“Turning to the tasks of our time” Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States Markets at a glance President Biden kicked off his new term with a flurry of executive orders and directives (30) in his first three days
Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European
Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would
US bond yields buoyed by the ‘Blue Wave’ In Credit As the US Political landscape evolves (after Democratic Party victories in Georgia) and the risk of increased (bond-financed) government spending grows, US bond yields have also risen materially. This is
In Credit – Here we go again 4 January 2021 It was a quiet end to the year for government bond markets with yields little changed. The resolution of the Brexit negotiations was widely anticipated and there was little impact
Using credit in asset allocation Investing in EM corporate bonds for income and diversification In asset allocation, emerging market (EM) corporate bonds can be used to help investors achieve a range of objectives, in a range of market environments. In
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Credit analysis can reveal value in bank loans, high yield bonds High yield bonds and bank loans (or leveraged loans) represent two forms of noninvestment‑grade credit exposure. Both sectors have various strengths and risks
Outlook If, like a modern-day Rip Van Winkle, you had magically slept through 2020 and then looked at the year-to-date credit returns, you might have thought: “Quite a boring year, then”. Dramatic selloffs have been largely retraced by equally dramatic
Investment Insights The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus
In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has
Webinar – 2021 Global Credit Outlook with Justin Gerbereux Not since the Global Financial Crisis have corporate bond investors faced such a rollercoaster of selloffs and rallies, not to mention a wave of ‘fallen angels’ and credit defaults. As we
Q&A with Rob Neithart, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager Based in Los Angeles We have experienced an extraordinary year so far. How did GHIO navigate the volatility and what have you done in the portfolio since then? Going into the period of
“Global default rates are rising and likely to continue into 2021. But we think the full impact may be muted by the significant fiscal and monetary intervention seen from governments and central banks.”
Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income For Professional Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors as defined by the relevant laws Key takeaways: ■ The outcome of the US elections has reduced hopes of a large fiscal package being passed next
Credit Outlook Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This
Change may be the only constant over the coming months. We believe investors will need to be dynamic in striking a balance between managing risks and seizing opportunities. Since we published our last outlook, many of the dynamics we observed
Active Credit Allocation in Portfolios Jon Mawby discusses the advantages of active credit allocation in portfolios now that government bonds no longer serve their traditional purpose. Governments have launched massive efforts to underpin their economies in the wake of the
Over the last five months, market participants have been following the COVID-19 pandemic as it has evolved into a global health crisis and forced various forms of lockdown across the world. The next 12-18 months …
Winners vs. Losers in Credit The extraordinary monetary and fiscal policy measures enacted during the pandemic have added further impetus to the trend of rising corporate debt and less stringent lending standards that began in the aftermath of the global
Weekly commentary Markets have rallied sharply from their virus lows, driven by the policy revolution and economic restart. Tighter valuations increase the risk of volatility, particularly ahead of divisive U.S. elections. Last week’s equity selloff illustrates this. Against …
Markets reacted violently as global economies adopted shelter-in-place policies to combat the spread of Covid-19 earlier this year. Corporate bond credit spreads (or risk premiums), driven by heightened uncertainty and revenue pressure, widened dramatically to reflect the increased risk …
Markets reacted violently as global economies adopted shelter-in-place policies to combat the spread of Covid-19 earlier this year. Corporate bond credit spreads (or risk premiums), driven by heightened uncertainty and revenue pressure, widened dramatically to reflect the increased risk of
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as local-currency debt. We believe the market has entered a new phase following the broad-based recovery in the second quarter that will
In Credit Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as …
Market Review It’s been a very strong quarter for equities and credit as central banks and governments provided enormous amounts of stimulus and economies started to reopen. Despite the strong rebound in risk …
Weekly commentary We recently moved to a strategic overweight on credit after being underweight for the past year. Cheaper valuations compensated for the risk of corporate defaults and downgrades in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, in our view. We
H2 Outlook As we emerge from the Covid-19 shock, we expect market developments to eventually become more complex. In the next few weeks, the easy part of a post Covid-19 recovery will be over and by then credit and equity
Credit Continuum Monetary stimulus measures and high levels of cash continue to support spread tightening between now and year end. The rally in credit markets has continued in May given Federal Reserve and European Central Bank support measures and the
In Credit It was a week of data releases and an opportunity to get a glimpse as to whether an economic recovery is underway. The evidence would so far suggest that this …
Key points The gap between the US and Europe on the pandemic front is getting wider – the US responds to market wobbles by more stimulus announcements. We explore the “feedback loop” between state guarantees to business loans and fiscal
At Janus Henderson we have long seen asset-backed securities (ABS) as a valuable component of diverse multi-sector credit portfolios; typically either …
For corporate pension funds, increased exposure to long credit could help: Close the spread duration gap: European corporate pension funds are generally underweight spread duration versus their liabilities. In the current market environment, wider spreads offer an opportunity to invest
Webinar – ESG & Credit: How to Mitigate Both Financial And Climate Risks Institutional investors are increasingly looking at making their significant fixed income allocations part of their sustainable investing strategy. But whilst the recent market turmoil highlights the need
Americas CIO View The severe economic damage of widespread non-essential activity lockdowns to U.S. and European economies is moving behind, but we expect a slow recovery with elevated …
In Credit Core government bond yields were little moved last week. Covid-19 news continues to …
White Paper Rising Stars in a New (Fed) World Recent unprecedented action by central banks, notably the Federal Reserve on April 9th, has helped markets recover meaningfully. This has caused many investors to wonder, “What do we do next?” or,
Credit Markets Weekly Sovereign Austria, Sub-Sovereigns & Agencies, Financials & Covered Bonds, Corporate Bonds Earnings season demonstrates impact of COVID-19 pandemic The European reporting season is drawing to a close: More than 80% of the …
Research & Strategy Insights Flows of new bank loans to the corporate sector reached a record high in March in the Euro area, and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Bank Lending Survey suggests that credit institutions are planning to ease
The breadth of the economic shutdowns to contain the spread of the coronavirus will affect nearly every sector across the global corporate universe—some positively, but most negatively. Therefore, credit selection will be paramount to generating positive alpha going forward. Thorough,
Monthly Investment Strategy Key points As some capacity is being re-created in healthcare systems, exiting lockdown by mid-May looks doable. We think it will be a subdued rebound though, and economic policy will need to help “for the long haul”.
Webinar – The latest views of our experts We have seen dual shocks to the oil market—a demand shock from the coronavirus and a supply shock from the collapse in talks between OPEC and Russia that prompted production increases several
Webinar – The future of credit markets in a highly indebted world Credit markets will remain challenged amid market volatility from COVID 19. As the number of COVID 19 cases have mounted, a supply and demand shock has impacted much
KEY POINTS COVID-19, declared by WHO as a global pandemic in March after rapidly spreading to Europe then to North America, triggered historic movements in the fixed income markets and put an end to the record long U.S. bull market.
In Credit Government bond prices were little moved in the last week after a ‘helter skelter’ few weeks. In terms of data the Eurozone PMI was very weak (less than 30). This was led lower by an especially low print
With the coronavirus having spread throughout Italy, and with the country’s already worrying debt profile, Kames Capital’s Nick Chatters asks how the ratings agencies will view its credit rating which is already hovering perilously close to junk status. Fixed income
Macro & Market Commentary We believe the expansion phase of the credit cycle is over. Several countries are now heading into downturns, largely because of the demand shock from COVID-19. However, we have been impressed by the global monetary and
Introduction The triumph of free markets following the collapse of command economies from 1989 to 1991 made clear which economic system produced superior socioeconomic outcomes – at least, so far as the outcomes could be observed anecdotally. By the 1990s,
The ultimate public health costs and economic impact of Covid-19 are at this time unknown. Public health responses have weighed the human cost of intensive care units being overwhelmed and the number of preventable deaths exploding against the jump higher
Key Takeaways We believe it is important for investors to understand the differences between sponsored and non-sponsored direct lending approaches. There are advantages and disadvantages to both. As a lender, we think it’s wise to pursue both approaches. Both can
