Faced with the risk of persistently high inflation, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England increased their main policy rates substantially in 2022. Policymakers have signalled that more increases are coming. To calibrate the scale and
TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess
Extracting a common thread from last week’s abundant information flows was impossible. Perhaps the critical item will be the weakness of the US economy revealed by detailed GDP data. Last week was rich in information. From UK and Chinese politics,
Q4 2022 Investment Outlook: The global economy is facing a confluence of shocks, most recently the severe reaction in UK assets and FX to the new fiscal package (roughly 10% of GDP, unfunded). Market confidence has continued to slide on
Monthly investment outlook august 2022 Just as markets had to reprice a new interest rate regime in early-2022 amidst fading hopes for a transitory inflationary backdrop, they are now similarly beginning to recognise that the prospects of an economic soft
For all of 2022, we have focused on tighter monetary policy, discussing the dilemma faced by central banks (in ‘Czech Mate’) and their subsequent decision to prioritize the war on inflation (in ‘The Inflation Game’). As we peer into 2023,
It’s work in progress for central banks. But the meaning of this phrase differs depending on the bank in question. For the Fed it means taking policy rates another big step towards restrictive territory. The ECB seems to be edging
ECB forced to tighten more agressively
BIS Working Papers No 1034 We incorporate monetary policy into a model of stochastic debt sustainability analysis and evaluate the impact of unconventional policies on sovereign debt dynamics. The model optimizes debt financing to trade off financing cost with refinancing
Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal
So far in 2022, the European economy has held up remarkably well despite investor worries about a war-induced recession. But as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to hike interest rates at its 21 July meeting, the economy faces substantial
Following yesterday’s stronger than anticipated Eurozone inflation print, coupled with recent comments from various ECB members including President Lagarde, Vice-President de Guindos and Chief Economist Lane, the European Central Bank are expected to increase interest rates in July, the first
Dear Mr Draghi, After a busy couple of months leading a fractious Italian government through various crises, you must be looking forward to a well-deserved summer holiday. Before you and your team leave for the beach, the ECB is preparing
April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …
April meeting: No further acceleration of stimulus withdrawal was hinted at by the ECB in April. It confirmed both the previous guidance on QE (likely to end in Q3) and the policy sequence, with interest rates to rise at “some
Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the
The uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, the sharp increase in commodity prices, and the deterioration of supply chain issues are dampening the economic outlook. At the same time, the inflation risks have increased drastically. The Fed has promised
Ben Bernanke eloquently expressed the central banks dilemma when dealing with an exogenous price shock: “monetary policy cannot offset the recessionary or inflationary effects of increased oil prices at the same time”. It must choose. He also proposed a qualitative
Major political economy shifts often coincide with wars or preparation of wars. They do not simply affect how resources are affected to defend against external threats. They also shape priorities on civil spending to maximize internal social cohesion. Building a
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility, even as the Fed and the ECB displayed hawkish overtures earlier. We suggest a more cautious stance in credit amid rising liquidity risks and a less appealing risk/return
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
Stubbornly high inflation numbers have sparked nervousness among central banks, which are rapidly reverting to hawkish policies. The Fed is now expected to raise rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. The ECB …
Bundesbank President Weidmann today surprisingly announced his resignation at the end of 2021 and gave personal reasons for this decision. Jens Weidmann was considered a proven monetary-policy hawk within the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). During his
Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched
Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central
Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Following a shaky start to its vaccine rollout, Europe appears to be recovering as businesses are reopening and lockdowns continue to ease in some areas. As the European Central Bank debates the extension
Volatility in interest rates year-to-date has unevenly impacted credit markets. Investment grade credit (IG) weakened in sympathy with sovereign yields, especially in high quality and long duration paper. IG bonds were down -3.6% in the U.S. year-to-date, and -0.5% in
Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …
Tension on bond yields mounted over the week as investors began to fear a strong economic rebound might fuel inflation. The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US could cause some sectors, like commodities, to overheat.
This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …
Preserving favorable financing conditions Column by Hendrik Tuch The ECB meeting last week was supposed to be rather uneventful, with the key decision already made in the December meeting to increase its PEPP buying program with 500 billion and extend
2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not
T. Rowe Price Insights from our Global Fixed Income Team How the prospect of further monetary easing could impact bond markets. Central banks are not done yet. With economic recoveries under threat, several developed market central banks, including the European
Column by Hendrik Tuch, Head of Fixed Income “Interest rates and yield curves have seen quite some volatility in the last few weeks as markets digested the election news and the coronavirus headlines. Ahead of the US elections, many investors
Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner emerges quickly
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation
Last week started off on a strong note, helped by news on Monday of Gilead Sciences’ USD 21 billion acquisition of Immunomedics and chipmaker Nvidia’s USD 40 billion purchase of ARM Holdings. Software giant Oracle reported on …
Some regions of Europe are returning to lockdown – for instance some districts of Madrid badly hit by the second wave of the pandemic. Yet, for now these lockdowns are very different from the ones imposed in March and April:
Key points The divergence between a decisive Fed and a more hesitant ECB is an interesting debate but it hides the fact that on both sides of the Atlantic monetary policy through its traditional transmission channels is facing diminishing returns.
The US Stocks drifted higher through much of last week, although the catalysts for the move were perhaps harder to identify than usual, and trading was subdued relative to recent months. The week’s busy economic calendar appeared to play some
Aggressive interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions and quantitative easing worked well. Buying facilities rather serve as a backstop. Based on a diminishing marginal effect from Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), the Fed might do more for longer to support
Credit Continuum Monetary stimulus measures and high levels of cash continue to support spread tightening between now and year end. The rally in credit markets has continued in May given Federal Reserve and European Central Bank support measures and the
Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.
Week Ahead Focus: ECB Council meeting, EU Recovery Fund The ECB’s Governing Council is to meet next week. We expect the PEPP purchasing program to be increased by EUR 500bn. While the Governing …
Research & Strategy Insights The European Commission “doubled down” on the Franco-German initiative and came out with a bigger quantum for its “Next Generation” package and proposals for new “own resources”. This is politically important. While we are still very
