised to expand their clean technology efforts. The US has implemented industrial policies with protectionist elements to incentivize global companies to manufacture clean energy products domestically, while
In this issue of The Street View, the main focus is on Asia's new economy and its wide range of opportunities for Actis. Investment projects span Lifescience facilities in India, renewable energy in Japan and Vietnam, and green buildings in
China's Reopening: Implications and Impact In this analysis, the author discusses the potential outcomes of China's reopening following the abrupt end of the zero-COVID policy. The main theme of the text revolves around two alternative economic reopening scenarios and their
"Navigating China: Beyond the Reopening" discusses the challenges and opportunities that investors face as China moves beyond its initial reopening phase. The authors highlight the importance of alternative data in understanding the country's economic activity, policy moves, and geopolitics amid
As global businesses seek to diversify their supply chains, they are increasingly adopting the China Plus One strategy. This approach involves investing in countries other than China, with India expected to benefit significantly as it becomes the world's most populous
Global Markets: Monthly Update and Key Insights The latest global markets report reveals mixed performance in major equity markets as investors assess growth opportunities against inflation concerns, with bond prices falling globally. The report highlights the 41-year high Japanese inflation,
The State Bank of Vietnam recently cut its benchmark rate by 100 basis points, dropping from 4.5% to 3.5%. Catherine Reichlin examines the implications of this move in her Bond Moment report. Although Vietnam already had low rates compared to
This report highlights the evolution of Chinese assets and investors’ allocations to the region. Observation 1 shows that investors outside China have low allocations to the country, with variations depending on their location and investment strategy. Chinese equities and bonds
Strategic Research Unit Summary 3 The strong start to 2023 for emerging market (EM) equities faded in February. The China re-opening rally lost steam, and was exacerbated by re-escalation in US-China tensions. Meanwhile, more resilient US macroeconomic data raised the
We’ve finally left annus horribilis 2022 behind us—and while there are still some gloomy pockets in the economy, some market areas started the new year off on a strong note amid positive developments that give reason for hope.
After nearly three years of zero-COVID policies, the Chinese authorities relaxed most restrictions towards the end of 2022, including “harsh lockdowns, mandatory testing, and centralised quarantine for positive cases and close contacts.” While this relaxation in restrictions has been reportedly
Markets have started 2023 strongly as some of the headwinds that dominated markets in 2022 have started to dissipate. China has reopened its economy faster than expected; warm weather in the euro area has eased concerns over natural gas shortages;
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q1 2023 Upgrade to global growth as developed markets hold up and China reopens. After what has felt like a constant period of negative economic shocks and forecast downgrades as the world has lurched from one
What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening. Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address
A more diverse – and robust – market Over the past three decades the gold market has undergone extraordinary change. The structure and dynamics of demand and supply are vastly different from those of thirty years ago. Yet amid this
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe After outpacing the rest of the world by more than 170% over the past nine years between 2013 and 2021, US equity markets notably lagged the rest of the world last year. Despite
Valuations continue to favour ex-US markets Summary Markets have rallied hard in early 2023, on relief at China re-opening and on expectations that there will be a softer economic landing than previously feared in the developed world (slide 9) Europe’s
Global investors still mostly favour onshore equities, i.e. the A-share market (the CSI 800 Index), to build exposure to the Chinese economy; however, the high volatility associated with these shares has historically been a drawback. If we look back at
Key takeaways China’s reopening could be a positive catalyst for depressed equity valuations The property market will likely become a smaller part of the economy longer term China’s video game platforms, payment systems and e-commerce have been areas of tremendous
2022 ended in an abrupt fast-track reopening. In one month, China dropped most of its Covid-related restrictions, vowed to support the housing market more, and set pro-growth policies. We expect the Chinese economy to be separated from the global slowdown
As nearly three years of lockdowns come to an end in China, will 2023 be a turning point for equity investors? Without a doubt, China’s equity risk premium is higher than other markets. As investment professionals with more than 25
ESG is an acronym for Environmental, Social, and Governance. It was first proposed by the United Nations Environment Programme as a concept in 2004, providing a complementary perspective for evaluating company performance and management in addition to financial performance. Its
We remain relatively constructive on Asia ex‑Japan equities for 2023. The short-term setup for China and North Asia looks attractive: Valuations are at cyclically depressed levels, and the markets are very under-owned by global investors. We are seeing clear signs
Jared Franz, for example, says the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, yet when the economy recovers, it will be stronger than prior rebounds. Meanwhile, Robert Lind argues that European policymakers will likely run looser fiscal policies and tolerate
China Market Outlook 2023 KEY INSIGHTS Since the Party Congress, China has announced a significant easing in its zero-COVID restrictions and more measures to stabilize residential property, which is encouraging. China is at a different stage of its business cycle
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole.
Following last October’s National Party Congress (NPC), China’s government is getting back to business to help ramp up growth. This means making significant changes to three core issues that have weighed on China’s economy and stock market, which we will
Central banks have started to moderate the pace of tightening but we are not close to a pivot. Inflation remains too high and US labour market data continue to point towards a tight market. Central banks will keep rates at
China’s once-in-a-decade census revealed some interesting demographic issues. The country has 264 million people aged 60 and above, which equates to 18.7% of the population, considerably higher than 13% in 2010. The 12 million births …
Key takeaways Chinese equities have had a volatile 2022 so far as the country has had to navigate COVID-19 restrictions, property debt concerns and supply chain constraints among many other headwinds China is becoming an increasingly selective market that requires
Health care has been the worst-returning sector in China since the peak of the market last year. Behind this decline has been geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic risks and domestic policy. Long term, the outlook is still encouraging, however, with demographics supporting
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact. Rather than forecasting exactly when global markets might fall into recession this time, the following
As difficult as Chinese equities have been over the past year, weakness in the health care sector has been notable. While President Biden’s announcement of a plan to boost US biomanufacturing sent shares of Chinese health care companies tumbling over
With the book now closed on the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), market watchers are busy analysing the various personnel and policy developments as they try to plot the next five years and beyond for …
As difficult as Chinese equities have been over the past year, weakness in the health care sector has been notable. While President Biden’s announcement of a plan to boost US biomanufacturing sent shares of Chinese health care companies tumbling over
Key takeaways Chinese equities have had a volatile 2022 so far as the country has had to navigate COVID-19 restrictions, property debt concerns and supply chain constraints among many other headwinds China is becoming an increasingly selective market that requires
On August 26, 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the Ministry of Finance announced the signing of a Statement of Protocol, allowing the PCAOB to conduct
China’s ascension over the past twenty years to the second largest economy in the world has changed the global landscape in a variety of ways. As China’s economic size and market capitalization grows, many investors have reasonably been pondering how
De groeiende sector van hernieuwbare energie in China biedt sterke groeivooruitzichten omdat het land ambitieuze nettonuldoelstellingen stelt. Van luchtvervuiling en stijgende zeespiegels tot bodemverontreiniging en waterschaarste, China, 's werelds grootste uitstoter van broeikasgassen, kampt met …
China has once again captured the attention of investors seeking shelter from unprecedented global policy tightening. This is understandable, as the country was first in, first out of the Covid pandemic and remains ahead of the curve in terms of
Valuations were simply not sustainable The first half of 2022 was anything but pleasant for investors, especially those with exposure to the technology sector. Tech stocks across global markets experienced violent sell-offs, and tech indexes are now firmly in bear
While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The
Global economy is slowing, due to the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, supply bottlenecks and China’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy. CBs will tighten financial conditions to tame persistent inflation. A global recession is not our main scenario, but there are areas
Key Takeaways: The equity correction is likely over as recession is not 12 months away. Nominal growth remains extraordinarily high relative to Fed hawkishness. The US central bank remains “behind the curve” despite flagging 200bps of hikes by year end.
