Macro and Market Perspectives We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and one-off setbacks
A sweet spot, but keep a sharp eye on the macro side Risky assets have been in a very strong uptrend since the beginning of the year. The key question now is, where do we go from here? There are
Macro Quarterly Calm after the storm—or before a new one? After the volatility of late 2018, 2019 has proven much kinder to global risk assets thus far. Ironically, in our view it was precisely the severity of market concerns about
Research & Strategy Insights March macro data have been mixed in the US (manufacturing output contracting and surveys softening vs. elevated in services) and the Eurozone (disappointing Purchasing Managers indices and core inflation vs. more upbeat domestic surveys) In March,
De groei van de eurozone-economie zwakt af. Italië bevindt zich in een recessie, terwijl Duitsland deze nipt wist te vermijden. Andere eurolanden, zoals Spanje en Nederland, doen het beter. De binnenlandse bestedingen blijven daar op peil. De ECB zal de
Introducing our Economic Cycle Indicator and how we apply it to the current environment The recent deterioration in high-frequency data has reignited concern about the health of the Chinese economy. However, wide divergences between some official data, such as GDP,
The German economic cycle in question Overall, we see German GDP growing by 0.9% in 2019. Risks are skewed to the downside and are primarily external.
Macro perspectives The deceleration in economic growth – and the entry of the US into the late stage of its expansion – casts a shadow on corporate profit margins. This year we could see a US-led earnings recession – typically
Global Macro Insights In response to a surge in client questions we have fielded since our 2019 Outlook piece was published in early January, we are taking “another swing at the plate” to address four key issues where there appears
Research & Strategy Insights US macro indicators (fourth quarter GDP and business surveys) are holding up but “cross currents” have justified a US Federal Reserve pause Eurozone activity indicators remain bleak and we have downgraded our 2019 growth forecast to
Notes from a Region of Depressed Expectations Paltry data and frustrations in Brussels make for a dreary eurozone outlook, although US/China trade talks provide some hope for markets.
Weekly Commentary We see room for ongoing U.S. dollar strength versus most developed market peers and further depreciation against EM currencies. Global stocks rose on hopes of progress in U.S.-China trade talks. Lower oil output in January pushed oil prices
It’s surely a coincidence that the recent market rally occurred during the partial shutdown of the U.S. government. More conventional rally catalysts were the over-sold conditions created by excessive pessimism about growth and a dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.
Growth The third and final estimate of 3Q U.S. GDP growth dipped 0.1% from the prior estimate to 3.4% q/q saar, decelerating from the 4.2% pace in 2Q. The estimate was revised down due to weaker personal consumption expenditures (PCE)
A delicate balance Forecasting 2019 means interpreting the interactions between economic growth, interest rates, and risky assets. Global growth is slowing. In the United States, waning fiscal stimulus measures and higher rates will trigger the pace of expansion to moderate
Is this asset class working for anyone? The past 10 years have been as mixed of a mixed bag as you can get, with some good performance, some poor performance (2018 chief among them), and a whole lot of middling
Macro Monthly Fed policy tightening was a headwind for risk assets in 2018, particularly as broader investor concerns about slowing global growth increased towards the end of the year In an important regime shift, the statement and press conference of
The incoming information that has become available since the Governing Council’s decision to end net asset purchases in December 2018 has continued to be weaker than expected on account of softer external demand and some country and sector-specific factors. In
Invesco Investment Insights Market-structure improvements, better access and development of the asset-management sector to make investing in China A-shares easier. Active strategies, including quantitative investing, in the A-share market can help enhance returns, while local experts can advise on how
Investment Highlights De groei van de eurozone-economie zwakte in het vierde kwartaal verder af. De afkoeling werd verwacht omdat diverse vertrouwensindicatoren al langer op een afzwakking duiden. Er zijn wel grote verschillen tussen de landen. In Spanje kwam de economische
While macro data have been scant and mixed, the US Federal Reserve surprised with a very dovish tone Eurozone GDP ended 2018 in line with our expectations, with Italy in recession but France and Spain showing upside resilience. We see
Cross Asset Investment Strategy 2019 begins with a synchronised global slowdown. All recently published data, particularly trade and manufacturing data, show that economic activity is slowing in all countries simultaneously. In China, exports and imports contracted sharply in December, as
Twee jaar geleden verliep het economische herstel gelijkmatig in alle regio's, en nu lijkt ook de economische vertraging alle regio's te treffen. In de Verenigde Staten beginnen de zwakkere prestaties van de auto-industrie en de vastgoedsector navolging te krijgen in
Macro and Market Perspectives We see global growth slowing as the expansion enters its final stage. The slowdown comes as the US economy becomes a drag rather than a driver. It is driven by elevated uncertainty around policy plans, the
