USD: Euro should gain Over the past few weeks, EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a recovery in the Eurozone,
Forex News – US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a
As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important
This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much
For most of November, the EURUSD remained in a very narrow range between 1.10 and 1.11. There was little reaction to the improvement in some economic data from the Eurozone. This was probably due to the approaching end of the
How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
November’s multi-asset chart of the month highlights how a global shortage of US dollars could be reversing. This could signal the beginning of a weak phase for the currency.
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power
An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are
House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,
In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the
The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United
The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad
The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market
Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the
A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks
A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that
How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps
Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US
Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the
Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM
Zo was het vorig jaar! #aftermovie #AssetAllocationAwards
https://vimeo.com/321963939
Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG
The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA
