What happens when the dollar weakens?
We believe the US dollar is expensive and starting to run on empty. Looking ahead to when the dollar weakens, we expect it to provide a ceteris paribus boost to commodities, emerging market assets and …
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Tag "commodities"
Bretton Woods III
We are witnessing the birth of Bretton Woods III – a new world (monetary) order centered around commodity-based currencies in the East that will likely weaken the Eurodollar system and also contribute to inflationary forces in the West.
Kwartaalupdate Commodities
Grondstoffen maken inmiddels zo’n 20 jaar deel uit van robuuste institutionele beleggingsportefeuilles. In die tijd is er veel veranderd. Passieve invullingen maken binnen de beleggingscategorie plaats voor alternatieve invullingen die zich over de afgelopen jaren meermaals hebben bewezen. Zowel met
A Green Future For Steel
Steel is a crucial input for multiple key sectors such as construction, renewable energy production and transport and is a fundamental element of a successful economic transition to net zero. The 2015 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
Contained EM inflation and higher real yields suggest relative value in local markets
The recent surge in commodity prices has amplified the acceleration in inflation that we have been seeing globally, arising from disruption to global supply chains caused by the pandemic. Expectations just a few months ago were that the drivers …
Impact of the rise in commodity prices on EM equities
A further rise in commodity prices is a key channel through which the conflict in Russia/Ukraine might affect the rest of EM. If the commodity price increase is sustained, some EM countries may suffer from a deterioration in the terms
Future-Facing Commodities: Essential to the Energy Transition
According to the International Energy Agency, in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals (climate stabilization at “well below” 2 degrees Celsius global temperature rise), mineral requirements for clean energy technologies would need to quadruple by 2040. In addition, in
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
Weekly as of 23 September 2022 ETFs suffered net outflows of $3.2bn last week. Equity saw the heaviest net outflows of $1.9bn. Fixed Income and Commodity exposures endured …
The autumn hard vs. soft landing puzzle
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on
The gas crisis is coming to america
Table of Contents The Gas Crisis is Coming to America The Commodity Bull Market has Just Begun Inflation and Magazine Covers Part III Market Commentary Out of Spare Capacity Catastrophic Agriculture Markets Russia and the Uranium Fuel Cycle The Time
Crude oil and the transition – the coming price spike
Where is the Low in US Stocks? In a recent piece, I suggested the PE on the S&P 500 had another 1-2 points to lose, so two things now matter most. The E in PE is one factor and, on that score, the outlook is not
Schroders Emerging Markets Lens: Emerging Market Debt
Summary Hard currency emerging market debt (EMD): – Valuations vary: 1. The spreads of investment grade (IG) sovereign and IG corporate indices are close to their historical medians. High yield (HY) corporate index spreads have inched slightly above the historical
Stagflation 2.0
Introduction: of Wolves and Bears “To ignore the warning signs and continue with the strategies of the past is to ignore the third, crucial cry of wolf.” Key Takeaways In our special analysis from the fall of 2020, "The Boy
A few words from the real world
“Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.” J.P. Morgan A few words from the real world I have just secured the mortgage on my new home. In the end, I opted for a loan which tracks 3-month EURIBOR
Green Metals Battery Metals Watch The end of the beginning
The battery metals bull market has peaked. Battery metals – cobalt, lithium and nickel – will power the green industrial revolution, facing a wave of demand comparable to that of copper and iron ore during China’s rapid growth in the
Secular Outlook June 2022
Overview It gives me great pleasure to introduce our ninth Secular Outlook. T he next five years will be an uphill struggle for investors. High public and corporate debt levels, labour shortages, potential tax hikes and increased levels of state
Protecting Your Portfolio from Inflation After the Fact
Soaring commodity prices have helped drive inflation to 8.5%, by far the highest level in the last few decades. With commodity prices up and inflation creating waves, is it too late for investors to capitalize on high commodity prices? Have
Commodities at war: testing the mettle of the global metals industry
For the past couple of decades, China has been the driver of the health of the global metals industry as it accounts for roughly 50% of demand for a number of metals commodities. More recently, two other factors have driven
Recession risks rise as inflation takes its toll
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains
Parijs gaat voor Olympisch hout
De Olympische Spelen van Parijs en nieuwe Franse regelgeving zetten de schijnwerpers op de voordelen van hout als bouwmateriaal. Op 21 november trapt Nederland samen met Senegal het Wereldkampioenschap voetbal af in Qatar. Er is veel kritiek op het event,
Gold outlook to Q1 2023: Is gold returning from the alternate universe?
For most of the past year, gold has been ignoring the red-hot inflation that we have been living in. Our internal forecasts model indicates that gold, when factoring in a US inflation rate of 7.9% in February 2022, should be
Commodities at war: Food Fight
Higher prices supported by a considerable percentage of global production coming from Russia and Ukraine have caught many commodities in the crosshairs of the Russian-Ukraine war. Concerns are growing over the ability to source these commodities from outside of Ukraine
The energy crisis heightens inflation fears
Inflation was already running well above central banks’ targets as we entered the year. The war has put additional pressure on prices and supply chains and this could have repercussions not just on oil, but on other commodities as well.
Shortage of Neon Gas Dims Tech Output
One commodity negatively impacted by the war is neon gas, a key input used in the semiconductor process. Bulk neon gas is a byproduct of the steel industry (primarily the Russian steel industry), which is captured and filtered to achieve
Q&A: impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on emerging market debt
In this Q&A, Kirstie Spence and Robert Burgess share their views on Russia, commodity prices and the impact of the conflict on emerging markets. How does the Russia-Ukraine conflict compare to previous periods of geopolitical instability? Kirstie: The current situation
Forget what you’ve done for the last decade
What does this mean for our portfolios? Firstly, let’s take the situation in Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Above all there is the human perspective, which is tragic and horrifying. But our clients also need us to examine it from an
The value winter is thawing
Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level
Commodity prices drive differentiation within EMD
A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has
Commodities at War Series: Fertilizer Prices are a Growing Concern for Farmers
Fertilizer prices have risen rapidly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Russia is a material producer and exporter of fertilizer. The combination of sanctions, shipping firms avoiding the Black Sea region and Western banks, and traders shunning Russian supplies has
EMEA-Listed ETF Flash Flows
ETFs posted net inflows of $3.5bn last week.Both Equity and Fixed Income saw strong net inflows, taking in $2.2bn and $1.5bn, respectively. Commodity saw net outflows of $238mn while Money Market lost $194mn last week.
From rebound to uncertainty
There’s no doubt the war in Ukraine has clouded the economic outlook. Commodity prices have soared following Russia’s invasion putting more pressure on households’ real disposable income, and dampening growth prospects. But there’s real momentum behind the UK recovery going
Dark days for Ukraine
Investors’ Outlook: It’s hard to escape the news of a European country and its capital about to be flogged into submission by an aggressive superpower. Kyiv, a beautiful and lively city on a hill above the Dnipro river, has in
Russia/Ukraine and US LNG: energy implications
There are a lot of things going on this morning: the S&P 500 is down 1.7%, European stocks are down 4%-5%, Russian stocks are down 35%, the Ruble plummeted and then rebounded when the Russian central bank announced interventions, Brent/WTI
What’s Hot: Has war awoken gold?
The European Union says it is one of the darkest hours for Europe since World War Two, with reports of Russia mounting a full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Friday 22nd January 2022. At the time of writing, many commodity prices
What’s Hot: Do commodities offer an avenue to hedge against Russia-NATO tensions?
The intensifying standoff over Ukraine has led to heightened geopolitical tensions in 2022. Russia has always considered Ukraine to be under its sphere of influence, but as Ukraine has looked towards the west, the dynamic has become less acceptable for
Broad Commodities, The hedge against inflation and supply-chain driven disruptions
2021 will remain known as the year when both inflation and broad commodity investment woke up from their decade long slumber. While distracted observers may chalk this up to chance, specialists will recognise the effect of disrupted supply-chain and renewed
What’s Hot – Platinum and palladium driving through darkness – “Is that light at the end of the tunnel?”
Commodities had a party in 2021, but platinum and palladium never made it. But are the two poised to make a return in 2022? Is there light at the end of the tunnel? When we last wrote about them in
What’s Hot – Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to natural gas prices
Natural gas prices have declined sharply by 32.8%1 over the prior month. As we discussed here, market price action had run ahead of its underlying fundamentals. A combination of expectations of a warmer than usual winter period in North America
The historical superiority of physically-backed investments in precious metals
Gold is usually one of the largest commodities in an investor's portfolio, being used as an inflation hedge, as a safehaven asset or as part of broad commodities exposure (like the Bloomberg Commodity Index). Because most commodities cannot be accessed
The role of income in portfolios
Executive summary Many aspects of investing are fundamentally rooted in the idea that total investment return includes both investment income and investment price appreciation (growth). Nearly every asset class can be decomposed into these two characteristics—some assets being composed mostly
Could there be a shortage of oil?
Could a lack of upstream investment lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices? We think lower investment was due to falling prices and believe it is now reversing. We remain wary of oil.
What’s Hot: Red-hot inflation kindles a flame for commodities and gold
US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 6.2% in October 2020, marking the highest level of inflation since 1990. The print, released on Wednesday 10th November 2021, outstripped the Bloomberg consensus survey of 5.9%. The central bank mantra of inflation being
The Case for Investing in Broad Commodities
Building Stronger Portfolios Despite being traded on exchanges for more than a century, commodities are the least well understood of the main asset classes. Over the last 20 years, this gap has begun to close, with many renowned academics pointing
Het beleggingseffect van tektonische verschuivingen
Toen Joe Biden werd verkozen, werd er wereldwijd een zucht van verlichting geslaakt. Eindelijk waren ‘we’ verlost van een president die de wereld uit elkaar dreef. In de tijd dat Trump aan de macht was, stond een handelsoorlog regelmatig bovenaan
Growing pains – strong demand, constrained supply and elevated inflation
House View Q4 2021 The course of economic recoveries and expansions never runs completely smoothly. Businesses need to adjust to the changing environment and are just as likely to be surprised by the strength of demand as by any unexpected
Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging
Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen. De Timber-strategie van Pictet
The wall of worry only gets higher
Multi Asset Quarterly: Economic outlook The economic normalization continues, although at an uneven pace following the long Covid-related shutdowns. Further severe lockdowns look unlikely in most Western countries. Supply chain bottlenecks are blurring the near-term macro visibility. Inflation numbers have risen
Why Are Gas Prices So High?
In October 2019, the OIES published a Comment entitled ‘$2 gas in Europe’, 1 which turned into a series of papers with similar titles. 2, 3 The first paper suggested that 2020 could see gas prices in Europe below $3
Two questions for autumn
Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an
Barometer: Dealing with Delta
Asset allocation: stimulus and vaccine offer enduring support Economic growth has clearly slowed in recent months thanks in large part to the spread of the particularly infectious Delta variant of Covid. Still, with monetary stimulus in plentiful supply and vaccination
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