The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data
Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had
As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as
Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,
Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).
April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG
Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
#EmergingMarketDebt In December of 2020, Capital Group published an outlook for emerging market debt. In this paper the global macro environment and the development of the pandemic are pointed to as the drivers for the returns of emerging market debt
In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has
From Capital Group’s fixed income team The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The
The Big Picture – Economics vs. Health trade-offs still dominate with big divergences Historically unprecedented times. We are through another quarter battling Covid-19 with optimism around vaccine releases tempered by high global case incidences led by India, Brazil, and the US.
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Global Macro Monthly US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2
In Credit Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs
Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the
Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,
Climate change is one of the most significant structural force shaping the global economy. Its impact will be substantial and diverse, affecting all economic agents and sectors across the globe. This report compiled by the NGFS group of experts on
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …
The international policy response to the severe shock that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered to the global economy has been immense. Total fiscal stimulus has exceeded $8tn, while international central banks have made 139 separate policy rate cuts1 so far
#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June
#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”
Fixed Income Perspectives The trajectory of global growth turned downward as governments scrambled to deal with the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The …
The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,
Tactical Asset Allocation Update Our focus right now is on a defensive capital preservation, and our equity scorecard is suggesting caution on the back of falling macro indicators. We believe that holding strategic allocations steady at a neutral position is
Insights – Global Macro Trends Every crisis has its human element, and how everyone responds to the problem at hand is usually what is most remembered. In 1939, on the verge of World War II, for example, the British government
Different labour market policies result in different recovery shapes. In our most recent publication1 , we presented a number of real-time metrics which we would use to ground our forecasts in the economic data reality as it emerged. In this
Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations
Webinar – Navigating through Uncertainty: The Macro Environment and Implications for Fixed Income Markets Recent market volatility, coupled with global uncertainty, has heightened concerns not only around the depth, but also the duration of the current economic crisis. While elements of
April 2020 KEY FORECAST TRENDS As economic lockdowns spread across the world, the global economy faces a nearterm hit which is likely to dwarf that seen during the global financial crisis (GFC). But this downturn is not the result of
#16 Again, the page visitors found most interesting this past week was our Events calendar page. In this calendar, you can find all kinds of webinars happening in the investment sector. For example, next week AQR Capital Management holds a
Insights – Global Macro Trends Without a doubt, 2019 was a year to remember; the question, though, is for what? On the one hand, the glass half empty community may want to point to the record level of global consternation,
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint he coronavirus casts a dark shadow over the world economy by threatening to derail the revival in growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show a steady
Monthly Investment Strategy – Central bank put, again… Twice in 10 days the Chinese authorities have changed the way new Covid-19 cases are counted in Hubei, which means that most of the “epidemic projection” exercises, which have been so popular in
Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
The expansion of the U.S. economy following the global financial crisis has been slower than those after previous post-war recessions. Since 2010, growth has averaged around 2.3%, compared with over 3.0% in previous expansions. But if the current business cycle
Macro Views Housing is poised to emerge from its slowdown on the back of three rate cuts, though broader economic conditions will likely moderate any pickup Tariffs have thrown a wrench into trade data. Soured global conditions have complicated global
Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Over 80 investors gathered in Houston in November to discuss and debate Invesco Fixed Income’s views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in Invesco Fixed Income’s investment process and our framework of
Given the heightened “noise” around geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainties, our strong suggestion is to play heavily to one’s strengths in today’s markets. All of us at KKR see a clear path forward to leverage the distinct areas of investment and operational expertise that
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
A little over a decade has passed since the 2008 global financial crisis, and central banks continue to apply unconventional monetary policy tools in their effort to maintain economic stability amid slowing growth. Quantitative easing (QE) alongside a now all-too-common
