Macro / government bonds All three major central banks making decisions last week have demonstrated that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as outweighing the need to address inflation pressure.
1. High yield is a growth sensitive asset class: The high-yield market has historically produced positive results over a full cycle, but it tends to do particularly well during the recovery phase of the business cycle as default rates fall,
The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened and spread sectors rallied strongly last week, as fears over the COVID-19 Omicron variant eased and inflation data came in-line with expectations. The Federal Reserve holds its last meeting of 2021 on Wednesday, where
Positive but slower global growth is meeting with greater inflation pressures The global economy maintained its Growth potential is on track to outpace pre-pandemic times positive overall trajectory, though economic indicators grew more mixed. Returns across fixed income were mostly
US FIXED INCOME 2022 OUTLOOK That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal
Nu het wanbetalingspercentage aan beide kanten van de Atlantische Oceaan uitzonderlijk laag is, zouden beleggers terecht kunnen denken dat de markt voor distressed kredieten zeer gematigd is. Maar er zijn strategieën die zelfs in de huidige omgeving kansen kunnen vinden
CDS indices outperformed bonds and behaved better in times of stress thanks to better liquidity High-yield CDS indices have outperformed the high-yield bond market over the long term regardless of the interest rate exposure, as illustrated in Figure 3. This
Ongekende monetaire stimulansen zorgen voor sterk herstel In het eerste kwartaal van 2020 werden de financiële markten wereldwijd opgeschrikt door de escalatie van de corona-uitbraak tot pandemie. Zorgen over de economische impact van deze pandemie leidden tot sterk dalende koersen
Strategy Summary The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a
In Credit AUGUST 2021 As we start a new month, we can reflect on another better week and month for core government bonds. US yields fell by around 25bps in July. The fall was led by declining real yields, which
Various Push-Pull Factors Argue for a Watchful Investment Approach: The U.S. and global high-yield markets experienced a strong second quarter. Year-over-year trends in corporate fundamentals based on first-quarter earnings released in the …
Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since
Downside risk management is crucial. Volatility and low yields are likely to persist over the next few years as the global economy recovers from the shock of the coronavirus. Navigating this environment will be difficult, particularly as returns from equities
Volatility in interest rates year-to-date has unevenly impacted credit markets. Investment grade credit (IG) weakened in sympathy with sovereign yields, especially in high quality and long duration paper. IG bonds were down -3.6% in the U.S. year-to-date, and -0.5% in
Investors can still find value in the European high-yield bond market even after a more than volatile 2020 in which risk premiums fell. While the starting yield may now look much less attractive, high-yield bonds continue to …
OpinioPro readers found the BNP Paribas AM article the most interesting this week. The article discusses how the switch of many economies ‘’from a depletive to a sustainable model created a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water’’. The three main water-related investing …
After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year. While the second Covid-19 wave, and the new variant, are weighing on recovery, once vaccinations bring the virus under control a degree of normality …
Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European
Webinar – U.S. High Yield Strategy Update Kevin Loome, CFA®, portfolio manager of the U.S. High Yield Bond Strategy and Gregor Dannacher, CFA®, portfolio specialist, share insights on how they are responding to these rapidly changing markets and uncovering new
#HighYield On the 4th of January, Columbia Threadneedle Investments published a new edition of their monthly report “In Credit”, this time titled as: “Here we go again”. Speaking about High Yield, Columbia Threadneedle states that technical values remain positive
Credit markets weathered a turbulent year in 2020 as the Covid-19 outbreak resulted in economic shutdowns, plummeting growth and volatile markets. Against this backdrop, fundamentals deteriorated, downgrades skyrocketed and default activity increased. After one of the quickest bear markets in
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Credit analysis can reveal value in bank loans, high yield bonds High yield bonds and bank loans (or leveraged loans) represent two forms of noninvestment‑grade credit exposure. Both sectors have various strengths and risks
Investment Insights The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Markets Our portfolio managers see selective potential in a range of asset classes. Even for those of us who saw reasons for hope this past spring, the market’s resilience in the face of the
"We still like high yield for income. On a tactical horizon, we strongly prefer high yield for its income and more room for spread tightening. We are neutral on IG and underweight emerging market debt."
T. Rowe Price Insights on Fixed Income Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the U.S. high yield bond market in the
Webinar – High Yield Valuation Educational Webinar 1 HY: fundamentals and valuations 2 Why GHYS is uniquely positioned for the future Programme 09.00 AM High Yield: Fundamentals and current valuations Bernard McGrath / Senior Fixed Income Specialist; UBP How expensive
“Global default rates are rising and likely to continue into 2021. But we think the full impact may be muted by the significant fiscal and monetary intervention seen from governments and central banks.”
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Riskier, less liquid securities can bring substantial benefits. When seeking to generate steady bond income during turbulent times, a little flexibility can go a long way. The freedom to invest in a wide
Credit Outlook Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This
European Gazette Global debt was at an unprecedented level before Covid-19. With the subsequent policy response injecting liquidity into most parts of the world economy, the debt predicament is set for a worse path. We explore the implications for sovereigns,
European Gazette / Summer 2020 As we started Q4 in 2019, we saw the economic cycle coming to an end. We were slightly perturbed that markets wanted to be quite bullish as Q3 numbers showed firms meeting and beating expectations.
Following a historic plunge in Q1, US high-yield corporate bonds delivered strong gains in Q2. The intervention of governments and central banks provided unprecedented support for global financial markets and bolstered investors’ appetite for risk. The market showed technical strength
High-yield bonds often deliver strong returns following a period of crisis – why is that and will it happen in the wake of COVID-19? Due to a higher-risk nature of its constituents (including the greater risk of default), the high-yield
U.S. Treasury yields ended the week modestly lower, led by longer maturities. Markets appeared focused on escalating coronavirus concerns, despite generally stronger U.S. economic data. Rising U.S. virus cases are stoking fears of another lock down and associated slowing in economic
In Credit It was a week of data releases and an opportunity to get a glimpse as to whether an economic recovery is underway. The evidence would so far suggest that this …
Driving optimism in June have been a variety of better-than-anticipated economic reports. Most notably, nonfarm employment rose by 2.5 million, leading to a downtick in the unemployment rate. ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys each moved up in May. And most
KEY INSIGHTS ESG factors are incorporated into the research process, serving as an important input into decision‑making. The growing importance of ESG in Europe is having a trickle‑down effect on companies. Seeing a greater awareness of ESG among high yield companies,
Executive Summary The coronavirus crisis has understandably caused a great deal of unrest on the financial markets. This article examines the opportunities and threats at times when share prices have fallen sharply in a short period of time, spreads have
Strategy update The volatility of recent months pushed credit spreads well wide of historic norms, peaking around mid-march at levels last seen during the 2008/2009 Credit Crisis. In the face of this market turmoil, the broad US high yield market
The Big Picture Is this a buying opportunity or the half-way stage in a larger slump? The truth is we don’t know, so we have constructed a range of scenarios that see the S&P 500 anywhere between 1400 and 3000 in 12
While much uncertainty remains, one aspect of the COVID-19 market shock is clear: The Fed will not stand in the way of the economic recovery. By the end of March, the COVID-19 global pandemic had a deep and profound effect on virtually
Global HY markets sold off aggressively between February and March in response to the COVID-19 outbreak, the oil price war and the liquidity freeze in some markets. An analysis of past peak-and-trough episodes in the US HY market shows that
A case of “darkest before dawn?” March was a rollercoaster ride for European high yield investors. The market had fallen 20% by the middle of the month, and had recovered to be down 15% since the start of the year
Webinar – High Yield Bonds High Yield Bonds – “Sorting the wheat from the chaff” During the global financial crisis in 2008 liquidity was directed to support the financial system. With the COVID-19 virus this liquidity is directed to support
Cycle, Further, Interrupted. The COVID-19 virus has stalled the mini-cycle rebound and made a global recession likely. While the duration of the virus pandemic is unpredictable, policy stimulus, pent-up demand and a lack of major imbalances argue for a solid
Time for a rethink
Qontigo Applied Research White Paper In a world where some investors pay the government for the privilege of lending it money—and where even fixed income securities with the lowest investment-grade credit ratings yield barely more than 1% per annum—the “hunt
Webinar – Global Fixed Income markets update The ECB surprised markets this morning by announcing an emergency EUR 750 billion lifeline to mitigate the COVID19’s economic repercussions and support the European economy. Though sizeable, investors are left to wonder whether
Update: Yield-Duration Heatmap – 09/03/20 vs. 02/03/20
