Play Your Game
Insights – Global Macro Trends Without a doubt, 2019 was a year to remember; the question, though, is for what? On the one hand, the glass half empty community may want to point to the record level of global consternation,
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Tag "macro"
Economic Update
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
When China sneezes
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint he coronavirus casts a dark shadow over the world economy by threatening to derail the revival in growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show a steady
Covid-19 – a supply shock for now
Monthly Investment Strategy – Central bank put, again… Twice in 10 days the Chinese authorities have changed the way new Covid-19 cases are counted in Hubei, which means that most of the “epidemic projection” exercises, which have been so popular in
Modestly constructive amid accommodative policies and signs of stabilisation
Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
Can This Expansion Last Forever?
The expansion of the U.S. economy following the global financial crisis has been slower than those after previous post-war recessions. Since 2010, growth has averaged around 2.3%, compared with over 3.0% in previous expansions. But if the current business cycle
What a difference a year makes.
Macro Views Housing is poised to emerge from its slowdown on the back of three rate cuts, though broader economic conditions will likely moderate any pickup Tariffs have thrown a wrench into trade data. Soured global conditions have complicated global
Global Investors’ Summit November 2019
Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Over 80 investors gathered in Houston in November to discuss and debate Invesco Fixed Income’s views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in Invesco Fixed Income’s investment process and our framework of
Play Your Game
Given the heightened “noise” around geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainties, our strong suggestion is to play heavily to one’s strengths in today’s markets. All of us at KKR see a clear path forward to leverage the distinct areas of investment and operational expertise that
Low Economic Volatility May Continue Supporting Credit
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
Status Of Continued Unconventional Monetary Policy Tools
A little over a decade has passed since the 2008 global financial crisis, and central banks continue to apply unconventional monetary policy tools in their effort to maintain economic stability amid slowing growth. Quantitative easing (QE) alongside a now all-too-common
Portfolio Manager Perspectives Mark Dowding’s Global Macro Update
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
Stronger construction activity and a pick-up in external demand
External demand showed early signs of recovery; domestic construction activity growth came in stronger than expected. Nov MTD IPP coal consumption growth remained high at 15.8% YoY despite a warmer Nov this year. Capacity utilization rates of steel, coal and
There is an interesting discrepancy in the Philly Fed Index. Here’s a quick breakdown of what we found:
What is it? The Philly Fed Index is the results of a survey of roughly 250 companies with over 100 employees from the Third Federal Reserve District. This is basically a subcomponent of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is based
Macro Weekly
We published a global 2020 Outlook last week instead of a weekly. I argued that the global economy will remain weak- ish in the short term, but show improvement in the course of 2020. If my assessment is right we
Taking stock of our 2019 views
Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6
Fragile 20-20 vision
Macroeconomic Outlook 2020 Key points • Fears of a 2019 global recession have abated as major macro risks have started fading. • However, for 2020 we think actual GDP growth is unlikely to be able to exceed potential in the
In doubt, no one despairs
Monthly Investment Brief With equity markets up by an average 20% worldwide, and with all asset classes into positive territory, the question inevitably rises: what to do now? Take some profits or stay invested?
Perspectives from GSAM Strategic Advisory Solutions
Market Pulse MACRO VIEWS FED: The Fed delivered another 25 bps of rate easing, which likely reflects the last mid-cycle adjustment. We expect the Fed to hold rates steady through year-end, barring any persistent weakness in data or inflationary pressures.
The rebound of risk-on sentiment is justified
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Our constructive positioning is paying off: risk sentiment has started to improve and markets have duly rallied to new highs. Stable corporate revenue growth bodes well for future earnings, the macro data continues to
Investment Monthly November 2019
Macro Outlook – Global growth continues to face headwinds from a downturn in the industrial cycle and uncertainty related to trade tensions. Nevertheless, the trend in the global Nowcast remains broadly stable at around 2% – US growth remains robust
SEB House View
Summary – Equities, and other risk assets, continues to price in a more positive economic outlook than the one which we are foreseeing The stabilization which we have seen in tactical macro data over October is in our view not
Asset Allocation View
October 2019 As we start the final quarter of 2019, volatility has increased relative to the first half of the year, equity markets remain strong year-to-date, and a bid for safe-haven assets has been maintained. Monetary policy has undergone a dramatic shift over
The loss of momentum is losing momentum
Eurozone business confidence stabilised in October according to preliminary data. The Markit PMI for manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7. Still nothing to write home about, of course, but it could have been worse. PMI data have not been released for
Featured
USD: No sustained trend visible -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/erste-group/usd-no-sustained-trend-visible/ #currency #fx #interestrates via @ErsteGroup
Tackling The ‘Unknown Unknowns’: How Active Managers Manage Unforeseen Risks -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/columbia-threadneedle/tackling-the-unknown-unknowns-how-active-managers-manage-unforeseen-risks/ #active #passive #COVID19 #fundmanager #ETFs #behavioural via @CTinvest_EMEA @CTInvest_US
Policy Tries To Keep Pace With The Pandemic -> https://www.opiniopro.com/2020/04/northern-trust/policy-tries-to-keep-pace-with-the-pandemic/ #CoronaCrisis #COVID19 #EmergingMarkets #debt via @NorthernTrust @NTInvest
Which financial assets are well positioned and which ones are at risk as policy-makers brace for major COVID-19-induced demand shocks? Find out more in this piece.
‘Whatever it takes’: Fiscal Edition -> https://opiniopro.com/2020/03/ubp/whatever-it-takes-fiscal-edition/ #CentralBanks #china #coronavirus #credit #crisis #ECB #fiscalpolicy #fomc #COVID19 via
@UBP_Group
