Steady as she goes…
In credit: We saw some key economic data last week, in what felt like a seasonal lull for a number of European countries given the late May bank holiday and a week of school holidays. In the UK, sterling hit
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Tag "Fixed Income"
Insurers’ portfolios: re-load the income engine, go beyond the traditional investment universe
US long-term yields have risen in recent months on expectations of strong economic growth fueled by fiscal stimulus. Eurozone long-term government yields have followed this movement in a limited way, as Eurozone economies have been hit hard by the Covid-19
Duration Hideouts Offer Opportunities as Bond Sell‑Off Continues
Five key themes for an uncertain period in fixed income markets. What’s next for fixed income markets? A sharp rise in government bond yields since late 2020 has left many investors questioning how much further this trend has to run, if
China’s vast opportunity set – Best enjoyed undiluted
Allocations to Chinese equity and fixed income should stand alone rather than be part of global or emerging market strategies for investors looking for diversification and potential excess returns from the vast opportunity set that Chinese financial assets represent. A
A farewell to negative yields?
In Credit: US bond yields have stabilsed this quarter after the material sell-off in the first quarter. It has been a different story for yields in Europe, however, which have trended higher. This reflects a heavy supply schedule and speculation
Breaking Bad.
In Credit: The key theme this year for markets has been the trend higher in inflation expectations and the question of whether the US economy is overheating. This has prompted a rise in government bond yields, with German and UK
Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?
Inflation? The debate about inflation has been hotting up. During the earnings season, many companies flagged up the fact that they were experiencing higher supply costs. In April, the latest US CPI print – a measure of inflation in the
Waarom reële rendementen echt belangrijk zijn
Obligatiebeleggers gebruiken verschillende indicatoren om hun portefeuille samen te stellen, maar het is het reële rendement dat hun onverdeelde aandacht verdient. Het valt obligatiebeleggers te vergeven dat ze zich enigszins gedesoriënteerd voelen. Ervaringen uit het verleden betekenen niet veel wanneer
‘Brass in pocket’
In Credit: The upward trend of rising inflation expectations continues and is now at 2.5% at the 10-year point of the curve and 2.8% for two years. The US non-farm payroll / employment sector report released last Friday revealed that
Fixed income: year-to-date performance summary
As we reach the mid-point of Q2 2021 it seems a good time to sum up fixed income markets year-to-date. As you can see in Figure 1, government bond yields are higher – with the US and, to an extent,
Podcast: Are central banks at an inflection point?
5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.
Pictet Asset Management: Chinese obligaties behoren tot de core van een vastrentende beleggingscategorie
China is de op één na grootste obligatiemarkt ter wereld. Met een omvang van 15 duizend miljard dollar moet het alleen de VS achter zich laten. Naar verwachting zal deze markt nog verder groeien nu Chinese staatsobligaties wereldwijd worden erkend
Optimism is justified, but Fed patience is likely
Quarterly macro and market insights: Optimism on the US economic outlook increased as the COVID-19 vaccination rollout accelerated, and the new Biden administration embarked on expansive fiscal policy. The US$1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act was signed into law in
Beleggen in Chinese obligaties
Een opkomende, wereldwijd belangrijke activaklasse. China is nu de op één na grootste obligatiemarkt ter wereld met een omvang van 15 duizend miljard dollar, net na de VS en vóór Japan [1] , maar telt nog steeds weinig internationale beleggers.
All standstill.
In Credit: Government bond yields were little moved last week. The benchmark US 10-year note ended the week with a yield of 1.58%, barely moved from a week earlier. Inflation expectations, which have risen materially in the last year and
Podcast: EUR Cash is not king
Flash update: Ever since 2014, deposit rates in Europe have been negative, creating a headache for investors with this phenomenon unlikely to change in the near future. Current market pricing, for instance, does not have the deposit rate returning to
Great Expectations.
In Credit Inflation arrived in the US last week. There was also a bumper crop of strong economic data releases. This had been largely expected and remarkably yields fell to the lowest level in a month with the US 10-year
Emerging Market Debt Looks Attractive Amid Recovery
Interest rate volatility has been the main driver of performance in credit markets over the past couple of months. Heightened inflation expectations drove US Treasury rates sharply higher in March, with 10-year Treasuries reaching levels not seen since January 2020,
The whites of their eyes
Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to
Podcast: Time for US bond investors to shift to greater flexibility
Market weekly The outlook for US interest rates is shifting towards a normalisation of central bank policy now that the economic recovery appears to be entrenched. Ken O’Donnell, head of short duration fixed income, discusses how investors could tackle this
Calm after a storm.
There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.
Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value
Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …
Multi-asset market outlook
While fixed income markets mainly remained under pressure, they were not the worst performing asset class in March. That honor went to commodities. After leading the way over the past months, commodities came under pressure in March. The decline was broad based. Crude oil lost …
Diversifying Credit Portfolios With Multi-Factor Strategies
The past decade has seen the use of multi-factor investing in corporate bonds increase significantly. Easier access to corporate bond data along and a growing body of research has enabled managers to develop robust factor-based …
EM: deze keer is het anders
Als we dieper ingaan op vastrentende waarden uit opkomende markten ontdekken we variatie in spreiding, zowel over landen als over kapitaalstructuur.
It’s my party and I’ll wait until I want to..
Core government bond yields were lower and curves were flatter after a volatile week which, at one point, saw US and Europe diverge with US treasuries bear steepening while European government bonds experienced a bull flattening on Wednesday. Markets were caught between inflation concerns …
Together in electric dreams.
Core government bond markets remain in a nervous state. The good news about the vaccination roll out (UK and US), the passage of the US fiscal package, the concurrent rise in growth expectations and normalisation of the inflation outlook have conspired to take yields close to where …
Inflated inflation fears
For bond markets, this year has been all about rising inflation expectations and more recently real yields. This has pushed yields higher and dented total returns for areas of fixed income with higher levels of interest rate risk. The effect such moves have depends on the interest rate sensitivity (duration) of the …
Why Credit Investors Need to Become Active Duration Managers
Why Credit Investors Need to Become Active Duration Managers The importance of duration for credit performance and five ways to improve it. Credit investors typically pay little attention to duration, seeing themselves primarily as bottom‑up investors who specialize in sector and
Bond market riot: Rates are rising, but is it sustainable?
The new year has awoken the bond market from its slumber. What began as a gradual climb in nominal yields from the summer accelerated in February with the yield on the US 10-year Treasury note briefly topping 1.6%, and significant moves higher globally …
Back to work
As mentioned previously, this trend was borne out of rising inflation expectations and augmented by a nudge higher in real rates. If this latter rate is the key discount rate for risk markets such as equities, it helps explains why this market has been …
UBP – Webinar – Global Fixed Income Markets: return to Normality?
Webinar – Global Fixed Income Markets: return to Normality? The coronavirus pandemic triggered one of the most severe economic crises since the Lehman Brothers collapse in 2008. Twelve months after the initial Covid-19 shock, Mohammed Kazmi – Portfolio Manager &
ESG and EMD – taking the long view
Governments everywhere are racing to lock in historically low borrowing costs by issuing ever longer dated debt – in recent years Mexico and Argentina even managed to sell century bonds. That presents several new challenges for fixed income investors. Particularly those who own …
In Credit: Bad start to the year… for bonds
It has not been an easy start to the year for government bonds. Yields are higher around the globe for a second month as can be seen on the ‘Markets at a glance’ table. This means that total returns are
Investing in post-Covid-19 European private debt markets: focus on selection
The case for investing at the top of the capital structure. From an investment perspective, which trends do you envisage for private debt markets in 2021? Market trends appear favourable for the asset class on both the supply and the
Sustainability & Credit Spreads: From Leaders to Improvers
The shift towards a more sustainable global economy continues to accelerate. At Aegon AM, we believe this secular shift will continue to present opportunities for investors. Entire industries and sectors are evolving as consumers and investors alike demand sustainable solutions, and governments around the world enact regulations to drive sustainability. From …
Yields take off
After a short breather at the end of January, the reflation trade is back. Bond yields have jumped, with 10-year Treasury yields rising 33 basis points and 10- year German Bunds climbing 22 basis points since the beginning of February.
Treasury yields rise on promising economic data
U.S. Treasury yields rose and the yield curve steepened, as economic data came in stronger than expected. Spreads in non-Treasury sectors generally tightened, though emerging markets spreads widened amid brief dollar strength.
Reflating a bubble
It was Presidents Day in the US on 15 February and we imagine ex-President Trump will be celebrating more than most after being acquitted in his second impeachment vote. There was, however, less to celebrate in government bond land.
Podcast: Sustainable investing beyond green bonds
What are the key tools for sustainable investing in fixed income? In a recent episode of Refinitiv’s Sustainability Perspectives Podcast, James Rich, senior portfolio manager, outlined different ways to think about investing sustainably in fixed income. Beyond green bonds, learn about the sustainable megatrends and methods for identifying investable themes.
Capital Group – Webinar – What will be the key factors driving EM debt markets in 2021?
Webinar – What will be the key factors driving EM debt markets in 2021? With three quarters of developed market bonds currently trading at negative yields once adjusted for inflation, there is added impetus for investing in emerging market (EM)
Coronavirus highlights fixed income’s potential for impact investing
Investors such as pension funds are increasingly seeking investments with a positive impact, and the surge in Covid-19 bond issuance this year indicates that fixed income is the asset class wellpositioned to deliver positive social outcomes.
From Despair to Hope
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …
Three Critical Questions Facing Fixed Income Investors in 2021
While a new year may be underway, at least one thing remains the same: low bond yields. We believe that the challenges and risks this environment presents may not be fully understood by investors. For that reason, we have identified three questions that we believe investors should consider: focusing on the diversification power …
Quarterly macro and market insights
Amid rising optimism, preparing for setbacks as recovery unfolds is prudent. The rollout of vaccinations has bolstered optimism around the outlook for the global economy in 2021. Even so, the trajectory of the pandemic will continue to hold sway over near-term
Reddit in the News
The trend higher in yields has paused. Inflation expectations have stopped rising in what has been thus far the theme for fixed income markets. As mentioned, though the risk to inflation is heightened by recent US political developments …
UBP – Webinar – Managing liquidity in a low yielding environment
Webinar – Managing liquidity in a low yielding environment 20 MINUTES with UBP – Fixed Income Opportunity Focus In a moderate growth and low rate scenario which seems to be prevailing, maintaining liquidity has become extremely costly for investors. Active
Creativity in a Low‑Yield Era
Strengthening economic recovery in 2021 would carry risks for bond investors, warns Mark Vaselkiv, chief investment officer, Fixed Income. He says investors will need to be creative in seeking out fixed income sectors—such as floating rate bank loans and emerging market …
BNP Paribas AM – Webinar – A Focus on China
Webinar – A Focus on China The Great Instability The Great Instability virtual event series continues into 2021 and BNP Paribas Asset Management is delighted to invite you to join us for the first episode. On 28 January, we host
Podcast: Flash Update – UBP Global & Absolute Return Fixed Income Outlook 2021
Key takeaways: 1) We anticipate that the global growth recovery will remain intact as vaccine distribution will allow economies to gradually normalise, 2) Monetary and fiscal policy shall remain accommodative, 3) We expect this to be a positive environment for credit, whilst interest rate markets have room to breathe higher
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