Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at
Important US data is due for release next week. Markets will be watching to see if the weakening that began in August continues or if there is a recovery. We believe that the weak August figures were due to the
Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019
Business confidence in manufacturing globally, as measured by the global PMI manufacturing improved a little in August but remains weak: 49.5 versus 49.2. This was partly thanks to an improvement in China’s Caixin index (50.4, up from 49.9). But the
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives Trump a firm ‘no’ as he tries to buy Greenland, despite his lack of ‘green’ credentials. Following the market turbulence in the first half of August, financial markets had a quieter week. Volatility indicators,
The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption.
Macro and market perspectives Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. Fiscal policy on its own will struggle to provide major
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Growth The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%.
Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September
Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second
Week Ahead The US labor market data for June was better than expected. 224,000 new jobs were created, well above market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The market had expected this figure to
Macro Weekly We expect the ECB to cut its main policy interest rates further. We expect a further 20bp of reductions (one 10bp reduction in September and another one early next year), which would take the key deposit rate to
US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…
Occasional Paper Series This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions.
Global Macro Trends With all the geopolitical ‘noise’ swirling around these days, there is a growing propensity in the investment community to react quickly to near-term news flows, or even head to the sidelines until there is greater visibility. Our
Barometer: More pain to come Fresh trade tensions raise concerns about prospects for both the global economy and equity markets.
Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?
Macro Weekly First reaction to re-escalting trade war visible Korea hit by more than the trade war? Central bankers promising (much) more easing
Fixed Income Perspectives President Trump threw monkey wrenches into the global financial markets by suddenly escalating trade frictions with China, and then unexpectedly weaponizing tariffs against Mexico. As the hyenas advanced, the lion roared: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that
The U.S. labor market has shown sustained strength in the years since the global financial crisis. In assessing this performance, however, it is also important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. Have the new jobs
The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless
We continue to believe that there is sufficient political will for the U.S. to stay the course regarding the trade conflict with China. While our base case is for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold, if the trade situation
Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
Macro Weekly Eurozone economic sentiment improves Industrial production in Japan and Korea improves But China manufacturing PMI drops back again
The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).
Fresh #StarkieBlog! https://t.co/YZrzQpIlIQ
Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen
