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Investment Outlook 2023

Investment Outlook 2023

🕔12:53, 8.Dec 2022

As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

🕔15:33, 5.Dec 2022

The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have

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2023 Macro Outlook

2023 Macro Outlook

🕔16:00, 1.Dec 2022

Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors

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Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔14:18, 12.Nov 2022

Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a selloff. Hopes for less restrictive

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Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

🕔15:55, 5.Nov 2022

Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after

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Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

🕔08:10, 27.Oct 2022

This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find

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Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

🕔16:18, 17.Oct 2022

In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in

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2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

🕔08:40, 2.Sep 2022

The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in

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Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

🕔10:44, 28.Jul 2022

As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and

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Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

🕔12:54, 23.May 2022

Schroders Recession Dashboard: what is it telling us? Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban?  Which emerging markets are most at risk of defaulting on their overseas debts?

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China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

🕔13:19, 3.May 2022

Asia Macro: On March 27, Chinese authorities ordered a citywide lockdown in Shanghai. The lockdown was originally intended to take place in two phases, lasting eight days. However, things did not pan out this way. On April 9, the central

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State of Play

State of Play

🕔16:55, 12.Apr 2022

No doubt, war is a human tragedy. It requires heavy reflection on what has transpired and how it can be avoided in the future. However, the current situation also demands that, as fiduciaries, we delve deeply into what the implications

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Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔16:02, 4.Mar 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

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Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

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2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 11.Feb 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

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The coup the graph

The coup the graph

🕔16:02, 10.Dec 2021

Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But

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How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

🕔08:05, 26.Nov 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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Pandemic Guerilla

Pandemic Guerilla

🕔12:40, 13.Sep 2021

In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data

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Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

🕔15:09, 12.Aug 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had

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Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

🕔12:55, 9.Jul 2021

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as

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What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

🕔08:42, 11.Jun 2021

Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,

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US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

🕔11:05, 27.May 2021

Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).

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2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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An update on our ESG scores

An update on our ESG scores

🕔08:10, 29.Apr 2021

In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG

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How to analyse discretionary macro funds

How to analyse discretionary macro funds

🕔15:07, 28.Apr 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

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The great rate debate

The great rate debate

🕔08:57, 2.Apr 2021

President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …

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Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

🕔08:16, 19.Mar 2021

According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …

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Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

🕔17:40, 20.Feb 2021

Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …

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DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition

DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition

🕔07:28, 28.Jan 2021

China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …

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#EmergingMarketDebt – Research Highlights

#EmergingMarketDebt – Research Highlights

🕔11:28, 28.Dec 2020

#EmergingMarketDebt In December of 2020, Capital Group published an outlook for emerging market debt. In this paper the global macro environment and the development of the pandemic are pointed to as the drivers for the returns of emerging market debt

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‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

🕔12:59, 10.Dec 2020

In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has

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Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔07:52, 4.Nov 2020

From Capital Group’s fixed income team  The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The

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Global Macro Policy Quarterly

Global Macro Policy Quarterly

🕔13:05, 6.Oct 2020

The Big Picture – Economics vs. Health trade-offs still dominate with big divergences  Historically unprecedented times. We are through another quarter battling Covid-19 with optimism around vaccine releases tempered by high global case incidences led by India, Brazil, and the US.

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Gravity wins in the end

Gravity wins in the end

🕔09:30, 29.Sep 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to

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Biden his time

Biden his time

🕔12:49, 28.Sep 2020

Global Macro Monthly  US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2

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Credit enjoying the summer lull

Credit enjoying the summer lull

🕔11:18, 17.Aug 2020

In Credit  Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs

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Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

🕔11:43, 11.Aug 2020

Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the

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Virus curve flattening, markets stabilizing, slow recovery

Virus curve flattening, markets stabilizing, slow recovery

🕔15:03, 17.Jul 2020

Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,

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Climate Change and Monetary Policy Initial takeaways

Climate Change and Monetary Policy Initial takeaways

🕔15:17, 26.Jun 2020

Climate change is one of the most significant structural force shaping the global economy. Its impact will be substantial and diverse, affecting all economic agents and sectors across the globe. This report compiled by the NGFS group of experts on

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The great market detachment from reality

The great market detachment from reality

🕔17:01, 8.Jun 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …

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The effectiveness and impact of the US policy response

The effectiveness and impact of the US policy response

🕔09:57, 4.Jun 2020

The international policy response to the severe shock that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered to the global economy has been immense. Total fiscal stimulus has exceeded $8tn, while international central banks have made 139 separate policy rate cuts1 so far

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Top 5 Research this week: Tag Asset Allocation in the lead

Top 5 Research this week: Tag Asset Allocation in the lead

🕔10:34, 30.May 2020

#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June

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Safe havens and QE in this week’s Top Five

Safe havens and QE in this week’s Top Five

🕔10:54, 23.May 2020

#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”

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Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔12:55, 22.May 2020

Fixed Income Perspectives The trajectory of global growth turned downward as governments scrambled to deal with the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The …

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EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

EZ: crisis does not hit all countries equally hard

🕔13:16, 21.May 2020

The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,

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We’re observing various indicators that continue to suggest caution

We’re observing various indicators that continue to suggest caution

🕔14:37, 15.May 2020

Tactical Asset Allocation Update Our focus right now is on a defensive capital preservation, and our equity scorecard is suggesting caution on the back of falling macro indicators. We believe that holding strategic allocations steady at a neutral position is

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Keep Calm and Carry On

Keep Calm and Carry On

🕔08:04, 14.May 2020

Insights – Global Macro Trends Every crisis has its human element, and how everyone responds to the problem at hand is usually what is most remembered. In 1939, on the verge of World War II, for example, the British government

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COVID-19 Update: Labour market deterioration to dampen rebound

COVID-19 Update: Labour market deterioration to dampen rebound

🕔09:36, 8.May 2020

Different labour market policies result in different recovery shapes.  In our most recent publication1 , we presented a number of real-time metrics which we would use to ground our forecasts in the economic data reality as it emerged. In this

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Looking for more fire-power already

Looking for more fire-power already

🕔09:50, 28.Apr 2020

Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations

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Global Macro Outlook

Global Macro Outlook

🕔11:47, 21.Apr 2020

April 2020  KEY FORECAST TRENDS As economic lockdowns spread across the world, the global economy faces a nearterm hit which is likely to dwarf that seen during the global financial crisis (GFC). But this downturn is not the result of

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