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Emerging market exchange rates: cheap or value traps?

Emerging market exchange rates: cheap or value traps?

🕔09:19, 1.Dec 2020

Investment Insights Over the past decade, emerging market (EM) currencies have weakened significantly and local currency bond investors have seen little exchange rate returns. In fact, EM exchange rates (FX) have been a major source of volatility … Key Takeaways

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A motionless journey: From CFA franc to eco

A motionless journey: From CFA franc to eco

🕔11:05, 15.Jun 2020

The reform of the currency is mainly symbolic In 2019, the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU1 ) initiated a shift from the CFA franc, the local currency, to a newly created currency – the eco. This marked the

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How will emerging market debt emerge from the crisis?

How will emerging market debt emerge from the crisis?

🕔14:15, 5.Jun 2020

Key takeaways The impact of the recent volatility has varied greatly within emerging markets, particularly between the investment grade and higher yielding parts of the asset class. This has been reflected in the differences in yields in local and hard

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5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

5 things to know about Chinese and emerging market stocks

🕔12:42, 28.May 2020

China has seemingly “flattened the curve.” The same cannot be said of the US.   

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CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

CEE FX taking breather after first virus wave

🕔11:35, 26.May 2020

CEE Forex News | CEE | FX  After the first wave of the new coronavirus, FX markets in the region have calmed down. Things are far from being back to normal, however. Due to  …

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔10:53, 30.Apr 2020

The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either

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When Cheap Gets Cheaper

When Cheap Gets Cheaper

🕔08:07, 14.Apr 2020

It is always darkest before the down It has been an extraordinary four weeks in markets worldwide. In the past 20 trading sessions, the S&P 500 has seen more 3%+ daily swings than it had in the previous 5 years.

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USD: No sustained trend visible

USD: No sustained trend visible

🕔11:00, 2.Apr 2020

US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc  The EURUSD is currently extremely volatile. While the euro was able to make significant gains for the time being due to the sharply reduced interest rate differential between the US and the Eurozone, a

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Less downside risk, but don’t chase markets

Less downside risk, but don’t chase markets

🕔16:02, 27.Mar 2020

The core asset class views dashboard reflects the key views of the Investment Committee of the Multi-Asset team  Despite investor scepticism, 2019 was a bull market for every asset class (Figure 1). Indeed, assets benefited from the strongly dovish stance

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Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

Coronavirus brings recession to CEE

🕔08:05, 24.Mar 2020

Eurozone in recession, CEE as well The spread of coronavirus to Europe and exponentially rising number of infected people forced the introduction of preventive measures to reduce its speed. CEE countries have done so at a relatively early stage, but

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All eyes on Hungarian central bank

All eyes on Hungarian central bank

🕔09:56, 25.Feb 2020

This week in CEE This week, the Hungarian central bank meeting is likely to be a key event. After the surge in the January inflation rate toward 4.7% y/y, the central bank verbally intervened by saying it will do whatever

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An explanation of the recent monetary acceleration in the US

An explanation of the recent monetary acceleration in the US

🕔12:05, 20.Feb 2020

Measured on a year-on-year percent change basis, M2 and M3 growth have both been accelerating in the US since late 2018. There are two main reasons why broad money growth acceleration has occurred, and in this article, we explain how

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Growth and inflation in CEE

Growth and inflation in CEE

🕔08:36, 11.Feb 2020

This week in CEE This week, a series of two equally important releases is scheduled: inflation and economic growth in the last quarter. Inflationary pressure remains elevated in the region, as in all countries the headline inflation number should land

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FX wars, currency wars & money wars

FX wars, currency wars & money wars

🕔06:46, 7.Feb 2020

Part 1: FX wars vs. currency wars USD vs. EUR vs. RMB vs. … The concept of “currency war” was officially coined by the Brazilian Finance Minister Guido Mantega in September 2010, a little less than 10 years ago. He considered that emerging

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Strong issuance year with notable ‘firsts’

Strong issuance year with notable ‘firsts’

🕔09:05, 28.Jan 2020

2019 market review and analysis In the market for corporate Schuldscheindarlehen, 2019 was one of the stronger years in terms of issuance, but failed – according to our calculations – to reach the record levels of 2016 and 2017: Around

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ForexNews – USdollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc

ForexNews – USdollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc

🕔12:38, 23.Jan 2020

USD: Euro should gain   Over the past few weeks, EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a recovery in the Eurozone,

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USD: Euro should gain

USD: Euro should gain

🕔10:05, 23.Jan 2020

Forex News – US dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been hovering in a relatively narrow range around 1.11. With a stable economy in the US and so far only modest indications of a

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The ECB, the FED, rates, yields and currencies

The ECB, the FED, rates, yields and currencies

🕔14:02, 22.Jan 2020

As much as central banks drive bond markets, as little they drive currencies. At least in the short term. But in 2020 they are likely to drive little anyways. Even though central banks were once again among the most important

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Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

Poland to have complete set of 4Q19 data

🕔10:26, 21.Jan 2020

This week in CEE The CEE calendar is pretty empty of macro releases apart from Poland. There, we begin with data on the labor market, in particular employment and wage growth in December. Labor market conditions have been tight and not much

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USD: Better environment speaks against dollar

USD: Better environment speaks against dollar

🕔14:08, 28.Nov 2019

For most of November, the EURUSD remained in a very narrow range between 1.10 and 1.11. There was little reaction to the improvement in some economic data from the Eurozone. This was probably due to the approaching end of the

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Hidden Costs in FX Management

Hidden Costs in FX Management

🕔10:03, 28.Nov 2019

How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees

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Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

Are we witnessing the US dollar’s fall from grace?

🕔12:29, 20.Nov 2019

November’s multi-asset chart of the month highlights how a global shortage of US dollars could be reversing. This could signal the beginning of a weak phase for the currency.

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UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?

🕔15:57, 12.Nov 2019

The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his

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Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

Reiterating our cautiously constructive market outlook

🕔16:34, 7.Nov 2019

LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Despite the so-called trade war, China's CSI 300 has rallied almost 30% year-to-date and the S&P 500 is up about 15%. In-vestors, it seems, are learning to live with the intensifying great power

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Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

Macro and earnings no worse than feared, but is this rally justified?

🕔15:51, 7.Nov 2019

An October treat: strong equity rally as macro data are no worse than feared Trimming 2020E S&P 500 EPS from 173 USD to 170 USD, 4% growth Fed fully delivered on its "insurance" rate cuts: What from here? We are

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US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

US Fed takes a pill to sooth its ‘shrinking pains’

🕔08:42, 7.Nov 2019

House View October 2019 A prominent topic in the last month (aside from the ECB’s aggressive new monetary stimulus) was the sudden cash crunch in the repo market, i.e., the market for very short-term, typically overnight, lending. On Monday, September 16,

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Geopolitical clouds start to clear

Geopolitical clouds start to clear

🕔15:35, 6.Nov 2019

In Short While some data misses continue, especially in manufacturing and in Europe, we believe that economic releases are pointing towards a stabilization in growth. Optimism is spreading that the worst may be behind us, thanks to improvements in the

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Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

Five U.S. Dollar Themes to Watch

🕔18:09, 4.Nov 2019

The currency has remained resilient despite the slowing U.S. economy Interest rate cuts are usually associated with currency depreciation, but this is not always the case with the U.S. dollar. A key factor in determining the value of the dollar

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Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

🕔12:43, 3.Oct 2019

This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration

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USD: environment continues to support the dollar

USD: environment continues to support the dollar

🕔17:05, 26.Sep 2019

The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could

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The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

The renminbi conundrum: the external surplus and the exchange rate

🕔09:26, 16.Aug 2019

China’s current account has defied consensus (https://china.bnpparibas­am.com/the­fuss­aboutchinas­current­account­deficit­and­global­cost­of­capital/) , and recorded a surplus of 1.6% of GDP in Q2 2019, up from a 1.5% surplus in Q1. How can that be? The answer must lie in the financial and capital accounts,

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Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

Role of cross currency swap markets in funding and investment decisions

🕔12:00, 13.Aug 2019

A US dollar funding premium in the EUR/USD cross currency swap market has been in existence since 2008. Whilst there are many reasons behind this dislocation, since 2014 the divergence in monetary policy between the euro area and the United

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Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

Currencies: Us Dollar Bar For Us Fx Intervention Remains High

🕔08:51, 20.Jul 2019

The Trump administration has been focusing on the US’s trade deficit with some of its main trading partners such as China and Germany. A strong dollar is exacerbating this deficit and has visibly exasperated President Trump. Indeed, the Fed’s broad

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Sell in May and go away?

Sell in May and go away?

🕔13:02, 10.May 2019

The strong performance of risk assets year-to-date has increased focus on the potential returns from a “sell in May and go away” strategy. We explain why such an approach may not be warranted this year for investors in emerging market

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔04:03, 3.May 2019

Forex news The latest data confirms our expectation that the EURUSD should have bottomed out in the course of the second quarter and that the euro should gain some ground by the end of the quarter. Economic growth in the

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The next global currency shift

The next global currency shift

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

A post-dollar world While the dollar enjoys unipolar dominance, as outlined in "Why the US dollar remains centre stage", the next currency transition may not necessarily result in a ‘winner takes all’ outcome. Our paper, "What is driving de-dollarisation?", looks

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Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

Exploring the history of US dollar dominance

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

A brief history of dime Twentieth century history provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance. While unipolar dominance may seem like the norm, history tells us that

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Dedollari$ation

Dedollari$ation

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

How a global currency shift may surprise investors The global currency shift: A changing investment landscape presents compelling opportunities . The US dollar has dominated financial markets in the post-war period, but countries across the globe are increasingly taking steps

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What is driving de-dollarisation?

What is driving de-dollarisation?

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

Pass the buck History provides us with a valuable roadmap to understand the rise of the US dollar to a position of unipolar global dominance, as highlighted in our papers, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", and "Why the US

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Why the US dollar remains centre stage

Why the US dollar remains centre stage

🕔11:02, 26.Apr 2019

Top dollar The US dollar has enjoyed a dominant position for almost 30 years. Our paper, "Exploring the history of dollar dominance", looks at how the dollar cemented its position since the second world war. This paper focuses on the

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EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

🕔03:06, 29.Mar 2019

Forex News  The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our

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EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

EUR/USD: Low should be reached in Q2

🕔03:06, 29.Mar 2019

Forex News  The latest statements by representatives of the US Federal Reserve mean that we no longer forecast the next interest rate hike for June, but only another hike at the end of the year. Accordingly, we have changed our

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Valutarisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

Valutarisico binnen individueel Defined Contribution

🕔14:03, 8.Mar 2019

Individueel Defined Contribution Individueel Defined Contribution (iDC) regelingen krijgen steeds meer aandacht. Dit zijn beschikbare premieregelingen waarbij de inleg vaststaat en het pensioen voor een belangrijk deel afhangt van het behaalde rendement op de beleggingen. Een individuele regeling klinkt misschien

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EUR/USD: How long will the bandwidth hold?

EUR/USD: How long will the bandwidth hold?

🕔03:06, 1.Mar 2019

Forex News Over the past few weeks, the EURUSD has been trading at the lower end of the range that has existed since autumn of last year and dropped temporarily below the 1.13 mark. The volatility measured over a month

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The EM currencies strike back?

The EM currencies strike back?

🕔14:04, 22.Feb 2019

Emerging markets monitor The growth deceleration in emerging markets will be much less pronounced than in DM according to our leading indicators. This growth gap in favour of EM supports a recovery in EM currencies.

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Chinese Yuan

Chinese Yuan

🕔14:04, 22.Feb 2019

Chinese Yuan

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Make RMB your Friend

Make RMB your Friend

🕔02:01, 1.Feb 2019

How to manage FX risks when investing in China bonds? Concerns over RMB depreciation have hindered global investors’ appetite for China bonds The key question for many investors is: “what is the best strategy to manage the RMB FX risk?”

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔03:03, 21.Dec 2018

US-Dollar, Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc During the last few weeks, the EURUSD has continued its sideways movement. Obviously, in this environment of high volatility in equity and bond markets, investors found it difficult to favor any currency. The most recent

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CEE Market Insights

CEE Market Insights

🕔02:07, 11.Dec 2018

Market outlook All CEE currencies except for the Serbian dinar gained last week. While the koruna, forint, zloty and leu benefited the most from the EURUSD development, the appreciation of the Croatian kuna seems to have been driven by strong

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Forex News

Forex News

🕔03:04, 30.Nov 2018

EUR/USD – environment continues to favor the dollar The US dollar gained additional ground in recent weeks. The drivers were both the political backdrop (Brexit, Italy's budget) and the deterioration in European economic data. In our opinion these dollar-supportive factors

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