Back to homepage

Tag "fx"

Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility

Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility

🕔15:06, 8.Jun 2023

In his paper "Currency Hedging Can Boost Yields and Reduce Volatility", T. Rowe Price points out a crucial but often overlooked investment opportunity. He posits that while foreign currency bonds may initially seem less appealing to U.S. investors due to

Read Full Article
Currency hedging policy for institutions

Currency hedging policy for institutions

🕔11:29, 13.Mar 2023

As the overall investment environment remains uncertain and the attractiveness of major asset classes is challenged, we believe it is appropriate to focus on currencies as a potential source of return and risk diversification for a portfolio. Indeed, FX has

Read Full Article
The Buck Stops Here

The Buck Stops Here

🕔14:48, 2.Feb 2023

Over the last two years, the world has witnessed a parabolic strengthening of the US dollar compared to its developed-market counterparts. Dollar strengthening actually started just after the global financial crisis as a slow methodical slog higher marked by both

Read Full Article
De geheimen van valuta-afdekking binnen vastrentende waarden

De geheimen van valuta-afdekking binnen vastrentende waarden

🕔10:22, 5.Jan 2023

Beleggen in het buitenland betekent ook beleggen in een vreemde munt. Dat kan het leven wat ingewikkelder maken, vooral voor obligatiebeleggers. De post-pandemische divergentie in het monetaire beleid van de centrale banken heeft geleid tot sterke schommelingen op de financiële

Read Full Article
Angst in the global FX village

Angst in the global FX village

🕔15:17, 30.Nov 2022

The FX regime of the last 20-25 years was characterised by a massive accumulation of USD reserves by export-oriented Asian countries, overall low FX volatility, and a still dominant role for the USD as a ‘public good’ facilitating global trade.

Read Full Article
35-Year Highs For The Dollar

35-Year Highs For The Dollar

🕔10:38, 3.Nov 2022

Our Currency, Our Problem. One of the most famous sentences ever uttered by a U.S. Treasury Secretary was John Connally’s November 1971 G-10 meeting quote that “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” It’s a wonderful line, and the

Read Full Article
Rate hikes and inflation taming could prove a tough balancing act for the Fed

Rate hikes and inflation taming could prove a tough balancing act for the Fed

🕔13:42, 14.Feb 2022

Fixed Income Perspectives Bond Market Outlook Global Rates: Yields to edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar to remain range-bound as market balances global Covid concerns, hawkish central bank policies Investment Grade:

Read Full Article
EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

🕔10:52, 12.Feb 2022

The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer

Read Full Article
Curreny Commentary

Curreny Commentary

🕔08:55, 4.Jan 2022

Macro Environment The emergence of the omicron coronavirus variant was the dominant risk event in November and could have an important impact on currency and risky asset markets over the next few months. But before we get to that, it’s

Read Full Article
Will the renminbi surprise the market?

Will the renminbi surprise the market?

🕔12:11, 29.Dec 2021

Chi Time China’s exchange rate policy favours a stable renminbi. However, the positive factors that have boosted the Chinese currency are turning negative, leading to some views that the renminbi should weaken in 2022. They include an expected decline in

Read Full Article
Two questions for autumn

Two questions for autumn

🕔11:15, 8.Sep 2021

Capital Markets Monthly Summer is coming to an end in the northern hemisphere. Whether the stock markets will begin to see cooler temperatures following the sharp price increases of these past few months, or conversely, whether we can expect an

Read Full Article
PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

🕔09:50, 30.Aug 2021

Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve

Read Full Article
Emerging market exchange rates: cheap or value traps?

Emerging market exchange rates: cheap or value traps?

🕔09:19, 1.Dec 2020

Investment Insights Over the past decade, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened significantly and local currency bond investors have seen little exchange rate returns. In fact, EM exchange rates (FX) have been a major source of volatility … Key Takeaways

Read Full Article
A motionless journey: From CFA franc to eco

A motionless journey: From CFA franc to eco

🕔11:05, 15.Jun 2020

The reform of the currency is mainly symbolic In 2019, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU1 ) initiated a shift from the CFA franc, the local currency, to a newly created currency – the eco. This marked the

Read Full Article
How will emerging market debt emerge from the crisis?

How will emerging market debt emerge from the crisis?

🕔14:15, 5.Jun 2020

Key takeaways The impact of the recent volatility has varied greatly within emerging markets, particularly between the investment grade and higher yielding parts of the asset class. This has been reflected in the differences in yields in local and hard

Read Full Article
5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

🕔12:42, 28.May 2020

China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.   

Read Full Article
CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

🕔11:35, 26.May 2020

CEE Forex News | CEE | FX  After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to  …

Read Full Article
Forex News

Forex News

🕔10:53, 30.Apr 2020

The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either

Read Full Article
When Cheap Gets Cheaper

When Cheap Gets Cheaper

🕔08:07, 14.Apr 2020

It is always darkest before the down It has been an extraordinary four weeks in markets worldwide. In the past 20 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has seen more 3%+ daily swings than it had in the previous 5 years.

Read Full Article
USD: No sustained trend visible

USD: No sustained trend visible

🕔11:00, 2.Apr 2020

US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc  The EURUSD is currently extremely volatile. While the euro was able to make significant gains for the time being due to the sharply reduced interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, a

Read Full Article
Less downside risk, but don’t chase markets

Less downside risk, but don’t chase markets

🕔16:02, 27.Mar 2020

The core asset class views dashboard reflects the key views of the Investment Committee of the Multi-Asset team  Despite investor scepticism, 2019 was a bull market for every asset class (Figure 1). Indeed, assets benefited from the strongly dovish stance

Read Full Article
Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

🕔08:05, 24.Mar 2020

Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but

Read Full Article
All eyes on Hungarian central bank

All eyes on Hungarian central bank

🕔09:56, 25.Feb 2020

This week in CEE This week, the Hungarian central bank meeting is likely to be a key event. After the surge in the January inflation rate toward 4.7% y/y, the central bank verbally intervened by saying it will do whatever

Read Full Article
An explanation of the recent monetary acceleration in the US

An explanation of the recent monetary acceleration in the US

🕔12:05, 20.Feb 2020

Measured on a year-on-year percent change basis, M2 and M3 growth have both been accelerating in the US since late 2018. There are two main reasons why broad money growth acceleration has occurred, and in this article, we explain how

Read Full Article
Growth and inflation in CEE

Growth and inflation in CEE

🕔08:36, 11.Feb 2020

This week in CEE This week, a series of two equally important releases is scheduled: inflation and economic growth in the last quarter. Inflationary pressure remains elevated in the region, as in all countries the headline inflation number should land

Read Full Article
FX wars, currency wars & money wars

FX wars, currency wars & money wars

🕔06:46, 7.Feb 2020

Part 1: FX wars vs. currency wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. … The concept of “currency war” was officially coined by the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010, a little less than 10 years ago. He considered that emerging

Read Full Article
Strong issuance year with notable ‘firsts’

Strong issuance year with notable ‘firsts’

🕔09:05, 28.Jan 2020

2019 market review and analysis In the market for corporate Schuldscheindarlehen, 2019 was one of the stronger years in terms of issuance, but failed – according to our calculations – to reach the record levels of 2016 and 2017: Around

Read Full Article
ForexNews – USdollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc

ForexNews – USdollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc

🕔12:38, 23.Jan 2020

USD: Euro should gain   Over the past few weeks, EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a recovery in the Eurozone,

Read Full Article
USD: Euro should gain

USD: Euro should gain

🕔10:05, 23.Jan 2020

Forex News – US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a

Read Full Article
The ECB, the FED, rates, yields and currencies

The ECB, the FED, rates, yields and currencies

🕔14:02, 22.Jan 2020

As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important

Read Full Article
Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

🕔10:26, 21.Jan 2020

This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much

Read Full Article
USD: Better environment speaks against dollar

USD: Better environment speaks against dollar

🕔14:08, 28.Nov 2019

For most of November, the EURUSD remained in a very narrow range between 1.10 and 1.11. There was little reaction to the improvement in some economic data from the Eurozone. This was probably due to the approaching end of the

Read Full Article
Hidden Costs in FX Management

Hidden Costs in FX Management

🕔10:03, 28.Nov 2019

How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees

Read Full Article
Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

🕔12:29, 20.Nov 2019

November’s multi-asset chart of the month highlights how a global shortage of US dollars could be reversing. This could signal the beginning of a weak phase for the currency.

Read Full Article
UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

🕔15:57, 12.Nov 2019

The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his

Read Full Article
Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

🕔16:34, 7.Nov 2019

LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power

Read Full Article
Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

🕔15:51, 7.Nov 2019

An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are

Read Full Article
US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

🕔08:42, 7.Nov 2019

House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,

Read Full Article
Geopolitical clouds start to clear

Geopolitical clouds start to clear

🕔15:35, 6.Nov 2019

In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the

Read Full Article
Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

🕔18:09, 4.Nov 2019

The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar

Read Full Article
Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

🕔12:43, 3.Oct 2019

This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration

Read Full Article
USD: environment continues to support the dollar

USD: environment continues to support the dollar

🕔17:05, 26.Sep 2019

The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could

Read Full Article
The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

🕔09:26, 16.Aug 2019

China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibas­am.com/the­fuss­aboutchinas­current­account­deficit­and­global­cost­of­capital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,

Read Full Article
Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

🕔12:00, 13.Aug 2019

A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United

Read Full Article
Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

🕔08:51, 20.Jul 2019

The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad

Read Full Article
Sell in May and go away?

Sell in May and go away?

🕔13:02, 10.May 2019

The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market

Read Full Article
Forex News

Forex News

🕔04:03, 3.May 2019

Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the

Read Full Article
The next global currency shift

The next global currency shift

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks

Read Full Article
Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that

Read Full Article
Dedollari$ation

Dedollari$ation

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps

Read Full Article

SEARCH