In 2020, our assumption started to incorporate the impact of climate change and the energy transition. Each year, we have developed the supporting analysis, and for this year’s update, our central case has moved to the Delayed Transition scenario following
As bank strategists and economists fill your email in box with forecasts for the year ahead, how should you process it all? Let’s admit it, most of us are driven by our confirmation bias. We weight most heavily those outlook
Investment Outlook 2023: If 2022 confronted investors with stiff headwinds, 2023 is likely to be challenging as well. After all, financial conditions are all but certain to remain tight and the fundamental reset of macroeconomics and geopolitics is continuing. Investors
February will be remembered in the history books for its geopolitical events and the predicament they, along with global inflation pressures, placed central banks in. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, shifting policy outlooks by G10 central banks was the
Quarterly Letter At the March lows, most risk assets appeared to be fair value or cheap, even assuming a moderate hit to fair value from a severe recession. In our multi-asset portfolios, we added to our …
Quarterly Update Our medium-term baseline scenario is that of a late business cycle slowdown supported by the dovish U-turn of central banks. We expect economic growth to move below potential for most developed economies in 2020, a trend that will
Looking into the future is something of a fool’s game, but it remains a useful exercise — helping prepare for what lies ahead by considering the full possible range of economic and political outcomes. This is where Saxo’s annual Outrageous Predictions fit in:
The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2019 show HICP inflation expectations of 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.5% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively.1 This represents downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points for
Capital Market Line Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes An important issue loomed at the core of last quarter’s exceptional chaos. Just as global manufacturing appeared to be bottoming, China emulated Trump and walked away
The broad-based risk rally that started after Christmas has not yet subsided, with this positive surprise for investors largely driven by the Federal Reserve signalling a slower pace of monetary tightening, and by positive signs on the trade talks between
The deceleration in economic growth – and the entry of the US into the late stage of its expansion – casts a shadow on corporate profit margins. This year we could see a US-led earnings recession – typically defined as
Asset Class Return Forecasts Global growth is expected to remain mostly supportive buoyed by robust demand and continues to be the main driver in asset prices for the next few years. Over this period, the risk adjusted returns for the
