The Bitcoin Monthly: New Year, New Market Dynamics
In the fourth quarter, bitcoin found strong support at its investor cost basis, then broke out above its total market cost basis and its 200-day moving average …
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Bemoedigende tekenen van herstel in Europa
De financiële markten zijn het nieuwe jaar goed begonnen. Naast de daling van de rente, doordat de inflatie heeft gepiekt en de centrale banken de voet daardoor wat van het rempedaal kunnen halen, zijn ook de bemoedigende tekenen van herstel
Global House View – December 2022
A deeper earnings downgrade is expected as valuations are yet to fully price in a recession Credit spreads, particularly in higher-grade assets, remain relatively …
China reopens; developed economies slow down
Central banks have started to moderate the pace of tightening but we are not close to a pivot. Inflation remains too high and US labour market data continue to point towards a tight market. Central banks will keep rates at
Schroders Equity Lens – January 2023
Last year saw a reversal of many of the past decade’s trends: – the US (-19%) was one of the worst performing markets, the UK was one of the best (+7% in GBP, -5% in USD) (slides 10-11) – growth
Barometer: Na de storm
Aandelen en obligaties uit opkomende markten bieden de beste vooruitzichten voor beleggers na een zwaar jaar voor de financiële markten. Nieuw jaar, zelfde risico's? De wereldeconomie blijft voor uitdagingen staan – niet in het minst door de zwakke groei en
Building Asymmetry in Portfolios
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
The end of an era
Monthly Investment Outlook: With the September swoon in risk assets, markets have simply moved to unprice the optimism built up over the summer about the prospects of a pause in Fed tightening …
Barometer: Donkere wolken aan de hemel
De vooruitzichten voor risicovollere activaklassen zien er minder goed uit omdat renteverhogingen de economische groei wereldwijd blijven afremmen. De vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie worden slechter. Naarmate de centrale banken de rente verhogen om de inflatie te bestrijden, zal niet alleen
The long road to normalization
Multi Asset Monthly: Central banks’ top priority remains the fight against inflation; nevertheless, their communication seems more balanced, indicating that expectations are also being considered. Inflation will moderate in 2023 but we are not close to a pivot. Central banks
Beginning The Next Phase Of The 2022 Bear Market
Following the summer rally, risk assets once again overprice soft-landing prospects requiring a cautious stance on the part of investors going into year-end. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that economic risks are increasingly skewed towards recession especially in Europe
Barometer: Aandelen blijven onaantrekkelijk, maar obligaties verdienen meer aandacht
Aangezien de donkere wolken boven de economie nog niet zijn verdwenen, zullen aandelen wellicht verder dalen. Obligaties beginnen er echter aantrekkelijk uit te zien.
The bear-market rally is over
The Jackson Hole conference made it clear that fighting inflation, even if it leads to economic hardship, is priority number one for monetary policymakers. Except for the Bank of Japan, central banks will stick to their aggressive tightening path, …
Barometer: Zomerrally is al een verre herinnering
Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk
All Eyes On The Merge
The Bitcoin Monthly With futures in backwardation and options open interest at an all-time high, ether is the most hedged asset in the crypto market as it transitions to …
Rising Risk of Recession
May’s reprieve proved short-lived as recession joined inflation fears pushing equity/bond prices lower in June. Concerns have risen as the increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric at its June meeting suggests a willingness to trade rising …
Four shifts
This downturn is global, not US-centric. The current gap between optimistic equity analysts and cautious economists is particularly pronounced. We believe earnings estimates are at risk as the slowdown we anticipate …
Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet
Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …
Building Asymmetry in Portfolios
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg
Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.
Rates roller coaster
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than
Slowflation in the offing
While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The
Maintaining a cautious tilt
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
Starting to Price an Economic Slowdown
May provided a reprieve for investors as a late-month rally in both equities and bonds recouped much of the losses seen early in the month. Economic surprises in the US began to miss consensus expectations in May with a sharp
Tech sell-off and bond temptation
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy – June 2022: The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors
Barometer: Voorzichtigheid is de moeder van de porseleinkast
De stijgende reële rentevoeten en de bezorgdheid over de vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie wegen op onze vooruitzichten voor aandelen, wat ons ertoe aanzet onze allocatie naar onderwogen te verlagen Activatoewijzing: een zenuwoorlog Inflatie Oorlog COVID Deze eisen elk hun tol
Given stagflationary concerns, our outlook remains cautious
Multi-Asset Investments Monthly views Given “stagflationary” concerns, our outlook remains cautious, with a preference for quality in developed markets. Stagflation describes a combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation.
Looming divergences and the great asset repricing
Diverging economic outlooks in Europe, US and China, along with persisting geopolitical risks, underscore the need to explore relative value opportunities across asset classes. On duration, we think investors should be flexible but no longer as short as they were
Growing Risks on the Horizon
April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …
Where to Hide?
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on
Barometer: Een wreed april kan het dieptepunt markeren
Aandelen hadden in april te lijden onder een flinke selloff, maar er zijn aanwijzingen dat beleggers te bearish zijn. Het beleggingsklimaat lijkt moeilijker te worden. De wereldwijde economische groei vertraagt, de inflatie neemt toe, er lijkt geen oplossing in zicht
Fixed Income Monthly – April 2022
The quarter that just ended was dramatic in many respects. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a humanitarian crisis that will have long-lasting consequences, and one that has significantly reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The events that have unfolded also sent
The value winter is thawing
Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level
A Time for Defensiveness
Credit markets came under pressure again in March, with most fixed income asset classes generating negative total returns, although excess returns were mostly positive. Treasury yields traded sharply higher, and the yield curve flattened, with two- and 10-year Treasury yields
A tale of two shocks
The economy is facing two shocks. An inflation shock has led to a sharp hawkish shift by central banks. The Fed is now expected to raise policy rates to 2.5% this year. The BoJ is the outlier in the developed
Balancing Act
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war involving a global military superpower has created significant uncertainty for investors. The condemnation from the rest of the world has been united, backed up with punitive sanctions that most certainly will
Global Fixed Income Update March 2022
Contents: Macroeconomic outlook pre-Russia/Ukraine conflict Impact of Russia/Ukraine Valuations Investment conclusions Appendix
Focusing on Dynamic Risk Management
Global stock and bond markets slumped in February as the Russian invasion of Ukraine rattled markets, creating the prospect of a global commodity shock as Western nations moved to sanction Russia, among the world’s largest …
Barometer: Wanneer conflicten uitbreken, leidt kalme reflectie tot uitwijkacties
De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft tot ernstig tumult op de markten geleid. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. Net wanneer de Covid-19-crisis begint af te nemen, breekt er een conflict in Oekraïne uit. De vraag die
Wereldeconomie kan tegen een stootje, zolang energieleveranties op peil blijven
Visie op asset allocatie – Maart 2022: Vorige maand meldden we dat er nog hoop was voor aandelenbeleggers voor 2022. Dat denken we nog steeds, al moeten beleggers nog wel geduld hebben. De reden is uiteraard de Russische inval in
Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
Barometer: When conflicts erupt, calm reflection trumps evasive action
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused severe market ructions. But the economic fallout from the crisis appears manageable. Just as the Covid crisis has begun to fade, a conflict in Ukraine is erupting. The question investors now face is the
Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
European equity market: the great value rotation and the dividend appeal
January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors
Global equities tumbled over January
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
Barometer: Kopen tijdens een terugval
De vooruitzichten voor aandelen zijn bemoedigend in de nasleep van een sterke sell-off, aangezien de groei van de wereldeconomie zal versnellen onder leiding van China.
Global equities tumbled over January
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
Barometer: Kopen tijdens een terugval
De vooruitzichten voor aandelen zijn bemoedigend in de nasleep van een sterke sell-off, aangezien de groei van de wereldeconomie zal versnellen onder leiding van China.
Markets move to price a new policy and growth environment
As often occurs in market corrections, the current selloff has inspired much speculation, but there remains just one incontrovertible fact: After delivering 27% returns in 2021, the S&P 500 is down 7% year to date in 2022. Market participants offer
Entering a new investment regime
Stubbornly high inflation numbers have sparked nervousness among central banks, which are rapidly reverting to hawkish policies. The Fed is now expected to raise rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. The ECB …
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