The rise of the narrative concept and how it can help financial market understanding. A narrative is a popular story that arises from the public consciousness of market events. The most viral and intense of these may dominate public attention.
– Global equities were stronger in the final quarter of 2021 as investors focused on economic resilience and corporate earnings. – In bond markets, government bonds outperformed corporate bonds. Markets began to price a faster pace of interest rate rises
Volatility returned to markets as Omicron, a new Covid-19 variant, spooked investors. With 50 alterations, including 33 on the spike protein, markets were left scrambling for clues regarding its contagiousness, its lethality and the efficacy of vaccines and treatments. Several
Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …
Nu het wanbetalingspercentage aan beide kanten van de Atlantische Oceaan uitzonderlijk laag is, zouden beleggers terecht kunnen denken dat de markt voor distressed kredieten zeer gematigd is. Maar er zijn strategieën die zelfs in de huidige omgeving kansen kunnen vinden
Macro managers' returns are positive year-to-date but are still lagging their benchmarks. Their alpha was hit twice by the end of March and June. Managers adequately positioned early this year on rising yields and tapering through bond shorts and steepeners.
Foreword We have been running our internship program since 2014, hosting over 50 college students and MBAs for paid internships at our firm. The centerpiece of our internship is a daily seminar-style class taught by the partners at the firm.
Having hit a record high in late April, global equities peaked again in May after a choppy spell. Inflation appears to worry investors less now than it did at the start of the year. The latest indicators are beginning to
Monthly Market Monitor – February 2021
“Turning to the tasks of our time” Joe Biden, 46th President of the United States Markets at a glance President Biden kicked off his new term with a flurry of executive orders and directives (30) in his first three days
While the U.S. elections grind toward the finish line, risk markets—after a bumpy ride—are hovering close to all‑time highs. In light of surprisingly close elections that will likely lead to a split Congress, legislative gridlock, and inadequate fiscal support, this
In our 2021 Investment Outlook, we seek to help investors navigate the next phases of the pandemic, the legacy of the lockdowns, and the ensuing economic recovery. We also consider how solutions to the climate crisis can be found at
Market Flash Markets continued to focus on waning epidemic and political risk. Astra Zeneca unveiled a Covid vaccine that looks promising and simple to use. Governments are gearing up to start vaccination campaigns in the next few weeks. In the
From Capital Group’s fixed income team The global economy has stabilised sooner than had been anticipated. Unprecedented fiscal and monetary policy responses have helped, though pre-COVID economic levels may still not be recovered for another one to three years. The
#42 In October, there is no lack of webinars. This week our event calendar includes 11 webinars! For example, on Tuesday 20 October, KraneShares hosts a Virtual Conference called “The Next Chapter for China” and on Thursday 22 October, T.
Markets | October 2020 While every US presidential election is contentious, this year’s race seems especially divisive. Partisanship is extreme, and the difference between Donald Trump and Joe Biden in approach, personality and behaviour is stark. The charged rhetoric may
In the final quarter of this year, investors are likely to learn the answers to three pivotal questions for markets. First, we are likely to hear the results of vaccine trials. Second, we will learn the results of the US
Europe | | 4Q 2020 As of 30 September 2020
Markets at a glance In the course of the week, the markets remained very uncertain and highly influenced by the evolution of the contagion curve at the global level. On the US curve, the 2-year rate was confirmed …
Market Review It’s been a very strong quarter for equities and credit as central banks and governments provided enormous amounts of stimulus and economies started to reopen. Despite the strong rebound in risk …
Global Matters Weekly The summer solstice, or ‘longest day of the year’, took place in the northern hemisphere just over two weeks ago, putting those of us that live here on a path of gradually shortening …
Stocks had a poor start to last week, as concerns over the worsening of the pandemic in several states as well as a new outbreak in Beijing seemed to continue weighing on sentiment. The market then rebounded late Monday following
Global Matters Weekly Financial losses come in many shapes and forms and investors rightly spend a considerable amount of time worrying about them but managing loss aversion poorly can make the longterm outcome even worse. It is important to pick
White Paper Rising Stars in a New (Fed) World Recent unprecedented action by central banks, notably the Federal Reserve on April 9th, has helped markets recover meaningfully. This has caused many investors to wonder, “What do we do next?” or,
April In this blogpost, we will update you on our monthly best-reads and longest-reads. If you follow our weekly blogposts, you know the best read research articles on a weekly basis. In this monthly overview, we provide you with a
The EURUSD continued its sideways movement in April, although the range narrowed significantly. The outlook for both economic areas remains bleak and highly uncertain, both of which point to a sustained sideways trend. In this environment, long-term investments in either
Length of the equity slump likely to be at the shorter end of previous drawdowns The uniqueness of different bear market triggers leaves little convincing evidence of recurring patterns to aid market timing. We see limited merit in attempting to
Uncommon truths Have credit spreads widened enough? We think the answer depends upon what happens to the economy and we use US credit markets to give historical context. This leaves us more concerned about high-yield than investment-grade but we believe
Bond markets took a roller coaster ride over the last month. The extreme volatility reflected illiquid conditions as dealers worked from home; regulatory pressure weighing on dealer balance sheets; de-risking in risk-parity funds; and profit taking in fixed income to
COVID-19 and the financial markets Spotlight: Fixed Income Various central bank measures and rescue packages have lifted the sentiment on the global capital market in the last days. While the curve of new infections and fatalities is flattening in many
Market conditions improved in the wake of the aggressive Federal Reserve announcements to tame risks in the financial system (link). The MSCI World bottomed on March 23rd and rose more than 20% since then, leaving the broad equity market benchmark
With large swathes of the world’s population on lockdown and economic activity on hold, we assess the likely damage to dividend payments over the coming months. We outline how Fidelity’s equity income portfolios are navigating this environment and why selectively
Time to own durable yield for the Zero Interest Rate world ahead Going forward, fundamentals are likely to be defined by a sharp global recession followed by a stubbornly low growth world coupled with the odd bedfellows of high debt
Talking Points on China's Experience with COVID-19: What IS and IS NOT applicable to the US What IS NOT applicable to the United States What IS NOT applicable to the United States COVID-19 (Coronavirus) began in Wuhan, which is the capital
Two months down. Macro / government bonds Core government bonds remain the favoured asset class in these times of turmoil. Indeed, last week the benchmark 10-year US treasury reached a new all time yield low of 1.14%. The ICE BofA
Guide to the Markets MARKET INSIGHTS Europe 1Q 2020 As of 31 December 2019
How much are investors spending on day-to-day FX management and how much could they save? The answer: much more than they may realise. The subject, typically viewed as an administrative backoffice function, often receives limited attention from pension fund trustees
The UK’s deadline for leaving the European Union has once again been delayed and another general election is on the way in December, but what does this mean for the currency markets? Despite Boris Johnson’s best efforts to force his
Risk assets were lifted this week by the partial US-China agreement and hopes of a solution to avoid a no-deal Brexit. The US-China agreement stipulated that Washington would not raise tariffs on $250bnworth of Chinese imports by 25-30% on October
This paper tries to forecast exchange rates by comparing forecasting methods that take into account cointegration and methods that do not. The first finding is that taking into account cointegration provides better forecasting results. Furthermore, the factor model with cointegration
The coming weeks will decide how Brexit will proceed. There are probably now only two alternatives remaining: another postponement of the withdrawal date or withdrawal without an agreement. We expect the second. Once this outcome becomes obvious, the dollar could
Bond yields have nose-dived once more this summer in light of renewed geopolitical tensions and a decelerating global economy. GAM Investments’ Bogdan Manescu believes that fixed income investors can still find value and attractive yields in emerging market (EM) sovereign,
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Buy-to-let is, in de omvang waarin het zich de afgelopen jaren in Nederland heeft voorgedaan, een nieuw verschijnsel. Dat particuliere beleggers op grote schaal koopwoningen kopen om die woningen vervolgens te verhuren, laat zien dat de verhoudingen op de woningmarkt
Cross asset Investment Strategy We investigate the determinants of international stock market co-movements, shedding light on the relevance of politics-related factors. We propose a new characterization for the link connecting politics and financial markets, disentangling two different components: political risk
I hope you enjoy reading our mid-year Investment Outlook. In the pages that follow we set out to share our current thinking and the investment conclusions that follow. Perhaps surprisingly, given that there is much uncertainty, we have some clear
The month of May was tough rather than merry. After many stock exchanges touched new record highs, the impulsive U.S. trade policy sent both equities and bond yields on a downward slide. The summer could be uncomfortably hot.
In Credit June Yields have plunged in the US, Europe and the UK. Hopes of a successful resolution to the trade dispute between the US and China have been replaced by increasing intransigence from both sides and the threat of
