Beleggers met allocaties naar obligaties uit opkomende markten moeten nu begrijpen wat de werkelijke impact is op opkomende economieën van langetermijnfactoren zoals de klimaatverandering en de ontwikkeling van menselijk kapitaal.
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Asset-allocatie: De omikronvariant zal het herstel waarschijnlijk niet doen ontsporen Een nieuw
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
Energy: Most of the companies that survived the initial shocks last year are now leaner with lower cost profiles, lower debt leverage metrics, lower capital spending, and have exhibited flexibility around shareholder distributions, all of which has contributed to stronger
December caped off a good year for the asset class, as the Index returned 0.64% for the month, bringing the full-year return to 5.20%. Following November’s softness, the average Index bid price moved up by 49 bps in the final
Uncommon truths It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Market sentiment is now mixed (thanks to the Fed), so our list of surprises contains something for everybody (these hypothetical predictions are our views
Asset Category ETFs posted nearly $10.2bn of net inflows in the first week of January. Flows were largely driven by Equity, which gathered $8.8bn Fixed Income gathered $1.4bn of net inflows, while Money Market exposures lost $119mn.
Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
High inflation could persist in 2022, but we’re not returning to the 1970s Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it. For the past 30 years, investors in developed markets
Macro / government bonds All three major central banks making decisions last week have demonstrated that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as outweighing the need to address inflation pressure.
MONTHLY INVESTMENT OUTLOOK Volatility returned to both equity and bond markets in November and December as equities exited earnings season and markets began to prepare for a change in Fed policies looking ahead. These pivots come amidst a renewed acceleration
In 2022 we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. Here’s what it means for fixed income investors. Monetary headwinds Throughout 2021 the invisible hand of easy global monetary policy supported financial
Global Rates: Yields edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar remains resilient versus DM, EM currencies, acting as a market barometer of COVID concerns Investment Grade: Despite Fed and virus uncertainty, we see spreads
The “new issue premium” is a proven phenomenon in credit markets. Corporate bonds are often underpriced at issuance, and then post strong price gains. Using documented evidence of this recurring pattern, we researched a set of bondissue features that contribute
In our latest Money Monitor report, we share a comprehensive analysis of flows in European openended funds and ETFs. We also look at the main investment trends observed over the past month. Key takeaways: The increased anxiety brought by the
The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened and spread sectors rallied strongly last week, as fears over the COVID-19 Omicron variant eased and inflation data came in-line with expectations. The Federal Reserve holds its last meeting of 2021 on Wednesday, where
I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at
New Omicron virus mutation and a hawkish Jerome Powell turned November into a rather negative month for most asset classes. Whether this is considered a good entry point largely depends on one’s assessment of Omicron and inflation. At this point
Recovery, risks and relationships Looking back over the last couple of years, it seems that while so much in our world has changed, much has remained the same. Yet we’ve learned a few lessons along the way. We seem to
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy The “real” puzzle Central banks are sticking to their temporary inflation narrative, even though the latest CPI readings support the “sticky” narrative. We think, investors should look for ‘real’ returns in credit offering higher yields, together
From pandemic to endemic IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases
Core government bond yields were lower and yield curves flatter last week (see chart of the week). More hawkish rhetoric from the recently reappointed Chair of the US Federal Reserve has upset the short end of markets, forcing yields higher.
If you are looking for market volatility to spice up your week then core government bond markets would be a good place to start. After last weeks ‘communication breakdown’ between central banks and investors, and more dovish policy response, that
Positive but slower global growth is meeting with greater inflation pressures The global economy maintained its Growth potential is on track to outpace pre-pandemic times positive overall trajectory, though economic indicators grew more mixed. Returns across fixed income were mostly
Summary Q3 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: A robust global recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn continued in the third quarter despite speed bumps from the COVID-19 Delta variant spreading around the world. The U.S. economy grew 6.6% in
ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to
ESG and Sovereign Risk As recently as 10 years ago, ESG was considered a niche investment market reserved for the particularly conscientious investor. Fast-forwarding to today, ESG considerations have been placed firmly at the heart of the finance industry. Consumer
Asset Category ETFs suffered net outflows of $996mn last week amid elevated market uncertainty. Equity weathered net outflows of $856mn while Fixed Income lost $653mn. Investors favoured Commodity, which gathered $327mn, and Money Market exposures which took in $122mn. Equity
Building a resilient and balanced portfolio should be a priority for many investors in today’s environment of heightened financial market uncertainty and volatility across a range of asset classes, including equities. With that in mind, now’s a perfect time to
Core government bond markets were a little calmer last week with yields a shade lower. This week should be relatively quiet as the US celebrates Thanksgiving on Thursday. We also expect the US President to announce if Jay Powell will
Economic data and market expectations have shifted dramatically in the past few months. Gross domestic product growth figures have disappointed while inflation has …
In brief In recent decades, negative correlations between stocks and bonds have been a tailwind for asset allocators, but negative correlations have been the historical exception, not the rule. Investors may need to change their expectations given the potential for
US FIXED INCOME 2022 OUTLOOK That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal
Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary
De Investment Grade (IG) Green Bond markt is in rap tempo gegroeid tot groter dan € 400 miljard. Ter vergelijking: in 2016 was deze markt nog kleiner dan € 50 miljard. Hiermee is de € Green Bond markt inmiddels groter
5 minutes with UBP global fixed income: What do you think of the recent communications from central banks? In this new podcast, our experts Bernard McGrath and Mohammed Kazmi share their views and reflect on the upcoming June meetings.
Bond markets, which have been under considerable pressure recently, saw a very sharp turnaround last week as the US Federal Reserve did no more than expected in the US, while the Bank of England kept rates unchanged, and the European
Waarom beleggers in vastrentende waarden die zich zorgen maken over inflatie en stijgende rendementen, moeten overwegen om over te stappen op kortlopende obligaties. Moeten beleggers zich zorgen maken over de inflatie? Er zijn zeker redenen tot bezorgdheid. De knelpunten in
CIO View October has seen new record highs and record returns Events were less friendly to bonds, as inflation fears are prompting central banks to act sooner than expected Many investors are hopeful of the traditional year-end rally, but the
A key factor in the past year has been the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. The initial economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound have been different for many countries. As the pandemic started in China, that
With debt default rates at exceptionally low levels on both sides of the Atlantic, investors might be forgiven for thinking that the market for distressed credit would be very subdued. But there are strategies that can find and take advantage
US equities printed a new high as we end October while bonds remain mired in volatility with yields near their highs for the last 12 months – see chart of the week. Meanwhile, risk markets in fixed income are locked
Q4 2021 | Fixed Income Outlook: Global financial markets were mixed during the third quarter. Fixed-income markets faced volatility from multiple directions, including the Federal Reserve’s announced intention to taper monthly bond purchases, the expiration of the U.S. federal debt
House View Q4 2021 The course of economic recoveries and expansions never runs completely smoothly. Businesses need to adjust to the changing environment and are just as likely to be surprised by the strength of demand as by any unexpected
How do you use fixed income derivatives within a portfolio and how do you prepare changes in the market? In this session Neil Schofield looks at Fixed Income risk management, engaging you through Excel activities and interactive questions. You will
Fixed income funds invest in bonds whose price is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price
In recent years we’ve seen a surge of interest in exchange traded funds (ETFs) as a cost efficient and effective way to try and replicate market index performance. But are ETFs as effective as investors think? As part of our
Allocation views When faced with tough choices, we are inclined to limit the damage that is suffered. This is human instinct—a survival mechanism of sorts. It also brings to mind an old quip that portfolio managers use when considering outperforming
We are marginally more cautious as the Chinese economy becomes unsettled and supply-chain issues persist, but retain our belief that we are in the middle of the cycle, not approaching the end. After cruising along for months, the S&P 500
