What to watch: Nigeria beyond the elections, Eurozone mortgages and China’s reopening. Market movers Nigeria – Beyond the election transition. As Nigeria heads to the polls on 25 February, economic headwinds are intensifying. The next government will need to address
Below are some takeaways by Capital Group’s emerging market sovereign debt analyst Thomas Kontchou on important economic and policy considerations given the leftist candidate Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s victory in Brazil’s presidential election. The leftist Workers’ Party candidate Luiz
With only days to go, the wild 2022 midterms continue apace. From Democrats funding “MAGA Republicans” in primary races, to former President Trump trying his hand as kingmaker, to sacrosanct Democrat seats and governorships at risk of being flipped (we’re
Centrist Emmanuel Macron was set to secure a second term as France’s president, heralding a deepening of European integration at a time the continent is under extraordinary stress. Macron fended off a challenge by euroscepticMarine Le Pen for the second
It’s a bit early to say how next year’s mid-term elections will go. That’s doubly true in terms of potential market implications. U.S. electoral history and some early signs in the data suggest that Republicans should do reasonably well in
KEY POINTS Potential treatments/vaccines for COVID‑19, policy support, and gradually reopening economies make us more comfortable taking a pro-risk stance over our 12-month time frame. However, the market’s rebound and the prospect of a slow economic recovery leave us only moderately bullish
Key points Polls suggest the general mood in the US is gloomy and the electorate disapproving Trump on many key election issues, according to RealClearPolitics. Media sentiment suggests that Trump is losing ground against Biden both in the entire country
The US A light week for economic data was highlighted by the Labour Department’s monthly non-farm payroll report, showing that employers added 1.4 million jobs in August, a number in line with consensus estimates. Temporary workers who were hired to
The US Stocks drifted higher through much of last week, although the catalysts for the move were perhaps harder to identify than usual, and trading was subdued relative to recent months. The week’s busy economic calendar appeared to play some
Outlook for the 2020 vote, and the potential economic and market consequences Presidential and Congressional Elections are less than 100 days away. However, if the elections were held tomorrow, polls suggest Democrat nominee Joe Biden would win and the Democrats
In many things 90% is just fine; for an economy it is miserable Bankruptcies and the fear of a second wave Life will be hard—at least until a vaccine or a treatment is found
Key takeaways from Super Tuesday: The race to Democratic nomination has boiled down to two candidates now, Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders with Biden being the new frontrunner based on delegate count, market expectations and national polls. The turnout continued
Morning Briefing Since the middle of October, Real Clear Politics' Democratic presidential nomination betting average (see chart) for Elizabeth Warren has declined from over 50% to just 23%. Meanwhile, Joe Biden’s betting average increased from just below 20% to 25%
Capital Markets: Observations and Insights Many people view the 2020 U.S. presidential election as the biggest and most important election in a century. So then it must be immensely important for the stock market’s subsequent performance, right? No, not in
What do we know about the coronavirus based on the latest data? A few weeks ago, zoonotic epidemiologists (scientists who study the transmission of animal borne illnesses to humans) started ringing alarm bells on the coronavirus based on the rising
Primary stages Compared to 2016, the progressive candidates' performance so far has been rather disappointing. The vote share of moderate Democrats on the other hand has held up very well. We remain doubtful that Sanders can win the nomination
2020 is begonnen met de ondertekening van een gedeeltelijk handelsakkoord door de VS en China. Wat een verschil in een jaar tijd! De handelsoorlog die heel 2019 heeft gewoed, de aandelen uit de groeilanden naar beneden heeft getrokken en de
A letter to investors from Darrell L. Cronk December 2019 2019 was largely characterized by a tug-of-war between substantial geopolitical drags and offsetting global monetary policy easing. The third slowdown of this expansion took hold at midyear, once again creating
20/20 Vision Founding father and Philadelphia’s adopted son Benjamin Franklin is commonly credited with the invention of bifocals. He created them to fix his dual near- and far-sightedness. In August 1784, he wrote that he was “happy in the invention of double spectacles, which
Uncommon truths It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Despite current geopolitical tensions, our surprises display a sense of hope (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what may happen even if they
Since the 2016 EU referendum, the UK equity market has felt like the land that time forgot. Greater clarity over Brexit and UK politics should not only spur an immediate stock market rally but also encourage a longer-lasting reappraisal of UK-listed companies.
‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Monitor'
Week Ahead Trade agreement before December 15? The most important event for the global markets next week will be the decision on further US tariffs on Chinese imports from December 15. This will affect annual imports of about USD 150bn;
October has been dominated by big political misses. But central banks have once again set the tone for capital markets, pushing them to new highs. October was all about talk of deals and crucial dead-lines. What happened? The deals got
Lega leader Salvini's doubts about the continued existence of the governing coalition were followed by Prime Minister Conte's announcement that he would convene parliament next week to ask for a vote of confidence. Early elections have therefore become very likely
Monitor Brexit with the ‘OpinioPro Brexit Search Index’ Brexit and OpinioPro Brexit Monitor. Internet search for ‘brexit’ made an incredible peak in 2016 and returned in the limelight around the deadline in 2019. Context level: The peak of 260.000 would
Cio views Increased risk requires a cautious attitude This month’s topic: the 2020 us presidential election: another close race?
Due to take place on 23-26 May, the European Parliamentary (EP) elections are approaching fast. The final results will be communicated in the evening of 26 May At the time of writing, if polls are correct (1), the two mainstream
Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered
Author: Martin Wolburg / Paolo Zanghieri The May 23-26 European Elections will likely result in a big gain of seats by Eurosceptics. We expect a coalition of Conservatives, Socialists and Liberals or Greens to retain a pro-EU majority in the
Key points Populists look set to make strong gains at the European elections but our expectation is that centrists will continue to dominate Political fragmentation will likely make the European Parliament less predictable, allowing strategic/temporary alignment of diverse political forces
Verkiezingen worden wel het feest van de democrate genoemd. In India hebben ze dat goed begrepen. De 17e natonale verkiezingen sinds de onafankelijkheid van Groot-Britannië duren maar liefst van 11 april tot 19 mei. Op 23 mei wordt de uitslag
Europe Insights Due to take place on 23-26 May, the European Parliamentary (EP) elections are approaching fast. The final results will be communicated in the evening of 26 May At the time of writing, if polls are correct (1), the
Investment Talks The next European Parliament elections will take place on 23-26 May 2019 in the Member States of the European Union. Given the current complex political context, these elections are becoming a sort of referendum on the EU project,
Research & Strategy Insights As many democratic systems have emerged across developing countries, investors have had to be particularly vigilant around political events, such as presidential and general elections. In numerous emerging markets (EM), election years have historically coincided with
The US midterm elections are poised to result in a split Congress, with the Democrats taking the House of Representatives (HoR) and the Republicans holding the Senate, as widely expected. Projections suggest the Democrats are likely to win around 230
Investment Srategy Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic
Investment Talks Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic leadership
Weekly Commentary U.S. midterm elections this week could result in a shift in the balance of power in Washington, but are unlikely to bring any near-term policy shifts. Global equities took a breather after last week’s selloff, but Mexican assets
Investment Talks The outcome: The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT). Post the first round, Bolsonaro appeared to be the favourite, based on discontent with established
Week Ahead US – Trump looks at mid-term elections US Fed – No interest rate hike next week EA – 3Q GPD growth disappoints
Investment Talks The outcome: The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD. An increase in political fragmentation emerged from the election, with the Greens
Investment View De verkiezingen in Brazilië komen op een moeilijk moment, met de presidentskandidaten onder zware druk van de markt om met een geloofwaardig plan te komen om het begrotingstekort te verkleinen. Als de volgende president, die in oktober gekozen
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The hot summer in emerging markets (EM) has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific
By the time this editorial is published, we should have a good idea of the final results of the Swedish general elections. Initial exit polling suggests that, much like the Dutch elections last year, populist forces have not exactly achieved
Investment Talks A new Government: After three months of deadlock, 5Star Movement and the League agreed on a redesigned Government formation. Prof. Conte was again designated as Prime Minister. The “contract” between the two parties will be the “wish list”
Investment Talks Outcome: The electoral outcome (the very positive result of Five Star Movement, now the largest party, and of the Lega Nord in the center right coalition) was not priced by the market. With these results, if confirmed, the
Turkey Watch High economic growth leads to signs of overheating Early elections in June as Erdogan aims to capitalize on economic momentum Lira continues to weaken as central bank remains largely accommodative External vulnerabilities are building, with Turkey first in
Early elections to tame the Turkish tiger Turkish President Erdogan today announced early Presidential and Parliamentary elections for 24th June, well over a year ahead of the previously scheduled date in November 2019. In doing so Turkey now joins a
taly’s election polls show Rome’s fragmented politics; however, a centre-right coalition emerged Rosatellum election law should prevent disruptive M5S from rising to power A centre-right majority could surprise expectations of a hung Parliament
