Guide to the Markets Q1 2020
Guide to the Markets MARKET INSIGHTS Europe 1Q 2020 As of 31 December 2019
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Hidden Costs in FX Management
How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
UK set for snap election, what does this mean for sterling?
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
Market Flash: The Geopolitical Climate Recovers A Little
Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October
Forecasting Combination: An Application For Exchange Rates
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
USD: environment continues to support the dollar
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
Cycling into Emerging Market Sovereigns
Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,
Global Equity Ratings
Preferred Sectors: Health Care, Technology and Consumer
Buy-to-let verdringt starter van de koopwoningmarkt
Buy-to-let is, in de omvang waarin het zich de afgelopen jaren in Nederland heeft voorgedaan, een nieuw verschijnsel. Dat particuliere beleggers op grote schaal koopwoningen kopen om die woningen vervolgens te verhuren, laat zien dat de verhoudingen op de woningmarkt
International Stock Market Co-Movements and Politics-Related Risks
Cross asset Investment Strategy We investigate the determinants of international stock market co-movements, shedding light on the relevance of politics-related factors. We propose a new characterization for the link connecting politics and financial markets, disentangling two different components: political risk
Mid-Year Investment Outlook
I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
Our Monthly Market Analysis And Positioning
The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.
Falling off a wall of worry?
In Credit June Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of
No shortcuts
Weekly Digest Hiring managers looking to bring someone into their business or team would naturally include an interview stage for promising candidates, which may consist of several rounds of face to face questioning and assessment. Why should the process of
Review of markets over May 2019
For much of this year, equity markets have enjoyed a healthy climb, assisted by a dovish tilt from central banks, as well as the possibility of a trade deal between the US and China. As we entered May, the S&P
Genuine uncertainties according to the latest indicators
Trade war uncertainties continued while the latest advanced indicators delivered increasingly contradictory signals. Conference Board indicators on consumer confidence rebounded in May amid very buoyant labour market conditions. Note, however, that the survey was up to May 16 and therefore
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint
The headline growth numbers in our latest forecasts have not changed significantly since our last update in February. However, these have been boosted by a good start to the year with Q1 GDP beating expectations in the US, eurozone, UK,
Monthly update on Chinese markets
The trade conflict between China and US is back in focus. On 10th May, US took tariffs rates on USD250 billion of Chinese exports to 25% from 10%. Retaliation swiftly followed. China raised tariffs on USD60 billion of US goods
Should you move your portfolio into cash?
For the past several years most investors have faced a simple but abiding problem: asset markets have been climbing for close to a decade and now nothing looks cheap. However, in 2018 things began to change. During the year, as
European Elections outcome: a more fragmented Parliament with a still pro-European majority
Market Commentary Eurosceptics gained considerably in the European elections and the informal pro-European coalition of Conservatives and Socialists lost its majority. However, concerns about a landslide victory for the Eurosceptics did not materialize. A pro-European majority can still be engineered
Countdown to Zero—The Final Chapters
The Question Remains: Zero Real or Zero Nominal Yields? In our last interest-rate focused paper (Fall 2018), we hypothesized that G3 rates were temporarily boosted by fears of an acceleration in growth and an associated normalization of central bank monetary
Trading on trade wars
Weekly Bond Bulletin Trade rhetoric is dominating news flow, weighing on risk assets. What could be the implications for US growth and inflation, and how is the outlook reflected in valuations?
Multi-asset markets outlook
In the absence of big news, markets ground higher in April. This was the fourth consecutive month of higher stocks, with nearly 20% returns over that time, and a new ‘all time high’ for the MSCI World (in euros). Not
Lessons on low market volatility
Weekly Commentary Last week’s selloff is a reminder of the potential for late-cycle bouts of volatility. We remain risk-on, yet advocate maintaining portfolio ballast. The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese imports, dialing up pressure on China
Uitgelicht
"We more than ever need a targeted investment agenda that stimulates ‘real’ economic growth," @hanswstegeman argues, "instead of the current financial agenda, which above all sustains elevated asset prices."
Discover our Q1 2020 Economic Outlook on our website now.
Global 5G deployment could trigger the emergence of a whole range of new services, say UBP’s experts. Read this piece to find out why and how.
