Weak economic data releases last week, including a decade-low US ISM manufacturing index print of 47.8 and a surprisingly large fall in the nonmanufacturing index (from 56.4 to 52.6), drove a mid-week decline of 3% in the S&P 500 and
For some time now, our relatively downbeat outlook for corporate earnings has been a key driver of our cautious stance on risk assets and equities. Our outlook reflects our macroeconomic view, which sees a world where global growth is running
September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to
US hiring and wage growth missed estimates in September. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the third time this year, especially as it comes after a slew of disappointing US data this
Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the
We expect a pickup in global growth in the next six to 12 months, as policy stimulus gradually filters through to the real economy. The Fed has cut interest rates, but its noncommittal view on the rate outlook suggests expectations
We have been through an extraordinary period of value factor underperformance over the last 18 months. The only comparable periods over the last 30 years are the Tech Bubble and the GFC. Historically, we would expect a very sharp reversal
Next week (September 23), a first flash estimate of the manufacturing sentiment of the Eurozone, Germany and France for September will be released. In August, Eurozone manufacturing sentiment brightened slightly for the first time in a long while, but remained
Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends
Following the latest escalation of tensions, we are downgrading our forecasts for growth. The trade wars are taking a toll on the outlook for the world economy. We now expect global growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next (previous
“Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.” As Scottish poet Andrew Lang reminds us, statistics should be read critically. The assembly of economic results is constrained by data limitations, distorted
More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that
While markets may not be “high risk” from a historical standpoint, investors have been shifting from optimistic to pessimistic on a regular basis. The rapid shifts in sentiment have been partly triggered by political issues, which are hard to predict,
Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007. Another prolonged period of underperformance for Book-to-Price and Earnings-to-Price happened between 1926 and 1941. This paper offers a theory for the connection between the two periods: they coincide with the central turning
Growth stocks continue to grow, value stocks continue to gain value, if this is defined as a discount to the market. This cannot go on forever. But still may for a while.
Wereldwijde groei zou moeten aantrekken als de handelsgeschillen niet verergeren. Dalende obligatierendementen wijzen op een omslag in de monetaire verwachtingen.
After two consecutive months of contraction, euro area industrial production (IP, excluding construction) rose by 0.9% month on month (m-o-m) in May, above consensus expectations (0.2%). To avert negative IP growth over the whole of Q2, IP will need to
Well-functioning economic structures are key for resilient and prospering euro area economies. The global financial and sovereign debt crises exposed the limited resilience of the euro area’s economic structures. Economic growth was masking underlying weaknesses in several euro area countries.
Over my nearly 30-year investment career, I’ve learned the value of scrutiny and reflection. That may seem counterintuitive in today’s market environment where information flows more continuously and rapidly than ever before. While the investment landscape today is unrecognizable from
Despite massive disappointments in leading indicators and a flood of negative news, GDP growth in the Eurozone accelerated significantly to +0.4% q/q (previously +0.2% q/q) in 1Q19, based on a first flash estimate.
Mario Draghi normally goes to great lengths to avoid surprising markets. But after the ECB’s March meeting, he shifted course. He adjusted forward guidance by saying key interest rates would remain at their present levels for longer than previously assumed
EZ: growth still under pressure Next week (April 30), the first flash estimate of Eurozone GDP growth for 1Q19 will be released. Given the continued disappointing development of leading indicators in the Eurozone, GDP data will also be in focus
In our latest Long View report, we described how the current Chinese growth slowdown could impact Western developed economies and how to assess it against the backdrop of the long-term evolution of the Chinese economy.1 Since then, the Chinese government
Fees are under pressure faster than market expected – is asset management no longer a growth sector? C-Suite must define a growth agenda to regain stock multiple. For alpha growth, look to China and Alts. Wholesale banks must restructure and
Strategy Espresso State Street Global Advisors forecasts that GDP growth in the eurozone will slow from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.6% through 2019.* Sure enough, economic data appears broadly positive and could continue to support earnings growth in equity markets. However,
The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).
Fresh #StarkieBlog! https://t.co/YZrzQpIlIQ
Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen
