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What lies ahead for the US economy?

What lies ahead for the US economy?

🕔14:21, 20.Jan 2021

It really is different this time. While this is not the first pandemic the US has faced, our reaction to it — the restrictions placed on portions of the US economy, and the policy response — are truly unprecedented. First, there are lots of reasons to be optimistic about the US economy over the longer term. Official productivity statistics likely understate the impact of innovation …

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Global Perspectives 2021

Global Perspectives 2021

🕔14:30, 15.Dec 2020

Markets | December 2020  Seek income in credit products. The US Federal Reserve’s aggressive response to the coronavirus pandemic has driven yields on safe-haven debt to near zero, leaving “low-risk” portfolios increasingly susceptible to interest rate-driven price volatility. We believe

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Finding Opportunities After the Rebound

Finding Opportunities After the Rebound

🕔15:15, 27.Nov 2020

T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Markets Our portfolio managers see selective potential in a range of asset classes. Even for those of us who saw reasons for hope this past spring, the market’s resilience in the face of the

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Fixed Income Perspectives

Fixed Income Perspectives

🕔15:09, 20.Nov 2020

Market GPS Chairman Jerome Powell recently introduced the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy with a renewed commitment to achieving an average inflation target. The policy will require allowing infl ation to run above 2% to make up for persistently missing

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Flash Update – Investment Views

Flash Update – Investment Views

🕔14:59, 12.Nov 2020

Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income For Professional Investors in Switzerland or Professional Investors as defined by the relevant laws  Key takeaways: ■ The outcome of the US elections has reduced hopes of a large fiscal package being passed next

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Federal Spending Could Be a Catalyst for Industrials

Federal Spending Could Be a Catalyst for Industrials

🕔14:43, 28.Oct 2020

“The ultimate shape of either candidate’s infrastructure plan would depend heavily on the balance of power in the Senate.”

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US Election Preview: All or Nothing

US Election Preview: All or Nothing

🕔08:01, 23.Oct 2020

US Election Preview: All or Nothing The polls say Biden is the favoriete: With little time to go until the election, Biden has a substantial edge over Trump in the national polls, of around 10 percentage points. Biden has led

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Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime

Investing Amidst a New Fed Policy Regime

🕔13:23, 5.Oct 2020

Spotlight In early-September, the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced a shift in the inflation containment policy regime that had been in place since the 1970s. Recall how, facing rapidly rising and eventually double-digit inflation, then Fed Chair Paul

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Coronavirus: what now for economies and markets?

Coronavirus: what now for economies and markets?

🕔15:31, 2.Oct 2020

European Gazette / Summer 2020 It’s been a tumultuous time for investors everywhere. Momentum is the key when looking at future prospects for stock markets and employment prospects across the continent Europe is now more than half a year into

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Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

🕔15:26, 2.Oct 2020

Key takeaways Fed shifts policy to accept inflation above 2% target “for some time” Historic shift is unlikely to generate higher US inflation in the near term Key US inflation drivers not pointing to higher prices, despite COVID-19 stimulus

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A COVID-era guide to fixed income

A COVID-era guide to fixed income

🕔14:52, 2.Oct 2020

This spring, investors experienced one of the most volatile periods in modern market history. The speed with which financial markets sold off in March, and then rallied following unprecedented steps by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the US Treasury,

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Focus on the swoosh or the push?

Focus on the swoosh or the push?

🕔07:37, 29.Sep 2020

Monthly Op-ed  The recent dataflow is consistent with our base case: the world’s economy is not experiencing a “V-shape” recovery, but rather is following a “swoosh” trajectory in which after an initial spectacular rebound, growth slows. Focus is again on

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Gold Reaches Another All-Time High

Gold Reaches Another All-Time High

🕔07:55, 28.Sep 2020

Miners Remain Undervalued Despite Gold’s Run The strong gains of July carried on to early August. Gold reached an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce on 6 August amid U.S. dollar weakness and new lows in treasury yields. Gold then

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔08:05, 24.Sep 2020

The Fed announced an inflection of its long-term objectives by making the 2% inflation threshold not a high limit, but an average objective over time, i.e. it will not harden not its monetary policy in the event of one-off inflation

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Treasury yields increase slightly as the Fed keeps asset purchases steady

Treasury yields increase slightly as the Fed keeps asset purchases steady

🕔14:53, 22.Sep 2020

Most U.S. Treasury yields increased modestly last week, led by longer maturities. The Federal Reserve (Fed) disappointed investors, as it did not expand long-duration asset purchases as some had hoped. The …

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Weekly Market Recap

Weekly Market Recap

🕔13:05, 22.Sep 2020

Last week started off on a strong note, helped by news on Monday of Gilead Sciences’ USD 21 billion acquisition of Immunomedics and chipmaker Nvidia’s USD 40 billion purchase of ARM Holdings. Software giant Oracle reported on …

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Central Banks Strive to Maintain Visbility

Central Banks Strive to Maintain Visbility

🕔08:12, 22.Sep 2020

Market Flash All eyes were on central banks. As expected, the Fed left its rates unchanged. It even said they would not move until inflation rose above 2% and stayed there for some time, a situation it does not expect

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What won’t be in the strategy review

What won’t be in the strategy review

🕔09:37, 14.Sep 2020

Key points The divergence between a decisive Fed and a more hesitant ECB is an interesting debate but it hides the fact that on both sides of the Atlantic monetary policy through its traditional transmission channels is facing diminishing returns.

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Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

🕔11:20, 12.Sep 2020

#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts

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Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

🕔11:07, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

What could the Fed’s new policy mean for investors?

🕔09:58, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

Outlook for Fed Policy: Near- Term, Longer- Term

🕔10:00, 3.Sep 2020

Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …

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Pushing with a longer string

Pushing with a longer string

🕔12:59, 1.Sep 2020

The bad news on the pandemic front in Europe are offset to some extent by the recent experience on the other side of the Atlantic. There, in the late spring hotspots, the propagation of the virus has been curbed again

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The Pandemic Stress Test

The Pandemic Stress Test

🕔09:47, 18.Aug 2020

Examining the resiliency of US government securities repo and clearance settlement in Q1 2020 The volatility between late February and early April 2020 was the largest stress event international capital markets have witnessed since the 2007-2009 global financial crisis. Unlike

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Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

Big Numbers Alone Make No Proper Monetary Policy

🕔08:09, 27.Jul 2020

Aggressive interest rate cuts, liquidity provisions and quantitative easing worked well. Buying facilities rather serve as a backstop.  Based on a diminishing marginal effect from Large Scale Asset Purchases (LSAP), the Fed might do more for longer to support

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An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

An Improving Economy Favors High Yield

🕔14:55, 17.Jul 2020

Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights  Rising from incredibly low levels, improving economic data that suggest the imminent start of a recovery drove a sustained rebound in most fixed income asset classes in June. Markets remain highly dependent on the …

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Natural language processing – a new tool to decode the Fed

Natural language processing – a new tool to decode the Fed

🕔13:01, 17.Jul 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  What is natural language processing, and how can we use it to analyse FOMC minutes and the Beige Book? Until recently, quantitative economic analysis has been mainly based on the study of hard data and survey

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Nordea AM – Webinar – Morning Espresso

🕔10:00, 8.Jul 2020

Webinar – Morning Espresso Join us for a lively discussion with Joseph Cantwell, Co-Head of the Global Fixed Income Group at MacKay Shields, PM of Nordea’s US Corporate Bond Strategy. He will discuss how the unprecedented move by the Fed to support

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Road to Recovery

Road to Recovery

🕔07:37, 1.Jul 2020

Credit Continuum  Monetary stimulus measures and high levels of cash continue to support spread tightening between now and year end. The rally in credit markets has continued in May given Federal Reserve and European Central Bank support measures and the

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Treasury yields end virtually unchanged despite an active week

Treasury yields end virtually unchanged despite an active week

🕔14:36, 24.Jun 2020

Weekly Fixed Income Commentary​ U.S. Treasury yields ended the week only slightly lower, masking the week’s volatility.1 Rates rose early in the week, led by longer maturities, when the Federal Reserve (Fed) announced it would begin purchasing individual corporate bonds.

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔09:42, 11.Jun 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero The Fed kept its interest rates unchanged. The ECB kept its interest rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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Define ”Big”

Define ”Big”

🕔10:53, 2.Jun 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The European Commission “doubled down” on the Franco-German initiative and came out with a bigger quantum for its “Next Generation” package and proposals for new “own resources”. This is politically important. While we are still very

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Hamilton has not sung yet

Hamilton has not sung yet

🕔11:15, 26.May 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  While the market is understandably more sensitive to the newsflow around a potential vaccine than to economic data, we still focus on the “background noise” which is likely to accompany the mechanical rebound  …

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Powell take center stage

Powell take center stage

🕔16:17, 25.May 2020

The week before the Memorial Day holiday began with two high profile appearances from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, starting off with an interview on CBS’ 60 Minutes and followed up with testimony on Tuesday before the Senate Banking,

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Digging deeper into emerging market debt

Digging deeper into emerging market debt

🕔12:55, 20.May 2020

Investment Insights – Q&A In this Q&A, Capital Group fixed income investment director James Blair discusses the characteristics of emerging market debt, how investors could approach investing in the asset class and the US Federal Reserve (Fed)’s policy response to

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Introducing “Stressed Performing Credit”

Introducing “Stressed Performing Credit”

🕔08:56, 19.May 2020

White Paper Rising Stars in a New (Fed) World Recent unprecedented action by central banks, notably the Federal Reserve on April 9th, has helped markets recover meaningfully. This has caused many investors to wonder, “What do we do next?” or,

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Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

🕔10:12, 16.May 2020

#20 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro And it’s Saturday again: the day for us to publish our Top Five Best Read on OpinioPro this last week. Populair tags were ‘asset allocation‘ and ‘equities‘, furthermore our event calendar

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Hans Rosling and ‘Scary Statistics’ made it into our Top Five!

Hans Rosling and ‘Scary Statistics’ made it into our Top Five!

🕔10:13, 9.May 2020

#19 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro What research was read the most on OpinioPro this past week? Hereby a top five overview: On the fifth place: the CIO View by DWS: “Corona and Talf 2.0 – New

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Central Bank Watcher

Central Bank Watcher

🕔16:55, 5.May 2020

Rates in lockdown for longer  With the outbreak of the coronavirus hitting the global economy, central banks have stepped up to the plate by delivering significant amounts of easing. Official yields are now at or below zero for all developed

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Fed remains in crisis mode

Fed remains in crisis mode

🕔10:10, 5.May 2020

Short Note US Fed  As had been widely expected, the FOMC, the decisive body of the US Fed, left monetary policy and thus also interest rates unchanged at the meeting that ended yesterday. The latter will not change anytime soon,

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Stock market winners may keep winning

Stock market winners may keep winning

🕔17:13, 28.Apr 2020

While the market has staged a spectacular and unanticipated rally, looking at the broader indices can be somewhat misleading.  Year-to-date, the S&P 500 Index is still down -15%, but large cap tech and healthcare indices are down 3% or less.

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Covid19 crisis – Update

Covid19 crisis – Update

🕔15:12, 28.Apr 2020

For the first time ever the Fed will be aggressively buying corporate bonds This significantly reduces the main market risks, such as: Liquidity risk Risk of funds’ closures Refinancing risk Fallen angel risk And it is ready to do more.

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Bridges to Reopening

Bridges to Reopening

🕔11:30, 28.Apr 2020

Investing Strategy Commentary Health Policy Remains the Key Aggressive action by the Federal Reserve has helped restore some liquidity and animal spirits to financial markets, while fiscal policy is starting to kick in despite cumbersome transmission mechanisms in some cases.

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Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

🕔10:50, 28.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP  In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last

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Corona and TALF 2.0

Corona and TALF 2.0

🕔11:35, 27.Apr 2020

The Fed has expanded the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) in an effort to improve financing for households and small businesses. Liquidity has improved dramatically for TALF-eligible assets now that both dealers and investors know the downside is relatively

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Prepare for ZIRP: What Letter Shape is Your Recovery?

Prepare for ZIRP: What Letter Shape is Your Recovery?

🕔09:08, 27.Apr 2020

While much uncertainty remains, one aspect of the COVID-19 market shock is clear: The Fed will not stand in the way of the economic recovery. By the end of March, the COVID-19 global pandemic had a deep and profound effect on virtually

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Fallen angels – the impact on Fixed Income markets

Fallen angels – the impact on Fixed Income markets

🕔09:59, 24.Apr 2020

The unprecedented measures taken by governments across the world aimed at slowing the spread of COVID-19 has significantly impacted economic activity. Prior to the emergence of this pandemic, much had been publicized about the re-leveraging and general deterioration in quality

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Weekly Economic Commentary

Weekly Economic Commentary

🕔08:36, 23.Apr 2020

 The Fed Opens the Floodgates Supporting the Workforce Though the Crisis Australia’s Record Expansion Is Ending

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Caution: emerging market local debt

Caution: emerging market local debt

🕔16:40, 21.Apr 2020

We see improving outlook for credit in general due to overwhelming policy action to limit the coronavirus shock and recent market selloffs. Yet we have turned more cautious on emerging market (EM) local debt despite depressed valuations after selloffs. Why?

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ECB QE Monitor

ECB QE Monitor

🕔17:21, 17.Apr 2020

Central Banks: interest rates near zero  The Fed lowered the benchmark interest rate to 0%-0.25% after its second emergency cut in less than two weeks. The ECB keeps its rates unchanged. No movement on BoJ interest rates since 2016.

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