Despite having successfully navigated volatile markets and the uncertain economic outlook in 2020, long-term institutional investors continue to face significant challenges. Surveys show 66% of pension funds consider themselves to be cashflow negative and 53% of those that are cashflow
Interest rate volatility has been the main driver of performance in credit markets over the past couple of months. Heightened inflation expectations drove US Treasury rates sharply higher in March, with 10-year Treasuries reaching levels not seen since January 2020,
These are promising times for emerging markets (EM) debt, as we see a number of macro factors aligning in a broad tail wind for the sector. EM economic growth is leading the global recovery, yet EM is the only major sector with broadly attractive valuations. In developed markets, while rates have backed up from their extreme lows at the start of the year, monetary policies continue to anchor core …
According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Emerging Markets’ Gross domestic product (GDP) should reach 6% and 8.2% for China, on the back of vaccine deployments and accommodative central banks. Combined with attractive credit …
Emerging-market economies did not shut down to the degree that occurred in developed-market economies in the face of COVID-19 in 2020, and neither are they are shutting down as aggressively now. While significant growth downgrades for 2020 …
Governments everywhere are racing to lock in historically low borrowing costs by issuing ever longer dated debt – in recent years Mexico and Argentina even managed to sell century bonds. That presents several new challenges for fixed income investors. Particularly those who own …
Beleggers met allocaties naar obligaties uit opkomende markten moeten nu begrijpen wat de werkelijke impact is op opkomende economieën van langetermijnfactoren zoals de klimaatverandering en de ontwikkeling van menselijk kapitaal.
Rising oil prices are front and center of the markets’ narrative at present. What this potentially means for emerging market (EM) countries and how it impacts inflation and—in particular—currencies were …
The stars are aligning for emerging market local debt. The asset class may have been in the doldrums since the global financial crisis, but it is now poised to outperform thanks to a raft of positive factors – from emerging markets’ solid economic fundamentals and undervalued …
More than zero: Using emerging markets bonds to optimise portfolios There are a number of reasons many investors do not yet have emerging markets (EM) bonds in their portfolio, including awareness, understanding and difficulty of access. All of this means
There are reasons to expect a slower and less comprehensive vaccine roll-out among EMs than in richer countries, and the fiscal damage done to already-fragile sovereign balance sheets may increase vulnerabilities. But the steady recovery of the asset class since
The legacy of Covid-19 in emerging markets (EMs) may take some time to become clear. Having lagged advanced economies’ initial surge in cases in March and April, lower income countries experienced highly concerning case growth at the end of the
#EmergingMarketDebt In December of 2020, Capital Group published an outlook for emerging market debt. In this paper the global macro environment and the development of the pandemic are pointed to as the drivers for the returns of emerging market debt
Investment Insights 2020 was a volatile year for emerging markets (EM). EM debt faced underperformance during the first half of the year, a sharp retracement and outperformance relative to developed markets during the early summer, and subsequent bouts of intermittent
December 2020 Emerging-market debt (EMD) continued to benefit from a broad market rally in the third quarter of 2020, with local-currency sovereign EMD, hard-currency sovereign and corporate credit all posting positive returns. We hold a higher conviction for currencies, as
Investment Insights The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus
Investment Insights Emerging market debt (EMD) has already broadened and deepened significantly in the last few decades and as the asset class has developed, it has become more appealing to a broader investor base. Issuance has increased, thereby improving liquidity.
On the back of a second-quarter rally across emerging market debt (EMD), sovereign bond vulnerabilities still vary signifi cantly by region and country. Lower oil prices offer a boost to oil importers like the Dominican Republic, but if prices fall
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as local-currency debt. We believe the market has entered a new phase following the broad-based recovery in the second quarter that will
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as …
While the coronavirus has dealt a painful blow to many of the emerging-market economies, we see the challenges arising from this episode as only one of several sets of factors likely to determine EM vulnerability and performance over the medium
The second quarter represented a dramatic rebound for financial markets, including emerging markets, after the severe sell-off in March. While COVID-19 continues to pose a generational challenge to the world and the lives and livelihoods of some of the world’s
We still believe that there is good value across a range of emerging market (EM) debt assets – in absolute terms and relative to other fixed income asset classes Emerging market debt is unlikely to face a broad EM debt
Key takeaways The impact of the recent volatility has varied greatly within emerging markets, particularly between the investment grade and higher yielding parts of the asset class. This has been reflected in the differences in yields in local and hard
Webinar – Emerging Market Debt As uncertainty continues to cloud global markets, Finisterre Capital’s Damien Buchet, CIO Total Return Strategy, will share his outlook for emerging market debt and his expectations for the short and medium term. He will discuss
Investment Insights – Q&A In this Q&A, Capital Group fixed income investment director James Blair discusses the characteristics of emerging market debt, how investors could approach investing in the asset class and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy response to
Webinar – Emerging market debt: How will emerging market debt emerge from this crisis? With COVID-19 impacting markets and economies globally, EM debt is set to be impacted from the increased volatility. Join us to hear from Kirstie Spence, fixed
Frontier debt markets: a growth story After significant growth over the last decade, we believe that it is time for global investors to start considering EM frontier debt as a stand-alone investment opportunity. All of the traditional arguments for allocating
Webinar – Emerging Market Debt Local Currency: “the good, the bad and the ugly” The safety flight into US dollars comes without surprise, especially with the verdict not being out about the economic and human impact of the COVID-19 virus.
While much uncertainty remains, one aspect of the COVID-19 market shock is clear: The Fed will not stand in the way of the economic recovery. By the end of March, the COVID-19 global pandemic had a deep and profound effect on virtually
We downgrade emerging market (EM) local debt to neutral on currency concerns, but still like Asia ex-Japan equities and credit. U.S. stocks extended gains, brushing off poor economic data including a collapse in retail sales and China’s GDP contraction. This
Webinar – Uncovering value in Emerging Market Debt The dramatic global liquidity and confidence shocks related to the spread of COVID-19 and the decline in oil prices caused a fast and intense sell-off: a market combination impacting especially emerging markets’
Frontier debt markets: a growth story After significant growth over the last decade, we believe that it is time for global investors to start considering EM frontier debt as a stand-alone investment opportunity. All of the traditional arguments for allocating
Insights On Global Fixed Income Emerging markets (EM) debt is looking increasingly attractive following the sharp but brief sell-off so far this year. While we remain concerned about the coronavirus and its economic impact, the recent indiscriminate selling means valuations
Introduction The triumph of free markets following the collapse of command economies from 1989 to 1991 made clear which economic system produced superior socioeconomic outcomes – at least, so far as the outcomes could be observed anecdotally. By the 1990s,
Time for a rethink
Webinar – Global Fixed Income markets update The ECB surprised markets this morning by announcing an emergency EUR 750 billion lifeline to mitigate the COVID19’s economic repercussions and support the European economy. Though sizeable, investors are left to wonder whether
In this Q&A, Bradford Godfrey, CFA, Director of Alternative & Asset Allocation Strategies and Institutional Portfolio Manager at Eaton Vance, discusses the firm’s insights on recent developments in the emerging-market debt (EMD) universe. How did EMD perform in the fourth
Monthly Review Sovereign bond yields reached record lows as the outbreak of the coronavirus in Europe initiated a large sell-off globally. 10-year US Treasury yields posted another big monthly decline and outperformed other markets, driven by safe haven demand. German Bund and UK
U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows last week, led by shorter maturities. The yield curve steepened as a result. Plummeting yields supported positive total returns for all but the highest risk sectors. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed)
Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
In Credit – 24 FEBRUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds Core bond yields continue to drift lower in a ‘bull flattening’ amid fears about the spread of the COVIC-19 coronavirus outside of China and most recently in Italy and Korea.
The global sukuk market has enjoyed tremendous growth since 2013. As measured by the Dow Jones Sukuk Total Return Index and the S&P Global High Yield Sukuk Index, the U.S. dollar-denominated sukuk market experienced a compound annualized growth rate of
Diversification is our highest-conviction idea. Institutional investors need to broaden market exposure to more opportunities and risks to reach long-term objectives in today’s low-yield environment. In our view, diversification is about much more than simply having a combination of assets
In this issue New year, new decade, we’re off to the races. None of the doom-and-gloom predictions materialized in 2019. Trade tensions did not spiral into out-of-control trade wars, new tariffs did not have a major macroeconomic impact, the US
Keeping it simple in a complicated world Throughout 2019 we focused on the concept of “Braving the Elements — Surfing the Late Cycle.” We addressed this theme at our Global Investment Forums, held in major cities across the globe…
Low yield in developed market bonds remains a key issue for investors. In this environment, we see the potential for stronger relative returns in emerging market debt, particularly local currency bonds. Heading into 2020, a mix of supportive factors could drive this asset class.
After a positive year of returns in 2019, what are your expectations for the asset class going into 2020? 2019 proved to be a positive year for emerging market (EM) assets, particularly those denominated in USD. Returns were robust despite
Macro environment review The outlook for the Chinese economy is expected to remain challenging in 2020, with further downside risks to growth. That said, our China Fixed Income team expects policymakers should continue to implement proactive fiscal policies while maintaining
Leveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights Spreads on high yield bonds, bank loans, and CLO debt tranches continued to tighten throughout the first few weeks of January amid a backdrop of consistently positive macroeconomic data, a signed Phase One US-China trade agreement,
