Including: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Short-Term Tactical Outlook This report presents Cliffwater recommendations for asset class return and risk (standard deviation) assumptions, intended for asset allocation studies that set long-term portfolio asset class targets. While these forward-looking or “expected” asset
Uncertainty still surrounds the Ukraine war and its economic fallout The world's major economies went into the current crisis with fairly sound fundamentals, positive growth and low unemployment. Several were still enjoying the boost from withdrawing social distancing measures introduced
Alts in aggregate Real estate Infrastructure Private Markets Hedge funds
How CTAs work and what they can do in the age of low interest rates Commodity Trading Advisor (CTA) strategies are an investment success story. They have attracted large inflows of assets, drawn in by their ability to generate returns
Global equity markets edged down during 2021’s third quarter (Q3). Early in the period, strong corporate earnings in several parts of the world, full US regulatory approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, and the Chinese central bank’s liquidity-boosting measures aided markets.
A gradual transition toward a more 'normal' mid-cycle… We think global growth has peaked but will remain above average, boosted by broadening consumption and surging capex. A return to more 'normal' has already started but will likely take more time
The primary focus of this analysis is a contemporary evaluation of alternative investments represented by CTAs, Risk Premia, and Hedge Funds. We use Risk Premia as a proxy for passive/semi-passive investments in alternative strategies and contrast that with the active
Macro managers' returns are positive year-to-date but are still lagging their benchmarks. Their alpha was hit twice by the end of March and June. Managers adequately positioned early this year on rising yields and tapering through bond shorts and steepeners.
Trading conditions in China have severely deteriorated. After reaching their peak by mid-February, stocks lost earlier gains in March, on evidence of a plateauing economy and as stretched investors' positioning unwounded. Chinese markets were then stuck in a volatile trading
Since March and April tapering and inflation concerns eased up, U.S. value stocks have regained their lost ground and are outperforming growth stocks by 40% since the vaccine announcement late 2020. How long the value rally will last is yet
Event-Driven strategies saw exciting developments in recent quarters, in a context where global M&A volumes saw the strongest start to the year ever. Global M&A volumes, close to USD 1.5 trillion year-to-date, were fueled by a flurry of U.S. acquisitions
De vaccinatieprogramma’s komen wereldwijd op snelheid en ook de economische vooruitzichten worden beter, ondersteund door extra fiscale stimuleringsmaatregelen. Daarom blijven we overwogen in aandelen, met een voorkeur voor landen en sectoren die het meest …
What a year 2020 was in markets. From the Corona Crash in March to VIX highs in the 80s, to tech stocks doubling and tripling from those lows. From retail traders driving the market, to stimulus checks holding the market
Before researching whether we can use this outperformance to strengthen our Alternative Beta strategy, we first assessed whether the differences in "performance might result from composition biases between the Flash and Final update."
Amid the sound and fury of renewed Covid-19 lockdowns across Europe, global equities took a plunge at the end of October, bringing the MSCI World down -3% for the full month. Bonds did not provide much protection, as fiscal stimulus
#39 September is a busy month for webinar-watchers! A lot of subjects are discussed, for example “Modern Monetary Theory” or “Small Caps“. A lot of research was posted last week and in this blogpost we will highlight a few we
The current challenging market environment suggests a greater need than ever for alternatives. Hedge funds, which target differentiated, positive absolute returns, provide clear potential benefits. However, institutional investors have …
Narratives, US election and CTAs The US presidential election is less than two months away. As usual, many observers label this election as perhaps the most important one ever. This time, it might very well be true. Many observers are
Alternatives AUM exceeds $10tn milestone amid challenging market conditions The alternatives industry has just set a new record: global assets under management (AUM) have surged to $10.31tn. We’re now well on our way to meeting Preqin’s 2018 forecast of $14tn
#34 The holidays are coming to an end and you might have to catch up on research. Hereby a quick overview of the best read research on OpinioPro this last week. A variety of topics is addressed – you can
Uncommon truths What role can alternative assets play in our model asset allocation framework? We look at real estate, commodities, private equity, hedge funds, diamonds and fine wines. We think some are core assets, others tactical while some have no
BIS Bulletin Key takeaways For a two-week period in mid-March 2020, government bond markets experienced uncharacteristic turbulence, sometimes selling off sharply in risk-off episodes when they would normally attract safe haven flows. Evidence in the US Treasury market points to
Q2 2020 Outlook: Summary In our view, pricing dislocations between companies, industries, regions and asset classes due to the impact of COVID-19 and corresponding price adjustments offer abundant opportunities for select hedged strategies. The length and depth of both the
Key Insights Many “risky assets” ended 2019 near or above all-time highs, but we continue to caution investors not to become complacent. While the prospect of modest global economic growth in 2020 exists, we see risks in the credit cycle
Risk assets have largely shrugged off recent headwinds on the back of robust macro and corporate dynamics in the U.S. The Q4-2019 earnings season delivered better than expected outcomes especially in the Technology sector. Meanwhile, labor market conditions remain buoyant
An evaluation of Trendfollowing in managed futures over the past three decades The performance of managed futures,1 particularly trendfollowing strategies (“Trendfollowing”), has been mixed in recent years. Although returns in the industry have been strong year to date, the performance
ONE-DIMENSIONAL. FLAT. SILOED. GENERIC A common criticism of alternatives investment guidance is that it lacks the depth, breadth and context to have a meaningful impact on broader portfolio design and implementation. In this, our second annual Alternatives Outlook, with an
Uncertainty remains but we still expect a transitory economic impact from the Coronavirus outbreak. In a best- case scenario, authorities measures could help reverse the trend within weeks, with containment by the end of Q1. In a base-case scenario, the
The year that has just started will challenge investors’ expectations, just as 2019 eventually contradicted the bearish mood that prevailed one year ago. For the time being, risk appetite remains strong and we believe it is unlikely to be derailed
Artificial intelligence and machine learning are prevalent in all aspects of everyday life and play an ever-increasing role in investing. Machine learning investment strategies aim to deliver persistent, uncorrelated alpha streams while adapting to changes in market conditions—without the human
2019 Global Alternative Fund Survey The alternative asset management industry must pivot strategies to focus on the future and make real-time adjustments that control that path.
Soft manufacturing surveys are bottoming out, pointing to a turn in hard data. Monetary accommodation and less uncertainty on most trade fronts have been key contributors to this inflection, as well as front-loading ahead of the September tariffs. A modest
Should alternative portfolios favor smaller, medium, or larger hedge funds? The choice might not be as obvious as before and may be more dependent on the stage of the business cycle. For many years, small hedge funds have steadily outperformed
Investors’ three main arguments for investing with CTAs are: Absolute Returns Since the turn of the millennium, CTAs (Société Générale CTA Index) have performed in line with global equities (MSCI World Total Return Gross) but at a significantly lower volatility. Diversification CTAs’ return stream stems from
Semi-Annual Futures Rankings What’s the BEST managed futures program? That’s a tricky one. Do you mean: Best last year? Best for all time? Best risk-adjusted return? Best in terms of lowest drawdowns? We can all see which programs logged the
Survivorship bias, the predisposition to evaluate a data set by focusing on the “survivors” rather than also examining the record of non-survivors, is important to understand for hedge fund peer groups, which tend to have a relatively large number of
The findings from this year’s survey are based not only on what is current practice between hedge funds and investors, but also potential future developments and how these could be best implemented. Below are the six key takeaways that emerged
Liquid alternatives (typically regulated by the Investment Company Act of 1940) and hedge funds (often lightly regulated legal structures) are public and private vehicles that investors use to access a variety of alternative investment strategies. To compare and contrast them,
This report provides an overview of the global crypto hedge fund landscape and offers insights into quantitative elements such as liquidity terms and performance, as well as qualitative aspects such as best practice with respect to custody and governance. By
Investors once again showed their dissatisfaction with underperforming products with elevated redemptions in March 2019. The outflows were enough to push Q1 into negative territory, which also made Q1 2019 the fourth consecutive quarter of redemptions for the industry. Despite
Conviction • Concentration • Consensus • Crowdedness The Novus 4C Indices track important hedge fund factors through public equities. The data underlying index creation is sourced from an aggregate hedge fund portfolio called the Novus Hedge Fund Universe (HFU). HFU is
Hedge funds were once praised for extracting superior performance relative to traditional asset managers. More recently, however, we have witnessed a growing tide of negative sentiment directed at them, driven by a lengthy period of lacklustre hedge fund returns coupled
The weekly brief The market rebound started at end of December has taken place amid an easing of trade tensions and hopes that a no-deal Brexit will be avoided. A softer stance from major central banks has also been supportive.
The weekly Brief 2018 ended with investors hesitating between several scenarios, which led to widely different performance patterns. Summarized below, none can fully explain alone recent prices actions. We do not expect a recession, rather we anticipate a global growth
The NOVUS 4C Indices Hedge funds express conviction in companies they hold by sizing them up in their portfolios. Does hedge fund conviction play a role in the future performance of stocks? Evidence shows that it does. If a stock
The Weekly Brief The confirmation of a changing Federal Reserve System’s ("Fed”) tone and hopes for a truce in the U.S. trade standoff both supported risky assets this week. Rates have been trending down since mid-November, in sync with a
In our view, the ongoing rise in global interest rates plus signs of divergent economic and earnings growth cycles should create opportunities for the 4th quarter. Our top strategy convictions: Relative Value, Event Driven – Merger Arb, Discretionary Macro
Each quarter, our research team reviews investment firms that have filed a 13F with the SEC for the first time and selects firms to include in the Novus Hedge Fund Universe “HFU.” The HFU is a composite portfolio of over
Opalesque Round Table Co-Investments are equity, debt or other exposures offered by fund managers to their investors directly in the portfolio companies, project or trade in which they invest. They can offer access to high-conviction ideas and differentiated return streams
The Weekly brief While hedge fund performance and alpha were honorable until the summer, our analysis suggests that they erased about 2.5% of alpha since June, with no turn in sight yet in September.
