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Global Material Constraints: Insights from Russia to the US and China

Global Material Constraints: Insights from Russia to the US and China

🕔07:28, 31.Aug 2023

The text titled "Global Material Constraints: Insights from Russia to the US and China" by Clocktower Group delves into the repercussions of overlooking material constraints, drawing lessons from Russia's experiences. It underscores the inevitable crises resulting from such oversights. Additionally,

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Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team

Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team

🕔16:00, 8.Aug 2023

"Quarterly macro and market insights from Capital Group’s fixed income team" by Capital Group sheds light on the current economic landscape. The resilience exhibited across various sectors and regions seems to be making markets less cautious about potential downside growth

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Eurozone 2023-2024: Navigating After Shocks

Eurozone 2023-2024: Navigating After Shocks

🕔15:39, 25.Jul 2023

Credit Agricole's research "EUROZONE 2023-2024 SCENARIO: THE BUMPY ROAD BACK TO NORMAL" delves into the economic trajectory of the Eurozone post pandemic and energy crisis. The Eurozone year-on-year growth has experienced a significant decline, plummeting from 5.5% in Q1 2022

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Global Economic Shifts: Analyzing Labor, Reopening, and Monetary Policies

Global Economic Shifts: Analyzing Labor, Reopening, and Monetary Policies

🕔12:56, 17.Jul 2023

Allianz's "Eurozone Convergence: Two Steps Forward, One Step Back" dissects three key factors affecting global economic dynamics. Firstly, the US labor market seems to be heading for a soft landing, although it may not be sufficient to instigate Federal action.

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Navigating Monetary Conditions and Euro Area’s Financial Framework

Navigating Monetary Conditions and Euro Area’s Financial Framework

🕔09:46, 17.Jul 2023

In "Leaky Pipes," AXA Investment Managers address two key aspects impacting the financial landscape. The first being the shift in emphasis to the duration of restrictive monetary conditions, due to "non-decisive" data flows. The firm characterizes the situation as a

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Assessing Mexico as a Nearshoring Hub: Opportunities and Challenges

Assessing Mexico as a Nearshoring Hub: Opportunities and Challenges

🕔12:50, 19.Jun 2023

The article "Nearshoring in Mexico: Mirage or the real deal?" delves into the concept of nearshoring, where production and services are moved closer to their final markets, focusing on Mexico's potential as an attractive nearshoring destination. The author outlines the

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The Unfolding Aftershock Economy: Analyzing the Consequences of Global Disruptions

The Unfolding Aftershock Economy: Analyzing the Consequences of Global Disruptions

🕔14:34, 16.Jun 2023

The first few years of the 2020s were marked by extensive global disruptions with deep economic, financial, and geopolitical implications. Pimco's Secular Forum explores these transient cyclical dynamics that are likely to evolve into enduring secular changes. The global economy

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Post-COVID Economic Landscape: A Retrospective Analysis and Future Outlook

Post-COVID Economic Landscape: A Retrospective Analysis and Future Outlook

🕔15:37, 15.Jun 2023

The past few tumultuous years, marked by the COVID pandemic and its ensuing societal upheaval, have precipitated significant economic shifts. In JP Morgan's insightful analysis, it explores these events in retrospect, delineating the shocks that have subsided, those currently subsiding,

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Deciphering the COVID-19 Shock: An Examination of Lasting Impacts

Deciphering the COVID-19 Shock: An Examination of Lasting Impacts

🕔10:19, 15.Jun 2023

JP Morgan’s research offers an incisive look into the profound shockwaves the COVID-19 pandemic sent through the global economy. The crises unfolded in multiple dimensions – a global health catastrophe, cities under lockdown, disrupted supply chains, and a migration slowdown.

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Understanding the Debt Ceiling: Its Implications and Current Outlook

Understanding the Debt Ceiling: Its Implications and Current Outlook

🕔15:22, 9.Jun 2023

In "Debt Ceiling Outlook," J.P.Morgan provides a comprehensive explanation of the debt ceiling or limit, which caps the amount the federal government is authorized to borrow to fulfill its financial obligations. The debt limit doesn't sanction new spending but funds

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Capitalizing on the Current Macro Environment: A Guide for Multi-Sector Income Investors

Capitalizing on the Current Macro Environment: A Guide for Multi-Sector Income Investors

🕔11:41, 8.Jun 2023

In Capital Group's report, "Opportunities across the credit spectrum for multi-sector income investors," portfolio manager Damien McCann and fixed income investment director Flavio Carpenzano delve into how the current macroeconomic scenario is creating unique investment opportunities, especially for multi-sector income

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Global Economic Divergences: Resilience, Risks, and Recession

Global Economic Divergences: Resilience, Risks, and Recession

🕔09:39, 12.May 2023

The major developed economies, despite less wear than anticipated, are not necessarily on a steady path to recovery. In fact, their resilience might be leading to a slowdown rather than accelerating recovery. Inflation remains high, and monetary and financial tightening

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Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

Economic Outlook: Federal Reserve Actions, Employment Data, and Future Implications

🕔08:07, 2.May 2023

The discussion in "Macro musings: The Fed, payrolls, and what to make of it all" revolves around the Federal Reserve's decision to hike rates, the effect on market pricing, and the potential scenarios that might prompt a change. While the

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Spring Outlook: Global Economic Slowdown Amid Unresolved Crises

Spring Outlook: Global Economic Slowdown Amid Unresolved Crises

🕔14:22, 3.Apr 2023

In the research paper titled "Spring Economic Outlook," the author from Allianz discusses the impact of negative confidence effects from the near-death experience in the US banking sector and the unresolved energy situation in Europe on the global economy. The

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Challenges for Global Banking Sector

Challenges for Global Banking Sector

🕔12:04, 29.Mar 2023

The global banking sector is currently facing a challenging time, with banks in the United States adopting a precautionary mode. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve seems to be prepared to reconcile with a credit crunch, as long as it's not too

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Resilience of the West

Resilience of the West

🕔15:00, 1.Mar 2023

This week we want to take a step back from assessing cyclical conditions and second-guessing central bankers to take a look at the transatlantic relationship, spurred by a view “from the outside”, a long essay by Ding Gang, senior editor

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Macro musings: employment and lending

Macro musings: employment and lending

🕔11:42, 24.Feb 2023

First things first, the seasonals  With the most recent release of nonfarm payrolls, I saw a lot of the focus placed on the seasonal adjustment being the source of upside and I believe this misses the point. Yes, seasonals likely

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Ukraine: A Year of War

Ukraine: A Year of War

🕔10:10, 24.Feb 2023

Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to

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Quick take: Europe – recession inevitable?

Quick take: Europe – recession inevitable?

🕔12:11, 2.Feb 2023

Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%

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Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔14:18, 1.Feb 2023

Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a selloff. Hopes for less restrictive

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Outlook for bonds brighter; growth concerns linger

Outlook for bonds brighter; growth concerns linger

🕔16:09, 31.Jan 2023

Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate

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2023 is positief gestart

2023 is positief gestart

🕔12:19, 16.Jan 2023

Economische ontwikkelingen: ◼ Groeiverwachtingen krabbelen op, met name in Europa ◼ Inflatie daalt verder ◼ Forse daling kortlopende …

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2023 US Macro Outlook

2023 US Macro Outlook

🕔10:53, 21.Dec 2022

Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive

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Investment Outlook 2023

Investment Outlook 2023

🕔12:53, 8.Dec 2022

As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

🕔15:33, 5.Dec 2022

The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have

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2023 Macro Outlook

2023 Macro Outlook

🕔16:00, 1.Dec 2022

Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors

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Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

🕔15:55, 5.Nov 2022

Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after

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Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

🕔08:10, 27.Oct 2022

This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find

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Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

🕔16:18, 17.Oct 2022

In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in

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2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

🕔08:40, 2.Sep 2022

The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in

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Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

🕔10:44, 28.Jul 2022

As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and

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Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

🕔12:54, 23.May 2022

Schroders Recession Dashboard: what is it telling us? Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban?  Which emerging markets are most at risk of defaulting on their overseas debts?

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China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

🕔13:19, 3.May 2022

Asia Macro: On March 27, Chinese authorities ordered a citywide lockdown in Shanghai. The lockdown was originally intended to take place in two phases, lasting eight days. However, things did not pan out this way. On April 9, the central

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State of Play

State of Play

🕔16:55, 12.Apr 2022

No doubt, war is a human tragedy. It requires heavy reflection on what has transpired and how it can be avoided in the future. However, the current situation also demands that, as fiduciaries, we delve deeply into what the implications

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Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔16:02, 4.Mar 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

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Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

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2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 11.Feb 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

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The coup the graph

The coup the graph

🕔16:02, 10.Dec 2021

Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But

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How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

🕔08:05, 26.Nov 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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Pandemic Guerilla

Pandemic Guerilla

🕔12:40, 13.Sep 2021

In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data

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Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

🕔15:09, 12.Aug 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had

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Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

🕔12:55, 9.Jul 2021

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as

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What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

🕔08:42, 11.Jun 2021

Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,

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US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

🕔11:05, 27.May 2021

Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).

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2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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An update on our ESG scores

An update on our ESG scores

🕔08:10, 29.Apr 2021

In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG

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How to analyse discretionary macro funds

How to analyse discretionary macro funds

🕔15:07, 28.Apr 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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The great rate debate

The great rate debate

🕔08:57, 2.Apr 2021

President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …

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Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

🕔08:16, 19.Mar 2021

According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …

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Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

🕔17:40, 20.Feb 2021

Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …

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