Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%
De financiële markten zijn het nieuwe jaar goed begonnen. Naast de daling van de rente, doordat de inflatie heeft gepiekt en de centrale banken de voet daardoor wat van het rempedaal kunnen halen, zijn ook de bemoedigende tekenen van herstel
Jared Franz, for example, says the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, yet when the economy recovers, it will be stronger than prior rebounds. Meanwhile, Robert Lind argues that European policymakers will likely run looser fiscal policies and tolerate
Unusually, inflation in the Eurozone is well above that of the US. We believe that two important factors, dollar and European gas price strength, are already fading. Hence, we think Eurozone inflation may have peaked and expect it to fall
As the world faces challenges from weakening growth, inflation and policy tightening, the good news for European High Yield investors is that the underlying strength in the asset class has been on an improving trajectory over the last two decades.
A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: Hopes for a continuation of the summer rally off the June lows were dashed in the back half of the third quarter. The inflection lower in risk assets coincided with Fed Chairman Jerome
Impact investing has been challenging in Europe in 2022 Interestingly, a large contributor to the underperformance compared with its benchmark comes from what PIE does not own, rather than what it does. There are some striking observations to make: first,
August 24 marks six months since Russia invaded Ukraine, unleashing a geopolitical crisis that is still reverberating through the global economy. Europe has been on the frontlines of the war, taking in Ukrainian refugees and committing financial and military support
Momenteel is er onrust op de financiële markten. Dit komt met name door hoge inflatiecijfers en monetaire verkrapping, een oorlog op het Europese continent en een dreigende recessie. Hierdoor zijn de markrentes sterk opgelopen, de grootste toename sinds jaren. De
Europe’s energy supply shock is creating a painful stagflation, and policy makers face a difficult set of choices. Looking forward, structurally higher energy prices will be a long-term competitiveness challenge for Europe.
Europe’s energy supply shock is creating a painful stagflation, and policy makers face a difficult set of choices. Looking forward, structurally higher energy prices will be a long-term competitiveness challenge for Europe.
The 2022 Schroders Institutional Investor Study confirms once again how European investors have made sustainability an integral part of their activity, ahead of the global average in the race to net zero, regulatory agenda, and commitment to their role in
Understanding the potential impact of climate change and the interaction between different stakeholders, initiatives, metrics, and tools presents challenges. There is a growing need for investors to understand the risks, opportunities and the impact on investment portfolios that come with
Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
Russia’s war with Ukraine has led to a substantial demand shock from European countries for liquid natural gas (LNG) imports as the EU seeks to reduce its imports of Russian gas by two-thirds. They hope to offset the shortfall primarily
While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The
With inflation at multi-decade highs and growth already slowing, investors were rightfully sceptical about the Fed’s ability to aggressively tackle inflation without sending the economy into recession having waited too long. Now two hikes in and messaging front-loading future hikes
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on
Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash
After a year of managing the challenges of the pandemic, the outlook on the European continent (and beyond) has only become more challenging with the crisis in Ukraine. Our thoughts and hopes are with those who struggle to see a
Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan
Beginning of the End? The more than four-decade bull market for bonds, supported by low inflation and declining rates, that provided a tailwind of price appreciation on top of income, may finally be coming to an end. For bond investors,
After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments
From acquiring medical supplies to ensuring energy security, the coronavirus pandemic and war in Ukraine seem to have taught great economies a thing or two about self-sufficiency. Throughout these events, the US has demonstrated policy and economic flexibilities, while many
In spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2021, European equity markets were buoyant, recovering well from the extreme volatility of the previous year. The S&P Europe 350® was up 26.1% in 2021.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the world, and while the immediate concerns are the human toll on the Ukrainian people, the implications and aftermath will be felt far beyond the region. With the European continent being thrown into chaos
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, more than three decades ago, the NATO had tried to encourage dialogue with Russia. But, since 2014—when the previous severe political crisis between Ukraine and Russia took place, most of the cooperation efforts
European equities are caught in the crosshairs of the war between Russia and Ukraine, down 12.6% Year to Date 1 . Equity risk premiums 2 in Europe have risen sharply owing to accelerating earnings yields despite the recent rise in
Major political economy shifts often coincide with wars or preparation of wars. They do not simply affect how resources are affected to defend against external threats. They also shape priorities on civil spending to maximize internal social cohesion. Building a
Investors’ Outlook: It’s hard to escape the news of a European country and its capital about to be flogged into submission by an aggressive superpower. Kyiv, a beautiful and lively city on a hill above the Dnipro river, has in
Key takeaways The track record of a company’s management team is a key indicator for understanding future potential. There are interesting examples of growing companies attempting to disrupt large industries. Europe is a fertile hunting ground across many different industries.
After deploying a military contingent of nearly 180,000 soldiers around Ukraine's borders, President Putin has considerably toughened the tone towards Kiev, accusing the Ukrainian authorities of wanting to join NATO and of posing a threat to Russia's security. On February
January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors
Equity markets are off to their worst start of the year since 2009 as they continue to price in the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and the probability of over five rate hikes this year. The drawdown in equities has been
Equity markets are off to their worst start of the year since 2009 as they continue to price in the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and the probability of over five rate hikes this year. The drawdown in equities has been
Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe The Federal Reserve turned decisively more hawkish at its December meeting, announcing an acceleration of the pace of tapering, which will now end asset purchases by March, and guided towards a midyear start
Inflation has returned decisively onto the global economic scene. In the United States, headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) reached close to 7% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years; in the euro area it reached close to 5%, the
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …
2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in
The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …
The COVID-19 crisis spurs cohesion, but fresh challenges await The economic shock of COVID-19 and mounting concerns over climate change have fostered improved coordination among European policymakers. We believe this has reduced left tail risks and set the stage for
As European economies have started to recover from the pandemic, there is a clear upturn in confidence among property industry leaders although many are still coming to terms with the radical changes to the business of real estate brought about
Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or
Two factors have interested us in Europe in 2021. First, there has been a value rally since November 2020, particularly in smaller companies. The onset of the pandemic in Europe in early 2020 initially saw value and cyclical stocks, typically
Just as the global economy is finally gaining traction after delta variant setbacks, some economies are facing severe energy shortages, with energy prices up over 70% since last year. The impacts are being felt across Europe, which is facing shortages
After three straight years of stellar performance, European renewable energy stocks have fallen back to earth in 2021. But the future is still bright for green power as the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy gathers pace. In the short
The European economic recovery is well under way: gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Europe’s major economies was stronger than expected over Q2, notably in Italy and Spain. As European economies are opening up, services activity has recovered sharply, boosted
