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A Temporary Reversal

A Temporary Reversal

🕔10:45, 7.May 2021

Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The

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As the Policy Pendulum Swings, a New Inflation Regime Takes Shape

As the Policy Pendulum Swings, a New Inflation Regime Takes Shape

🕔14:02, 3.May 2021

After a long period of disappointing economic outcomes for much of the global populace, the pendulum is swinging toward a new policy mix – and away from the fiscal austerity that often marked the previous cycle. Starting with the Brexit

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Great Expectations.

Great Expectations.

🕔11:21, 27.Apr 2021

In Credit  Inflation arrived in the US last week. There was also a bumper crop of strong economic data releases. This had been largely expected and remarkably yields fell to the lowest level in a month with the US 10-year

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The base effect

The base effect

🕔14:45, 26.Apr 2021

Investors are keenly focused on the risk of inflation, as higher bond yields would hurt both stocks and bonds. Over the last week, inflation data came in hotter than expected, yet both bonds and stocks rallied. It looks like our

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Inflation Likely to Accelerate: A Non‑consensus View

Inflation Likely to Accelerate: A Non‑consensus View

🕔10:41, 23.Apr 2021

Aggressive stimulus and labor market tightening mean higher inflation risk. Asset and commodity prices have been moving in line with the view that supply constraints and a weaker U.S. dollar are putting incipient pressure on underlying inflation trends. Contrary to

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Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go?

Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go?

🕔15:24, 20.Apr 2021

Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go? The possibility of an economic boom this year has stoked worries about higher inflation and prompted a sharp selloff in US Treasuries. We spoke with fixed income portfolio manager Pramod

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Calm after a storm.

Calm after a storm.

🕔15:28, 16.Apr 2021

There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.

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Ebb and Flow

Ebb and Flow

🕔16:44, 15.Apr 2021

The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …

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Inflation, long-term yield, equities: A merry dance in March

Inflation, long-term yield, equities: A merry dance in March

🕔09:47, 13.Apr 2021

At 2.5% for the MSCI AC World index, the rise in global equities in March was close to February’s 2.2%. It wasn’t all smooth running, though, as the advance of equities was challenged by a rise in US bond yields on the back of a favourable economic outlook that also prompted inflation fears.

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Inflated inflation fears

Inflated inflation fears

🕔13:14, 24.Mar 2021

For bond markets, this year has been all about rising inflation expectations and more recently real yields. This has pushed yields higher and dented total returns for areas of fixed income with higher levels of interest rate risk. The effect such moves have depends on the interest rate sensitivity (duration) of the …

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De geheimen van de bitcoin

De geheimen van de bitcoin

🕔16:49, 16.Mar 2021

Het is geen toeval dat de bitcoin opnieuw in de belangstelling staat nu de bezorgdheid over de inflatie toeneemt. Dat komt omdat cryptomunten, waarvan de bitcoin de bekendste is, barometers zijn geworden van het sentiment over een agressief monetair beleid van de centrale banken en financiële repressie. De voorbije tien …

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Some like it hot?

Some like it hot?

🕔12:16, 15.Mar 2021

We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …

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Reflation? Inflation? Both?

Reflation? Inflation? Both?

🕔13:33, 12.Mar 2021

Global equities rose over February as a whole, but this masked recent investor concerns. Leading indices touched new highs by mid-February, but by the end of the month, markets had seen a nervous sell-off in the wake of rising US bond yields.

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Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

🕔07:47, 12.Mar 2021

Het economisch herstel dat in de loop van 2021 aan kracht zal winnen, zou niet leiden tot een snel oplopende inflatie.

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China’s disinflation and implications

China’s disinflation and implications

🕔13:31, 11.Mar 2021

China has abandoned its ‘growth at all cost’ push and is sticking with its deleveraging and structural reform policy despite the trade war with the US and COVID-19 shocks. This has resulted in a constrained growth environment.

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Stuckflation failing? Inflation is visiting but won’t stay over

Stuckflation failing? Inflation is visiting but won’t stay over

🕔14:01, 4.Mar 2021

Financial markets have rapidly priced in higher long-term inflation rates — close to or above central bank targets. Is our “Stuckflation Tested” five-year theme at risk of failing? We don’t think so. It will take years for the current cyclical upswing in inflation to become entrenched, if it happens at all. 

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Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

🕔12:52, 23.Feb 2021

In January, the US Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to low interest rates for a prolonged period of time under its new monetary policy framework. If anything, with its renewed focus on “broad-based and inclusive” maximum employment and a goal of achieving inflation that averages 2% over time, the …

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The inflation spike

The inflation spike

🕔16:29, 17.Feb 2021

The US inflation numbers published this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were slightly below consensus at 1.4% for annual headline inflation, basically unchanged from last month. Quite a contrast compared to the latest German and EU inflation numbers, which were …

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Still a lot of uncertainty

Still a lot of uncertainty

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2021

It seems like global financial markets and economies are experiencing a neverending fluctuation between increased clarity, as we described in last months’ Allocation Views, and continued uncertainty. Depending on …

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A not-so-great rotation in developed market equities

A not-so-great rotation in developed market equities

🕔14:20, 15.Feb 2021

A not-so-great rotation in developed market equities Equity investors, quite rightly, remain resolutely focused on the positive, medium-term outlook for corporate profits rather than the near-term economic challenges. In our view, the economic recovery and rebound in inflation will drive

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From Despair to Hope

From Despair to Hope

🕔14:55, 12.Feb 2021

In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …

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What do the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures mean for inflation?

What do the unprecedented monetary and fiscal measures mean for inflation?

🕔16:21, 9.Feb 2021

As the largest vaccination programme in history commences, risk markets appear to be ignoring the logistical challenges or near-term downside growth risks from tighter lockdowns imposed after infection rates in Northern Hemisphere countries soared over the winter. With the S&P at or close to all-time highs and many …

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Podcast: Spend, spend, but no inflation in sight

🕔11:56, 1.Feb 2021

US government spending to help the economy cope with the dire consequences of COVID-19 looks set to reach record peacetime levels, but absent a boost to inflation, it is unlikely to set in motion a push for higher interest rates anytime soon. Senior US economist Mark Allan explains.

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‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

🕔12:59, 10.Dec 2020

In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has

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Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

🕔16:40, 24.Nov 2020

#47 Tomorrow our event calendar is filled with five webinars! If you have spare time tomorrow, don’t miss out on an interesting session. Furthermore, next week December starts and this month has lots of interesting webinars as well. For example,

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Fixed Income Perspectives

Fixed Income Perspectives

🕔15:09, 20.Nov 2020

Market GPS Chairman Jerome Powell recently introduced the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy with a renewed commitment to achieving an average inflation target. The policy will require allowing infl ation to run above 2% to make up for persistently missing

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Fixed Income Outlook – Q4 2020

Fixed Income Outlook – Q4 2020

🕔14:43, 20.Nov 2020

Introduction: Binary outcomes In our recent CIO Autumn Outlook, we highlighted the binary nature of the key event risks heading into the final quarter, all of which still have the scope to move markets significantly. These are the US presidential

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BNP Paribas AM – Webinar – The Great Instability: Inflation – past, present and future

🕔15:00, 19.Nov 2020

Webinar – The Great Instability: Inflation – past, present and future We are delighted to invite you to the next episode in our Great Instability virtual event series. On 19th November we will be tackling Inflation – past, present and

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Time for a new playbook on inflation and active management?

Time for a new playbook on inflation and active management?

🕔08:14, 16.Nov 2020

"…the most compelling reasons to consider the case for higher inflation are the risk of a policy error, given the new, more aggressive fiscal/ monetary policy mindset, and the risk of deglobalization driving wage pressures."

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Global Market Outlook

Global Market Outlook

🕔13:10, 9.Nov 2020

As markets continue to ponder the US Presidential election result, a surge in COVID19 cases across Europe has led to a darkening near-term outlook. How things play out in the US—from a political and virus perspective—is still uncertain, but another

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The Road Ahead

The Road Ahead

🕔07:37, 29.Oct 2020

“ In fact, Powell noted that the Fed seeks to promote its employment and inflation goals while warding off any risks to financial stability (i.e., asset bubbles) ‘that impede the stability of our goals’. “

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Het inflatievraagstuk en de overgang naar het post-covid tijdperk

Het inflatievraagstuk en de overgang naar het post-covid tijdperk

🕔08:04, 6.Oct 2020

Al drukt de covid-19 pandemie de economische groei en inflatieverwachtingen, centrale banken en overheden zetten hier steeds verdergaande stimuleringsmaatregelen tegenover. In combinatie met trends als deglobalisering, kan dit een structurele kanteling in gang zetten die de inflatie juist op een

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Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

🕔15:26, 2.Oct 2020

Key takeaways Fed shifts policy to accept inflation above 2% target “for some time” Historic shift is unlikely to generate higher US inflation in the near term Key US inflation drivers not pointing to higher prices, despite COVID-19 stimulus

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Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes

Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes

🕔11:44, 30.Sep 2020

An upside-down market is a market in which good news functions as bad news and bad news functions as good news. The force that turns markets upside-down is policy. News, good or bad, triggers a countervailing policy response with effects

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Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

🕔14:58, 25.Sep 2020

Interpretive Analysis and Insights   During the last quarter of 2018, major U.S. indices plunged approximately 20% from their peaks of end of late August/early October. In 2019, they recovered and reached new highs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial

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Greater inflation risks ahead

Greater inflation risks ahead

🕔09:38, 23.Sep 2020

Weekly commentary We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets. Three new forces are at play: rising global production cost, new central bank policy frameworks that allow for …

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Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

🕔11:20, 12.Sep 2020

#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts

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Real estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world

Real estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world

🕔13:22, 10.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve's recent Jackson Hole Symposium has renewed attention on inflation in light of the unprecedented global fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic If inflation exceeds capital market expectations, risk assets could underperform. As such, investors

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Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

🕔11:07, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

🕔10:08, 5.Sep 2020

#36 It was a bit quiet in webinar-world the past month, but this month our calendar is quite busy again. For example, next week Capital Group hosts a webinar called “10 investment themes for the next 10 years“. The week

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔07:39, 25.Aug 2020

Since our last forecast in May we have seen a further easing of lockdowns, particularly in Europe, and a gradual resumption of economic activity. The US has seen a second wave of outbreaks in the southern states and cases in

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The Case for (Eventual) Inflation

The Case for (Eventual) Inflation

🕔11:25, 14.Aug 2020

Most investors came of age during a persistently disinflationary environment. Given the disinflationary demand shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic, that backdrop is likely to endure for the next several years. However, the combination of massive unconventional monetary policy and

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Observations driving our outlook

Observations driving our outlook

🕔15:34, 17.Jul 2020

2020 Real Assets Outlook Coronavirus… The ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy has dramatically altered our outlook on inflation, risk and asset class returns. Going into 2020, valuations for many risk assets were rich and expected returns were

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COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 2

COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 2

🕔13:26, 14.Jul 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  In the first of our two papers, we considered the debate about the impact of coronavirus on the inflation outlook and we presented the case for a subdued outlook for Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) over the coming

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COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 1

COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 1

🕔13:09, 13.Jul 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  Of all the economic uncertainties that the COVID-19 pandemic has raised, the most confusion appears to be focused on inflation. Amidst the ambiguity over the scale of the economic …

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Monthly Must-Reads

Monthly Must-Reads

🕔09:28, 1.Jul 2020

A compilation of thought-provoking insights produced by Man Group during the month. Inflation Regime Roadmap Teun Draaisma, Ben Funnell and Henry Neville from Man Group’s DNA team study the history of inflationary regimes, and conclude that current extremes in deflation,

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Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

🕔08:02, 11.Jun 2020

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary

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Pensioen Pro – Webinar – Naar een nieuw strategisch beleggingsbeleid?

🕔13:00, 3.Jun 2020

Webinar – Naar een nieuw strategisch beleggingsbeleid? De coronacrisis stelt pensioenfondsen voor buitengewoon lastige vragen. Pensioen Pro gaat op zoek naar antwoorden in een serie interactieve live-uitzendingen. U kijkt vanuit huis (of kantoor) mee en u kunt direct reageren en

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After the Virus: A Binary World

After the Virus: A Binary World

🕔08:10, 3.Jun 2020

As the world assesses what will change after the COVID-19 pandemic, Jim Cielinski, Head of Fixed Income, introduces the questions Janus Henderson expects to be key in setting investment strategy going forward. We seek to share the insights of our

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Current opportunities in the TIPS market

Current opportunities in the TIPS market

🕔15:22, 27.May 2020

Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in

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