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A glimpse at our midyear outlook debates

A glimpse at our midyear outlook debates

🕔07:41, 18.Jun 2019

The firm’s senior decision makers debated the midyear market outlook last week in London. Jean shares the gist of our debates. Twice a year we gather BlackRock’s senior decision makers for a two-day forum on the market outlook and its

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Central banks set to lead the week, as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare to deliver their latest announcements

Central banks set to lead the week, as the Fed, Bank of England and Bank of Japan prepare to deliver their latest announcements

🕔17:18, 17.Jun 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed)’s interest rate decision, press conference and quarterly forecasts will likely dominate the week. Last week’s US retail sales and consumer confidence releases complicated the picture for the Fed. A marked upward revision to April’s sales (and

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Week Ahead | Major Markets | Eurozone

Week Ahead | Major Markets | Eurozone

🕔04:04, 15.Jun 2019

The outcome of the FOMC's upcoming meeting is uncertain and will therefor receive a lot of attention. The crucial question will be how the Federal Reserve will react to the escalation of the trade war with China and thus to

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Rising trade tensions weigh on Fed outlook

Rising trade tensions weigh on Fed outlook

🕔16:21, 13.Jun 2019

Trade tensions increased in May, when the US raised tariffs to 25% on $200bn of Chinese goods. We expect negotiations to resume between the two countries after a meeting between their Presidents at the end of this month, despite recent

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EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

🕔15:06, 13.Jun 2019

The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless

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EM Fixed Income

EM Fixed Income

🕔11:02, 13.Jun 2019

Our views for the coming months  After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary

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Notes from the road: An equity investor’s lens on China

Notes from the road: An equity investor’s lens on China

🕔07:16, 12.Jun 2019

Markets tend to focus on one risk at a time, and it’s fragile U.S.-China relations that are front and center now. New blog contributor Tony DeSpirito offers up two potential takeaways for equity investors. Headlines over the U.S.-China trade dispute

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Weighing the Fed’s monetary policy options

Weighing the Fed’s monetary policy options

🕔07:54, 7.Jun 2019

Elga assesses the options the Fed is considering during its monetary policy review. This is the third post in a series of blog posts on the Fed and inflation expectations. The Federal Reserve is considering a monetary policy shift from

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Why the Fed is reviewing its monetary policy strategy

Why the Fed is reviewing its monetary policy strategy

🕔07:18, 5.Jun 2019

Elga discusses the reasons the Fed is conducting a major monetary policy review. This is the second post in a series of blogs on the Fed and inflation expectations. An in-depth policy review at the Federal Reserve is in full

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Listen when people tell you who they are

Listen when people tell you who they are

🕔10:28, 4.Jun 2019

I had underestimated the chances of an escalating tariff war given the problems it creates for US businesses, for the stock market, for Republicans in the Senate who object to them, for some of Trump’s closest advisors and for the

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Technology and the fight for the cash flows of the future

Technology and the fight for the cash flows of the future

🕔07:19, 4.Jun 2019

Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that there’s little benefit to “trading the news” today, as prices adjust instantly to highly-transparent information. Rather, investors would do well to follow long-term cash flows, of which the lion’s share is to be

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Review of markets over May 2019

Review of markets over May 2019

🕔17:29, 3.Jun 2019

For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P

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The implications of a potential Fed policy shift

The implications of a potential Fed policy shift

🕔17:05, 3.Jun 2019

The Fed is considering a new policy framework to better steer inflation expectations. Elga examines the economic and market implications. Inflation expectations have sharply fallen recently, driving down U.S. government bond yields and focusing attention on Fed policy. The market

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3 reasons not to dump your dividends

3 reasons not to dump your dividends

🕔16:38, 3.Jun 2019

Thinking it’s time to hit sell on your dividend strategy? Think again. First of a two-part series. It’s no secret that with the Global Financial Crisis came the widespread decline of interest rates. Some countries even saw rates pushed into

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Fed to raise its inflation game?

Fed to raise its inflation game?

🕔14:05, 31.May 2019

Macro and Market Perspectives The Federal Reserve is reviewing its monetary policy strategy amid concerns that the current policy toolkit won’t be powerful enough to counter a future economic downturn. The Fed is considering options to steer inflation expectations that

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Income is back in bond returns

Income is back in bond returns

🕔18:41, 29.May 2019

We see income, or carry, reasserting itself as the key driver of bond market returns. Scott explains. Coupon income historically has contributed the lion’s share of total returns across global fixed income markets. Yet declining yields this year elevated the

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The Fed Holds, the Economy Carries on…Trade Wars Reignite

The Fed Holds, the Economy Carries on…Trade Wars Reignite

🕔11:02, 28.May 2019

Fixed Income Perspectives As expected, at its April–May meeting the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted unanimously to hold the Fed funds rate steady in the 2.25–2.50% range. The few changes to the press release language acknowledged the solid economic

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PM May resignation and European elections outcome could precipitate several local snap elections while trade war tensions still looming

PM May resignation and European elections outcome could precipitate several local snap elections while trade war tensions still looming

🕔14:58, 27.May 2019

European elections see relatively high turnout and fragmentation. Turnout surprised on the upside, at its highest in 20 years (50.5% versus 43% in 2014), suggesting that most Europeans are still interested in politics and Europe. The two historical formations –

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What could move the markets next?

What could move the markets next?

🕔14:20, 24.May 2019

Markets are not too expensive, or too cheap. As Russ explains, that offers a clue into what could cause the next move. Stock markets have been more wobbly of late. While the proximate cause was an unexpected deterioration (collapse?) in

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Applied philosophy

Applied philosophy

🕔19:02, 23.May 2019

Pause for thought  Market sentiment at the beginning of this year stands in stark contrast to that of a year ago. Last year markets worried less about growth and more about inflation but this reversed as the year progressed. The

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How to hedge against a downturn?

How to hedge against a downturn?

🕔11:46, 20.May 2019

This is close to being the longest economic expansion on record. Nobody knows exactly when it will end, so it’s worth considering what investments could rise in value when equities and other risk assets fall during the next downturn. By

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Why volatility could be worse

Why volatility could be worse

🕔07:47, 17.May 2019

Russ discusses why volatility has not been more severe, even though growth has softened. With one Sunday afternoon tweet, President Trump reintroduced what had recently vanished from financial markets: volatility.  By Thursday May 9th, the VIX Index, which measures implied

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What to make of the volatility spike?

What to make of the volatility spike?

🕔07:58, 15.May 2019

Volatility across markets had been generally low – until last week. Scott offers some thoughts on what it means for investors. Market volatility is low until it isn’t, or so the saying goes. We’ve witnessed a volatility spike over the

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Staycation or vacation: 5 summer investing themes

Staycation or vacation: 5 summer investing themes

🕔16:56, 14.May 2019

With growing uncertainty ahead, Chris discusses ways to navigate markets as summer approaches. “Sell in May and go away” is an old maxim for investors. Evidence is mixed on its validity, but given this year’s rally, the temptation now is

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Economic & Market Observations: Powell the Padawan

Economic & Market Observations: Powell the Padawan

🕔11:02, 9.May 2019

One wonders if Jerome Powell had a premonition of a bad feeling when he was offered the job as Chair of the Federal Reserve (Fed). His first year involved a lot of on-the-job training, including an equity market correction, outbursts

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Asset Allocation Consensus June

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Sign up on #OpinioPro to read all the latest research on #fixedincome, #assetallocation and so much more! Click here: https://t.co/90NYM4HBVh

In UBP's Monthly #Investment #Outlook they write: "After Q1 global weakness, world growth is expected to stabilise in Q2 and progressively recover moving into 2H19". Read the whole outlook here: https://t.co/jlNTFp5V6M

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