Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

Macro Weekly It takes courage to forecast a recession

🕔11:55, 10.okt 2019

Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at

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Week Ahead – Important US macro data should show improvement

Week Ahead – Important US macro data should show improvement

🕔15:09, 8.okt 2019

Important US data is due for release next week. Markets will be watching to see if the weakening that began in August continues or if there is a recovery. We believe that the weak August figures were due to the

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Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019

Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019

🕔13:43, 19.sep 2019

 Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019

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World trade and manufacturing remain under pressure

World trade and manufacturing remain under pressure

🕔11:05, 13.sep 2019

Business confidence in manufacturing globally, as measured by the global PMI manufacturing improved a little in August but remains weak: 49.5 versus 49.2. This was partly thanks to an improvement in China’s Caixin index (50.4, up from 49.9). But the

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It Takes a Strong Woman to Stand Up to a Bully

It Takes a Strong Woman to Stand Up to a Bully

🕔17:06, 9.sep 2019

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen gives Trump a firm ‘no’ as he tries to buy Greenland, despite his lack of ‘green’ credentials. Following the market turbulence in the first half of August, financial markets had a quieter week. Volatility indicators,

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Economic Update

Economic Update

🕔08:52, 3.sep 2019

The second estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.0%, slightly below the first estimate of 2.1%. There were downward revisions to government spending, exports, inventories and housing that were partially offset by an upward revision to consumption.

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Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination

Dealing with the next downturn: From unconventional monetary policy to unprecedented policy coordination

🕔08:53, 21.aug 2019

Macro and market perspectives Unprecedented policies will be needed to respond to the next economic downturn. Monetary policy is almost exhausted as global interest rates plunge towards zero or below. Fiscal policy on its own will struggle to provide major

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Economic Update

Economic Update

🕔19:59, 19.aug 2019

This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Growth The first estimate for 2Q19 real GDP growth came in at 2.1%, a little stronger than the consensus expectation of 1.9%.

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Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

Macro Weekly: “Worse and worse”

🕔18:56, 30.jul 2019

Business confidence in manufacturing falls further, almost everywhere Eurozone heading for stagnation (or worse?) ECB to provide fresh stimulus in September

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US, China firm, Europe feeble

US, China firm, Europe feeble

🕔15:03, 24.jul 2019

Macro Weekly Recent US economic data paints a picture of an economy that is unlikely to fall into recession any time soon. The current expansion is easily going to be the longest on record (records going back to the second

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US labor market report surprises markets

US labor market report surprises markets

🕔04:02, 6.jul 2019

Week Ahead The US labor market data for June was better than expected. 224,000 new jobs were created, well above market expectations of 160,000. The unemployment rate rose slightly, from 3.6% to 3.7%. The market had expected this figure to

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How low can interest rates go?

How low can interest rates go?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

Macro Weekly We expect the ECB to cut its main policy interest rates further. We expect a further 20bp of reductions (one 10bp reduction in September and another one early next year), which would take the key deposit rate to

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What’s up with inflation?

What’s up with inflation?

🕔13:02, 5.jul 2019

US Watch Core inflation continues to disappoint to the downside, despite an apparently tight labour market While some transitory factors are at work, and base effects should push core PCE back near the Fed’s 2% target by year-end…

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Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

Macroprudential stress test of the euro area banking system

🕔14:21, 2.jul 2019

Occasional Paper Series This paper presents an approach to a macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising the 91 largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks’ reactions to changing economic conditions.

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Stick to the Plan

Stick to the Plan

🕔17:02, 30.jun 2019

Global Macro Trends With all the geopolitical ‘noise’ swirling around these days, there is a growing propensity in the investment community to react quickly to near-term news flows, or even head to the sidelines until there is greater visibility. Our

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Barometer of financial markets, June investment outlook

Barometer of financial markets, June investment outlook

🕔17:02, 30.jun 2019

Barometer: More pain to come Fresh trade tensions raise concerns about prospects for both the global economy and equity markets. 

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An ounce of prevention?

An ounce of prevention?

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Another week of dovish central bank rhetoric suggests that rate cuts are a near certainty in the US and Europe. Will easier monetary policy fulfil its objective of preventing recession, and what will be the implications for currency markets?

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Knee jerk reaction

Knee jerk reaction

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Macro Weekly First reaction to re-escalting trade war visible Korea hit by more than the trade war? Central bankers promising (much) more easing

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What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

What’s more Intimidating? Fed Minutes or a President’s Tweet?

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

Fixed Income Perspectives President Trump threw monkey wrenches into the global financial markets by suddenly escalating trade frictions with China, and then unexpectedly weaponizing tariffs against Mexico. As the hyenas advanced, the lion roared: Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that

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The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

The Great “Hollowing Out” of the U.S. Job Market

🕔11:02, 28.jun 2019

The U.S. labor market has shown sustained strength in the years since the global financial crisis. In assessing this performance, however, it is also important to consider the quality of the jobs that have been created. Have the new jobs

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EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

EM macro strategies benefit from the FED tailwind

🕔15:06, 13.jun 2019

The Weekly Brief Last week Lyxor Cross Asset Research team addressed the positive performance of CTA strategies during the market downturn, which started a few weeks ago and dragged global equities nearly -6% lower in May. This fact is nonetheless

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More Macro Issues to the Fore

More Macro Issues to the Fore

🕔11:03, 11.jun 2019

We continue to believe that there is sufficient political will for the U.S. to stay the course regarding the trade conflict with China. While our base case is for the Federal Reserve to remain on hold, if the trade situation

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Raising the Stakes

Raising the Stakes

🕔07:00, 5.jun 2019

Global Economic Outlook It is never easy to forecast economic trends, but the process is especially perilous at the moment. The sudden escalation of trade tensions that have originated from Washington is casting doubt over the outlook. If the escalation

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,

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Trade conflict or something else?

Trade conflict or something else?

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

Macro Weekly Eurozone economic sentiment improves Industrial production in Japan and Korea improves But China manufacturing PMI drops back again

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Zoek

Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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