China Market Outlook 2023 KEY INSIGHTS Since the Party Congress, China has announced a significant easing in its zero-COVID restrictions and more measures to stabilize residential property, which is encouraging. China is at a different stage of its business cycle
Central & alternative scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon) Monthly update We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
With the book now closed on the 20th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), market watchers are busy analysing the various personnel and policy developments as they try to plot the next five years and beyond for …
Key takeaways Chinese equities have had a volatile 2022 so far as the country has had to navigate COVID-19 restrictions, property debt concerns and supply chain constraints among many other headwinds China is becoming an increasingly selective market that requires
Driving energy transition A global pandemic, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investment plans, rising inflation, green stimulus, and a focus on decarbonisation have seen the demand for infrastructure investments rise exponentially. While most investors immediately look to unlisted offerings, we believe they should
Only a few market events in an investor’s career really matter, and among the most important of all are superbubbles.1 These superbubbles are events unlike any others: while there are only a few in history for investors to study, they
2022 has been one of the most volatile periods in recent years for global equity and fixed income markets. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures, less accommodative central banks and COVID-19 restrictions
Inflation’s Causes, Prospects, and the Fed’s Toolkit Inflation is a simple consequence of a supply/demand imbalance. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise until balance is restored. The current surge in inflation has been caused mainly by blowout spending, supply chain
Summary High inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and the potential for recession are all global fears. However, for many emerging markets countries, navigating a recovery means taking a clear course of action: keep inflation under control at the risk of slowing
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
More displaced workers seem ready to come back into the labor force, but employers may need to watch their highly compensated “stayers.” One of the key economic side effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns was the wholesale departure of
Much of the world continues to move past the COVID-19 pandemic, but its remarkable effects on economies and policies remain top of mind as a new set of uncertainties enters the picture. Historic pandemic-era moves by both fiscal and monetary
De door Covid-19 geïnspireerde technologische revolutie in de gezondheidszorg kan nieuwe kansen creëren voor beleggers in private markten. Zelfs voordat Covid-19 zich over de hele wereld verspreidde, werd de mensheid geconfronteerd met een aantal ernstige gezondheidsbedreigingen. Vervuiling doodt meer dan
The Private Equity Market in 2021: The Allure of Growth In a record-breaking year, private equity investors made it plain that it’s not just about buyout anymore. By just about any measure, private equity set a remarkable new standard for
In brief Our proprietary analysis of trends among the 100 largest corporate pensions by assets found that the 2021 headline funded status is finally approaching full funding 13 years after the global financial crisis (GFC), with more than 70% of
The third year of the Covid crisis began with renewed concerns over the interplay between surging inflation and an economic recovery contingent on concerns over policy tightening, a trend further accelerated by the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. While we collectively gather ourselves
Deze DNB analyse is een vervolg op een eerdere publicatie, waarin een inschatting werd gemaakt van de financiële positie van het Nederlandse Midden en Kleinbedrijf (mkb) begin 2021 (de Winter en Volkerink, 2021). Deze analyse verdiept de eerdere studie door
While the word inflation again dominated markets over Q4 2021, a new word rivalled it by December: Omicron. This Covid-19 mutation was identified by South African scientists and soon it was spreading fast. The world flew into a panic, banning
At the end of 2021, US commercial property investors were contemplating prospects for an easing Covid -19 threat in the year ahead along with still-strong economic growth accompanied by tightening interest rates to quell inflation. As often happens, it’s not
After a relatively limited election cycle across Latin America (Latam) in 2020, 2021 will surely go down in history as one of the most dramatic years for the region. Shockwaves were created in numerous elections and traditional parties saw their
In spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2021, European equity markets were buoyant, recovering well from the extreme volatility of the previous year. The S&P Europe 350® was up 26.1% in 2021.
Global Asset Allocation Views In brief Tighter monetary policy, the war in Ukraine, and lingering inflation combine to put the brakes on global growth. We do not expect a global recession in 2022 but see European growth slowing to near
US CRE Market Insights – March 2022: Recently released fourth quarter and annual 2021 US CRE investment performance data show a continuing pattern of feast or famine across the four major sectors. Feasting in the industrial sector has produced a
Market review: Refreshed regulatory uncertainties and lingering geopolitical tensions, coupled with weaker-thanexpected February macro data, provoked the biggest weekly see-off of offshore Chinese equities since the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Growth names slumped by the most,
Major political economy shifts often coincide with wars or preparation of wars. They do not simply affect how resources are affected to defend against external threats. They also shape priorities on civil spending to maximize internal social cohesion. Building a
De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft tot ernstig tumult op de markten geleid. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. Net wanneer de Covid-19-crisis begint af te nemen, breekt er een conflict in Oekraïne uit. De vraag die
The pandemic might have slowed global growth, but momentum around ESG investing continues to gather pace – and 2022 is undoubtedly going to be another busy year. Explore the issues and trends that we predict will define ESG investing this
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since
As the U.S. economy climbs out of the pandemic doldrums, U.S. housing lays a solid foundation for sustainable value creation While the U.S. economy spent much of 2021 battling its way out of the pandemic-induced doldrums, the U.S. housing market
Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing
Emerging market debt (in USD terms) experienced a tepid start to 2022 as a sell-off in US Treasuries put pressure on a range of risk assets. This included EM local rates, depressing both local and hard currency returns. Concerns around
De metaverse biedt een nieuwe wereld van beleggingskansen op het gebied van sociale media, ecommerce, leren op afstand en werken. Zin om op een zwoele zomerdag met een oude vriend aan de oevers van de Seine te gaan lopen? Misschien
The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
“The hawkish December FOMC minutes released in early January suggested rate hikes ‘sooner or at a faster pace’ than previously expected, while also raising forecasted inflation to 2.6% in 2022 — an increase over the 2.2% projected last September. There
De Covid-19-pandemie heeft onze aandacht gevestigd op het belang van gezondheid. Goed ontworpen en goed onderhouden steden spelen daarin een belangrijke rol. Bij slimme steden gaat het niet alleen om robotica en futuristisch design. Om echt slim te zijn, moeten
Following on the heels of a tumultuous year, 2021 featured both a recovery and new risks as the world continued to grapple with the COVID-19 pandemic. The S&P Municipal Bond Index finished 2021 with a gain of 1.77% as demand
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Peak fiscal policy support, and therefore peak real GDP growth, was likely realized in 2021, and the global economy now appears to be rapidly progressing toward late-cycle dynamics. Monetary policy in most regions has shifted course toward
2022 Global Market Outlook: Despite headwinds from the pandemic, the global economic recovery still appears on track – but inflation risks have risen. In 2022, investors will need to watch what fiscal and monetary policymakers do to try to stem price pressures while
One year after the discovery of anti-Covid vaccines, financial markets will soon have left (or slowly leaving) the pandemic behind. The economy has not. This is demonstrated by the numerous disruptions among supply chains, on labour markets or on commodity
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Asset-allocatie: De omikronvariant zal het herstel waarschijnlijk niet doen ontsporen Een nieuw
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …
For hundreds of millions of people, March 2020 was a watershed. Within days, the Covid19 pandemic had triggered powerful shockwaves across the world. Entire populations were put under strict lockdown measures almost overnight. Planes were grounded; and restaurants, museums and
Energy: Most of the companies that survived the initial shocks last year are now leaner with lower cost profiles, lower debt leverage metrics, lower capital spending, and have exhibited flexibility around shareholder distributions, all of which has contributed to stronger
Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the
KEY TAKEAWAYS The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months. As a result and
