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Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

Highlights of last week: Central banks, Decarbonization and Inflation

🕔16:40, 24.Nov 2020

#47 Tomorrow our event calendar is filled with five webinars! If you have spare time tomorrow, don’t miss out on an interesting session. Furthermore, next week December starts and this month has lots of interesting webinars as well. For example,

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Fixed Income Perspectives

Fixed Income Perspectives

🕔15:09, 20.Nov 2020

Market GPS Chairman Jerome Powell recently introduced the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy with a renewed commitment to achieving an average inflation target. The policy will require allowing infl ation to run above 2% to make up for persistently missing

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Fixed Income Outlook – Q4 2020

Fixed Income Outlook – Q4 2020

🕔14:43, 20.Nov 2020

Introduction: Binary outcomes In our recent CIO Autumn Outlook, we highlighted the binary nature of the key event risks heading into the final quarter, all of which still have the scope to move markets significantly. These are the US presidential

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BNP Paribas AM – Webinar – The Great Instability: Inflation – past, present and future

🕔15:00, 19.Nov 2020

Webinar – The Great Instability: Inflation – past, present and future We are delighted to invite you to the next episode in our Great Instability virtual event series. On 19th November we will be tackling Inflation – past, present and

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Time for a new playbook on inflation and active management?

Time for a new playbook on inflation and active management?

🕔08:14, 16.Nov 2020

"…the most compelling reasons to consider the case for higher inflation are the risk of a policy error, given the new, more aggressive fiscal/ monetary policy mindset, and the risk of deglobalization driving wage pressures."

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Global Market Outlook

Global Market Outlook

🕔13:10, 9.Nov 2020

As markets continue to ponder the US Presidential election result, a surge in COVID19 cases across Europe has led to a darkening near-term outlook. How things play out in the US—from a political and virus perspective—is still uncertain, but another

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The Road Ahead

The Road Ahead

🕔07:37, 29.Oct 2020

“ In fact, Powell noted that the Fed seeks to promote its employment and inflation goals while warding off any risks to financial stability (i.e., asset bubbles) ‘that impede the stability of our goals’. “

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Het inflatievraagstuk en de overgang naar het post-covid tijdperk

Het inflatievraagstuk en de overgang naar het post-covid tijdperk

🕔08:04, 6.Oct 2020

Al drukt de covid-19 pandemie de economische groei en inflatieverwachtingen, centrale banken en overheden zetten hier steeds verdergaande stimuleringsmaatregelen tegenover. In combinatie met trends als deglobalisering, kan dit een structurele kanteling in gang zetten die de inflatie juist op een

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Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

Fed’s shift on inflation unlikely to send it higher soon

🕔15:26, 2.Oct 2020

Key takeaways Fed shifts policy to accept inflation above 2% target “for some time” Historic shift is unlikely to generate higher US inflation in the near term Key US inflation drivers not pointing to higher prices, despite COVID-19 stimulus

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Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes

Upside-Down Markets: Profits, Inflation and Equity Valuation in Fiscal Policy Regimes

🕔11:44, 30.Sep 2020

An upside-down market is a market in which good news functions as bad news and bad news functions as good news. The force that turns markets upside-down is policy. News, good or bad, triggers a countervailing policy response with effects

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Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

Stocks, Bonds, Bills, and Inflation

🕔14:58, 25.Sep 2020

Interpretive Analysis and Insights   During the last quarter of 2018, major U.S. indices plunged approximately 20% from their peaks of end of late August/early October. In 2019, they recovered and reached new highs. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial

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Greater inflation risks ahead

Greater inflation risks ahead

🕔09:38, 23.Sep 2020

Weekly commentary We see a higher inflation regime in the medium term after a decade of inflation persistently undershooting central bank targets. Three new forces are at play: rising global production cost, new central bank policy frameworks that allow for …

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Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

Asset Allocation and Alternatives – Top Five

🕔11:20, 12.Sep 2020

#37 Next week, a lot of webinars are coming up. For example, on Tuesday Jupiter AM hosts a webinar about “The Great Inflation Debate“, on Wednesday UBP hosts a webinar on “Small Caps Specialties” and on Thursday Krane Shares hosts

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Real estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world

Real estate’s role as an inflation hedge in a post-COVID world

🕔13:22, 10.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve's recent Jackson Hole Symposium has renewed attention on inflation in light of the unprecedented global fiscal and monetary policy response to the COVID-19 pandemic If inflation exceeds capital market expectations, risk assets could underperform. As such, investors

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Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

Powell at Jackson Hole: Fed Doubles Up On 2% Inflation

🕔11:07, 7.Sep 2020

The Federal Reserve today announced an important change in its framework for conducting monetary policy in order to achieve its “statutory mandate from the Congress of promoting maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.” One of the main

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Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

🕔10:08, 5.Sep 2020

#36 It was a bit quiet in webinar-world the past month, but this month our calendar is quite busy again. For example, next week Capital Group hosts a webinar called “10 investment themes for the next 10 years“. The week

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔07:39, 25.Aug 2020

Since our last forecast in May we have seen a further easing of lockdowns, particularly in Europe, and a gradual resumption of economic activity. The US has seen a second wave of outbreaks in the southern states and cases in

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The Case for (Eventual) Inflation

The Case for (Eventual) Inflation

🕔11:25, 14.Aug 2020

Most investors came of age during a persistently disinflationary environment. Given the disinflationary demand shock caused by the coronavirus pandemic, that backdrop is likely to endure for the next several years. However, the combination of massive unconventional monetary policy and

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Observations driving our outlook

Observations driving our outlook

🕔15:34, 17.Jul 2020

2020 Real Assets Outlook Coronavirus… The ongoing impact of Covid-19 on the global economy has dramatically altered our outlook on inflation, risk and asset class returns. Going into 2020, valuations for many risk assets were rich and expected returns were

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COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 2

COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 2

🕔13:26, 14.Jul 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  In the first of our two papers, we considered the debate about the impact of coronavirus on the inflation outlook and we presented the case for a subdued outlook for Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) over the coming

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COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 1

COVID-19 update: A disinflationary shock – Part 1

🕔13:09, 13.Jul 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  Of all the economic uncertainties that the COVID-19 pandemic has raised, the most confusion appears to be focused on inflation. Amidst the ambiguity over the scale of the economic …

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Monthly Must-Reads

Monthly Must-Reads

🕔09:28, 1.Jul 2020

A compilation of thought-provoking insights produced by Man Group during the month. Inflation Regime Roadmap Teun Draaisma, Ben Funnell and Henry Neville from Man Group’s DNA team study the history of inflationary regimes, and conclude that current extremes in deflation,

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Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

Inflation: persistent headwinds but a possible inflationary cocktail

🕔08:02, 11.Jun 2020

Since the beginning of the coronavirus pandemic, all eyes have been on the unfolding health catastrophe and the consequences of confinement: economies halted, exploding rates of unemployment (in particular in the United States), and rising debt levels. In this extraordinary

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Pensioen Pro – Webinar – Naar een nieuw strategisch beleggingsbeleid?

🕔13:00, 3.Jun 2020

Webinar – Naar een nieuw strategisch beleggingsbeleid? De coronacrisis stelt pensioenfondsen voor buitengewoon lastige vragen. Pensioen Pro gaat op zoek naar antwoorden in een serie interactieve live-uitzendingen. U kijkt vanuit huis (of kantoor) mee en u kunt direct reageren en

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After the Virus: A Binary World

After the Virus: A Binary World

🕔08:10, 3.Jun 2020

As the world assesses what will change after the COVID-19 pandemic, Jim Cielinski, Head of Fixed Income, introduces the questions Janus Henderson expects to be key in setting investment strategy going forward. We seek to share the insights of our

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Current opportunities in the TIPS market

Current opportunities in the TIPS market

🕔15:22, 27.May 2020

Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in

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Rebuttal to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s proposal that Emerging Markets suspend debt payments

Rebuttal to Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff’s proposal that Emerging Markets suspend debt payments

🕔14:49, 22.May 2020

Market Commentary This is not the first time that Carmen Reinhart has cried wolf. As recently as May 2018, she argued in a Bloomberg interview that rising US inflation and US rate hikes would sink EM, because “more than two-thirds

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Sentiment should brighten in May

Sentiment should brighten in May

🕔09:38, 18.May 2020

Week Ahead Focus: Eurozone PMI data, Eurozone inflation  Looking ahead to next week (May 21), a first flash estimate of PMI data for the manufacturing and service sectors in the Eurozone, Germany and France for May will be released. In

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Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

Bitcoins, central banks and inflation expectations: a variety of topics in our Top Five

🕔10:12, 16.May 2020

#20 – Top Five Best Read Research on OpinioPro And it’s Saturday again: the day for us to publish our Top Five Best Read on OpinioPro this last week. Populair tags were ‘asset allocation‘ and ‘equities‘, furthermore our event calendar

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Compass Spring 2020

Compass Spring 2020

🕔14:55, 13.May 2020

It’s been a breathtaking start to the year in capital markets. A global pandemic looks to be about to end the longest US expansion in well over a century, with a global recession now expected by many. Difficult times lie

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The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

The ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters

🕔15:50, 12.May 2020

The results of Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have to be seen in the context of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent mitigation measures. 1 Expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were

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Op weg naar een gezonde samenleving: wie gaat dat betalen?

Op weg naar een gezonde samenleving: wie gaat dat betalen?

🕔07:52, 12.May 2020

ACTIAM Perspective In Nederland begint de kritiek op de steunmaatregelen en de lockdown toe te nemen. Een teken dat de ergste coronaschok achter de rug is. We gaan ons weer druk maken over andere zaken. Over hoe bedrijven gered moeten

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Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

Will ECB prepare markets for rate cut?

🕔10:50, 28.Apr 2020

Week Ahead  Focus: ECB, Eurozone Q1GDP and Inflation, US Fed and Q1 GDP  In the current environment, central banks are not waiting for scheduled meetings to make decisions, which reduces the importance of these meetings. For example, since the last

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Slowly out of limbo

Slowly out of limbo

🕔14:54, 27.Apr 2020

Monthly Investment Strategy Key points As some capacity is being re-created in healthcare systems, exiting lockdown by mid-May looks doable. We think it will be a subdued rebound though, and economic policy will need to help “for the long haul”.

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Too Soon? Pandemic Policy Response Raises Risk of Inflation

Too Soon? Pandemic Policy Response Raises Risk of Inflation

🕔12:14, 20.Apr 2020

Now is too soon to worry about inflation from a public policy perspective given the immediate humanitarian need for disaster relief. Many millions of newly unemployed people need cash now to pay bills and just to buy food for themselves

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Guide to Alternatives

Guide to Alternatives

🕔16:53, 17.Apr 2020

Market Insights  Powerpoint by JP Morgan Asset Management

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔16:46, 17.Apr 2020

Q2 2020 The coronavirus casts a dark shadow over the world economy by threatening to derail the revival in growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show a steady improvement in

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Uncertainty and opportunity

Uncertainty and opportunity

🕔16:45, 17.Apr 2020

In this issue, we describe a framework to help us work through a sharp deterioration in market sentiment. As policymakers are called upon to provide support to the global economy, we focus on how the evolving macroeconomic backdrop is affecting

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Too Soon? Pandemic Policy Response Raises Risk of Inflation

Too Soon? Pandemic Policy Response Raises Risk of Inflation

🕔15:45, 16.Apr 2020

Now is too soon to worry about inflation from a public policy perspective given the immediate humanitarian need for disaster relief. Many millions of newly unemployed people need cash now to pay bills and just to buy food for themselves

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CEE Market Insights Inflation in CEE

CEE Market Insights Inflation in CEE

🕔09:39, 15.Apr 2020

The week after Easter brings inflation releases across the region. For all of the countries, we expect to see easing inflation numbers in March. Such a development is mostly the outcome of the low oil price. On the other hand,

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Hardnekkig lage rentes: hoe omgaan met het nieuwe normaal?

Hardnekkig lage rentes: hoe omgaan met het nieuwe normaal?

🕔07:04, 3.Apr 2020

VBA Journaal Begin september vorig jaar bereikte de rente op tienjarige Nederlandse staats obligaties een dieptepunt van -0,6%. Hierdoor kwam de lage rentestand al snel als onderwerp op onze redactie- tafel. Onze zorg was echter dat de rente bij het verschijnen

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Can the world economy “afford” this scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus?

Can the world economy “afford” this scale of fiscal and monetary stimulus?

🕔09:50, 31.Mar 2020

The measures being announced are more dramatic than they were after the Great Financial Crash The political agreement reached in the Senate on Tuesday night will probably result in a fiscal injection into the US economy worth $2 trillion, which

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Are markets too optimistic?

Are markets too optimistic?

🕔05:59, 30.Mar 2020

Focus: Markets, stimulus packages, Eurozone inflation This week brought massive gains on the stock markets and yield premiums on the interest rate markets fell for the riskier investments. Spreads on Italian government bonds also fell. The markets have thus reacted

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Viral uncertainty

Viral uncertainty

🕔09:10, 24.Mar 2020

In light of the very dynamic market environment these forecasts are subject to change at any time.

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Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

Recession in Eurozone to weigh further on CEE growth

🕔13:48, 17.Mar 2020

CEE Market Insights  This week, we will see the inflation rate in Croatia as well as labor market data. In Poland, retail sales and industrial growth in February will be published; however, the impact of the coronavirus is still likely

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Central banks at crossroads

Central banks at crossroads

🕔13:34, 4.Mar 2020

Special Report | CEE | Economy Inflation on rise in CEE, central banks get vigilant Inflation rates in CEE are currently among the highest in Europe. The series of upside surprises began in December 2019 and January repeated the pattern. Inflation

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Market fears not subsiding, despite decreasing new Covid-19 infections

Market fears not subsiding, despite decreasing new Covid-19 infections

🕔11:04, 25.Feb 2020

Focus: Covid-19 epidemic, EZ inflation The Covid-19 epidemic has probably passed its peak in China. Chinese authorities have been reporting a decrease in new infections for days. The bond markets, at least, have not yet jumped on this good news.

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Accomodating Inflation

Accomodating Inflation

🕔16:45, 24.Feb 2020

Investment Perspective 2019 turned out to be a fantastic year for risk takers, and even for those heavily invested in bonds. The regularly touted impending recession once again failed to materialize, and the U.S. Federal Reserve moved from tightening policy

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Is inflation Frozen too?

Is inflation Frozen too?

🕔08:33, 24.Feb 2020

 Should the Fed Let it Go t the end of 2019, Frozen II was released to the delight of children who had been counting down the days since the release of the original film in 2013. Their yearning for a

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Uncertainty tempers our enthusiasm

Uncertainty tempers our enthusiasm

🕔10:39, 21.Feb 2020

Allocation views  Our view of global growth has been getting more optimistic over the last few months as signs of stabilization have appeared in many economies. Areas that were notably weak, such as manufacturing in Germany, have turned up somewhat

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