Economic and Strategy Viewpoint December 2019 “We're in the final throes of a very important deal… it's going very well.” President Trump on the US-China trade talks, 26 November, Bloomberg. We are upgrading our global growth forecasts in response to
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls. In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been
No sooner had Mario Draghi finished his press conference in September that the deep divisions within the ECB governing council were laid bare. In an unprecedented action, the heads of the Austrian, German, French and Dutch central banks publicly criticized
ECB QE2 started off on a strong foot, according to data released on Monday regarding the very first week of purchases. The overall increase in holdings of the four QE programmes was quite high for just one week relative to
October 2019 US and ECB communications revealed divided opinions on the prospect for more aggressive stimulus looking ahead despite stress in US money markets. As a result, investors may face a ‘gap’ between limited monetary policy support and emerging fiscal
Iedere president van de Europese Centrale Bank (ECB) wordt herinnerd op basis van zijn of haar bekendste uitspraak. Bij Wim Duisenberg was dat: “I hear you, but I do not listen”. Daarmee gaf hij aan dat hij wel wist wat
Russ explains why monetary easing matters more than geopolitical risks for the markets right now. Absent a year-end meltdown, stocks will have enjoyed a stellar year. That stocks would post +20% gains was not obvious back in January, when investors
Quarterly Update Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will
Global Liquidity In September, equity markets were supported by further monetary stimulus around the world. The Federal Reserve carried out its second rate cut last month, while the ECB announced a new open-ended asset purchase programme starting in November. On
Special topic Additional results from quarterly business surveys – focus on trends in manufacturing
Update on economic and monetary developments The risks surrounding the euro area growth outlook remain on the downside. In particular, these risks pertain to the prolonged presence of uncertainties, related to geopolitical factors, rising protectionism and vulnerabilities in emerging markets.
Report by the working group on: euro risk-free rates On the financial accounting implications of the transition from EONIA to the €STR and the introduction of €STR-based fallbacks for EURIBOR This report by the working group on euro risk-free rates
Financial markets welcomed signs of an easing in geopolitical tensions in October, with risk assets generally outperforming traditional safe havens. The US and Chinese authorities moved closer to agreeing a partial deal on trade, while the UK once again edged
Mario Draghi's last press conference as president of the ECB focused on general questions relating to his term of office. There was nothing new on monetary policy. Draghi pointed out that the decisions on an extensive monetary easing through various
We believe raising portfolio resilience via government bonds is crucial amid elevated macro uncertainty. Scott explains. Recent weak economic data has raised market concerns that economic gloom might be spreading beyond the manufacturing sector. Worries that the drag on economic
Presentatien by: Philip R. Lane Member of the Executive Board the euro area is facing a more extended slowdown than previously expected the convergence of inflation towards the inflation aim has recently slowed and partly reversed the ECB’s monetary policy
Next week, the Brexit issue will probably continue to dominate the markets. The ever-sooner deadline of October 31 is likely to increase the pressure on the negotiators and thus the nervousness in the markets, as we expect Boris Johnson to
Fans of the film Toy Story will recognize Buzz Lightyear’s spunky catchphrase “To infinity and beyond!” Well, interest rates around the world are navigating their own journey, voyaging toward the abyss of the yield universe rather than its outer limits,
The ECB has been missing on its inflation target for 10 years The ECB never got to the “tightening window” In 2013, cash was yielding zero, now it is the EUR Aggregate market… …however, the EUR Aggregate market bears some
On September 12 the Governing Council of the ECB announced an extensive package of the monetary stimulus. It includes a deposit rate cut to -0.5%, the asset purchases program restarting November 1st, two-tier system for banks and easing of the
Our narrative on the US economy is relatively simple: for now, while the export-driven side of the economy is struggling, and investment in general is impaired by looming uncertainty with the “trade war” at the top rank of risks, the
After a difficult summer for risk assets, investors returned from their holidays in a bullish mood and drove equities higher in September, leaving global equities broadly flat for the quarter. The quarter was marked by a continued slowdown in the
Elga explains why we see a growth pickup looming on the horizon. Hint: Watch the transmission of financial conditions. An expected dovish pivot by central banks has materialized. Now what? Financial conditions in key developed economies have become more accommodative
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback highlight their view that effective monetary and fiscal policy in the 21st Century needs to draw not only traditional economic theory, but also from the lessons of finance and other disciplines. We think the evidence
Philip R. Lane Member of the Executive Board Keynote speech at Bloomberg London 16 September 2019
Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!
Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP
De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx
SAVE THE DATE 4 Februari 2020! #AAA2020 #JubileumEditie https://t.co/RWVaNl0PCk
