US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc The EURUSD is currently extremely volatile. While the euro was able to make significant gains for the time being due to the sharply reduced interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, a
The core asset class views dashboard reflects the key views of the Investment Committee of the Multi-Asset team Despite investor scepticism, 2019 was a bull market for every asset class (Figure 1). Indeed, assets benefited from the strongly dovish stance
Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but
This week in CEE This week, the Hungarian central bank meeting is likely to be a key event. After the surge in the January inflation rate toward 4.7% y/y, the central bank verbally intervened by saying it will do whatever
Measured on a year-on-year percent change basis, M2 and M3 growth have both been accelerating in the US since late 2018. There are two main reasons why broad money growth acceleration has occurred, and in this article, we explain how
This week in CEE This week, a series of two equally important releases is scheduled: inflation and economic growth in the last quarter. Inflationary pressure remains elevated in the region, as in all countries the headline inflation number should land
Part 1: FX wars vs. currency wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. … The concept of “currency war” was officially coined by the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010, a little less than 10 years ago. He considered that emerging
2019 market review and analysis In the market for corporate Schuldscheindarlehen, 2019 was one of the stronger years in terms of issuance, but failed – according to our calculations – to reach the record levels of 2016 and 2017: Around
USD: Euro should gain Over the past few weeks, EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a recovery in the Eurozone,
Forex News – US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a
As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important
This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much
For most of November, the EURUSD remained in a very narrow range between 1.10 and 1.11. There was little reaction to the improvement in some economic data from the Eurozone. This was probably due to the approaching end of the
How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
November’s multi-asset chart of the month highlights how a global shortage of US dollars could be reversing. This could signal the beginning of a weak phase for the currency.
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are
House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,
In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the
The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United
#assetallocation https://twitter.com/PictetAM_NL/status/1245660439775547396
De financiële markten zullen komende weken opnieuw te maken krijgen met volatiliteit naarmate de omvang van de economische schade als gevolg van de pandemie duidelijk wordt. Daarom behouden wij onze neutrale weging voor aandelen en obligaties. https://am.pictet/nl/netherlands/global-articles/2020/monthly-market-views/asset-allocation/april?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=organic-social&utm_campaign=barometer&utm_content=april-2020
Adverse scenario becomes reality -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/erste-group/adverse-scenario-becomes-reality/ #CentralBanks #coronavirus #ECB #EmergingMarkets #Europe #gdpgrowth #COVID19 via
@ErsteGroup
2020 – coronavirus reversal and rebound -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/dws/2020-coronavirus-reversal-and-rebound/ #coronavirus #Equities #FixedIncome #gdp #interestrates #COVID19 via
@DWS_Group
USD: No sustained trend visible -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/erste-group/usd-no-sustained-trend-visible/ #currency #fx #interestrates via @ErsteGroup
Tackling The ‘Unknown Unknowns’: How Active Managers Manage Unforeseen Risks -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/columbia-threadneedle/tackling-the-unknown-unknowns-how-active-managers-manage-unforeseen-risks/ #active #passive #COVID19 #fundmanager #ETFs #behavioural via @CTinvest_EMEA @CTInvest_US
