As emerging markets matured over the last couple decades, many countries began issuing debt, denominated in their respective local currency, rather than US dollars. This has created a valuable sub-asset class worth more than 3 trillion US dollars, alongside US
Key takeaways: Emerging market (EM) investment-grade corporate bonds appear particularly attractive in a world of very low but rising interest rates This is even more true for non-USD investors, which benefit currently from very low hedging costs As a result,
Market participants have closely monitored China’s constantly evolving relationship with the United States. Tensions between the U.S. and China have been exacerbated by trade wars, sanctions, human rights violations, and threats of delisting of Chinese companies on U.S. exchanges. Despite
Disappointing US dollar bond returns in EM local currency debt has led to a decline in flows into the asset class over the past decade. In this paper, we discuss the key reasons to invest in EM local currency debt, some of the factors behind the recent weakness in the asset class returns and prospects for the asset class going forward.
Als we dieper ingaan op vastrentende waarden uit opkomende markten ontdekken we variatie in spreiding, zowel over landen als over kapitaalstructuur.
Corporate debt is the fastest‑growing area of hard currency emerging markets (EM) debt, with almost USD 2.5 trillion outstanding and new issuance averaging 15% of debt outstanding per year since 2011. The asset class generated strong risk‑adjusted returns over the five years ended December 31, 2020, due to the …
Emerging-market economies did not shut down to the degree that occurred in developed-market economies in the face of COVID-19 in 2020, and neither are they are shutting down as aggressively now. While significant growth downgrades for 2020 …
China and its strong economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic have not gone unnoticed. Fourth‑quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth came in at 6.5% year over year, pushing the annual average growth to 2.3% for 2020. China should be the only major economy to record economic growth …
De kredietmarkt in opkomende landen heeft van nature een lagere blootstelling aan Covid-gevoelige sectoren (retail, luchtvaartmaatschappijen, horeca enz.) dan de ontwikkelde markten. Dat kan deels verklaren waarom het wanbetalingspercentage voor 2020 eindigde op 3,5 procent, ruim onder dat van de Amerikaanse high-yield …
What’s in store for emerging markets? Q1 2021 Outlook Emerging markets experienced a strong recovery both in activity and capital inflows in Q4 2020, supported by intense search for yield and a more optimistic global growth outlook thanks to vaccine
In this latest edition of the Multi Asset Conversations, the team share their thoughts on key currencies and the positive impact the vaccine roll-out has had on the EUR, GBP and USD. They also discuss their views about Emerging Markets, a highly disparate universe where markets need to be treated on their individual merits.
When Facebook paid $5.7 billion for a 10% stake in Jio Platforms, the digital technology arm of Indian conglomerate Reliance Industries, it signalled Silicon Valley’s growing enthusiasm for India’s consumer market. Facebook’s main interest in the deal with India’s largest mobile network was to process payments for millions of local retailers via its WhatsApp messaging service, which …
Rising oil prices are front and center of the markets’ narrative at present. What this potentially means for emerging market (EM) countries and how it impacts inflation and—in particular—currencies were …
With investors struggling to find much‑needed yield, we believe emerging market (EM) local bonds offer attractive opportunities. The yields on offer from a number of EM local bond markets are among the highest currently available in fixed income, while EM currencies are attractively valued and look set to benefit from the U.S. dollar cycle …
Why emerging Asian assets will grab a greater share of global investors’ portfolios. A year after the Covid-19 outbreak triggered widespread social and economic upheaval, Asia is emerging out of the crisis stronger and with greater influence on the world stage, pulling the globe’s economic centre of gravity steadily to the East.
The market seems very positive on the global backdrop — do you agree with the consensus views? How will this impact emerging market debt?
We studied every EM crisis since 1987 and found that it can be possible to reap excess returns by only investing in the two years immediatly after a crisis, an approach we call “crisis investing”. We define EM crisis as periods when major EM stock markets drew down al least 50%.
With Chinese New Year celebrations getting underway and 2021 being the Year of the Ox – a symbol of strength and determination – we look at the prospects for Chinese equities. The past several years has seen investors inundated with negative headlines about trade wars and international tensions. But what has been much overlooked is the significant progress China has made in developing its capital markets, which has made investing there more …
With Chinese New Year celebrations getting underway and 2021 being the Year of the Ox – a symbol of strength and determination – we look at the prospects for Chinese equities
Webinar – What will be the key factors driving EM debt markets in 2021? With three quarters of developed market bonds currently trading at negative yields once adjusted for inflation, there is added impetus for investing in emerging market (EM)
Na een krimp in 2020 – zij het veel minder dan in de ontwikkelde markten – verwachten we dat de reële bbp-groei in de opkomende markten sterk zal stijgen in 2021, waardoor de kloof met de ontwikkelde markten nog groter wordt. De groei zal gestuurd worden door de regio …
Has the tide finally turned for emerging markets equities after a decade of trailing US markets? It’s a question we often hear. After two consecutive years of solid gains for the benchmark MSCI Emerging Markets Index, emerging markets appear well positioned for further growth. The US dollar has weakened, commodity prices have …
Full steam ahead for emerging markets? Five reasons why we believe the EM GDP growth differential with developed markets should widen in 2021 After contracting in 2020 – albeit far less than developed markets – we forecast real GDP growth
Value funds—whether global, developed, or emerging—encountered a major style headwind in 2020. Globally, economy‑sensitive value stocks underperformed during the coronavirus pandemic, which was to be expected. Value companies tend to be in traditional sectors that need growth in real economic
More than zero: Using emerging markets bonds to optimise portfolios There are a number of reasons many investors do not yet have emerging markets (EM) bonds in their portfolio, including awareness, understanding and difficulty of access. All of this means
Global emerging markets: gaining momentum Despite its huge impact on health and wellbeing, the Covid-19 pandemic has done little to disrupt the powerful structural trends driving growth in emerging markets (EMs). We expect these trends to gain additional momentum in
There are reasons to expect a slower and less comprehensive vaccine roll-out among EMs than in richer countries, and the fiscal damage done to already-fragile sovereign balance sheets may increase vulnerabilities. But the steady recovery of the asset class since
2020 will been known as the year of the coronavirus as the impact was far reaching and felt by every country in the world. Emerging markets were not immune, but 2020 marked a turning point for emerging markets debt markets
Investment Insights 2020 was a volatile year for emerging markets (EM). EM debt faced underperformance during the first half of the year, a sharp retracement and outperformance relative to developed markets during the early summer, and subsequent bouts of intermittent
2021 Outlook and Beyond The US election outcome and the hopes that the Covid-19 vaccine will be a tangible reality by the end of the year or the beginning of 2021 bode well for a worldwide economic recovery. China is
Investment Insights While each crisis is different, what is striking about this global pandemic is that (excluding China) the impact on emerging market assets appears to be more dire than the spread of the virus itself to those countries. The
Investment Insights Coronavirus-induced lockdowns have wreaked havoc on the global economy. Among emerging and developing countries, those that are heavily dependent on global trade, tourism, commodity exports, and external financing are likely to be the hardest hit, according to the
T. Rowe Price Insights from our Global Fixed Income Team How the prospect of further monetary easing could impact bond markets. Central banks are not done yet. With economic recoveries under threat, several developed market central banks, including the European
October 30, 2020
Emerging markets (EMs) are on the front lines of climate change, facing challenges that could hamper economic development and jeopardise human health and capital assets. Physical climate risks such as extreme heat, droughts, supernormal rain events, water scarcity and poor
The continuing lack of progress in Congress on a new stimulus package seemed to be weighing on sentiment, with investors particularly worried about the building financial pressures on states and municipalities. On Thursday, Republicans brought …
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as local-currency debt. We believe the market has entered a new phase following the broad-based recovery in the second quarter that will
In emerging markets (EM), the path to progress and prosperity is made more difficult by considerable structural challenges. These challenges, such as entrenched economic interests, weak institutional checks and balances and overall lack of physical infrastructure, create barriers to inclusive
Emerging-market (EM) debt rebounded strongly in the second quarter across hard currency sovereign and corporate credit as well as …
Summary for the week ending on Friday, 30 July Last week’s corporate earnings reports demonstrated that some major companies are benefiting from the pandemic’s impact on consumer patterns. This was on clear display Thursday evening, when Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple and
Summary for the week ending on Friday, 30 July Last week’s corporate earnings reports demonstrated that some major companies are benefiting from the pandemic’s impact on consumer patterns. This was on clear display Thursday evening, when Facebook, Amazon.com, Apple and
While the coronavirus has dealt a painful blow to many of the emerging-market economies, we see the challenges arising from this episode as only one of several sets of factors likely to determine EM vulnerability and performance over the medium
This paper highlights five reasons why Emerging Markets (EM) in aggregate are more resilient today than in prior periods. A “healthier” index composition in addition to four other reasons support our analysis that EM drawdowns will be significantly more muted
Webinar – Impact COVID-19 op Emerging en Frontier markten Maandag 29 juni a.s. organiseert TCM Investment Funds het webinar “Impact COVID-19 op Emerging en Frontier markten”. Hiervoor nodigen wij u van harte uit. Fundmanagers Wytze Riemersma en Marco Balk praten
Interview with Portfolio Manager Juliana Hansveden Last Wednesday, 24 June 2020, Nordea AM hosted their weekly Morning Espresso session. The session starts with Sébastien Galy, Senior Macro Strategist, who gives a
The reform of the currency is mainly symbolic In 2019, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU1 ) initiated a shift from the CFA franc, the local currency, to a newly created currency – the eco. This marked the
Upside surprises in labour market data appeared to drive much of last week’s positive sentiment. Stocks rose sharply on Wednesday, following a much smallerthan-expected decline in ADP’s tally of monthly payrolls. The payroll processing …
Market dislocation creating long-term opportunities Two major drivers are shaping the landscape for EM countries: Covid-19 and oil dynamics. We are mindful that current events will have very significant negative effects on the economic outlook for EM this year, leading
Why recent developments could impact the asset class A number of emerging markets (EM) are experimenting with quantitative easing. The fall in oil prices has opened up new opportunities for fixed income investors. There are attractive valuations in select EM
Market Commentary This is not the first time that Carmen Reinhart has cried wolf. As recently as May 2018, she argued in a Bloomberg interview that rising US inflation and US rate hikes would sink EM, because “more than two-thirds
