Rick Rieder, Russ Brownback and Trevor Slaven contend that eight major market influences are likely to dominate the investment environment in the year ahead and that the proper portfolio mix will be instrumental in delivering a successful outcome. In our
Monthly investment outlook Global equities pressed higher in December with risk free yields rising while credit spreads compressed as liquidity growth accelerated into year end. With the Fed recognising that it had not eased the USD liquidity backdrop meaningfully since September’
As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important
Take the lead – Global Insights 2020 The dominant theme as 2019 began – following three months of steep falls on world markets – was recession. But this threat was not obvious to us. Markets were pricing a downturn that
Investment Insights Blue Paper Fixed income: attractive yields in rangebound markets Following the three rate cuts agreed by the Fed last year, the bar for delivering further accommodation is high, and the central bank may be willing to allow some
Global Snapshot Trends to watch: US Fed on hold 13 of 17 participants at the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting expected current official rates to remain appropriate throughout 2020. The central bank injected liquidity via Treasury bill purchases and
PRIVATE CREDIT Amid negative yields, opportunities to generate alpha above comparable public debt Our managers’ outlook unfolds against an unusual backdrop: a remarkable rate environment, in which the number of negative-yielding debt instruments is on the rise, with a powerful
MACROECONOMIC OUTLOOK Why the global economy—and markets—still have room to run Although some of the risks that have weighed on the global economy may be starting to fade, it is too soon to sound the all-clear. We anticipate that 2020
Following another year of strong returns, Emerging Markets (EM) fixed income has outperformed developed bond markets by a significant margin over the past four years. The outperformance is likely to continue in 2020, because EM fixed income remains attractively priced both in
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
After an astounding 2019, what’s in store for 2020? Russ discusses. We will miss 2019. While 2018’s odd confluence of a weakening economy, rising trade frictions and monetary tightening led to losses in virtually every asset class, this year has
Mike explains why we favor inflation-linked bonds in both tactical and strategic portfolios. We view inflation risks as underappreciated for 2020 – and beyond. Our base case is for modestly higher U.S. inflation this year, with a risk of upside
Ghosts of Christmas Past After a very positive year for investors in 2019, we expect lower positive returns on financial assets in 2020 as some Ghosts of Christmas Past reappear. We don’t expect a global or US recession, and anticipate
Fed, ECB, PBoC and the Boj
The latest US tightening cycle was more aggressive than most investors realise. Should avoiding recession be seen as a win? How aggressive was the Federal Reserve’s most recent hiking cycle? Take the end rate minus the beginning rate, and the
As expected, the FOMC, the Federal Reserve's (FOMC's) interest rate decision-making body, left the range for the key interest rate unchanged at 1.5-1.75% at the meeting that ended yesterday. The current monetary policy was described as appropriate to support continued
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that contrary to the many year-end outlooks foreseeing either a recession or a rebound in 2020, the most likely path for the economy and markets is more moderate, which can be encapsulated in their
We expect little movement in bond yields. It's again in corporates and emerging markets that we look for potential returns. We expect neither the Fed nor the ECB to cut or raise rates in 2020. Euro corporate bonds and emerging-market
Positive returns across asset classes in 2019 may limit tax loss selling in closed-end funds, but we see potential long term value in select sectors where investors can still buy assets at a discount. 2019 has been a strong year
We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. Scott talks through our 2019 calls. In 2019 the key drivers of global markets have been
Market Pulse MACRO VIEWS FED: The Fed delivered another 25 bps of rate easing, which likely reflects the last mid-cycle adjustment. We expect the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end, barring any persistent weakness in data or inflationary pressures.
Rick Rieder and Russ Brownback argue that – in contrast to the past decade of monetary policy lifting all economic boats at once – the years ahead are likely to be characterized by great dispersion between economies, industries and markets.
Global equities rose in September, recapturing some of August’s losses. By contrast, so-called “safe-haven” fixed income asset classes, such as long-maturity U.S. Treasurys, declined, giving back a small portion of their prior month returns. The advance in stocks was led
As was widely expected, the Fed cut its target range for the Fed funds rate another 25 bp to 1.50%-1.75% at its meeting on October 29- 30, 2019, citing the global backdrop and below-target inflation as reasons for the easing.
Recent Fed action: On 30 October the Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate for the third time this year, while hinting at a pause over the next few months. The rate cut followed the Fed’s announcement on 11 October
Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM
Zo was het vorig jaar! #aftermovie #AssetAllocationAwards
https://vimeo.com/321963939
Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG
The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA
