What is a sentiment crash? should i be concerned? Changes in stock prices are driven by new information, primarily through changes in fundamentals, and/or multiple expansion (e.g., changes in a firm’s the price-to-forward earnings ratio over a specified time period).
Key views Growth: We revise up China real GDP growth forecast to 6.1% YoY in 2020 vs. 5.9% YoY previously considering potential de-escalation of China-US trade tensions and more decisive counter-cyclical efforts in China. Inflation: The potential “deal” between
QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group Global growth in 2019 was the weakest in a decade, weighed down by an escalation of the US-China trade war, which hit manufacturing and export sectors hard. Consumer sectors, propped up by strong labor markets
Market Insights In 2019, the U.S. stock market continued its streak of outperforming, rising by more than 31% versus 21% for the rest of the world, as measured by the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI All Country World ex-US Index
Equity markets in 2020: Watch out for a value rotation Indicators derived from monthly surveys of senior executives at selected companies that help in identifying economic trends. Growth investment style – It aims at investing in the growth potential of a
Major themes driving our views Slower global growth remains a concern Growth momentum is negative, but the consumer remains resilient. Trade disputes are only a symptom of broader, potentially longer-term, tension between the United States and China. With profit margins
Commentary Despite slowing growth and Britain’s ongoing struggles to map an exit from the E.U., central bank stimulus and falling yields helped European equities to mark their best year since 2009. The benchmark S&P Europe 350 rose 6% in the
Economic growth set to slow further: from 1.7% in 2019 to just under 1% in 2020 The Dutch economy managed to continue growing at a stable pace in the first three quarters of 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) achieved growth
Investors’ Outlook 2020 Dear readers, the year 2020 is presenting many challenges for inves- tors. On the macroeconomic front, global growth is likely to slow further as trade tensions and higher tariffs are increasingly weighing on the economy. On the
Putnam – Capital Markets Outlook As we enter the final quarter of the decade, the signals of late cycle behavior continue to grow louder. But, as the old trader adage says, “nobody rings a sell at the top.” We do not believe this
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a deal with the EU on Brexit. The deal takes the ‘backstop’ out of the equation, but puts an economic border in the Irish Sea. At the time of writing European leaders still have
Weak economic data releases last week, including a decade-low US ISM manufacturing index print of 47.8 and a surprisingly large fall in the nonmanufacturing index (from 56.4 to 52.6), drove a mid-week decline of 3% in the S&P 500 and
For some time now, our relatively downbeat outlook for corporate earnings has been a key driver of our cautious stance on risk assets and equities. Our outlook reflects our macroeconomic view, which sees a world where global growth is running
September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to
US hiring and wage growth missed estimates in September. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the third time this year, especially as it comes after a slew of disappointing US data this
Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the
We expect a pickup in global growth in the next six to 12 months, as policy stimulus gradually filters through to the real economy. The Fed has cut interest rates, but its noncommittal view on the rate outlook suggests expectations
We have been through an extraordinary period of value factor underperformance over the last 18 months. The only comparable periods over the last 30 years are the Tech Bubble and the GFC. Historically, we would expect a very sharp reversal
Next week (September 23), a first flash estimate of the manufacturing sentiment of the Eurozone, Germany and France for September will be released. In August, Eurozone manufacturing sentiment brightened slightly for the first time in a long while, but remained
Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends
Following the latest escalation of tensions, we are downgrading our forecasts for growth. The trade wars are taking a toll on the outlook for the world economy. We now expect global growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next (previous
“Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.” As Scottish poet Andrew Lang reminds us, statistics should be read critically. The assembly of economic results is constrained by data limitations, distorted
More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that
While markets may not be “high risk” from a historical standpoint, investors have been shifting from optimistic to pessimistic on a regular basis. The rapid shifts in sentiment have been partly triggered by political issues, which are hard to predict,
Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007. Another prolonged period of underperformance for Book-to-Price and Earnings-to-Price happened between 1926 and 1941. This paper offers a theory for the connection between the two periods: they coincide with the central turning
Which financial assets are well positioned and which ones are at risk as policy-makers brace for major COVID-19-induced demand shocks? Find out more in this piece.
‘Whatever it takes’: Fiscal Edition -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/ubp/whatever-it-takes-fiscal-edition/ #CentralBanks #china #coronavirus #credit #crisis #ECB #fiscalpolicy #fomc #COVID19 via
@UBP_Group
Middle Market Direct Lending: Benefits of Pursuing Both Sponsored and Non-Sponsored Transactions -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/franklin-templeton/middle-market-direct-lending-benefits-of-pursuing-both-sponsored-and-non-sponsored-transac/ #Banks #Credit #lending via
@FTI_Global
Eye on the Market: Man vs Nature -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/jp-morgan/eye-on-the-market-man-vs-nature/ #centralbanks #Fed #fomc #government via
@jpmorgan
@JPMorganAM
Can the world economy “afford” this scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus? -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/opiniopro-selection/can-the-world-economy-afford-this-scale-of-fiscal-and-monetary-stimulus/ #CentralBanks #coronavirus #FED #fiscalpolicy #fomc #inflation #COVID19 via
@Opinio_Pro
