How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,
Preferred Sectors: Health Care, Technology and Consumer
Buy-to-let is, in de omvang waarin het zich de afgelopen jaren in Nederland heeft voorgedaan, een nieuw verschijnsel. Dat particuliere beleggers op grote schaal koopwoningen kopen om die woningen vervolgens te verhuren, laat zien dat de verhoudingen op de woningmarkt
Cross asset Investment Strategy We investigate the determinants of international stock market co-movements, shedding light on the relevance of politics-related factors. We propose a new characterization for the link connecting politics and financial markets, disentangling two different components: political risk
I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.
In Credit June Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of
Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of
For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P
Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
The trade conflict between China and US is back in focus. On 10th May, US took tariffs rates on USD250 billion of Chinese exports to 25% from 10%. Retaliation swiftly followed. China raised tariffs on USD60 billion of US goods
For the past several years most investors have faced a simple but abiding problem: asset markets have been climbing for close to a decade and now nothing looks cheap. However, in 2018 things began to change. During the year, as
Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered
The Question Remains: Zero Real or Zero Nominal Yields? In our last interest-rate focused paper (Fall 2018), we hypothesized that G3 rates were temporarily boosted by fears of an acceleration in growth and an associated normalization of central bank monetary
Weekly Bond Bulletin Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not
Weekly Commentary Last week’s selloff is a reminder of the potential for late-cycle bouts of volatility. We remain risk-on, yet advocate maintaining portfolio ballast. The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, dialing up pressure on China
Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de
Our conference #UBPInvestmentOutlook had a full house in London last week! Our experts shared their 2020 outlook for the global economy and more specifically for the UK. Thank you all for coming!
Zal zijn laatste woorden aan mij nooit vergeten. Over woorden gesproken: toen ik Volcker de eerste keer ontmoette, was zijn eerste vraag:"Hoe is het met Andre Szász?" Ik had 15 minuten met hem. Het werd 1,5 uur! Er was een klik. RIP
De Asset Allocatie Awards komen er weer aan! Nominaties komen deze week, winnaars op 4 februari 2020... Hier een sfeer inpressie van vorig jaar -> https://t.co/c36HWpyGVx
SAVE THE DATE 4 Februari 2020! #AAA2020 #JubileumEditie https://t.co/RWVaNl0PCk
