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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 19.Jan 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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Playbook for a shifting economic landscape

Playbook for a shifting economic landscape

🕔14:58, 18.Jan 2022

2022 Global Market Outlook: Despite headwinds from the pandemic, the global economic recovery still appears on track – but inflation risks have risen. In 2022, investors will need to watch what fiscal and monetary policymakers do to try to stem price pressures while

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Investment views for uncertain times

Investment views for uncertain times

🕔11:57, 18.Jan 2022

One year after the discovery of anti-Covid vaccines, financial markets will soon have left (or slowly leaving) the pandemic behind. The economy has not.  This is demonstrated by the numerous disruptions among supply chains, on labour markets or on commodity

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Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

🕔11:49, 18.Jan 2022

De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Asset-allocatie: De omikronvariant zal het herstel waarschijnlijk niet doen ontsporen Een nieuw

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Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

🕔09:50, 17.Jan 2022

De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …

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Omicron variant: Fixed Income sector impacts

Omicron variant: Fixed Income sector impacts

🕔14:21, 14.Jan 2022

Energy: Most of the companies that survived the initial shocks last year are now leaner with lower cost profiles, lower debt leverage metrics, lower capital spending, and have exhibited flexibility around shareholder distributions, all of which has contributed to stronger

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EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

🕔10:52, 12.Jan 2022

The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer

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Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

🕔16:34, 10.Jan 2022

Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the

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2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 7.Jan 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

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Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

Preparing for an inflection in monetary policies looking ahead

🕔11:26, 4.Jan 2022

MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration

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China: The factors behind weaker growth in 2022

China: The factors behind weaker growth in 2022

🕔10:43, 3.Jan 2022

KEY TAKEAWAYS The Chinese economy is facing headwinds leading into 2022, including: 1) Ongoing regulatory crackdown; 2) Exposure to COVID outbreaks; 3) A slump in the housing sector; and 4) Power shortages over the winter months. As a result and

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It is time to find out which companies have been swimming naked

It is time to find out which companies have been swimming naked

🕔12:10, 31.Dec 2021

A little bit over a year ago, President Biden was elected, and the cyclical recovery rally kicked into gear. Low-quality stocks (lower profitability, higher debt) that had particularly suffered earlier in 2020, benefitted the most and outperformed all other parts

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Will the renminbi surprise the market?

Will the renminbi surprise the market?

🕔12:11, 29.Dec 2021

Chi Time China’s exchange rate policy favours a stable renminbi. However, the positive factors that have boosted the Chinese currency are turning negative, leading to some views that the renminbi should weaken in 2022. They include an expected decline in

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Inflatie – Terug naar normaal?

Inflatie – Terug naar normaal?

🕔12:13, 28.Dec 2021

Als er één economisch onderwerp de krantenkoppen beheerst, dan is het wel inflatie. De media staan er vol van. En terecht. We moeten terug naar begin jaren tachtig om soortgelijke hoge percentages te zien. In dit artikel zullen we ingaan

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Receding pressure on supply

Receding pressure on supply

🕔08:41, 27.Dec 2021

Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has

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Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

🕔16:52, 22.Dec 2021

Multi-asset market outlook  While inflation in the US hit a new high in November, stagflationary fears have substantially eased. The pick-up in economic momentum visible in the employment numbers and the purchasing manager’s survey have both eased growth concerns. Of

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A bumpy ride higher for equities

A bumpy ride higher for equities

🕔10:00, 21.Dec 2021

We entered 2021 with the prospect of new vaccines taming Covid-19 and that effort proved transformative in developed markets. The coronavirus persists, however, and its impact will continue to be felt in 2022 as the pandemic plays out. New therapies

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2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

🕔16:25, 16.Dec 2021

From pandemic to endemic  IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases

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There Arose Such A Clatter

There Arose Such A Clatter

🕔15:45, 16.Dec 2021

Just one year ago, COVID-19 vaccines were not yet approved, gatherings were restricted amid surging cases, many schools and offices remained closed, and thoughts of moving past the pandemic seemed as realistic as visions of sugar plums. The transformation seen

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Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q3 2021

Global Sustainable Outcomes – Q3 2021

🕔11:39, 16.Dec 2021

We’re now seeing the economic consequences of shutting down the world and then hitting the restart button. As most economies re-open, demand for goods and services has largely recovered to pre-Covid levels, however supply chains have remained under stress. What

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Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

🕔08:55, 16.Dec 2021

Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht

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Inflation: No time to panic

Inflation: No time to panic

🕔14:36, 15.Dec 2021

Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change. As we move towards economic recovery

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Reshaping the European Union Spotlight

Reshaping the European Union Spotlight

🕔12:30, 15.Dec 2021

The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …

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Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Coincides with Omicron Fears

Fed’s Hawkish Pivot Coincides with Omicron Fears

🕔08:54, 15.Dec 2021

Volatility returned to markets as Omicron, a new Covid-19 variant, spooked investors. With 50 alterations, including 33 on the spike protein, markets were left scrambling for clues regarding its contagiousness, its lethality and the efficacy of vaccines and treatments. Several

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Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

Is the sun setting on the outperformance of banks?

🕔15:16, 14.Dec 2021

The economic recovery has been thrown into jeopardy by the emergence of the new Omicron variant of Covid-19. However, we think that it is unlikely to completely derail the cycle and should allow central banks to tighten monetary policy in

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Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

🕔12:47, 14.Dec 2021

Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy

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It’s been a turbulent November.

It’s been a turbulent November.

🕔16:56, 7.Dec 2021

Market updates: The week saw an increase of cases of the newly identified Omicron variant of Covid-19 observed in South Africa and elsewhere. Though the week cases have been seen across Europe, Asia and in the US, causing fears of

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China’s Zero-Covid policy – timing, benefits, costs and impact

China’s Zero-Covid policy – timing, benefits, costs and impact

🕔12:23, 6.Dec 2021

Chi Time As more countries opt for ‘living with Covid’, China is sticking with a ‘zero Covid’ policy (ZCP) that has brought significant benefits, although not without costs. China may soon be approaching a turning point where the costs outweigh

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Swapshop.

Swapshop.

🕔10:22, 1.Dec 2021

Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will

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Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

🕔10:53, 29.Nov 2021

As the US Covid-19 shutdown took hold in March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moved quickly and decisively to loosen interest rates and provide liquidity to counter the recessionary effects of the virus. On March 3, 2020, the Federal

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Long Covid

Long Covid

🕔12:39, 22.Nov 2021

In the short term, we are concerned that confidence in the growth outlook will wane, particularly given the recently weaker data in China, ‘stagflation risk’, and an earnings season dominated by the ‘margins squeeze’ story VIEWS & ASSET ALLOCATION Visibility

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The battle against stagflation

The battle against stagflation

🕔00:37, 17.Nov 2021

With the benefits of public sector largesse of 2020 and 2021 now fading, economies around the world are increasingly reliant on private sector demand and an increase in global trade to continue the pandemic-era expansion currently underway. However, the partially

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Long-term outlook: World macro economy

Long-term outlook: World macro economy

🕔10:33, 12.Nov 2021

A key factor in the past year has been the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. The initial economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound have been different for many countries. As the pandemic started in China, that

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Healthy cities

Healthy cities

🕔08:22, 12.Nov 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic has put the onus on health. Well-designed and well-serviced cities are a key piece of the puzzle. Smart cities aren’t just about robotics and futuristic design. To be truly smart, they also need to protect and promote

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On corporate margins and inflation rates

On corporate margins and inflation rates

🕔16:14, 4.Nov 2021

The sharp rise in inflation rates across many economies driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages has been a major concern for investors as economies opened up after pandemicrelated lockdowns. Among other effects, this may have an impact on

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Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

🕔10:17, 4.Nov 2021

Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing

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Can EM Narrow the Gap?

Can EM Narrow the Gap?

🕔08:20, 4.Nov 2021

During the past quarter, markets have become increasingly concerned about a growth slowdown, partly due to a resurgence of COVID-19, and partly due to global supply chain disruptions, which also caused a rise in inflation. This in turn tightened global

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A tricky transition

A tricky transition

🕔16:38, 1.Nov 2021

Equity Outlook – October 2021: Equity markets are finding the transition to the post-pandemic landscape more challenging than one might have expected. While the Covid-19 pandemic is certainly not over, infection rates have been falling in most countries and high

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De strijd tegen Delta

De strijd tegen Delta

🕔11:00, 28.Oct 2021

Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van

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Asia: Long road to reopening amidst stark regional divergences

Asia: Long road to reopening amidst stark regional divergences

🕔10:46, 22.Oct 2021

Travel restrictions have remained in place in Asia, as markets in Europe and North America have gradually moved towards reopening over the summer. This took place even against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases. The justification behind …

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Burning US$5 bills

Burning US$5 bills

🕔08:03, 21.Oct 2021

Allocation views When faced with tough choices, we are inclined to limit the damage that is suffered. This is human instinct—a survival mechanism of sorts. It also brings to mind an old quip that portfolio managers use when considering outperforming

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Return to Normal Index: Updated base case and downside scenarios

Return to Normal Index: Updated base case and downside scenarios

🕔07:09, 13.Oct 2021

Our base case scenario for a return to normal is now Q4 2021, with a downside scenario in Q1 2022.  At the beginning of the year, we created a Return to Normal Index to measure human activity data relative to

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AXA Future Risks Report 2021

AXA Future Risks Report 2021

🕔15:23, 12.Oct 2021

Climate change is back at the top of the risk ranking We must be willing to act now to prevent irreversible damage, in spite of the unknown variables and risks. Among experts, climate change has returned to the top spot

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Mounting risks, buying time

Mounting risks, buying time

🕔17:10, 11.Oct 2021

CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on

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De voordelen van actief beleggen in China zijn groter geworden

De voordelen van actief beleggen in China zijn groter geworden

🕔10:04, 29.Sep 2021

Met de snel wijzigende regelgeving moeten beleggers in Chinese aandelen een actieve beleggingsaanpak hanteren. Beleggers worden er regelmatig aan herinnerd hoe uniek China is. Meestal gaat het om positieve verrassingen, zoals de indrukwekkende opleving van de Chinese economie na …

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US CRE Market Insights – September 2021

US CRE Market Insights – September 2021

🕔09:33, 15.Sep 2021

It feels so good to celebrate the recovery from the Covid-19 recession. Economists in both the UK and US are turning out bright and buoyant forecasts for strong economic growth in both 2021 and 2022. Jobs are readily available and

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Newsletter – Autumn 2021

Newsletter – Autumn 2021

🕔15:15, 13.Sep 2021

As we emerge from the worst of the pandemic, the outlook remains challenging to decipher. Regional differences in COVID-19 vaccine availability and uptake rates are creating a two-speed economic recovery globally. Post-pandemic cynics and optimists will find data to support

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STOXX Monthly Index News – August

STOXX Monthly Index News – August

🕔11:06, 7.Sep 2021

Stocks rose for a seventh straight month during August amid ongoing optimism that the global economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 slump and as the US Federal Reserve indicated it won’t rush to …

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Are emerging markets on the cusp of a dividend boom?

Are emerging markets on the cusp of a dividend boom?

🕔09:32, 7.Sep 2021

The headline numbers tell a fairly grim story. Global dividend payouts fell 12.1%1 in 2020 as the COVID-19 pandemic forced economies to shut down for a prolonged period. The economic inactivity prompted many companies to go into …

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Markets take the Fed’s tapering plans in stride

Markets take the Fed’s tapering plans in stride

🕔13:47, 6.Sep 2021

Equities continue to march higher. Despite the coming taper, Fed policy remains accommodative, and a strong earnings outlook supports select stocks. Although COVID-19 hospitalizations have surged, last week investors focused on the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both

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