From Capital Group’s fixed income team The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The
The Big Picture – Economics vs. Health trade-offs still dominate with big divergences Historically unprecedented times. We are through another quarter battling Covid-19 with optimism around vaccine releases tempered by high global case incidences led by India, Brazil, and the US.
Research & Strategy Insights The sense of disappointment on the state of the recovery is particularly acute in Europe, where the traditional macro indicators, such as the PMIs or the forward-looking components of the national surveys, are already pointing to
Global Macro Monthly US President Donald Trump has already laid claim to the fastest economic recovery in US history. In terms of quarterly growth rates, this will surely be the case. Following the steepest contraction on record, data in Q2
In Credit Core government bond yields were marginally higher with the rise in risk sentiment. Non-farm payroll in the US hit a three-month streak of positive gains, with jobs rising and unemployment falling more than expected (rate now 10.2% vs
Overview: The Asia region was the first part of the world to be hit by the Covid-19 outbreak, but it has also been the first region to navigate a way out of it, thanks to its good management of the
Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,
Climate change is one of the most significant structural force shaping the global economy. Its impact will be substantial and diverse, affecting all economic agents and sectors across the globe. This report compiled by the NGFS group of experts on
Cross Asset Investment Strategy The dichotomy between the false market tranquillity and the high level of uncertainty about the length of the crisis and its long-term implications is striking. In our view, we are …
The international policy response to the severe shock that the COVID-19 pandemic has delivered to the global economy has been immense. Total fiscal stimulus has exceeded $8tn, while international central banks have made 139 separate policy rate cuts1 so far
#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June
#21 A variety of publications in this week’s Top Five, please see below the best read publications: On the fifth place, Blackrock‘s Weekly Commentary “Europe bond outlook under review“: Including their weekly chart: Neuberger Berman‘s “Asset Allocation Committee Outlook 2Q20”
Fixed Income Perspectives The trajectory of global growth turned downward as governments scrambled to deal with the social and economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. The …
The GDP data of the EU countries for 1Q developed very differently. Interestingly, there is no clear correlation between the duration of the quarantine measures taken and the economic damage caused. It is noticeable that countries such as Austria, Germany,
Tactical Asset Allocation Update Our focus right now is on a defensive capital preservation, and our equity scorecard is suggesting caution on the back of falling macro indicators. We believe that holding strategic allocations steady at a neutral position is
Insights – Global Macro Trends Every crisis has its human element, and how everyone responds to the problem at hand is usually what is most remembered. In 1939, on the verge of World War II, for example, the British government
Different labour market policies result in different recovery shapes. In our most recent publication1 , we presented a number of real-time metrics which we would use to ground our forecasts in the economic data reality as it emerged. In this
Gilles Moëc's Macrocast As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year. Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations
Webinar – Navigating through Uncertainty: The Macro Environment and Implications for Fixed Income Markets Recent market volatility, coupled with global uncertainty, has heightened concerns not only around the depth, but also the duration of the current economic crisis. While elements of
April 2020 KEY FORECAST TRENDS As economic lockdowns spread across the world, the global economy faces a nearterm hit which is likely to dwarf that seen during the global financial crisis (GFC). But this downturn is not the result of
#16 Again, the page visitors found most interesting this past week was our Events calendar page. In this calendar, you can find all kinds of webinars happening in the investment sector. For example, next week AQR Capital Management holds a
Insights – Global Macro Trends Without a doubt, 2019 was a year to remember; the question, though, is for what? On the one hand, the glass half empty community may want to point to the record level of global consternation,
This weekly update provides a snapshot of changes in the economy and markets and their implications for investors. Risks: Impacts from COVID-19 may cause a global recession. Political headlines may foment market volatility. Earnings growth has slowed and could stall
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint he coronavirus casts a dark shadow over the world economy by threatening to derail the revival in growth which began in the latter part of 2019. Economic indicators up to January continued to show a steady
Monthly Investment Strategy – Central bank put, again… Twice in 10 days the Chinese authorities have changed the way new Covid-19 cases are counted in Hubei, which means that most of the “epidemic projection” exercises, which have been so popular in
Quarterly macro and market insights Our macro outlook for 2020 is modestly constructive. Recent clarity around certain geopolitical risks has been helpful. Specifically, progress in the initial phase of a US-China trade deal and a decisive result in the December
The expansion of the U.S. economy following the global financial crisis has been slower than those after previous post-war recessions. Since 2010, growth has averaged around 2.3%, compared with over 3.0% in previous expansions. But if the current business cycle
Macro Views Housing is poised to emerge from its slowdown on the back of three rate cuts, though broader economic conditions will likely moderate any pickup Tariffs have thrown a wrench into trade data. Soured global conditions have complicated global
Invesco Fixed Income White Paper Series Over 80 investors gathered in Houston in November to discuss and debate Invesco Fixed Income’s views on global macroeconomic trends. Macro themes play an important role in Invesco Fixed Income’s investment process and our framework of
Given the heightened “noise” around geopolitics and macroeconomic uncertainties, our strong suggestion is to play heavily to one’s strengths in today’s markets. All of us at KKR see a clear path forward to leverage the distinct areas of investment and operational expertise that
Weekly view from the desk Although some regarded last week’s U.S. non-farm payroll report as disappointing, we regarded it as a solid indicator of what the U.S. economy needs to maintain its trend-like growth. Last year’s monthly payroll average of
Spectrum Asset Management: 2020 Outlook Macro and market Some macro risks—such as Brexit—appear to be de-escalating, but uncertainties continue; trade war negotiations are likely to overhang sentiment into the United States election. The U.S. election process should be spirited and
A little over a decade has passed since the 2008 global financial crisis, and central banks continue to apply unconventional monetary policy tools in their effort to maintain economic stability amid slowing growth. Quantitative easing (QE) alongside a now all-too-common
Person of the Year 2020? Bolstered by election success, Conservatives dream of PM Boris being next year’s award winner. Global bond yields traded higher towards the end of this week as investors seized on constructive headlines pertaining to a China
External demand showed early signs of recovery; domestic construction activity growth came in stronger than expected. Nov MTD IPP coal consumption growth remained high at 15.8% YoY despite a warmer Nov this year. Capacity utilization rates of steel, coal and
What is it? The Philly Fed Index is the results of a survey of roughly 250 companies with over 100 employees from the Third Federal Reserve District. This is basically a subcomponent of the ISM Manufacturing Index, which is based
We published a global 2020 Outlook last week instead of a weekly. I argued that the global economy will remain weak- ish in the short term, but show improvement in the course of 2020. If my assessment is right we
Weekly commentary • We identified the protectionist push as a key market driver this year but we did not foresee the massive move down in global yields. • We see growth stabilizing and gradually picking up over the next 6
Macroeconomic Outlook 2020 Key points • Fears of a 2019 global recession have abated as major macro risks have started fading. • However, for 2020 we think actual GDP growth is unlikely to be able to exceed potential in the
Monthly Investment Brief With equity markets up by an average 20% worldwide, and with all asset classes into positive territory, the question inevitably rises: what to do now? Take some profits or stay invested?
LGT Beacon – Global macro and market review Our constructive positioning is paying off: risk sentiment has started to improve and markets have duly rallied to new highs. Stable corporate revenue growth bodes well for future earnings, the macro data continues to
Macro Outlook – Global growth continues to face headwinds from a downturn in the industrial cycle and uncertainty related to trade tensions. Nevertheless, the trend in the global Nowcast remains broadly stable at around 2% – US growth remains robust
Summary – Equities, and other risk assets, continues to price in a more positive economic outlook than the one which we are foreseeing The stabilization which we have seen in tactical macro data over October is in our view not
October 2019 As we start the final quarter of 2019, volatility has increased relative to the first half of the year, equity markets remain strong year-to-date, and a bid for safe-haven assets has been maintained. Monetary policy has undergone a dramatic shift over
Eurozone business confidence stabilised in October according to preliminary data. The Markit PMI for manufacturing was unchanged at 45.7. Still nothing to write home about, of course, but it could have been worse. PMI data have not been released for
Risk is a thorny word. In its simplest form, it means exposure to danger, but in an organizational or business context, it takes on a much more complex definition.
Contagion may be spreading through the global economy The global economy continues to face headwinds, and risks are mounting. Trade tensions are spreading from country to country, and increasingly, manufacturing weakness is starting to infect the much larger service sector.
Economists are not very good at forecasting recessions. I really should rephrase that. Economists are very good at ‘forecasting’ recessions, but usually only when the downturn has actually already started. They (perhaps I should say: we) are not good at
Important US data is due for release next week. Markets will be watching to see if the weakening that began in August continues or if there is a recovery. We believe that the weak August figures were due to the
Infographic: A snapshot of the world economy in September 2019
