We believe non-agency RMBS bonds will present a very attractive investment opportunity in 2023. Prepayment-sensitive assets (e.g., agency IOs) provide a particularly compelling diversification story due to the countercyclical nature of the sector, in our view. Our current base case
Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate
Fixed Income Impact portfolios can be flexibly managed to client objectives Increasingly, companies are being measured not only by their earnings and cash flow, but according to the effect their activities have on the environment and society. As a result,
2022 summary: the combination of rising risk-free yields and wider spreads resulted in the worst year in IG credit since at least 1970s. History suggests a better …
Obligaties uit opkomende markten bieden enkele van de aantrekkelijkste rendementen ten opzichte van risico sinds vele jaren, vooral in het licht van de sterke fundamentals van bedrijven en de economie. Professionele beleggers zeggen al lachend dat het VK een opkomende
In mid-September we moved our fundamental outlook for the semiconductor industry to declining, based on the expectation of slowing demand and the fact that inventory levels were well above historical averages across multiple end markets and channel distributors. Only a
Obligaties uit opkomende markten werden getroffen door inflatie, renterisico's, een stijgende dollar en geopolitieke spanningen. Maar de bezorgdheid over wanbetaling is overdreven. Beleggers in obligaties uit opkomende markten hebben zelden te maken gehad met een meer complexe economische en geopolitieke
Key takeaways Investment grade corporate bonds could play a vital role in terms of adding balance and resilience as part of a core fixed income allocation within a balanced portfolio. The asset class has provided an attractive alternative to developed
Generating income is a key role of fixed income. For investors, the durability of income streams becomes more important amid heightened volatility in both equity and bond markets. Capital Group portfolio manager Damien McCann provides context around …
De reële rendementen zijn in alle klassen van vastrentende waarden sterk gestegen. Dat schept voor beleggers kansen die we al jaren niet meer gezien hebben. Vastrentende waarden maken een heropleving door. Beleggers worden steeds vaker vergoed voor risico's – en
In een verder ongunstige omgeving voor obligatieemittenten en -beleggers ziet de toekomst voor obligaties uit opkomende markten er zonder twijfel groen uit. Stijgende wereldwijde rentes en volatiele markten hebben zwaar gewogen op zowel het aanbod van als de vraag naar
Credit spreads have narrowed again, especially in the US. Valuations remain more compelling in European credit. While US HY index spread has narrowed, lowest-rated CCC bonds are underperforming and dispersion between issuers is rising. Rising risk-free yields and wider spreads
In een verder ongunstige omgeving voor obligatieemittenten en -beleggers ziet de toekomst voor obligaties uit opkomende markten er zonder twijfel groen uit. Stijgende wereldwijde rentes en volatiele markten hebben zwaar gewogen op zowel het aanbod van als de vraag naar
It has been a challenging year for fixed income markets in 2022 amid rising inflation and slowing global growth. While uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, today’s starting yields offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Yields across sectors
Mike Gitlin, Capital Group’s head of fixed income, sets out the importance of investing in bond funds that deliver on their stated objective. He also explains what differentiates Capital Group from industry peers. We’ve heard you talk about the four
Our baseline cyclical forecast includes shallow recessions and rising unemployment across large developed markets, with growth unlikely to bounce back quickly. Central bankers appear squarely focused on …
High yield bonds are frequently misunderstood, with an undeserved reputation for being high risk. We view them as a hybrid asset class, sitting between equity and traditional debt markets. In our view, high yield bonds exhibit compelling …
De ontwikkeling van de reële obligatierendementen en de break-evenrentes op inflatiebeschermde obligaties geven aan hoe de rest van de vastrentende markt zal presteren. Dat is nu bijzonder relevant. Reële rendementen zijn altijd belangrijk. Maar obligatiebeleggers besteden best extra aandacht aan
According to the International Energy Agency, in order to meet the Paris Agreement’s goals (climate stabilization at “well below” 2 degrees Celsius global temperature rise), mineral requirements for clean energy technologies would need to quadruple by 2040. In addition, in
Global Asset Allocation Insights Inflation is still stubbornly high, meaning the Fed and the ECB are keeping their feet pressed down on the hawkish pedal for now. However, growth data is turning sharply negative in developed markets as the consumer
Companies are facing a number of macro headwinds and ongoing margin pressures. While this environment can be challenging, we think many high yield companies are wellpositioned to navigate an economic slowdown given low leverage, healthy balance sheets and few near-term
When describing credit markets, investors and investment managers often define the available universe as synonymous with the public bond markets (and, perhaps, middle market and other leveraged loans). Seemingly unnoticed by investors, however, is that the allocation and provision of
Abstract The most common models to assess asset returns are a linear combination of risk factors. We have employed tree-based machine learning algorithms to capture nonlinearities and detect interaction effects among risk factors in the EUR and USD credit space.
In our previous outlook, we encouraged investors to tune out “noise” and focus on “signal” — economic and asset class fundamentals evidenced in hard data. We continue to endorse this approach, but acknowledge that even the most diligent followers of
Explaining portfolio returns through Fama-French-Carhart models supposes linearity between returns and risk factors. It makes it possible to simply identify relationships as a linear combination of factors, while in reality, these relationships could be much more complex. In support of
It is no secret that 2022 has been challenging for fixed income investors. High inflation and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s initiation of interest rate hikes have weighed on markets. Nevertheless, the broad credit universe provides ample opportunities for investors
It has been a rocky start to the year for credit in 2022, with both year-to-date total and excess returns being starkly negative. What started as a duration-driven selloff has been exacerbated by macro headwinds including high inflation, the Russia-Ukraine
Dear Mr Draghi, After a busy couple of months leading a fractious Italian government through various crises, you must be looking forward to a well-deserved summer holiday. Before you and your team leave for the beach, the ECB is preparing
The extent of the Q1 drawdown in fixed income markets was both large and rare relative to history. The aftermath of the pandemic and the conflict in Ukraine propelled inflation in developed markets around the world to multi-decade highs. In
Growing uncertainty in markets has rekindled the age-old “active vs. passive” debate. In 2017, PIMCO published results of an exhaustive study that showed active U.S. bond mutual funds had largely outperformed their median passive peers over many years, whereas active
For most risk assets, total return is achieved predominantly via capital price return, but not in high yield. Over long-term periods, income tends to drive the bulk of the total return for high yield bonds. In fact, over 100% of
Following the bond market’s recent beating, term yields have already priced in aggressive Fed rate hikes, positioning core bonds to effectively diversify credit risk.
Strong funded ratios and higher interest rates are prompting many corporate pension plan sponsors to shift assets to LDI strategies. If you’re still waiting, consider a hedging portfolio built on public corporate credit, complemented with non-traditional hedging assets.
Credit markets came under pressure again in March, with most fixed income asset classes generating negative total returns, although excess returns were mostly positive. Treasury yields traded sharply higher, and the yield curve flattened, with two- and 10-year Treasury yields
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: The U.S. loan market continued to recover ground lost in February, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (the “Index”) returned 0.54% for the seven-day period ended March 31. The Index saw
After a tough year for China’s property market, there have been recent signs that Beijing’s policy stance is now turning more supportive for the sector. Although a repeat of the massive stimulus of 2015/16 is unlikely, we now expect the
Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine war and its economic fallout The world's major economies went into the current crisis with fairly sound fundamentals, positive growth and low unemployment. Several were still enjoying the boost from withdrawing social distancing measures introduced
Voya Leveraged Credit Group – Senior Loan Talking Points: Following a period of weakness related to geopolitical tension and largely negative broad market sentiment, the U.S. loan market performed in strong fashion this week, as the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index
Omdat de landen die het universum van obligaties uit opkomende markten vormen zo sterk van elkaar verschillen, moeten beleggers een absolute-return benadering overwegen. Naarmate het economische klimaat in 2021 versomberde en er stormen dreigden voor 2022, maakten beleggers zich steeds
This Summary Edition contains three extracts from the full Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2022. The first extract explains the Yearbook’s purpose. It describes the DMS Database, which lies at its core and covers all the main asset categories
I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last
IN DEZE UPDATE Marktbeeld Spreads bedrijfsobligaties liepen met 11 basispunten op Inflatie mogelijk minder tijdelijk Black Friday: Omikron ECB: PEPP eindigt eind maart 2022 Outperformance van cyclische consumentenbedrijven, vastgoed negatieve uitzondering Semistaat en gedekte obligaties bewogen mee met swaps
I'm often asked to give my perspective on the current environment. Before I do, I'd like to take a step back. During most of my career, you could take credit or interest rate risk and do relatively well. This last
Kredietexpert Stéphane Rüegg bespreekt wat zijn klanten denken, de ontluikende groene obligatiemarkt en zijn zeer persoonlijke kijk op verantwoord beleggen. Waarom is duurzaam beleggen belangrijk voor u? Ik werd me daarvan bewust op verschillende manieren. Eerst en vooral herinner ik
Macro / government bonds All three major central banks making decisions last week have demonstrated that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as outweighing the need to address inflation pressure.
I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at
Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.
If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that
Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will
The changing landscape The resilience and adaptability of the asset class during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has helped to cement private credit’s permanence in the minds of strategic asset allocators, with private markets proving their value to investors in balancing
