CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on
It Fooled You Once… Coming out of the annual Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, unsurprisingly, had a strong tone reinforcing the Fed’s intention to fight inflation at any cost, a 180-degree reversal of his ‘inflation is transient’
Key takeaways Chinese equities have had a volatile 2022 so far as the country has had to navigate COVID-19 restrictions, property debt concerns and supply chain constraints among many other headwinds China is becoming an increasingly selective market that requires
It seems obvious to so many that interest rates drive the value trade.1 After all, growth stocks2 have much longerdated cash flows than value stocks and thus should be a “longer duration” asset and move more with longer-term interest rates,
Impact investing originated in philanthropy and started from a need to close a funding gap in private markets. This to a certain extent explains why the traditional purist definition of impact investing remains constrained to certain asset classes. The landscape
Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk
In this note, we provide some historical context to equity bear markets, explore the size of equity drawdowns during economic recessions and analyze the key factors driving the severity of equity drawdowns. Most importantly, we try to answer the question:
In the last century, the correlation of equities to bonds was positive; in recent decades, however, it has been negative. Currently, though, it is rising again; a correlation of less than +0.5 is positive for equities, although it results in
"If there is nothing to compare, there is nothing to criticize." Share prices and investors’ interest in fundamentals often have an inverse relationship over shorter timeframes. In speculative periods when stock pricessoar, investors frequently ignore the underlying earnings, balance sheets,
Impact Investing In terms of asset class, impact investing has traditionally been associated with private capital. Public equities make up just 17% of the USD 502 billion in assets managed in impact strategies1 , a negligible amount compared with the
May’s reprieve proved short-lived as recession joined inflation fears pushing equity/bond prices lower in June. Concerns have risen as the increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric at its June meeting suggests a willingness to trade rising …
Voedselzekerheid is door de Oekraïnecrisis een nog urgenter wereldwijd probleem geworden. Beleggers kunnen helpen om oplossingen te bedenken – van boer tot bord. De forse stijging van de voedselprijzen en de bevoorradingsproblemen, die nog verergerd werden door de Russische invasie
The return of inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty is shaking up equity market leadership. We caught up with Grant Cambridge to discuss why including dividend growers as part of a wider portfolio could help investors dampen these risks, and how 25
Cliff’s Perspective This adds another three months of data to the May entry in our series of value spread updates. Over the past two months, some portion of the market went temporarily (I hope) insane, punishing value, as we measure
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The almost 25% market selloff has removed the S&P 500’s overvaluation, but we are still not at levels generally observed at bear market bottoms. Roughly one-third of our Bear Market Bottom Checklist has triggered. After being outright bearish
Market Themes Whatever It Takes 2.0 Keep On Smiling
Investors are witnessing unprecedented market conditions. Within a turbulent market environment charaterised by a high inflationary pressure, a shift from global to “glocal” trade patterns and a fading era of cheap energy, how can an active and agile multi asset
A further rise in commodity prices is a key channel through which the conflict in Russia/Ukraine might affect the rest of EM. If the commodity price increase is sustained, some EM countries may suffer from a deterioration in the terms
Bad news was good news in July. With recession risks becoming more imminent especially for Europe, markets priced in an earlier easing of monetary policy. For the US, rate cuts are priced in as early as end of Q1 2023.
Summary High inflation, aggressive monetary tightening, and the potential for recession are all global fears. However, for many emerging markets countries, navigating a recovery means taking a clear course of action: keep inflation under control at the risk of slowing
Stock-Bond Correlation Synchronicity Looking across six DMs (Australia, Canada, Germany, Japan, UK, and US), we observe that changes in local currency stock-bond correlations are synchronized (Figure 1).2 Indeed, the correlation of DM local currency stock-bond correlations with US stock-bond correlation
Where is the Low in US Stocks? In a recent piece, I suggested the PE on the S&P 500 had another 1-2 points to lose, so two things now matter most. The E in PE is one factor and, on that score, the outlook is not
Market Perspective Inflation concerns remain at the forefront for central banks and investors as global growth continues to trend lower amid supply disruptions, geopolitical challenges and reduction of liquidity, setting the stage for a challenging macro backdrop. The US Federal
Wisselend beeld voor factoren in turbulent eerste kwartaal Aandelenmarkten startten het jaar met forse verliezen. Voornaamste redenen zijn het verkrappende monetaire beleid van de belangrijkste centrale banken om inflatie te bestrijden en de Russische invasie in Oekraïne. Value, momentum en
Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives | 3Q22 It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war
In this note, we provide some historical context to equity bear markets, explore the size of equity drawdowns during economic …
In our previous outlook, we encouraged investors to tune out “noise” and focus on “signal” — economic and asset class fundamentals evidenced in hard data. We continue to endorse this approach, but acknowledge that even the most diligent followers of
In this paper, we offer quantitative analysis that builds a case for a long-term allocation to non-U.S. small-cap equity. We are often asked by consultants and institutional investors why they should allocate to non-U.S. small-cap strategies. Conventional wisdom is that
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy: The current repricing is a reminder of a regime shift in which stagflationary concerns are becoming prominent. Investors should move towards quality segments in credit and equities, and aim to benefit from the regional divergences that
Valuations were simply not sustainable The first half of 2022 was anything but pleasant for investors, especially those with exposure to the technology sector. Tech stocks across global markets experienced violent sell-offs, and tech indexes are now firmly in bear
Global equities fell in Q2, extending year-to-date declines. The MSCI World Index returned -16.2% in Q2, taking the YTD fall to -20.5%. The market backdrop remained dominated by concerns over higher inflation, rising …
The slump in global equities deepened in the second quarter of 2022 as concerns about a recession replaced fears of high inflation and an escalation of the war in Ukraine seemed less likely. The US Federal Reserve has maintained its
Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.
With today's stressed supply chains and elevated commodities prices, the chart below is food for thought. It shows that …
Drivers and Implications The relationship between stock and bond returns is a fundamental determinant of risk in traditional portfolios. For the past two decades the stock/bond correlation has been consistently negative, and investors have largely been able to rely on
That last two years have been tumultuous to say the least, with a seemingly unending onslaught of challenges (COVID-19 chief among them) impacting economic activity and general daily life. Interestingly, however, forward-looking financial markets have largely been able to take
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Heading into the year, we were bearish and guessed the Fed Put sat between 3,800-4,000. PostUkraine, the strike price is lower. As we began preparing for the 2022 bear market last August, today, we introduce a 10-factor watchlist
The recent surge in commodity prices has amplified the acceleration in inflation that we have been seeing globally, arising from disruption to global supply chains caused by the pandemic. Expectations just a few months ago were that the drivers …
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
May provided a reprieve for investors as a late-month rally in both equities and bonds recouped much of the losses seen early in the month. Economic surprises in the US began to miss consensus expectations in May with a sharp
Overview It gives me great pleasure to introduce our ninth Secular Outlook. T he next five years will be an uphill struggle for investors. High public and corporate debt levels, labour shortages, potential tax hikes and increased levels of state
In today’s environment, small-capitalization stocks in emerging markets (EM) offer compelling reasons for consideration. We believe this universe has big potential, may deliver consistent returns, and can provide diversification in portfolios. The case for active management in this space is
The past decade has been an exceptionally profitable period to be invested in global equity markets, with the MSCI AC World Index averaging 10.6% per annum in the 10 years to 31 March 2022*. Solid GDP growth, low interest rates
De stijgende reële rentevoeten en de bezorgdheid over de vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie wegen op onze vooruitzichten voor aandelen, wat ons ertoe aanzet onze allocatie naar onderwogen te verlagen Activatoewijzing: een zenuwoorlog Inflatie Oorlog COVID Deze eisen elk hun tol
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine offers lessons for navigating the effects of future crises on equity portfolios. Beyond the more obvious dynamics, we have observed that U.S. stocks have other forms of direct and indirect exposures to this conflict. These
Chinese equities have recently outperformed other regions (while bonds have done the reverse). We ask whether this is a dead-cat bounce or the start of a new trend. There are many worries about Chinese stocks but we suspect a lot
De bedrijven van morgen moeten rekening houden met hun werknemers en klanten, het milieu en de maatschappij – en wij moeten de juiste tools hebben om ze te analyseren, zegt Head of ESG Eric Borremans. Hoe hebben duurzame effecten gepresteerd
Since the 1980s, the global economy has been fuelled by an asymmetric capitalism. Significant interventions by governments (fiscal policy) and central banks (rates and QE), particularly during the Covid pandemic over the last two years, have resulted in disparity of
Earnings are priced in to keep rising while inflation is priced in to fall. It rarely works out that way. US equities are down about 10% so far this year, but until the last couple of days, this was driven
Are we witnessing the end of globalisation or are reports of its demise greatly exaggerated? Talha: Globalisation is the process of growing interdependence between the global economies as measured through cross-border trade, finance, information and migration flows. Historically, globalisation has
