Can both equities and bonds be right?
It’s been a good start to the year, with positive returns on most assets. Upcoming Fed decisions may determine the immediate path of yields. But bonds are back and we think fund flows may push …
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Tag "global"
Global House View – December 2022
A deeper earnings downgrade is expected as valuations are yet to fully price in a recession Credit spreads, particularly in higher-grade assets, remain relatively …
Views in brief: Maneuvering through uncharted territory in a new year
Global tactical asset allocation views brief: Global equities slumped over 2022, posting their worst annual returns since 2008, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine added to already heightened inflationary pressures and caused the biggest energy price shock since the 1970s. Central
The Global Risks Report 2023
The first years of this decade have heralded a particularly disruptive period in human history. The return to a “new normal” following the COVID-19 pandemic was quickly disrupted by the outbreak of war in Ukraine, ushering in a fresh series
Long Term Outlook: Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2023-2026
To many investors, this year will feel like a rollercoaster. Several major developments have impacted the world economy, and in response, financial markets have reacted fiercely by repricing asset markets. Especially at times like these, it’s important to take a
2023 Multi-Asset Opportunities
Valuations, now close to their long-term norms after last year’s sell-off, should be less of a headwind for investors in 2023 than in 2022, although global economic growth is slowing on the back of tighter monetary and fiscal …
Feeling our way towards recovery
In the final quarter of 2022, global equities recovered some of the ground lost earlier in the year. Inflationary pressures eased somewhat, and the pace of monetary tightening slowed. The outlook for equity markets remains uncertain in the near term,
World markets review – Fourth quarter 2022
Global stocks rose as investors welcomed signs that inflation may have peaked in key markets around the world. Consumer price increases — while still high on a historical basis — moderated in the U.S., Europe and …
ETF Global Outlook
Axel Lomholt, Chief Product Officer, STOXX and DAX Indices, at Qontigo, believes that ETFs have maintained their popularity in 2022 despite the challenging market conditions. “As we have witnessed before, investors prioritise ‘safe products’ during uncertainty. We saw the same
War and Peace
In 2019, James Sweeney, then chief economist at Credit Suisse, popped into my office and said “you know this pandemic and lockdowns… this is where your world [funding] and my world [global industrial production] intersect, because supply chains are payment
Capital Group – Webinar – Upheaval in global energy: from transition to security?
Energy security has become a top strategic priority for many countries. Will it upend or reshape the transition to green energy? Two of our investment professionals discuss how their analysis and views have evolved following the Russia-Ukraine war and other
Building Asymmetry in Portfolios
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
Global Energy – a force in transition
The global energy landscape has started to transition away from fossil and CO2 heavy fuels to more renewable sources. This trend has been well underway for several years. As of 2019, fossil fuels, as the predominant source of energy, collectively
Peaks and valleys
Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, our outlook acknowledged a hard truth for investors nursing wounds from the steep market downturn: We’re not out of the woods yet. That theme still holds, but the contours of the investment landscape have
Opportunity in a volatile world
In last year’s outlook (Outlook 2022: Pivoting to a new era) we discussed the idea that the world was entering a new macroeconomic regime after three decades in which globalisation and the technology revolution drove rapid growth in the supply
A fundamental reset
Investment Outlook 2023: If 2022 confronted investors with stiff headwinds, 2023 is likely to be challenging as well. After all, financial conditions are all but certain to remain tight and the fundamental reset of macroeconomics and geopolitics is continuing. Investors
Global Wealth Report 2022
By the end of 2021, global wealth totaled an estimated USD 463.6 trillion, which is an increase of 9.8% versus 2020 and far above the average annual +6.6% recorded since the beginning of the century. Setting aside exchange rate movements,
Global View – Q4 2022
Asset class returns in the long term We have certainly had plenty of surprises this year. As far as the economy is concerned, few of them have been positive so far. The war in Ukraine and the bottlenecks created by
Against Utopia: The Need for a Pragmatic Transition
Transitioning to a fossil fuel free world requires pragmatic decisions in the short term – and investing where our money can have the most impact.
Global Tail Risks Report
In January 2020, the world was hit with some jarring news: The first human-to-human transmission of COVID-19 was reported in Europe. According to news reports at the time, a German man acquired the infection from a colleague who had recently
ESG Global Study: Chapter 2
Investors looking to access a broad range of ESG themes are therefore tasked with buying several singlethematic or narrowly focused funds. This underscores the need for all-inone, fully diversified solutions that target a wide array of sustainable goals through one
Krachtige trends drijven private equityinvesteringen in gezondheid
Aan de basis van private equity beleggingen in het thema gezondheid staan krachtige macrotrends, zoals vergrijzing en het ‘consumentisme’ van de gezondheidszorg. De private equitymarkt is snel volwassen geworden en in omvang verdrievoudigd in het afgelopen decennium: van 2.000 miljard
Where does inflation go from here?
Financial markets rebounded strongly after October’s US consumer price print surprised to the downside. We would not put too much emphasis on one month’s data and would await confirmation before sounding the all-clear. Nevertheless, we think inflation will remain an
A decade of global equity income investing
10 years is a long time in any walk of life. In the investment world it can feel like a lifetime. Since 2012 we have been through the depths of the European Sovereign Debt crisis, one of the longest equity
Asset owners widely adopting sustainable investment
2022 global survey findings from asset owners: By now, we’re all aware that sustainable investment isn’t a new phenomenon, idea or even a quick fix, but rather the current and future of investments. With that in mind, our findings demonstrate
The 2022 Geography of Cryptocurrency Report
Everything you need to know about crypto adoption around the globe: Our data shows that global adoption has leveled off in the last year after growing consistently since mid-2019. We look at this trend in the chart below, where we
How long might the dollar rally last?
A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb
Bad news turning good
Extracting a common thread from last week’s abundant information flows was impossible. Perhaps the critical item will be the weakness of the US economy revealed by detailed GDP data. Last week was rich in information. From UK and Chinese politics,
Global Fixed Income Update – October 2022
Growth is slowing but not collapsing. Elevated inflation is squeezing household incomes, confidence and spending, leading to a slowdown in economic activity as illustrated in Figure 1. Recently, weaker activity has been registered in both the manufacturing and service sectors,
Anywhere to Hide?
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: Hopes for a continuation of the summer rally off the June lows were dashed in the back half of the third quarter. The inflection lower in risk assets coincided with Fed Chairman Jerome
Attractive opportunities remain across four key credit markets
It has been a challenging year for fixed income markets in 2022 amid rising inflation and slowing global growth. While uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, today’s starting yields offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Yields across sectors
Collaborating to boost engagement impact
Active Ownership Report 2020: Welcome to our second annual Active Ownership Report, in which we report on our activities globally for the first time. The objective of this report is to inform our clients and other stakeholders of our stewardship
Into the unknown
Q4 2022 Investment Outlook: The global economy is facing a confluence of shocks, most recently the severe reaction in UK assets and FX to the new fiscal package (roughly 10% of GDP, unfunded). Market confidence has continued to slide on
Cyclical Outlook: Prevailing Under Pressure
Our baseline cyclical forecast includes shallow recessions and rising unemployment across large developed markets, with growth unlikely to bounce back quickly. Central bankers appear squarely focused on …
Global House View – Q4 2022
The year 2022 seems to have caused a regime shift in financial markets. In previous years, the assumption largely was that the world had more a deflationary issue due to aging, globalization and lack of bargaining power of labor. However
Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands
In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in
Global Strategy 4Q 2022
Persistently high inflation rates and a significant increase in interest rates are weighing on economic momentum and pushing up volatility on the financial markets. In addition, geopolitical tensions are in place that favour safe-haven flows. We regard the medium and
Could emerging markets be more vulnerable to rising food costs?
The subject of inflation has been seemingly omnipresent over the past two years as the global economy moved beyond the initial shock of a global economic shutdown into a world of supply disruptions and pent-up consumer demand. Initial conjecture over
Global Fixed Income Mid-Year 2022 Outlook
We expect the second half of 2022 to present the same macro headwinds that posed a challenge in the first half: inflation, aggressive central bank action, growth concerns and wavering sentiment. Broadly, the pace and aggressiveness at which central …
Supply chain shifts signal reglobalisation
The fragility of global supply chains exposed during the COVID-19 pandemic remains one of the top economic challenges facing the world. In one respect, globalisation has long been characterised by developed market countries offshoring production to lower cost locations. But
China: Politburo drops GDP target and decrees stability in H2 2022
China has once again captured the attention of investors seeking shelter from unprecedented global policy tightening. This is understandable, as the country was first in, first out of the Covid pandemic and remains ahead of the curve in terms of
New Rules of Diversification
How to Prep Your Portfolio for a Different Kind of Recession Risk: During the first half of 2022, global equity markets tumbled around 20% from their January peak, with losses on typical stock/ bond portfolios almost as large, as bonds
Building Asymmetry in Portfolios
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
Lightening the sails and monitoring the storm
It was a bruising first half of the year for financial market participants, with U.S. and global stocks entering bear market territory while core bonds, generally considered “safe-haven” assets, declined by double digits. Russia’s war on Ukraine continues to warp
Inflation remains the priority amid slowing growth
The Federal Reserve did not surprise and raised its target range for the federal funds rate by 75 basis points to 2.25%-2.5%, referring to high inflation as its primary concern1 . A strong labour market supported a hawkish tone overall
Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
Q2 2022 Global Currency and Macroeconomic Highlights
Headline inflation will likely peak this quarter, but domestic service inflation should continue to rise. Growth is set to slow as consumers feel the squeeze in real …
Schroders Equity Lens – Q3 2022
Global equities fell in Q2, extending year-to-date declines. The MSCI World Index returned -16.2% in Q2, taking the YTD fall to -20.5%. The market backdrop remained dominated by concerns over higher inflation, rising …
Cloudy with a chance of recession
The slump in global equities deepened in the second quarter of 2022 as concerns about a recession replaced fears of high inflation and an escalation of the war in Ukraine seemed less likely. The US Federal Reserve has maintained its
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