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Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

🕔15:28, 20.Jul 2021

Investors may be concerned about how to protect their portfolios from the impact of higher inflation. Investments such as commodities, real estate and equities have historically outperformed when prices rise. But performance doesn’t tell the whole story. These asset classes

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Global economic slowdown ahead?

Global economic slowdown ahead?

🕔13:05, 13.Jul 2021

When we entered the second quarter of 2021, we stated in Allocation Views that “sometimes it is right to just go with the flow, at least for a while.” We thought that “this is perhaps one of those times” when

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Fed in a balancing act

Fed in a balancing act

🕔10:16, 13.Jul 2021

The economic normalization process is well under way in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers and expectations have risen sharply, but we see this as transitory. During the June FOMC meeting, the Fed made a hawkish

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Things are so good that it’s time for a break

Things are so good that it’s time for a break

🕔20:05, 7.Jul 2021

A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see

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Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

🕔13:55, 6.Jul 2021

Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen.  De Timber-strategie van Pictet

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Guide to the Markets – Q3 2021

Guide to the Markets – Q3 2021

🕔10:15, 6.Jul 2021 Read Full Article
Commodities: Power for the future

Commodities: Power for the future

🕔15:00, 15.Apr 2021

Commodities returns have been lacklustre for a long time, and many investors have divested from the asset class. In this report, we put the spotlight on commodities, which are poised to become an invaluable component in the investor’s portfolio. There are numerous …

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Commodities rewired

Commodities rewired

🕔14:03, 15.Apr 2021

Oil and industrial metals have rallied since late-2020 on expectations for a swift economic restart, sparking talk of a new commodity “supercycle.” We see a more nuanced outlook – with a divergence across different commodities. The lift for oil from the economic restart is likely to be transitory, while some metals may benefit …

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Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

Commodities and bond yields have risen sharply in February

🕔09:07, 9.Mar 2021

How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …

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Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal

Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal

🕔13:42, 3.Feb 2021

Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal After a slow start, silver outpaced gold and most industrial metals in 2020. Initially riding gold’s defensive coattails and then getting a tailwind from its industrial traits, silver was

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2021 Investment Outlook

2021 Investment Outlook

🕔15:05, 24.Nov 2020

"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis

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Recovery enters a Second Phase

Recovery enters a Second Phase

🕔14:47, 13.Nov 2020

The Investment Clock: "Recovering: After a plunge into recession, economic data started a rapid pick up from March in China and May/June in Europe and the US as social distancing eased. Retail sales have recovered particularly fast in the US

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Gold Miners’ Re-Rating Calls For Mass Appeal, Not Mass Production

Gold Miners’ Re-Rating Calls For Mass Appeal, Not Mass Production

🕔14:44, 26.Oct 2020

Gold Correction U.S. dollar strength kept pressure on gold throughout September. The dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),1 trended higher as the stock market trended lower from its all-time highs. The pandemic stimulus-driven bull market looks to

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Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

Wall Street overtroeft Main Street

🕔14:29, 8.Sep 2020

Asset Allocatie Consensus Augustus 2020 gaat de boeken in als de maand waarin alle grote Amerikaanse beursindices records breken. Opnieuw was Tech de uitblinker dat als sector een jaarperformance van bijna 25% laat zien. Wall Street overvleugelt daarmee Main Street,

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Biodiversity crisis: Why agriculture threatens biodiversity, and how responsible investors can respond

Biodiversity crisis: Why agriculture threatens biodiversity, and how responsible investors can respond

🕔09:21, 4.Sep 2020

Biodiversity plays a crucial role in protecting our health. It is only by understanding and respecting its limits that we will maintain the ecosystems that ensure our survival. Human activity is a growing threat to our life support system and

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Dollar Weakness Helps Gold To All-Time Highs

Dollar Weakness Helps Gold To All-Time Highs

🕔11:23, 27.Aug 2020

Gold Passes Two Important Sign-Posts The gold bull market passed two important sign-posts in July. The strength of the market is impressive as it blew through $1,800 and the all-time high of $1,921. These prices had been major technical resistance

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Looking Forward to Back to to School?

Looking Forward to Back to to School?

🕔12:55, 17.Aug 2020

Allocation views  As we enter the typically quieter months of the northern-hemisphere summer, we are starting to adapt to a new way of doing things. It is not quite as it was before, but it …

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Gold mid-year outlook 2020

Gold mid-year outlook 2020

🕔11:38, 7.Aug 2020

Recovery paths and impact on performance The Investors have embraced gold in 2020 as a key portfolio hedging strategy. Looking ahead, expectations for a faster recovery (V-shaped) from COVID-19 are shifting towards slower recovery (U-shaped), or potential setbacks from additional

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The Role Of Gold – A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge

The Role Of Gold – A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge

🕔13:25, 30.Jul 2020

The Role Of Gold A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. Investors buy gold for many reasons, but a common objective is a hedge

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Observations driving our outlook

Observations driving our outlook

🕔15:34, 17.Jul 2020

2020 Real Assets Outlook Coronavirus… The ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy has dramatically altered our outlook on inflation, risk and asset class returns. Going into 2020, valuations for many risk assets were rich and expected returns were

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Transition phase

Transition phase

🕔14:56, 12.Jun 2020

Perspectives Markets continue to focus on reopening plans and future growth We choose to remain cautious for now, though we believe that downside risks have become more limited We remain constructive on the medium term and look to build positions

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Adding commodities to the mix

Adding commodities to the mix

🕔15:14, 9.Jun 2020

May: Oil is back…  Risky assets continued their ascent in May. The best-performing asset class was commodities, and oil in particular. After an extremely negative performance in April, oil rebounded sharply. Pandemic fears continue to wane, and countries are slowly

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Monthly Commodity Insights

Monthly Commodity Insights

🕔17:07, 3.Jun 2020

Too early to become positive On 21 April the CRB index set a low at 101.48 when WTI oil prices dropped deep into negative territory. WTI accounts for a considerable share of the CRB index (23%). Since then oil prices

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An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case for Natural Resource Equities

An Investment Only a Mother Could Love: The Case for Natural Resource Equities

🕔14:09, 29.May 2020

Executive summary After a rough decade for commodities and commodity producers, we see resource companies trading at record low valuation levels relative to the broad equity market on some measures. Even if commodity prices were to stay flat, public resource

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A rollercoaster ride, where next…

A rollercoaster ride, where next…

🕔10:55, 29.May 2020

Market Commentary The first four months of 2020 have been exceptional for financial markets due to the spread of the coronavirus. Out of all asset classes, commodities were probably hit most severely due to the general collapse in global economic

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Alpha Research – Webinar – Asset Allocatie Consensus Online

🕔15:00, 14.May 2020

Webinar – Asset Allocatie Consensus Online Op donderdag 14 mei organiseert Alpha Research samen met Aegon Asset Management het Webinar: ‘Asset Alloctie Consensus’. Alpha Research inventariseert maandelijks meer dan 50 asset allocatie rapporten van asset managers, fondsenhuizen en research partijen en actualiseert deze opinies in

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Oil Down, Remdesivir Up

Oil Down, Remdesivir Up

🕔08:23, 6.May 2020

Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment that will likely become one part of the building

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Investing in an uncertain world

Investing in an uncertain world

🕔13:53, 1.May 2020

The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12

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Does gold hold the key?

Does gold hold the key?

🕔15:33, 30.Apr 2020

Across the Multi Asset Open range, gold has been an important asset and hedging component for the portfolios over the last few years. Chris Forgan, Portfolio Manager and Charlotte Harington, Assistant Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Multi Asset Open range

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Is the oil price as tempting as it seems?

Is the oil price as tempting as it seems?

🕔15:12, 30.Apr 2020

Even by the oil market’s standards 2020 has been exceptionally volatile. The market has faced unanticipated supply and demand shocks, leading to the commodity’s worst quarter in history. Louise Fribourg, Markets Analyst within our Multi Asset team explores what the

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Defensive positioning

Defensive positioning

🕔16:45, 24.Apr 2020

Our view is that allocating to defensiveness is more important than timing a bottom in asset prices and adding to risk at this stage. The Japanese yen is increasingly showing its defensive properties, Chinese government bonds are offering attractive yields,

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Oil Goes Sub-Zero

Oil Goes Sub-Zero

🕔15:04, 23.Apr 2020

Perhaps, it is a sign of the times we live in. Over the past decade, investors have had to get used to the idea of nominal interest rates falling below zero – something economists once thought would be impossible. Could

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Uncertainty and opportunity

Uncertainty and opportunity

🕔16:45, 17.Apr 2020

In this issue, we describe a framework to help us work through a sharp deterioration in market sentiment. As policymakers are called upon to provide support to the global economy, we focus on how the evolving macroeconomic backdrop is affecting

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Energy Monitor

Energy Monitor

🕔08:39, 17.Apr 2020

Strong deal but uncertainties remain The OPEC+ production cut agreement is historic  In particular, the length of the deal was a positive surprise There are many uncertainties left, though, which kept oil prices trading sideways ABN AMRO oil price forecast

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Into the unknown

Into the unknown

🕔14:09, 15.Apr 2020

While we maintain a constructive medium-term view for now, we remain cautious on risk assets until we see a peak in cases. Into the unknown While we are in the throes of an unprecedented health crisis, leading to an unprecedented

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The High-Stake Oil Games

The High-Stake Oil Games

🕔11:31, 9.Apr 2020

Oil prices dropped to the lowest levels in 18 years before prices ballooned Since our previous Energy Monitor on 18 March, oil prices have remained very volatile, and double-digit percentage declines or gains may look like being the new normal.

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Week #14 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro

Week #14 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro

🕔11:56, 3.Apr 2020

#14 Again, the main theme this week was: the coronavirus. The five best read research on OpinioPro this week did approach this in different ways, which makes them all very interesting to read.  Edmond de Rothschild published a “Special Flash”

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The corona shock in commodity prices

The corona shock in commodity prices

🕔13:05, 2.Apr 2020

Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut  The desired gold position?   

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Energy sector update

Energy sector update

🕔16:10, 27.Mar 2020

Key takeaways The energy sector has been hit harder by the COVID-19 outbreak than most areas, as a combination of supply and demand challenges has weighed on crude oil prices. US shale exploration and production (E&P) companies are more vulnerable

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Commodity-Market Turmoil

Commodity-Market Turmoil

🕔12:42, 26.Mar 2020

The gold price has been falling but a supportive rates environment and safe-haven demand brighten our outlook. The Saudi-Russian oil-price war broke out at the worst possible time. Any further negotiations are likely to involve a new kid on the

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Manufacturing is key for earnings and equities

Manufacturing is key for earnings and equities

🕔15:49, 20.Mar 2020

Our chief economist Steven Bell assesses the prospects for economies and markets in 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off

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Market overreactions may turn into opportunities for long term investors

Market overreactions may turn into opportunities for long term investors

🕔08:05, 19.Mar 2020

Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since

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Energy Monitor

Energy Monitor

🕔07:44, 13.Mar 2020

OPEC and partners failed to reach a new production cut agreement Russia refused to join the OPEC meeting on reaching an agreement for a bigger production cut. As a result, the current production cut agreement (officially -1.7 mb/d + 0.4

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Servicing beyond solutions

Servicing beyond solutions

🕔16:58, 2.Mar 2020

The fourth quarter ended on a high note with US equities marching to new record highs. It closed a year where the narrative mostly had been pessimistic. Uncertainties around trade tensions, Brexit, political drama and recession fears have dominated. The

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Rising risk aversion, falling bond yields

Rising risk aversion, falling bond yields

🕔15:01, 26.Feb 2020

In Credit –  24 FEBRUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds Core bond yields continue to drift lower in a ‘bull flattening’ amid fears about the spread of the COVIC-19 coronavirus outside of China and most recently in Italy and Korea.

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Viewpoint from Financial Partners

Viewpoint from Financial Partners

🕔16:43, 24.Feb 2020

Market commentary As the year began, so it ended, with yet another strong month for risk assets in December, capping one of the best years for markets since the financial crisis. Equities again led the charge, but leadership for once

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Coronavirus turmoil is overshadowing commodities

Coronavirus turmoil is overshadowing commodities

🕔16:06, 24.Feb 2020

Commodities and the energy space in particular have been challenged by the coronavirus outbreak. How the infection rate evolves over the upcoming days and weeks will be critical, especially to the oil-price outlook. Chinese copper importers have declared force majeure.

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Bulls infected by a virus

Bulls infected by a virus

🕔14:38, 18.Feb 2020

Multi Asset Monthly Economic Outlook The trade truce and the stabilization in manufacturing data have reduced recession risks, but it is still too early to give an all-clear signal. How much damage business confidence has already suffered remains a question,

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Questions amid a constructive backdrop

Questions amid a constructive backdrop

🕔06:45, 3.Feb 2020

IN SHORT Questions surround the coronavirus outbreak, with an impact expected on Q1 data, especially in China. Markets have proven mostly resilient so far, but short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated. We maintain a more constructive view for the

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CEE resilient to coronavirus

CEE resilient to coronavirus

🕔13:02, 31.Jan 2020

The impact for CEE economies stemming from China and World GDP slowdown (if any) should remain limited if the virus is contained within a short period of time. CEE, as a net commodity importer, could benefit from lower commodity prices.

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