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December FOMC review: pressing the gas on taper

December FOMC review: pressing the gas on taper

🕔14:40, 19.Jan 2022

FOMC statement: The tone of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement was hawkish, with a focus on higher inflation risks and more aggressive policy tightening. There were notable changes to the statement: the Fed retired the word ‘transitory’ to

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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 19.Jan 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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Renteverhogingen door de Fed: welke opkomende markten lopen het grootste risico?

Renteverhogingen door de Fed: welke opkomende markten lopen het grootste risico?

🕔15:02, 18.Jan 2022

Ons model toont welke opkomende landen wellicht het meest kwetsbaar zullen zijn voor Amerikaanse renteverhogingen en welke het meest veerkrachtig zouden moeten zijn. Wanneer Amerika niest, vat de wereld kou. En wanneer 's werelds grootste economie de rente verhoogt, voelen

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Fed makes a hawkish pivot

Fed makes a hawkish pivot

🕔10:51, 17.Jan 2022

Multi Asset Quarterly: The economic growth outlook is strong, driven by a resilient consumer, low inventories and infrastructure spending. The rapid rise in Omicron cases, however, may limit the service sector’s recovery in Q1 and push out the economic normalization

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Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

🕔08:02, 11.Jan 2022

Key points The surge in inflation in 2021 combined with the sharp fall in unemployment leaves two of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy objectives within reach as the year comes to a close. Moreover, with US housing prices rising

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Monetary policy and the yield curve

Monetary policy and the yield curve

🕔08:45, 6.Jan 2022

Three hikes in 2022? At its December meeting, the US Federal Reserve left policy rates unchanged, near zero, while signaling a willingness to hike as many as three times in 2022 to combat inflation. It also announced an acceleration in

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Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

Yields lower, curves flatter & stronger dollar.

🕔09:34, 14.Dec 2021

Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.

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Liftoff? EM has already taken off

Liftoff? EM has already taken off

🕔14:12, 29.Nov 2021

As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised

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Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

Apartment Markets Remain Robust Despite Roaring Home Purchases

🕔10:53, 29.Nov 2021

As the US Covid-19 shutdown took hold in March 2020, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) moved quickly and decisively to loosen interest rates and provide liquidity to counter the recessionary effects of the virus. On March 3, 2020, the Federal

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Walking the delicate path to normalisation

Walking the delicate path to normalisation

🕔14:19, 26.Nov 2021

European Gazette: As central banks move gingerly towards normalising monetary policy, a delicate balancing act is under way. They need to tighten policy – but neither too soon, nor too quickly. Indeed, the flattening of the US yield curve in

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Fed announces start of tapering

Fed announces start of tapering

🕔08:51, 18.Nov 2021

At its November meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) left the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.00-0.25%. The Fed maintained its guidance on the policy rate, saying it expects to

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Can EM Narrow the Gap?

Can EM Narrow the Gap?

🕔08:20, 4.Nov 2021

During the past quarter, markets have become increasingly concerned about a growth slowdown, partly due to a resurgence of COVID-19, and partly due to global supply chain disruptions, which also caused a rise in inflation. This in turn tightened global

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More taper talk boosts Treasury yields

More taper talk boosts Treasury yields

🕔16:05, 2.Nov 2021

U.S. Treasury yields rose last week and the yield curve flattened amid positive economic data and further signals from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell of a taper announcement at the November meeting. The market now prices two full rate hikes

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Strong week for global equities

Strong week for global equities

🕔15:38, 28.Oct 2021

Weekly Economic Perspectives:  The Fed is poised to taper asset purchases imminently. Although language in the September meeting minutes maintained some optionality between mid-November and mid-December as start points, we suspect the earlier timeline is more likely. There really is

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Removing the crutches

Removing the crutches

🕔10:23, 14.Oct 2021

After a good start, September saw equity markets take a hit, particularly in emerging Asia. Alongside ongoing investor concerns about the pandemic and weakening global growth momentum, markets were rocked by news of debt payment problems at Chinese property developer

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Why we stay pro-risk

Why we stay pro-risk

🕔09:16, 4.Oct 2021

BII Global weekly commentary We stay tactically pro-risk amid the broadening economic restart, with negative real rates supporting risk assets – as per our new nominal theme. The Fed signaled it will start to taper around the year-end. Its reluctance

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Pandemic Guerilla

Pandemic Guerilla

🕔12:40, 13.Sep 2021

In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data

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What about forgetting about the Fed, just for a while?

What about forgetting about the Fed, just for a while?

🕔11:34, 13.Sep 2021

Weekly investment update: Investors and economists spent the summer waiting for Fed chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech in late August and the first part of September commenting on it. The next meeting of US Federal Reserve policymakers is not

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Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

🕔08:17, 8.Sep 2021

brief summary of their views. In his speech, Chairman Powell indicated that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is on track to begin tapering its $120 billion-per-month asset purchase program later this year and shared a dovish view on US inflation.

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Markets take the Fed’s tapering plans in stride

Markets take the Fed’s tapering plans in stride

🕔13:47, 6.Sep 2021

Equities continue to march higher. Despite the coming taper, Fed policy remains accommodative, and a strong earnings outlook supports select stocks. Although COVID-19 hospitalizations have surged, last week investors focused on the FDA’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine. Both

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The Delta dilemma

The Delta dilemma

🕔11:58, 6.Sep 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly: During August, investor edginess increased. Financial markets partly reflected this with a decline in equities and commodities, a fall in long-term bond yields, and a rise in the US dollar. Expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary

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Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

🕔08:23, 1.Sep 2021

– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

🕔12:42, 30.Aug 2021

Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is

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PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

🕔09:50, 30.Aug 2021

Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve

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Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

🕔12:31, 13.Aug 2021

Key takeaways Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have moved lower, despite higher inflation. Fed officials now project two rates hikes by the end of 2023 and appear to be ready to begin tapering of its asset purchasing program as

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Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

🕔09:37, 13.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –

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Thriving in the bond market

Thriving in the bond market

🕔10:06, 9.Aug 2021

KEY TAKEAWAYS Markets can readily digest an orderly policy tightening. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) is determined to cement the recovery and will avoid preemptively raising rates. Tapering of asset purchases will take place first but this will be gradual

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Here comes the Fed

Here comes the Fed

🕔11:56, 2.Aug 2021

Weekly investment update: The sell-off in stocks in China and Asia has further fuelled the bid for US Treasuries. This week, the market’s focus is the meeting of policymakers at the US Federal Reserve. The last few days have seen

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Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

Implications of the US Federal Reserve’s June 16 announcement

🕔11:58, 5.Jul 2021

Below is a brief recap of the views of Tim Ng and Tom Hollenberg, fixed income portfolio managers and members of Capital’s interest rates team, regarding the Fed’s announcement on 16th June. Fed officials projected two interest rate increases by

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Change? What change?

Change? What change?

🕔11:59, 28.Jun 2021

This month delivered a surprise from the Federal Reserve, which appeared more hawkish due to the shift in the dot plots. However, after listening to Chairman Powell speak, we believe that little has actually changed. Yes, the Fed has an

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Surging Home Prices May Lead to Rate Hikes

Surging Home Prices May Lead to Rate Hikes

🕔12:59, 25.Jun 2021

The return of housing as an economic driver gives the Fed options. Home prices in the U.S. are booming and may continue to do so for a while yet. This will likely give the post‑coronavirus economic recovery a very different complexion

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FOMC Update: The ‘Talking about talking about tapering’ meeting

FOMC Update: The ‘Talking about talking about tapering’ meeting

🕔14:53, 24.Jun 2021

As expected, the FOMC maintained its current target range for the federal funds rate of 0.00 – 0.25% following its June meeting. It also indicated it would maintain its current pace of Treasury and agency MBS purchases totaling $120 billion

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The Imminent Peak in Growth Does Not Spell Doom and Gloom

The Imminent Peak in Growth Does Not Spell Doom and Gloom

🕔08:38, 24.Jun 2021

It is likely to remain above the potential rate for a while.  After some wobbles on the back of the bond market sell-off, risk assets have performed strongly over the past month or so. Equity and corporate bond indices are

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Just Passing Through?

Just Passing Through?

🕔11:18, 17.Jun 2021

Global Asset Allocation – The View From Europe: The Federal Reserve has been consistent in its messaging that a near-term spike in inflation pressures will be transitory and recede once COVID-related impacts fade. The latest inflation print showed that prices,

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Lessons Learned: Repeat of Taper Tantrum Unlikely

Lessons Learned: Repeat of Taper Tantrum Unlikely

🕔12:04, 27.May 2021

The Fed may announce first asset tapering steps this summer. Should the health of the U.S. economy continue to improve at its current pace in the coming months, investors will have to prepare for a gradual normalization in Federal Reserve

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US inflation – Higher for longer?

US inflation – Higher for longer?

🕔11:45, 21.May 2021

US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer. Markets are

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UBP – Webinar – How can you benefit from the rise in US rates?

🕔14:00, 20.May 2021

The recent rise in US yields offers opportunities for the EURO-based investor. But between economic recovery, the FED policy, the rise of inflation, and the fiscal stimulus, how to make the right choice for your fixed income portfolio ? Come

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Can The Fed Stay Patient?

Can The Fed Stay Patient?

🕔17:41, 19.May 2021

Weekly Economic Commentary:  I watched the film “Apollo 13” again recently. For those too young to remember, a mission to the moon that launched 50 years ago almost ended in disaster; working feverishly, ground control was able to bring the

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Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

Fed to keep policy easy despite arrival of economic boom

🕔10:02, 12.May 2021

Evidence continues to mount that a combination of vaccinations and stimulus are creating some of the strongest economic growth data in decades. Even so, the Fed remains committed to easy monetary policy until unemployment falls further and inflation materializes.

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Optimism is justified, but Fed patience is likely

Optimism is justified, but Fed patience is likely

🕔16:20, 6.May 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Optimism on the US economic outlook increased as the COVID-19 vaccination rollout accelerated, and the new Biden administration embarked on expansive fiscal policy. The US$1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law in

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Loans May Provide Solid Returns in Multiple Rate Environments

Loans May Provide Solid Returns in Multiple Rate Environments

🕔11:36, 26.Apr 2021

The asset class offers a low‑duration profile, attractive yields.  Many investors tend to focus on bank loans only when there is a broad consensus about the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in the short term. While loans have historically performed

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The whites of their eyes

The whites of their eyes

🕔14:05, 21.Apr 2021

Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to

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Leveraging a Diversity of Perspectives on Rising Rates

Leveraging a Diversity of Perspectives on Rising Rates

🕔12:18, 14.Apr 2021

Just as the sudden shutdown of much of the global economy at the onset of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020 was unprecedented, the expected recovery in 2021 is likely to be unique. Developed market central banks seem determined to maintain …

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A pause in the rise

A pause in the rise

🕔12:54, 30.Mar 2021

The sell-off in US Treasury bonds reversed over the last week with the 10-year bond yield dropping from its intraday high of 1.75% on 18 March. The decline was driven principally by falling real yields as inflation expectations were mostly stable. There was also a reversal in the recent outperformance of value stocks relative to growth stocks.

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Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge?

Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge?

🕔09:33, 17.Mar 2021

Has the Fed Turned Hawkish by Allowing Bond Yields to Surge? It seems happy to let financial market conditions tighten.  Surging yields on U.S. government debt are tightening financial market conditions, but the response to this from Federal Reserve Chairman

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Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

Concerns Rise as Interest Rate Normalisation Accelerates

🕔11:19, 2.Mar 2021

Tension on bond yields mounted over the week as investors began to fear a strong economic rebound might fuel inflation. The $1.9 trillion stimulus plan in the US could cause some sectors, like commodities, to overheat.

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Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

🕔12:52, 23.Feb 2021

In January, the US Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to low interest rates for a prolonged period of time under its new monetary policy framework. If anything, with its renewed focus on “broad-based and inclusive” maximum employment and a goal of achieving inflation that averages 2% over time, the …

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From Despair to Hope

From Despair to Hope

🕔14:55, 12.Feb 2021

In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …

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End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

End of the Fed’s Credit Support Facilities Is Positive

🕔08:37, 29.Jan 2021

The success of the Federal Reserve’s emergency intervention in March 2020 played a crucial role in stabilizing and improving liquidity in U.S. credit markets. The cessation of the Fed’s corporate credit facilities, in our opinion, lowers the risk of unintended imbalances within credit markets that could potentially …

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What lies ahead for the US economy?

What lies ahead for the US economy?

🕔14:21, 20.Jan 2021

It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …

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