This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibasam.com/thefussaboutchinascurrentaccountdeficitandglobalcostofcapital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,
A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United
The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad
The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market
Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the
A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks
A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that
How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps
Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US
Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the
Forex News The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our
Forex News The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our
Individueel Defined Contribution Individueel Defined Contribution (iDC) regelingen krijgen steeds meer aandacht. Dit zijn beschikbare premieregelingen waarbij de inleg vaststaat en het pensioen voor een belangrijk deel afhangt van het behaalde rendement op de beleggingen. Een individuele regeling klinkt misschien
Forex News Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been trading at the lower end of the range that has existed since autumn of last year and dropped temporarily below the 1.13 mark. The volatility measured over a month
Emerging markets monitor The growth deceleration in emerging markets will be much less pronounced than in DM according to our leading indicators. This growth gap in favour of EM supports a recovery in EM currencies.
Chinese Yuan
How to manage FX risks when investing in China bonds? Concerns over RMB depreciation have hindered global investors’ appetite for China bonds The key question for many investors is: “what is the best strategy to manage the RMB FX risk?”
US-Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc During the last few weeks, the EURUSD has continued its sideways movement. Obviously, in this environment of high volatility in equity and bond markets, investors found it difficult to favor any currency. The most recent
Market outlook All CEE currencies except for the Serbian dinar gained last week. While the koruna, forint, zloty and leu benefited the most from the EURUSD development, the appreciation of the Croatian kuna seems to have been driven by strong
EUR/USD – environment continues to favor the dollar The US dollar gained additional ground in recent weeks. The drivers were both the political backdrop (Brexit, Italy's budget) and the deterioration in European economic data. In our opinion these dollar-supportive factors
Overzicht Er kunnen soms lange periodes zijn waarin de prestaties van een valuta het rendement van een portefeuille op korte termijn uithollen. Door te beleggen in een product met valutahedging kunnen beleggers dat risico mogelijk opvangen. SPDR biedt een valuta-hedged
FX market monthly review The US dollar has regained some ground in recent weeks, reaching its highest level since mid-2017. A favourable interest rate differential to the rest of the G10 appears the strongest support to the currency at the
Regional view – Asia Since the prospect of a US-China truce remains low at this point, we continue to urge investors to hedge their CNY exposure over the next 12 months.
The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).
Fresh #StarkieBlog! https://t.co/YZrzQpIlIQ
Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen
