Global growth upgraded as the cycle extends

Global growth upgraded as the cycle extends

🕔16:44, 4.dec 2019

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint December 2019 “We're in the final throes of a very important deal… it's going very well.” President Trump on the US-China trade talks, 26 November, Bloomberg. ​ We are upgrading our global growth forecasts in response to

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Taking stock of our 2019 views

Taking stock of our 2019 views

🕔17:40, 3.dec 2019

We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls. In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been

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From one-man show to teamwork – the new style at the ECB?

From one-man show to teamwork – the new style at the ECB?

🕔11:09, 29.nov 2019

No sooner had Mario Draghi finished his press conference in September that the deep divisions within the ECB governing council were laid bare. In an unprecedented action, the heads of the Austrian, German, French and Dutch central banks publicly criticized

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Ecb Qe2 Starts On A Strong Foot With A Tilt To The Private Sector

Ecb Qe2 Starts On A Strong Foot With A Tilt To The Private Sector

🕔12:09, 20.nov 2019

ECB QE2 started off on a strong foot, according to data released on Monday regarding the very first week of purchases. The overall increase in holdings of the four QE programmes was quite high for just one week relative to

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Monthly Investment Outlook – Mind the Gap

Monthly Investment Outlook – Mind the Gap

🕔18:29, 18.nov 2019

October 2019 US and ECB communications revealed divided opinions on the prospect for more aggressive stimulus looking ahead despite stress in US money markets. As a result, investors may face a ‘gap’ between limited monetary policy support and emerging fiscal

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Wat betekent Draghi’s erfenis voor de toekomst?

Wat betekent Draghi’s erfenis voor de toekomst?

🕔11:06, 15.nov 2019

Iedere president van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) wordt herinnerd op basis van zijn of haar bekendste uitspraak. Bij Wim Duisenberg was dat: “I hear you, but I do not listen”. Daarmee gaf hij aan dat hij wel wist wat

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Liquidity trumps uncertainty

Liquidity trumps uncertainty

🕔07:30, 14.nov 2019

Russ explains why monetary easing matters more than geopolitical risks for the markets right now. Absent a year-end meltdown, stocks will have enjoyed a stellar year. That stocks would post +20% gains was not obvious back in January, when investors

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔08:34, 12.nov 2019

Quarterly Update  Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will

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Investment Strategy

Investment Strategy

🕔18:31, 11.nov 2019

Global Liquidity In September, equity markets were supported by further monetary stimulus around the world. The Federal Reserve carried out its second rate cut last month, while the ECB announced a new open-ended asset purchase programme starting in November. On

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European Business Cycle Indicators. 3rd Quarter 2019

European Business Cycle Indicators. 3rd Quarter 2019

🕔18:25, 11.nov 2019

Special topic Additional results from quarterly business surveys – focus on trends in manufacturing

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Economic Bulletin

Economic Bulletin

🕔11:04, 8.nov 2019

Update on economic and monetary developments The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside. In particular, these risks pertain to the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.

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Report on the financial accounting implications of the transition from EONIA to the €STR and the introduction of €STR-based fallbacks for EURIBOR

Report on the financial accounting implications of the transition from EONIA to the €STR and the introduction of €STR-based fallbacks for EURIBOR

🕔12:47, 6.nov 2019

Report by the working group on: euro risk-free rates On the financial accounting implications of the transition from EONIA to the €STR and the introduction of €STR-based fallbacks for EURIBOR This report by the working group on euro risk-free rates

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Review of markets over October 2019

🕔15:29, 1.nov 2019

Financial markets welcomed signs of an easing in geopolitical tensions in October, with risk assets generally outperforming traditional safe havens. The US and Chinese authorities moved closer to agreeing a partial deal on trade, while the UK once again edged

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Farewell to Draghi

Farewell to Draghi

🕔07:58, 30.okt 2019

Mario Draghi's last press conference as president of the ECB focused on general questions relating to his term of office. There was nothing new on monetary policy. Draghi pointed out that the decisions on an extensive monetary easing through various

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Building portfolio ballast with bonds

Building portfolio ballast with bonds

🕔07:41, 23.okt 2019

We believe raising portfolio resilience via government bonds is crucial amid elevated macro uncertainty. Scott explains. Recent weak economic data has raised market concerns that economic gloom might be spreading beyond the manufacturing sector. Worries that the drag on economic

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The economic outlook for the euro area

The economic outlook for the euro area

🕔16:28, 22.okt 2019

Presentatien by: Philip R. Lane Member of the Executive Board the euro area is facing a more extended slowdown than previously expected the convergence of inflation towards the inflation aim has recently slowed and partly reversed the ECB’s monetary policy

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Farewell to Draghi and United Kingdom?

Farewell to Draghi and United Kingdom?

🕔16:08, 22.okt 2019

Next week, the Brexit issue will probably continue to dominate the markets. The ever-sooner deadline of October 31 is likely to increase the pressure on the negotiators and thus the nervousness in the markets, as we expect Boris Johnson to

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To Zero and Beyond!

To Zero and Beyond!

🕔18:04, 21.okt 2019

Fans of the film Toy Story will recognize Buzz Lightyear’s spunky catchphrase “To infinity and beyond!” Well, interest rates around the world are navigating their own journey, voyaging toward the abyss of the yield universe rather than its outer limits,

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Negative EUR Rates: challenges & solutions UBP

Negative EUR Rates: challenges & solutions UBP

🕔11:44, 21.okt 2019

The ECB has been missing on its inflation target for 10 years The ECB never got to the “tightening window” In 2013, cash was yielding zero, now it is the EUR Aggregate market… …however, the EUR Aggregate market bears some

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Draghi’s last act likely to disappoint

Draghi’s last act likely to disappoint

🕔13:07, 4.okt 2019

On September 12 the Governing Council of the ECB announced an extensive package of the monetary stimulus. It includes a deposit rate cut to -0.5%, the asset purchases program restarting November 1st, two-tier system for banks and easing of the

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ECB: waiting for the strategy review

ECB: waiting for the strategy review

🕔15:36, 2.okt 2019

Our narrative on the US economy is relatively simple: for now, while the export-driven side of the economy is struggling, and investment in general is impaired by looming uncertainty with the “trade war” at the top rank of risks, the

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Review of markets over the third quarter of 2019

Review of markets over the third quarter of 2019

🕔16:29, 1.okt 2019

After a difficult summer for risk assets, investors returned from their holidays in a bullish mood and drove equities higher in September, leaving global equities broadly flat for the quarter. The quarter was marked by a continued slowdown in the

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A growth recovery looming ahead

A growth recovery looming ahead

🕔07:28, 1.okt 2019

Elga explains why we see a growth pickup looming on the horizon. Hint: Watch the transmission of financial conditions. An expected dovish pivot by central banks has materialized. Now what? Financial conditions in key developed economies have become more accommodative

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Toward effective economic policy for the 21st century

Toward effective economic policy for the 21st century

🕔07:24, 30.sep 2019

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight their view that effective monetary and fiscal policy in the 21st Century needs to draw not only traditional economic theory, but also from the lessons of finance and other disciplines. We think the evidence

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Remarks on monetary policy

Remarks on monetary policy

🕔08:39, 26.sep 2019

Philip R. Lane Member of the Executive Board Keynote speech at Bloomberg London 16 September 2019

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Zoek

Asset Allocation Consensus September

Evenementen

  1. InsingerGilissen – ‘duurzaam beleggen is de nieuwe norm’

    december 10 @ 08:30 - 11:30
  2. IPF – Besturen en beleggen in 2020

    december 12 @ 10:00 - 16:00
  3. CFA – Macro-economic forecast for 2020

    december 12 @ 15:30 - 19:00
  4. JP Morgan – 2020: A make or break year?

    december 12 @ 17:30 - 21:30
  5. Asset Management Kerstborrel

    december 17 @ 17:30 - 22:00

Twitter

Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!

Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP

De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx

Obligaties uit frontier markets keren nog wel hoge coupons uit en de default-kans is verrassend laag. "Er moet veel gebeuren om negatief te eindigen," zegt Thomas Christiansen van @UBP_Group @IEXProfs https://t.co/gDP9nspIJw

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