The growth approach to income asks investors to look forwards, not backwards. It advocates embracing companies with bright futures – companies that are reinvesting appropriately in their business and paying lower but sustainable dividends. Our belief is that this approach
Yield curves may steepen as growth recovers. EM growth recovered during the second half of last year, but most countries’ gross domestic product (GDP) remains below 2019 levels. The recovery has been led by exports and industrial production, which were
Value stocks have rallied, but we see the potential for more upside. The rotation from growth to value stocks accelerated in the first quarter of 2021. However, with valuations arguably reaching elevated levels in some areas, questions have emerged about
Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The
Market weekly: Being open to an inclusive growth approach goes hand in hand with a focus on long-term performance and contributes to a better climate for doing business and investment. As investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and ESG research analyst Delphine
Companies focused on inclusive growth could stand to benefit in the long run. Investment specialist Ramon Esteruelas and environmental, social and governance (ESG) research analyst Delphine Riou explain why and how investors can target this theme. This theme fits in
First, we look at a recent publication from GMO named “The duration of value and growth”. Here they look at the comparison between bond duration and value and growth. The advancement of the coronavirus in the market has reinforced the idea that value stocks are ‘short duration’. This means that whenever bond yields rise …
The value stocks in the large‑cap Russell 1000 Index have outperformed their growth counterparts in recent months, but this near‑term regime shift does not dim our conviction in high‑quality companies that we believe can compound in value over the …
Over the last few weeks, we have seen a rise in bond yields alongside an outperformance in global value stocks relative to growth stocks. While we at GMO have certainly been happy to see some recovery in value stocks (and we are confident that this recovery has much further to run), the moves have only reinforced a narrative that has been gaining ground in …
Webinar – Inclusive Growth – paving the way forward BNP Paribas Asset Management is delighted to invite you to join us for the next session in our virtual event series. On 25 March, our experts will be focusing on the
We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …
The rotation towards value is a key theme of our 2021 investment outlook. As the US economy moves towards reopening and a return to normalcy, we expect an overly accommodative Federal Reserve (Fed) to let the economy ‘run hot’ in
At the end of the global financial crisis in 2009 we saw a sugar rush within markets, specifically for a couple of quarters from March that year where economy-sensitive stocks performed very well. This is being mimicked somewhat today. When
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Equities Global equities have advanced as investors have weighed the worsening coronavirus pandemic against hopes of a potential coronavirus vaccine. As sentiment rises, however, we believe it makes sense to be prudent in terms
Nu de presidentsverkiezingen in de VS naderen, wegen de markten de kansen af van een Democratische dan wel Republikeinse overwinning en wat de impact hiervan zal zijn op de aandelenmarkt. Sinds 1960 kent de S&P 500® Index in 80% van
Our key conclusions include the following: We believe there is a value premium driven by market participant behavior and that, despite all the headlines, value investing is not dead. But not all value is “cheap” (and not all growth is
Growth stocks have continued to outpace value stocks in the recent market volatility Quality Growth, a subset of the growth universe, has shown relative resilience in this selloff Experienced management teams, robust balance sheets, high return on capital and strong
Style rotations, where investors switch one type of investment style for another, are nothing new. At some point during most investment cycles different styles – such as growth, quality and value – will outperform at different points as investors rotate
Webinar – New Economy Capital Group New Economy – designed to capture growth and innovation Capital Group’s New Economy strategy, launched in 1983, was designed to capture growth by investing in companies that can benefit from innovation, exploit new technologies
Fixed Income Perspectives The trajectory of global growth turned downward as governments scrambled to deal with the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The …
The Covid-19 pandemic remains the only real theme driving markets, as investors look for clues as to what the ultimate impact of the crisis will be on economic growth, industrial sectors and asset prices. The jury is still out, with
Webinar – Emerging market debt: How will emerging market debt emerge from this crisis? With COVID-19 impacting markets and economies globally, EM debt is set to be impacted from the increased volatility. Join us to hear from Kirstie Spence, fixed
The swift and intense economic volatility caused by the Covid-19 crisis has left investors with something of a blind spot. Traditional business cycle analyses have no inputs for a global pandemic, making it hard to judge how to position portfolios
Webinar – Value’s Death may be Greatly Exaggerated Live Webinar – Value investing has been a painful experience for investors over the last decade. Today, the spread between growth and value is at historical highs. Is this time different? Is value
What is a sentiment crash? should i be concerned? Changes in stock prices are driven by new information, primarily through changes in fundamentals, and/or multiple expansion (e.g., changes in a firm’s the price-to-forward earnings ratio over a specified time period).
Key views Growth: We revise up China real GDP growth forecast to 6.1% YoY in 2020 vs. 5.9% YoY previously considering potential de-escalation of China-US trade tensions and more decisive counter-cyclical efforts in China. Inflation: The potential “deal” between
QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group Global growth in 2019 was the weakest in a decade, weighed down by an escalation of the US-China trade war, which hit manufacturing and export sectors hard. Consumer sectors, propped up by strong labor markets
Market Insights In 2019, the U.S. stock market continued its streak of outperforming, rising by more than 31% versus 21% for the rest of the world, as measured by the S&P 500 Index and the MSCI All Country World ex-US Index
Equity markets in 2020: Watch out for a value rotation Indicators derived from monthly surveys of senior executives at selected companies that help in identifying economic trends. Growth investment style – It aims at investing in the growth potential of a
Major themes driving our views Slower global growth remains a concern Growth momentum is negative, but the consumer remains resilient. Trade disputes are only a symptom of broader, potentially longer-term, tension between the United States and China. With profit margins
Commentary Despite slowing growth and Britain’s ongoing struggles to map an exit from the E.U., central bank stimulus and falling yields helped European equities to mark their best year since 2009. The benchmark S&P Europe 350 rose 6% in the
Economic growth set to slow further: from 1.7% in 2019 to just under 1% in 2020 The Dutch economy managed to continue growing at a stable pace in the first three quarters of 2019. Gross domestic product (GDP) achieved growth
Investors’ Outlook 2020 Dear readers, the year 2020 is presenting many challenges for inves- tors. On the macroeconomic front, global growth is likely to slow further as trade tensions and higher tariffs are increasingly weighing on the economy. On the
Putnam – Capital Markets Outlook As we enter the final quarter of the decade, the signals of late cycle behavior continue to grow louder. But, as the old trader adage says, “nobody rings a sell at the top.” We do not believe this
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson reached a deal with the EU on Brexit. The deal takes the ‘backstop’ out of the equation, but puts an economic border in the Irish Sea. At the time of writing European leaders still have
Weak economic data releases last week, including a decade-low US ISM manufacturing index print of 47.8 and a surprisingly large fall in the nonmanufacturing index (from 56.4 to 52.6), drove a mid-week decline of 3% in the S&P 500 and
For some time now, our relatively downbeat outlook for corporate earnings has been a key driver of our cautious stance on risk assets and equities. Our outlook reflects our macroeconomic view, which sees a world where global growth is running
September Eurozone PMIs further challenged the optimism in hard data mounting the uncertainty underlying the economy. As a matter of fact, the newly released data confirmed the softening momentum of the Eurozone manufacturing and service sectors. Risks remain tilted to
US hiring and wage growth missed estimates in September. This puts more pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to cut interest rates for the third time this year, especially as it comes after a slew of disappointing US data this
Last week saw important US economic data emerge. The continued weakening in the manufacturing ISM index reflected ongoing global softness, which was likely exacerbated by the General Motors strike that has entered its fourth week. However, the drop in the
We expect a pickup in global growth in the next six to 12 months, as policy stimulus gradually filters through to the real economy. The Fed has cut interest rates, but its noncommittal view on the rate outlook suggests expectations
We have been through an extraordinary period of value factor underperformance over the last 18 months. The only comparable periods over the last 30 years are the Tech Bubble and the GFC. Historically, we would expect a very sharp reversal
Next week (September 23), a first flash estimate of the manufacturing sentiment of the Eurozone, Germany and France for September will be released. In August, Eurozone manufacturing sentiment brightened slightly for the first time in a long while, but remained
Growth has fallen in the U.S., while firm concentration and profits have risen. Meanwhile, labor’s share of national income is down, mostly due to the rising market share of low labor share firms. We propose a theory for these trends
Following the latest escalation of tensions, we are downgrading our forecasts for growth. The trade wars are taking a toll on the outlook for the world economy. We now expect global growth of 2.6% this year and 2.4% next (previous
“Politicians use statistics in the same way that a drunk uses lamp posts—for support rather than illumination.” As Scottish poet Andrew Lang reminds us, statistics should be read critically. The assembly of economic results is constrained by data limitations, distorted
More twists and turns in the US-China trade war It has not been a big surprise to us that the US would become more protectionist and mercantilist under a Trump presidency. It also has not been a big surprise that
While markets may not be “high risk” from a historical standpoint, investors have been shifting from optimistic to pessimistic on a regular basis. The rapid shifts in sentiment have been partly triggered by political issues, which are hard to predict,
Value has underperformed since the beginning of 2007. Another prolonged period of underperformance for Book-to-Price and Earnings-to-Price happened between 1926 and 1941. This paper offers a theory for the connection between the two periods: they coincide with the central turning
Growth stocks continue to grow, value stocks continue to gain value, if this is defined as a discount to the market. This cannot go on forever. But still may for a while.
