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Central banks set to lead the week, as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare to deliver their latest announcements

Central banks set to lead the week, as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare to deliver their latest announcements

🕔17:18, 17.Jun 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rate decision, press conference and quarterly forecasts will likely dominate the week. Last week’s US retail sales and consumer confidence releases complicated the picture for the Fed. A marked upward revision to April’s sales (and

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EM Fixed Income

EM Fixed Income

🕔11:02, 13.Jun 2019

Our views for the coming months  After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary

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ECB looks at risks

ECB looks at risks

🕔04:02, 7.Jun 2019

ECB Council Meeting As expected, the Governing Council of the ECB did not decide to change key ECB interest rates at today's meeting. However, the guidance was changed somewhat surprisingly today. Whereas the ECB had previously promised the markets unchanged

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Income is back in bond returns

Income is back in bond returns

🕔18:41, 29.May 2019

We see income, or carry, reasserting itself as the key driver of bond market returns. Scott explains. Coupon income historically has contributed the lion’s share of total returns across global fixed income markets. Yet declining yields this year elevated the

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PM May resignation and European elections outcome could precipitate several local snap elections while trade war tensions still looming

PM May resignation and European elections outcome could precipitate several local snap elections while trade war tensions still looming

🕔14:58, 27.May 2019

European elections see relatively high turnout and fragmentation. Turnout surprised on the upside, at its highest in 20 years (50.5% versus 43% in 2014), suggesting that most Europeans are still interested in politics and Europe. The two historical formations –

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Applied philosophy

Applied philosophy

🕔19:02, 23.May 2019

Pause for thought  Market sentiment at the beginning of this year stands in stark contrast to that of a year ago. Last year markets worried less about growth and more about inflation but this reversed as the year progressed. The

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Why under-owned Europe may be worth a look

Why under-owned Europe may be worth a look

🕔08:52, 22.May 2019

Elga suggests a few investment options that may benefit from a pick-up in European growth and any decline in geopolitical concerns. We continue to prefer a “barbell” approach to risk taking in the late-cycle stage: quality stocks, income-generating bonds and

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Crypto-Assets: Implications for financial stability, monetary policy, and payments and market infrastructures

Crypto-Assets: Implications for financial stability, monetary policy, and payments and market infrastructures

🕔15:22, 17.May 2019

Occasional Paper Series This paper summarises the outcomes of the analysis of the ECB Crypto-Assets Task Force. First, it proposes a characterisation of crypto-assets in the absence of a common definition and as a basis for the consistent analysis of

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“Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy”

“Measuring Euro Area Monetary Policy”

🕔15:22, 17.May 2019

ECB Monetary Policy Events  Table A.1 presents all the monetary policy events considered in our study. It shows the evolving pattern of the ECB meeting policy and the associated changes in policy communication. In this section, we point out these

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Investors in Europe beware problematic politics

Investors in Europe beware problematic politics

🕔07:39, 16.May 2019

Elga explains why politics pose the biggest risk to our base case that European growth should rebound in the second half of this year – and why the European Central Banks’s perceived lack of policy options is also a concern.

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Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report

🕔13:02, 13.May 2019

European survey and hard data present a mixed economic picture; meanwhile, political risks remain elevated intra-Europe and with the rest of the world. We expect a turn in the global industrial cycle to bolster growth in Europe over the coming

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Q2 2019 OUTLOOK & REVIEW

Q2 2019 OUTLOOK & REVIEW

🕔15:02, 2.May 2019

QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group The global economy may slow further in early 2019, given lingering trade uncertainty, a continued slowdown in China, and the lagged impact of tighter financial conditions in late 2018. However, global growth is likely to

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Review of markets over April 2019

Review of markets over April 2019

🕔15:21, 1.May 2019

After a strong first quarter, risk assets continued their rally in April. Equity markets climbed across the regions, while high yield spreads narrowed further. This year’s rebound has been driven by accommodative central banks, the expectation of a recovery in

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Risk On!

Risk On!

🕔13:02, 1.May 2019

Back to Lower for Longer? On the back of the Fed’s dovish pivot, risk assets are off to a banner start with the MSCI All-Country World Index (on a local currency basis) and the S&P 500 indexes returning 12.4% and

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Is inflation definitely dead or simply dormant?

Is inflation definitely dead or simply dormant?

🕔10:15, 1.May 2019

Consequences for central banks I nflation never disappears completely. In history, there have been periods when it was dormant, but revivals have always been painful. What is striking at present is the inability of some countries to boost inflation despite

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The ECB and tiering

The ECB and tiering

🕔12:49, 30.Apr 2019

Eurozone heterogeneity remains an important constraint for the European Central Bank’s (ECB) transmission mechanism Significant regional differences in central bank liquidity provision/absorption and commercial bank liquidity utilisation make the implementation of a “one-size-fits-all” tiering-policy strategy challenging . The introduction of

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Time to worry about trade wars coming to Europe?

Time to worry about trade wars coming to Europe?

🕔16:18, 29.Apr 2019

Trade tensions between the U.S. and Europe may be heating up. Isabelle explains the potential impacts. We expect a recovery in Europe’s economy later in the year. But there’s a key risk to this base case of ours: Trade tensions

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Buying time to keep growth on track

Buying time to keep growth on track

🕔13:02, 29.Apr 2019

Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed

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Why a Fed Rate Cut (or 2) Makes SenseInvestors were worried about another rate hike. Now they’re expecting a cut.

🕔19:57, 26.Apr 2019

Investors were worried about another rate hike. Now they’re expecting a cut. Financial market expectations in 2019 have pivoted from a potential Federal Reserve rate hike to a rate cut, alleviating what had been a significant risk for investors. If there

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China in a bull shop

China in a bull shop

🕔17:41, 25.Apr 2019

Monthly Investment Strategy With the “policy put” in place (dovish US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank, fiscal stimulus in China and Eurozone), we have been waiting for signs of a cyclical upswing… … getting us to focus on China

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China surprises on the upside while political wrangling dominates Europe

China surprises on the upside while political wrangling dominates Europe

🕔15:29, 23.Apr 2019

We have revised upwards our 2019 Chinese GDP forecast to 6.3% from 6.1%. A strong rebound in China’s March data showed the country’s economy grew in the first quarter (Q1) from a year earlier, defying expectations of a continued slowdown.

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BII Global weekly commentary

BII Global weekly commentary

🕔14:01, 16.Apr 2019

Key points We share our research on the potential impact from climate-related risks on three markets, aided by advances in data and climate science. The European Central Bank kept its policy unchanged and signalled the potential for more dovish moves.

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Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

Future of Europe – the Eurozone and the next recession

🕔13:02, 16.Apr 2019

UBS House View Weekly — 15 April 2019 “Whatever it takes.” These words of Mario Draghi’s marked the inflection point in the last recession and paved the way to the present economic recovery. But as the euro celebrates its 20th

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Earnings expectations too pessimistic, a bottom for China and Fed speculation continues

Earnings expectations too pessimistic, a bottom for China and Fed speculation continues

🕔12:23, 16.Apr 2019

First quarter earnings expectations look too pessimistic. The first quarter earnings season has kicked off with mixed signals from initial results. Overall, the growth momentum is expected to slow down from the strong run observed over the last couple of

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Market turbulence and policy reversal shouldn’t cow investors

Market turbulence and policy reversal shouldn’t cow investors

🕔18:06, 15.Apr 2019

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that despite the market turbulence witnessed in the past several months, as well as a dramatic policy reversal, we find ourselves at a moment of remarkable economic stability. That fact, along with greater policy

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Asset Allocation Consensus June

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Sign up on #OpinioPro to read all the latest research on #fixedincome, #assetallocation and so much more! Click here: https://t.co/90NYM4HBVh

In UBP's Monthly #Investment #Outlook they write: "After Q1 global weakness, world growth is expected to stabilise in Q2 and progressively recover moving into 2H19". Read the whole outlook here: https://t.co/jlNTFp5V6M

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