Following the summer rally, risk assets once again overprice soft-landing prospects requiring a cautious stance on the part of investors going into year-end. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that economic risks are increasingly skewed towards recession especially in Europe
The Jackson Hole conference made it clear that fighting inflation, even if it leads to economic hardship, is priority number one for monetary policymakers. Except for the Bank of Japan, central banks will stick to their aggressive tightening path, …
Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk
The Bitcoin Monthly With futures in backwardation and options open interest at an all-time high, ether is the most hedged asset in the crypto market as it transitions to …
May’s reprieve proved short-lived as recession joined inflation fears pushing equity/bond prices lower in June. Concerns have risen as the increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric at its June meeting suggests a willingness to trade rising …
This downturn is global, not US-centric. The current gap between optimistic equity analysts and cautious economists is particularly pronounced. We believe earnings estimates are at risk as the slowdown we anticipate …
Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.
The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than
While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The
Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while
May provided a reprieve for investors as a late-month rally in both equities and bonds recouped much of the losses seen early in the month. Economic surprises in the US began to miss consensus expectations in May with a sharp
CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy – June 2022: The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors
De stijgende reële rentevoeten en de bezorgdheid over de vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie wegen op onze vooruitzichten voor aandelen, wat ons ertoe aanzet onze allocatie naar onderwogen te verlagen Activatoewijzing: een zenuwoorlog Inflatie Oorlog COVID Deze eisen elk hun tol
Multi-Asset Investments Monthly views Given “stagflationary” concerns, our outlook remains cautious, with a preference for quality in developed markets. Stagflation describes a combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation.
Diverging economic outlooks in Europe, US and China, along with persisting geopolitical risks, underscore the need to explore relative value opportunities across asset classes. On duration, we think investors should be flexible but no longer as short as they were
April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on
Aandelen hadden in april te lijden onder een flinke selloff, maar er zijn aanwijzingen dat beleggers te bearish zijn. Het beleggingsklimaat lijkt moeilijker te worden. De wereldwijde economische groei vertraagt, de inflatie neemt toe, er lijkt geen oplossing in zicht
The quarter that just ended was dramatic in many respects. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a humanitarian crisis that will have long-lasting consequences, and one that has significantly reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The events that have unfolded also sent
Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level
Credit markets came under pressure again in March, with most fixed income asset classes generating negative total returns, although excess returns were mostly positive. Treasury yields traded sharply higher, and the yield curve flattened, with two- and 10-year Treasury yields
The economy is facing two shocks. An inflation shock has led to a sharp hawkish shift by central banks. The Fed is now expected to raise policy rates to 2.5% this year. The BoJ is the outlier in the developed
The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war involving a global military superpower has created significant uncertainty for investors. The condemnation from the rest of the world has been united, backed up with punitive sanctions that most certainly will
Contents: Macroeconomic outlook pre-Russia/Ukraine conflict Impact of Russia/Ukraine Valuations Investment conclusions Appendix
Global stock and bond markets slumped in February as the Russian invasion of Ukraine rattled markets, creating the prospect of a global commodity shock as Western nations moved to sanction Russia, among the world’s largest …
De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft tot ernstig tumult op de markten geleid. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. Net wanneer de Covid-19-crisis begint af te nemen, breekt er een conflict in Oekraïne uit. De vraag die
Visie op asset allocatie – Maart 2022: Vorige maand meldden we dat er nog hoop was voor aandelenbeleggers voor 2022. Dat denken we nog steeds, al moeten beleggers nog wel geduld hebben. De reden is uiteraard de Russische inval in
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused severe market ructions. But the economic fallout from the crisis appears manageable. Just as the Covid crisis has begun to fade, a conflict in Ukraine is erupting. The question investors now face is the
In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to
January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
De vooruitzichten voor aandelen zijn bemoedigend in de nasleep van een sterke sell-off, aangezien de groei van de wereldeconomie zal versnellen onder leiding van China.
Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,
De vooruitzichten voor aandelen zijn bemoedigend in de nasleep van een sterke sell-off, aangezien de groei van de wereldeconomie zal versnellen onder leiding van China.
As often occurs in market corrections, the current selloff has inspired much speculation, but there remains just one incontrovertible fact: After delivering 27% returns in 2021, the S&P 500 is down 7% year to date in 2022. Market participants offer
Stubbornly high inflation numbers have sparked nervousness among central banks, which are rapidly reverting to hawkish policies. The Fed is now expected to raise rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. The ECB …
De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …
Based on our view that the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk. However, we believe with risk assets seemingly priced for compelling opportunities, they are also more vulnerable to exogenous …
Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht
Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …
Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy
Hoewel obligaties het moeilijk zullen hebben bij een stijging van de rente, zouden aandelen een behoorlijk eencijferig rendement moeten genereren, omdat sterke bedrijfswinsten een daling van de winstveelvouden van aandelen compenseren.
Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary
Hoewel de inflatiedruk de obligatierente zal doen stijgen, zou een gezonde stijging van de bedrijfswinsten aandelen moeten ondersteunen. De wereldwijde financiële markten hebben het moeilijk. De monetaire voorwaarden worden strenger terwijl knelpunten in de toeleveringsketen hun tol beginnen te eisen
Investment Monthly – November 2021: We maintain our preference for stocks over bonds as equity premiums remain significantly higher than those for fixed income assets, while on a historical basis, stocks outperform bonds while labour markets improve. A scenario of
After 18 months of exceptionally strong equity markets, most measures of valuations look high against their own absolute histories. The measure most favoured among long-time equity bears over the past decade or so has been the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings
