The text titled "Global Material Constraints: Insights from Russia to the US and China" by Clocktower Group delves into the repercussions of overlooking material constraints, drawing lessons from Russia's experiences. It underscores the inevitable crises resulting from such oversights. Additionally,
"Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team" by Capital Group sheds light on the current economic landscape. The resilience exhibited across various sectors and regions seems to be making markets less cautious about potential downside growth
Credit Agricole's research "EUROZONE 2023-2024 SCENARIO: THE BUMPY ROAD BACK TO NORMAL" delves into the economic trajectory of the Eurozone post pandemic and energy crisis. The Eurozone year-on-year growth has experienced a significant decline, plummeting from 5.5% in Q1 2022
Allianz's "Eurozone Convergence: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back" dissects three key factors affecting global economic dynamics. Firstly, the US labor market seems to be heading for a soft landing, although it may not be sufficient to instigate Federal action.
In "Leaky Pipes," AXA Investment Managers address two key aspects impacting the financial landscape. The first being the shift in emphasis to the duration of restrictive monetary conditions, due to "non-decisive" data flows. The firm characterizes the situation as a
The article "Nearshoring in Mexico: Mirage or the real deal?" delves into the concept of nearshoring, where production and services are moved closer to their final markets, focusing on Mexico's potential as an attractive nearshoring destination. The author outlines the
The first few years of the 2020s were marked by extensive global disruptions with deep economic, financial, and geopolitical implications. Pimco's Secular Forum explores these transient cyclical dynamics that are likely to evolve into enduring secular changes. The global economy
The past few tumultuous years, marked by the COVID pandemic and its ensuing societal upheaval, have precipitated significant economic shifts. In JP Morgan's insightful analysis, it explores these events in retrospect, delineating the shocks that have subsided, those currently subsiding,
JP Morgan’s research offers an incisive look into the profound shockwaves the COVID-19 pandemic sent through the global economy. The crises unfolded in multiple dimensions – a global health catastrophe, cities under lockdown, disrupted supply chains, and a migration slowdown.
In "Debt Ceiling Outlook," J.P.Morgan provides a comprehensive explanation of the debt ceiling or limit, which caps the amount the federal government is authorized to borrow to fulfill its financial obligations. The debt limit doesn't sanction new spending but funds
In Capital Group's report, "Opportunities across the credit spectrum for multi-sector income investors," portfolio manager Damien McCann and fixed income investment director Flavio Carpenzano delve into how the current macroeconomic scenario is creating unique investment opportunities, especially for multi-sector income
The major developed economies, despite less wear than anticipated, are not necessarily on a steady path to recovery. In fact, their resilience might be leading to a slowdown rather than accelerating recovery. Inflation remains high, and monetary and financial tightening
The discussion in "Macro musings: The Fed, payrolls, and what to make of it all" revolves around the Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates, the effect on market pricing, and the potential scenarios that might prompt a change. While the
In the research paper titled "Spring Economic Outlook," the author from Allianz discusses the impact of negative confidence effects from the near-death experience in the US banking sector and the unresolved energy situation in Europe on the global economy. The
The global banking sector is currently facing a challenging time, with banks in the United States adopting a precautionary mode. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve seems to be prepared to reconcile with a credit crunch, as long as it's not too
This week we want to take a step back from assessing cyclical conditions and second-guessing central bankers to take a look at the transatlantic relationship, spurred by a view “from the outside”, a long essay by Ding Gang, senior editor
First things first, the seasonals With the most recent release of nonfarm payrolls, I saw a lot of the focus placed on the seasonal adjustment being the source of upside and I believe this misses the point. Yes, seasonals likely
Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to
Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%
Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a selloff. Hopes for less restrictive
Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate
Economische ontwikkelingen: ◼ Groeiverwachtingen krabbelen op, met name in Europa ◼ Inflatie daalt verder ◼ Forse daling kortlopende …
Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive
As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If
The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have
Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors
Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after
This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find
In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in
The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
Schroders Recession Dashboard: what is it telling us? Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban? Which emerging markets are most at risk of defaulting on their overseas debts?
Asia Macro: On March 27, Chinese authorities ordered a citywide lockdown in Shanghai. The lockdown was originally intended to take place in two phases, lasting eight days. However, things did not pan out this way. On April 9, the central
No doubt, war is a human tragedy. It requires heavy reflection on what has transpired and how it can be avoided in the future. However, the current situation also demands that, as fiduciaries, we delve deeply into what the implications
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data
Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as
Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,
Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).
April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
