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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔08:41, 19.Jan 2022

Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since

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The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?

The Reincarnation of Fossil Fuels?

🕔15:14, 17.Jan 2022

If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others. In January, we focus on issues we think you should worry most about as we enter

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Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 14.Jan 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

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EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

EM inflation elevated, but still relatively contained

🕔10:52, 12.Jan 2022

The gap between emerging market (EM) inflation over developed market (DM) inflation has remained contained this time, in part due to weak economic conditions, muted domestic credit creation and proactive EM central banks. Tighter EM financial conditions should anchor longer

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Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

Investing amidst the inflection in the fed policy cycle

🕔08:02, 11.Jan 2022

Key points The surge in inflation in 2021 combined with the sharp fall in unemployment leaves two of the US Federal Reserve’s key policy objectives within reach as the year comes to a close. Moreover, with US housing prices rising

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Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

Central banks: a successful hawkish turn

🕔16:34, 10.Jan 2022

Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the

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Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022

🕔12:16, 7.Jan 2022

High inflation could persist in 2022, but we’re not returning to the 1970s Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it. For the past 30 years, investors in developed markets

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The resilience of ABS under inflation scenarios

The resilience of ABS under inflation scenarios

🕔12:06, 6.Jan 2022

As market fears about inflation and potential central bank actions grow, we show why European asset-backed securities (ABS) tick some important boxes for investors seeking attractive yields, relatively stable returns, and limited sensitivity to interest rates. Before the pandemic spooked

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Reflation: Endgame

Reflation: Endgame

🕔16:09, 4.Jan 2022

These superheroes all contribute in their own way to a rise in prices, wages, economic growth and asset prices. See inside cover for details. In this year’s Outlook, we look at the consequences of reflation for equity markets that are

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Thriving in a new market regime

Thriving in a new market regime

🕔13:38, 4.Jan 2022

BII Global outlook We are entering a new market regime unlike any in the past half century: We see another year of positive equity returns coupled with a down year for bonds. The powerful restart of economic activity will be

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2022 Outlook: It hinges on putting inflation back in the bottle

2022 Outlook: It hinges on putting inflation back in the bottle

🕔14:29, 31.Dec 2021

Another good year for investment returns ahead, if inflation trends downward Enormous fiscal stimulus, funded by monetary policy, and pandemic induced supply-side challenges pushed inflation to its highest level in nearly 40 years. This poses risk to cycle longevity and

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Gain clarity in 2022: A backdrop of changing monetary policy

Gain clarity in 2022: A backdrop of changing monetary policy

🕔10:56, 30.Dec 2021

Inflation and supply chain headwinds are expected to ease as the year progresses. And reopening trade will present select opportunities. As economies transition to recovery from the onset of the pandemic, there will be changes and challenges. Without accommodative monetary

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Inflatie – Terug naar normaal?

Inflatie – Terug naar normaal?

🕔12:13, 28.Dec 2021

Als er één economisch onderwerp de krantenkoppen beheerst, dan is het wel inflatie. De media staan er vol van. En terecht. We moeten terug naar begin jaren tachtig om soortgelijke hoge percentages te zien. In dit artikel zullen we ingaan

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What’s Hot – Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to natural gas prices

What’s Hot – Geopolitical tensions lend a tailwind to natural gas prices

🕔14:06, 27.Dec 2021

Natural gas prices have declined sharply by 32.8%1 over the prior month. As we discussed here, market price action had run ahead of its underlying fundamentals. A combination of expectations of a warmer than usual winter period in North America

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Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

Positions: the equity beta of the portfolio was increased

🕔16:52, 22.Dec 2021

Multi-asset market outlook  While inflation in the US hit a new high in November, stagflationary fears have substantially eased. The pick-up in economic momentum visible in the employment numbers and the purchasing manager’s survey have both eased growth concerns. Of

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What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

What went up…must come down (hopefully)!

🕔11:48, 22.Dec 2021

I wonder if anyone at the start of the year would have predicted that US inflation would have risen to 6.8% y/y in November? If we had expected this, you would have thought that bond yields would have traded at

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Slower. But still pretty fast

Slower. But still pretty fast

🕔16:49, 21.Dec 2021

Recovery, risks and relationships Looking back over the last couple of years, it seems that while so much in our world has changed, much has remained the same. Yet we’ve learned a few lessons along the way. We seem to

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Shooting the rapids

Shooting the rapids

🕔15:07, 21.Dec 2021

Our macroeconomics and markets sections highlight that: While some production constraints will remain well into 2022, they will be resolved eventually, enabling economies to revert to trend growth rates without generating higher inflation. Substantial accumulated household savings mean consumers have

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2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

2022 Outlook: The recovery continues in the near term

🕔16:25, 16.Dec 2021

From pandemic to endemic  IN SHORT Although lower than in 2021, we expect growth to remain above its long-term target Inflation should broadly subside over the course of next year as supply-demand mismatches get resolved and labour market tightness eases

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An unbalanced recovery

An unbalanced recovery

🕔16:07, 15.Dec 2021

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint December 2021 After a surge in activity in the first half of the year the world economy hit an air pocket in the third quarter. Bottlenecks in supply chains meant that delivery times soared and firms

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Inflation: No time to panic

Inflation: No time to panic

🕔14:36, 15.Dec 2021

Interest rates have been historically low for more than a decade, dampened by the flood of monetary stimulus introduced in the wake of the global financial crisis. In 2022 we expect this to change. As we move towards economic recovery

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Negative real rates continue to support equities

Negative real rates continue to support equities

🕔12:09, 13.Dec 2021

We believe that inflation prints will continue to come out high for some time. The gap between production and consumer price indices has widened, particularly in Europe, and supply chain disruptions have not peaked yet. Business leaders are becomingincreasingly wary

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Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔08:22, 10.Dec 2021

Positive but slower global growth is meeting with greater inflation pressures   The global economy maintained its Growth potential is on track to outpace pre-pandemic times positive overall trajectory, though economic indicators grew more mixed. Returns across fixed income were mostly

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European Secular Outlook: The Prospect of More Stability

European Secular Outlook: The Prospect of More Stability

🕔11:02, 8.Dec 2021

The COVID-19 crisis spurs cohesion, but fresh challenges await The economic shock of COVID-19 and mounting concerns over climate change have fostered improved coordination among European policymakers. We believe this has reduced left tail risks and set the stage for

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Inflation winds blowing.

Inflation winds blowing.

🕔10:18, 7.Dec 2021

Real Estate Outlook – Edition 4, 2021: The global economy slowed in the third quarter, hit by a combination of supply chain constraints and the Delta variant of COVID-19. Business surveys reported that manufacturing production is lagging behind orders as

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Hot inflation data cool equity markets

Hot inflation data cool equity markets

🕔14:17, 1.Dec 2021

Hotter-than-expected inflation data took its toll on equity indexes within developed markets last week. Notably, the S&P 500 fell -0.3%, ending its streak of five weekly consecutive gains. The DJIA and tech-heavy NASDAQ fell -0.6% and -0.7%, respectively. The MSCI

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Liftoff? EM has already taken off

Liftoff? EM has already taken off

🕔14:12, 29.Nov 2021

As U.S. inflation is hitting three-decade highs, market talk has been all about “liftoff:” When will the Federal Reserve and others start raising their policy rates? This is old news in emerging markets (EMs), where many countries have already raised

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Inflation protection — Hope for the best, but build robust portfolios

Inflation protection — Hope for the best, but build robust portfolios

🕔09:05, 22.Nov 2021

Building a robust portfolio has gotten tougher The last two years have been full of extraordinary challenges. Following the outbreak of the pandemic, the lockdowns and restrictions imposed by governments around the globe hit economies and markets hard and fast.

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The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns

The Great Inflation, Factors, and Stock Returns

🕔08:17, 22.Nov 2021

“Inflation is as violent as a mugger, as frightening as an armed robber and as deadly as a hit man.” — Ronald Reagan Inflation is an amorphous concept that generally refers to the sustained increase in the general level of

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Hoe korter hoe beter

Hoe korter hoe beter

🕔11:34, 16.Nov 2021

Waarom beleggers in vastrentende waarden die zich zorgen maken over inflatie en stijgende rendementen, moeten overwegen om over te stappen op kortlopende obligaties. Moeten beleggers zich zorgen maken over de inflatie? Er zijn zeker redenen tot bezorgdheid. De knelpunten in

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Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

🕔10:47, 15.Nov 2021

Like it or not, the alignment of the planets regarding inflation will last for a while. October saw the recognition of a more permanent than expected inflation, with the IMF officially stating that we are entering a phase of inflationary

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Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

🕔16:11, 10.Nov 2021

Hoewel de inflatiedruk de obligatierente zal doen stijgen, zou een gezonde stijging van de bedrijfswinsten aandelen moeten ondersteunen. De wereldwijde financiële markten hebben het moeilijk. De monetaire voorwaarden worden strenger terwijl knelpunten in de toeleveringsketen hun tol beginnen te eisen

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On corporate margins and inflation rates

On corporate margins and inflation rates

🕔16:14, 4.Nov 2021

The sharp rise in inflation rates across many economies driven by supply chain issues and labour shortages has been a major concern for investors as economies opened up after pandemicrelated lockdowns. Among other effects, this may have an impact on

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Inflation – The case for CDS indices to play the inflation theme

Inflation – The case for CDS indices to play the inflation theme

🕔12:05, 4.Nov 2021

Podcast: Inflation has come to the forefront recently. In that respect, senior loans – also known as bank loans or leveraged loans – are drawing interest from investors looking for an income solution with … Access the content here: For

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Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

Europe: 6 reasons for higher inflation and faster growth

🕔10:17, 4.Nov 2021

Against the spectre of soaring energy prices, labour shortages and supply chain constraints, a question that has arisen in the US has landed firmly on European shores: will inflation continue to rise and how persistent will it be? The prevailing

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Currency Market Commentary – September 2021

Currency Market Commentary – September 2021

🕔14:01, 2.Nov 2021

Currency markets are caught in the crosswinds of slower growth, higher yields/inflation and higher equity market volatility with USD as the clear beneficiary of these forces. Softer growth and shaky equity markets tend to benefit the traditional safe haven currencies

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A tricky transition

A tricky transition

🕔16:38, 1.Nov 2021

Equity Outlook – October 2021: Equity markets are finding the transition to the post-pandemic landscape more challenging than one might have expected. While the Covid-19 pandemic is certainly not over, infection rates have been falling in most countries and high

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Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

Markets in quicksand: inflationary risks persist

🕔15:26, 1.Nov 2021

Like it or not, the alignment of the planets regarding inflation will last for a while. October saw the recognition of a more permanent than expected inflation, with the IMF officially stating that we are entering a phase of inflationary

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The Red Dragon Is Breathing Fire. Will the Rest of World Get Roasted?

The Red Dragon Is Breathing Fire. Will the Rest of World Get Roasted?

🕔10:40, 20.Oct 2021

Voya Multi-Asset Perspectives Multiple forces conspired to reduce the outlook for U.S. and global growth over the last three months. Equity market pricing reset lower in September, as Covid continued to confound health experts and frustrate those anxious to resume

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Debt ceiling spat takes a breather

Debt ceiling spat takes a breather

🕔14:25, 18.Oct 2021

BII Global weekly commentary We believe the debt ceiling dispute will eventually resolve but could trigger more volatility. The broadening economic restart keeps us tactically pro-risk. U.S. job growth slowed sharply in September, but we see it as unlikely to

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With growth and policy, which matters more: Level or change?

With growth and policy, which matters more: Level or change?

🕔14:18, 16.Oct 2021

Asset Allocation Fourth Quarter 2021 KEY POINTS The level of growth and the level of policy support remain supportive but have declined marginally, leaving us pro-risk still but less so. Within equities, we prefer Europe, where economic fundamentals are improving and

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Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

Hout: duurzame én innovatieve belegging

🕔13:55, 15.Oct 2021

Zowel het momentum als de vooruitzichten op lange termijn zijn gunstig voor beleggingen in de brede waardeketen rond hout. Van de aanplanting van bossen tot de verwerking van hout tot enkele van de meest innovatieve materialen.  De Timber-strategie van Pictet

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Inflation, no time to die

Inflation, no time to die

🕔21:08, 13.Oct 2021

IN SHORT Inflation concerns have picked up again as price pressures mount. Talks regarding tapering continue to intensify. Yields have surged globally following the more hawkish tone of central banks and questions regarding the transitory nature of inflation. Equity markets

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Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of  higher higher inflation

Adapting equity portfolios to a regime of higher higher inflation

🕔08:49, 13.Oct 2021

The return of inflation is clearly one of the top themes of 2021 and the post-pandemic economic revival. In addition to the temporary effects associated with supply chain bottlenecks (semiconductors, energy, copper, etc.) during a sudden upturn, there is the

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Mounting risks, buying time

Mounting risks, buying time

🕔17:10, 11.Oct 2021

CIO Views Markets responded to mixed data from the US and China and to the potential tapering from central banks. We are also seeing inflation (energy and food) and a deceleration in China. As a result, while staying neutral on

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A transitory change in correlation

A transitory change in correlation

🕔14:30, 11.Oct 2021

Uncommon truths: Rising bond yields have recently been associated with falling equity prices (reversing the trend of this century). We think this is a temporary reversal and do not fear higher yields, unless caused by costpush inflation (we would then

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Why Are Gas Prices So High?

Why Are Gas Prices So High?

🕔09:50, 9.Oct 2021

In October 2019, the OIES published a Comment entitled ‘$2 gas in Europe’, 1 which turned into a series of papers with similar titles. 2, 3 The first paper suggested that 2020 could see gas prices in Europe below $3

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For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

For our 12-month outlook we remain cautiously optimistic

🕔10:36, 30.Sep 2021

August was friendly, which it often hasn’t been in the past. In bonds, little happened overall. Government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds showed a slightly negative total return, while the high-yield segment, as well as Asian bonds, just made it

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An uneasy truce

An uneasy truce

🕔16:21, 28.Sep 2021

The past month has seen geopolitics move back into the headlines as the United States and its allies made a final withdrawal from Afghanistan. Reflecting on the often messy resolution of military conflicts over the ages, the concept …

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Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

Commercial Real Estate Investors Revisit Inflation

🕔12:47, 24.Sep 2021

Investors cite inflation hedging power as one of the primary attractions of property investments.2 This characteristic has been of limited use in recent years given the very low pace of inflation in the US and throughout most developed global markets

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