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Tag "inflation"

ECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023

ECB in Pole Position to Over-Tighten in 2023

🕔08:24, 7.Feb 2023

A central narrative of 2022 was that central banks, including the European Central bank (ECB), were “behind the curve”. As a result, eurozone inflation rose to levels not seen for decades, eroding living …

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The economy in 2023: Where we differ from market consensus

The economy in 2023: Where we differ from market consensus

🕔11:05, 30.Jan 2023

Jared Franz, for example, says the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, yet when the economy recovers, it will be stronger than prior rebounds. Meanwhile, Robert Lind argues that European policymakers will likely run looser fiscal policies and tolerate

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“What should be” versus “What is likely to happen”

“What should be” versus “What is likely to happen”

🕔09:05, 30.Jan 2023

China Market Outlook 2023 KEY INSIGHTS Since the Party Congress, China has announced a significant easing in its zero-COVID restrictions and more measures to stabilize residential property, which is encouraging. China is at a different stage of its business cycle

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Recession looms for 2023

Recession looms for 2023

🕔08:24, 26.Jan 2023

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole.

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Paying the price for our lack of resilience

Paying the price for our lack of resilience

🕔13:49, 25.Jan 2023

Advanced Economies Outlook 2023 The outlook for 2023 is bleak. The multitude of crises have exposed the weaknesses of our economic system, culminating in record-high inflation across advanced economies. Though inflation is set to fall, there will be no early

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EMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows when they resume

EMs with stronger fundamentals should see inflows when they resume

🕔10:03, 25.Jan 2023

The global environment led to sharp outflows from EM debt markets in 2022. The rise in US interest rates (and increase in EM inflation), combined with the increase in general risk premium, reduced the relative attractiveness of EM debt …

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Alternatives under the microscope 2022

Alternatives under the microscope 2022

🕔16:05, 23.Jan 2023

Most assets struggled in 2022. Among alternatives, commodity related categories were at the top of asset rankings (again), while cryptocurrencies and private equity were at the bottom. We expect falling inflation to pave the way for better outcomes …

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The Year of the Bond

The Year of the Bond

🕔07:30, 18.Jan 2023

The year 2022 proved to be a year of a great reset for fixed income aficionados. Bond prices are sharply lower and yields are meaningfully higher. Following a nearly 15 year period of ultra-low interest rates that starved pensions and

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Global Strategy 1Q 2023

Global Strategy 1Q 2023

🕔16:40, 10.Jan 2023

High inflation and increased interest rates should lead to only weak GDP growth. Central banks have not yet completed the cycle of interest rate hikes and geopolitical uncertainty could lead to increased volatility in financial markets for some time. We

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The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2023

The Aristotle List: 10 improbable but possible outcomes for 2023

🕔14:48, 10.Jan 2023

It is time to forget central scenarios and think about improbable but possible outcomes. Markets remain volatile, so our list of surprises errs to the positive (these hypothetical predictions are our views of what could happen even if they do

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Looking Ahead to 2023

Looking Ahead to 2023

🕔12:48, 9.Jan 2023

End and Beginning of an Earnings Cycle In brief: Decelerating inflation should provide a tailwind for high quality bonds but will likely bring the earnings cycle to an end for most companies. Companies with uncompetitive products or services facing elevated

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2023 Natixis Institutional Outlook Survey

2023 Natixis Institutional Outlook Survey

🕔08:13, 9.Jan 2023

After the Gold Rush Institutional investors forced to dig deep for opportunity as they brace for inflation or stagflation in post-pandemic markets. After seeming to recover from the pandemic in 2021, the global economy relapsed into what may be classified as a

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Cross asset investment strategy

Cross asset investment strategy

🕔20:29, 7.Jan 2023

Central & alternative scenarios (12 to 18 months horizon) Monthly update We maintain the probabilities of our scenarios unchanged. Some of the risk factors we identify may occur in our central scenario, which is probably not yet fully priced-in by

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Systematic Fixed Income Outlook

Systematic Fixed Income Outlook

🕔08:54, 3.Jan 2023

Peak inflation appears to have arrived. What’s next? The central bank narrative has shifted from a focus on the pace of tightening to the terminal rate required to bring inflation back down to the targeted level. Throughout 2022, expectations for

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Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q3 2022

Asset Class Returns Forecasts Q3 2022

🕔12:26, 30.Dec 2022

A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term. There is a

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History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation?

History Lessons: How “Transitory” Is Inflation?

🕔12:00, 27.Dec 2022

Bad news: History tells us that once the inflation genie is out of the bottle, it can take far longer to return to normal levels than most people realize. Indeed, when Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volker took office in 1979,

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Why natural capital now?

Why natural capital now?

🕔09:48, 8.Dec 2022

Institutional investors are increasingly turning to natural capital investments (NCI) for inflation protection, diversification benefits, stable returns, and solutions to global environmental challenges. The combination of low volatility of investment returns and a competitive historical performance allows natural capital investments

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The peaking of Eurozone inflation

The peaking of Eurozone inflation

🕔11:59, 6.Dec 2022

Unusually, inflation in the Eurozone is well above that of the US. We believe that two important factors, dollar and European gas price strength, are already fading. Hence, we think Eurozone inflation may have peaked and expect it to fall

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Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

Wage Growth in Europe: Evidence From Job Ads

🕔12:28, 5.Dec 2022

Faced with the risk of persistently high inflation, both the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England increased their main policy rates substantially in 2022. Policymakers have signalled that more increases are coming. To calibrate the scale and

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Recession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks

Recession watch: triggers, outlook and what next for central banks

🕔10:05, 2.Dec 2022

While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact. Rather than forecasting exactly when global markets might fall into recession this time, the following

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Inflation and the correlation conundrum

Inflation and the correlation conundrum

🕔16:15, 1.Dec 2022

Why it’s time to look at liquid alternatives in a new light: The current market environment has not been kind to traditional multi-asset portfolios, with bonds providing little offset in an equity market brought down by rising interest rates. Central

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Embracing Change

Embracing Change

🕔10:45, 25.Nov 2022

Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,

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Where does inflation go from here?

Where does inflation go from here?

🕔14:48, 15.Nov 2022

Financial markets rebounded strongly after October’s US consumer price print surprised to the downside. We would not put too much emphasis on one month’s data and would await confirmation before sounding the all-clear. Nevertheless, we think inflation will remain an

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Emerging market debt: an active approach

Emerging market debt: an active approach

🕔08:20, 12.Nov 2022

Emerging market debt (EMD) has already broadened and deepened significantly in the last few decades and as the asset class has developed, it has become more appealing to a broader investor base. Issuance has increased, thereby improving liquidity. Yield curves

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How long might the dollar rally last?

How long might the dollar rally last?

🕔12:06, 5.Nov 2022

A rapid shift in the outlook for the global economy – punctuated by soaring inflation, Europe’s deepening woes and increasing fears of a worldwide recession – is having an enormous impact on currency markets. The US dollar has continued to climb

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Equity investing in an inflationary environment

Equity investing in an inflationary environment

🕔10:02, 28.Oct 2022

After a long hiatus, the resurgence of inflation has become a key concern for investors over the past year. Central banks are moving towards a tighter monetary stance as they seek to tame long-term inflation expectations. With falling real incomes

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Attractive opportunities remain across four key credit markets

Attractive opportunities remain across four key credit markets

🕔14:26, 25.Oct 2022

It has been a challenging year for fixed income markets in 2022 amid rising inflation and slowing global growth. While uncertainty is likely to remain elevated, today’s starting yields offer an attractive entry point for long-term investors. Yields across sectors

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Policy Pressure

Policy Pressure

🕔14:23, 25.Oct 2022

Amid sticky inflation, central banks are continuing to maintain a hawkish stance with higher peak interest rates anticipated compared to last month. Nonetheless …

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Investing in volatile times

Investing in volatile times

🕔14:47, 24.Oct 2022

The investment lexicon is currently dominated by inflation and recession. But what could these terms – so readily used by investors and their advisors – actually …

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Contained EM inflation and higher real yields suggest relative value in local markets

Contained EM inflation and higher real yields suggest relative value in local markets

🕔08:30, 21.Oct 2022

The recent surge in commodity prices has amplified the acceleration in inflation that we have been seeing globally, arising from disruption to global supply chains caused by the pandemic. Expectations just a few months ago were that the drivers …

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Where do we find value in Emerging Market equities?

Where do we find value in Emerging Market equities?

🕔15:34, 19.Oct 2022

Emerging market equity returns have been resilient year-to-date in the face of increasing uncertainty over the global economy and rising interest rates. The region remains our preferred choice in our model asset allocation, especially if inflation peaks, which we expect

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Fall 2022 Real Estate Outlook

Fall 2022 Real Estate Outlook

🕔08:29, 18.Oct 2022

The economy was mixed over the summer with GDP contracting for a second consecutive quarter while labor markets continued to exhibit strong growth. The risks that we outlined in our Spring 2022 Outlook have become more acute, in our view,

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Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

🕔16:18, 17.Oct 2022

In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in

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Could emerging markets be more vulnerable to rising food costs?

Could emerging markets be more vulnerable to rising food costs?

🕔10:17, 17.Oct 2022

Introduction The subject of inflation has been seemingly omnipresent over the past two years as the global economy moved beyond the initial shock of a global economic shutdown into a world of supply disruptions and pent-up consumer demand. Initial conjecture

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Global listed infrastructure

Global listed infrastructure

🕔08:54, 17.Oct 2022

Driving energy transition A global pandemic, multi-billion-dollar infrastructure investment plans, rising inflation, green stimulus, and a focus on decarbonisation have seen the demand for infrastructure investments rise exponentially. While most investors immediately look to unlisted offerings, we believe they should

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Global Strategy 4Q 2022

Global Strategy 4Q 2022

🕔08:31, 12.Oct 2022

Persistently high inflation rates and a significant increase in interest rates are weighing on economic momentum and pushing up volatility on the financial markets. In addition, geopolitical tensions are in place that favour safe-haven flows. We regard the medium and

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Waarschuwing over reële rendementen voor risicovollere vastrentende waarden

Waarschuwing over reële rendementen voor risicovollere vastrentende waarden

🕔14:23, 7.Oct 2022

De ontwikkeling van de reële obligatierendementen en de break-evenrentes op inflatiebeschermde obligaties geven aan hoe de rest van de vastrentende markt zal presteren. Dat is nu bijzonder relevant. Reële rendementen zijn altijd belangrijk. Maar obligatiebeleggers besteden best extra aandacht aan

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Could emerging markets be more vulnerable to rising food costs?

Could emerging markets be more vulnerable to rising food costs?

🕔14:37, 4.Oct 2022

The subject of inflation has been seemingly omnipresent over the past two years as the global economy moved beyond the initial shock of a global economic shutdown into a world of supply disruptions and pent-up consumer demand. Initial conjecture over

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Inflation is grinding gears, looking to downshift

Inflation is grinding gears, looking to downshift

🕔12:16, 4.Oct 2022

Fixed Income Perspectives – September 2022 Inflation is likely to be the driving market force through mid-2023 at least. The August US Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers, though somewhat higher than expected, don’t change our outlook for inflation or Fed policy,

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Taking stock

Taking stock

🕔08:28, 4.Oct 2022

Balancing acts. As the Fed walks the line between curbing inflation and averting recession, anxious investors are seeking to balance the two risks. Amid the uncertainty, we believe stock selection matters more. As Q4 begins, we see …

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The Liquidity Hole Is Expanding

The Liquidity Hole Is Expanding

🕔12:03, 29.Sep 2022

At the end of last year, we described a liquidity hole that we expected would grow and envelop most assets. Last year, the fundamental conditions for assets (particularly bonds) deteriorated quickly, but asset purchases by the Fed combined with huge

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Sticking with reduced risk taking

Sticking with reduced risk taking

🕔16:45, 26.Sep 2022

BII Global weekly commentary The new regime of macro volatility is playing out with weaker growth, persistent inflation and volatile markets. We stick with our dialed-down risk stance. U.S. stocks slumped and yields surged on a renewed rise in core

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Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe

🕔12:30, 26.Sep 2022

It Fooled You Once​… Coming out of the annual Jackson Hole meeting, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech, unsurprisingly, had a strong tone reinforcing the Fed’s intention to fight inflation at any cost, a 180-degree reversal of his ‘inflation is transient’

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Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

Multi-asset investing in times of volatility

🕔12:55, 16.Sep 2022

2022 has been one of the most volatile periods in recent years for global equity and fixed income markets. The outbreak of the war in Ukraine, global supply chain disruptions, global inflationary pressures, less accommodative central banks and COVID-19 restrictions

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Credit Cracks: High Yield Fundamentals and Default Risk

Credit Cracks: High Yield Fundamentals and Default Risk

🕔09:47, 16.Sep 2022

Companies are facing a number of macro headwinds and ongoing margin pressures. While this environment can be challenging, we think many high yield companies are wellpositioned to navigate an economic slowdown given low leverage, healthy balance sheets and few near-term

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Are We Entering a New Era of  Higher Inflation?

Are We Entering a New Era of Higher Inflation?

🕔12:32, 6.Sep 2022

An Analysis of the Risign Entrenchment of Inflationary Shocks

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Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

Recessie, fragmentatie en onzekerheid

🕔08:43, 6.Sep 2022

Beleggingsnota 2023 De trefwoorden vorig jaar in de Beleggingsnota 2022 waren: COVID-19, productieverstoringen, en “peak growth”. De inflatie begon al te stijgen, maar was nog relatief beperkt (2,2% in de eurozone en 5,4% in de VS), en werd voornamelijk als

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No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

No Excuses: Plan Now for Recession

🕔16:04, 5.Sep 2022

Inflation’s Causes, Prospects, and the Fed’s Toolkit Inflation is a simple consequence of a supply/demand imbalance. If demand exceeds supply, prices rise until balance is restored. The current surge in inflation has been caused mainly by blowout spending, supply chain

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The persistence of dividend growers

The persistence of dividend growers

🕔10:39, 26.Aug 2022

The return of inflation and macroeconomic uncertainty is shaking up equity market leadership. We caught up with Grant Cambridge to discuss why including dividend growers as part of a wider portfolio could help investors dampen these risks, and how 25

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Higher Inflation, Recession more likely

Higher Inflation, Recession more likely

🕔10:34, 24.Aug 2022

Please open the 15 pgae report for more information

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