April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout is improving the prospect of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain heavily supported …
Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …
Stocks extended gains in March as countries pushed ahead with their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, the US passed a new stimulus package and major central banks indicated they are likely to keep interest rates low even as the economy rebounds. The
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …
At the end of last year, I reflected that you “gotta have faith in low discount rates” for risk assets, such as equities, to continue to perform well in 2021. While on the one hand the economic and earnings recovery from Covid-19 was, and continues to be, more potent than expected, allowing companies to grow-in to elevated multiples; on the other hand, an increase in ultra-cheap capital …
A year after the Covid-19 crisis struck, the US Congress approved the latest stimulus package, a massive $1.9 trillion plan representing 9% of GDP. It came only 3 months after a $900bn package was adopted.
Since our February update, the Return to Normal Index has ticked up only slightly (Figure 1). This is not surprising: large segments of the population are still not eligible to get a vaccination. But the good news is that Covid cases, hospitalisations and positivity rates continue to fall precipitously, and vaccine distribution is accelerating. Among the index subcomponents …
After years of muted inflation, investors are becoming concerned as a massive amount of pent-up demand is expected to be unleashed as the economy reemerges in the coming months, bringing higher price pressures. The excess savings that consumers have accumulated over the past year, plus an additional near USD 1.9 trillion fiscal package on the way, could also lead to demand …
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
Het economisch herstel dat in de loop van 2021 aan kracht zal winnen, zou niet leiden tot een snel oplopende inflatie.
US real yields surged towards the end of February, spurring unpleasant memories of the ‘taper tantrum’ in 2013 when comments by Ben Bernanke, then Chair of the Federal Reserve, set off a 100bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields over several months. Now, as then, market expectations …
How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
The economic rebound slowed in the fourth quarter, after a strong rebound in the third quarter and a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from fiscal and monetary institutions. The positive vaccine …
Monthly Market Monitor – February 2021
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
Multi Asset Monthly – Global Strategy Economic outlook A renewed surge in detected virus cases has led several, mainly European, governments to take additional measures to restrict mobility and to impose soft lockdowns. This has impacted the path of the
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
High Hopes for a Cyclical Recovery (Video) Asset Allocation Monthly In this Asset Allocation monthly video, we discuss the implications of the US elections and the news on potentially reliable Covid vaccines on our market views and our asset allocation
Asset Allocation Monthly Three key issues have dominated the macroeconomic outlook in recent weeks: The second wave of the virus, the possibility of a positive announcement on the vaccine front, and the outcome of the US elections. Markets have been
The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a portfolio. Given
Benchmark Indices Key Points: The STOXX® Global 1800 Index fell for a second consecutive month in October, led by losses in European shares, as the number of COVID-19 contagions rebounded strongly. The global index retreated 3.2% in dollar terms and
Global markets and multi-asset portfolios The coronavirus pandemic has dominated news flow throughout 2020. Looking forward, even after the first acute phase of the pandemic has passed, its imprint on our economy and indeed on the very fabric of our
September 2020 Bitcoin Volatility Report – Sept. kicked off with bitcoin’s annualized volatility touching a 5-week low of 38.8%, only to then rally above 50% on Sept. 3, bounce between 50% and 56%, and snap a 5-month downtrend by concluding
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy Monthly #10 October 2020 Investors have been dealing with rising volatility in equities and initial signs of a fall in the extreme market complacency over the last few months. This is leading to some key divergences
September DAX Indices Key points The DAX family is led by Germany’s blue-chip DAX®. The MDAX® and SDAX®, respectively, gauge the performance of the country’s mid- and small-caps. The TecDAX® tracks German technology companies. Finally, the HDAX® Index groups all
Monthly Op-ed The recent dataflow is consistent with our base case: the world’s economy is not experiencing a “V-shape” recovery, but rather is following a “swoosh” trajectory in which after an initial spectacular rebound, growth slows. Focus is again on
Multi-asset | September 2020 Most asset market returns can be distilled down to two basic elements: movements in cash flows and discount rates. In the past month or so, for risky assets such as equities, each has moved in a
As the global economy continued to inch back towards normality and equity markets recovered ground, most of our reported risk indicators declined in August. The realized volatility of the S&P 500, S&P Composite 1500, S&P Developed Ex-U.S. BMI and S&P
Eaton Vance Monthly Market Monitor presents a concise review of economic and asset class data through clear and impactful charts. Providing timely information across a broad array of markets and investment topics, this guide serves as a helpful resource in
Key points Europe has been enjoying a rare moment of outperformance recently. Still, given the abundance of “cliffs” ahead, Europe would do well with a nice policy “parachute”. For now though, the US is still doing more on the stimulus
In June, investors were confronted with the conflicting impact of an improved outlook and a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus cases around the world. Optimism prevailed in the end; the …
Multi-asset | July 2020 We all know – or rather, have heard of – Warren Buffet. One of his more famous mantras is: to get rich you need to be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are
For the quarter ended June 30, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 2.90%. Year to date, the index has returned 6.14%. U.S. Treasuries returned 0.48% during the quarter as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury declined
Key points Stocks wrapped their best calendar quarter since 2009 during June as many economies continued their way out of lockdowns imposed to control the expansion of COVID-19. The STOXX® Global 1800 Index rose 2.7% in dollar terms during the
Market Update Despite economic data having weakened substantially the equity rally in the US has continued unabated, with markets up over 30% from their lowest point in late March. Meanwhile, policymakers have …
Key points A genuine gap is emerging between the US and Europe on the pandemic front So far differences in policy initiatives on either side of the Atlantic have made up for this short-coming Interdependency of virus control, policy and
This week initially saw a reversal of fortunes, with risk markets rallying after last week. Equities were stronger and credit spreads a little tighter, though this mini rally tapered off …
The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a portfolio. Given
For the month ended May 31, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 0.47%. Year to date, the index has returned 5.47%. U.S. Treasuries returned -0.25% during the month as the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose
After a strong rally from the March lows, equity markets have been range-bound. Investors are weighing hopes of a recovery against fears of a “second wave” of virus cases, high valuations, and US-China trade tensions. In this letter, we offer
Multi Asset Monthly With economies gradually reopening, the worst of the drop in growth seems to be behind us, even if the rebound in consumption is lagging behind the bounce in industrial production. The shape of the recovery still remains
The rebound in equity markets extended into May. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dominate markets, with an increasing focus on how countries would begin to relax their lockdown measures and how this would affect the economy. Volatility
