After nearly three years of zero-COVID policies, the Chinese authorities relaxed most restrictions towards the end of 2022, including “harsh lockdowns, mandatory testing, and centralised quarantine for positive cases and close contacts.” While this relaxation in restrictions has been reportedly
We set out five reasons to consider an allocation to emerging-market smallcaps, from their potential diversification benefits to their lower historical volatility than larger-caps.
The global environment led to sharp outflows from EM debt markets in 2022. The rise in US interest rates (and increase in EM inflation), combined with the increase in general risk premium, reduced the relative attractiveness of EM debt …
The recent surge in commodity prices has amplified the acceleration in inflation that we have been seeing globally, arising from disruption to global supply chains caused by the pandemic. Expectations just a few months ago were that the drivers …
Global economy is slowing, due to the fallout from the Russia-Ukraine war, supply bottlenecks and China’s zero-tolerance Covid-19 policy. CBs will tighten financial conditions to tame persistent inflation. A global recession is not our main scenario, but there are areas
The economic damage from the Russia-Ukraine conflict has made the Emerging Markets (EM) outlook more uncertain. While the uncertainty persists and the final outcome of the war is still difficult to anticipate, we believe that macro fundamentals will be impacted
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
Disappointing US dollar bond returns in EM local currency debt has led to a decline in flows into the asset class over the past decade. In this paper, we discuss the key reasons to invest in EM local currency debt, some of the factors behind the recent weakness in the asset class returns and prospects for the asset class going forward.
Travel restrictions have remained in place in Asia, as markets in Europe and North America have gradually moved towards reopening over the summer. This took place even against the backdrop of rising COVID-19 cases. The justification behind …
The dominant theme in emerging markets over the last few weeks has been Chinese corporate bonds, particularly high-yield issuers, which have cheapened markedly in recent months as the Chinese government tightened policies, particularly in the … Access the content here:
In this paper, we will take a closer look at why it is important to systematically evaluate material ESG risk factors in fundamental credit research across emerging market sovereigns. We go on to discuss the ESG framework we developed for
Zelden speelden in de opkomende economieën zulke krachtige en tegenstrijdige krachten. Dat zorgt voor veel verschillende kansen voor beleggers. Uitzonderlijk sterke en concurrerende economische krachten veranderen drastisch het landschap voor beleggers in opkomende markten (EM). Maar voor wie analytisch …
In recent years we’ve seen a surge of interest in exchange traded funds (ETFs) as a cost efficient and effective way to try and replicate market index performance. But are ETFs as effective as investors think? As part of our
Key takeaways: Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds appear particularly attractive in a world of very low but rising interest rates This is even more true for non-USD investors, which benefit currently from very low hedging costs As a result,
De opkomende markten zijn vorig jaar, in volle Covid19-crisis, kwantitatieve versoepeling beginnen te verkennen. Betekent dit dat kwantitatieve versoepeling nu deel uitmaakt van de monetaire instrumenten? Wat zijn de voordelen en risico's? In het licht van de huidige economische crisis
While the attractiveness of emerging markets in the longer term isn’t in question, a number of obstacles could stop them from outperforming in the coming months. Covid reality Throughout last year, many EMs handled the pandemic much better than the
Yield curves may steepen as growth recovers. EM growth recovered during the second half of last year, but most countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) remains below 2019 levels. The recovery has been led by exports and industrial production, which were
There is one main reason why you, as an investor, should consider Emerging Markets: Growth. People can be hesitant to invest in the region because of political, economic or social issues, but when approached in the right manner, with risk
Some investors view emerging markets in general as risky, and this perception sometimes carries through to emerging market (EM) corporate debt. But the downside experience in this asset class has been remarkably limited. Display 1 shows the losses suffered by
Als we dieper ingaan op vastrentende waarden uit opkomende markten ontdekken we variatie in spreiding, zowel over landen als over kapitaalstructuur.
These are promising times for emerging markets (EM) debt, as we see a number of macro factors aligning in a broad tail wind for the sector. EM economic growth is leading the global recovery, yet EM is the only major sector with broadly attractive valuations. In developed markets, while rates have backed up from their extreme lows at the start of the year, monetary policies continue to anchor core …
UBP’s EM Sustainable Corporate Bond strategy was launched three years ago. Since then, the sustainability …
By nature, the emerging credit market has lower exposure to Covidsensitive sectors (retail, airlines, hospitality, etc.) than its developed markets (DM) peers. This may partly explain why the 2020 default rate …
Na een krimp in 2020 – zij het veel minder dan in de ontwikkelde markten – verwachten we dat de reële bbp-groei in de opkomende markten sterk zal stijgen in 2021, waardoor de kloof met de ontwikkelde markten nog groter wordt. De groei zal gestuurd worden door de regio …
OpinioPro readers found the BNP Paribas AM article the most interesting this week. The article discusses how the switch of many economies ‘’from a depletive to a sustainable model created a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water’’. The three main water-related investing …
Full steam ahead for emerging markets? Five reasons why we believe the EM GDP growth differential with developed markets should widen in 2021 After contracting in 2020 – albeit far less than developed markets – we forecast real GDP growth
The stars are aligning for emerging market local debt. The asset class may have been in the doldrums since the global financial crisis, but it is now poised to outperform thanks to a raft of positive factors – from emerging markets’ solid economic fundamentals and undervalued …
Using credit in asset allocation Investing in EM corporate bonds for income and diversification In asset allocation, emerging market (EM) corporate bonds can be used to help investors achieve a range of objectives, in a range of market environments. In
Outlook If, like a modern-day Rip Van Winkle, you had magically slept through 2020 and then looked at the year-to-date credit returns, you might have thought: “Quite a boring year, then”. Dramatic selloffs have been largely retraced by equally dramatic
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income With investors struggling to find much‑needed yield for their portfolios, we believe a strong opportunity remains within emerging market (EM) local bonds. The yields on offer from a number of EM local
Investment Insights Over the past decade, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened significantly and local currency bond investors have seen little exchange rate returns. In fact, EM exchange rates (FX) have been a major source of volatility … Key Takeaways
Global Asset Allocation Year-to-date growth stocks have outperformed value by over 30%, not only in the downturn given their defensive characteristics, but also during the recovery. While growth stocks have …
Multi-Asset Solutions Weekly Strategy Report China has been leading other major emerging market (EM) equity markets, staging a strong recovery from March’s lows. China’s CSI 300 Index (of onshore stocks traded in Shenzhen and Shanghai) has more than fully recovered
Weekly Market Recap Stocks started last week strong, helped by news of encouraging early test results for a possible coronavirus vaccine. Moderna Therapeutics announced that its …
Market Commentary This is not the first time that Carmen Reinhart has cried wolf. As recently as May 2018, she argued in a Bloomberg interview that rising US inflation and US rate hikes would sink EM, because “more than two-thirds
Market Commentary As of 27 April 2020, eighteen times more people have died from coronavirus per million of population in developed countries (DMs) than in Emerging Markets (EM). This is partly due to measurement problems, but there may also be
Research & Strategy Insights Most continental European countries have by now relaxed the conditions of their lockdown to some extent or are about to do so. We continue to expect a much better second half of 2020, but we are
Investment Insights | Market Stories Macro themes We see 4 key themes underpinning the case for a constructive view on EM: (1) the most important is the Fed acting preventively to prolong the cycle and the impact on the USD;
The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless
Emerging Debt Insights The financial press has given much attention to the rise in corporate debt in emerging countries. The conventional narrative states that abundant liquidity in the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) accompanied an investment boom that
Regional View – EM Emerging market stocks have been a victim of the noise and uncertainty that have dominated headlines this year. Several emerging countries have been in the midst of consequential elections where the surrounding sentiment is not always
UBS House View One trend in global data over the past month has been a return of US economic exceptionalism. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is now running at minus 27 globally, and plus 10 for the US. As it
