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Tag "inflation"

De geheimen van inflatiegerelateerde obligaties

De geheimen van inflatiegerelateerde obligaties

🕔14:56, 30.Jul 2021

Nu de consumptieprijzen stijgen, zoeken beleggers steeds vaker producten om zich te beschermen tegen inflatie, zoals inflatiegerelateerde obligaties. Maar ze moeten zich ook bewust zijn van de complexiteit. De schokkende Amerikaanse consumentenprijzen in april maakten duidelijk dat de prijsdruk opnieuw

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The Next Phase

The Next Phase

🕔12:30, 28.Jul 2021

Mid-Year Outlook 2021 The view of investors on the outlook for US growth and inflation has varied significantly over the course of the year. Following the positive vaccine trial results last November, and particularly with the Democratic Senate victories in

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Pick your scary story

Pick your scary story

🕔14:31, 27.Jul 2021

These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in

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The arrival of long expected inflation.

The arrival of long expected inflation.

🕔12:02, 27.Jul 2021

In Credit: Inflation had long been expected to rise – and rise it has! Data released from the US and UK last week showed a jump in prices that exceeded (increased) expectations by some margin. Starting in the US, Consumer

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The threat from inflation

The threat from inflation

🕔16:30, 23.Jul 2021

Weekly investment update: Another month, another US inflation report beating market expectations. Headline year-on-year consumer price index (CPI) inflation has gone from 1.1% last November to 4.9% in May. Even though economists knew that base effects meant the rate of

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Just a bump in the road?

Just a bump in the road?

🕔10:56, 23.Jul 2021

Despite investor worries about the impact of semiconductor shortages to automotive production and input cost inflation, the automotive industry remains healthy and the evolution of the industry towards electric vehicles remains strong. 

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Pensioenakkoord uitgelegd Deel 6: Solidariteitsreserve

Pensioenakkoord uitgelegd Deel 6: Solidariteitsreserve

🕔14:18, 22.Jul 2021

Vorig jaar zomer hebben het kabinet en sociale partners overeenstemming bereikt over een vergaande herziening van het pensioenstelsel. Dit pensioenakkoord heeft grote gevolgen voor hoe pensioen wordt opgebouwd en wordt belegd. In deze serie bespreken we het pensioenakkoord en de

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Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

Market’s view of transitory inflation in the US may be premature

🕔10:31, 22.Jul 2021

Key takeaways Treasury yields and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities have moved lower, despite higher inflation. Fed officials now project two rates hikes by the end of 2023 and appear to be ready to begin tapering of its asset purchasing program as

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Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

Inflation-hedging your portfolio? Beware of unintended consequences

🕔15:28, 20.Jul 2021

Investors may be concerned about how to protect their portfolios from the impact of higher inflation. Investments such as commodities, real estate and equities have historically outperformed when prices rise. But performance doesn’t tell the whole story. These asset classes

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Managing inflation: no easy options

Managing inflation: no easy options

🕔10:28, 16.Jul 2021

A shift from ‘lowflation’ to a moderately rising inflation regime could bring with it greater dispersion in asset returns. While ultimately positive for investors, the transition may …

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Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

Inflation blows on markets, and investors need to act

🕔16:04, 7.Jul 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has transformed the world with far reaching consequences that markets are now starting to assess. The most important one being what will be left of the Great Recovery following the crisis. Different narratives are evolving at this

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Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

🕔13:55, 6.Jul 2021

Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen.  De Timber-strategie van Pictet

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‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim, but not as we know it’.

🕔17:01, 21.Jun 2021

Quarter one of this year was a miserable experience for the bond market. There was just too much ‘good news’ flowing around the system to contain bond yields. The Biden fiscal push, the successful rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and, of

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Positioning for a New Economic Landscape

Positioning for a New Economic Landscape

🕔10:15, 16.Jun 2021

Recovery is on track, but inflation pressures create risks.  The strengthening economic recovery from the coronavirus pandemic appears poised to broaden across regions and countries in the second half of 2021, bolstered by vaccine progress, continued fiscal and monetary stimulus,

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Barometer: Iets minder groei, iets meer inflatie

Barometer: Iets minder groei, iets meer inflatie

🕔10:48, 11.Jun 2021

De economische groei zal weldra vertragen, maar de inflatiedruk kan nog een tijdje aanhouden. Beleggers moeten dus een defensievere houding aannemen.

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China in the global inflation scare

China in the global inflation scare

🕔10:03, 10.Jun 2021

Markets are worrying about rising inflation, but to date, there has been no evidence yet of ‘demand-pull’ inflation amplifying cost-push pressures, especially in Asia. There is also no sign of a global wage-price spiral. Nevertheless, we believe there are reasons

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The Eurozone Faces an Inflation Roller Coaster

The Eurozone Faces an Inflation Roller Coaster

🕔14:21, 3.Jun 2021

Price rises will likely slow next year—before picking up again. Rising inflation in the eurozone likely has longer to run, but we don’t believe it is permanent. Although the eurozone consumer price index (CPI) was expected to hit 1.6% in April1

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Is kwantitatieve versoepeling het nieuwe redmiddel geworden van de opkomende markten?

Is kwantitatieve versoepeling het nieuwe redmiddel geworden van de opkomende markten?

🕔16:28, 1.Jun 2021

De opkomende markten zijn vorig jaar, in volle Covid19-crisis, kwantitatieve versoepeling beginnen te verkennen. Betekent dit dat kwantitatieve versoepeling nu deel uitmaakt van de monetaire instrumenten? Wat zijn de voordelen en risico's? In het licht van de huidige economische crisis

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Long View – Inflation

Long View – Inflation

🕔12:47, 1.Jun 2021

As regions across the globe emerge from the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a growing sense of optimism about economic acceleration. The strength in global PMIs and measures of consumer confidence (such as the University of Michigan consumer sentiment and the

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Breaking Bad.

Breaking Bad.

🕔08:28, 28.May 2021

In Credit: The key theme this year for markets has been the trend higher in inflation expectations and the question of whether the US economy is overheating. This has prompted a rise in government bond yields, with German and UK

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Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

Podcast: Inflation? Are you ready?

🕔16:23, 27.May 2021

Inflation? The debate about inflation has been hotting up. During the earnings season, many companies flagged up the fact that they were experiencing higher supply costs. In April, the latest US CPI print – a measure of inflation in the

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US inflation blasts past expectations as economy reopens

US inflation blasts past expectations as economy reopens

🕔14:10, 27.May 2021

US core consumer prices jumped by 0.9% on the month in April. When combined with the big fall in prices 12 months ago dropping out of the annual calculation, year-on-year core consumer price index (CPI) inflation was pushed up to

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Quick-take on the US inflation outlook

Quick-take on the US inflation outlook

🕔16:47, 26.May 2021

US inflation surprised to the upside in April with the core consumer price index rising 0.9% in April and headline CPI up 0.8%1. This materially changes the maths on inflation. Even if the monthly trend in inflation decelerates to 0.15%,

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Inflation risks, regimes and implications for treasury markets

Inflation risks, regimes and implications for treasury markets

🕔12:55, 25.May 2021

On the tail of hard pandemic lockdowns that imposed the deepest economic contraction on record, the US economy is reopening amid a rapid COVID-19 vaccination roll-out and an avalanche of fiscal spending. So, investors are naturally now contemplating what kind

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US inflation – Higher for longer?

US inflation – Higher for longer?

🕔11:45, 21.May 2021

US inflation looks set to rise significantly heading into the summer. Contrary to the view that this will be a temporary increase, a number of forces could combine to create greater structural pressure pushing prices higher for longer. Markets are

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UBP – Webinar – How can you benefit from the rise in US rates?

🕔14:00, 20.May 2021

The recent rise in US yields offers opportunities for the EURO-based investor. But between economic recovery, the FED policy, the rise of inflation, and the fiscal stimulus, how to make the right choice for your fixed income portfolio ? Come

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Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go?

Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go?

🕔14:02, 19.May 2021

Amid a US economic boom, how high can rates go? The possibility of an economic boom this year has stoked worries about higher inflation and prompted a sharp selloff in US Treasuries. We spoke with fixed income portfolio manager Pramod

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Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

Significant uncertainty in US inflation forecasts

🕔10:01, 19.May 2021

The Weekly Brief: The rise in US economic growth and inflation has been well flagged by markets and economists but uncertainty remains as to the persistence of these pickups. A successful vaccine rollout is enabling a reopening of the economy

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Podcast: Recovery and structural shifts signal inflation ahead in the US

Podcast: Recovery and structural shifts signal inflation ahead in the US

🕔16:33, 17.May 2021

Inflation has been quiescent in developed economies in recent years. Today, the possibility that we may be on the brink of a secular shift away from the low-flation regime is a topic of intense debate among investors. Nowhere is this

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Fixed income: year-to-date performance summary

Fixed income: year-to-date performance summary

🕔14:00, 17.May 2021

As we reach the mid-point of Q2 2021 it seems a good time to sum up fixed income markets year-to-date. As you can see in Figure 1, government bond yields are higher – with the US and, to an extent,

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Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

🕔12:47, 10.May 2021

Investors cite inflation hedging power as one of the primary attractions of property investments.2 This characteristic has been of limited use in recent years given the very low pace of inflation in the US and throughout most developed global markets

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Beyond CPI: Gold as a strategic inflation hedge

Beyond CPI: Gold as a strategic inflation hedge

🕔08:05, 10.May 2021

Inflation has emerged as a primary concern for investors.1 On balance, arguments for ‘uncomfortably high’ US inflation seem to outnumber those against, at least in the near term.2 A natural consequence of such a risk is for investors to seek

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A Temporary Reversal

A Temporary Reversal

🕔10:45, 7.May 2021

Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The

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As the Policy Pendulum Swings, a New Inflation Regime Takes Shape

As the Policy Pendulum Swings, a New Inflation Regime Takes Shape

🕔14:02, 3.May 2021

After a long period of disappointing economic outcomes for much of the global populace, the pendulum is swinging toward a new policy mix – and away from the fiscal austerity that often marked the previous cycle. Starting with the Brexit

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Great Expectations.

Great Expectations.

🕔11:21, 27.Apr 2021

In Credit  Inflation arrived in the US last week. There was also a bumper crop of strong economic data releases. This had been largely expected and remarkably yields fell to the lowest level in a month with the US 10-year

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The base effect

The base effect

🕔14:45, 26.Apr 2021

Investors are keenly focused on the risk of inflation, as higher bond yields would hurt both stocks and bonds. Over the last week, inflation data came in hotter than expected, yet both bonds and stocks rallied. It looks like our

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Inflation Likely to Accelerate: A Non‑consensus View

Inflation Likely to Accelerate: A Non‑consensus View

🕔10:41, 23.Apr 2021

Aggressive stimulus and labor market tightening mean higher inflation risk. Asset and commodity prices have been moving in line with the view that supply constraints and a weaker U.S. dollar are putting incipient pressure on underlying inflation trends. Contrary to

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Calm after a storm.

Calm after a storm.

🕔15:28, 16.Apr 2021

There has been a degree more stability or calm in core government markets over the last couple of weeks. This comes after a very difficult start to the year, especially in the US.

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Ebb and Flow

Ebb and Flow

🕔16:44, 15.Apr 2021

The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …

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Inflation, long-term yield, equities: A merry dance in March

Inflation, long-term yield, equities: A merry dance in March

🕔09:47, 13.Apr 2021

At 2.5% for the MSCI AC World index, the rise in global equities in March was close to February’s 2.2%. It wasn’t all smooth running, though, as the advance of equities was challenged by a rise in US bond yields on the back of a favourable economic outlook that also prompted inflation fears.

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Inflated inflation fears

Inflated inflation fears

🕔13:14, 24.Mar 2021

For bond markets, this year has been all about rising inflation expectations and more recently real yields. This has pushed yields higher and dented total returns for areas of fixed income with higher levels of interest rate risk. The effect such moves have depends on the interest rate sensitivity (duration) of the …

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De geheimen van de bitcoin

De geheimen van de bitcoin

🕔16:49, 16.Mar 2021

Het is geen toeval dat de bitcoin opnieuw in de belangstelling staat nu de bezorgdheid over de inflatie toeneemt. Dat komt omdat cryptomunten, waarvan de bitcoin de bekendste is, barometers zijn geworden van het sentiment over een agressief monetair beleid van de centrale banken en financiële repressie. De voorbije tien …

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Some like it hot?

Some like it hot?

🕔12:16, 15.Mar 2021

We have seen an exceptionally sharp pickup in growth expectations, centered on the United States. Economists have adopted a narrative of a rapid fiscally fueled expansion, which supports a strong rebound in corporate earnings. Some of the drivers are global in nature, such as the continued rollout of vaccines that appear to be having the desired effect …

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Reflation? Inflation? Both?

Reflation? Inflation? Both?

🕔13:33, 12.Mar 2021

Global equities rose over February as a whole, but this masked recent investor concerns. Leading indices touched new highs by mid-February, but by the end of the month, markets had seen a nervous sell-off in the wake of rising US bond yields.

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Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

Barometer: Inflatievrees overgewaaid

🕔07:47, 12.Mar 2021

Het economisch herstel dat in de loop van 2021 aan kracht zal winnen, zou niet leiden tot een snel oplopende inflatie.

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China’s disinflation and implications

China’s disinflation and implications

🕔13:31, 11.Mar 2021

China has abandoned its ‘growth at all cost’ push and is sticking with its deleveraging and structural reform policy despite the trade war with the US and COVID-19 shocks. This has resulted in a constrained growth environment.

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Stuckflation failing? Inflation is visiting but won’t stay over

Stuckflation failing? Inflation is visiting but won’t stay over

🕔14:01, 4.Mar 2021

Financial markets have rapidly priced in higher long-term inflation rates — close to or above central bank targets. Is our “Stuckflation Tested” five-year theme at risk of failing? We don’t think so. It will take years for the current cyclical upswing in inflation to become entrenched, if it happens at all. 

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Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

Will the Fed’s new policy framework bring higher inflation?

🕔12:52, 23.Feb 2021

In January, the US Federal Reserve affirmed its commitment to low interest rates for a prolonged period of time under its new monetary policy framework. If anything, with its renewed focus on “broad-based and inclusive” maximum employment and a goal of achieving inflation that averages 2% over time, the …

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The inflation spike

The inflation spike

🕔16:29, 17.Feb 2021

The US inflation numbers published this week by the Bureau of Labor Statistics were slightly below consensus at 1.4% for annual headline inflation, basically unchanged from last month. Quite a contrast compared to the latest German and EU inflation numbers, which were …

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Still a lot of uncertainty

Still a lot of uncertainty

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2021

It seems like global financial markets and economies are experiencing a neverending fluctuation between increased clarity, as we described in last months’ Allocation Views, and continued uncertainty. Depending on …

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