The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

🕔09:26, 16.aug 2019

China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibas­am.com/the­fuss­aboutchinas­current­account­deficit­and­global­cost­of­capital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,

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Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

🕔12:00, 13.aug 2019

A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United

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Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

🕔08:51, 20.jul 2019

The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad

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Sell in May and go away?

Sell in May and go away?

🕔13:02, 10.mei 2019

The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔04:03, 3.mei 2019

Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the

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The next global currency shift

The next global currency shift

🕔11:02, 26.apr 2019

A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks

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Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

🕔11:02, 26.apr 2019

A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that

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Dedollari$ation

Dedollari$ation

🕔11:02, 26.apr 2019

How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps

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What is driving de-dollarisation?

What is driving de-dollarisation?

🕔11:02, 26.apr 2019

Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US

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Why the US dollar remains centre stage

Why the US dollar remains centre stage

🕔11:02, 26.apr 2019

Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the

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EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

🕔03:06, 29.mrt 2019

Forex News  The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our

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EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

🕔03:06, 29.mrt 2019

Forex News  The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our

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Valutarisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

Valutarisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

🕔14:03, 8.mrt 2019

Individueel Defined Contribution Individueel Defined Contribution (iDC) regelingen krijgen steeds meer aandacht. Dit zijn beschikbare premieregelingen waarbij de inleg vaststaat en het pensioen voor een belangrijk deel afhangt van het behaalde rendement op de beleggingen. Een individuele regeling klinkt misschien

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EUR/USD: How long will the bandwidth hold?

EUR/USD: How long will the bandwidth hold?

🕔03:06, 1.mrt 2019

Forex News Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been trading at the lower end of the range that has existed since autumn of last year and dropped temporarily below the 1.13 mark. The volatility measured over a month

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The EM currencies strike back?

The EM currencies strike back?

🕔14:04, 22.feb 2019

Emerging markets monitor The growth deceleration in emerging markets will be much less pronounced than in DM according to our leading indicators. This growth gap in favour of EM supports a recovery in EM currencies.

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Chinese Yuan

Chinese Yuan

🕔14:04, 22.feb 2019

Chinese Yuan

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Make RMB your Friend

Make RMB your Friend

🕔02:01, 1.feb 2019

How to manage FX risks when investing in China bonds? Concerns over RMB depreciation have hindered global investors’ appetite for China bonds The key question for many investors is: “what is the best strategy to manage the RMB FX risk?”

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔03:03, 21.dec 2018

US-Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc During the last few weeks, the EURUSD has continued its sideways movement. Obviously, in this environment of high volatility in equity and bond markets, investors found it difficult to favor any currency. The most recent

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CEE Market Insights

CEE Market Insights

🕔02:07, 11.dec 2018

Market outlook All CEE currencies except for the Serbian dinar gained last week. While the koruna, forint, zloty and leu benefited the most from the EURUSD development, the appreciation of the Croatian kuna seems to have been driven by strong

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔03:04, 30.nov 2018

EUR/USD – environment continues to favor the dollar The US dollar gained additional ground in recent weeks. The drivers were both the political backdrop (Brexit, Italy's budget) and the deterioration in European economic data. In our opinion these dollar-supportive factors

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Redenen om S&P 500 exposure te hedgen naar euro

Redenen om S&P 500 exposure te hedgen naar euro

🕔19:02, 5.nov 2018

Overzicht Er kunnen soms lange periodes zijn waarin de prestaties van een valuta het rendement van een portefeuille op korte termijn uithollen. Door te beleggen in een product met valutahedging kunnen beleggers dat risico mogelijk opvangen. SPDR biedt een valuta-hedged

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Can the US dollar go much higher?

Can the US dollar go much higher?

🕔15:03, 25.okt 2018

FX market monthly review The US dollar has regained some ground in recent weeks, reaching its highest level since mid-2017. A favourable interest rate differential to the rest of the G10 appears the strongest support to the currency at the

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The USDCNY’s unhappy marriage

The USDCNY’s unhappy marriage

🕔02:02, 23.okt 2018

Regional view – Asia  Since the prospect of a US-China truce remains low at this point, we continue to urge investors to hedge their CNY exposure over the next 12 months. 

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The revenge of FX Value

The revenge of FX Value

🕔13:03, 1.okt 2018

FX market monthly review In a value rebound, the best performing G10 currencies over the past month were the Swedish krona and the pound sterling. The US dollar seems to have lost momentum despite very strong carry prospects. We maintain

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Emerging markets in context

Emerging markets in context

🕔05:11, 8.sep 2018

Emerging market inequalities It has been a volatile summer for emerging market (EM) assets, particularly since early August. However, while all major EMs have depreciated against the USD in recent weeks, the scale of the sell-off has not been uniform.

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