"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis
The Investment Clock: "Recovering: After a plunge into recession, economic data started a rapid pick up from March in China and May/June in Europe and the US as social distancing eased. Retail sales have recovered particularly fast in the US
Gold Correction U.S. dollar strength kept pressure on gold throughout September. The dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),1 trended higher as the stock market trended lower from its all-time highs. The pandemic stimulus-driven bull market looks to
Asset Allocatie Consensus Augustus 2020 gaat de boeken in als de maand waarin alle grote Amerikaanse beursindices records breken. Opnieuw was Tech de uitblinker dat als sector een jaarperformance van bijna 25% laat zien. Wall Street overvleugelt daarmee Main Street,
Biodiversity plays a crucial role in protecting our health. It is only by understanding and respecting its limits that we will maintain the ecosystems that ensure our survival. Human activity is a growing threat to our life support system and
Gold Passes Two Important Sign-Posts The gold bull market passed two important sign-posts in July. The strength of the market is impressive as it blew through $1,800 and the all-time high of $1,921. These prices had been major technical resistance
Allocation views As we enter the typically quieter months of the northern-hemisphere summer, we are starting to adapt to a new way of doing things. It is not quite as it was before, but it …
Recovery paths and impact on performance The Investors have embraced gold in 2020 as a key portfolio hedging strategy. Looking ahead, expectations for a faster recovery (V-shaped) from COVID-19 are shifting towards slower recovery (U-shaped), or potential setbacks from additional
The Role Of Gold A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. Investors buy gold for many reasons, but a common objective is a hedge
2020 Real Assets Outlook Coronavirus… The ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy has dramatically altered our outlook on inflation, risk and asset class returns. Going into 2020, valuations for many risk assets were rich and expected returns were
Perspectives Markets continue to focus on reopening plans and future growth We choose to remain cautious for now, though we believe that downside risks have become more limited We remain constructive on the medium term and look to build positions
May: Oil is back… Risky assets continued their ascent in May. The best-performing asset class was commodities, and oil in particular. After an extremely negative performance in April, oil rebounded sharply. Pandemic fears continue to wane, and countries are slowly
Too early to become positive On 21 April the CRB index set a low at 101.48 when WTI oil prices dropped deep into negative territory. WTI accounts for a considerable share of the CRB index (23%). Since then oil prices
Executive summary After a rough decade for commodities and commodity producers, we see resource companies trading at record low valuation levels relative to the broad equity market on some measures. Even if commodity prices were to stay flat, public resource
Market Commentary The first four months of 2020 have been exceptional for financial markets due to the spread of the coronavirus. Out of all asset classes, commodities were probably hit most severely due to the general collapse in global economic
Webinar – Asset Allocatie Consensus Online Op donderdag 14 mei organiseert Alpha Research samen met Aegon Asset Management het Webinar: ‘Asset Alloctie Consensus’. Alpha Research inventariseert maandelijks meer dan 50 asset allocatie rapporten van asset managers, fondsenhuizen en research partijen en actualiseert deze opinies in
Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment that will likely become one part of the building
The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12
Across the Multi Asset Open range, gold has been an important asset and hedging component for the portfolios over the last few years. Chris Forgan, Portfolio Manager and Charlotte Harington, Assistant Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Multi Asset Open range
Even by the oil market’s standards 2020 has been exceptionally volatile. The market has faced unanticipated supply and demand shocks, leading to the commodity’s worst quarter in history. Louise Fribourg, Markets Analyst within our Multi Asset team explores what the
Our view is that allocating to defensiveness is more important than timing a bottom in asset prices and adding to risk at this stage. The Japanese yen is increasingly showing its defensive properties, Chinese government bonds are offering attractive yields,
Perhaps, it is a sign of the times we live in. Over the past decade, investors have had to get used to the idea of nominal interest rates falling below zero – something economists once thought would be impossible. Could
In this issue, we describe a framework to help us work through a sharp deterioration in market sentiment. As policymakers are called upon to provide support to the global economy, we focus on how the evolving macroeconomic backdrop is affecting
Strong deal but uncertainties remain The OPEC+ production cut agreement is historic In particular, the length of the deal was a positive surprise There are many uncertainties left, though, which kept oil prices trading sideways ABN AMRO oil price forecast
While we maintain a constructive medium-term view for now, we remain cautious on risk assets until we see a peak in cases. Into the unknown While we are in the throes of an unprecedented health crisis, leading to an unprecedented
Oil prices dropped to the lowest levels in 18 years before prices ballooned Since our previous Energy Monitor on 18 March, oil prices have remained very volatile, and double-digit percentage declines or gains may look like being the new normal.
#14 Again, the main theme this week was: the coronavirus. The five best read research on OpinioPro this week did approach this in different ways, which makes them all very interesting to read. Edmond de Rothschild published a “Special Flash”
Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut The desired gold position?
Key takeaways The energy sector has been hit harder by the COVID-19 outbreak than most areas, as a combination of supply and demand challenges has weighed on crude oil prices. US shale exploration and production (E&P) companies are more vulnerable
The gold price has been falling but a supportive rates environment and safe-haven demand brighten our outlook. The Saudi-Russian oil-price war broke out at the worst possible time. Any further negotiations are likely to involve a new kid on the
Our chief economist Steven Bell assesses the prospects for economies and markets in 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off
Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since
OPEC and partners failed to reach a new production cut agreement Russia refused to join the OPEC meeting on reaching an agreement for a bigger production cut. As a result, the current production cut agreement (officially -1.7 mb/d + 0.4
The fourth quarter ended on a high note with US equities marching to new record highs. It closed a year where the narrative mostly had been pessimistic. Uncertainties around trade tensions, Brexit, political drama and recession fears have dominated. The
In Credit – 24 FEBRUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds Core bond yields continue to drift lower in a ‘bull flattening’ amid fears about the spread of the COVIC-19 coronavirus outside of China and most recently in Italy and Korea.
Market commentary As the year began, so it ended, with yet another strong month for risk assets in December, capping one of the best years for markets since the financial crisis. Equities again led the charge, but leadership for once
Commodities and the energy space in particular have been challenged by the coronavirus outbreak. How the infection rate evolves over the upcoming days and weeks will be critical, especially to the oil-price outlook. Chinese copper importers have declared force majeure.
Multi Asset Monthly Economic Outlook The trade truce and the stabilization in manufacturing data have reduced recession risks, but it is still too early to give an all-clear signal. How much damage business confidence has already suffered remains a question,
IN SHORT Questions surround the coronavirus outbreak, with an impact expected on Q1 data, especially in China. Markets have proven mostly resilient so far, but short-term volatility is likely to remain elevated. We maintain a more constructive view for the
The impact for CEE economies stemming from China and World GDP slowdown (if any) should remain limited if the virus is contained within a short period of time. CEE, as a net commodity importer, could benefit from lower commodity prices.
In Credit
Allocation views – Perspective from Franklin Templeton Multi Asset Solutions The new year started with a bout of volatility, driven by tensions in the Middle East. US forces assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which grabbed headlines and
In Credit 13 JANUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds The rise (and subsequent fall) in tensions and combative rhetoric in the Middle East has been the key driver for ‘risk ‘free’ assets such as core government bonds. All in all, bonds
Last week, the OPEC has decided, together with her partners (combined OPEC+), to increase its production cut agreement. The existing agreement to lower crude production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) was raised with another 503 kb/d to a
In Credit 2 DECEMBER 2019 The Thanksgiving holiday meant it was a shorter and quieter week in core bond markets with little discernible direction. It was also a light week for data releases or political developments. In the US, the Chicago
Commodity Monthly Monitor We are still waiting for a confirmation of a “phase one” deal between US and China, with the term only really being used by the US. In the absence of a deal, we could see US tariffs
Key points Latin America’s struggling. Since the end of the commodity-fuelled economic boom six years ago, economic stagnation has set in across the region. Subdued growth and generally high levels of inequality have translated into increased political volatility. These events
Asia remains an important growth market for cocoa, sugar and coffee and demand on this continent will grow the most in the coming years. China and India account for a particularly large share of the demand. Although demand is increasing
An Emerging Commodity Coalition Why this report? Regardless of size in global GDP, the BRICS are responsible for almost half of consumption and production of commodities. This makes BRICS an interesting topic to address. But the BRICS will face some
Over the past month, the CRB index rose by almost 2%, which was mainly due to the price gains in oil and gas. Going forward, higher geopolitical tensions could push prices higher. Industrial metal prices remained soft, while precious metal
