Investment Outlook 2021 According to our scenario, all countries should see renewed growth in 2021. Economies have seen a gradual upturn since summer 2020, although the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and new local restrictions are hampering the recovery at the
"Moreover, an end to the trade war does not mean the end to the tech war. There is a strong consensus in the US for curbing China’s access to critical technologies. Biden is unlikely to reverse the Trump administration’s tech
T. Rowe Price Insights On the US Election Democrat Joe Biden’s policy proposals as the next U.S. president (pending the outcome of potential legal challenges) could have mixed implications for investors if implemented, according to T. Rowe Price investment professionals. On the
We expect Chinese economic recovery to remain on track with strengthening endogenous momentum. China continued its economic recovery in 3Q but the drivers were different from those in 2Q: infrastructure investment growth slowed on the margin, while manufacturing investment growth
#43 Before two interesting research papers are higlighted, we’d like to suggest two interesting webinars that are held this week. Tomorrow, 27 October, T. Rowe Price hosts a webinar called ‘Beleggen in Chinese aandelen‘. This Thursday, 29 October, Aegon AM
#42 In October, there is no lack of webinars. This week our event calendar includes 11 webinars! For example, on Tuesday 20 October, KraneShares hosts a Virtual Conference called “The Next Chapter for China” and on Thursday 22 October, T.
European Gazette / Summer 2020 It’s been a tumultuous time for investors everywhere. Momentum is the key when looking at future prospects for stock markets and employment prospects across the continent Europe is now more than half a year into
#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts
Locking in supply chains requires continued reforms and opening up After decades of rapid growth, the progress of globalisation has slowed since the global financial crisis, with its fate further complicated by rising protectionism, political interference and the COVID-19 outbreak.
Uncommon truths China is often accused of over-investing and its capital productivity has fallen. However, marginal efficiency of capital is positive and return on equity is in the middle of the developed comparator range. We recently wrote that China’s economy
Stocks drifted higher through much of last week, although the catalysts for the move were perhaps harder to identify than usual, and trading was subdued relative to recent months. The week’s busy economic calendar appeared to play some part in
Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the
#32 The temperature in the Netherlands is going to be very high coming weekend. Therefore, please find our Top Five of week #32 right here, so you have something to read while drinking something cool! The monthly Global Investment Views
The New Silk Road routes. A significant first step in this direction was the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI, also referred to as the New Silk Road), which was proposed by the Chinese government in 2013 with the aim of
The bond market in China has been bullish after the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak, and China’s interest rate bonds have clearly outperformed global major assets. However, the global major asset prices started to surge in May and global equity market has
We foresee modest global recovery in 2H20, with China growth outpacing that of the US & EU. We expect China GDP growth to rebound to approximately 6% YoY in 4Q20, but the impacts of the U.S. COVID-19 continuing outbreak remain
China’s economic rebound from COVID-19 will likely be gradual. We anticipate growth will pick up in 2021 as more fiscal stimulus is pumped into the economy. Stimulus policies are likely to shift in favor of technology-related infrastructure, rather than property
Since the free-market reforms of the late-1970s, the Chinese economy has been transformed from an agrarian base to a manufacturing led economy, averaging 9.5% GDP growth from 1979 to 2018. 1 China issued foreign bonds from 1861- 1950 to finance
Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Rising from incredibly low levels, improving economic data that suggest the imminent start of a recovery drove a sustained rebound in most fixed income asset classes in June. Markets remain highly dependent on the …
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report China has been leading other major emerging market (EM) equity markets, staging a strong recovery from March’s lows. China’s CSI 300 Index (of onshore stocks traded in Shenzhen and Shanghai) has more than fully recovered
US stocks jumped at the start of trading last Monday, with many attributing the strength to a front-page editorial in the China Securities Journal, stating that “fostering a healthy bull market after the pandemic is now more important to …
U.S. measures could increase oversight of Chinese companies “Tough on China” policies could limit trading of Chinese securities on U.S. exchanges. Pressure mounts to subject Chinese companies to the same accounting scrutiny faced by other public companies traded in the U.S.
Fixed income investors are entering a new world. This new world is considerably more volatile – and correlated – than the past. Global economic uncertainty has pushed annualised volatility of some developed country bonds to double-digit levels. But investors are also in
We are cautious about the oil price after its rapid recovery. A weaker dollar, low real interest rates and higher inflation expectations are likely to support gold. We reaffirm our belief that China will meet the requirements of the phase-one
#24 Last Tuesday was a populair day for webinars. Five were hosted about very different subjects: Alpha Research hosted a webinar about the Subscription Economy, together with Thematics AM, and Eurizon AM hosted a webinar called “Opportunity Outlook for RMB
Deciphering policy signals from the National People’s Congress As part of our ongoing series considering international policy responses and their effectiveness during the COVID-19 pandemic, we consider the implications of China’s latest policy announcements at this year’s National People’s Congress
Webinar – Opportunity Outlook for RMB Bonds The low correlation of the Chinese Onshore Bond market with traditional asset classes has proven to work even in a severe market turmoil as experienced during the first few months of this year.
Weekly Commentary Timing is everything. We want to hit the road just ahead of rush hour. We enjoy perfectly ripe fruit, and a perfectly cooked steak. (And a perfectly aged wine to go with it.) We seek to deliver jokes
NPC 2020 – No target but still focused In a delayed session of the National People’s Congress (NPC) China dropped its numerical growth target for 2020, reflecting significant macro headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic and high level of external uncertainties
China’s economy is restarting after emerging from lockdown, likely benefiting countries and assets exposed to its growth. The key to the policy response has shifted to ensuring successful execution and avoiding policy fatigue before the shock passes. Markets will watch
China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.
Investing in science China has been much in the news recently as it handles the COVID-19 virus, and because of political and trade tensions with the West. We continue to believe China remains a growth opportunity for investors. Indeed, by
Research & Strategy Insights While the market is understandably more sensitive to the newsflow around a potential vaccine than to economic data, we still focus on the “background noise” which is likely to accompany the mechanical rebound …
CIO Commodity Commentary Oil is again trading near its five-week high, with a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of around 29.5 dollars per barrel – a bit higher than half its end-February level. After April's rollercoaster …
Weekly commentary Global stocks have recovered more than half of the selloff triggered by the coronavirus pandemic since late March – alongside a sharp contraction in economic activity and corporate earnings. We see the unprecedented policy …
China A-shares fund manager Jack Lee looks at some of the main investment themes he’s focusing on, in a market that has been remarkably resilient this year. So far this year, China’s A-share market has been relatively resilient, holding up
Webinar – The reopening of China’s economy and investing post Covid 19 quarantine The event will feature a joint presentation by KraneShares Chief Investment Officer, Brendan Ahern, and our Beijing-based colleague Kevin Liu, Executive Director, at China International Capital Corporation.
Small, open economies such as Singapore, Vietnam and Malaysia are the most exposed to final demand from the US, Europe and China. This makes them the most vulnerable to the coronavirus growth interruption. Thailand and Hong Kong have the largest
Weekly Market Recap Last week brought a host of data showing an unprecedented contraction in economic activity, but investors seemed to take hope that the economy was bottoming. On Tuesday, several gauges showed a record contraction in both manufacturing and
Investment Strategy: KWEB seeks to measure the performance of the investable universe of publicly traded China-based companies whose primary business or businesses are in the Internet and Internet-related sectors. KWEB features: Access to Chinese internet companies that provide similar services
Overseas economic activities may remain in a “standstill” mode throughout most of 2Q2020, adversely affecting China’s external demand growth. In terms of the timeline of the COVID-19 development, the U.S. and EU lag China by ~2-3 months, while some of
The fashion industry is a complex business which will experience major structural changes in the years ahead. According to United Nations, the industry consumes more energy than aviation and shipping combined and contributes to around 10% of global greenhouse gas
Behind the volatility lients have asked us about the difference between the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the crisis we face today. During the GFC, control of the recovery was largely in the hands of the government bailing out troubled
Our view is that allocating to defensiveness is more important than timing a bottom in asset prices and adding to risk at this stage. The Japanese yen is increasingly showing its defensive properties, Chinese government bonds are offering attractive yields,
China’s first quarter growth has been predictably weak, but GAM Investments’ Rob Mumford believes the key question now centres around the pace of future growth. As expected China reported a very weak GDP of down -6.8% which was just a
Webinar – Hard Fork – Bitcoin ban in China and its impact A “hard fork” in blockchain is a point at which the protocol of the ledger diverges such that two separate irreconcilable chains are produced. Chains can become incompatible for
On the Markets In the last week of February, financial markets had one of their sharpest corrections in history. The culprit is growing concern that the coronavirus outbreak, which began in China two months ago, last month, has now spread
Markets will discern winners from losers. China has not yet lowered its 2020 GDP targets despite what will be very disappointing Q1 economic data. Within China, firms related to “Old China” economic sectors and their underlying stocks such as transportation,
What happened in the past month? Domestic production resumption rate recovered to 86.8% from 65.7% in March. On the other hand, however, external demand started to weaken, with the pandemic escalating rapidly overseas. As of March 27, CICC PAT showed
Looking at the economic and market outlook for 2020 just a few months ago, there’s no doubt times have changed. The spread of the coronavirus dealt a severe, unexpected shock that impacted people— and markets—around the globe. Many investors are
