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Equities continue to rise on risk-on sentiment

Equities continue to rise on risk-on sentiment

🕔14:37, 23.jan 2020

U.S. equities rose for a second consecutive week, with the S&P 500 Index advancing close to 2%. 1 The signing of the U.S./China phase-one trade deal and the ratification of the USMCA trade agreement seems to have removed some significant

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Stabilization amid heightened uncertainties

Stabilization amid heightened uncertainties

🕔14:45, 21.jan 2020

Allocation views – Perspective from Franklin Templeton Multi Asset Solutions The new year started with a bout of volatility, driven by tensions in the Middle East. US forces assassinated General Qassem Soleimani, leader of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps, which grabbed headlines and

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New information on Strategy Review?

New information on Strategy Review?

🕔15:10, 20.jan 2020

Week Ahead The ECB’s Governing Council will meet next week. Both the meeting and the following press conference by President Lagarde should be uneventful. In any case, monetary policy is not at issue. New indications regarding the course of the

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20/20-zicht op 2020?

20/20-zicht op 2020?

🕔15:29, 17.jan 2020

De standaard voor opticiens in de Verenigde Staten is een 20/20-zicht (20/20 vision). Dat geeft aan wat een "normaal" mens zonder oogafwijkingen zou moeten kunnen zien als hij 20 voet van een oogkaart staat. Een 20/20-zicht betekent dat een mens

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Inflation climbing up

Inflation climbing up

🕔07:10, 15.jan 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week in CEE Throughout the week, we will keep seeing inflation rate figures across CEE countries. In Hungary and Romania, we expect the headline number to land at 4.0% y/y in December, marking a visible increase

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2020 appears tilted to the downside

2020 appears tilted to the downside

🕔07:00, 7.jan 2020

Major themes driving our views Slower global growth remains a concern Growth momentum is negative, but the consumer remains resilient. Trade disputes are only a symptom of broader, potentially longer-term, tension between the United States and China. With profit margins

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The case for inflation-linked bonds

The case for inflation-linked bonds

🕔16:06, 6.jan 2020

Mike explains why we favor inflation-linked bonds in both tactical and strategic portfolios. We view inflation risks as underappreciated for 2020 – and beyond. Our base case is for modestly higher U.S. inflation this year, with a risk of upside

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U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

U.S. Inflation: The Undercurrents of Seemingly Calm Inflation

🕔15:45, 11.dec 2019

Competing dynamics have kept U.S. inflation largely stable, but the balance may be shifting After the turbulence of the 1970s and early 1980s, U.S. inflation entered a remarkably stable period that has persisted for the past three decades. As Figure

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CEE Market Insights – Inflation on the rise

CEE Market Insights – Inflation on the rise

🕔11:05, 11.dec 2019

November’s inflation rate will be published in most of the CEE countries and we expect it to rise everywhere. In Poland, an increase to 2.6% y/y should be confirmed, on the back of dynamic growth of food prices. The same

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Stronger construction activity and a pick-up in external demand

Stronger construction activity and a pick-up in external demand

🕔13:59, 10.dec 2019

Charting China Monthly Review What happened in the past month? External demand showed early signs of recovery; domestic construction activity growth came in stronger than expected. Nov MTD IPP coal consumption growth remained high at 15.8% YoY despite a warmer Nov this year.

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2020 Outlook – Optimistic, but limited upside

2020 Outlook – Optimistic, but limited upside

🕔13:24, 7.dec 2019

Geopolitical détente reduces uncertainty Our outlook for 2020 is relatively optimistic, predicated on the ongoing improvement in recent geopolitical developments – or at least a lack of deterioration thereof. In our view, the US-China trade war remains the single most

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Quantitative easing: the end of the road for pension investors?

Quantitative easing: the end of the road for pension investors?

🕔13:57, 5.dec 2019

The 2019 edition of the Amundi–CREATE Research survey provides a key independent assessment of the challenges faced by pension plans in a post-QE environment. So severe was the 2008 global financial crisis that central banks could only stave off a

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Global growth upgraded as the cycle extends

Global growth upgraded as the cycle extends

🕔16:44, 4.dec 2019

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint December 2019 “We're in the final throes of a very important deal… it's going very well.” President Trump on the US-China trade talks, 26 November, Bloomberg. ​ We are upgrading our global growth forecasts in response to

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Policy easing stepped up as economic weakness extends

Policy easing stepped up as economic weakness extends

🕔13:01, 8.nov 2019

Global Snapshot US Fed divisions The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee cut the Fed funds target rate by half a percentage point during Q3 but members were divided on the prospect of a further reduction. Core inflation rose to 1.8%

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Core Matters

Core Matters

🕔12:11, 7.nov 2019

Investment Returns: A 5-year perspective Macro & Market Research 2019 has seen huge inflows into Fixed Income (FI) funds and outflows from Equities. From a medium-term return perspective this makes no sense. The formidable demand for safe assets reflects cyclical and structural

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Should Investors Continue to Ignore Inflation?

Should Investors Continue to Ignore Inflation?

🕔09:44, 29.okt 2019

How the path of inflation will impact fixed income markets Global growth is approaching an inflection point; either the slowdown becomes entrenched and leads to a recession, or the cycle gets extended as interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus start

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Options Markets Still Sniffing Inflation

Options Markets Still Sniffing Inflation

🕔09:30, 1.okt 2019

Similar to last month, signals based on options market pricing continue to sound the alarm that we shouldn’t be so fast in writing off inflation risk. We see a greater risk of inflation moving higher than lower. While official price

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Living With Deflation…

Living With Deflation…

🕔10:58, 30.sep 2019

After a decade, central banks that are still not getting the inflation they crave are reverting to the tools that failed them. QE’s boost to asset prices has become counterproductive – widening disparities, stuttering demand, and stymying inflation. With central

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Modern Monetary Theory: are defcit hawks an endangered species?

Modern Monetary Theory: are defcit hawks an endangered species?

🕔15:32, 25.sep 2019

A once-fringe economic theory has been embraced by liberal politicians at the same time as traditional budget hawks have been in retreat. Its rise has potentially radical implications for infation and investors Decades into an era of declining infation and

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Spotlight on inflation linked gilts

Spotlight on inflation linked gilts

🕔08:46, 25.sep 2019

Fixed income markets contain a high proportion of investors whose goal of identifying the most attractive relative value is subverted by jurisdictional or self-imposed rules, regulations, and constraints, or is superseded by other non-economic objectives, such as accounting conventions. The

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Lower growth, higher inflation

Lower growth, higher inflation

🕔10:50, 18.sep 2019

Markets breathed a sigh of relief last week on signs of easing U.S.-China trade tensions. We see ongoing policy support, the absence of obvious financial system vulnerabilities and resilient consumer spending helping extend the U.S. economic expansion. Yet trade tensions

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The Phillips Curve at the ECB

The Phillips Curve at the ECB

🕔12:06, 5.sep 2019

The structural Phillips Curve is a useful framework Slack in the economy, inflation expectations and markups are key determinants of inflation Using cross-country variation or external instruments are promising routes to identify the Phillips Curve slope Reduced-form empirical relation between

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Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

Draghi determined to lift inflation — but how?

🕔17:47, 16.aug 2019

With 2 ½ months left until Mario Draghi steps down as ECB chief, what will be his legacy? On the one hand, he will be forever remembered for those three words “whatever it takes”, which many people credit for having

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The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

The Fiscal Roots of Inflation

🕔18:04, 14.aug 2019

Unexpected inflation devalues nominal government bonds. It must therefore correspond to a decline in expected future surpluses, or a rise in their discount rates, so that the real value of debt equals the present value of surpluses. I measure each

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Update on economic and monetary developments

Update on economic and monetary developments

🕔12:01, 9.aug 2019

ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5 / 2019 Incoming information since the last Governing Council meeting in early June indicates that, while further employment gains and increasing wages continue to underpin the resilience of the economy, softening global growth dynamics and

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#1 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts #GMO

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#3 What the heart already knew @TriodosIM @TriodosNL

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Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM

Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG

The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA

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