On the back of a second-quarter rally across emerging market debt (EMD), sovereign bond vulnerabilities still vary signifi cantly by region and country. Lower oil prices offer a boost to oil importers like the Dominican Republic, but if prices fall
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as local-currency debt. We believe the market has entered a new phase following the broad-based recovery in the second quarter that will
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as …
While the coronavirus has dealt a painful blow to many of the emerging-market economies, we see the challenges arising from this episode as only one of several sets of factors likely to determine EM vulnerability and performance over the medium
The second quarter represented a dramatic rebound for financial markets, including emerging markets, after the severe sell-off in March. While COVID-19 continues to pose a generational challenge to the world and the lives and livelihoods of some of the world’s
We still believe that there is good value across a range of emerging market (EM) debt assets – in absolute terms and relative to other fixed income asset classes Emerging market debt is unlikely to face a broad EM debt
Key takeaways The impact of the recent volatility has varied greatly within emerging markets, particularly between the investment grade and higher yielding parts of the asset class. This has been reflected in the differences in yields in local and hard
Webinar – Emerging Market Debt As uncertainty continues to cloud global markets, Finisterre Capital’s Damien Buchet, CIO Total Return Strategy, will share his outlook for emerging market debt and his expectations for the short and medium term. He will discuss
Investment Insights – Q&A In this Q&A, Capital Group fixed income investment director James Blair discusses the characteristics of emerging market debt, how investors could approach investing in the asset class and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy response to
Webinar – Emerging market debt: How will emerging market debt emerge from this crisis? With COVID-19 impacting markets and economies globally, EM debt is set to be impacted from the increased volatility. Join us to hear from Kirstie Spence, fixed
Frontier debt markets: a growth story After significant growth over the last decade, we believe that it is time for global investors to start considering EM frontier debt as a stand-alone investment opportunity. All of the traditional arguments for allocating
Webinar – Emerging Market Debt Local Currency: “the good, the bad and the ugly” The safety flight into US dollars comes without surprise, especially with the verdict not being out about the economic and human impact of the COVID-19 virus.
While much uncertainty remains, one aspect of the COVID-19 market shock is clear: The Fed will not stand in the way of the economic recovery. By the end of March, the COVID-19 global pandemic had a deep and profound effect on virtually
We downgrade emerging market (EM) local debt to neutral on currency concerns, but still like Asia ex-Japan equities and credit. U.S. stocks extended gains, brushing off poor economic data including a collapse in retail sales and China’s GDP contraction. This
Webinar – Uncovering value in Emerging Market Debt The dramatic global liquidity and confidence shocks related to the spread of COVID-19 and the decline in oil prices caused a fast and intense sell-off: a market combination impacting especially emerging markets’
Frontier debt markets: a growth story After significant growth over the last decade, we believe that it is time for global investors to start considering EM frontier debt as a stand-alone investment opportunity. All of the traditional arguments for allocating
Insights On Global Fixed Income Emerging markets (EM) debt is looking increasingly attractive following the sharp but brief sell-off so far this year. While we remain concerned about the coronavirus and its economic impact, the recent indiscriminate selling means valuations
Introduction The triumph of free markets following the collapse of command economies from 1989 to 1991 made clear which economic system produced superior socioeconomic outcomes – at least, so far as the outcomes could be observed anecdotally. By the 1990s,
Time for a rethink
Webinar – Global Fixed Income markets update The ECB surprised markets this morning by announcing an emergency EUR 750 billion lifeline to mitigate the COVID19’s economic repercussions and support the European economy. Though sizeable, investors are left to wonder whether
In this Q&A, Bradford Godfrey, CFA, Director of Alternative & Asset Allocation Strategies and Institutional Portfolio Manager at Eaton Vance, discusses the firm’s insights on recent developments in the emerging-market debt (EMD) universe. How did EMD perform in the fourth
Monthly Review Sovereign bond yields reached record lows as the outbreak of the coronavirus in Europe initiated a large sell-off globally. 10-year US Treasury yields posted another big monthly decline and outperformed other markets, driven by safe haven demand. German Bund and UK
U.S. Treasury yields fell to record lows last week, led by shorter maturities. The yield curve steepened as a result. Plummeting yields supported positive total returns for all but the highest risk sectors. Markets now expect the Federal Reserve (Fed)
Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
In Credit – 24 FEBRUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds Core bond yields continue to drift lower in a ‘bull flattening’ amid fears about the spread of the COVIC-19 coronavirus outside of China and most recently in Italy and Korea.
The global sukuk market has enjoyed tremendous growth since 2013. As measured by the Dow Jones Sukuk Total Return Index and the S&P Global High Yield Sukuk Index, the U.S. dollar-denominated sukuk market experienced a compound annualized growth rate of
Diversification is our highest-conviction idea. Institutional investors need to broaden market exposure to more opportunities and risks to reach long-term objectives in today’s low-yield environment. In our view, diversification is about much more than simply having a combination of assets
In this issue New year, new decade, we’re off to the races. None of the doom-and-gloom predictions materialized in 2019. Trade tensions did not spiral into out-of-control trade wars, new tariffs did not have a major macroeconomic impact, the US
Keeping it simple in a complicated world Throughout 2019 we focused on the concept of “Braving the Elements — Surfing the Late Cycle.” We addressed this theme at our Global Investment Forums, held in major cities across the globe…
Low yield in developed market bonds remains a key issue for investors. In this environment, we see the potential for stronger relative returns in emerging market debt, particularly local currency bonds. Heading into 2020, a mix of supportive factors could drive this asset class.
After a positive year of returns in 2019, what are your expectations for the asset class going into 2020? 2019 proved to be a positive year for emerging market (EM) assets, particularly those denominated in USD. Returns were robust despite
Macro environment review The outlook for the Chinese economy is expected to remain challenging in 2020, with further downside risks to growth. That said, our China Fixed Income team expects policymakers should continue to implement proactive fiscal policies while maintaining
Leveraged Finance Asset Allocation Insights Spreads on high yield bonds, bank loans, and CLO debt tranches continued to tighten throughout the first few weeks of January amid a backdrop of consistently positive macroeconomic data, a signed Phase One US-China trade agreement,
Contents Section 1 – briefly reviews performance in 2019, which can be characterised as a tale of two halves with a happy ending. Section 2 – presents 1-year and 5-year return scenarios for sovereign government bonds, local currency government bonds as well
Thoughts from our Chief Investment Strategist A common reaction to a year of strong fixed income returns in a late-cycle environment is that the perceived lack of value and the potential risks may soon bring a shift in sentiment that
In Credit
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
2020 income outlook The bond market in 2019 was a double-edged sword. Investors pocketed sizable capital gains in most sectors, thanks to plummeting rates. But the flip side hurts: As has often been the case since the 2008 financial crisis, the search for yield
In Credit 13 JANUARY 2020 Macro / government bonds The rise (and subsequent fall) in tensions and combative rhetoric in the Middle East has been the key driver for ‘risk ‘free’ assets such as core government bonds. All in all, bonds
Asset allocatie: vertraging bestrijden Beleidsmakers hebben tot nu toe een forse wereldwijde economische vertraging succesvol weten te voorkomen. De Amerikaanse Federal Reserve en de Europese Centrale Bank hebben de monetaire kraan geopend, terwijl sommige regeringen in opkomende landen fiscale stimuleringsmaatregelen hebben genomen, een voorbeeld
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in
So you are telling me you will start your diet in 2021? Eaton Vance Management, a pioneer in the emergingmarkets debt space, presents the Emerging Markets Debt Monitor. We provide a comprehensive review of the emerging markets landscape through the
Emerging market (EM) debt started 2019 at attractive valuations. This followed a nine-month slide as the US Federal Reserve moved to normalise monetary policy and raise interest rates, which naturally strengthened the dollar and increased EMs’ funding costs. Our forecast
Executive summary Global growth is near a point of positive inflection and recession fears should ease. The easing in financial conditions, moderation in the drag on growth from the US-China ‘trade war’ and credit and policy-supported stabilisation of the Chinese
– US and China heading for a trade deal? – Economic recession unlikely – Equity markets over-optimistic – Overweight in Emerging Market Debt expanded
African Capital Markets Statement of Purpose CFA Institute Research Foundation is a not-for- profit organization established to promote the development and dissemination of relevant research for investment practitioners worldwide. Where are you going? Where are you coming from?… Ub’ ubiziwe
Keeping Our Heads Down: Why We Remain Defensive on Emerging-Market Debt In March, we wrote about why we were remaining defensive on emerging market debt in light of the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet changes. At the time, we stated that we
Macro / government bonds We got the first reading of US GDP for Q3 last week. The economy is actually growing stronger than expected at 1.9% q/q annualised (exp 1.6% / 2.0% in Q2). It remains propped up by a
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but
