CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy While a global recession may be avoided, we are likely to see growth deceleration and high inflation (higher cost of living) along with regional divergences. Thus, investors should consider moving to a more cautious stance on
Table of Contents The Gas Crisis is Coming to America The Commodity Bull Market has Just Begun Inflation and Magazine Covers Part III Market Commentary Out of Spare Capacity Catastrophic Agriculture Markets Russia and the Uranium Fuel Cycle The Time
Introduction: of Wolves and Bears “To ignore the warning signs and continue with the strategies of the past is to ignore the third, crucial cry of wolf.” Key Takeaways In our special analysis from the fall of 2020, "The Boy
“Gold and silver is money. Everything else is credit.” J.P. Morgan A few words from the real world I have just secured the mortgage on my new home. In the end, I opted for a loan which tracks 3-month EURIBOR
For most of the past year, gold has been ignoring the red-hot inflation that we have been living in. Our internal forecasts model indicates that gold, when factoring in a US inflation rate of 7.9% in February 2022, should be
Each month, the State Street Global Advisors’ Investment Solutions Group (ISG) meets to debate and ultimately determine a Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA) that can be used to help guide near-term investment decisions for client portfolios. By focusing on asset allocation,
De Russische invasie van Oekraïne maakt de beleggers nerveus. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft de financiële markten onrustig gemaakt, met een sterke sell-off van aandelen en een rally van goud
Gold has done amazingly well, considering the rise in US treasury yields. Geopolitical tensions and fears of inflation may be helping. But we suspect that without US recession it has further …
Gold Outlook 2022: Gold may face similar dynamics in 2022 to those of last year, as competing forces support and curtail its performance. Near term, the gold price will likely react to real rates in response to the speed at
Gold is usually one of the largest commodities in an investor's portfolio, being used as an inflation hedge, as a safehaven asset or as part of broad commodities exposure (like the Bloomberg Commodity Index). Because most commodities cannot be accessed
CIO View October has seen new record highs and record returns Events were less friendly to bonds, as inflation fears are prompting central banks to act sooner than expected Many investors are hopeful of the traditional year-end rally, but the
In this paper, we evaluate the case for gold as a strategic allocation in an institutional portfolio. We start with a brief history of gold as an early form of money, its relationship to fiat currencies, and as an investment.
Inflation has emerged as a primary concern for investors.1 On balance, arguments for ‘uncomfortably high’ US inflation seem to outnumber those against, at least in the near term.2 A natural consequence of such a risk is for investors to seek
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on China’s gold market, leading to a 27% y-o-y drop in the nation’s gold demand in 2020. 1 One consequence of such weakness was the widest …
The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by compounding existing risks and creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. Looking ahead, we believe that investors will likely see the low interest rate environment as an opportunity to …
Global gold ETFs: A popular gateway to the gold market Gold-backed exchange-traded funds and similar products (gold ETFs)1 have flourished since their introduction in 2003, attracting both institutional and retail investors across the globe.2 Recently, gold has become globally accepted
Gold Correction U.S. dollar strength kept pressure on gold throughout September. The dollar, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY),1 trended higher as the stock market trended lower from its all-time highs. The pandemic stimulus-driven bull market looks to
Gold’s intrinsic value has been recognised for millennia but its role on the global stage changed fundamentally following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system. In 1971, US President Nixon suspended the dollar’s convertibility into gold. By 1973, advanced countries
Miners Remain Undervalued Despite Gold’s Run The strong gains of July carried on to early August. Gold reached an all-time high of $2,070 per ounce on 6 August amid U.S. dollar weakness and new lows in treasury yields. Gold then
The gold bull market passed two important sign-posts in July. The strength of the market is impressive as it blew through $1,800 and the all-time high of $1,921. These prices had been major technical resistance points set a decade ago.
Gold Passes Two Important Sign-Posts The gold bull market passed two important sign-posts in July. The strength of the market is impressive as it blew through $1,800 and the all-time high of $1,921. These prices had been major technical resistance
#32 The temperature in the Netherlands is going to be very high coming weekend. Therefore, please find our Top Five of week #32 right here, so you have something to read while drinking something cool! The monthly Global Investment Views
Recovery paths and impact on performance The Investors have embraced gold in 2020 as a key portfolio hedging strategy. Looking ahead, expectations for a faster recovery (V-shaped) from COVID-19 are shifting towards slower recovery (U-shaped), or potential setbacks from additional
The Role Of Gold A Less Than Perfect Inflation Hedge Gold has been on a tear over the last year, rising 32% while global equities have languished. Investors buy gold for many reasons, but a common objective is a hedge
#23 Asset Allocation might be the most used tag on OpinioPro and this past week is no different. Furthermore, of course the calendar is a well used page as well. Don’t forget to take a look and spot an interesting
“All roads lead to gold.” Takeaways Monetary policy normalization has failed …
Market Commentary The first four months of 2020 have been exceptional for financial markets due to the spread of the coronavirus. Out of all asset classes, commodities were probably hit most severely due to the general collapse in global economic
CIO Commodity Commentary Oil is again trading near its five-week high, with a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of around 29.5 dollars per barrel – a bit higher than half its end-February level. After April's rollercoaster …
The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12
Across the Multi Asset Open range, gold has been an important asset and hedging component for the portfolios over the last few years. Chris Forgan, Portfolio Manager and Charlotte Harington, Assistant Portfolio Manager of the Fidelity Multi Asset Open range
A new high in gold prices The stars seem to be aligned for gold prices Improvement in investor sentiment, aggressive monetary policy easing, ultra-low interest rates and fiscal stimulus have all supported gold prices We remain cautious and we expect
Spotlight While the humanitarian crisis continues unabated in many regions of the world, April should begin to see some respite in terms of infections starting first in Italy and hopefully continuing into other areas of continental Europe as well. As
Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut The desired gold position?
The gold price has been falling but a supportive rates environment and safe-haven demand brighten our outlook. The Saudi-Russian oil-price war broke out at the worst possible time. Any further negotiations are likely to involve a new kid on the
Over the last few weeks, world stock markets continued to be fuelled by strong risk appe- tite and inflows. However, more recently we have seen volatility rising as news on the coronavirus is turning worse. Markets can no longer ignore
Institutional Advisory & Solutions We find that gold has not performed particularly well compared to other assets. However, there is a place for gold-related assets in institutional portfolios separate from commodities and energy equities. The role for gold lies in
Het vertrouwen van Duitse ondernemers in de economische groeivooruitzichten bereikte afgelopen maand het hoogste niveau sinds de zomer van 2015. De ondertekening van het handelsdeelakkoord tussen de Verenigde Staten en China op 15 januari speelt daarbij een belangrijke rol. Er
Bitcoin as a Potential Store of Value Understanding the differences between monetary and intrinsic value Bitcoin’s combination of durability, scarcity, privacy, and its nature as A bearer asset all contribute to it holding monetary value Bitcoin is on the path
Global investment views At the beginning of 2019, all eyes were focused on Europe, not only because of the risk of a Hard Brexit, but also because of the open crisis between the Italian government and the European Commission. The situation
Investors’ Outlook 2020 Dear readers, the year 2020 is presenting many challenges for inves- tors. On the macroeconomic front, global growth is likely to slow further as trade tensions and higher tariffs are increasingly weighing on the economy. On the
Dear Reader, Following the shock caused by near-20% declines during the fourth quarter of 2018, global equity markets rebounded strongly in early 2019 as the US Federal Reserve brought its rate hikes to an end in the first quarter before
Global Market Outlook (In-brief) An improving outlook • We retain a constructive view on risk assets (equities and credit) and multiasset income strategies, especially over the next 3-6 months. • Within equities, we have a preference for Developed Markets. The
Legendary investor Warren Buffett’s much-quoted dismissal of the investment merits of gold is simple: the metal is “neither of much use nor procreative.” But the Oracle of Omaha has got this wrong. We believe that contrary to Warren Buffett’s complaints
In maart dit jaar publiceerde de Nederlandse Researcher @100trillionUSD het, ondertussen baanbrekende, rapport “Modeling Bitcoin’s Value with Scarcity”. Dit onderzoek gaat in op de relatie tussen de prijs en schaarste (stock to flow) bij Bitcoin. Wat is er zo speciaal
The stock-to-flow approach originating in commodity-market analysis serves to quantify the “hardness” of an asset. Applied to Bitcoin, an unusually strong correlation emerges between the market value of this cryptocurrency and the ratio between existing stockpiles of Bitcoin (“stock”) and
Onzekerheid troef terwijl de goudprijs recordhoogtes bereikt De handelsspanningen zijn handelsoorlogen geworden en de handelsoorlogen dreigen valuta-oorlogen te worden. Op 26 augustus bereikte de goudprijs zijn hoogste punt in zes jaar: 1.555 USD per ounce. De markten reageerden hiermee op
Na rally staat Goud op hoogste koers in zes jaar tijd Sinds de opmars vanaf augustus vorig jaar bereikte Goud na de “doorbraak” van USD 1400 de hoogste koers in zes jaar tijd. Alhoewel wij bij OpinioPro niet al te
In this chart of the month the multi-asset team asks whether gold could once again become the main hedge of choice as negatively yielding debt becomes increasingly common.
Gold prices have rallied by 17% this year. On 21 June our year-end forecast of USD 1,400 per ounce was reached and on 5 August our year-end 2020 forecast of USD 1,500 was also reached. We had expected higher gold
Global Investment Views The journey from market complacency to awareness of fragilities is in full swing, and the market correction in May is part of that, as is the recent recovery fuelled by dovish Central Banks (CB). Aware investors should
