The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer
Macro Environment The emergence of the omicron coronavirus variant was the dominant risk event in November and could have an important impact on currency and risky asset markets over the next few months. But before we get to that, it’s
Chi Time China’s exchange rate policy favours a stable renminbi. However, the positive factors that have boosted the Chinese currency are turning negative, leading to some views that the renminbi should weaken in 2022. They include an expected decline in
Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an
Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve
Investment Insights Over the past decade, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened significantly and local currency bond investors have seen little exchange rate returns. In fact, EM exchange rates (FX) have been a major source of volatility … Key Takeaways
The reform of the currency is mainly symbolic In 2019, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU1 ) initiated a shift from the CFA franc, the local currency, to a newly created currency – the eco. This marked the
Key takeaways The impact of the recent volatility has varied greatly within emerging markets, particularly between the investment grade and higher yielding parts of the asset class. This has been reflected in the differences in yields in local and hard
China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.
CEE Forex News | CEE | FX After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to …
The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either
It is always darkest before the down It has been an extraordinary four weeks in markets worldwide. In the past 20 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has seen more 3%+ daily swings than it had in the previous 5 years.
US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc The EURUSD is currently extremely volatile. While the euro was able to make significant gains for the time being due to the sharply reduced interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, a
The core asset class views dashboard reflects the key views of the Investment Committee of the Multi-Asset team Despite investor scepticism, 2019 was a bull market for every asset class (Figure 1). Indeed, assets benefited from the strongly dovish stance
Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but
This week in CEE This week, the Hungarian central bank meeting is likely to be a key event. After the surge in the January inflation rate toward 4.7% y/y, the central bank verbally intervened by saying it will do whatever
Measured on a year-on-year percent change basis, M2 and M3 growth have both been accelerating in the US since late 2018. There are two main reasons why broad money growth acceleration has occurred, and in this article, we explain how
This week in CEE This week, a series of two equally important releases is scheduled: inflation and economic growth in the last quarter. Inflationary pressure remains elevated in the region, as in all countries the headline inflation number should land
Part 1: FX wars vs. currency wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. … The concept of “currency war” was officially coined by the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010, a little less than 10 years ago. He considered that emerging
2019 market review and analysis In the market for corporate Schuldscheindarlehen, 2019 was one of the stronger years in terms of issuance, but failed – according to our calculations – to reach the record levels of 2016 and 2017: Around
USD: Euro should gain Over the past few weeks, EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a recovery in the Eurozone,
Forex News – US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a
As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important
This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much
For most of November, the EURUSD remained in a very narrow range between 1.10 and 1.11. There was little reaction to the improvement in some economic data from the Eurozone. This was probably due to the approaching end of the
How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
November’s multi-asset chart of the month highlights how a global shortage of US dollars could be reversing. This could signal the beginning of a weak phase for the currency.
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are
House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,
In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the
The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United
The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad
The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market
Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the
A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks
A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that
How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps
Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US
Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the
Forex News The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our
Forex News The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our
Individueel Defined Contribution Individueel Defined Contribution (iDC) regelingen krijgen steeds meer aandacht. Dit zijn beschikbare premieregelingen waarbij de inleg vaststaat en het pensioen voor een belangrijk deel afhangt van het behaalde rendement op de beleggingen. Een individuele regeling klinkt misschien
Forex News Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been trading at the lower end of the range that has existed since autumn of last year and dropped temporarily below the 1.13 mark. The volatility measured over a month
Emerging markets monitor The growth deceleration in emerging markets will be much less pronounced than in DM according to our leading indicators. This growth gap in favour of EM supports a recovery in EM currencies.
