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Tag "growth"

Mid-cycle slowdown…or something worse?

Mid-cycle slowdown…or something worse?

🕔09:48, 21.okt 2019

Weak economic data releases last week, including a decade-low US ISM manufacturing index print of 47.8 and a surprisingly large fall in the nonmanufacturing index (from 56.4 to 52.6), drove a mid-week decline of 3% in the S&P 500 and

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Slowing Corporate Profit Growth And Equity Markets

Slowing Corporate Profit Growth And Equity Markets

🕔09:45, 17.okt 2019

For some time now, our relatively downbeat outlook for corporate earnings has been a key driver of our cautious stance on risk assets and equities. Our outlook reflects our macroeconomic view, which sees a world where global growth is running

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September Eurozone Pmis Signal A Widening Contraction In Manufacturing And Services

September Eurozone Pmis Signal A Widening Contraction In Manufacturing And Services

🕔15:05, 10.okt 2019

September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to

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Gloomy week for US data puts spotlight on the Fed

Gloomy week for US data puts spotlight on the Fed

🕔14:46, 9.okt 2019

US hiring and wage growth missed estimates in September. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the third time this year, especially as it comes after a slew of disappointing US data this

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Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

Global economic slowdown underlined by weak sector data

🕔15:32, 8.okt 2019

Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the

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A growth recovery in waiting

A growth recovery in waiting

🕔15:57, 3.okt 2019

We expect a pickup in global growth in the next six to 12 months, as policy stimulus gradually filters through to the real economy. The Fed has cut interest rates, but its noncommittal view on the rate outlook suggests expectations

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Value Vs. Growth: the New BuBBle

Value Vs. Growth: the New BuBBle

🕔12:02, 30.sep 2019

We have been through an extraordinary period of value factor underperformance over the last 18 months. The only comparable periods over the last 30 years are the Tech Bubble and the GFC. Historically, we would expect a very sharp reversal

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Tailwind for Eurozone industry?

Tailwind for Eurozone industry?

🕔12:41, 24.sep 2019

Next week (September 23), a first flash estimate of the manufacturing sentiment of the Eurozone, Germany and France for September will be released. In August, Eurozone manufacturing sentiment brightened slightly for the first time in a long while, but remained

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A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

A Theory of Falling Growth and Rising Rents

🕔09:43, 16.sep 2019

Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends

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How trade wars are rocking the wobbly world economy

How trade wars are rocking the wobbly world economy

🕔13:30, 5.sep 2019

Following the latest escalation of tensions, we are downgrading our forecasts for growth.  The trade wars are taking a toll on the outlook for the world economy. We now expect global growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next (previous

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China’s “Real” GDP Growth

China’s “Real” GDP Growth

🕔12:46, 20.aug 2019

“Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.” As Scottish poet Andrew Lang reminds us, statistics should be read critically. The assembly of economic results is constrained by data limitations, distorted

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Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay

Growth concerns mount, despite tariff delay

🕔08:31, 20.aug 2019

More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that

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Growth or Value in Uncertain Times? Why Not Both?

Growth or Value in Uncertain Times? Why Not Both?

🕔17:16, 2.aug 2019

While markets may not be “high risk” from a historical standpoint, investors have been shifting from optimistic to pessimistic on a regular basis. The rapid shifts in sentiment have been partly triggered by political issues, which are hard to predict,

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Value Is Dead, Long Live Value

Value Is Dead, Long Live Value

🕔11:55, 30.jul 2019

Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007. Another prolonged period of underperformance for Book-to-Price and Earnings-to-Price happened between 1926 and 1941. This paper offers a theory for the connection between the two periods: they coincide with the central turning

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Growing Valuation Gap For Growth Stocks

Growing Valuation Gap For Growth Stocks

🕔11:03, 30.jul 2019

Growth stocks continue to grow, value stocks continue to gain value, if this is defined as a discount to the market. This cannot go on forever. But still may for a while.

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Marktvooruitzichten Voor Het Tweede Halfjaar Van 2019

Marktvooruitzichten Voor Het Tweede Halfjaar Van 2019

🕔17:28, 26.jul 2019

Wereldwijde groei zou moeten aantrekken als de handelsgeschillen niet verergeren. Dalende obligatierendementen wijzen op een omslag in de monetaire verwachtingen.

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Euro area: economic activity what did we learn from the latest industrial production data?

Euro area: economic activity what did we learn from the latest industrial production data?

🕔07:46, 20.jul 2019

After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations (0.2%). To avert negative IP growth over the whole of Q2, IP will need to

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Economic structures 20 years into the euro

Economic structures 20 years into the euro

🕔15:30, 13.jun 2019

Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area’s economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries.

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Eight Investment Themes for Global Growth

Eight Investment Themes for Global Growth

🕔11:02, 9.mei 2019

Over my nearly 30-year investment career, I’ve learned the value of scrutiny and reflection. That may seem counterintuitive in today’s market environment where information flows more continuously and rapidly than ever before. While the investment landscape today is unrecognizable from

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Eurozone with an exclamation mark in 1Q 19

Eurozone with an exclamation mark in 1Q 19

🕔04:03, 4.mei 2019

Despite massive disappointments in leading indicators and a flood of negative news, GDP growth in the Eurozone accelerated significantly to +0.4% q/q (previously +0.2% q/q) in 1Q19, based on a first flash estimate. 

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Buying time to keep growth on track

Buying time to keep growth on track

🕔13:02, 29.apr 2019

Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed

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Week Ahead

Week Ahead

🕔04:03, 27.apr 2019

EZ: growth still under pressure  Next week (April 30), the first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth for 1Q19 will be released. Given the continued disappointing development of leading indicators in the Eurozone, GDP data will also be in focus

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Green shoots in China

Green shoots in China

🕔11:02, 24.apr 2019

In our latest Long View report, we described how the current Chinese growth slowdown could impact Western developed economies and how to assess it against the backdrop of the long-term evolution of the Chinese economy.1 Since then, the Chinese government

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Searching for Growth in an Age of Disruption

Searching for Growth in an Age of Disruption

🕔13:03, 3.apr 2019

Fees are under pressure faster than market expected – is asset management no longer a growth sector? C-Suite must define a growth agenda to regain stock multiple. For alpha growth, look to China and Alts. Wholesale banks must restructure and

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Quality Eurozone Dividend Companies for the Late Cycle?

Quality Eurozone Dividend Companies for the Late Cycle?

🕔17:02, 18.mrt 2019

Strategy Espresso State Street Global Advisors forecasts that GDP growth in the eurozone will slow from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.6% through 2019.* Sure enough, economic data appears broadly positive and could continue to support earnings growth in equity markets. However,

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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