Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Over 80 investors gathered in Houston in November to discuss and debate Invesco Fixed Income’s views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in Invesco Fixed Income’s investment process and our framework of
Given the heightened “noise” around geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainties, our strong suggestion is to play heavily to one’s strengths in today’s markets. All of us at KKR see a clear path forward to leverage the distinct areas of investment and operational expertise that
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
A little over a decade has passed since the 2008 global financial crisis, and central banks continue to apply unconventional monetary policy tools in their effort to maintain economic stability amid slowing growth. Quantitative easing (QE) alongside a now all-too-common
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
External demand showed early signs of recovery; domestic construction activity growth came in stronger than expected. Nov MTD IPP coal consumption growth remained high at 15.8% YoY despite a warmer Nov this year. Capacity utilization rates of steel, coal and
What is it? The Philly Fed Index is the results of a survey of roughly 250 companies with over 100 employees from the Third Federal Reserve District. This is basically a subcomponent of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is based
We published a global 2020 Outlook last week instead of a weekly. I argued that the global economy will remain weak- ish in the short term, but show improvement in the course of 2020. If my assessment is right we
Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6
Macroeconomic Outlook 2020 Key points • Fears of a 2019 global recession have abated as major macro risks have started fading. • However, for 2020 we think actual GDP growth is unlikely to be able to exceed potential in the
Monthly Investment Brief With equity markets up by an average 20% worldwide, and with all asset classes into positive territory, the question inevitably rises: what to do now? Take some profits or stay invested?
Market Pulse MACRO VIEWS FED: The Fed delivered another 25 bps of rate easing, which likely reflects the last mid-cycle adjustment. We expect the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end, barring any persistent weakness in data or inflationary pressures.
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Our constructive positioning is paying off: risk sentiment has started to improve and markets have duly rallied to new highs. Stable corporate revenue growth bodes well for future earnings, the macro data continues to
Macro Outlook – Global growth continues to face headwinds from a downturn in the industrial cycle and uncertainty related to trade tensions. Nevertheless, the trend in the global Nowcast remains broadly stable at around 2% – US growth remains robust
Summary – Equities, and other risk assets, continues to price in a more positive economic outlook than the one which we are foreseeing The stabilization which we have seen in tactical macro data over October is in our view not
October 2019 As we start the final quarter of 2019, volatility has increased relative to the first half of the year, equity markets remain strong year-to-date, and a bid for safe-haven assets has been maintained. Monetary policy has undergone a dramatic shift over
Eurozone business confidence stabilised in October according to preliminary data. The Markit PMI for manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7. Still nothing to write home about, of course, but it could have been worse. PMI data have not been released for
Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition.
Contagion may be spreading through the global economy The global economy continues to face headwinds, and risks are mounting. Trade tensions are spreading from country to country, and increasingly, manufacturing weakness is starting to infect the much larger service sector.
Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at
Important US data is due for release next week. Markets will be watching to see if the weakening that began in August continues or if there is a recovery. We believe that the weak August figures were due to the
Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019
Business confidence in manufacturing globally, as measured by the global PMI manufacturing improved a little in August but remains weak: 49.5 versus 49.2. This was partly thanks to an improvement in China’s Caixin index (50.4, up from 49.9). But the
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives Trump a firm ‘no’ as he tries to buy Greenland, despite his lack of ‘green’ credentials. Following the market turbulence in the first half of August, financial markets had a quieter week. Volatility indicators,
Global Asset Allocation Views Q1 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/jp-morgan/global-asset-allocation-views-q1-2020/ #AssetAllocation #credit #equites #Equities #FixedIncome via @JPMorganAM
Zo was het vorig jaar! #aftermovie #AssetAllocationAwards
https://vimeo.com/321963939
Economic resilience, Fed and elections to drive US markets in 2020 -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/amundi/economic-resilience-fed-and-elections-to-drive-us-markets-in-2020-2/ #consumption #election #monetarypolicy via @Amundi_ENG
The US federal reserve’s ‘whatever it takes’ moment has arrived -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/01/ubp/the-us-federal-reserves-whatever-it-takes-moment-has-arrived/ #AssetAllocation #centralbank #credit #ECB #Equities #FED #USA
