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Tag "inflation"

With growth and policy, which matters more: Level or change?

With growth and policy, which matters more: Level or change?

🕔14:18, 16.Oct 2021

Asset Allocation Fourth Quarter 2021 KEY POINTS The level of growth and the level of policy support remain supportive but have declined marginally, leaving us pro-risk still but less so. Within equities, we prefer Europe, where economic fundamentals are improving and

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Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

🕔13:55, 15.Oct 2021

Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen.  De Timber-strategie van Pictet

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Inflation, no time to die

Inflation, no time to die

🕔21:08, 13.Oct 2021

IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets

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Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of  higher higher inflation

Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of higher higher inflation

🕔08:49, 13.Oct 2021

The return of inflation is clearly one of the top themes of 2021 and the post-pandemic economic revival. In addition to the temporary effects associated with supply chain bottlenecks (semiconductors, energy, copper, etc.) during a sudden upturn, there is the

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Mounting risks, buying time

Mounting risks, buying time

🕔17:10, 11.Oct 2021

CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on

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A transitory change in correlation

A transitory change in correlation

🕔14:30, 11.Oct 2021

Uncommon truths: Rising bond yields have recently been associated with falling equity prices (reversing the trend of this century). We think this is a temporary reversal and do not fear higher yields, unless caused by costpush inflation (we would then

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Why Are Gas Prices So High?

Why Are Gas Prices So High?

🕔09:50, 9.Oct 2021

In October 2019, the OIES published a Comment entitled ‘$2 gas in Europe’, 1 which turned into a series of papers with similar titles. 2, 3 The first paper suggested that 2020 could see gas prices in Europe below $3

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For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

🕔10:36, 30.Sep 2021

August was friendly, which it often hasn’t been in the past. In bonds, little happened overall. Government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds showed a slightly negative total return, while the high-yield segment, as well as Asian bonds, just made it

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An uneasy truce

An uneasy truce

🕔16:21, 28.Sep 2021

The past month has seen geopolitics move back into the headlines as the United States and its allies made a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reflecting on the often messy resolution of military conflicts over the ages, the concept …

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Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

🕔12:47, 24.Sep 2021

Investors cite inflation hedging power as one of the primary attractions of property investments.2 This characteristic has been of limited use in recent years given the very low pace of inflation in the US and throughout most developed global markets

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Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

🕔16:23, 17.Sep 2021

Inflation? The debate about inflation has been hotting up. During the earnings season, many companies flagged up the fact that they were experiencing higher supply costs. In April, the latest US CPI print – a measure of inflation in the

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Alpha Research – Bijeenkomst – Focus op inkomen in tijden van inflatie

🕔15:00, 16.Sep 2021

Alpha Research organiseert samen met PGIM, Ossiam (een affiliate van Natixis Investment Managers) en State Street SPDR ETF’s een bijeenkomst waarin de vraag over inkomsten en inflatie centraal staat. In twee uur tijd krijgt u een overzicht van de asset

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Reading the inflation tea leaves

Reading the inflation tea leaves

🕔16:03, 13.Sep 2021

Why is this concerning? Well, the clearing mechanism for supply and demand is price. If demand is growing robustly but supply is struggling to keep up (both anecdotes cited in the ISM report), then price is going to adjust to

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De geheimen van inflatiegerelateerde obligaties

De geheimen van inflatiegerelateerde obligaties

🕔14:56, 10.Sep 2021

Nu de consumptieprijzen stijgen, zoeken beleggers steeds vaker producten om zich te beschermen tegen inflatie, zoals inflatiegerelateerde obligaties. Maar ze moeten zich ook bewust zijn van de complexiteit. De schokkende Amerikaanse consumentenprijzen in april maakten duidelijk dat de prijsdruk opnieuw

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Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

Quick take on Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

🕔08:17, 8.Sep 2021

brief summary of their views. In his speech, Chairman Powell indicated that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is on track to begin tapering its $120 billion-per-month asset purchase program later this year and shared a dovish view on US inflation.

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Barometer: Dealing with Delta

Barometer: Dealing with Delta

🕔15:40, 7.Sep 2021

Asset allocation: stimulus and vaccine offer enduring support Economic growth has clearly slowed in recent months thanks in large part to the spread of the particularly infectious Delta variant of Covid. Still, with monetary stimulus in plentiful supply and vaccination

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint September 2021

🕔12:42, 30.Aug 2021

Forecast update: a touch of stagflation We still expect a robust recovery in the world economy, but the outlook has moved in a stagflationary direction as growth momentum fades and price pressures rise. Our forecast for global GDP growth is

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Inflation is temporary

Inflation is temporary

🕔10:58, 30.Aug 2021

The difference between price and inflation The recent jump in inflation reflects an uneven recovery from the pandemic rather than a long-term shift U.S. job growth has been lower than expected even as demand for workers remains robust. Consumer prices

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Pensioenakkoord uitgelegd Deel 6: Solidariteitsreserve

Pensioenakkoord uitgelegd Deel 6: Solidariteitsreserve

🕔08:00, 26.Aug 2021

Vorig jaar zomer hebben het kabinet en sociale partners overeenstemming bereikt over een vergaande herziening van het pensioenstelsel. Dit pensioenakkoord heeft grote gevolgen voor hoe pensioen wordt opgebouwd en wordt belegd. In deze serie bespreken we het pensioenakkoord en de

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How inflation can be an opportunity for active fixed-income investors

How inflation can be an opportunity for active fixed-income investors

🕔18:27, 24.Aug 2021

Rising prices for goods and services are one of the biggest risks for investors in conventional government bonds. But there are ways for active managers to generate positive returns from rising – and falling – inflation. The key is to

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Worried About Inflation? Pay Attention to Labor Participation

Worried About Inflation? Pay Attention to Labor Participation

🕔03:58, 24.Aug 2021

Fixed Income Perspectives: U.S. consumer prices see their largest increase since 2008, topping all estimates. That summarizes headlines about recent inflation data. Since the beginning of this year, our view has been that the change …

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Equities rally as economic and virus news shifts

Equities rally as economic and virus news shifts

🕔15:18, 23.Aug 2021

CPI inflation was lower than expected in July. The slowdown in consumer prices was welcome news for markets, and supports the views of central bankers and others who have deemed this …

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Predicting Equity Returns with Inflation

Predicting Equity Returns with Inflation

🕔09:30, 23.Aug 2021

Key Points Rather than predicting what will happen to inflation in the future—a particularly arduous and humbling task—we ask a simple question: What can past inflation dynamics tell us about the equity market’s future returns? We propose two new investment

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔13:02, 20.Aug 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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Part 1: inflation – tall tales and true causes

Part 1: inflation – tall tales and true causes

🕔12:53, 18.Aug 2021

Much Ado about Nothing Fears of inflation often make themselves felt at the strangest times. During the 2008-09 recession many were warning of inflation and even hyperinflation due to the government and central bank policies being enacted in response to

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US inflation – Is the pressure off?

US inflation – Is the pressure off?

🕔11:15, 16.Aug 2021

For the first time in several months, inflation in the US has moderated, indicating that price pressures in some areas have weakened. Big questions remain over the extent durable goods prices – which have been a significant source of inflation

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Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

🕔13:28, 13.Aug 2021

Investors may be concerned about how to protect their portfolios from the impact of higher inflation. Investments such as commodities, real estate and equities have historically outperformed when prices rise. But performance doesn’t tell the whole story. These asset classes

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Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

🕔12:31, 13.Aug 2021

Key takeaways Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have moved lower, despite higher inflation. Fed officials now project two rates hikes by the end of 2023 and appear to be ready to begin tapering of its asset purchasing program as

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Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

🕔15:09, 12.Aug 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had

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Assessing Inflation: Theories, Policies and Portfolios

Assessing Inflation: Theories, Policies and Portfolios

🕔13:12, 5.Aug 2021

Executive Summary As inflation spiked in the second quarter of 2021, debate about its transitory or permanent nature became more heated. Yet, as is sometimes the case with broad controversies, a lack of definition goes with a lack of comprehension.

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Answers to your 5 biggest investment concerns

Answers to your 5 biggest investment concerns

🕔10:24, 5.Aug 2021

Markets have been climbing a wall of worry in 2021, reaching record highs even as investors brace for the possibility of elevated inflation, rising interest rates, runaway debt and a bitcoin bubble. With so much to trouble investors, many are

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The Next Phase

The Next Phase

🕔12:30, 28.Jul 2021

Mid-Year Outlook 2021 The view of investors on the outlook for US growth and inflation has varied significantly over the course of the year. Following the positive vaccine trial results last November, and particularly with the Democratic Senate victories in

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Pick your scary story

Pick your scary story

🕔14:31, 27.Jul 2021

These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in

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The threat from inflation

The threat from inflation

🕔16:30, 23.Jul 2021

Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of

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Just a bump in the road?

Just a bump in the road?

🕔10:56, 23.Jul 2021

Despite investor worries about the impact of semiconductor shortages to automotive production and input cost inflation, the automotive industry remains healthy and the evolution of the industry towards electric vehicles remains strong. 

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Managing inflation: no easy options

Managing inflation: no easy options

🕔10:28, 16.Jul 2021

A shift from ‘lowflation’ to a moderately rising inflation regime could bring with it greater dispersion in asset returns. While ultimately positive for investors, the transition may …

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Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

🕔16:04, 7.Jul 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis. Different narratives are evolving at this

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‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

🕔17:01, 21.Jun 2021

Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of

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Positioning for a New Economic Landscape

Positioning for a New Economic Landscape

🕔10:15, 16.Jun 2021

Recovery is on track, but inflation pressures create risks.  The strengthening economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic appears poised to broaden across regions and countries in the second half of 2021, bolstered by vaccine progress, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus,

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Barometer: Iets minder groei, iets meer inflatie

Barometer: Iets minder groei, iets meer inflatie

🕔10:48, 11.Jun 2021

De economische groei zal weldra vertragen, maar de inflatiedruk kan nog een tijdje aanhouden. Beleggers moeten dus een defensievere houding aannemen.

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China in the global inflation scare

China in the global inflation scare

🕔10:03, 10.Jun 2021

Markets are worrying about rising inflation, but to date, there has been no evidence yet of ‘demand-pull’ inflation amplifying cost-push pressures, especially in Asia. There is also no sign of a global wage-price spiral. Nevertheless, we believe there are reasons

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The Eurozone Faces an Inflation Roller Coaster

The Eurozone Faces an Inflation Roller Coaster

🕔14:21, 3.Jun 2021

Price rises will likely slow next year—before picking up again. Rising inflation in the eurozone likely has longer to run, but we don’t believe it is permanent. Although the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) was expected to hit 1.6% in April1

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Is kwantitatieve versoepeling het nieuwe redmiddel geworden van de opkomende markten?

Is kwantitatieve versoepeling het nieuwe redmiddel geworden van de opkomende markten?

🕔16:28, 1.Jun 2021

De opkomende markten zijn vorig jaar, in volle Covid19-crisis, kwantitatieve versoepeling beginnen te verkennen. Betekent dit dat kwantitatieve versoepeling nu deel uitmaakt van de monetaire instrumenten? Wat zijn de voordelen en risico's? In het licht van de huidige economische crisis

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Long View – Inflation

Long View – Inflation

🕔12:47, 1.Jun 2021

As regions across the globe emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing sense of optimism about economic acceleration. The strength in global PMIs and measures of consumer confidence (such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the

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Breaking Bad.

Breaking Bad.

🕔08:28, 28.May 2021

In Credit: The key theme this year for markets has been the trend higher in inflation expectations and the question of whether the US economy is overheating. This has prompted a rise in government bond yields, with German and UK

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US inflation blasts past expectations as economy reopens

US inflation blasts past expectations as economy reopens

🕔14:10, 27.May 2021

US core consumer prices jumped by 0.9% on the month in April. When combined with the big fall in prices 12 months ago dropping out of the annual calculation, year-on-year core consumer price index (CPI) inflation was pushed up to

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Quick-take on the US inflation outlook

Quick-take on the US inflation outlook

🕔16:47, 26.May 2021

US inflation surprised to the upside in April with the core consumer price index rising 0.9% in April and headline CPI up 0.8%1. This materially changes the maths on inflation. Even if the monthly trend in inflation decelerates to 0.15%,

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Inflation risks, regimes and implications for treasury markets

Inflation risks, regimes and implications for treasury markets

🕔12:55, 25.May 2021

On the tail of hard pandemic lockdowns that imposed the deepest economic contraction on record, the US economy is reopening amid a rapid COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and an avalanche of fiscal spending. So, investors are naturally now contemplating what kind

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US inflation – Higher for longer?

US inflation – Higher for longer?

🕔11:45, 21.May 2021

US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer. Markets are

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UBP – Webinar – How can you benefit from the rise in US rates?

🕔14:00, 20.May 2021

The recent rise in US yields offers opportunities for the EURO-based investor. But between economic recovery, the FED policy, the rise of inflation, and the fiscal stimulus, how to make the right choice for your fixed income portfolio ? Come

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