A research study looking at structural shifts in the global economy and how they affect our investment thinking. A confluence of global megatrends is prompting structural shifts in many industries and changing the drivers of corporate earnings. Most major economies
Our views for the coming months After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary
As of noon on Friday, global equities rose this week amid signs that central banks are preparing to act if the global economy continues to weaken. With the market pricing in multiple rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the
Cross Asset Investment Strategy After weeks of relative stability, the threat of a trade war has returned, shaking investor confidence and awakening markets from complacency. However, while there is still a significant optimism in the market that a deal can
I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
Global Investment Views After weeks of relative stability, the threat of a trade war has returned, shaking investor confidence and awakening markets from complacency. However, while there is still a significant optimism in the market that a deal can be
Weekly Commentary Heightened geopolitical tensions increase the risk of cyberattacks, with growing market implications, in our view. Risk assets including stocks sold off on mounting worries about growth and U.S.-China tensions. UK Prime Minister Theresa May resigned. This week’s Chinese
It’s hard to listen to a podcast, read a blog post, or pick up the Wall Street Journal (do we still “pick up the paper”?) these days without encountering the word “quant”. Be it quantitative finance, quant strategies, quant hedge
A global slide in growth, inflation and tightening in financial conditions driven by volatility has validated a dovish tilt by major central banks in Q1, to head off global growth fears reminiscent of 2015-16 – though with important differences. The
Ariel Bezalel, Head of Strategy, Fixed Income, discusses the factors driving the rallies in stock and bond markets year to date and why he believes the global economy is vulnerable to a deflationary shock. There is a striking disparity between
In the space of just 12 months, markets have switched from expecting interest rate rises to expecting interest rate falls. Broadly speaking, this means 2019 should be a good year for fixed income. But investors are treading a fine line
Despite concerns about the macro-economic environment, corporate profits and dividends have so far largely met expectations. Dividends grew 7.8% in Q1 on a headline basis to a first quarter record of US$263.3 billion, in line with their 2018 growth rate.
In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not
The first month of Q2 has seen a continuation of mixed messages from markets. US equities reached all-time highs in late April, making up the ground lost since the previous high-water mark was set back in late September 2018. The
The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a portfolio. Given
Over my nearly 30-year investment career, I’ve learned the value of scrutiny and reflection. That may seem counterintuitive in today’s market environment where information flows more continuously and rapidly than ever before. While the investment landscape today is unrecognizable from
With equity markets strengthening and the Fed on hold there is talk of a surge, or melt-up in markets. Signs of economic recovery, low inflation and easier central bank policy in Europe and Asia reinforce the Goldilocks narrative. Macro headwinds
The economic slowdown that began in late 2018 has started to stabilize. Trade tensions and policy uncertainty took a toll on confidence and financial markets late last year, but both seem less threatening today. Financial conditions have eased as major
US vs. EU vs. China – USD vs. EUR vs. RMB When we talk about leadership, we also talk about rivalry… and 2018 was undoubtedly a particularly emblematic year of rivalry, especially between the United States and China, and to
Macro Weekly When I left for my sabbatical the global economy was stumbling along. It still is. But here is hope as…
Economy and markets The start of the year saw most major indices recover with double digit growth after a disappointing fourth quarter of 2018. Global equities rose 12.6% during the first quarter of 2019, as measured by the benchmark MSCI
Pay report 2019 As the gender pay gap takes centre stage, one of the greatest taboos in professional life seems to be coming to an end. Indeed, coupled with millennials’ willingness to share even the most sensitive information, the issue
Global Overview We have altered our projection for the global economy this quarter by capturing a more gentle slowdown in growth over the next two years. We have revised down our 2019 forecast to 2.8% but increased our projection for
Asset Allocation Consensus Equities June 2019 on Youtube: https://t.co/WD3mMy1JgI
