I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.
In Credit June Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of
Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of
For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P
Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
The trade conflict between China and US is back in focus. On 10th May, US took tariffs rates on USD250 billion of Chinese exports to 25% from 10%. Retaliation swiftly followed. China raised tariffs on USD60 billion of US goods
Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered
The Question Remains: Zero Real or Zero Nominal Yields? In our last interest-rate focused paper (Fall 2018), we hypothesized that G3 rates were temporarily boosted by fears of an acceleration in growth and an associated normalization of central bank monetary
Weekly Bond Bulletin Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not
Weekly Commentary Last week’s selloff is a reminder of the potential for late-cycle bouts of volatility. We remain risk-on, yet advocate maintaining portfolio ballast. The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, dialing up pressure on China
Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de
With equity markets strengthening and the Fed on hold there is talk of a surge, or melt-up in markets. Signs of economic recovery, low inflation and easier central bank policy in Europe and Asia reinforce the Goldilocks narrative. Macro headwinds
Strategy Espresso Markets have rallied but we haven’t seen investors go back into equities. Indeed, European-domiciled ETF flows show that fixed income was still the favoured asset class in April with $4.5 billion of inflows versus $820 million out of equity. Year to
Weekly Commentary U.S. earnings growth has slowed markedly from 2018, but a surprisingly resilient first quarter supports our still-positive view on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve maintained its patient policy stance last week, and U.S. jobs gains and eurozone growth
We describe two approaches to global macro investing: a systematic strategy focused on identifying fundamental trends and an opportunistic strategy capitalizing on extreme dislocations between prices and fundamentals. We explore the potential benefits of combining these approaches into a single
Nuveen’s 2019 Outlook, published in early December, told investors to expect a tougher climb. Since then, we’ve experienced a selloff in stocks and other risk assets followed by a strong recovery in the first quarter. That might have been even
Macro and Market Perspectives We expect Europe to shake off its current soft patch later this year, getting a boost from China’s stimulus efforts and any resulting rebound in global manufacturing. If the global growth backdrop improves and one-off setbacks
Weekly Commentary We are cautious on U.S. Treasuries in the short term after the recent rally. Yet we still advocate exposure to build portfolio resilience. March jobs growth and a slew of revised data improved the outlook for U.S. first-quarter
House View Q2 2019 According to the IMF, global growth was estimated to be 3.7 per cent in 2018, a similar rate of increase to that seen in 2017. When taken together, the past two years represent the strongest period
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts. Providing timely information across a broad array of markets and investment topics, this guide serves as a helpful resource in
Trade disputes and country-specific issues dampen the global growth outlook and lead to elevated volatility in financial markets. Central banks have postponed their expected rate hikes and safe haven investments are moreover benefiting from the threat of a hard Brexit.
Asset Allocation Consensus Equities June 2019 on Youtube: https://t.co/WD3mMy1JgI
