With inflation at multi-decade highs and growth already slowing, investors were rightfully sceptical about the Fed’s ability to aggressively tackle inflation without sending the economy into recession having waited too long. Now two hikes in and messaging front-loading future hikes
Understanding the potential impact of climate change and the interaction between different stakeholders, initiatives, metrics, and tools presents challenges. There is a growing need for investors to understand the risks, opportunities and the impact on investment portfolios that come with
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on
Households are about to experience the biggest hit to disposable income in a long time. Rising inflation, continued supply chain constraints and now the Russia-Ukraine war have piled on seemingly all at once. The swelling piggybanks from stashing away cash
After a year of managing the challenges of the pandemic, the outlook on the European continent (and beyond) has only become more challenging with the crisis in Ukraine. Our thoughts and hopes are with those who struggle to see a
Evaluating the components of deep value returns in Europe and Japan
Beginning of the End? The more than four-decade bull market for bonds, supported by low inflation and declining rates, that provided a tailwind of price appreciation on top of income, may finally be coming to an end. For bond investors,
From acquiring medical supplies to ensuring energy security, the coronavirus pandemic and war in Ukraine seem to have taught great economies a thing or two about self-sufficiency. Throughout these events, the US has demonstrated policy and economic flexibilities, while many
After the substantial fiscal and monetary policy measures implemented in the wake of the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns, a slowdown in global growth comes as no surprise to anyone. Most of the stimulus in the form of direct payments
In spite of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic throughout 2021, European equity markets were buoyant, recovering well from the extreme volatility of the previous year. The S&P Europe 350® was up 26.1% in 2021.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shocked the world, and while the immediate concerns are the human toll on the Ukrainian people, the implications and aftermath will be felt far beyond the region. With the European continent being thrown into chaos
Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, more than three decades ago, the NATO had tried to encourage dialogue with Russia. But, since 2014—when the previous severe political crisis between Ukraine and Russia took place, most of the cooperation efforts
European equities are caught in the crosshairs of the war between Russia and Ukraine, down 12.6% Year to Date 1 . Equity risk premiums 2 in Europe have risen sharply owing to accelerating earnings yields despite the recent rise in
Major political economy shifts often coincide with wars or preparation of wars. They do not simply affect how resources are affected to defend against external threats. They also shape priorities on civil spending to maximize internal social cohesion. Building a
Investors’ Outlook: It’s hard to escape the news of a European country and its capital about to be flogged into submission by an aggressive superpower. Kyiv, a beautiful and lively city on a hill above the Dnipro river, has in
Key takeaways The track record of a company’s management team is a key indicator for understanding future potential. There are interesting examples of growing companies attempting to disrupt large industries. Europe is a fertile hunting ground across many different industries.
After deploying a military contingent of nearly 180,000 soldiers around Ukraine's borders, President Putin has considerably toughened the tone towards Kiev, accusing the Ukrainian authorities of wanting to join NATO and of posing a threat to Russia's security. On February
January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors
Equity markets are off to their worst start of the year since 2009 as they continue to price in the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and the probability of over five rate hikes this year. The drawdown in equities has been
Equity markets are off to their worst start of the year since 2009 as they continue to price in the Federal Reserve’s hawkish pivot and the probability of over five rate hikes this year. The drawdown in equities has been
Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe The Federal Reserve turned decisively more hawkish at its December meeting, announcing an acceleration of the pace of tapering, which will now end asset purchases by March, and guided towards a midyear start
Inflation has returned decisively onto the global economic scene. In the United States, headline CPI (Consumer Price Index) reached close to 7% in November, the highest in nearly 40 years; in the euro area it reached close to 5%, the
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …
2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in
The European Union experienced a deep recession during the pandemic but also used it as an opportunity to demonstrate its ability to take strong, concerted action and to bounce back, all amidst the redrawing of Europe’s economic and political …
The COVID-19 crisis spurs cohesion, but fresh challenges await The economic shock of COVID-19 and mounting concerns over climate change have fostered improved coordination among European policymakers. We believe this has reduced left tail risks and set the stage for
As European economies have started to recover from the pandemic, there is a clear upturn in confidence among property industry leaders although many are still coming to terms with the radical changes to the business of real estate brought about
Market updates: At the start of the week, President Biden signed into law the $1.2 trillion infrastructure package. He is also set to announce a new US Federal Reserve Chief, which is expected to be either incumbent Jerome Powell or
Two factors have interested us in Europe in 2021. First, there has been a value rally since November 2020, particularly in smaller companies. The onset of the pandemic in Europe in early 2020 initially saw value and cyclical stocks, typically
Just as the global economy is finally gaining traction after delta variant setbacks, some economies are facing severe energy shortages, with energy prices up over 70% since last year. The impacts are being felt across Europe, which is facing shortages
After three straight years of stellar performance, European renewable energy stocks have fallen back to earth in 2021. But the future is still bright for green power as the world’s transition to a low-carbon economy gathers pace. In the short
The European economic recovery is well under way: gross domestic product (GDP) growth in Europe’s major economies was stronger than expected over Q2, notably in Italy and Spain. As European economies are opening up, services activity has recovered sharply, boosted
Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid
A broad spectrum of central banks fear climate change could spark the next financial crisis. For this reason, regulators in Europe and the UK are already beginning to scrutinise banks’ resilience to climate change – looking into both the likely
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Coming out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed could begin to wind down its monthly bond buying by year-end, if the economy and coronavirus
Special Europe: invest in the recovery In a nutshell As the European economy is recovering from the largest economic shock of modern history, we are revising our growth and inflation assumptions to the upside. Although the path to recovery is
BII Global weekly commentary Europe is in the spotlight this month, with a key European Central Bank (ECB) meeting and a pivotal German election that could have significant medium-term implications for the fiscal stance of Europe’s largest economy. We see
Equities have remained buoyant over the past weeks despite some challenges (China regulation, Afghanistan crisis), primarily due to the exceptional earnings seasons in the US and Europe. Looking ahead, we identify three main themes: the spread of the Delta Covid
Recovery in the economy and real estate investment markets gathered pace in the second quarter, though the new Delta variant of the virus poses a threat. Real estate showed strong returns in the first half of the year, driven by
When it comes to America’s biggest technology companies, it seems like regulatory risk has never been higher. Most large technology platforms are facing pressure from US and European authorities, while lawmakers on Capitol Hill seem more inclined to doing something
Responsible Investment has witnessed strong growth over the past five years. However, the past six months have seen it embark on a much steeper trajectory. If we take a Google Analytics view on worldwide searches for “ESG” (environmental, social and
The European economy is emerging from its worst economic slump since the Great Depression. As the vaccine rollout progresses quickly across the continent, mitigation measures and travel bans are being lifted, allowing growth to revive. As the European economy recovers,
According to the latest Sentix Euro Break-up Index, the probability that the euro will break up within the next twelve months, as perceived by investors, is at an all-time low. Volatility in eurozone government bonds has all but fizzled out.
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe At the same time that China has taken steps to stabilise its slowing economy with measures such as a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut and pledge to increase fiscal support, policymakers …
Risk assets continued their strong rally during June 2021. The continuing fast pace of the Covid-19 vaccine rollout has resulted in many economies starting to reopen and thereby increasing global activity. However, there is still a sense of unease as
Is pent-up consumer demand the key to unlocking value in Europe? In this article, John Bennett, Director of European Equities, considers some of the meaningful trends he believes could drive positive momentum in the region. Key takeaways As we progress
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Following a shaky start to its vaccine rollout, Europe appears to be recovering as businesses are reopening and lockdowns continue to ease in some areas. As the European Central Bank debates the extension
Today, all eyes are on Europe. While the strongest national European football teams are animating a great competition, which is also signalling a sort of return to normality for Europeans, investors’ appetite for European equities is back and for good
Resilient and essential in the Post-Covid environment As an asset class, infrastructure debt possesses key characteristics that contribute to resilient performance. These include the large physical nature of the underlying asset, high barriers to entry and stable revenues linked to
