Barometer: Laat de rally doorgaan April 2021 Ruime monetaire en fiscale stimulansen zouden de economie en de bedrijfswinsten een sterke duw in de rug moeten geven. Daarom blijven we de voorkeur geven aan cyclische aandelen. De wereldeconomie kent een sterke
Asian equities peaked twice in the first quarter amid optimism over the recovery in China, the prospect of improved relations between the new US administration and China, and the arrival of COVID-19 vaccines. Zhikai Chen, head of Asian equities, argues the outlook for much of the region remains positive, even after a valuation-related stumble.
Rembrandt’s masterpiece “The Night Watch” is the inspiration for a multidisciplinary research process at Capital Group. Everyone in the painting is looking in a different direction and it is this gathering of multiple perspectives that summarises our approach to gaining a deeper understanding of market disruptions, assessing the risks and evaluating the opportunities that arise during times of extreme crisis.
Valuations of risk assets have marked a pause in the face of a number of headwinds. In our view, valuations remain underpinned by ample central bank liquidity and the prospect, in the US, of further fiscal stimulus.
China’s success in quickly getting its economy back on track in the wake of the coronavirus will be studied closely by other regions hoping to achieve the same. The eurozone in particular, which faces the possibility of extended lockdowns as the European Union (EU) struggles with its …
6.45pm, 15 March 2021 – this is my appointment for a first dose of the Covid vaccine. I don’t want to give away my age, but by then approaching 25 million people will have received their first vaccine dose in the UK – close to half the adult population. I don’t know which vaccine I will get, but either way we are on our way. The grand reopening is coming.
When Covid-19 hit, many producers cut back production and drew down inventories as demand collapsed and the economic outlook was highly uncertain. While demand from cyclical end markets was hit hard, other end markets like …
The magnitude of change and disruption experienced around the globe in 2020 was remarkable on many levels. The coronavirus pandemic enveloped the world, prompting widespread upheaval to established patterns of conducting business, communication, travel, and the daily lives of people and communities. Amid the evolving …
Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …
We share the views of some of our portfolio managers and economists on navigating the equity and fixed income markets in the year ahead and beyond. They also share how the last year has influenced long-term developments in economic and market outlooks.
A year after the Covid-19 crisis struck, the US Congress approved the latest stimulus package, a massive $1.9 trillion plan representing 9% of GDP. It came only 3 months after a $900bn package was adopted.
Since our February update, the Return to Normal Index has ticked up only slightly (Figure 1). This is not surprising: large segments of the population are still not eligible to get a vaccination. But the good news is that Covid cases, hospitalisations and positivity rates continue to fall precipitously, and vaccine distribution is accelerating. Among the index subcomponents …
Webinar – Human: een gelukkig leven als beleggingsfocus Het is niet meer van deze tijd om van 9 tot 5 op kantoor te zitten en op je 65e met pensioen te gaan. De traditionele grenzen tussen de levensfases verdwijnen en
De kredietmarkt in opkomende landen heeft van nature een lagere blootstelling aan Covid-gevoelige sectoren (retail, luchtvaartmaatschappijen, horeca enz.) dan de ontwikkelde markten. Dat kan deels verklaren waarom het wanbetalingspercentage voor 2020 eindigde op 3,5 procent, ruim onder dat van de Amerikaanse high-yield …
Looking back over 2020 it was clearly an unusual year. The coronavirus pandemic and lockdowns have required considerable adaptation. The resilience and determination people have shown is remarkable.
Een jaar nadat de Covid-19-uitbraak wijdverspreide sociale en economische problemen veroorzaakte, komt Azië sterker uit de crisis en heeft het continent een grotere invloed op de wereld. Het economische zwaartepunt van de wereld verplaatst zich dan ook gestaag naar het …
By nature, the emerging credit market has lower exposure to Covidsensitive sectors (retail, airlines, hospitality, etc.) than its developed markets (DM) peers. This may partly explain why the 2020 default rate …
There is no shortage of challenges for long term investors. The strong performance of risk assets in 2020 has further compressed return expectations, and there exists ongoing concern about (i) how economies will emerge from the current crisis …
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as well as other measures of “normality” …
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on China’s gold market, leading to a 27% y-o-y drop in the nation’s gold demand in 2020. 1 One consequence of such weakness was the widest …
Sometimes in life, you find yourself “in between.” In between seasons, in between relationships, in between jobs. One season is ending, and the next has yet to begin. This is where markets are now.
The world in 2030 may seem a long way off, but at Capital Group we spend a lot of time thinking about the distant future. “Imagining life in 2030 is not a hypothetical for me,” notes Capital Group vice chairman Rob Lovelace, a sentiment echoed by many of his colleagues. “In the portfolios that I manage, my average holding period is about eight years, so I’m living that approach to investing.”
Markets continued to focus on hopes for a recovery rather than risks. The epidemic seems to be slowing in the United States and in United Kingdom. It appears to be under control in Europe.
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
The economic rebound slowed in the fourth quarter, after a strong rebound in the third quarter and a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from fiscal and monetary institutions. The positive vaccine …
The pandemic has unleashed turmoil across a wide range of industries. Food suffered more than most. Lockdowns and border closures disrupted the distribution of agricultural products and also led to severe labour shortages at food processing facilities.
Investors such as pension funds are increasingly seeking investments with a positive impact, and the surge in Covid-19 bond issuance this year indicates that fixed income is the asset class wellpositioned to deliver positive social outcomes.
The bond market sell-off: is this it? Has the pandemic shifted the pendulum for rates for good? For the past four decades, interest rates have relentlessly headed lower. Will Covid-19 turn that trend on its head, as it has done
Monetary policy may stay stable in the future China Chartbook – 4Q 2020 Macroeconomics Key views Regarding economic cycles, we expect demand to catch up with supply more quickly thanks to the multiplier effect. Consumption and manufacturing investment are expected
With the pandemic-induced shutdown of 2020 — which caused the worst recession since the Great Depression — behind us, solid growth is expected across major economies in 2021, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
The retail and hotel property sectors are bearing the brunt of the Covid disruption: weaker businesses are shuttering, vacancy rates are surging, rent collections are shrinking, property values are dropping, and commercial mortgage delinquencies are rising. Investors in these sectors are struggling to find a …
US government spending to help the economy cope with the dire consequences of COVID-19 looks set to reach record peacetime levels, but absent a boost to inflation, it is unlikely to set in motion a push for higher interest rates anytime soon. Senior US economist Mark Allan explains.
In the 2020 US election, Joe Biden won and that put a Democrat in the White House. What does a Democrat win mean for investors? And what do asset managers think the implications will be?
To what extent is the world really changing and what are the long-term investment implications? Responding to the transformative events and trends of the COVID-19 crisis, we sought the views of three …
The Future in Focus Pivoting from uncertainty to opportunity. The past 12 months have tested the world in ways that were hard to imagine last January. What started as a solid year for equities was turned upside down as the
Markets are entering the new year optimistic about the successful development of vaccines to combat the spread of COVID-19, seeing the news as a light at the end of the dark tunnel that was 2020. The extreme enthusiasm, however, has driven many markets to record highs, extending valuations and creating a rotation toward cheaper stocks in more cyclically …
Recent news about the COVID-19 pandemic has been worrying, with more contagious strains of the virus spreading internationally, rising contamination rates, and healthcare systems on the verge of being overwhelmed, particularly in the UK and the US.
With vaccines having been rolled out to combat the global pandemic in late-December, perhaps unsurprisingly, two wealthy, small nations – Israel and the UAE – are among the global leaders in deploying them to their domestic populations.
After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year. While the second Covid-19 wave, and the new variant, are weighing on recovery, once vaccinations bring the virus under control a degree of normality …
COVID-19: Data privacy risks and potential opportunities Social sensitivities around personal information held by external parties, particularly technology firms, has rapidly grown in recent years – and it’s a concern which has escalated in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Equities look set for a positive 2021: last year’s themes and secular change should persist with support coming from factors such as dovish monetary policies. However, risks linger, not least those related to the pandemic. Overall, this constellation makes for a stock pickers’ market, argues Guy Davies, CIO of Equities.
The other virus Column by Hendrik Tuch While Covid-19 continues to grab headlines, we should not disregard the economic effect of another virus which is steadily spreading across the globe. The African swine fever virus does not affect humans but
Municipal bond outlook: Silver lining to COVID storm clouds Commuter trains with seats to spare at rush hour. Vacant dorm rooms. And, of course, hospital wards, stretched to capacity. The effects of COVID-19 on all our lives have been plain
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain
Most investors have grasped that the extraordinarily loose monetary policies pursued by the leading central banks in 2020 have provided greater support than ever for financial asset prices. So now that the worldwide Covid vaccination campaign has stirred hopes of
Dark Before The Dawn Economic Outlook for 2021 Few will look back wistfully on 2020. COVD-19 did tremendous damage to public and economic health around the world. Unprecedented medical and fiscal responses established a recovery, but progress has been uneven
Global emerging markets: gaining momentum Despite its huge impact on health and wellbeing, the Covid-19 pandemic has done little to disrupt the powerful structural trends driving growth in emerging markets (EMs). We expect these trends to gain additional momentum in
A new investment order – 2021 global outlook We have entered a new investment order. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated profound shifts in how economies and societies operate. We see transformations across sustainability, inequality, geopolitics and macro policy. This is
2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not
