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Tag "emerging market debt"
Low Economic Volatility May Continue Supporting Credit
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
An exceptional year for bonds, but finding yield got harder
2020 income outlook The bond market in 2019 was a double-edged sword. Investors pocketed sizable capital gains in most sectors, thanks to plummeting rates. But the flip side hurts: As has often been the case since the 2008 financial crisis, the search for yield
Supply begets demand
In Credit 13 JANUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds The rise (and subsequent fall) in tensions and combative rhetoric in the Middle East has been the key driver for ‘risk ‘free’ assets such as core government bonds. All in all, bonds
Barometer: Aangemoedigd door de opkomende landen
Asset allocatie: vertraging bestrijden Beleidsmakers hebben tot nu toe een forse wereldwijde economische vertraging succesvol weten te voorkomen. De Amerikaanse Federal Reserve en de Europese Centrale Bank hebben de monetaire kraan geopend, terwijl sommige regeringen in opkomende landen fiscale stimuleringsmaatregelen hebben genomen, een voorbeeld
The 2020-2024 EM fixed income outlook
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in
Emerging Markets Debt Monitor
So you are telling me you will start your diet in 2021? Eaton Vance Management, a pioneer in the emergingmarkets debt space, presents the Emerging Markets Debt Monitor. We provide a comprehensive review of the emerging markets landscape through the
Emerging market debt rally set to moderate
Emerging market (EM) debt started 2019 at attractive valuations. This followed a nine-month slide as the US Federal Reserve moved to normalise monetary policy and raise interest rates, which naturally strengthened the dollar and increased EMs’ funding costs. Our forecast
2020 Global Investment Outlook
Executive summary Global growth is near a point of positive inflection and recession fears should ease. The easing in financial conditions, moderation in the drag on growth from the US-China ‘trade war’ and credit and policy-supported stabilisation of the Chinese
Asset allocation outlook
– US and China heading for a trade deal? – Economic recession unlikely – Equity markets over-optimistic – Overweight in Emerging Market Debt expanded
Challenges and Opportunities
African Capital Markets Statement of Purpose CFA Institute Research Foundation is a not-for- profit organization established to promote the development and dissemination of relevant research for investment practitioners worldwide. Where are you going? Where are you coming from?… Ub’ ubiziwe
Keeping Our Heads Down
Keeping Our Heads Down: Why We Remain Defensive on Emerging-Market Debt In March, we wrote about why we were remaining defensive on emerging market debt in light of the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet changes. At the time, we stated that we
Gunpowder, treason & plot.
Macro / government bonds We got the first reading of US GDP for Q3 last week. The economy is actually growing stronger than expected at 1.9% q/q annualised (exp 1.6% / 2.0% in Q2). It remains propped up by a
Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
The macroeconomic and political backdrop is highly uncertain as investors face the final quarter of the year.
Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but
Finding the EM nuances
Emerging market debt is underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop, but the local index is at all-time tights. A differentiated approach seems warranted.
Hard and local currency bonds provide different routes to returns
Emerging market bonds are now a strategic holding for many investors. But the desired result from an allocation to emerging market debt cannot be achieved without first considering the attributes of hard and local currency-denominated bonds — the two broad
Finding value in emerging market debt
In this paper, portfolio manager Robert Neithart shares his thoughts on global themes that are affecting emerging market debt. Can you talk through your broad outlook for emerging markets, given the current uncertainty around growth in both developed and emerging
Quality bias in emerging markets
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns
Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,
Avoiding “diversification decay” in emerging-markets debt
The growth of index-based investing in emergingmarkets debt exposes such strategies to increasing levels of systemic, developed-markets risk. As a result, emerging-markets allocations based on indexes may be less effective as diversifiers in portfolios comprising mostly developed-markets debt. Off-benchmark countries
EM Divergence on the Increase
Portfolio Manager Perspectives BlueBay Emerging Market Debt Update Fall-out from Argentina, combined with global growth concerns, results in increased divergence between EM sub-sectors. Global equity markets were once again volatile with a sell-off to start the week before staging a
A turn in the tide?
Markets at a glance Core government bond yields were sharply lower last week as the US Federal Reserve and Donald Trump gave financial markets much to ponder. On Wednesday, the FOMC reduced interest rates by 25bps, the first move since
EM Fixed Income
Current Strategy | August 2019 We see a range trading environment for EM, supported by Fed monetary easing and likely easing by other major developed and EM central banks. This should offset President Trump’s latest threat to impose new tariffs
Valuation Metrics In Emerging Debt
It has been a very strong year for emerging external sovereign and local currency bond markets. Sovereign credit spreads have fallen, emerging currencies have risen against the U.S. dollar, and local bond markets have also rallied. The EMBIG index is
Uitgelicht
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
