Credit Continuum Monetary stimulus measures and high levels of cash continue to support spread tightening between now and year end. The rally in credit markets has continued in May given Federal Reserve and European Central Bank support measures and the
Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.
Week Ahead Focus: ECB Council meeting, EU Recovery Fund The ECB’s Governing Council is to meet next week. We expect the PEPP purchasing program to be increased by EUR 500bn. While the Governing …
Research & Strategy Insights The European Commission “doubled down” on the Franco-German initiative and came out with a bigger quantum for its “Next Generation” package and proposals for new “own resources”. This is politically important. While we are still very
In March, the ECB activated a “pandemic emergency purchasing program” (PEPP) for a an additional €750bn. In total, the ECB have approximately …
#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”
The ECB has to deal with a nasty form of circularity: doubts on its capacity to break its self-imposed limits – further fueled by the recent decision of the German Constitutional Court – trigger bond offloading in some of …
Quality Report 2019 This annual report provides a quality review of the quarterly euro area and national financial accounts. The report fulfils the formal requirement for the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) to inform its Governing Council
Issues note on liquidity in the corporate bond and commercial paper markets, the procyclical impact of downgrades and implications for asset managers and insurers The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and the measures necessary to contain it have brought a severe and
#20 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro And it’s Saturday again: the day for us to publish our Top Five Best Read on OpinioPro this last week. Populair tags were ‘asset allocation‘ and ‘equities‘, furthermore our event calendar
April 2020 The Covid-19’s economic damages start to be felt, we expect an unprecedented GDP contraction in Q2 in both, Europe and the US. Tentative signs of recovery in China. The policy action in the US has been quick and
The court ordered the German government to ensure the ECB carried out a “proportionality assessment” of its vast purchases of government bonds. Whilst the ECB should be successful in proving that its purchase scheme was necessary and “proportional”, further expansion
Weekly commentary A decision by the German constitutional court last week could potentially undermine the independence of the European Central Bank (ECB) – and threaten to fuel fragmentation within the euro area in the long run. This comes as the
The results of Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have to be seen in the context of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent mitigation measures. 1 Expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were
Research & Strategy Insights Most continental European countries have by now relaxed the conditions of their lockdown to some extent or are about to do so. We continue to expect a much better second half of 2020, but we are
2019 marked the 20th anniversary of the introduction of the euro, and support for the single currency among euro area citizens reached an all-time high of 76% in the November Eurobarometer poll.
Week Ahead Focus: German Federal Constitutional Court ruling, US Labor Market Report, Eurozone public debt This week, the German Federal Constitutional Court ruled on a lawsuit against the purchase of government bonds by the ECB and thus the Bundesbank under
Rates in lockdown for longer With the outbreak of the coronavirus hitting the global economy, central banks have stepped up to the plate by delivering significant amounts of easing. Official yields are now at or below zero for all developed
Research & Strategy Insights Flows of new bank loans to the corporate sector reached a record high in March in the Euro area, and the European Central Bank (ECB)’s Bank Lending Survey suggests that credit institutions are planning to ease
Short Note ECB ECB Council Meeting At its meeting which ended today, the Governing Council decided on two further measures aimed primarily at ensuring that banks had sufficient liquidity at low interest rates. The ultimate goal is to keep lending
Week Ahead Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last
Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations
Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0%-0.25% after its second emergency cut in less than two weeks. The ECB keeps its rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.
Scott explains how the extraordinary outbreak-fighting policy action – and recent market turbulence – has changed our view on credit. We see improving outlook for credit – with unprecedented policy action to limit the coronavirus shock in place and sharply
Growth in CEE to dive deeper into negative territory Recent developments have deprived us of optimism and we revise our CEE growth forecast down to -4.7% this year. March PMI indices in Germany and the Eurozone plunged, dragged down by
"Our midyear #outlook" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/blackrock/our-midyear-outlook/
"Monthly Must-Reads" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/opiniopro-selection/monthly-must-reads/
"Road to Recovery" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/opiniopro-selection/road-to-recovery/ #recovery #credit #monetarystimulus #spreads
"Investment Strategy Commentary: Will the V Become a W?" -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/07/northern-trust/investment-strategy-commentary-will-the-v-become-a-w/
