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Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates

🕔12:43, 3.okt 2019

This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration

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USD: environment continues to support the dollar

USD: environment continues to support the dollar

🕔17:05, 26.sep 2019

The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could

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Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns

Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns

🕔07:36, 18.sep 2019

Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,

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Global Equity Ratings

Global Equity Ratings

🕔11:47, 2.sep 2019

Preferred Sectors: Health Care, Technology and Consumer

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Buy-to-let verdringt starter van de koopwoningmarkt

Buy-to-let verdringt starter van de koopwoningmarkt

🕔17:38, 30.aug 2019

Buy-to-let is, in de omvang waarin het zich de afgelopen jaren in Nederland heeft voorgedaan, een nieuw verschijnsel. Dat particuliere beleggers op grote schaal koopwoningen kopen om die woningen vervolgens te verhuren, laat zien dat de verhoudingen op de woningmarkt

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Global Equity Ratings

Global Equity Ratings

🕔04:04, 20.jun 2019 Lees het volledige artikel
International Stock Market Co-Movements and Politics-Related Risks

International Stock Market Co-Movements and Politics-Related Risks

🕔10:15, 19.jun 2019

Cross asset Investment Strategy We investigate the determinants of international stock market co-movements, shedding light on the relevance of politics-related factors. We propose a new characterization for the link connecting politics and financial markets, disentangling two different components: political risk

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Mid-Year Investment Outlook

Mid-Year Investment Outlook

🕔11:03, 11.jun 2019

I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear

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Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning

Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning

🕔15:03, 6.jun 2019

The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.

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Falling off a wall of worry?

Falling off a wall of worry?

🕔15:03, 6.jun 2019

In Credit June  Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of

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No shortcuts

No shortcuts

🕔11:03, 5.jun 2019

Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of

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Review of markets over May 2019

Review of markets over May 2019

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P

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Genuine uncertainties according to the latest indicators

Genuine uncertainties according to the latest indicators

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,

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Monthly update on Chinese markets

Monthly update on Chinese markets

🕔13:02, 4.jun 2019

The trade conflict between China and US is back in focus. On 10th May, US took tariffs rates on USD250 billion of Chinese exports to 25% from 10%. Retaliation swiftly followed. China raised tariffs on USD60 billion of US goods

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Should you move your portfolio into cash?

Should you move your portfolio into cash?

🕔05:00, 30.mei 2019

For the past several years most investors have faced a simple but abiding problem: asset markets have been climbing for close to a decade and now nothing looks cheap. However, in 2018 things began to change. During the year, as

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European Elections outcome: a more fragmented Parliament with a still pro-European majority

European Elections outcome: a more fragmented Parliament with a still pro-European majority

🕔14:02, 28.mei 2019

Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered

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Countdown to Zero—The Final Chapters

Countdown to Zero—The Final Chapters

🕔11:02, 28.mei 2019

The Question Remains: Zero Real or Zero Nominal Yields? In our last interest-rate focused paper (Fall 2018), we hypothesized that G3 rates were temporarily boosted by fears of an acceleration in growth and an associated normalization of central bank monetary

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Trading on trade wars

Trading on trade wars

🕔11:02, 20.mei 2019

Weekly Bond Bulletin Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?

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Multi-asset markets outlook

Multi-asset markets outlook

🕔17:02, 14.mei 2019

In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not

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Lessons on low market volatility

Lessons on low market volatility

🕔14:02, 14.mei 2019

Weekly Commentary Last week’s selloff is a reminder of the potential for late-cycle bouts of volatility. We remain risk-on, yet advocate maintaining portfolio ballast. The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, dialing up pressure on China

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Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?

Beleggersdilemma: Uitstappen, blijven zitten of bijkopen?

🕔15:02, 8.mei 2019

Aandelen zijn dit jaar sterk hersteld van de forse daling van de koersen die we eind 2018 zagen. Maar hoe komt het dat de koersen dit jaar zo hard zijn gestegen? Zijn de vooruitzichten opeens zoveel beter? We krijgen de

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Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

Economic and Strategy Viewpoint

🕔15:02, 8.mei 2019

With equity markets strengthening and the Fed on hold there is talk of a surge, or melt-up in markets. Signs of economic recovery, low inflation and easier central bank policy in Europe and Asia reinforce the Goldilocks narrative. Macro headwinds

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Equity Market Ceiling or the Beginning of a Rally?

Equity Market Ceiling or the Beginning of a Rally?

🕔17:02, 7.mei 2019

Strategy Espresso Markets have rallied but we haven’t seen investors go back into equities. Indeed, European-domiciled ETF flows show that fixed income was still the favoured asset class in April with $4.5 billion of inflows versus $820 million out of equity. Year to

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Takeaways from first-quarter earnings

Takeaways from first-quarter earnings

🕔13:04, 7.mei 2019

Weekly Commentary U.S. earnings growth has slowed markedly from 2018, but a surprisingly resilient first quarter supports our still-positive view on U.S. equities. The Federal Reserve maintained its patient policy stance last week, and U.S. jobs gains and eurozone growth

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Asset Allocation Consensus September

Twitter

The integration of #ESG criteria often has a greater impact for emerging countries. Find out why in an interview with our expert #Karine_Jesiolowski (via @allnews_ch).

Low interest rates drive housing market -> https://t.co/XjhuRim2P7 #Interest #mortgages via @ABNAMROeconomen

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