September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to
“In Wall Street parlance a “tenbagger” is a stock in which you’ve made ten times your money. I suspect this highly technical term has been borrowed from baseball, which only goes up to a fourbagger, or home run. In my
Mario Draghi reacted to the increased economic risks to the economic outlook with a bold package of monetary easing measures. The extent to which this package in time supports the economy depends in large part on whether it encourages government
Recently-published flash estimates of GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) depict a rather supportive picture of economic activity in the second quarter (Q2) (Exhibit 1). Undoubtedly, the quarterly growth clip decelerated somewhat, but remained laudable with Poland up
Despite it being more than 10 years since the global financial crisis (GFC), the world remains heavily indebted and there is no realistic prospect of that debt reducing in the short or medium term. Barring glaring historical exceptions (such as
Part I: Reform, Relevance and Robustness The Survivability of the Euro, the second white paper in our Future of Europe series, offers a framework for assessing efforts begun in the past decade to strengthen the euro. The paper is presented
The US dollar’s strength did not do CEE currencies much good and while there were, in some cases, local factors behind the fall (especially in Hungary, where the HUF hit an all-time low), the decline in regional FX could mostly
Market Outlook While markets were waiting for Fed Chair Powell’s speech on Friday, Donald Trump announced new tariffs which had a negative sentiment impact. The mood was already rather fragile before Friday, but CEE currencies were – mostly – more
Economic activity is flagging and Eurosceptic groups gained some ground at the recent European elections, but Europe is cheap compared with other markets. There has been an extraordinary turnaround in central bank monetary policy. The US Federal Open Markets Committee
Oil and gas producers are oen seen as vulnerable to global efforts aimed at curbing climate change. But some European energy groups might become part of the solution to climate change rather than part of the problem.
Key points The role of a city today is to facilitate knowledge exchange and information sharing to nurture idea creation. The cities that do this best are those that are able to attract talent, cultivate clusters of high value add
In recent years, European retail parks have experienced a significant transformation with regard to the breadth of tenant mix and quality of design.
Strategy Espresso Theme of the week: Finding Value in US Financials What Rate Cut? On the day the Federal Reserve announced its first rate cut since 2008, the US Financials sector outperformed the S&P 500 despite what is traditionally assumed as a negative
Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September
How low can we go? With the European Central Bank (ECB) set to resume quantitative easing, can European high yield spreads return to their lows of the last time around?
Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second
Why we upgrade European assets We have closed our underweight in European equities and credit, and upgraded government bonds to overweight. The impetus? We see the European Central Bank (ECB) delivering fresh stimulus over coming months, against a backdrop of
A relatively benign G20 summit and expectations for easier financial conditions ahead have boosted demand for emerging market debt. However, areas of value can still be found. Fundamentals: The growth trajectory of emerging markets remains intact following the recent G20
Trade Dispute and Brexit are Driving the Outlook Economic outlook should gradually improve in the second half Global economic growth continued to suffer in the first half of 2019 due to the trade dispute and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit. By
This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines
Market outlook The CEE FX market was calm last week due to lower liquidity resulting from the public holiday in the US. The impact of the positive outcome of the G20 summit was short-lived and limited to the zloty, as
Market flash Meanwhile, the European Union made a number of senior appointments. After lengthy negotiations, a reflection of Europe’s very politically diverse nature, Ursula von der Leyen was put forward as European Commission president while Christine Lagarde was proposed as
European equities continued their rally into Q2 with the S&P Europe 350 rising 3%, modest compared to its stellar first quarter gains of 13%. Most of our core European factor indices rose in the second quarter, with the S&P Europe
Introduction to Invest Europe Invest Europe is the voice of investors in privately-held companies in Europe. – Invest Europe is the association representing Europe’s private equity, venture capital and infrastructure sectors, as well as their investors. – Our members take
Volatility is here to stay. Markets are hostages of very volatile news flow. Trade-related anxiety is driving the swing (pessimism of a broken deal between China and US led to a correction in May while the renewed hope of a
The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).
Fresh #StarkieBlog! https://t.co/YZrzQpIlIQ
Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen
