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Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

🕔16:37, 27.Jul 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –

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Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

🕔10:31, 22.Jul 2021

Key takeaways Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have moved lower, despite higher inflation. Fed officials now project two rates hikes by the end of 2023 and appear to be ready to begin tapering of its asset purchasing program as

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Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

🕔11:58, 5.Jul 2021

Below is a brief recap of the views of Tim Ng and Tom Hollenberg, fixed income portfolio managers and members of Capital’s interest rates team, regarding the Fed’s announcement on 16th June. Fed officials projected two interest rate increases by

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Change? What change?

Change? What change?

🕔11:59, 28.Jun 2021

This month delivered a surprise from the Federal Reserve, which appeared more hawkish due to the shift in the dot plots. However, after listening to Chairman Powell speak, we believe that little has actually changed. Yes, the Fed has an

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Surging Home Prices May Lead to Rate Hikes

Surging Home Prices May Lead to Rate Hikes

🕔12:59, 25.Jun 2021

The return of housing as an economic driver gives the Fed options. Home prices in the U.S. are booming and may continue to do so for a while yet. This will likely give the post‑coronavirus economic recovery a very different complexion

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FOMC Update: The ‘Talking about talking about tapering’ meeting

FOMC Update: The ‘Talking about talking about tapering’ meeting

🕔14:53, 24.Jun 2021

As expected, the FOMC maintained its current target range for the federal funds rate of 0.00 – 0.25% following its June meeting. It also indicated it would maintain its current pace of Treasury and agency MBS purchases totaling $120 billion

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The Imminent Peak in Growth Does Not Spell Doom and Gloom

The Imminent Peak in Growth Does Not Spell Doom and Gloom

🕔08:38, 24.Jun 2021

It is likely to remain above the potential rate for a while.  After some wobbles on the back of the bond market sell-off, risk assets have performed strongly over the past month or so. Equity and corporate bond indices are

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Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

🕔12:23, 23.Jun 2021

– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis

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Just Passing Through?

Just Passing Through?

🕔11:18, 17.Jun 2021

Global Asset Allocation – The View From Europe: The Federal Reserve has been consistent in its messaging that a near-term spike in inflation pressures will be transitory and recede once COVID-related impacts fade. The latest inflation print showed that prices,

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Lessons Learned: Repeat of Taper Tantrum Unlikely

Lessons Learned: Repeat of Taper Tantrum Unlikely

🕔12:04, 27.May 2021

The Fed may announce first asset tapering steps this summer. Should the health of the U.S. economy continue to improve at its current pace in the coming months, investors will have to prepare for a gradual normalization in Federal Reserve

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US inflation – Higher for longer?

US inflation – Higher for longer?

🕔11:45, 21.May 2021

US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer. Markets are

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UBP – Webinar – How can you benefit from the rise in US rates?

🕔14:00, 20.May 2021

The recent rise in US yields offers opportunities for the EURO-based investor. But between economic recovery, the FED policy, the rise of inflation, and the fiscal stimulus, how to make the right choice for your fixed income portfolio ? Come

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Can The Fed Stay Patient?

Can The Fed Stay Patient?

🕔17:41, 19.May 2021

Weekly Economic Commentary:  I watched the film “Apollo 13” again recently. For those too young to remember, a mission to the moon that launched 50 years ago almost ended in disaster; working feverishly, ground control was able to bring the

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Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

🕔10:02, 12.May 2021

Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.

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Optimism is justified, but Fed patience is likely

Optimism is justified, but Fed patience is likely

🕔16:20, 6.May 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Optimism on the US economic outlook increased as the COVID-19 vaccination rollout accelerated, and the new Biden administration embarked on expansive fiscal policy. The US$1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law in

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Loans May Provide Solid Returns in Multiple Rate Environments

Loans May Provide Solid Returns in Multiple Rate Environments

🕔11:36, 26.Apr 2021

The asset class offers a low‑duration profile, attractive yields.  Many investors tend to focus on bank loans only when there is a broad consensus about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the short term. While loans have historically performed

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The whites of their eyes

The whites of their eyes

🕔14:05, 21.Apr 2021

Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to

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Leveraging a Diversity of Perspectives on Rising Rates

Leveraging a Diversity of Perspectives on Rising Rates

🕔12:18, 14.Apr 2021

Just as the sudden shutdown of much of the global economy at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 was unprecedented, the expected recovery in 2021 is likely to be unique. Developed market central banks seem determined to maintain …

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A pause in the rise

A pause in the rise

🕔12:54, 30.Mar 2021

The sell-off in US Treasury bonds reversed over the last week with the 10-year bond yield dropping from its intraday high of 1.75% on 18 March. The decline was driven principally by falling real yields as inflation expectations were mostly stable. There was also a reversal in the recent outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks.

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Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge?

Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge?

🕔09:33, 17.Mar 2021

Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge? It seems happy to let financial market conditions tighten.  Surging yields on U.S. government debt are tightening financial market conditions, but the response to this from Federal Reserve Chairman

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Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

🕔11:19, 2.Mar 2021

Tension on bond yields mounted over the week as investors began to fear a strong economic rebound might fuel inflation. The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US could cause some sectors, like commodities, to overheat.

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Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

🕔12:52, 23.Feb 2021

In January, the US Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to low interest rates for a prolonged period of time under its new monetary policy framework. If anything, with its renewed focus on “broad-based and inclusive” maximum employment and a goal of achieving inflation that averages 2% over time, the …

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From Despair to Hope

From Despair to Hope

🕔14:55, 12.Feb 2021

In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …

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End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

🕔08:37, 29.Jan 2021

The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …

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What lies ahead for the US economy?

What lies ahead for the US economy?

🕔14:21, 20.Jan 2021

It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …

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Global Perspectives 2021

Global Perspectives 2021

🕔14:30, 15.Dec 2020

Markets | December 2020  Seek income in credit products. The US Federal Reserve’s aggressive response to the coronavirus pandemic has driven yields on safe-haven debt to near zero, leaving “low-risk” portfolios increasingly susceptible to interest rate-driven price volatility. We believe

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Finding Opportunities After the Rebound

Finding Opportunities After the Rebound

🕔15:15, 27.Nov 2020

T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Markets Our portfolio managers see selective potential in a range of asset classes. Even for those of us who saw reasons for hope this past spring, the market’s resilience in the face of the

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Fixed Income Perspectives

Fixed Income Perspectives

🕔15:09, 20.Nov 2020

Market GPS Chairman Jerome Powell recently introduced the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy with a renewed commitment to achieving an average inflation target. The policy will require allowing infl ation to run above 2% to make up for persistently missing

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Flash Update – Investment Views

Flash Update – Investment Views

🕔14:59, 12.Nov 2020

Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income For Professional Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors as defined by the relevant laws  Key takeaways: ■ The outcome of the US elections has reduced hopes of a large fiscal package being passed next

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Federal Spending Could Be a Catalyst for Industrials

Federal Spending Could Be a Catalyst for Industrials

🕔14:43, 28.Oct 2020

“The ultimate shape of either candidate’s infrastructure plan would depend heavily on the balance of power in the Senate.”

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US Election Preview: All or Nothing

US Election Preview: All or Nothing

🕔08:01, 23.Oct 2020

US Election Preview: All or Nothing The polls say Biden is the favoriete: With little time to go until the election, Biden has a substantial edge over Trump in the national polls, of around 10 percentage points. Biden has led

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Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime

Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime

🕔13:23, 5.Oct 2020

Spotlight In early-September, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a shift in the inflation containment policy regime that had been in place since the 1970s. Recall how, facing rapidly rising and eventually double-digit inflation, then Fed Chair Paul

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Coronavirus: what now for economies and markets?

Coronavirus: what now for economies and markets?

🕔15:31, 2.Oct 2020

European Gazette / Summer 2020 It’s been a tumultuous time for investors everywhere. Momentum is the key when looking at future prospects for stock markets and employment prospects across the continent Europe is now more than half a year into

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Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

🕔15:26, 2.Oct 2020

Key takeaways Fed shifts policy to accept inflation above 2% target “for some time” Historic shift is unlikely to generate higher US inflation in the near term Key US inflation drivers not pointing to higher prices, despite COVID-19 stimulus

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A COVID-era guide to fixed income

A COVID-era guide to fixed income

🕔14:52, 2.Oct 2020

This spring, investors experienced one of the most volatile periods in modern market history. The speed with which financial markets sold off in March, and then rallied following unprecedented steps by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury,

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Focus on the swoosh or the push?

Focus on the swoosh or the push?

🕔07:37, 29.Sep 2020

Monthly Op-ed  The recent dataflow is consistent with our base case: the world’s economy is not experiencing a “V-shape” recovery, but rather is following a “swoosh” trajectory in which after an initial spectacular rebound, growth slows. Focus is again on

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Gold Reaches Another All-Time High

Gold Reaches Another All-Time High

🕔07:55, 28.Sep 2020

Miners Remain Undervalued Despite Gold’s Run The strong gains of July carried on to early August. Gold reached an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce on 6 August amid U.S. dollar weakness and new lows in treasury yields. Gold then

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔08:05, 24.Sep 2020

The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation

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Treasury yields increase slightly as the Fed keeps asset purchases steady

Treasury yields increase slightly as the Fed keeps asset purchases steady

🕔14:53, 22.Sep 2020

Most U.S. Treasury yields increased modestly last week, led by longer maturities. The Federal Reserve (Fed) disappointed investors, as it did not expand long-duration asset purchases as some had hoped. The …

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔13:05, 22.Sep 2020

Last week started off on a strong note, helped by news on Monday of Gilead Sciences’ USD 21 billion acquisition of Immunomedics and chipmaker Nvidia’s USD 40 billion purchase of ARM Holdings. Software giant Oracle reported on …

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Central Banks Strive to Maintain Visbility

Central Banks Strive to Maintain Visbility

🕔08:12, 22.Sep 2020

Market Flash All eyes were on central banks. As expected, the Fed left its rates unchanged. It even said they would not move until inflation rose above 2% and stayed there for some time, a situation it does not expect

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What won’t be in the strategy review

What won’t be in the strategy review

🕔09:37, 14.Sep 2020

Key points The divergence between a decisive Fed and a more hesitant ECB is an interesting debate but it hides the fact that on both sides of the Atlantic monetary policy through its traditional transmission channels is facing diminishing returns.

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Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

🕔11:20, 12.Sep 2020

#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts

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Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

🕔11:07, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

🕔09:58, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

🕔10:00, 3.Sep 2020

Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …

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Pushing with a longer string

Pushing with a longer string

🕔12:59, 1.Sep 2020

The bad news on the pandemic front in Europe are offset to some extent by the recent experience on the other side of the Atlantic. There, in the late spring hotspots, the propagation of the virus has been curbed again

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The Pandemic Stress Test

The Pandemic Stress Test

🕔09:47, 18.Aug 2020

Examining the resiliency of US government securities repo and clearance settlement in Q1 2020 The volatility between late February and early April 2020 was the largest stress event international capital markets have witnessed since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Unlike

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Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

🕔08:09, 27.Jul 2020

Aggressive interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions and quantitative easing worked well. Buying facilities rather serve as a backstop.  Based on a diminishing marginal effect from Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), the Fed might do more for longer to support

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An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

🕔14:55, 17.Jul 2020

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights  Rising from incredibly low levels, improving economic data that suggest the imminent start of a recovery drove a sustained rebound in most fixed income asset classes in June. Markets remain highly dependent on the …

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