Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since
2022 Global Market Outlook: Despite headwinds from the pandemic, the global economic recovery still appears on track – but inflation risks have risen. In 2022, investors will need to watch what fiscal and monetary policymakers do to try to stem price pressures while
One year after the discovery of anti-Covid vaccines, financial markets will soon have left (or slowly leaving) the pandemic behind. The economy has not. This is demonstrated by the numerous disruptions among supply chains, on labour markets or on commodity
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Asset-allocatie: De omikronvariant zal het herstel waarschijnlijk niet doen ontsporen Een nieuw
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …
Energy: Most of the companies that survived the initial shocks last year are now leaner with lower cost profiles, lower debt leverage metrics, lower capital spending, and have exhibited flexibility around shareholder distributions, all of which has contributed to stronger
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer
Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
KEY TAKEAWAYS The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months. As a result and
A little bit over a year ago, President Biden was elected, and the cyclical recovery rally kicked into gear. Low-quality stocks (lower profitability, higher debt) that had particularly suffered earlier in 2020, benefitted the most and outperformed all other parts
Chi Time China’s exchange rate policy favours a stable renminbi. However, the positive factors that have boosted the Chinese currency are turning negative, leading to some views that the renminbi should weaken in 2022. They include an expected decline in
Als er één economisch onderwerp de krantenkoppen beheerst, dan is het wel inflatie. De media staan er vol van. En terecht. We moeten terug naar begin jaren tachtig om soortgelijke hoge percentages te zien. In dit artikel zullen we ingaan
Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has
Multi-asset market outlook While inflation in the US hit a new high in November, stagflationary fears have substantially eased. The pick-up in economic momentum visible in the employment numbers and the purchasing manager’s survey have both eased growth concerns. Of
We entered 2021 with the prospect of new vaccines taming Covid-19 and that effort proved transformative in developed markets. The coronavirus persists, however, and its impact will continue to be felt in 2022 as the pandemic plays out. New therapies
From pandemic to endemic IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases
Just one year ago, COVID-19 vaccines were not yet approved, gatherings were restricted amid surging cases, many schools and offices remained closed, and thoughts of moving past the pandemic seemed as realistic as visions of sugar plums. The transformation seen
We’re now seeing the economic consequences of shutting down the world and then hitting the restart button. As most economies re-open, demand for goods and services has largely recovered to pre-Covid levels, however supply chains have remained under stress. What
Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht
Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change. As we move towards economic recovery
The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …
Volatility returned to markets as Omicron, a new Covid-19 variant, spooked investors. With 50 alterations, including 33 on the spike protein, markets were left scrambling for clues regarding its contagiousness, its lethality and the efficacy of vaccines and treatments. Several
The economic recovery has been thrown into jeopardy by the emergence of the new Omicron variant of Covid-19. However, we think that it is unlikely to completely derail the cycle and should allow central banks to tighten monetary policy in
Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy
Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of
Chi Time As more countries opt for ‘living with Covid’, China is sticking with a ‘zero Covid’ policy (ZCP) that has brought significant benefits, although not without costs. China may soon be approaching a turning point where the costs outweigh
Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will
As the US Covid-19 shutdown took hold in March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moved quickly and decisively to loosen interest rates and provide liquidity to counter the recessionary effects of the virus. On March 3, 2020, the Federal
In the short term, we are concerned that confidence in the growth outlook will wane, particularly given the recently weaker data in China, ‘stagflation risk’, and an earnings season dominated by the ‘margins squeeze’ story VIEWS & ASSET ALLOCATION Visibility
With the benefits of public sector largesse of 2020 and 2021 now fading, economies around the world are increasingly reliant on private sector demand and an increase in global trade to continue the pandemic-era expansion currently underway. However, the partially
A key factor in the past year has been the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. The initial economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound have been different for many countries. As the pandemic started in China, that
The Covid-19 pandemic has put the onus on health. Well-designed and well-serviced cities are a key piece of the puzzle. Smart cities aren’t just about robotics and futuristic design. To be truly smart, they also need to protect and promote
The sharp rise in inflation rates across many economies driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages has been a major concern for investors as economies opened up after pandemicrelated lockdowns. Among other effects, this may have an impact on
Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing
During the past quarter, markets have become increasingly concerned about a growth slowdown, partly due to a resurgence of COVID-19, and partly due to global supply chain disruptions, which also caused a rise in inflation. This in turn tightened global
Equity Outlook – October 2021: Equity markets are finding the transition to the post-pandemic landscape more challenging than one might have expected. While the Covid-19 pandemic is certainly not over, infection rates have been falling in most countries and high
Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van
Travel restrictions have remained in place in Asia, as markets in Europe and North America have gradually moved towards reopening over the summer. This took place even against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases. The justification behind …
Allocation views When faced with tough choices, we are inclined to limit the damage that is suffered. This is human instinct—a survival mechanism of sorts. It also brings to mind an old quip that portfolio managers use when considering outperforming
Our base case scenario for a return to normal is now Q4 2021, with a downside scenario in Q1 2022. At the beginning of the year, we created a Return to Normal Index to measure human activity data relative to
Climate change is back at the top of the risk ranking We must be willing to act now to prevent irreversible damage, in spite of the unknown variables and risks. Among experts, climate change has returned to the top spot
CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on
Met de snel wijzigende regelgeving moeten beleggers in Chinese aandelen een actieve beleggingsaanpak hanteren. Beleggers worden er regelmatig aan herinnerd hoe uniek China is. Meestal gaat het om positieve verrassingen, zoals de indrukwekkende opleving van de Chinese economie na …
It feels so good to celebrate the recovery from the Covid-19 recession. Economists in both the UK and US are turning out bright and buoyant forecasts for strong economic growth in both 2021 and 2022. Jobs are readily available and
As we emerge from the worst of the pandemic, the outlook remains challenging to decipher. Regional differences in COVID-19 vaccine availability and uptake rates are creating a two-speed economic recovery globally. Post-pandemic cynics and optimists will find data to support
Stocks rose for a seventh straight month during August amid ongoing optimism that the global economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 slump and as the US Federal Reserve indicated it won’t rush to …
The headline numbers tell a fairly grim story. Global dividend payouts fell 12.1%1 in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced economies to shut down for a prolonged period. The economic inactivity prompted many companies to go into …
Equities continue to march higher. Despite the coming taper, Fed policy remains accommodative, and a strong earnings outlook supports select stocks. Although COVID-19 hospitalizations have surged, last week investors focused on the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both
