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Tag "ECB"

Economic Indicators: Stabilizing or Waning?

Economic Indicators: Stabilizing or Waning?

🕔12:44, 4.Sep 2023

In recent analyses of major developed economies, mixed signals emerge from leading indicators, presenting an unclear future trajectory. The Conference Board’s Leading Index, for instance, provides some evidence supporting the possibility of an impending recession. Nevertheless, there are indicators like

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A Busy Week in Global Markets: Policy Shifts and Economic Indicators

A Busy Week in Global Markets: Policy Shifts and Economic Indicators

🕔13:17, 29.Aug 2023

Market Dynamics & Beijing's Policy Shifts UBS ETF Capital Markets' weekly report, titled "Weekly Flow Update," from August 21st to 25th unveils a dynamic market landscape amidst a typical summer slowdown. Key highlights include policy declarations from Beijing, a global

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Weekly Market Recap: The Ups and Downs in Global Investment Trends

Weekly Market Recap: The Ups and Downs in Global Investment Trends

🕔14:57, 17.Aug 2023

In a bustling week for global markets, events culminated in bolstered investor sentiment despite notable interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. The underpinning factor was a dovish disposition by policymakers coupled with encouraging economic

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The Dance of Central Banks: Navigating through Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

The Dance of Central Banks: Navigating through Inflation and Economic Uncertainty

🕔09:12, 8.Aug 2023

Decoding Policy Shifts In the intricate dance of global economics, Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions' report, "Policy is key", spotlights the evolving monetary strategies of major central banks. Amid the dance of financial markets, the focus is now on identifying the

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Walking the Green Path: ECB’s Climate Stance and Monetary Policy

Walking the Green Path: ECB’s Climate Stance and Monetary Policy

🕔08:11, 4.Jul 2023

Climate change risks and their impact on monetary policy are at the forefront of this week's ECB Forum on Central Banking in Sintra. An awarded academic paper will explore how transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy can influence the transmission

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Emerging Markets & Inflation: Key CIO Convictions for H2 2023

Emerging Markets & Inflation: Key CIO Convictions for H2 2023

🕔07:07, 28.Jun 2023

The main theme for the second half of 2023, as per CIO convictions, involves a narrow and uncertain growth path, an inflation slowdown, and monetary tightening close to its peak. Growth will decelerate, with a mild US recession, anemic growth

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Understanding the European Perspective on Global Asset Allocation

Understanding the European Perspective on Global Asset Allocation

🕔14:19, 26.Jun 2023

The macroeconomic outlook reveals a blend of opportunities and challenges as viewed from Europe. Despite tightening financial conditions expected to affect economic growth, data have been surprisingly positive. Central banks globally are nearing peak tightening, with the Federal Reserve possibly

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European Corporate Margins: Peaking Amid Rising Energy Costs and Policy Shifts

European Corporate Margins: Peaking Amid Rising Energy Costs and Policy Shifts

🕔08:35, 20.Jun 2023

As Europe grapples with increasing oil prices and the subsequent impacts on energy supply, the corporate landscape sees potential shifts in profit margins. Both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve project peaking rates by September, followed by

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Navigating the Storm: Sector Vulnerabilities Amid Rising Financing Costs

Navigating the Storm: Sector Vulnerabilities Amid Rising Financing Costs

🕔14:03, 12.Jun 2023

In "Sector Vulnerability to Rising Financing Costs", the examination of how rising financing costs affect different sectors and regions worldwide is outlined. The text highlights the increasing debt-to-EBITDA ratio among US and European firms, and their potential vulnerability to liquidity

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Navigating Asset Allocation amid Economic Uncertainty

Navigating Asset Allocation amid Economic Uncertainty

🕔08:21, 2.Jun 2023

The theme of the text pertains to current asset allocation decisions amidst a less optimistic economic outlook. The author maintains a preference for fixed income over equities, largely due to anticipated headwinds for corporate earnings and margins from higher interest

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ECB’s Greening Strategy and the Impact on Financial Markets

ECB’s Greening Strategy and the Impact on Financial Markets

🕔16:34, 9.May 2023

The main theme of the text is the greening of the European Central Bank's (ECB) balance sheet as it integrates climate considerations into its monetary policy. Since October, the ECB has been redirecting corporate bond purchases towards issuers with better

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Navigating Policy Rates Amid Trade Recession and Inflation Pressures

Navigating Policy Rates Amid Trade Recession and Inflation Pressures

🕔16:55, 8.May 2023

The main theme of the text revolves around global trade recession, electric car pricing, German household savings, and German foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. The focus then shifts to policy rate decisions in the US and Eurozone amid inflation

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Unraveling Inflation Persistence Amid ECB’s Profit Margin Focus

Unraveling Inflation Persistence Amid ECB’s Profit Margin Focus

🕔12:45, 6.Apr 2023

AXA Investment Managers' report, "The Pitfalls of the Inflation Blame Game," critically examines the European Central Bank's (ECB) emphasis on profit margins as the main factor driving persistent inflation. The report acknowledges the acceleration of core inflation in the Euro

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Tumbling European inflation is good news

Tumbling European inflation is good news

🕔16:07, 4.Apr 2023

Last week brought good news on US inflation but the declines were even more dramatic in Europe. However, core inflation in the Eurozone has yet to peak. We believe it will follow headline inflation lower but the ECB may want

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Market Skepticism and Banking Turmoil: Can Central Banks Handle the Heat Alone?

Market Skepticism and Banking Turmoil: Can Central Banks Handle the Heat Alone?

🕔15:35, 24.Mar 2023

Market reactions to the ongoing banking turmoil resulted in a significant downward revision of expectations for the policy rate of both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The market expressed its skepticism regarding the central banks' ability

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A View on ECB Meeting: March 2023

A View on ECB Meeting: March 2023

🕔15:24, 16.Mar 2023

As it has been clearly communicated by ECB policymakers in recent weeks, the central bank will hike by 50bp in its March meeting, taking its main refinancing rate to 3.5%. Moreover, President Lagarde will likely signal another large hike in

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Rising Interest Rates Hurt – Who Knew?

Rising Interest Rates Hurt – Who Knew?

🕔09:35, 15.Mar 2023

The US authorities took out the “big guns” and acted decisively before the market open to contain the spill over effect from the demise of SVB (now accompanied by Signature Bank) using a two-pronged approach. First, they will “make good”

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Stockholm Syndrome

Stockholm Syndrome

🕔08:06, 13.Mar 2023

The February inflation data vindicates the European Central Bank (ECB) hawks. We remain however concerned with the “financial channel”: the January batch for loans confirms the credit impulse in deeply negative. We look at Sweden and the UK as “canaries

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The silver lining for global trade

The silver lining for global trade

🕔14:51, 27.Feb 2023

What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening.  Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address

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is the grass always greener on the other side?

is the grass always greener on the other side?

🕔16:36, 23.Feb 2023

Global tactical asset allocation views brief After a weak 2022, the grass seemed a lot greener at the start of 2023, with equity and bond markets roaring back strongly. The optimism was fueled by a continuation of weaker headline inflation

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Eurozone inflation and ECB decisions

Eurozone inflation and ECB decisions

🕔10:23, 15.Feb 2023

While the Eurozone’s headline inflation has been slowing for two consecutive months, largely driven by negative energy base-effects, the region’s core inflation has yet to show any convincing signs of turning back down. Coming in at 5.2% year-over-year in December,

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ECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023

ECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023

🕔08:24, 7.Feb 2023

A central narrative of 2022 was that central banks, including the European Central bank (ECB), were “behind the curve”. As a result, eurozone inflation rose to levels not seen for decades, eroding living …

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔16:48, 24.Jan 2023

Market Perspective Volatility likely to remain elevated in the new year as central bank policy expectations diverge amid evidence of slowing growth and moderating inflation. While slowing the pace of tightening, the US Federal Reserve reinforced its commitment to taming

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Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

🕔12:28, 5.Dec 2022

Faced with the risk of persistently high inflation, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England increased their main policy rates substantially in 2022. Policymakers have signalled that more increases are coming. To calibrate the scale and

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TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

TLTRO in the context of ECB policy normalisation

🕔12:50, 10.Nov 2022

TLTRO repayments and redemptions will drive incoming ECB passive QT over the next few quarters. So far, banks have repaid a small amount of liquidity, while the ECB’s recent decision on remuneration of excess reserves has helped keep current excess

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Bad news turning good

Bad news turning good

🕔11:40, 2.Nov 2022

Extracting a common thread from last week’s abundant information flows was impossible. Perhaps the critical item will be the weakness of the US economy revealed by detailed GDP data. Last week was rich in information. From UK and Chinese politics,

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Into the unknown

Into the unknown

🕔10:22, 25.Oct 2022

Q4 2022 Investment Outlook: The global economy is facing a confluence of shocks, most recently the severe reaction in UK assets and FX to the new fiscal package (roughly 10% of GDP, unfunded). Market confidence has continued to slide on

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Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

Recession risk – the point of recognition approaches

🕔12:50, 14.Oct 2022

Monthly investment outlook august 2022  Just as markets had to reprice a new interest rate regime in early-2022 amidst fading hopes for a transitory inflationary backdrop, they are now similarly beginning to recognise that the prospects of an economic soft

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Global Fixed Income Macro Outlook Twin peaks

Global Fixed Income Macro Outlook Twin peaks

🕔12:24, 13.Oct 2022

For all of 2022, we have focused on tighter monetary policy, discussing the dilemma faced by central banks (in ‘Czech Mate’) and their subsequent decision to prioritize the war on inflation (in ‘The Inflation Game’). As we peer into 2023,

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Central bank watcher: Work in progress

Central bank watcher: Work in progress

🕔09:01, 5.Oct 2022

It’s work in progress for central banks. But the meaning of this phrase differs depending on the bank in question. For the Fed it means taking policy rates another big step towards restrictive territory. The ECB seems to be edging

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Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

Investment Event: ECB jumbo hike

🕔09:20, 15.Sep 2022

ECB forced to tighten more agressively

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Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases

Debt sustainability and monetary policy: the case of ECB asset purchases

🕔12:20, 5.Sep 2022

BIS Working Papers No 1034   We incorporate monetary policy into a model of stochastic debt sustainability analysis and evaluate the impact of unconventional policies on sovereign debt dynamics. The model optimizes debt financing to trade off financing cost with refinancing

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:41, 3.Aug 2022

Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal

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ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

ECB faces tough choices as it prepares to raise rates

🕔10:36, 26.Jul 2022

So far in 2022, the European economy has held up remarkably well despite investor worries about a war-induced recession. But as the European Central Bank (ECB) prepares to hike interest rates at its 21 July meeting, the economy faces substantial

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Benefitting from the forthcoming ECB interest rate rises

Benefitting from the forthcoming ECB interest rate rises

🕔15:18, 22.Jul 2022

Following yesterday’s stronger than anticipated Eurozone inflation print, coupled with recent comments from various ECB members including President Lagarde, Vice-President de Guindos and Chief Economist Lane, the European Central Bank are expected to increase interest rates in July, the first

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An open letter to Mario Draghi

An open letter to Mario Draghi

🕔12:22, 5.Jul 2022

Dear Mr Draghi, After a busy couple of months leading a fractious Italian government through various crises, you must be looking forward to a well-deserved summer holiday. Before you and your team leave for the beach, the ECB is preparing

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Growing Risks on the Horizon

Growing Risks on the Horizon

🕔08:45, 25.May 2022

April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …

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ECB strikes a somewhat dovish tone, despite inflation remaining top priority

ECB strikes a somewhat dovish tone, despite inflation remaining top priority

🕔12:27, 10.May 2022

April meeting: No further acceleration of stimulus withdrawal was hinted at by the ECB in April. It confirmed both the previous guidance on QE (likely to end in Q3) and the policy sequence, with interest rates to rise at “some

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The Reckoning

The Reckoning

🕔13:10, 2.May 2022

Inflation and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine dominate media headlines and the economic and financial environment. US inflation has accelerated further to an average of nearly 7% year-over-year (Y/Y) in the six months through February, from close to 6% over the

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Global Strategy 2Q 2022

Global Strategy 2Q 2022

🕔08:34, 18.Apr 2022

The uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, the sharp increase in commodity prices, and the deterioration of supply chain issues are dampening the economic outlook. At the same time, the inflation risks have increased drastically. The Fed has promised

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Augmenting the Bernanke Doctrine

Augmenting the Bernanke Doctrine

🕔12:56, 28.Mar 2022

Ben Bernanke eloquently expressed the central banks dilemma when dealing with an exogenous price shock: “monetary policy cannot offset the recessionary or inflationary effects of increased oil prices at the same time”. It must choose. He also proposed a qualitative

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War made the State

War made the State

🕔16:35, 21.Mar 2022

Major political economy shifts often coincide with wars or preparation of wars. They do not simply affect how resources are affected to defend against external threats. They also shape priorities on civil spending to maximize internal social cohesion. Building a

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Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

🕔11:34, 15.Mar 2022

In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to

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Hot inflation and geopolitical tensions: cool down risk

Hot inflation and geopolitical tensions: cool down risk

🕔10:04, 11.Mar 2022

The geopolitical escalation at month’s end marks a further rise in volatility, even as the Fed and the ECB displayed hawkish overtures earlier. We suggest a more cautious stance in credit amid rising liquidity risks and a less appealing risk/return

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Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

🕔15:18, 10.Mar 2022

In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to

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Entering a new investment regime

Entering a new investment regime

🕔12:41, 8.Feb 2022

Stubbornly high inflation numbers have sparked nervousness among central banks, which are rapidly reverting to hawkish policies. The Fed is now expected to raise rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. The ECB …

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Bundesbank chief Weidmann to step down

Bundesbank chief Weidmann to step down

🕔10:45, 8.Nov 2021

Bundesbank President Weidmann today surprisingly announced his resignation at the end of 2021 and gave personal reasons for this decision. Jens Weidmann was considered a proven monetary-policy hawk within the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB). During his

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When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

🕔12:42, 30.Aug 2021

Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is

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