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Tag "ECB"

When a taper is not a taper.

When a taper is not a taper.

🕔12:58, 21.Sep 2021

Core government bond markets ended the week with a better tone, even as the European Central Bank announced its intentions to modestly reduce asset purchases, and as the ECB increased forecasts for economic growth and for inflation. The ECB notched

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Falling into Fall.

Falling into Fall.

🕔16:01, 14.Sep 2021

Government bond yields generally moved higher last week; the spectre of a withdrawal of ultraeasy policy conditions remains front and centre of attention. Indeed, we will hear more on this subject perhaps this week from Europe when the European Central

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

🕔12:42, 30.Aug 2021

Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is

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Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

🕔12:40, 17.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …

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When consensus becomes a pain trade

When consensus becomes a pain trade

🕔15:52, 6.Aug 2021

The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this

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Easy on the Austerity

Easy on the Austerity

🕔10:59, 26.Jul 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Following a shaky start to its vaccine rollout, Europe appears to be recovering as businesses are reopening and lockdowns continue to ease in some areas. As the European Central Bank debates the extension

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Volatility in rates little seen in HY so far

Volatility in rates little seen in HY so far

🕔09:31, 27.Apr 2021

Volatility in interest rates year-to-date has unevenly impacted credit markets. Investment grade credit (IG) weakened in sympathy with sovereign yields, especially in high quality and long duration paper. IG bonds were down -3.6% in the U.S. year-to-date, and -0.5% in

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A lot of questions, not many answers

A lot of questions, not many answers

🕔10:45, 23.Mar 2021

Bad news on the health front; volatile economic data; hopes that the US national 4th of July holiday can be celebrated with a BBQ; and further lockdowns, in place or imminent, in Europe. This odd concoction on the anniversary of the Great Lockdown did not keep …

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Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

🕔11:19, 2.Mar 2021

Tension on bond yields mounted over the week as investors began to fear a strong economic rebound might fuel inflation. The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US could cause some sectors, like commodities, to overheat.

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Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

Tracking ECB’s Communication: Perspectives and Implications for Financial Markets

🕔12:48, 25.Feb 2021

This article assesses the communication of the European Central Bank (ECB) using Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques. We show the evolution of discourse over time and capture the main themes of interest for the central bank that go beyond its traditional mandate of maintaining price stability, enlightening …

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Preserving favorable financing conditions

Preserving favorable financing conditions

🕔10:51, 2.Feb 2021

Preserving favorable financing conditions Column by Hendrik Tuch The ECB meeting last week was supposed to be rather uneventful, with the key decision already made in the December meeting to increase its PEPP buying program with 500 billion and extend

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The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

The big shock, the big hope, the big illusions

🕔15:12, 8.Jan 2021

2020 has been an unprecedented year in modern history, with the Covid-19 pandemic leading to the deepest global recession post World War II that has affected the most countries simultaneously since the 1870s (World Bank). This big shock is not

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Central Banks Are Not Out of Ammunition Yet

Central Banks Are Not Out of Ammunition Yet

🕔07:36, 4.Dec 2020

T. Rowe Price Insights from our Global Fixed Income Team How the prospect of further monetary easing could impact bond markets. Central banks are not done yet. With economic recoveries under threat, several developed market central banks, including the European

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Central banks versus the vaccine

Central banks versus the vaccine

🕔14:39, 18.Nov 2020

Column by Hendrik Tuch, Head of Fixed Income “Interest rates and yield curves have seen quite some volatility in the last few weeks as markets digested the election news and the coronavirus headlines. Ahead of the US elections, many investors

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Back to square zero?

Back to square zero?

🕔13:07, 3.Nov 2020

Of course, the impact of next week’s elections in the US goes well beyond the economic and financial realm, but from our narrow angle, we will follow the results across two dimensions. One is volatility: whether a winner emerges quickly

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Gravity wins in the end

Gravity wins in the end

🕔09:30, 29.Sep 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔08:05, 24.Sep 2020

The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔13:05, 22.Sep 2020

Last week started off on a strong note, helped by news on Monday of Gilead Sciences’ USD 21 billion acquisition of Immunomedics and chipmaker Nvidia’s USD 40 billion purchase of ARM Holdings. Software giant Oracle reported on …

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Investing to pastures green(er)

Investing to pastures green(er)

🕔11:07, 22.Sep 2020

Some regions of Europe are returning to lockdown – for instance some districts of Madrid badly hit by the second wave of the pandemic. Yet, for now these lockdowns are very different from the ones imposed in March and April:

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What won’t be in the strategy review

What won’t be in the strategy review

🕔09:37, 14.Sep 2020

Key points The divergence between a decisive Fed and a more hesitant ECB is an interesting debate but it hides the fact that on both sides of the Atlantic monetary policy through its traditional transmission channels is facing diminishing returns.

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Economic and political backdrop

Economic and political backdrop

🕔11:19, 12.Aug 2020

The US Stocks drifted higher through much of last week, although the catalysts for the move were perhaps harder to identify than usual, and trading was subdued relative to recent months. The week’s busy economic calendar appeared to play some

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Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

🕔08:09, 27.Jul 2020

Aggressive interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions and quantitative easing worked well. Buying facilities rather serve as a backstop.  Based on a diminishing marginal effect from Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), the Fed might do more for longer to support

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Road to Recovery

Road to Recovery

🕔07:37, 1.Jul 2020

Credit Continuum  Monetary stimulus measures and high levels of cash continue to support spread tightening between now and year end. The rally in credit markets has continued in May given Federal Reserve and European Central Bank support measures and the

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔09:42, 11.Jun 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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ECB to take next step

ECB to take next step

🕔13:11, 2.Jun 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB Council meeting, EU Recovery Fund   The ECB’s Governing Council is to meet next week. We expect the PEPP purchasing program to be increased by EUR 500bn. While the Governing  …

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Define ”Big”

Define ”Big”

🕔10:53, 2.Jun 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The European Commission “doubled down” on the Franco-German initiative and came out with a bigger quantum for its “Next Generation” package and proposals for new “own resources”. This is politically important. While we are still very

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔14:15, 25.May 2020

In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …

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Safe havens and QE in this week’s Top Five

Safe havens and QE in this week’s Top Five

🕔10:54, 23.May 2020

#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”

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Big Figures Looking Smaller

Big Figures Looking Smaller

🕔13:13, 19.May 2020

The ECB has to deal with a nasty form of circularity: doubts on its capacity to break its self-imposed limits – further fueled by the recent decision of the German Constitutional Court – trigger bond offloading in some of  …

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Euro area and national quarterly financial accounts

Euro area and national quarterly financial accounts

🕔07:51, 19.May 2020

Quality Report 2019  This annual report provides a quality review of the quarterly euro area and national financial accounts. The report fulfils the formal requirement for the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) to inform its Governing Council

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Issues note on liquidity in the corporate bond and commercial paper markets

Issues note on liquidity in the corporate bond and commercial paper markets

🕔12:49, 18.May 2020

Issues note on liquidity in the corporate bond and commercial paper markets, the procyclical impact of downgrades and implications for asset managers and insurers The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures necessary to contain it have brought a severe and

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Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

🕔10:12, 16.May 2020

#20 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro And it’s Saturday again: the day for us to publish our Top Five Best Read on OpinioPro this last week. Populair tags were ‘asset allocation‘ and ‘equities‘, furthermore our event calendar

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Market Compass

Market Compass

🕔14:49, 15.May 2020

April 2020 The Covid-19’s economic damages start to be felt, we expect an unprecedented GDP contraction in Q2 in both, Europe and the US. Tentative signs of recovery in China. The policy action in the US has been quick and

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Macro briefing: Will the ECB be stopped from any further QE?

Macro briefing: Will the ECB be stopped from any further QE?

🕔16:05, 14.May 2020

The court ordered the German government to ensure the ECB carried out a “proportionality assessment” of its vast purchases of government bonds. Whilst the ECB should be successful in proving that its purchase scheme was necessary and “proportional”, further expansion

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Europe bond outlook under review

Europe bond outlook under review

🕔10:09, 13.May 2020

Weekly commentary  A decision by the German constitutional court last week could potentially undermine the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and threaten to fuel fragmentation within the euro area in the long run. This comes as the

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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

🕔15:50, 12.May 2020

The results of Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have to be seen in the context of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent mitigation measures. 1 Expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were

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Technical solutions exist but the conflict is about principles

Technical solutions exist but the conflict is about principles

🕔13:17, 12.May 2020

Research & Strategy Insights Most continental European countries have by now relaxed the conditions of their lockdown to some extent or are about to do so. We continue to expect a much better second half of 2020, but we are

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Annual Report 2019

Annual Report 2019

🕔12:54, 11.May 2020

2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the euro, and support for the single currency among euro area citizens reached an all-time high of 76% in the November Eurobarometer poll. 

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Who decides on ECB purchases?

Who decides on ECB purchases?

🕔08:34, 11.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: German Federal Constitutional Court ruling, US Labor Market Report, Eurozone public debt This week, the German Federal Constitutional Court ruled on a lawsuit against the purchase of government bonds by the ECB and thus the Bundesbank under

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Central Bank Watcher

Central Bank Watcher

🕔16:55, 5.May 2020

Rates in lockdown for longer  With the outbreak of the coronavirus hitting the global economy, central banks have stepped up to the plate by delivering significant amounts of easing. Official yields are now at or below zero for all developed

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The limits of the banking channel

The limits of the banking channel

🕔14:25, 5.May 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  Flows of new bank loans to the corporate sector reached a record high in March in the Euro area, and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Bank Lending Survey suggests that credit institutions are planning to ease

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ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

ECB reduces interest rates, but does not cut key rates

🕔17:06, 4.May 2020

Short Note ECB ECB Council Meeting  At its meeting which ended today, the Governing Council decided on two further measures aimed primarily at ensuring that banks had sufficient liquidity at low interest rates. The ultimate goal is to keep lending

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Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

🕔10:50, 28.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP  In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last

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Looking for more fire-power already

Looking for more fire-power already

🕔09:50, 28.Apr 2020

Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔17:21, 17.Apr 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero  The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0%-0.25% after its second emergency cut in less than two weeks. The ECB keeps its rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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Why we are warming up on credit

Why we are warming up on credit

🕔19:14, 6.Apr 2020

Scott explains how the extraordinary outbreak-fighting policy action – and recent market turbulence – has changed our view on credit. We see improving outlook for credit – with unprecedented policy action to limit the coronavirus shock in place and sharply

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Adverse scenario becomes reality

Adverse scenario becomes reality

🕔11:32, 31.Mar 2020

Growth in CEE to dive deeper into negative territory Recent developments have deprived us of optimism and we revise our CEE growth forecast down to -4.7% this year. March PMI indices in Germany and the Eurozone plunged, dragged down by

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The Household Finance and Consumption Survey: Methodological report for the 2017 wave

The Household Finance and Consumption Survey: Methodological report for the 2017 wave

🕔05:36, 31.Mar 2020

Statistics Paper Series The Household Finance and Consumption Survey (HFCS) is a joint project of all of the national central banks of the Eurosystem, the central banks of three EU countries that have not yet adopted the euro, and several

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Are markets too optimistic?

Are markets too optimistic?

🕔05:59, 30.Mar 2020

Focus: Markets, stimulus packages, Eurozone inflation This week brought massive gains on the stock markets and yield premiums on the interest rate markets fell for the riskier investments. Spreads on Italian government bonds also fell. The markets have thus reacted

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Using synthetic indicators to assess the quality of macroeconomic statistics via mirror data

Using synthetic indicators to assess the quality of macroeconomic statistics via mirror data

🕔10:34, 24.Mar 2020

Abstract The quality of the geographical breakdown in the balance of payments and related statistics (such as international trade in goods, trade in services and foreign direct investment (FDI) statistics) can be assessed by means of comparisons with mirror data

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