Fees are under pressure faster than market expected – is asset management no longer a growth sector? C-Suite must define a growth agenda to regain stock multiple. For alpha growth, look to China and Alts. Wholesale banks must restructure and
Strategy Espresso State Street Global Advisors forecasts that GDP growth in the eurozone will slow from 1.9% in 2018 to 1.6% through 2019.* Sure enough, economic data appears broadly positive and could continue to support earnings growth in equity markets. However,
Research & Strategy Insights US macro indicators (fourth quarter GDP and business surveys) are holding up but “cross currents” have justified a US Federal Reserve pause Eurozone activity indicators remain bleak and we have downgraded our 2019 growth forecast to
Monthly Investment Strategy Exploring the Risk Scenario of No Monetary Normalisation
Week Ahead The economic slowdown in the euro zone in the second half of 2018 was significantly stronger than originally expected and lowered the starting position for 2019. This makes it unlikely that the economy will have gained enough momentum
Invesco Investment Insights Market-structure improvements, better access and development of the asset-management sector to make investing in China A-shares easier. Active strategies, including quantitative investing, in the A-share market can help enhance returns, while local experts can advise on how
2019 Investment Outlook In this investment outlook, we present our short-term outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) for our SRI funds is based on these short-term expectations. With our TAA we exploit short-term
Macro and Market Perspectives We see global growth slowing as the expansion enters its final stage. The slowdown comes as the US economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. It is driven by elevated uncertainty around policy plans, the
Earnings season in full swing The IMF revised its growth forecasts for 2019 lower, primarily because of softer business conditions in the second half of 2018, US-China trade tensions and a sharper fall in China’s growth which is now seen
In this letter, I address the most common questions that we field at OSAM by discussing: 2018 performance Whether the market looks attractive as of January 2019 Factor performance during 2018 (which started fine and ended very badly) Our vision
On the fiscal front, lower oil prices turned current account surpluses into deficits which will need to be addressed by tax revenue measures and a reduction in spending on public wages and subsidies. In terms of structural adjustments, these countries
Macro and Market Perspectives We see global growth slowing as the expansion enters its final stage. The slowdown comes as the US economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. It is driven by elevated uncertainty around policy plans, the
Trade war and Federal Reserve weigh on global economy The global economic environment has deteriorated noticeably in the 2nd half of 2018. In our opinion the main reasons for this are the geopolitical agenda of the Trump administration (e.g. the
Investment Strategy Insights While trade frictions attracted the most attention, the primary and outsize drag on global growth in 2018 was the self-imposed slowdown China began in mid-2017. Intended as a gentle cooling, the deleveraging and derisking program overshot; China’s
2019 Investment Outlook In this investment outlook, we present our short-term outlook for the global economy and financial markets. The tactical asset allocation (TAA) for our SRI funds is based on these short-term expectations. With our TAA we exploit short-term
We expect global growth to slow from 3.8% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019, with risks skewed to the downside reflecting continued uncertainty around trade disputes, even after the US mid-term elections (see Figure 1). Amid one of the longest
Combining value and quality in this new market phase “In a maturing phase of the cycle, we think that a focus on quality companies that are able to deliver sustainable earnings growth in the future and that are trading at
Combining value and quality in this new market phase “In a maturing phase of the cycle, we think that a focus on quality companies that are able to deliver sustainable earnings growth in the future and that are trading at
Our latest Global Outlook is being released at a challenging time for investors. Global growth has been weaker than anticipated so far this year, especially outside of the US. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is continuing to withdraw policy support amid
Our latest Global Outlook is being released at a challenging time for investors. Global growth has been weaker than anticipated so far this year, especially outside of the US. The Federal Reserve (Fed) is continuing to withdraw policy support amid
PricePoint Growth and value cycles tend to persist for long periods of time, and the growth style of equity investing has outperformed the value style since the 2008 global financial crisis—its longest outperformance streak on record. Relative valuations, sector composition,
Global Macro Outlook China is a critical engine of global growth. Concerns about trade tensions with the US and elevated domestic debt levels are real, yet we see the near-term outlook as resilient. The composition of growth in China is
Perspective The year began with a continuation of 2017’s ‘risk-on’ market environment within European equities. This environment was not conducive to my quality at an attractive price investment style and consequently the funds underperformed in January, not helped by some
UBS House View One trend in global data over the past month has been a return of US economic exceptionalism. The Citi Economic Surprise Index is now running at minus 27 globally, and plus 10 for the US. As it
It has been a miserable decade for the value style of investing, whose performance has languished behind its rival growth style. The recent low growth and low interest rate environment is largely to blame, as this has favoured growth stocks.
