Macro and Market Perspectives We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and one-off setbacks
Central banks have used different types of forward guidance, where the forward guidance horizon is related to a state contingency, a calendar date or left open-ended. This paper reports cross-country evidence on the impact of these different types of forward
Welcome to the second annual Invesco Global Fixed Income Study, part of Invesco’s suite of thought leadership studies, including the Global Sovereign Asset Management Study and the Global Factor Investing Study. In 2019, we have nearly doubled the respondents to
The continuous string of bad economic numbers started to eat away at market confidence. The fact that the policy objective of central banks was to normalize policy didn’t help, as it could imply that they would be less sensitive to
Multi-asset House Views At the beginning of the year, we believed that market fears about recession were unwarranted and that, as contrarian investors, we should lean against growth pessimism by owning risk asset classes. We argued that the economic system
Multi Asset Outlook We think easier policy is priced by the market and investors should consider more defensive positioning as growth cools. We would consider the following Favor credit over equities, and within credit, investment-grade and high-yield bonds over bank
Trade disputes and country-specific issues dampen the global growth outlook and lead to elevated volatility in financial markets. Central banks have postponed their expected rate hikes and safe haven investments are moreover benefiting from the threat of a hard Brexit.
Macro Quarterly Calm after the storm—or before a new one? After the volatility of late 2018, 2019 has proven much kinder to global risk assets thus far. Ironically, in our view it was precisely the severity of market concerns about
Cross Asset Investment Strategy Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are two main driving forces to focus on in
Research & Strategy Insights March macro data have been mixed in the US (manufacturing output contracting and surveys softening vs. elevated in services) and the Eurozone (disappointing Purchasing Managers indices and core inflation vs. more upbeat domestic surveys) In March,
March brought more steady gains to U.S. equity markets, although with a little more volatility than in February. This month, dispersion, volatility and correlation for the S&P 500 were all a shade under their historical medians.
The long view Overdue and not entirely unwelcome: That’s one way to look at the correction in equity markets during 2018. Although swift declines can be unsettling, they have long been part of the investment environment. “The correction was overdue,”
Investment Highlights De groei van de eurozone-economie zwakte in het vierde kwartaal verder af. De afkoeling werd verwacht omdat diverse vertrouwensindicatoren al langer op een afzwakking duiden. Er zijn wel grote verschillen tussen de landen. In Spanje kwam de economische
Investment Traffic Lights What was lost has been regained might sum up the past month. Many financial markets recovered in January almost exactly what they gave up in December. December 24 marked the low point of the almost perfect V-shaped
While macro data have been scant and mixed, the US Federal Reserve surprised with a very dovish tone Eurozone GDP ended 2018 in line with our expectations, with Italy in recession but France and Spain showing upside resilience. We see
Cross Asset Investment Strategy 2019 begins with a synchronised global slowdown. All recently published data, particularly trade and manufacturing data, show that economic activity is slowing in all countries simultaneously. In China, exports and imports contracted sharply in December, as
MaandJournaal Binnen EMD HC hebben we ook een voorkeur voor Frontier Market Debt (FMD). Dit zijn leningen van landen die aan het begin van hun ontwikkeling staan en nog sterk kunnen groeien. In tegenstelling tot wat veel mensen denken, is
It is widely accepted among investment professionals that, while portfolio optimization has compelling theoretical merit, it is not useful in practice. Practitioners are concerned that optimization is an “error maximizing” 1 process fraught with insurmountable estimation issues. The abstract of
Emerging markets debt (EMD) index performance was mixed in Q4. Local market performance finished in positive territory, sovereign performance was negative, and corporates were roughly flat. Differentiation between countries continues to be significant, though problems have begun to spread. Valuations
2019 Investment Outlook In this investment outlook, we present our short-term outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) for our SRI funds is based on these short-term expectations. With our TAA we exploit short-term
What are the key factors currently impacting the global corporate bond market? The big question affecting the markets is how far into the cycle we are. The US economy is experiencing its longest running expansion in more than 100 years.
2018 was voor de financiële markten in zekere zin het spiegelbeeld van 2017. Twaalf maanden geleden werd een voor de markten vrij uitzonderlijk jaar afgesloten, waarin de meeste indexen in lokale munt met ruim 10% waren opgeveerd. Een jaar later
Twee jaar geleden verliep het economische herstel gelijkmatig in alle regio's, en nu lijkt ook de economische vertraging alle regio's te treffen. In de Verenigde Staten beginnen de zwakkere prestaties van de auto-industrie en de vastgoedsector navolging te krijgen in
The fourth quarter of 2018 proved a torrid time for global markets. Softening data and earnings guidance suggested a global slowdown. Combined with tightening global monetary conditions, US-China trade tensions and European political uncertainty, a backdrop emerged that weighed negatively
To chase or not to chase the rally?
👤BlackRock 🕔02:09, 5.Feb 2019Weekly Commentary We argue for a carefully balanced investment approach as global risk assets have bounced back from the late 2018 selloff. The Federal Reserve’s dovish messaging helped lift stocks. U.S. government bond yields hit nearly one-month lows before reversing
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