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Tag "credit"

A farewell to negative yields?

A farewell to negative yields?

🕔11:30, 8.Oct 2021

In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation

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Regulatory Actions in China: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

Regulatory Actions in China: Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Gain

🕔16:20, 7.Oct 2021

China’s regulatory actions, driven by Beijing’s financial, security, and social objectives, have injected volatility into the credit market over the past year. Key themes such as the mantra of housing for living in, not speculation; reducing the education cost burden

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Jolly green giant Gilt.

Jolly green giant Gilt.

🕔11:05, 5.Oct 2021

The ‘excitement’ of an FOMC meeting, shenanigans at Evergrande, revised forecasts from the OECD and the German general election led to a rise in yields last week (see chart of the week). The US Federal Reserve presented a more hawkish

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Supply constraints add to inflation angst

Supply constraints add to inflation angst

🕔20:03, 29.Sep 2021

Theme of the month: EU Fit for 55 In July, the EU announced “Fit for 55” – a suite of measures to deliver a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 from 1990 levels. It included an enhancement of the

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When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Really low real yields.

Really low real yields.

🕔14:52, 9.Sep 2021

In Credit  AUGUST 2021 As we start a new month, we can reflect on another better week and month for core government bonds. US yields fell by around 25bps in July. The fall was led by declining real yields, which

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Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

Dimly aware of a certain unease in the air

🕔15:20, 30.Aug 2021

We borrowed a line from a Pink Floyd song for this week’s title, which seemed to sum up the mood in markets last week. The rise in cases of the delta variant of Covid brings fears of a pause in

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Blending Quant and Fundamental Portfolio Construction Inputs

Blending Quant and Fundamental Portfolio Construction Inputs

🕔14:05, 30.Aug 2021

Because our multi‑sector strategies have the flexibility to invest across many fixed income sectors, we use a range of quantitative and fundamental inputs to inform our sector allocations. The sector strategy advisory group (SSAG) model is one of these tools.

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Another quiet week

Another quiet week

🕔10:34, 24.Aug 2021

In Credit: Bond markets continue to lack much direction. It was inflation week in the US. As expected, the headline rate of consumer price inflation came in at 5.4%, unchanged from the prior month (see Chart of the week), while

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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Searching for direction.

Searching for direction.

🕔11:45, 17.Aug 2021

In Credit: Government bonds seem to be struggling for direction amid a summer lull and after a period of strong performance. US 10-year yields have fallen from around 1.75% at the end of March 2021 to around 1.29% at the

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MAC en Absolute Return Fixed Income: beter samen?

MAC en Absolute Return Fixed Income: beter samen?

🕔11:38, 20.Jul 2021

Multi Asset Credit (MAC) en Absolute Return Fixed Income-strategieën concurreren al lang om de aandacht van beleggers. Maar is het zinvol de ene optie te kiezen boven de andere? Wanneer de rentevoeten zeer laag of zelfs negatief zijn, zijn positieve

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Mid-Cycle Investing: Time to Get Selective

Mid-Cycle Investing: Time to Get Selective

🕔09:21, 20.Jul 2021

SUMMARY The global economy is in a mid-cycle expansion, following peaks in policy support and growth, and what is likely a transitory spike in inflation. We expect global growth to moderate to a still abovetrend pace in 2022. Growth-oriented assets, such as equities

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‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

🕔17:01, 21.Jun 2021

Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of

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Steady as she goes…

Steady as she goes…

🕔11:54, 14.Jun 2021

In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit

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Breaking Bad.

Breaking Bad.

🕔08:28, 28.May 2021

In Credit: The key theme this year for markets has been the trend higher in inflation expectations and the question of whether the US economy is overheating. This has prompted a rise in government bond yields, with German and UK

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‘Brass in pocket’

‘Brass in pocket’

🕔12:58, 19.May 2021

In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that

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All standstill.

All standstill.

🕔08:35, 30.Apr 2021

In Credit: Government bond yields were little moved last week. The benchmark US 10-year note ended the week with a yield of 1.58%, barely moved from a week earlier. Inflation expectations, which have risen materially in the last year and

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Great Expectations.

Great Expectations.

🕔11:21, 27.Apr 2021

In Credit  Inflation arrived in the US last week. There was also a bumper crop of strong economic data releases. This had been largely expected and remarkably yields fell to the lowest level in a month with the US 10-year

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Calm after a storm.

Calm after a storm.

🕔15:28, 16.Apr 2021

There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.

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Diversifying Credit Portfolios With Multi-Factor Strategies

Diversifying Credit Portfolios With Multi-Factor Strategies

🕔15:15, 9.Apr 2021

The past decade has seen the use of multi-factor investing in corporate bonds increase significantly. Easier access to corporate bond data along and a growing body of research has enabled managers to develop robust factor-based …

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It’s my party and I’ll wait until I want to..

It’s my party and I’ll wait until I want to..

🕔11:45, 31.Mar 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and curves were flatter after a volatile week which, at one point, saw US and Europe diverge with US treasuries bear steepening while European government bonds experienced a bull flattening on Wednesday. Markets were caught between inflation concerns …

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Inflated inflation fears

Inflated inflation fears

🕔13:14, 24.Mar 2021

For bond markets, this year has been all about rising inflation expectations and more recently real yields. This has pushed yields higher and dented total returns for areas of fixed income with higher levels of interest rate risk. The effect such moves have depends on the interest rate sensitivity (duration) of the …

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Why Credit Investors Need to Become Active Duration Managers

Why Credit Investors Need to Become Active Duration Managers

🕔15:34, 23.Mar 2021

Why Credit Investors Need to Become Active Duration Managers The importance of duration for credit performance and five ways to improve it.  Credit investors typically pay little attention to duration, seeing themselves primarily as bottom‑up investors who specialize in sector and

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Back to work

Back to work

🕔14:48, 19.Mar 2021

As mentioned previously, this trend was borne out of rising inflation expectations and augmented by a nudge higher in real rates. If this latter rate is the key discount rate for risk markets such as equities, it helps explains why this market has been …

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Podcast: The US economy and the USD credit market are in a stronger position than the euro area

Podcast: The US economy and the USD credit market are in a stronger position than the euro area

🕔12:42, 18.Mar 2021

A pick-up vs. EUR-denominated investment grade bonds of +110 bps, investors lock-in a higher yield in the USD market as hedging costs to EUR remain low …

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Unearthing opportunities among EM corporate debt issuers

Unearthing opportunities among EM corporate debt issuers

🕔10:27, 8.Mar 2021

By nature, the emerging credit market has lower exposure to Covidsensitive sectors (retail, airlines, hospitality, etc.) than its developed markets (DM) peers. This may partly explain why the 2020 default rate …

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Reflating a bubble

Reflating a bubble

🕔11:18, 19.Feb 2021

It was Presidents Day in the US on 15 February and we imagine ex-President Trump will be celebrating more than most after being acquitted in his second impeachment vote. There was, however, less to celebrate in government bond land.

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Less interest, in negative interest rates.

Less interest, in negative interest rates.

🕔07:43, 15.Feb 2021

Less interest, in negative interest rates.  Markets at a glance – 8 February 2021  It was a game of two halves for macro markets last week. Italy won in the end, with the UK coming last. For Italian bonds, spreads

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‘Blue Wave’ and Crypto in our Best Read last week

‘Blue Wave’ and Crypto in our Best Read last week

🕔14:25, 11.Feb 2021

Columbia Threadneedle Investments provides readers with an in-depth discussion of fixed income assets. One important takeaway is the Biden presidency causing rising inflation expectations.

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End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

🕔08:37, 29.Jan 2021

The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …

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The Future in Focus

The Future in Focus

🕔13:24, 28.Jan 2021

The Future in Focus Pivoting from uncertainty to opportunity.  The past 12 months have tested the world in ways that were hard to imagine last January. What started as a solid year for equities was turned upside down as the

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“Turning to the tasks of our time”

“Turning to the tasks of our time”

🕔10:45, 27.Jan 2021

“Turning to the tasks of our time”  Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States  Markets at a glance  President Biden kicked off his new term with a flurry of executive orders and directives (30) in his first three days

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Euro high yield: the opportunity today

Euro high yield: the opportunity today

🕔09:25, 20.Jan 2021

Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European

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Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally

Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally

🕔15:46, 18.Jan 2021

Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would

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US bond yields buoyed by the ‘Blue Wave’

US bond yields buoyed by the ‘Blue Wave’

🕔21:05, 13.Jan 2021

US bond yields buoyed by the ‘Blue Wave’ In Credit  As the US Political landscape evolves (after Democratic Party victories in Georgia) and the risk of increased (bond-financed) government spending grows, US bond yields have also risen materially. This is

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Here we go again

Here we go again

🕔10:21, 7.Jan 2021

In Credit – Here we go again 4 January 2021 It was a quiet end to the year for government bond markets with yields little changed. The resolution of the Brexit negotiations was widely anticipated and there was little impact

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Investing in EM corporate bonds for income and diversification

Investing in EM corporate bonds for income and diversification

🕔16:00, 6.Jan 2021

Using credit in asset allocation  Investing in EM corporate bonds for income and diversification  In asset allocation, emerging market (EM) corporate bonds can be used to help investors achieve a range of objectives, in a range of market environments. In

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Uncovering Opportunities in Noninvestment‑Grade Credit

Uncovering Opportunities in Noninvestment‑Grade Credit

🕔09:50, 18.Dec 2020

T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Credit analysis can reveal value in bank loans, high yield bonds High yield bonds and bank loans (or leveraged loans) represent two forms of noninvestment‑grade credit exposure. Both sectors have various strengths and risks

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Credit investing roadmap for 2021

Credit investing roadmap for 2021

🕔13:02, 14.Dec 2020

Outlook If, like a modern-day Rip Van Winkle, you had magically slept through 2020 and then looked at the year-to-date credit returns, you might have thought: “Quite a boring year, then”. Dramatic selloffs have been largely retraced by equally dramatic

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Elections and a vaccine: Implications for fixed income investors

Elections and a vaccine: Implications for fixed income investors

🕔14:50, 11.Dec 2020

Investment Insights   The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus

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‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

🕔12:59, 10.Dec 2020

In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has

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T. Rowe Price – Webinar – 2021 Global Credit Outlook with Justin Gerbereux

🕔14:00, 8.Dec 2020

Webinar – 2021 Global Credit Outlook with Justin Gerbereux Not since the Global Financial Crisis have corporate bond investors faced such a rollercoaster of selloffs and rallies, not to mention a wave of ‘fallen angels’ and credit defaults. As we

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Capital Group Global High Income Opportunities (LUX) (GHIO) Q&A with Rob Neithart

Capital Group Global High Income Opportunities (LUX) (GHIO) Q&A with Rob Neithart

🕔12:45, 2.Dec 2020

Q&A with Rob Neithart, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Based in Los Angeles We have experienced an extraordinary year so far. How did GHIO navigate the volatility and what have you done in the portfolio since then? Going into the period of

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More fallen angels ahead in Europe?

More fallen angels ahead in Europe?

🕔15:00, 16.Nov 2020

“Global default rates are rising and likely to continue into 2021. But we think the full impact may be muted by the significant fiscal and monetary intervention seen from governments and central banks.”

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Flash Update – Investment Views

Flash Update – Investment Views

🕔14:59, 12.Nov 2020

Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income For Professional Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors as defined by the relevant laws  Key takeaways: ■ The outcome of the US elections has reduced hopes of a large fiscal package being passed next

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COVID-19 has transformed the US high yield opportunity set

COVID-19 has transformed the US high yield opportunity set

🕔07:46, 20.Oct 2020

Credit Outlook  Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This

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CIO autumn update: Endurance test

CIO autumn update: Endurance test

🕔07:36, 25.Sep 2020

Change may be the only constant over the coming months. We believe investors will need to be dynamic in striking a balance between managing risks and seizing opportunities. Since we published our last outlook, many of the dynamics we observed

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Strategic credit: a nimble approach for an uncertain world

Strategic credit: a nimble approach for an uncertain world

🕔11:03, 24.Sep 2020

Active Credit Allocation in Portfolios Jon Mawby discusses the advantages of active credit allocation in portfolios now that government bonds no longer serve their traditional purpose. Governments have launched massive efforts to underpin their economies in the wake of the

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