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European High Yield: forward looking expectations

European High Yield: forward looking expectations

🕔08:00, 6.Dec 2022

As the world faces challenges from weakening growth, inflation and policy tightening, the good news for European High Yield investors is that the underlying strength in the asset class has been on an improving trajectory over the last two decades.

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2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

🕔14:00, 21.Nov 2022

Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a

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5-Year Expected Returns The Age Of Confusion

5-Year Expected Returns The Age Of Confusion

🕔08:27, 13.Oct 2022

The age of confusion is all about multiplicity, persistence and reflexivity In our view, we have now entered the age of confusion. Confusion because of the many moving parts that market participants have to juggle, creating larger divergences in analyst

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Long View Q2: The risk of the ‘new normal’

Long View Q2: The risk of the ‘new normal’

🕔12:34, 13.Sep 2022

In this report, we present the DWS long-term capital market assumptions for major asset classes as of the end of June 2022 while exploring the risks to these forecasts.

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How Accurate are Capital Market Assumptions, and How Should We Use Them?

How Accurate are Capital Market Assumptions, and How Should We Use Them?

🕔12:54, 10.Aug 2022

None of the preceding is meant to denigrate the process of creating capital market assumptions, which are demanded and used by institutional investors worldwide. As mentioned, firms bring enormous intellectual capital and resources together to build, and convey to investors,

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Reassessing Return Expectations: Mid-2022 Update

Reassessing Return Expectations: Mid-2022 Update

🕔10:46, 10.Aug 2022

Given the huge changes in inflation expectations and abrupt yield changes of the past six months, it seems sensible to re-assess expectations for capital market returns. Long-term investors update and review long-term strategic assumptions on a set cycle, which we

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Secular Outlook June 2022

Secular Outlook June 2022

🕔10:48, 27.Jun 2022

Overview It gives me great pleasure to introduce our ninth Secular Outlook. T he next five years will be an uphill struggle for investors. High public and corporate debt levels, labour shortages, potential tax hikes and increased levels of state

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Portfolio Insights: Introducing illiquid assets into a global multi-asset portfolio

Portfolio Insights: Introducing illiquid assets into a global multi-asset portfolio

🕔14:57, 9.May 2022

Executive Summary We demonstrate the building blocks for investors who may either be considering allocating to illiquid assets for the first time, or who want to gain a greater understanding of how much capital they should invest in illiquid assets.

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Key takeaways for the next 10 years

Key takeaways for the next 10 years

🕔16:03, 4.May 2022

2022 long-term expected returns for capital markets Balanced return: We forecast a traditional balanced fund (60% equities / 40% bonds with a home bias) to return somewhere close to 4%, or roughly 2.0% in real terms. The lower-than-historical return can

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angeles long-term capital market assumptions as of january 2022

angeles long-term capital market assumptions as of january 2022

🕔10:22, 27.Apr 2022

INTRODUCTION: This report presents Angeles Investment Advisors’ updated capital market assumptions as of January 2022. These assumptions are used in asset allocation modeling for our clients over a long-term horizon (>10 years). Versus our most recent assumptions from our 2021

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2022 Capital Markets Forecast

2022 Capital Markets Forecast

🕔08:38, 27.Apr 2022

Executive Summary “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper…. is so far different from

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2022 Capital Market Projections

2022 Capital Market Projections

🕔16:06, 25.Apr 2022

Current Market Conditions Strong performance across both growth and value strategies during 2021 2021 returns for U.S. equity markets are eye-popping: – S&P 500: +28.7% – U.S. Small Cap: +14.8% – Non-U.S. equity markets lagged: – MSCI World ex USA:

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2022 Asset Allocation Report

2022 Asset Allocation Report

🕔08:34, 25.Apr 2022

Including: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Short-Term Tactical Outlook This report presents Cliffwater recommendations for asset class return and risk (standard deviation) assumptions, intended for asset allocation studies that set long-term portfolio asset class targets. While these forward-looking or “expected” asset

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2022 Capital Market Assumptions

2022 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔10:39, 20.Apr 2022

Sellwood Consulting updates its capital markets assumptions on an annual basis. Our 2022 assumptions reflect information as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted. This report documents our process for creating these capital markets assumptions, and we provide detailed methodology

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2022 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions

2022 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔16:15, 6.Apr 2022

Summary Q4 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: U.S. economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter at an estimated annualized rate of 6.9%, taking growth for the full year to 5.5%, the strongest reading since 1984. That strong rate

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Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

Occam’s razor and portfolio rebalancing

🕔08:25, 4.Apr 2022

Historical perspective to understand future expectations of return In their 2015 paper, “Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns,”1 authors John C. Bogle and Michael W. Nolan describe a simple model for developing capital market expectations, looking

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The postmodern portfolio

The postmodern portfolio

🕔15:12, 3.Apr 2022

Grayscale Research  Crypto assets are increasingly becoming a key component of The Postmodern Portfolio. This report looks at the investment thesis for crypto assets, and the role they play within a portfolio, through the lens of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).

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Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings

Integrating climate change into capital market assumptions: our approach and findings

🕔08:09, 7.Feb 2022

Our CMA process and how we aligned macro, fundamental and climate variables Our CMA process follows a classic building-block approach in which the components of total return — income, growth and valuation — are forecast independently. We use a number

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Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes

🕔08:25, 5.Feb 2022

Executive Summary This article updates our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. It also includes an analysis that attempts to reconcile everlower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns, and suggests practical strategic steps to

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2021 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

2021 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔08:10, 9.Dec 2021

Summary Q3 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: A robust global recovery from the pandemic-induced downturn continued in the third quarter despite speed bumps from the COVID-19 Delta variant spreading around the world. The U.S. economy grew 6.6% in

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2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report

2022 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Full Report

🕔08:11, 29.Nov 2021

Fading scars, enduring policies IN BRIEF Almost two years after the pandemic struck, the global economic recovery has strong momentum, kicked off by huge fiscal and monetary stimulus and now sustained by a robust capex cycle and solid household balance

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Long-term outlook: World macro economy

Long-term outlook: World macro economy

🕔10:33, 12.Nov 2021

A key factor in the past year has been the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support. The initial economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and the subsequent rebound have been different for many countries. As the pandemic started in China, that

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Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2022-2025

Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2022-2025

🕔16:01, 5.Oct 2021

Long-term Outlook: Beyond Borders The global economy continues to recover strongly from the worst of the Covid-19-driven lockdowns. Central banks are now either discussing the potential to reduce the level of support they provide to economies. While governments are starting

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The roasting twenties 2022-2026 outlook

The roasting twenties 2022-2026 outlook

🕔08:24, 4.Oct 2021

Tthings are heating up It’s easy to understand Elon Musk’s fascination with Nikola Tesla, the inventor of the alternating current (AC) technology that serves as the backbone of the company’s electric vehicles. Talking to Collier’s magazine back in 1926, in

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High yield verliest glans

High yield verliest glans

🕔13:20, 30.Sep 2021

Ongekende monetaire stimulansen zorgen voor sterk herstel In het eerste kwartaal van 2020 werden de financiële markten wereldwijd opgeschrikt door de escalatie van de corona-uitbraak tot pandemie. Zorgen over de economische impact van deze pandemie leidden tot sterk dalende koersen

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PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

PIMCO’s Capital Market Assumptions, August 2021

🕔09:50, 30.Aug 2021

Executive Summary Vaccine-driven reopenings propelled U.S. economic growth in the first half of this year, leading to a significant uptick in inflation. While PIMCO believes that today’s high levels of inflation will likely prove transitory, we believe the Federal Reserve

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Long View Q2: the impact of rates on returns

Long View Q2: the impact of rates on returns

🕔08:15, 30.Aug 2021

1 / Summary Within this report, we present the DWS long-term capital market assumptions as of the end of June 2021 for major asset classes. As the world has continued to rebound strongly from the COVID-19 crisis, global risk markets

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔13:15, 25.Aug 2021

The first half of 2021 has been witness to exceptional growth in demand fueled in large part fiscal stimulus and waning Covid-related restrictions. Latest data release indicates the major economies may be at the onset of high-water mark of economic

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Predicting Equity Returns with Inflation

Predicting Equity Returns with Inflation

🕔09:30, 23.Aug 2021

Key Points Rather than predicting what will happen to inflation in the future—a particularly arduous and humbling task—we ask a simple question: What can past inflation dynamics tell us about the equity market’s future returns? We propose two new investment

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Long Term Asset Class Forecast

Long Term Asset Class Forecast

🕔14:41, 30.Apr 2021

Our longer-term asset class forecasts are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia, generated through a combined assessment of current valuation measures, economic growth, inflation prospects, ESG considerations, yield conditions as well as historical price patterns. We also include

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The green decade

The green decade

🕔11:35, 1.Mar 2021

There is no shortage of challenges for long term investors. The strong performance of risk assets in 2020 has further compressed return expectations, and there exists ongoing concern about (i) how economies will emerge from the current crisis …

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2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

2020 Q4 Capital Market Assumptions

🕔13:07, 3.Dec 2020

To build the income component of our long-term equity forecasts, we calculate each country’s expected income contribution, based on current and anticipated levels of dividend yield, as well as the expected returns attributable to buyback activity (positive) or net positive

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Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions

🕔11:39, 10.Nov 2020

2021 | 25th annual edition Time-tested projections to build stronger portfolios A global pandemic can shift our perspective, making it more difficult to focus on the future. But, of course, this is the essential task of any long-term investor, regardless

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Asset Class Return Forecasts

Asset Class Return Forecasts

🕔15:02, 6.Nov 2020

Quarterly Update  As noted in our previous reports the much-awaited global recovery from the onset of Covid-19 is facing significant headwinds. As the fallout from the crisis becomes clearer in scope and view, ensuing challenges remain daunting. The interplay between

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Capital Market Assumptions

Capital Market Assumptions

🕔11:28, 10.Sep 2020

In recent years, global equities had slightly outpaced market forecasts for lower equity returns. Then the COVID-19 pandemic hit the global economy, putting an end to the 10- year bull market. Equity markets have now started to recover, but the

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Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

Family Offices & LTCMA in our Top Five

🕔10:08, 5.Sep 2020

#36 It was a bit quiet in webinar-world the past month, but this month our calendar is quite busy again. For example, next week Capital Group hosts a webinar called “10 investment themes for the next 10 years“. The week

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2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q3 update

🕔11:43, 20.Aug 2020

Strategic Perspective. It is difficult to imagine that only three months ago we were writing about riding out the first global recession, record levels of unemployment and declines in earnings not seen during any of our lifetimes. This historic decline

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DWS Long View – Q2 2020 update

DWS Long View – Q2 2020 update

🕔11:19, 19.Aug 2020

Within this report, we present the DWS long term capital market assumptions1 as of the end of June 2020 for major asset classes. Back in April we published a report analyzing the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term return

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Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

Asset Class Return Forecasts Quarterly Update

🕔07:43, 13.Aug 2020

Medium and Long-Term Return Forecasts | Q3 – 2020  All signs indicate we have passed the inflection point of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, even if this signals a clearer picture moving forward, different uncertainties are emerging. Our latest forecasts, incorporating

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Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes

Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes

🕔11:23, 20.Jul 2020

Something Familiar, Something New While the spiking number of Covid-19 cases in the US West and South are cause for concern, built-up consumer demand and nascent recoveries in autos, housing and manufacturing are signs that recovery is still on its

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Longer-Term Asset Allocation Views: What To Expect After The Great Pandemic Of 2020

Longer-Term Asset Allocation Views: What To Expect After The Great Pandemic Of 2020

🕔15:12, 26.Jun 2020

An unprecedented health crisis has uprooted medical care, financial markets and the prospects for the global economy. It has left asset allocators reeling as some markets seek to find their footing after a sizeable sell-off, while other markets have benefited

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Global Economic Forecasts

Global Economic Forecasts

🕔09:18, 22.May 2020

Forecasts key indicators

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Long View

Long View

🕔15:47, 20.Mar 2020

Forecasted returns and other considerations The world has been trying to find a new economic identity ever since the 2008 financial crisis. The journey has been arduous so far, with the scars of the financial crisis still quite raw. As

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10-Year Capital Market Assumptions

10-Year Capital Market Assumptions

🕔13:07, 20.Mar 2020

On an annual basis, BNY Mellon Investor Solutions, LLC develops capital market return assumptions for approximately 50 asset classes around the world. The assumptions are based on a 10-year investment time horizon and are intended to guide investors in developing their

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Overall productivity effects from climate change

Overall productivity effects from climate change

🕔06:59, 17.Mar 2020

Schroders Economics Group produces 30-year return forecasts, on an annual basis, for a range of asset classes. Until now, these forecasts have been agnostic on the subject of climate change, making no explicit adjustments for the physical and transition costs

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Capital Markets Assumptions 2020

Capital Markets Assumptions 2020

🕔15:31, 16.Mar 2020

Overview Capital markets assumptions are the expected returns 1 , standard deviations, and correlation estimates that represent the long-term risk/return forecasts for various asset classes. We use these values to score portfolio risk, assist advisors in portfolio construction, construct our

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The dawn of a new decade

The dawn of a new decade

🕔14:53, 9.Mar 2020

Forecasted returns and other considerations The world has been trying to find a new economic identity ever since the 2008 financial crisis. The journey has been arduous so far, with the scars of the financial crisis still quite raw. As

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Does Strong 2019 Spell Problems for 2020 and Beyond?

Does Strong 2019 Spell Problems for 2020 and Beyond?

🕔09:36, 24.Feb 2020

2020 Capital Market Assumptions Did we just “steal” the expected return for the next 18 months?  

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2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q1 update

2020 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Q1 update

🕔06:44, 20.Feb 2020

This paper by Invesco’s Investment Solutions team presents their work in developing forecasts for asset class returns, risk, and correlations which are of critical importance in translating portfolio theory into plausible real-world practical solutions for investors. Executive Summary: The Strategic

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Detecting Tipping Points

Detecting Tipping Points

🕔15:42, 18.Feb 2020

Asset classes views: Medium to long-term scenarios and return forecasts Central scenario: late cycle to continue and to be followed by a correction in the medium term We enter 2020 with the conviction that at this stage a slowdown is in the

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