Guide to the Markets The text above presents a comprehensive economic and market analysis by the Global Market Insights Strategy Team, led by notable experts such as Nimish Vyas, Vincent Juvyns, and Tilmann Galler. It dives into an array of
More displaced workers seem ready to come back into the labor force, but employers may need to watch their highly compensated “stayers.” One of the key economic side effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and lockdowns was the wholesale departure of
De metaverse biedt een nieuwe wereld van beleggingskansen op het gebied van sociale media, ecommerce, leren op afstand en werken. Zin om op een zwoele zomerdag met een oude vriend aan de oevers van de Seine te gaan lopen? Misschien
Ons model toont welke opkomende landen wellicht het meest kwetsbaar zullen zijn voor Amerikaanse renteverhogingen en welke het meest veerkrachtig zouden moeten zijn. Wanneer Amerika niest, vat de wereld kou. En wanneer 's werelds grootste economie de rente verhoogt, voelen
China will be key to the growth outlook for emerging markets in 2022 …
In recent quarters, US companies handily beat consensus earnings estimates as the economy reopened and earnings were compared to the weakness in the 2020 lockdown periods. This neat showing was always going to be a tough act to follow, particularly
Lithium is now widely accepted as a key metal in the transition to electric vehicles (EVs) on our way to a net-zero economy, as exemplified by US Geological Survey’s (USGS) classification of lithium as a ‘critical mineral resource’. In this
House View Q3 2021: The global economy remains on track for a rapid and broad-based economic recovery from the Covid pandemic. Notwithstanding concerns around new variants of the virus, restrictions are generally being eased, as the vaccine roll-out progresses well,
As economies reopen, stronger economic data demonstrates that the cyclical recovery is progressing well. Signs of an intensifying spread of the Delta variant of Covid-19 are, however, raising questions about the outlook. Worldwide new Covid-19 cases have now plateaued at
It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …
The US economy has decisively rebounded from the lows reached in March and April, but momentum has waned in both the economy and the financial markets as …
De voorbije week in een notendop De Amerikaanse economie creëerde in juni 4,8 miljoen banen, terwijl de werkloosheidsgraad er daalde tot11,1 %. Daarna begon het coronavirus zich sneller te verspreiden in de VS, waardoor de verdere heropening van de …
Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2020 – 2023 The global economy has shifted into a lower gear in the past few quarters. Following a period of strong and broad-based economic momentum, soft spots in the economy emerged in the second
Davos brief The global economic expansion is stretching, but powerful structural trends are testing limits — and intersecting with the near-term outlook. The trends include rising inequality and social unrest; deglobalization and fragmentation into trade blocs; an intensifying focus
Emerging markets are a lot less emerging than they used to be. A more integrated global economy means that the world has become smaller. Investors and managers no longer suffer from limited visibility into markets, and the transparency around the
TIFF Insights An Interview with Scott Malpass and Jay Willoughby Introduction In the recent past, American investors’ views on China have rotated from unblemished enthusiasm to substantial caution. From the radical reforms of Deng Xiaoping in 1978 until quite recently,
Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation
Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, discusses the factors driving the rallies in stock and bond markets year to date and why he believes the global economy is vulnerable to a deflationary shock. There is a striking disparity between
Weekly Economic Commentary To obtain an economics degree at the University of Chicago, students were required to take a year-long course in the history of a non-Western civilization. Economics is a social science, after all, and business cultures can vary
Week Ahead Focus: New Yield Forecasts On interest rate markets, concerns about an economic slowdown that goes beyond its current magnitude continue to prevail. Sentiment and risks, rather than available data, are crucial. In fact, first quarter GDP growth in
The EU economy is entering a period of heightened uncertainty, which has implications for fiscal policy. Much of the fiscal uncertainty comes in the short run from the business cycle and in the long run from potential growth, interest rates
Research & Strategy Insights Asia’s exports have witnessed rapid expansion over the past decades. Its share in world exports went from below 5% to the current 23%, second only to the Eurozone. Asia’s trade is not only important in a
China is at a crossroads. After years of heady growth, it now faces a potent mix of external and internal challenges that threaten to curb its momentum. Its prospects will hinge on how well it responds to these challenges, on
China is at a crossroads. After years of heady growth, it now faces a potent mix of external and internal challenges that threaten to curb its momentum. Its prospects will hinge on how well it responds to these challenges, on
The Southeast Asia economy has enjoyed a solid run in the last two years with GDP growth of 5.2% in 2017 and 2018. This followed a 4.6% average annual pace in the three years to 2016 and was just a
I am not a China specialist. This report is the result of several months of thought about the Chinese economy and the situation China is in, facing a trade war with the US at the same time as the economy
Investment Letter De groei van de eurozone-economie zwakt af. Italië bevindt zich in een recessie, terwijl Duitsland deze nipt wist te vermijden. Andere eurolanden, zoals Spanje en Nederland, doen het beter. De binnenlandse bestedingen blijven daar op peil. De ECB
Interest rates: We continue to expect [the key ECB interest rates] to remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019… Reinvestments: We intend to continue reinvesting, in full, the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under
Recently, multiple research and press articles have discussed the apparent drastic decrease in the number of listed companies in the U.S. Some articles state decreases of 20% to over 50% to support claims that the U.S. stock market is getting
The incoming information that has become available since the Governing Council’s decision to end net asset purchases in December 2018 has continued to be weaker than expected on account of softer external demand and some country and sector-specific factors. In
U.S. Economic & Interest rate outlook We entered the year wondering if the economic tides had turned. Risk appetite fell and volatility spiked amid a strong negative market reaction to the Federal Reserve’s rate increase in December. But markets caught
Call it superstitious, but we in Applied Equity Advisors are always uncomfortable producing our market outlook commentary for the following year until the current year is complete. Much can happen in December that could impact our projections about the coming
If you are feeling particularly uncertain about investing heading into 2019, you’re not alone. With major economies entering late-cycle territory, volatility rising, monetary policy tightening and a trade war brewing, you may be wondering how to position your portfolio.
2018 ended with outsized volatility in equity markets. Even on days with no particular news for the market to digest, the normally quiet final week of the year featured dramatic price swings. Analysts blamed the market’s anxiety on falling economic
2018 ended with outsized volatility in equity markets. Even on days with no particular news for the market to digest, the normally quiet final week of the year featured dramatic price swings. Analysts blamed the market’s anxiety on falling economic
Trade war and Federal Reserve weigh on global economy The global economic environment has deteriorated noticeably in the 2nd half of 2018. In our opinion the main reasons for this are the geopolitical agenda of the Trump administration (e.g. the
The economic expansion of the last decade has been a consistent tailwind for financial assets. We see next year as the start of the twilight zone between expansion and an eventual downturn that will likely mark the end of the
The Aviva Investors House View document is a comprehensive compilation of views and analysis from the major investment teams. The document is produced quarterly by our investment professionals and is overseen by the Investment Strategy team. Each quarter we hold a
White Paper Overoptimism and overconfidence are two well-known psychological traits of our species. They are particularly dangerous in the late stages of an economic cycle where these terrible twins result in investors overestimating return and underestimating risk – a potentially
Weekly Economic Commentary Over the past few decades, China has transformed itself from a minor economy with little global trade to the world’s largest exporter. China is now commonly referred to as the world’s factory, for good reason. Besides low
At its monetary policy meeting on 13 December, the Governing Council decided to end the net asset purchases in December 2018, while keeping the key ECB interest rates unchanged and enhancing the forward guidance on reinvestment. While incoming information has
If you are feeling particularly uncertain about investing heading into 2019, you’re not alone. With major economies entering late-cycle territory, volatility rising, monetary policy tightening and a trade war brewing, you may be wondering how to position your portfolio.
The global economy has received some potential signs of respite lately—US monetary policy is likely to be looser than expected, oil prices have fallen and there is a pause in the US-China trade war—but this will not be enough to
Special Macro Topics Black swan events are ones that are out of the realms of possibilities at least as envisaged by market participants. For 2018, perhaps the only black swan event was the US-North Korean peace summit in June. As
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019. The temporary (90-day) truce between the U.S. and China is
The global economy looks set to move into a lower gear as both advanced and emerging economies will find it hard to extend their recent robust economic performance into 2019. The temporary (90-day) truce between the U.S. and China is
Multi Asset Outlook We expect global growth rates to continue favoring the US into the spring of 2019 before others “converge up” in the back half of the year. Negligible spreads suggest there is more potential in taking enterprise risks
There is much discussion about “superstar” firms and “superstar effects” in reaction to the rapid growth of very large global companies. This has been accompanied by a growing body of research examining various aspects and drivers of superstar effects in
Investment Outlook 2019 The bull market of the last few years has caused a number of noticeable differences within asset classes. We highlight some of them in this outlook, as we think that these will offer good investment opportunities in
Big Data Is Changing Inflation
👤Northern Trust 🕔07:00, 18.May 2019Wie Gehts mit Deutschland? Fresh from a family vacation in Germany, Ryan shares an outlook on the country. Foreign drivers in Germany are often excited about the unchecked speed limits on the Autobahn. But in my rental car, I was
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