Back to homepage

Tag "macro"

Resilience of the West

Resilience of the West

🕔15:00, 1.Mar 2023

This week we want to take a step back from assessing cyclical conditions and second-guessing central bankers to take a look at the transatlantic relationship, spurred by a view “from the outside”, a long essay by Ding Gang, senior editor

Read Full Article
Macro musings: employment and lending

Macro musings: employment and lending

🕔11:42, 24.Feb 2023

First things first, the seasonals  With the most recent release of nonfarm payrolls, I saw a lot of the focus placed on the seasonal adjustment being the source of upside and I believe this misses the point. Yes, seasonals likely

Read Full Article
Ukraine: A Year of War

Ukraine: A Year of War

🕔10:10, 24.Feb 2023

Macro Outlook This week marks a year since Russia’s President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, an event that pushed the global economy into a series of geopolitical and economic shocks, the consequences of which will have long lasting effects. Due to

Read Full Article
Quick take: Europe – recession inevitable?

Quick take: Europe – recession inevitable?

🕔12:11, 2.Feb 2023

Last autumn, I thought we were on the verge of a significant recession across the major European economies. I expected real gross domestic product1 (GDP) to contract in the second half of 2022 and then fall in 2023 by 1-2%

Read Full Article
Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔14:18, 1.Feb 2023

Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a selloff. Hopes for less restrictive

Read Full Article
Outlook for bonds brighter; growth concerns linger

Outlook for bonds brighter; growth concerns linger

🕔16:09, 31.Jan 2023

Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate

Read Full Article
2023 is positief gestart

2023 is positief gestart

🕔12:19, 16.Jan 2023

Economische ontwikkelingen: ◼ Groeiverwachtingen krabbelen op, met name in Europa ◼ Inflatie daalt verder ◼ Forse daling kortlopende …

Read Full Article
2023 US Macro Outlook

2023 US Macro Outlook

🕔10:53, 21.Dec 2022

Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive

Read Full Article
Investment Outlook 2023

Investment Outlook 2023

🕔12:53, 8.Dec 2022

As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If

Read Full Article
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q4 2022

🕔15:33, 5.Dec 2022

The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have

Read Full Article
2023 Macro Outlook

2023 Macro Outlook

🕔16:00, 1.Dec 2022

Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors

Read Full Article
Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

Economic outlook dampens as challenges mount

🕔15:55, 5.Nov 2022

Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after

Read Full Article
Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

Real-Time Macro Information and Bond Return Predictability: A Weighted Group Deep Learning Approach

🕔08:10, 27.Oct 2022

This paper proposes a weighted group neural network model and reexamines whether treasury bond returns are predictable when real-time, instead of fully-revised, macro information is used. Real-time macro vintage data and news-based topic attention are taken into account. We find

Read Full Article
Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

Global outlook: all eyes on where US inflation lands

🕔16:18, 17.Oct 2022

In this paper, currency analyst Jens Søndergaard answers key questions on the outlook for the global economy, covering the Russia/Ukraine conflict, inflation and currency views. How has the Russia/Ukraine conflict impacted your global macro-outlook? So much of the macro-outlook in

Read Full Article
2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

2022 Mid-Year Outlook: Recession Risk on the Rise

🕔08:40, 2.Sep 2022

The bar for monetary authorities to make a dovish pivot is quite high, as evidenced by recent statements by Chair Powell, et al. Even if there was a pivot later this year it would still imply a decent moderation in

Read Full Article
Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

Walk, Don’t Run: Mid-Year Update 2022

🕔10:44, 28.Jul 2022

As we have highlighted for some time, our macro viewpoint remains that this cycle is different. Specifically, we see uneven supply constraints, higher levels of interest rates, and heightened geopolitical risks against a backdrop of slower real economic growth and

Read Full Article
Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in May 2022

🕔12:54, 23.May 2022

Schroders Recession Dashboard: what is it telling us? Deforestation: what could be the market impact of new EU ban?  Which emerging markets are most at risk of defaulting on their overseas debts?

Read Full Article

AllianceBernstein – Seminar – Bridge Over Troubled Waters

🕔14:16, 16.May 2022

Changes in the underlying market dynamics over the last 1-2 years, Covid-19, inflation, geopolitics, create enormous challenges. Investing in a concentrated, secular growth portfolio might be the best answer for long term focused investors. At the investment seminar Jim Tierney,

Read Full Article
China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

China: Headwinds remain in place for Q2 as PBOC delays easing

🕔13:19, 3.May 2022

Asia Macro: On March 27, Chinese authorities ordered a citywide lockdown in Shanghai. The lockdown was originally intended to take place in two phases, lasting eight days. However, things did not pan out this way. On April 9, the central

Read Full Article
State of Play

State of Play

🕔16:55, 12.Apr 2022

No doubt, war is a human tragedy. It requires heavy reflection on what has transpired and how it can be avoided in the future. However, the current situation also demands that, as fiduciaries, we delve deeply into what the implications

Read Full Article
Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔16:02, 4.Mar 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

Read Full Article
Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

Uzbekistan: Reform Drive Underpins Improving Investment Case

🕔11:02, 16.Feb 2022

Uzbekistan has become a notable emerging markets (EM) turnaround story, with an ambitious reform program that has ushered in economic openness, improved macroeconomic stability and an inflow of …

Read Full Article
2022 US Macro Outlook

2022 US Macro Outlook

🕔08:38, 11.Feb 2022

The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what

Read Full Article
The coup the graph

The coup the graph

🕔16:02, 10.Dec 2021

Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But

Read Full Article
How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

How To Analyse Discretionary Macro Fund

🕔08:05, 26.Nov 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

Read Full Article
Pandemic Guerilla

Pandemic Guerilla

🕔12:40, 13.Sep 2021

In hindsight, Jay Powell is probably very happy to have been so elusive at Jackson Hole on the timeline for “tapering” after the disappointing US job numbers for August. It is not the first time this year that payroll data

Read Full Article
Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

Favouring TIPS amid uncertain inflation outlook

🕔15:09, 12.Aug 2021

Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had

Read Full Article
Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’?

🕔12:55, 9.Jul 2021

As one of the world’s largest economies the US is a key focus for investors. With every country attempting to return to normality following the coronavirus pandemic, we are monitoring when US economic activity might get back on track, as

Read Full Article
What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

What Picasso Can Teach Us About Investing

🕔08:42, 11.Jun 2021

Cubism changed art by depicting objects from multiple perspectives. Investors can learn from this approach by looking beyond the narrow confines of the financial industry and seeking a wide range of viewpoints rooted in the real world, argues Tom Coutts,

Read Full Article
US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

US: Biden’s Rebalancing Acts

🕔11:05, 27.May 2021

Macro Insight: In late March, President Biden announced details of a further package – the $2.3tn American Jobs Plan. This set out major spending plans and tax changes for the US economy over the next 15 years (Figure 1).

Read Full Article
2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

Read Full Article
An update on our ESG scores

An update on our ESG scores

🕔08:10, 29.Apr 2021

In February 2018, Templeton Global Macro (TGM) released its original paper on the topic of environmental, social and governance (ESG) factors in sovereign fixed income investing. The paper (Global Macro Shifts—issue 9 [GMS-9]) explored the team’s novel approach to ESG

Read Full Article
How to analyse discretionary macro funds

How to analyse discretionary macro funds

🕔15:07, 28.Apr 2021

Whilst the definition is fairly broad, a traditional DMAC investment approach aims to build a balanced portfolio of directional trades that mix traditional and idiosyncratic premia (betas) by taking risk-on/risk-off positions using fundamental macro and market analyses that are not

Read Full Article
The great rate debate

The great rate debate

🕔08:57, 2.Apr 2021

President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …

Read Full Article
Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

Brightening growth prospects for 2021 underscore regional disparities

🕔08:16, 19.Mar 2021

According to our forecasts, Asia1 is projected to lead the global economic recovery in 2021. On a GDP-weighted basis, the region is expected to expand by 6.6% this year, up from -1.0% in 2020 (Chart 1). Excluding China, Asia will expand at a slower rate of 4.7% in 2021, up from …

Read Full Article
Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities

🕔17:40, 20.Feb 2021

Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …

Read Full Article
DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition

DCEP may play a key part in China’s long-term economic transition

🕔07:28, 28.Jan 2021

China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …

Read Full Article
#EmergingMarketDebt – Research Highlights

#EmergingMarketDebt – Research Highlights

🕔11:28, 28.Dec 2020

#EmergingMarketDebt In December of 2020, Capital Group published an outlook for emerging market debt. In this paper the global macro environment and the development of the pandemic are pointed to as the drivers for the returns of emerging market debt

Read Full Article
‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

‘It’s inflation Jim – but not as we know it’.

🕔12:59, 10.Dec 2020

In Credit There were two clear themes unfolding in macro markets in the last week. The first is rising inflation expectations and the second is a lower US dollar. In a period when the quantity of money (money supply) has

Read Full Article
Quarterly macro and market insights

Quarterly macro and market insights

🕔07:52, 4.Nov 2020

From Capital Group’s fixed income team  The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The

Read Full Article
Global Macro Policy Quarterly

Global Macro Policy Quarterly

🕔13:05, 6.Oct 2020

The Big Picture – Economics vs. Health trade-offs still dominate with big divergences  Historically unprecedented times. We are through another quarter battling Covid-19 with optimism around vaccine releases tempered by high global case incidences led by India, Brazil, and the US.

Read Full Article
Gravity wins in the end

Gravity wins in the end

🕔09:30, 29.Sep 2020

Research & Strategy Insights  The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to

Read Full Article
Biden his time

Biden his time

🕔12:49, 28.Sep 2020

Global Macro Monthly  US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2

Read Full Article
Credit enjoying the summer lull

Credit enjoying the summer lull

🕔11:18, 17.Aug 2020

In Credit  Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs

Read Full Article
Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

Investing in the first in, first out theme: opportunities in Asia

🕔11:43, 11.Aug 2020

Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the

Read Full Article
Virus curve flattening, markets stabilizing, slow recovery

Virus curve flattening, markets stabilizing, slow recovery

🕔15:03, 17.Jul 2020

Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,

Read Full Article
Climate Change and Monetary Policy Initial takeaways

Climate Change and Monetary Policy Initial takeaways

🕔15:17, 26.Jun 2020

Climate change is one of the most significant structural force shaping the global economy. Its impact will be substantial and diverse, affecting all economic agents and sectors across the globe. This report compiled by the NGFS group of experts on

Read Full Article
The great market detachment from reality

The great market detachment from reality

🕔17:01, 8.Jun 2020

Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …

Read Full Article
The effectiveness and impact of the US policy response

The effectiveness and impact of the US policy response

🕔09:57, 4.Jun 2020

The international policy response to the severe shock that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered to the global economy has been immense. Total fiscal stimulus has exceeded $8tn, while international central banks have made 139 separate policy rate cuts1 so far

Read Full Article
Top 5 Research this week: Tag Asset Allocation in the lead

Top 5 Research this week: Tag Asset Allocation in the lead

🕔10:34, 30.May 2020

#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June

Read Full Article

SEARCH