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Protecting Your Portfolio from Inflation After the Fact

Protecting Your Portfolio from Inflation After the Fact

🕔10:18, 23.Jun 2022

Soaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades. With commodity prices up and inflation creating waves, is it too late for investors to capitalize on high commodity prices? Have

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Commodities at war: testing the mettle of the global metals industry

Commodities at war: testing the mettle of the global metals industry

🕔19:00, 10.Jun 2022

For the past couple of decades, China has been the driver of the health of the global metals industry as it accounts for roughly 50% of demand for a number of metals commodities. More recently, two other factors have driven

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Contained EM inflation and higher real yields suggest relative value in local markets

Contained EM inflation and higher real yields suggest relative value in local markets

🕔08:30, 2.Jun 2022

The recent surge in commodity prices has amplified the acceleration in inflation that we have been seeing globally, arising from disruption to global supply chains caused by the pandemic. Expectations just a few months ago were that the drivers …

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Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll

🕔15:20, 31.May 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains

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Parijs gaat voor Olympisch hout

Parijs gaat voor Olympisch hout

🕔14:03, 31.May 2022

De Olympische Spelen van Parijs en nieuwe Franse regelgeving zetten de schijnwerpers op de voordelen van hout als bouwmateriaal. Op 21 november trapt Nederland samen met Senegal het Wereldkampioenschap voetbal af in Qatar. Er is veel kritiek op het event,

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Gold outlook to Q1 2023: Is gold returning from the alternate universe?

Gold outlook to Q1 2023: Is gold returning from the alternate universe?

🕔14:11, 23.May 2022

For most of the past year, gold has been ignoring the red-hot inflation that we have been living in. Our internal forecasts model indicates that gold, when factoring in a US inflation rate of 7.9% in February 2022, should be

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Commodities at war: Food Fight

Commodities at war: Food Fight

🕔10:53, 20.May 2022

Higher prices supported by a considerable percentage of global production coming from Russia and Ukraine have caught many commodities in the crosshairs of the Russian-Ukraine war. Concerns are growing over the ability to source these commodities from outside of Ukraine

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The energy crisis heightens inflation fears

The energy crisis heightens inflation fears

🕔12:38, 19.May 2022

Inflation was already running well above central banks’ targets as we entered the year. The war has put additional pressure on prices and supply chains and this could have repercussions not just on oil, but on other commodities as well.

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Shortage of Neon Gas Dims Tech Output

Shortage of Neon Gas Dims Tech Output

🕔08:52, 10.May 2022

One commodity negatively impacted by the war is neon gas, a key input used in the semiconductor process. Bulk neon gas is a byproduct of the steel industry (primarily the Russian steel industry), which is captured and filtered to achieve

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Q&A: impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on emerging market debt

Q&A: impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on emerging market debt

🕔15:34, 6.May 2022

In this Q&A, Kirstie Spence and Robert Burgess share their views on Russia, commodity prices and the impact of the conflict on emerging markets. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict compare to previous periods of geopolitical instability? Kirstie: The current situation

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Forget what you’ve done for the last decade

Forget what you’ve done for the last decade

🕔14:37, 4.May 2022

What does this mean for our portfolios? Firstly, let’s take the situation in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Above all there is the human perspective, which is tragic and horrifying. But our clients also need us to examine it from an

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The value winter is thawing

The value winter is thawing

🕔16:02, 2.May 2022

Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level

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Impact of the rise in commodity prices on EM equities

Impact of the rise in commodity prices on EM equities

🕔10:05, 30.Apr 2022

A further rise in commodity prices is a key channel through which the conflict in Russia/Ukraine might affect the rest of EM. If the commodity price increase is sustained, some EM countries may suffer from a deterioration in the terms

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Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD

🕔10:05, 23.Apr 2022

A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has

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Commodities at War Series: Fertilizer Prices are a Growing Concern for Farmers

Commodities at War Series: Fertilizer Prices are a Growing Concern for Farmers

🕔14:32, 14.Apr 2022

Fertilizer prices have risen rapidly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is a material producer and exporter of fertilizer. The combination of sanctions, shipping firms avoiding the Black Sea region and Western banks, and traders shunning Russian supplies has

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EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows

🕔10:52, 11.Apr 2022

ETFs posted net inflows of $3.5bn last week.Both Equity and Fixed Income saw strong net inflows, taking in $2.2bn and $1.5bn, respectively. Commodity saw net outflows of $238mn while Money Market lost $194mn last week.

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From rebound to uncertainty

From rebound to uncertainty

🕔15:44, 29.Mar 2022

There’s no doubt the war in Ukraine has clouded the economic outlook. Commodity prices have soared following Russia’s invasion putting more pressure on households’ real disposable income, and dampening growth prospects. But there’s real momentum behind the UK recovery going

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Dark days for Ukraine

Dark days for Ukraine

🕔14:47, 21.Mar 2022

Investors’ Outlook: It’s hard to escape the news of a European country and its capital about to be flogged into submission by an aggressive superpower. Kyiv, a beautiful and lively city on a hill above the Dnipro river, has in

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Bretton Woods III

Bretton Woods III

🕔12:23, 16.Mar 2022

We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.

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Russia/Ukraine and US LNG: energy implications

Russia/Ukraine and US LNG: energy implications

🕔10:10, 15.Mar 2022

There are a lot of things going on this morning: the S&P 500 is down 1.7%, European stocks are down 4%-5%, Russian stocks are down 35%, the Ruble plummeted and then rebounded when the Russian central bank announced interventions, Brent/WTI

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What’s Hot: Has war awoken gold?

What’s Hot: Has war awoken gold?

🕔11:00, 1.Mar 2022

The European Union says it is one of the darkest hours for Europe since World War Two, with reports of Russia mounting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Friday 22nd January 2022. At the time of writing, many commodity prices

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What’s Hot: Do commodities offer an avenue to hedge against Russia-NATO tensions?

What’s Hot: Do commodities offer an avenue to hedge against Russia-NATO tensions?

🕔16:23, 10.Feb 2022

The intensifying standoff over Ukraine has led to heightened geopolitical tensions in 2022. Russia has always considered Ukraine to be under its sphere of influence, but as Ukraine has looked towards the west, the dynamic has become less acceptable for

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Broad Commodities, The hedge against inflation and supply-chain driven disruptions

Broad Commodities, The hedge against inflation and supply-chain driven disruptions

🕔08:48, 10.Feb 2022

2021 will remain known as the year when both inflation and broad commodity investment woke up from their decade long slumber. While distracted observers may chalk this up to chance, specialists will recognise the effect of disrupted supply-chain and renewed

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What’s Hot – Platinum and palladium driving through darkness – “Is that light at the end of the tunnel?”

What’s Hot – Platinum and palladium driving through darkness – “Is that light at the end of the tunnel?”

🕔08:11, 31.Jan 2022

Commodities had a party in 2021, but platinum and palladium never made it. But are the two poised to make a return in 2022? Is there light at the end of the tunnel? When we last wrote about them in

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What’s Hot – Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to natural gas prices

What’s Hot – Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to natural gas prices

🕔14:06, 27.Dec 2021

Natural gas prices have declined sharply by 32.8%1 over the prior month. As we discussed here, market price action had run ahead of its underlying fundamentals. A combination of expectations of a warmer than usual winter period in North America

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The historical superiority of physically-backed investments in precious metals

The historical superiority of physically-backed investments in precious metals

🕔14:23, 13.Dec 2021

Gold is usually one of the largest commodities in an investor's portfolio, being used as an inflation hedge, as a safehaven asset or as part of broad commodities exposure (like the Bloomberg Commodity Index). Because most commodities cannot be accessed

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The role of income in portfolios

The role of income in portfolios

🕔10:01, 13.Dec 2021

Executive summary Many aspects of investing are fundamentally rooted in the idea that total investment return includes both investment income and investment price appreciation (growth). Nearly every asset class can be decomposed into these two characteristics—some assets being composed mostly

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Could there be a shortage of oil?

Could there be a shortage of oil?

🕔15:21, 30.Nov 2021

Could a lack of upstream investment lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices? We think lower investment was due to falling prices and believe it is now reversing. We remain wary of oil. 

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What’s Hot: Red-hot inflation kindles a flame for commodities and gold

What’s Hot: Red-hot inflation kindles a flame for commodities and gold

🕔22:13, 26.Nov 2021

 US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.2% in October 2020, marking the highest level of inflation since 1990. The print, released on Wednesday 10th November 2021, outstripped the Bloomberg consensus survey of 5.9%. The central bank mantra of inflation being

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The Case for Investing in Broad Commodities

The Case for Investing in Broad Commodities

🕔15:23, 25.Nov 2021

Building Stronger Portfolios Despite being traded on exchanges for more than a century, commodities are the least well understood of the main asset classes. Over the last 20 years, this gap has begun to close, with many renowned academics pointing

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Het beleggingseffect van tektonische verschuivingen

Het beleggingseffect van tektonische verschuivingen

🕔15:55, 16.Nov 2021

Toen Joe Biden werd verkozen, werd er wereldwijd een zucht van verlichting geslaakt. Eindelijk waren ‘we’ verlost van een president die de wereld uit elkaar dreef. In de tijd dat Trump aan de macht was, stond een handelsoorlog regelmatig bovenaan

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Growing pains – strong demand, constrained supply and elevated inflation

Growing pains – strong demand, constrained supply and elevated inflation

🕔16:39, 3.Nov 2021

House View Q4 2021 The course of economic recoveries and expansions never runs completely smoothly. Businesses need to adjust to the changing environment and are just as likely to be surprised by the strength of demand as by any unexpected

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Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

🕔13:55, 15.Oct 2021

Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen.  De Timber-strategie van Pictet

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The wall of worry only gets higher

The wall of worry only gets higher

🕔07:54, 13.Oct 2021

Multi Asset Quarterly: Economic outlook The economic normalization continues, although at an uneven pace following the long Covid-related shutdowns. Further severe lockdowns look unlikely in most Western countries. Supply chain bottlenecks are blurring the near-term macro visibility. Inflation numbers have risen

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Why Are Gas Prices So High?

Why Are Gas Prices So High?

🕔09:50, 9.Oct 2021

In October 2019, the OIES published a Comment entitled ‘$2 gas in Europe’, 1 which turned into a series of papers with similar titles. 2, 3 The first paper suggested that 2020 could see gas prices in Europe below $3

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Two questions for autumn

Two questions for autumn

🕔11:15, 8.Sep 2021

Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an

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Barometer: Dealing with Delta

Barometer: Dealing with Delta

🕔15:40, 7.Sep 2021

Asset allocation: stimulus and vaccine offer enduring support Economic growth has clearly slowed in recent months thanks in large part to the spread of the particularly infectious Delta variant of Covid. Still, with monetary stimulus in plentiful supply and vaccination

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Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

🕔13:28, 13.Aug 2021

Investors may be concerned about how to protect their portfolios from the impact of higher inflation. Investments such as commodities, real estate and equities have historically outperformed when prices rise. But performance doesn’t tell the whole story. These asset classes

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Global economic slowdown ahead?

Global economic slowdown ahead?

🕔13:05, 13.Jul 2021

When we entered the second quarter of 2021, we stated in Allocation Views that “sometimes it is right to just go with the flow, at least for a while.” We thought that “this is perhaps one of those times” when

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Fed in a balancing act

Fed in a balancing act

🕔10:16, 13.Jul 2021

The economic normalization process is well under way in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers and expectations have risen sharply, but we see this as transitory. During the June FOMC meeting, the Fed made a hawkish

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Things are so good that it’s time for a break

Things are so good that it’s time for a break

🕔20:05, 7.Jul 2021

A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see

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Guide to the Markets – Q3 2021

Guide to the Markets – Q3 2021

🕔10:15, 6.Jul 2021 Read Full Article
Commodities: Power for the future

Commodities: Power for the future

🕔15:00, 15.Apr 2021

Commodities returns have been lacklustre for a long time, and many investors have divested from the asset class. In this report, we put the spotlight on commodities, which are poised to become an invaluable component in the investor’s portfolio. There are numerous …

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Commodities rewired

Commodities rewired

🕔14:03, 15.Apr 2021

Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …

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Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

🕔09:07, 9.Mar 2021

How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …

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Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal

Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal

🕔13:42, 3.Feb 2021

Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal After a slow start, silver outpaced gold and most industrial metals in 2020. Initially riding gold’s defensive coattails and then getting a tailwind from its industrial traits, silver was

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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Recovery enters a Second Phase

Recovery enters a Second Phase

🕔14:47, 13.Nov 2020

The Investment Clock: "Recovering: After a plunge into recession, economic data started a rapid pick up from March in China and May/June in Europe and the US as social distancing eased. Retail sales have recovered particularly fast in the US

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Gold Miners’ Re-Rating Calls For Mass Appeal, Not Mass Production

Gold Miners’ Re-Rating Calls For Mass Appeal, Not Mass Production

🕔14:44, 26.Oct 2020

Gold Correction U.S. dollar strength kept pressure on gold throughout September. The dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),1 trended higher as the stock market trended lower from its all-time highs. The pandemic stimulus-driven bull market looks to

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Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

🕔14:29, 8.Sep 2020

Asset Allocatie Consensus Augustus 2020 gaat de boeken in als de maand waarin alle grote Amerikaanse beursindices records breken. Opnieuw was Tech de uitblinker dat als sector een jaarperformance van bijna 25% laat zien. Wall Street overvleugelt daarmee Main Street,

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