Morningstar Investment Management Insights Welcome to the new year. As many readers will know, we tend to assign our yearly outlooks over a 10-year plus horizon, not one. That said, we do believe we have a role to play in
Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that
The Big Picture 2019 has been a good year with strong returns on a broad range of assets. The global economy has decelerated but we hope policy easing will stabilise things during 2020 (the wing and a prayer). Our favoured
Global economy: Trade tensions and broader uncertainty drag on demand and supply The continued slowdown in global growth foreseen a year ago has been accentuated during 2019 by a deterioration in the global industrial cycle. A broad escalation of policy
Based on 12-Month Outlook for Each Asset Class The balance of risks has changed. Some global trade-related risks have abated and manufacturing sentiment appears to be stabilizing. But political risks are rising, including in the U.S., and valuations are high.
House View What a week! Over the course of three days, investors were treated to a triple whammy of encouraging news. First, it was smooth sailing at Christine Lagarde’s first press release as head of the European Central Bank. As
Asset allocatie: vertraging bestrijden Beleidsmakers hebben tot nu toe een forse wereldwijde economische vertraging succesvol weten te voorkomen. De Amerikaanse Federal Reserve en de Europese Centrale Bank hebben de monetaire kraan geopend, terwijl sommige regeringen in opkomende landen fiscale stimuleringsmaatregelen hebben genomen, een voorbeeld
Special editio: 2020 Outlook T he central banks are set to pursue monetary accommo- dation right throughout 2020, reluctant to risk curbing the world economy, which continues to de- velop at a pedestrian pace with no ex- pectations of a
House View 2020 Outlook The document is produced quarterly by our investment professionals and is overseen by the Investment Strategy team. We hold a House View Forum biannually at which the main issues and arguments are introduced, discussed and debated.
The era of micro cycles and disruption is set to continue in 2020. Equity markets continue to fascinate and surprise, with the one constant being a backdrop of uncertainty, driven by a cycle that keeps defying “the rules.” Expectations of reflation and recovery, spurred on by
As it continues to bounce back from a prolonged period of contraction, the Japanese economy offers an attractive opportunity set to investors, says Miyuki Kashima, Head of Japanese Equities, BNY Mellon Asset Management Japan Limited. Economic growth has seen Japan go from
Equity markets in 2020: Watch out for a value rotation Indicators derived from monthly surveys of senior executives at selected companies that help in identifying economic trends. Growth investment style – It aims at investing in the growth potential of a
2019 review: Liquidity driven rally – We look back at a year full of challenges for investors as trade wars flared up again, the UK was beleaguered by Brexit, while unrest and protests elsewhere in the world kept investors on
Let’s Get Cyclical! Cyclical stocks have had an impressive comeback since September, outperforming defensive stocks as investors have become increasingly more confident in the global economy. Trade war abatement, improvement in economic data, and higher bond yields have allowed sectors
Since Mark Denham took over the Carmignac Portfolio Grande Europe fund (SICAV) in 2016, he has demonstrated a rigorous approach to stock selection while also maintaining an unwavering belief in the importance of socially responsible investment. These qualities have led
Focal Point We introduce our proprietary equity valuation tool which provides indications of over- or undervaluation for different sectors and styles of European equities. The regression-based models use macro and financial variables to provide fair value estimates of the ratio between
Global Investment Views As we approach the year-end, a look back over the past 12 months reminds us how unconventional this year of records has been. On the upside, equities rallied to historical highs in December and fixed income returns were also strong
Commentary Despite slowing growth and Britain’s ongoing struggles to map an exit from the E.U., central bank stimulus and falling yields helped European equities to mark their best year since 2009. The benchmark S&P Europe 350 rose 6% in the
Despite slowing growth in the Eurozone, prolonged uncertainty over Britain's exit from the E.U., and global trade conflicts, European equities can look back on their best year since 2009; the benchmark S&P Europe 350 rose 2% this month to complete 2019 with a
What happens after a mid-cycle slow down? Once again, the most likely answer in the current extended cycle appears to be "yet another moderate upswing." In 2020, we expect about 5% in total returns for global equities. And lest that
Asian markets have become polarised over recent months with large-cap stocks driving market gains. As a small-cap investor, Fidelity Asian Values PLC’s Nitin Bajaj reviews a challenging period and outlines some of the unloved areas that he is backing to
Why ESG matters in Emerging Markets Investing according to Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) criteria is increasingly embraced by investors in developed markets. Integrating ESG factors in Emerging Markets can present more of a challenge. Yet the attraction of innovative, higher-growth markets remains, and EM
Investors have been focusing on a range of positives recently, including decent economic data, stronger-than-expected corporate earnings results and a sense that the global economy is stabilizing. Nevertheless, stock prices faltered last week on news that the U.S./China phase-one trade
There are several reasons to be optimistic about Japanese equities in 2020. First, consider valuations. Whether on price-to-book or price-to-earnings, Japanese stocks are among the cheapest in all developed equity markets. Take the price-to-book ratio of the MSCI Japan. Currently
Looking forward to lower returns Equities are currently enjoying their longest ever bull run. Since the March 2009 stock market lows of the financial crisis – with the exception of the final quarter of 2018 – equity markets have climbed
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
