Executive summary Global growth is near a point of positive inflection and recession fears should ease. The easing in financial conditions, moderation in the drag on growth from the US-China ‘trade war’ and credit and policy-supported stabilisation of the Chinese
– US and China heading for a trade deal? – Economic recession unlikely – Equity markets over-optimistic – Overweight in Emerging Market Debt expanded
African Capital Markets Statement of Purpose CFA Institute Research Foundation is a not-for- profit organization established to promote the development and dissemination of relevant research for investment practitioners worldwide. Where are you going? Where are you coming from?… Ub’ ubiziwe
Keeping Our Heads Down: Why We Remain Defensive on Emerging-Market Debt In March, we wrote about why we were remaining defensive on emerging market debt in light of the Federal Reserve’s balance-sheet changes. At the time, we stated that we
Macro / government bonds We got the first reading of US GDP for Q3 last week. The economy is actually growing stronger than expected at 1.9% q/q annualised (exp 1.6% / 2.0% in Q2). It remains propped up by a
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
Asset Allocation Navigator Fourth quarter 2019 Central banks cutting interest rates helps, but can’t fully offset the drag on growth from tariffs and trade policy uncertainty. The ‘skinny’ trade deal between the US and China suspends a planned tariff increase in mid-October, but
Emerging market debt is underpinned by a solid fundamental backdrop, but the local index is at all-time tights. A differentiated approach seems warranted.
Emerging market bonds are now a strategic holding for many investors. But the desired result from an allocation to emerging market debt cannot be achieved without first considering the attributes of hard and local currency-denominated bonds — the two broad
In this paper, portfolio manager Robert Neithart shares his thoughts on global themes that are affecting emerging market debt. Can you talk through your broad outlook for emerging markets, given the current uncertainty around growth in both developed and emerging
Investment grade and high yield credit in emerging markets have delivered divergent performance over the summer. Could this trend reverse, or is investor caution warranted in the high yield space?
Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,
The growth of index-based investing in emergingmarkets debt exposes such strategies to increasing levels of systemic, developed-markets risk. As a result, emerging-markets allocations based on indexes may be less effective as diversifiers in portfolios comprising mostly developed-markets debt. Off-benchmark countries
Portfolio Manager Perspectives BlueBay Emerging Market Debt Update Fall-out from Argentina, combined with global growth concerns, results in increased divergence between EM sub-sectors. Global equity markets were once again volatile with a sell-off to start the week before staging a
Markets at a glance Core government bond yields were sharply lower last week as the US Federal Reserve and Donald Trump gave financial markets much to ponder. On Wednesday, the FOMC reduced interest rates by 25bps, the first move since
Current Strategy | August 2019 We see a range trading environment for EM, supported by Fed monetary easing and likely easing by other major developed and EM central banks. This should offset President Trump’s latest threat to impose new tariffs
It has been a very strong year for emerging external sovereign and local currency bond markets. Sovereign credit spreads have fallen, emerging currencies have risen against the U.S. dollar, and local bond markets have also rallied. The EMBIG index is
Weekly Commentary Key points 1 A dovish pivot by global central banks should extend the length of this economic cycle, supporting our upgrade to emerging market (EM) debt. 2 Remarks last week from the chair of the Federal Reserve appeared
Market review The resurgence of trade tensions caused a shift in the backdrop for emerging markets in May, weighing on investors’ appetite for risk. Even so, local bonds ended the month up 0.30%, as measured by the JP Morgan GBI-EM
Avoiding “diversification decay” in emerging-markets debt The threat to diversification posed by indexes – The growth of index-based investing in emergingmarkets debt exposes such strategies to increasing levels of systemic, developed-markets risk. – As a result, emerging-markets allocations based on
Our views for the coming months After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary
Investors turn to social media for tariff-truce updates ahead of a presidential in-person meeting at the G20 in June. Financial market participants spent much of the week monitoring the Twitter account of the US President in an attempt to decipher
Strategy Espresso Regular readers of the Espresso will know that we have been positive on emerging market (EM) local currency debt for some time. Despite escalating trade tensions weighing on market sentiment, we believe this hurdle will be passed, and
Macro/government bonds It has been a busy couple of weeks in terms of economic data releases, though core government bond markets have not moved appreciably on this type of news. Rising trade tension rhetoric between the US and China, as
Emerging Debt – Alpha and Beta Opportunities in the Current Environment Carl Ross, Emerging Market Debt When: Thursday May 16th | 12pm Welcome | 12.30pm Presentation & Lunch Where: Board Room, Gustav Mahlerplein 109-115, 26th floor, Amsterdam
Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!
Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP
De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx
