Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

🕔18:56, 30.jul 2019

Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September

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US, China firm, Europe feeble

US, China firm, Europe feeble

🕔15:03, 24.jul 2019

Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second

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US labor market report surprises markets

US labor market report surprises markets

🕔04:02, 6.jul 2019

Week Ahead The US labor market data for June was better than expected. 224,000 new jobs were created, well above market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The market had expected this figure to

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How low can interest rates go?

How low can interest rates go?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

Macro Weekly We expect the ECB to cut its main policy interest rates further. We expect a further 20bp of reductions (one 10bp reduction in September and another one early next year), which would take the key deposit rate to

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What’s up with inflation?

What’s up with inflation?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…

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Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

🕔14:21, 2.jul 2019

Occasional Paper Series This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions.

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Stick to the Plan

Stick to the Plan

🕔17:02, 30.jun 2019

Global Macro Trends With all the geopolitical ‘noise’ swirling around these days, there is a growing propensity in the investment community to react quickly to near-term news flows, or even head to the sidelines until there is greater visibility. Our

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Barometer of financial markets, June investment outlook

Barometer of financial markets, June investment outlook

🕔17:02, 30.jun 2019

Barometer: More pain to come Fresh trade tensions raise concerns about prospects for both the global economy and equity markets. 

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An ounce of prevention?

An ounce of prevention?

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?

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Knee jerk reaction

Knee jerk reaction

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Macro Weekly First reaction to re-escalting trade war visible Korea hit by more than the trade war? Central bankers promising (much) more easing

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What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Fixed Income Perspectives President Trump threw monkey wrenches into the global financial markets by suddenly escalating trade frictions with China, and then unexpectedly weaponizing tariffs against Mexico. As the hyenas advanced, the lion roared: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that

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The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

The U.S. labor market has shown sustained strength in the years since the global financial crisis. In assessing this performance, however, it is also important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. Have the new jobs

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EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

🕔15:06, 13.jun 2019

The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless

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More Macro Issues to the Fore

More Macro Issues to the Fore

🕔11:03, 11.jun 2019

We continue to believe that there is sufficient political will for the U.S. to stay the course regarding the trade conflict with China. While our base case is for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold, if the trade situation

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Raising the Stakes

Raising the Stakes

🕔07:00, 5.jun 2019

Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,

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Trade conflict or something else?

Trade conflict or something else?

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

Macro Weekly Eurozone economic sentiment improves Industrial production in Japan and Korea improves But China manufacturing PMI drops back again

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China economy: Green shoots or red herrings?

China economy: Green shoots or red herrings?

🕔05:00, 30.mei 2019

China macro update Defying global concerns around its growth, China’s first quarter GDP and March activity data provided further evidence that policy easing effects are coming through and growth is bottoming out, helped partly by an export recovery However, the

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What do shocking numbers tell us?

What do shocking numbers tell us?

🕔09:02, 27.mei 2019

Macro Weekly Germany’s Ifo plunges… While French business confidence improves Unexpected re-emergence of the trade conflict most unwelcome May to step down

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Central banks walk growth tightrope

Central banks walk growth tightrope

🕔09:02, 27.mei 2019

The Macro Report | May 2019 Global economic growth in 2019 is showing signs of picking up amid recovery in the eurozone and China, the world’s second-largest economy. The prospect of a deeper slowdown in China has been one of

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In Turbulent Times, European Institutions Turn to ETFs

In Turbulent Times, European Institutions Turn to ETFs

🕔15:02, 23.mei 2019

Allocations to exchange-traded funds by institutions currently investing in ETFs increased by 50% in 2018, totaling 15% of total assets among the 127 institutional investors participating in Greenwich Associates most recent European Exchange-Traded Funds Study. That growth was driven in

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At a crossroads

At a crossroads

🕔11:02, 20.mei 2019

Macro Weekly Manufacturing remains in the doldrums Disappointing Chinese April data after strong March Also a range of positives to note …

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Outlook for economy recovers only slowly

Outlook for economy recovers only slowly

🕔04:05, 11.mei 2019

Week Ahead Focus: New Yield Forecasts  On interest rate markets, concerns about an economic slowdown that goes beyond its current magnitude continue to prevail. Sentiment and risks, rather than available data, are crucial. In fact, first quarter GDP growth in

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Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?

Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?

🕔15:02, 8.mei 2019

Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de

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Takeaways from first-quarter earnings

Takeaways from first-quarter earnings

🕔13:04, 7.mei 2019

Weekly Commentary U.S. earnings growth has slowed markedly from 2018, but a surprisingly resilient first quarter supports our still-positive view on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve maintained its patient policy stance last week, and U.S. jobs gains and eurozone growth

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