While markets may not be “high risk” from a historical standpoint, investors have been shifting from optimistic to pessimistic on a regular basis. The rapid shifts in sentiment have been partly triggered by political issues, which are hard to predict,
Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007. Another prolonged period of underperformance for Book-to-Price and Earnings-to-Price happened between 1926 and 1941. This paper offers a theory for the connection between the two periods: they coincide with the central turning
Growth stocks continue to grow, value stocks continue to gain value, if this is defined as a discount to the market. This cannot go on forever. But still may for a while.
Wereldwijde groei zou moeten aantrekken als de handelsgeschillen niet verergeren. Dalende obligatierendementen wijzen op een omslag in de monetaire verwachtingen.
After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations (0.2%). To avert negative IP growth over the whole of Q2, IP will need to
Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area’s economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries.
Over my nearly 30-year investment career, I’ve learned the value of scrutiny and reflection. That may seem counterintuitive in today’s market environment where information flows more continuously and rapidly than ever before. While the investment landscape today is unrecognizable from
Despite massive disappointments in leading indicators and a flood of negative news, GDP growth in the Eurozone accelerated significantly to +0.4% q/q (previously +0.2% q/q) in 1Q19, based on a first flash estimate.
Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed
EZ: growth still under pressure Next week (April 30), the first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth for 1Q19 will be released. Given the continued disappointing development of leading indicators in the Eurozone, GDP data will also be in focus
In our latest Long View report, we described how the current Chinese growth slowdown could impact Western developed economies and how to assess it against the backdrop of the long-term evolution of the Chinese economy.1 Since then, the Chinese government
Fees are under pressure faster than market expected – is asset management no longer a growth sector? C-Suite must define a growth agenda to regain stock multiple. For alpha growth, look to China and Alts. Wholesale banks must restructure and
Strategy Espresso State Street Global Advisors forecasts that GDP growth in the eurozone will slow from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.6% through 2019.* Sure enough, economic data appears broadly positive and could continue to support earnings growth in equity markets. However,
Research & Strategy Insights US macro indicators (fourth quarter GDP and business surveys) are holding up but “cross currents” have justified a US Federal Reserve pause Eurozone activity indicators remain bleak and we have downgraded our 2019 growth forecast to
Monthly Investment Strategy When unfavourable one-offs and soft patches last, later becomes never
Monthly Investment Strategy Exploring the Risk Scenario of No Monetary Normalisation
Week Ahead The economic slowdown in the euro zone in the second half of 2018 was significantly stronger than originally expected and lowered the starting position for 2019. This makes it unlikely that the economy will have gained enough momentum
Invesco Investment Insights Market-structure improvements, better access and development of the asset-management sector to make investing in China A-shares easier. Active strategies, including quantitative investing, in the A-share market can help enhance returns, while local experts can advise on how
2019 Investment Outlook In this investment outlook, we present our short-term outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) for our SRI funds is based on these short-term expectations. With our TAA we exploit short-term
Macro and Market Perspectives We see global growth slowing as the expansion enters its final stage. The slowdown comes as the US economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. It is driven by elevated uncertainty around policy plans, the
Earnings season in full swing The IMF revised its growth forecasts for 2019 lower, primarily because of softer business conditions in the second half of 2018, US-China trade tensions and a sharper fall in China’s growth which is now seen
In this letter, I address the most common questions that we field at OSAM by discussing: 2018 performance Whether the market looks attractive as of January 2019 Factor performance during 2018 (which started fine and ended very badly) Our vision
On the fiscal front, lower oil prices turned current account surpluses into deficits which will need to be addressed by tax revenue measures and a reduction in spending on public wages and subsidies. In terms of structural adjustments, these countries
Macro and Market Perspectives We see global growth slowing as the expansion enters its final stage. The slowdown comes as the US economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. It is driven by elevated uncertainty around policy plans, the
Trade war and Federal Reserve weigh on global economy The global economic environment has deteriorated noticeably in the 2nd half of 2018. In our opinion the main reasons for this are the geopolitical agenda of the Trump administration (e.g. the
