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International Stock Market Co-Movements and Politics-Related Risks
Cross asset Investment Strategy We investigate the determinants of international stock market co-movements, shedding light on the relevance of politics-related factors. We propose a new characterization for the link connecting politics and financial markets, disentangling two different components: political risk
Mid-Year Investment Outlook
I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning
The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.
Falling off a wall of worry?
In Credit June Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of
No shortcuts
Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of
Review of markets over May 2019
For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P
Genuine uncertainties according to the latest indicators
Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
Monthly update on Chinese markets
The trade conflict between China and US is back in focus. On 10th May, US took tariffs rates on USD250 billion of Chinese exports to 25% from 10%. Retaliation swiftly followed. China raised tariffs on USD60 billion of US goods
Should you move your portfolio into cash?
For the past several years most investors have faced a simple but abiding problem: asset markets have been climbing for close to a decade and now nothing looks cheap. However, in 2018 things began to change. During the year, as
European Elections outcome: a more fragmented Parliament with a still pro-European majority
Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered
Countdown to Zero—The Final Chapters
The Question Remains: Zero Real or Zero Nominal Yields? In our last interest-rate focused paper (Fall 2018), we hypothesized that G3 rates were temporarily boosted by fears of an acceleration in growth and an associated normalization of central bank monetary
Trading on trade wars
Weekly Bond Bulletin Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
Multi-asset markets outlook
In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not
Lessons on low market volatility
Weekly Commentary Last week’s selloff is a reminder of the potential for late-cycle bouts of volatility. We remain risk-on, yet advocate maintaining portfolio ballast. The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, dialing up pressure on China
Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?
Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint
With equity markets strengthening and the Fed on hold there is talk of a surge, or melt-up in markets. Signs of economic recovery, low inflation and easier central bank policy in Europe and Asia reinforce the Goldilocks narrative. Macro headwinds
Equity Market Ceiling or the Beginning of a Rally?
Strategy Espresso Markets have rallied but we haven’t seen investors go back into equities. Indeed, European-domiciled ETF flows show that fixed income was still the favoured asset class in April with $4.5 billion of inflows versus $820 million out of equity. Year to
Takeaways from first-quarter earnings
Weekly Commentary U.S. earnings growth has slowed markedly from 2018, but a surprisingly resilient first quarter supports our still-positive view on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve maintained its patient policy stance last week, and U.S. jobs gains and eurozone growth
Fundamental Trends and Dislocated Markets
We describe two approaches to global macro investing: a systematic strategy focused on identifying fundamental trends and an opportunistic strategy capitalizing on extreme dislocations between prices and fundamentals. We explore the potential benefits of combining these approaches into a single
Expect a tougher climb
Nuveen’s 2019 Outlook, published in early December, told investors to expect a tougher climb. Since then, we’ve experienced a selloff in stocks and other risk assets followed by a strong recovery in the first quarter. That might have been even
A renewed spring in Europe’s step
Macro and Market Perspectives We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and one-off setbacks
Who is on the other side?
Being successful as an active investment manager requires seeking, finding, and capitalizing on inefficiencies in the market. Markets cannot be perfectly efficient because there are costs to gathering information and reflecting it in prices. Some forces push prices toward efficiency.
Asset Allocation Consensus Augustus
