Financial markets are signaling all is well, buoyed by cooling trade tensions and ongoing monetary accommodation. We question the sustainability of this view. I spent the first two weeks of November traveling in Asia, discussing fixed income markets and the
While bank-loan total returns continue to trail those of high yield by a significant margin year to date, the asset class outperformed high-yield bonds in November amid a backdrop of higher Treasury rates and slowing retail outflows. Less susceptible to
We believe global growth will remain moderate in 2020 (coming in around 3.25% for the year, essentially maintaining the current rate of annualized growth in 2019), thereby mitigating the imbalances and vulnerabilities (e.g., increasing inflation, sharp increases in commodity prices)
Rethinking government bond allocations and introducing our capital market assumptions for China The dramatic drop in government bond yields this year, taking nearly a third of global bonds into negative-yielding territory at one point, has raised serious questions about their
We expect little movement in bond yields. It's again in corporates and emerging markets that we look for potential returns. We expect neither the Fed nor the ECB to cut or raise rates in 2020. Euro corporate bonds and emerging-market
Executive summary Global growth is near a point of positive inflection and recession fears should ease. The easing in financial conditions, moderation in the drag on growth from the US-China ‘trade war’ and credit and policy-supported stabilisation of the Chinese
Q4 2019 fund selector asset class sentiments Key points There continues to be plenty of buying appetite among Dutch investors, with infrastructure and European equities remaining at the top of the chart. They are joined by EM equities, which are both in more
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
In Credit 2 DECEMBER 2019 The Thanksgiving holiday meant it was a shorter and quieter week in core bond markets with little discernible direction. It was also a light week for data releases or political developments. In the US, the Chicago
Franklin Templeton Thinks – fixed income markets In this Issue Fixed income investing has undergone a sea change in the past decade. By tossing out some active management orthodoxies and embracing new technologies and quantitative techniques, we believe some managers
Fixed Income Views Our expectation continues to be that the global economic outlook will prove more resilient than widely predicted by many market participants. While the trade and political environment is significantly more volatile than during past periods, the US economy continues to hold
Investors’ Outlook 2020 Dear readers, the year 2020 is presenting many challenges for inves- tors. On the macroeconomic front, global growth is likely to slow further as trade tensions and higher tariffs are increasingly weighing on the economy. On the
Minor uncertainty on the credit market The timid recovery of the ifo business climate index (November) was lending support to the corporate bond market last week. The ECB was very active in November as well, acquiring corporate bonds to the tune
Het klimaat op financiële markten verbetert doordat centrale banken de liquiditeitskraan opendraaien en omdat de handelsoorlog niet verder oplaait. Aandelen naar neutraal, maar liquiditeiten blijven favoriet Er breekt een waterig zonnetje door op financiële markten. Dat is voor een groot deel te danken
The dollar's bull run should come to an end, weighing on US equities. Emerging market debt, European equities and value stocks have the potential to outperform. Tread carefully. The path to strong investment returns in 2020 won't be a smooth
ING Beleggingsvisie 2020 In Beleggingsvisie 2020 staan twee vragen centraal, namelijk: ‘Hoe ziet de toekomst er op iets langere termijn uit?’ en: ‘Welke lessen kunnen we trekken uit de periode 2010 – 2020?’ Natuurlijk vind je hier ook onze rendementsverwachtingen
Market Overview October was all about talk of deals and crucial deadlines. What happened? The deals got nowhere and the deadlines were missed. How did markets react? Equities went up still more and bonds hung around. It is remarkable how
Summary European equities rose this month, for once without any new stimulus from central banks. Instead, improving economic data saw both stock prices and bond yields rise. The S&P Europe 350 gained 3%, keeping it on track for its best year since 2009.
European high yield spreads are still above their long-term tights, but that doesn’t take quality into account. Are fundamentals robust enough to justify taking more risks?
A resumption of monetary easing and ultra-low bond yields this year challenge the role of government bonds as portfolio ballast. We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6 to 12 months thanks in part to loose
From an economic perspective, markets waded through a sea of PMI (business confidence) data last week. The results were mixed – see chart of the week. Let’s start with the (quite) good news. In the US, the composite number was
The size of the fixed-income investment markets has grown considerably over the past decade. Existing investment classes have grown significantly, but also new fixed-income asset classes have become available to investors. The accommodative policy of central banks with low interest
Most global investors have not yet considered their China fixed income allocation. China is the second-largest bond market in the world at $13 trillion.1 The 10-year China government bond yields 3.2% compared to 1.8% in the US and -0.5% in
Corporate earnings expectations have continued to fade as the impact of a global growth slowdown and related trade frictions take hold at the company level. Trade tensions between the United States and China remain elevated though negotiations aimed at reaching
Over the past few weeks, Eurozone and U.S. economic and manufacturing data releases have started showing early signs of stabilization. In the United States, PMI data have trended sideways of late. Industrial production missed expectations, but much of the weakness
Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!
Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP
De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx
