CIO View, Chart of the Week As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were
Week Ahead The ECB’s Governing Council will meet next week. Both the meeting and the following press conference by President Lagarde should be uneventful. In any case, monetary policy is not at issue. New indications regarding the course of the
House View What a week! Over the course of three days, investors were treated to a triple whammy of encouraging news. First, it was smooth sailing at Christine Lagarde’s first press release as head of the European Central Bank. As
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Why the global economy—and markets—still have room to run Although some of the risks that have weighed on the global economy may be starting to fade, it is too soon to sound the all-clear. We anticipate that 2020
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
This report considers systemic risks arising from the procyclicality associated with margin and haircut practices and sets out possible policy options to address these. Post-crisis regulatory reforms have resulted in the majority of derivatives being centrally cleared or subject to
Eurozone output remains positive, but sluggish, with Consensus forecasts of 1.1% for 2019. National data showed that Q3 2019 GDP growth remained stable in Italy (0.1%), Spain (0.4%) and France (0.3%). However, the slump affecting the export-oriented manufacturing sector, most
Commentary Despite slowing growth and Britain’s ongoing struggles to map an exit from the E.U., central bank stimulus and falling yields helped European equities to mark their best year since 2009. The benchmark S&P Europe 350 rose 6% in the
Fed, ECB, PBoC and the Boj
The 20th anniversary of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) offers an opportunity to look back on the ECB’s record and learn lessons that can improve the conduct of policy in the future. This paper charts the way the ECB has
As expected, the Governing Council did not make any changes at today's meeting. Interest rates and guidance for monetary policy were confirmed. The duration of the low-interest phase and of the purchases of securities was left open. A first interest
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their
ECB president Christine Lagarde was comfortable in her new role. Nobody had expected a change in the ECB’s monetary policy, but everybody was interested to see how she would handle the press conference following her first meeting in charge of
We expect little movement in bond yields. It's again in corporates and emerging markets that we look for potential returns. We expect neither the Fed nor the ECB to cut or raise rates in 2020. Euro corporate bonds and emerging-market
Executive summary Global growth is near a point of positive inflection and recession fears should ease. The easing in financial conditions, moderation in the drag on growth from the US-China ‘trade war’ and credit and policy-supported stabilisation of the Chinese
Carmignac’s Note December 2019 Investors were worried about the state of the global economy – epitomised this summer by a collapse in bond yields and an incipient stock market correction. But when monetary policymakers sent out the longawaited message this autumn that
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint December 2019 “We're in the final throes of a very important deal… it's going very well.” President Trump on the US-China trade talks, 26 November, Bloomberg. We are upgrading our global growth forecasts in response to
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls. In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been
No sooner had Mario Draghi finished his press conference in September that the deep divisions within the ECB governing council were laid bare. In an unprecedented action, the heads of the Austrian, German, French and Dutch central banks publicly criticized
ECB QE2 started off on a strong foot, according to data released on Monday regarding the very first week of purchases. The overall increase in holdings of the four QE programmes was quite high for just one week relative to
October 2019 US and ECB communications revealed divided opinions on the prospect for more aggressive stimulus looking ahead despite stress in US money markets. As a result, investors may face a ‘gap’ between limited monetary policy support and emerging fiscal
Iedere president van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) wordt herinnerd op basis van zijn of haar bekendste uitspraak. Bij Wim Duisenberg was dat: “I hear you, but I do not listen”. Daarmee gaf hij aan dat hij wel wist wat
Russ explains why monetary easing matters more than geopolitical risks for the markets right now. Absent a year-end meltdown, stocks will have enjoyed a stellar year. That stocks would post +20% gains was not obvious back in January, when investors
Quarterly Update Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will
Global Liquidity In September, equity markets were supported by further monetary stimulus around the world. The Federal Reserve carried out its second rate cut last month, while the ECB announced a new open-ended asset purchase programme starting in November. On
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
