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Options Markets Still Sniffing Inflation

Options Markets Still Sniffing Inflation

🕔09:30, 1.okt 2019

Similar to last month, signals based on options market pricing continue to sound the alarm that we shouldn’t be so fast in writing off inflation risk. We see a greater risk of inflation moving higher than lower. While official price

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Living With Deflation…

Living With Deflation…

🕔10:58, 30.sep 2019

After a decade, central banks that are still not getting the inflation they crave are reverting to the tools that failed them. QE’s boost to asset prices has become counterproductive – widening disparities, stuttering demand, and stymying inflation. With central

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Modern Monetary Theory: are defcit hawks an endangered species?

Modern Monetary Theory: are defcit hawks an endangered species?

🕔15:32, 25.sep 2019

A once-fringe economic theory has been embraced by liberal politicians at the same time as traditional budget hawks have been in retreat. Its rise has potentially radical implications for infation and investors Decades into an era of declining infation and

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Spotlight on inflation linked gilts

Spotlight on inflation linked gilts

🕔08:46, 25.sep 2019

Fixed income markets contain a high proportion of investors whose goal of identifying the most attractive relative value is subverted by jurisdictional or self-imposed rules, regulations, and constraints, or is superseded by other non-economic objectives, such as accounting conventions. The

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Lower growth, higher inflation

Lower growth, higher inflation

🕔10:50, 18.sep 2019

Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions

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The Phillips Curve at the ECB

The Phillips Curve at the ECB

🕔12:06, 5.sep 2019

The structural Phillips Curve is a useful framework Slack in the economy, inflation expectations and markups are key determinants of inflation Using cross-country variation or external instruments are promising routes to identify the Phillips Curve slope Reduced-form empirical relation between

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Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

🕔17:47, 16.aug 2019

With 2 ½ months left until Mario Draghi steps down as ECB chief, what will be his legacy? On the one hand, he will be forever remembered for those three words “whatever it takes”, which many people credit for having

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The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

🕔18:04, 14.aug 2019

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each

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Update on economic and monetary developments

Update on economic and monetary developments

🕔12:01, 9.aug 2019

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5 / 2019 Incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting in early June indicates that, while further employment gains and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the economy, softening global growth dynamics and

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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) – Third quarter of 2019

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) – Third quarter of 2019

🕔10:41, 29.jul 2019

The results of the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2019 show HICP inflation expectations of 1.3%, 1.4% and 1.5% for 2019, 2020 and 2021, respectively.1 This represents downward revisions of 0.1 percentage points for

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Real Assets Outlook

Real Assets Outlook

🕔17:53, 26.jul 2019

Real Assets Outlook Deflation concerns weigh more on the minds of investors than inflation Inflation fears have been subdued in the market over the past year. Both core CPI and headline CPI have been declining over the past nine months

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Is it time to buy inflation breakevens?

Is it time to buy inflation breakevens?

🕔16:39, 23.jul 2019

Key points: Performance for inflation-linked bonds has been positive since the start of the year Compared to the current inflation rate, breakevens are trading at a depressed level   Beyond oil prices, stabilisation in economic growth outlook could boost inflation

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Coffee Break

Coffee Break

🕔10:42, 17.jul 2019

COFFEE BREAK 15-7-2019 De voorbije week in een notendop: – In zijn zesmaandelijkse getuigenis aan het Huis van Afgevaardigden, herhaalde Jerome Powell dat de centrale bank op de passende manier zou optreden, omdat er 'tegenkrachten' zijn die inwerken op de

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Inflation Signals Holding Up

Inflation Signals Holding Up

🕔13:05, 16.jul 2019

Tell Tail Signs Consistent with signals of the last two months, we see mild inflationary pressures emerging. Until April and May, our forward‑looking options-based measures had been showing no signs of inflation. But we are starting to see clues of

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Strategist’s Corner: There is Inflation…If You Look Hard Enough

Strategist’s Corner: There is Inflation…If You Look Hard Enough

🕔15:03, 11.jul 2019

Central banks are losing their inflation anchors, as prices rise more slowly than desired. However, one idiosyncratic pocket of inflation is the skyrocketing price for pork, which could impact prices for other meat sources. As a result, certain restaurant categories

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Logistics: retailers’ new front office

Logistics: retailers’ new front office

🕔02:02, 10.jul 2019

The consumer has taken power in the retail industry which has put retailers on the backfoot and caused a structural rethink of the traditional business model. Omni-channel retail1 has emerged as the likely winning model. It requires a seamless supply

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Global weekly commentary

Global weekly commentary

🕔14:01, 9.jul 2019

Weekly commentary Key points 1 We downgrade our growth outlook and prefer a modestly more defensive investing stance amid rising macro uncertainty. 2 Global stocks rose last week, with the U.S. benchmark marching to a new record. Global bond yields

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Disappointing growth, low inflation and political uncertainty push central banks into action

Disappointing growth, low inflation and political uncertainty push central banks into action

🕔11:02, 9.jul 2019

Macro Economic Update Global growth currently hovers around 2.5% with confidence indicators pointing to still slower economic gains in the near future. Manufacturing continues to feel the burn with new orders contracting at the fasted pace in almost seven years.

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What’s up with inflation?

What’s up with inflation?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…

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No more patience?

No more patience?

🕔15:00, 27.jun 2019

Last month, we argued that it was all going to be about politics from now onwards. And indeed, May and June have not been short of unexpected political developments – and tweets. However, mixed economic data has also raised new

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Turkey: inflation, exchange rate’s pass-through and monetary policy

Turkey: inflation, exchange rate’s pass-through and monetary policy

🕔15:00, 26.jun 2019

Thematic paper Despite a huge collapse in activity, the Turkish inflation is still flirting with 20% yoy and the main monetary policy rate is stuck at 24% for 8 months. Since the beginning of the year, fiscal policy has been

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The risk of too little inflation

The risk of too little inflation

🕔07:02, 25.jun 2019

Low inflation may sound appealing, but as Russ explains, it has drawbacks for investors. By any account the U.S. equity market is having a stellar year. Stocks have benefited from easier financial conditions, which have in turn pushed up market

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State Street – Getting Ready for Second Half!

🕔12:00, 18.jun 2019

We willen u graag uitnodigen voor een middag waarin specialisten van verschillende onderdelen binnen State Street u bijpraten over de macro-economie, positionering van beleggers en real-time inflatiedata. Daarnaast komen ook de trends in de ETF markt en het beheren van

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2 ND QUARTER 2019 Investment Landscape

2 ND QUARTER 2019 Investment Landscape

🕔11:02, 17.jun 2019

Recent Verus research A neutral risk stance may be appropriate in today’s environment All major asset classes delivered positive performance in  Q1, a refreshing change of pace from broad‐based losses  experienced in 2018. p. 46 Economic conditions around the world have exhibited a  weakening trend, leading to the question of whether a turn  in the economic cycle is near. The first quarter was more  mixed with strength in places, easing some concern. We  remain watchful of this weakening trend, but believe the  economy and market may have more room to run. p. 17

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Applied philosophy

Applied philosophy

🕔19:02, 23.mei 2019

Pause for thought  Market sentiment at the beginning of this year stands in stark contrast to that of a year ago. Last year markets worried less about growth and more about inflation but this reversed as the year progressed. The

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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