This research paper presents updated long-term return assumptions for various asset classes in the capital market. The paper highlights the impact of valuations and high starting yields in fixed income on these assumptions, which have been raised across the board
Capital Market Assumptions March 2023 The text revolves around the exploration of asset allocation strategies against the backdrop of climate, social and geopolitical disruptions. The author highlights the consequences of the Ukraine conflict on the global energy supply and inflation,
As we journey into 2023, the global macroeconomic landscape exhibits marked differences from prior years. A decade of easy monetary policy, enabled by low and stable inflation, gave way to 2022's unprecedented monetary tightening, as central banks raised interest rates
Capital Market Assumptions March 2023 The annual edition of Capital Market Assumptions takes a more in-depth approach this year by considering the impact of climate change and social considerations on economic variables and asset class behaviors. The need to balance
Callan recently made substantial adjustments to their 2023 Capital Markets Assumptions, prompted by the historic rise in bond yields that began in March 2022. The changes include an increase in cash returns from 1.2% to 2.75% and core fixed income
This text introduces Sellwood Consulting's 2023 Capital Market Assumptions, which provide forward-looking insights for constructing portfolios with a long-term horizon. The assumptions are based on principles like using different methods to estimate return and risk, incorporating current valuations, and focusing
The main theme of the reasearch revolves around the Franklin Templeton Investment Solutions (FTIS) 2023 Capital Market Expectations (CMEs), which cover their 10-year forecast for asset class returns and volatility. The CMEs also discuss how FTIS believes economic themes such
The main theme of the presentation is the 7-year asset class real return forecasts by GMO. These local, real return forecasts are for several asset classes and not for any specific GMO fund or strategy. It is important to note that
In this research paper titled "Long-Term Asset Allocation: A Different Outlook," the author discusses the significant improvement in expected returns for various asset classes. The main theme revolves around the pivotal issue of growth and the debate on whether recessions
In the "Angeles' Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions as of January 2023" report, Angeles Investment Advisors present their updated capital market assumptions, which are used for asset allocation modeling for clients with a long-term horizon of over ten years. Notable changes
2023 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions In this summary of the "2023 Q1 Capital Market Assumptions" research paper by PGIM Quantitative Solutions, we explore the main theme of global economic growth and inflation expectations over the next decade. The text explains
The 2023 Capital Markets Forecast by Syntrinsic Investment Committee provides an executive summary that reflects on the past year's events and how they have shaped the outlook for the coming years. The main theme revolves around higher interest rates, higher
As presented in the MFS Long-Term Capital Market Expectations 2023 edition, the main theme revolves around the forward-looking return and risk expectations across various asset classes and regions. The report highlights a more favorable outlook on global equities with a
This text from State Street Global Advisors discusses their process of generating long-term asset class forecasts, which are forward-looking estimates of total return and risk premia. The forecasts incorporate inflation, economic growth, ESG considerations, and current market conditions. The main
In "Capital Market Line: Quarterly Five-Year Forecast of Relative Risk and Return Across Asset Classes – The Pendulums Are Swinging," the authors discuss a reset of inflationary forces in 2023 and the likelihood of a profit recession rather than an
Incorporating Climate Change: 30-Year Forecasts for Asset Class Performance and Returns This paper, titled "Long-run asset class performance: 30-year return forecasts," discusses Schroders Economics Group's annual thirty-year return forecasts for a range of asset classes, incorporating the impact of climate
Alternative Thinking | Q1 2023 Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes This article, titled "Capital Market Assumptions for Major Asset Classes," presents updated medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected return estimates for major asset classes. In 2022, expected returns increased
2023 Asset Allocation In the report titled "2023 Asset Allocation Report: Examining Return Forecasts and Implications for Long-term Portfolio Strategies," the author highlights the key observations for various asset classes, such as stocks, rates, and private equity. The main theme
Expected returns for the next decade In this text, the primary theme revolves around the global economy, financial markets, and investment strategies. The discussion encompasses the calculation of return expectations for the coming five and ten years based on long-term
Long-run asset class performance: How climate change will impact asset returns – an update Incorporating the impact of climate change, Schroders Economics Group presents a 30-year return forecast for cash, bonds, credit, equities, and real estate. This analysis utilizes Oxford
LONG-TERM STRATEGIC OUTLOOK A five-year returns forecast for major asset classes — updated twice a year to help you set strategic portfolio allocations The strategic outlook for major asset classes over the next five years is marked by uncertainty, with
2023 LONG-TERM CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK In the face of a challenging economic environment, Canadian pension plans experienced a surprisingly positive year in 2022. Long-term interest rates rose dramatically, reducing the present value of future pension liabilities more than the fall
The text by Amundi highlights the impact of the war in Ukraine on the energy supply outlook and the path to net zero. The need for diversifying the energy supply mix has accelerated the shift towards greener energy sources, but
Schroders Economics Group produces thirty-year return forecasts on an annual basis, which incorporates the impact of climate change. This is Part 1 of our paper where we outline the methodology used to incorporate climate change into our return assumptions. In
Mackenzie presents the 2023 Orange Book, our long-term outlook on domestic and global markets. Here, we highlight our expectations for the average return of stocks and bonds over the coming decade. Day-to-day moves in financial markets make the headlines. But what
Long-term Investment Outlook 2023 Introduction We are in a polycrisis. Our ecosystems are on the brink of collapse, our economic system is stressed, and socio-political relations are under pressure. The consequences are increasing uncertainty, lack of progress on the sustainable
To many investors, this year will feel like a rollercoaster. Several major developments have impacted the world economy, and in response, financial markets have reacted fiercely by repricing asset markets. Especially at times like these, it’s important to take a
The Schroders Multi-Asset long-term capital market assumptions are forwardlooking estimates of total returns which are an important component for the team’s strategic asset allocation modelling and portfolio construction. This note presents our latest 10-year capital market returns forecasts in local
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
J.P. Morgan Asset Management’s Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions are developed each year by our Assumptions Committee, a multi-asset class team of senior investors and strategists from across the firm. The Committee relies on the input and expertise of a range of
What do our Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions mean for defined contribution plans? Our 2023 Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions, which forecast asset class returns over a 10- to 15-year horizon, suggest that public markets today offer the best potential long-term returns
Including: Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions Short-Term Tactical Outlook This report presents Cliffwater recommendations for asset class return and risk (standard deviation) assumptions, intended for asset allocation studies that set long-term portfolio asset class targets. While these forward-looking or “expected” asset
As the world faces challenges from weakening growth, inflation and policy tightening, the good news for European High Yield investors is that the underlying strength in the asset class has been on an improving trajectory over the last two decades.
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
The age of confusion is all about multiplicity, persistence and reflexivity In our view, we have now entered the age of confusion. Confusion because of the many moving parts that market participants have to juggle, creating larger divergences in analyst
In this report, we present the DWS long-term capital market assumptions for major asset classes as of the end of June 2022 while exploring the risks to these forecasts.
None of the preceding is meant to denigrate the process of creating capital market assumptions, which are demanded and used by institutional investors worldwide. As mentioned, firms bring enormous intellectual capital and resources together to build, and convey to investors,
Given the huge changes in inflation expectations and abrupt yield changes of the past six months, it seems sensible to re-assess expectations for capital market returns. Long-term investors update and review long-term strategic assumptions on a set cycle, which we
Overview It gives me great pleasure to introduce our ninth Secular Outlook. T he next five years will be an uphill struggle for investors. High public and corporate debt levels, labour shortages, potential tax hikes and increased levels of state
Executive Summary We demonstrate the building blocks for investors who may either be considering allocating to illiquid assets for the first time, or who want to gain a greater understanding of how much capital they should invest in illiquid assets.
2022 long-term expected returns for capital markets Balanced return: We forecast a traditional balanced fund (60% equities / 40% bonds with a home bias) to return somewhere close to 4%, or roughly 2.0% in real terms. The lower-than-historical return can
INTRODUCTION: This report presents Angeles Investment Advisors’ updated capital market assumptions as of January 2022. These assumptions are used in asset allocation modeling for our clients over a long-term horizon (>10 years). Versus our most recent assumptions from our 2021
Executive Summary “Uncertainty must be taken in a sense radically distinct from the familiar notion of Risk, from which it has never been properly separated…. It will appear that a measurable uncertainty, or "risk" proper…. is so far different from
Current Market Conditions Strong performance across both growth and value strategies during 2021 2021 returns for U.S. equity markets are eye-popping: – S&P 500: +28.7% – U.S. Small Cap: +14.8% – Non-U.S. equity markets lagged: – MSCI World ex USA:
Sellwood Consulting updates its capital markets assumptions on an annual basis. Our 2022 assumptions reflect information as of December 31, 2021, unless otherwise noted. This report documents our process for creating these capital markets assumptions, and we provide detailed methodology
Summary Q4 2021 Developments Informing Our Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts: U.S. economic growth accelerated in the fourth quarter at an estimated annualized rate of 6.9%, taking growth for the full year to 5.5%, the strongest reading since 1984. That strong rate
Historical perspective to understand future expectations of return In their 2015 paper, “Occam’s Razor Redux: Establishing Reasonable Expectations for Financial Market Returns,”1 authors John C. Bogle and Michael W. Nolan describe a simple model for developing capital market expectations, looking
Grayscale Research Crypto assets are increasingly becoming a key component of The Postmodern Portfolio. This report looks at the investment thesis for crypto assets, and the role they play within a portfolio, through the lens of Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT).
Our CMA process and how we aligned macro, fundamental and climate variables Our CMA process follows a classic building-block approach in which the components of total return — income, growth and valuation — are forecast independently. We use a number
Executive Summary This article updates our estimates of medium-term (5- to 10-year) expected returns for major asset classes. It also includes an analysis that attempts to reconcile everlower expected returns with ever-higher realized returns, and suggests practical strategic steps to
