Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”
Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September
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Tag "macro"
US, China firm, Europe feeble
Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second
US labor market report surprises markets
Week Ahead The US labor market data for June was better than expected. 224,000 new jobs were created, well above market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The market had expected this figure to
How low can interest rates go?
Macro Weekly We expect the ECB to cut its main policy interest rates further. We expect a further 20bp of reductions (one 10bp reduction in September and another one early next year), which would take the key deposit rate to
What’s up with inflation?
US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…
Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system
Occasional Paper Series This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions.
Stick to the Plan
Global Macro Trends With all the geopolitical ‘noise’ swirling around these days, there is a growing propensity in the investment community to react quickly to near-term news flows, or even head to the sidelines until there is greater visibility. Our
Barometer of financial markets, June investment outlook
Barometer: More pain to come Fresh trade tensions raise concerns about prospects for both the global economy and equity markets.
An ounce of prevention?
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?
Knee jerk reaction
Macro Weekly First reaction to re-escalting trade war visible Korea hit by more than the trade war? Central bankers promising (much) more easing
What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?
Fixed Income Perspectives President Trump threw monkey wrenches into the global financial markets by suddenly escalating trade frictions with China, and then unexpectedly weaponizing tariffs against Mexico. As the hyenas advanced, the lion roared: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that
The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market
The U.S. labor market has shown sustained strength in the years since the global financial crisis. In assessing this performance, however, it is also important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. Have the new jobs
EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind
The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless
More Macro Issues to the Fore
We continue to believe that there is sufficient political will for the U.S. to stay the course regarding the trade conflict with China. While our base case is for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold, if the trade situation
Raising the Stakes
Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
Trade conflict or something else?
Macro Weekly Eurozone economic sentiment improves Industrial production in Japan and Korea improves But China manufacturing PMI drops back again
China economy: Green shoots or red herrings?
China macro update Defying global concerns around its growth, China’s first quarter GDP and March activity data provided further evidence that policy easing effects are coming through and growth is bottoming out, helped partly by an export recovery However, the
What do shocking numbers tell us?
Macro Weekly Germany’s Ifo plunges… While French business confidence improves Unexpected re-emergence of the trade conflict most unwelcome May to step down
Central banks walk growth tightrope
The Macro Report | May 2019 Global economic growth in 2019 is showing signs of picking up amid recovery in the eurozone and China, the world’s second-largest economy. The prospect of a deeper slowdown in China has been one of
In Turbulent Times, European Institutions Turn to ETFs
Allocations to exchange-traded funds by institutions currently investing in ETFs increased by 50% in 2018, totaling 15% of total assets among the 127 institutional investors participating in Greenwich Associates most recent European Exchange-Traded Funds Study. That growth was driven in
At a crossroads
Macro Weekly Manufacturing remains in the doldrums Disappointing Chinese April data after strong March Also a range of positives to note …
Outlook for economy recovers only slowly
Week Ahead Focus: New Yield Forecasts On interest rate markets, concerns about an economic slowdown that goes beyond its current magnitude continue to prevail. Sentiment and risks, rather than available data, are crucial. In fact, first quarter GDP growth in
Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?
Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de
Takeaways from first-quarter earnings
Weekly Commentary U.S. earnings growth has slowed markedly from 2018, but a surprisingly resilient first quarter supports our still-positive view on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve maintained its patient policy stance last week, and U.S. jobs gains and eurozone growth
Asset Allocation Consensus Augustus
