This week we want to take a step back from assessing cyclical conditions and second-guessing central bankers to take a look at the transatlantic relationship, spurred by a view “from the outside”, a long essay by Ding Gang, senior editor
First things first, the seasonals With the most recent release of nonfarm payrolls, I saw a lot of the focus placed on the seasonal adjustment being the source of upside and I believe this misses the point. Yes, seasonals likely
Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to
Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%
Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a selloff. Hopes for less restrictive
Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate
Economische ontwikkelingen: ◼ Groeiverwachtingen krabbelen op, met name in Europa ◼ Inflatie daalt verder ◼ Forse daling kortlopende …
Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive
As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If
The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have
Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors
Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after
This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find
In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in
The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in
As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and
Schroders Recession Dashboard: what is it telling us? Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban? Which emerging markets are most at risk of defaulting on their overseas debts?
Changes in the underlying market dynamics over the last 1-2 years, Covid-19, inflation, geopolitics, create enormous challenges. Investing in a concentrated, secular growth portfolio might be the best answer for long term focused investors. At the investment seminar Jim Tierney,
Asia Macro: On March 27, Chinese authorities ordered a citywide lockdown in Shanghai. The lockdown was originally intended to take place in two phases, lasting eight days. However, things did not pan out this way. On April 9, the central
No doubt, war is a human tragedy. It requires heavy reflection on what has transpired and how it can be avoided in the future. However, the current situation also demands that, as fiduciaries, we delve deeply into what the implications
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data
Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as
Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,
Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).
April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
#EmergingMarketDebt In December of 2020, Capital Group published an outlook for emerging market debt. In this paper the global macro environment and the development of the pandemic are pointed to as the drivers for the returns of emerging market debt
In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has
From Capital Group’s fixed income team The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The
The Big Picture – Economics vs. Health trade-offs still dominate with big divergences Historically unprecedented times. We are through another quarter battling Covid-19 with optimism around vaccine releases tempered by high global case incidences led by India, Brazil, and the US.
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Global Macro Monthly US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2
In Credit Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs
Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the
Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,
Climate change is one of the most significant structural force shaping the global economy. Its impact will be substantial and diverse, affecting all economic agents and sectors across the globe. This report compiled by the NGFS group of experts on
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …
The international policy response to the severe shock that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered to the global economy has been immense. Total fiscal stimulus has exceeded $8tn, while international central banks have made 139 separate policy rate cuts1 so far
#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June
