While caution is warranted, we think many high yield companies are well-positioned to navigate a downturn given the solid fundamental starting point. In recent years, high yield companies diligently improved their balance sheets, resulting …
Challenging economic conditions are setting the stage for an interesting year ahead in the high yield market. As the economy slows and the cycle matures, we believe caution is warranted. However, we expect dislocations to expose intriguing buying opportunities and
As the world faces challenges from weakening growth, inflation and policy tightening, the good news for European High Yield investors is that the underlying strength in the asset class has been on an improving trajectory over the last two decades.
Continued high yield selloffs throughout September and October have put increasing pressure on credit investors. Spreads have blown out to around to 650 bps, which gives an implied default rate 8.6% at the time of writing (Figure 1), approaching the
KEY POINTS: Forecasted high-yield default rates are up slightly since our April 2022 assessment. A deteriorating macroeconomic outlook and geopolitical risks are driving the forecast. Default rates remain well below long-term default rates.
High yield bonds are frequently misunderstood, with an undeserved reputation for being high risk. We view them as a hybrid asset class, sitting between equity and traditional debt markets. In our view, high yield bonds exhibit compelling …
Companies are facing a number of macro headwinds and ongoing margin pressures. While this environment can be challenging, we think many high yield companies are wellpositioned to navigate an economic slowdown given low leverage, healthy balance sheets and few near-term
Summary Hard currency emerging market debt (EMD): – Valuations vary: 1. The spreads of investment grade (IG) sovereign and IG corporate indices are close to their historical medians. High yield (HY) corporate index spreads have inched slightly above the historical
For most risk assets, total return is achieved predominantly via capital price return, but not in high yield. Over long-term periods, income tends to drive the bulk of the total return for high yield bonds. In fact, over 100% of
Moderating global growth as policymakers grapple with persistent inflation Global economic growth looks likely to continue in 2022, albeit at a more modest pace. The COVID-19 pandemic does, however, add uncertainty to the outlook, as evidenced by the recent emergence
High yield bonds have become a mainstream asset class for many institutional investors. Historic returns are impressive, particularly on risk-adjusted measures, and an allocation to high yield bonds can add value to an overall portfolio. For defined contribution (DC) pension
Heading into 2022, the high yield bond market was a tale of two halves. On one hand, solid company fundamentals, balanced technicals and the ongoing economic recovery painted a supportive backdrop. On the other, valuations were historically rich, with tight
1. High yield is a growth sensitive asset class: The high-yield market has historically produced positive results over a full cycle, but it tends to do particularly well during the recovery phase of the business cycle as default rates fall,
Fixed Income Perspectives Less than two months into the new year, global central bank policy has turned more hawkish. The Bank of England hiked rates 25 basis points (bps) in early February, while the European Central Bank announced it would
Fixed Income Perspectives Bond Market Outlook Global Rates: Yields to edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar to remain range-bound as market balances global Covid concerns, hawkish central bank policies Investment Grade:
After a challenging 2020, the high yield market saw rapid fundamental improvement in 2021 and it staged an unprecedented recovery. As we enter 2022 and provided the economic recovery continues, we maintain a reasonably positive outlook on the high yield
Macro / government bonds All three major central banks making decisions last week have demonstrated that they no longer regard the downside risks to economic activity over the coming months as outweighing the need to address inflation pressure.
The U.S. Treasury yield curve steepened and spread sectors rallied strongly last week, as fears over the COVID-19 Omicron variant eased and inflation data came in-line with expectations. The Federal Reserve holds its last meeting of 2021 on Wednesday, where
Positive but slower global growth is meeting with greater inflation pressures The global economy maintained its Growth potential is on track to outpace pre-pandemic times positive overall trajectory, though economic indicators grew more mixed. Returns across fixed income were mostly
US FIXED INCOME 2022 OUTLOOK That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal
Nu het wanbetalingspercentage aan beide kanten van de Atlantische Oceaan uitzonderlijk laag is, zouden beleggers terecht kunnen denken dat de markt voor distressed kredieten zeer gematigd is. Maar er zijn strategieën die zelfs in de huidige omgeving kansen kunnen vinden
CDS indices outperformed bonds and behaved better in times of stress thanks to better liquidity High-yield CDS indices have outperformed the high-yield bond market over the long term regardless of the interest rate exposure, as illustrated in Figure 3. This
Ongekende monetaire stimulansen zorgen voor sterk herstel In het eerste kwartaal van 2020 werden de financiële markten wereldwijd opgeschrikt door de escalatie van de corona-uitbraak tot pandemie. Zorgen over de economische impact van deze pandemie leidden tot sterk dalende koersen
Strategy Summary The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a
In Credit AUGUST 2021 As we start a new month, we can reflect on another better week and month for core government bonds. US yields fell by around 25bps in July. The fall was led by declining real yields, which
Various Push-Pull Factors Argue for a Watchful Investment Approach: The U.S. and global high-yield markets experienced a strong second quarter. Year-over-year trends in corporate fundamentals based on first-quarter earnings released in the …
Investors can choose between two different types of instruments when investing in the corporate high-yield market: traditional high-yield bonds and high-yield CDS indices. In this white paper, we shall look at the performances of the global high-yield bond market since
Downside risk management is crucial. Volatility and low yields are likely to persist over the next few years as the global economy recovers from the shock of the coronavirus. Navigating this environment will be difficult, particularly as returns from equities
Volatility in interest rates year-to-date has unevenly impacted credit markets. Investment grade credit (IG) weakened in sympathy with sovereign yields, especially in high quality and long duration paper. IG bonds were down -3.6% in the U.S. year-to-date, and -0.5% in
Investors can still find value in the European high-yield bond market even after a more than volatile 2020 in which risk premiums fell. While the starting yield may now look much less attractive, high-yield bonds continue to …
OpinioPro readers found the BNP Paribas AM article the most interesting this week. The article discusses how the switch of many economies ‘’from a depletive to a sustainable model created a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water’’. The three main water-related investing …
After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year. While the second Covid-19 wave, and the new variant, are weighing on recovery, once vaccinations bring the virus under control a degree of normality …
Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European
#HighYield On the 4th of January, Columbia Threadneedle Investments published a new edition of their monthly report “In Credit”, this time titled as: “Here we go again”. Speaking about High Yield, Columbia Threadneedle states that technical values remain positive
Webinar – U.S. High Yield Strategy Update Kevin Loome, CFA®, portfolio manager of the U.S. High Yield Bond Strategy and Gregor Dannacher, CFA®, portfolio specialist, share insights on how they are responding to these rapidly changing markets and uncovering new
Credit markets weathered a turbulent year in 2020 as the Covid-19 outbreak resulted in economic shutdowns, plummeting growth and volatile markets. Against this backdrop, fundamentals deteriorated, downgrades skyrocketed and default activity increased. After one of the quickest bear markets in
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Credit analysis can reveal value in bank loans, high yield bonds High yield bonds and bank loans (or leveraged loans) represent two forms of noninvestment‑grade credit exposure. Both sectors have various strengths and risks
Investment Insights The US election results and the announcement of a potential COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer have been pivotal events in markets, initially providing a substantial boost to risk assets. Mixed economic data and a rapidly rising rate of coronavirus
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Markets Our portfolio managers see selective potential in a range of asset classes. Even for those of us who saw reasons for hope this past spring, the market’s resilience in the face of the
"We still like high yield for income. On a tactical horizon, we strongly prefer high yield for its income and more room for spread tightening. We are neutral on IG and underweight emerging market debt."
T. Rowe Price Insights on Fixed Income Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the U.S. high yield bond market in the
“Global default rates are rising and likely to continue into 2021. But we think the full impact may be muted by the significant fiscal and monetary intervention seen from governments and central banks.”
Webinar – High Yield Valuation Educational Webinar 1 HY: fundamentals and valuations 2 Why GHYS is uniquely positioned for the future Programme 09.00 AM High Yield: Fundamentals and current valuations Bernard McGrath / Senior Fixed Income Specialist; UBP How expensive
T. Rowe Price Insights on Global Fixed Income Riskier, less liquid securities can bring substantial benefits. When seeking to generate steady bond income during turbulent times, a little flexibility can go a long way. The freedom to invest in a wide
Credit Outlook Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This
European Gazette Global debt was at an unprecedented level before Covid-19. With the subsequent policy response injecting liquidity into most parts of the world economy, the debt predicament is set for a worse path. We explore the implications for sovereigns,
European Gazette / Summer 2020 As we started Q4 in 2019, we saw the economic cycle coming to an end. We were slightly perturbed that markets wanted to be quite bullish as Q3 numbers showed firms meeting and beating expectations.
Following a historic plunge in Q1, US high-yield corporate bonds delivered strong gains in Q2. The intervention of governments and central banks provided unprecedented support for global financial markets and bolstered investors’ appetite for risk. The market showed technical strength
High-yield bonds often deliver strong returns following a period of crisis – why is that and will it happen in the wake of COVID-19? Due to a higher-risk nature of its constituents (including the greater risk of default), the high-yield
U.S. Treasury yields ended the week modestly lower, led by longer maturities. Markets appeared focused on escalating coronavirus concerns, despite generally stronger U.S. economic data. Rising U.S. virus cases are stoking fears of another lock down and associated slowing in economic
