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Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

Barometer: Omikrongolf zal aandelenkoersen niet doen dalen

🕔09:50, 17.Jan 2022

De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …

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Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

Not Too Hot, Not Too Cold

🕔14:25, 20.Dec 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …

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Opportunity Amid Transformation

Opportunity Amid Transformation

🕔10:13, 20.Dec 2021

Based on our view that the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk. However, we believe with risk assets seemingly priced for compelling opportunities, they are also more vulnerable to exogenous …

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Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

Barometer: Geen reden voor paniek over de pandemie

🕔08:55, 16.Dec 2021

Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht

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Monthly market and signal update – December 2021

Monthly market and signal update – December 2021

🕔16:45, 14.Dec 2021

Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …

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Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

Market stumbles over Omicron uncertainty

🕔12:47, 14.Dec 2021

Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy

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Barometer: Het beleggingslandschap in 2022

Barometer: Het beleggingslandschap in 2022

🕔09:18, 9.Dec 2021

Hoewel obligaties het moeilijk zullen hebben bij een stijging van de rente, zouden aandelen een behoorlijk eencijferig rendement moeten genereren, omdat sterke bedrijfswinsten een daling van de winstveelvouden van aandelen compenseren.

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Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

Earnings momentum and a change in central bank tone

🕔12:26, 23.Nov 2021

Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary

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Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

Barometer: Inflatie houdt meer risico in voor obligaties dan voor aandelen

🕔16:11, 10.Nov 2021

Hoewel de inflatiedruk de obligatierente zal doen stijgen, zou een gezonde stijging van de bedrijfswinsten aandelen moeten ondersteunen. De wereldwijde financiële markten hebben het moeilijk. De monetaire voorwaarden worden strenger terwijl knelpunten in de toeleveringsketen hun tol beginnen te eisen

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Cyclical anxieties and whipsaw markets

Cyclical anxieties and whipsaw markets

🕔00:19, 10.Nov 2021

Investment Monthly – November 2021: We maintain our preference for stocks over bonds as equity premiums remain significantly higher than those for fixed income assets, while on a historical basis, stocks outperform bonds while labour markets improve. A scenario of

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Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

Asset allocation update: warning lights are flashing

🕔13:43, 9.Nov 2021

After 18 months of exceptionally strong equity markets, most measures of valuations look high against their own absolute histories. The measure most favoured among long-time equity bears over the past decade or so has been the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings

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Fixed Income Monthly – October 2021

Fixed Income Monthly – October 2021

🕔08:30, 3.Nov 2021

Fixed income funds invest in bonds whose price is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price

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De strijd tegen Delta

De strijd tegen Delta

🕔11:00, 28.Oct 2021

Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van

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Removing the crutches

Removing the crutches

🕔10:23, 14.Oct 2021

After a good start, September saw equity markets take a hit, particularly in emerging Asia. Alongside ongoing investor concerns about the pandemic and weakening global growth momentum, markets were rocked by news of debt payment problems at Chinese property developer

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Barometer: Geen goede tijd om te kopen?

Barometer: Geen goede tijd om te kopen?

🕔15:31, 11.Oct 2021

Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de

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Rock and a Hard Place

Rock and a Hard Place

🕔14:29, 21.Sep 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe  Coming out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed could begin to wind down its monthly bond buying by year-end, if the economy and coronavirus

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A mature bull market is not something to fear

A mature bull market is not something to fear

🕔10:16, 14.Sep 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …

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STOXX Monthly Index News – August

STOXX Monthly Index News – August

🕔11:06, 7.Sep 2021

Stocks rose for a seventh straight month during August amid ongoing optimism that the global economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 slump and as the US Federal Reserve indicated it won’t rush to …

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The Delta dilemma

The Delta dilemma

🕔11:58, 6.Sep 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly: During August, investor edginess increased. Financial markets partly reflected this with a decline in equities and commodities, a fall in long-term bond yields, and a rise in the US dollar. Expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary

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Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

Preparing for the start of a ‘mini-cycle’

🕔08:23, 1.Sep 2021

– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis

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Monthly Investment Outlook August 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook August 2021

🕔16:53, 26.Aug 2021

Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy

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Getting granular

Getting granular

🕔13:03, 23.Aug 2021

Portfolio perspectives – August 2021: The volatility we have seen just in the two months since we published our midyear investment outlook reflects – in our view – the unusually wide range of divergent yet plausible economic outcomes that potentially

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Balancing Act

Balancing Act

🕔08:30, 19.Aug 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe At the same time that China has taken steps to stabilise its slowing economy with measures such as a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut and pledge to increase fiscal support, policymakers …

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Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

Set to transition to the next stage of the mini-cycle

🕔12:40, 17.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …

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Geen ontwijkende actie nodig

Geen ontwijkende actie nodig

🕔16:13, 16.Aug 2021

Zelfs als China zijn regelgeving aanscherpt en het aantal Covid-19-besmettingen onaangenaam hoog blijft, zullen de aandelen waarschijnlijk niet lijden als het economische herstel zich doorzet. Voor beleggers is er dit jaar geen zomerpauze. De wereldeconomie blijft erop vooruitgaan ondanks de

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Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

Continuing to pivot alongside the Federal Reserve

🕔09:37, 13.Aug 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –

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When consensus becomes a pain trade

When consensus becomes a pain trade

🕔15:52, 6.Aug 2021

The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this

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Fixed Income Monthly – July 2021

Fixed Income Monthly – July 2021

🕔15:35, 2.Aug 2021

Central banks remain in the driving seat for rates markets and the June Fed meeting was the most recent example of how sensitive markets are to even small changes in the outlook for monetary policy. June’s FOMC meeting saw a

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Pick your scary story

Pick your scary story

🕔14:31, 27.Jul 2021

These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in

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STOXX Monthly Index News – June 2021

STOXX Monthly Index News – June 2021

🕔13:04, 6.Jul 2021

The EURO STOXX 50® ESG Index was introduced in 2019 as a sustainable alternative to the flagship EURO STOXX 50® Index. The ESG index follows product- and norms-based exclusions and integrates companies’ ESG scores into the stock selection. The result

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Rustig vaarwater in juni

Rustig vaarwater in juni

🕔11:45, 6.Jul 2021

Dekkingsgraadscan pensioenfondsen: In deze dekkingsgraadscan vindt u meer informatie over de dekkingsgraad van een gemiddeld Nederlands pensioenfonds. We geven een overzicht van de ontwikkeling van de feitelijke en (12-maands) voortschrijdend gemiddelde dekkingsgraad in het afgelopen jaar. Daarnaast maken we op

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Fixed Income Monthly – June 2021

Fixed Income Monthly – June 2021

🕔12:42, 22.Jun 2021

The rapid roll-out of vaccinations across the US and the UK, with Europe catching up, pushed developed market PMIs once again to record highs in May. Business activity and new orders have accelerated across both manufacturing and services sectors, business

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The Next (Re-opening) Wave

The Next (Re-opening) Wave

🕔16:54, 15.Jun 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly – June 2021: Investor attention is turning to where economic growth will accelerate next as vaccine rollouts allow more and more economies to reopen. The current leaders, the US and UK, will soon pass the baton to

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Digest and rebalance

Digest and rebalance

🕔10:15, 7.Jun 2021

Multi Asset Monthly: Macro data are increasingly heralding the start of the economic normalization process in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. In the US more infrastructure spending has been announced. Inflation numbers and expectations have risen, but

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Asset allocation update: standing pat

Asset allocation update: standing pat

🕔09:00, 2.Jun 2021

In a game of cards “standing pat” is to retain one’s hand as dealt, without drawing other cards. Standing pat also captures how we have managed our asset allocation in recent months, making few changes to our overall preferences. We

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Crosscurrents

Crosscurrents

🕔09:14, 18.May 2021

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe  A renewed surge in coronavirus cases across several emerging markets (EM) countries—including India, Brazil, and Argentina—is weighing heavily on these economies as they struggle with insufficient medical infrastructure and access to vaccines. In

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Passing the Baton

Passing the Baton

🕔11:57, 17.May 2021

Asset Allocation Monthly: Equity and fixed-income markets have benefited over the last year not only from stepped-up central bank support, but also from a clear abandonment of ‘austerity’ as a response to economic shocks. Instead of regaining investors’ trust through

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Barometer: Het zit ‘m in de prijs

Barometer: Het zit ‘m in de prijs

🕔08:47, 13.May 2021

Terwijl de economische omstandigheden blijven verbeteren, zijn er tekenen dat de rally in de markt vooruitloopt op de fundamentals. Wij hebben onze positie in aandelen dan ook teruggebracht tot 'neutraal'. Na slechts vier maanden hebben de wereldwijde aandelenmarkten onze doelstellingen

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2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

2021 Recovery to continue and beat potential

🕔12:01, 6.May 2021

April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.

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Capital Markets View – April 2021

Capital Markets View – April 2021

🕔10:00, 3.May 2021

The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward

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As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

As the US recovery matures, returns will be driven by earnings

🕔10:18, 19.Apr 2021

Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to

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Ebb and Flow

Ebb and Flow

🕔16:44, 15.Apr 2021

The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …

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The vaccine rollout can boost the support driven recovery

The vaccine rollout can boost the support driven recovery

🕔08:37, 15.Apr 2021

The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout is improving the prospect of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain heavily supported …

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Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

Bubbles, tantrums and the revenge of value

🕔11:45, 14.Apr 2021

Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …

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STOXX Monthly Index News

STOXX Monthly Index News

🕔12:59, 9.Apr 2021

Stocks extended gains in March as countries pushed ahead with their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, the US passed a new stimulus package and major central banks indicated they are likely to keep interest rates low even as the economy rebounds. The

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The great rate debate

The great rate debate

🕔08:57, 2.Apr 2021

President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …

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On pause… but vaccine rollout brings play closer

On pause… but vaccine rollout brings play closer

🕔10:52, 19.Mar 2021

The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …

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Some like it hot!

Some like it hot!

🕔08:24, 18.Mar 2021

At the end of last year, I reflected that you “gotta have faith in low discount rates” for risk assets, such as equities, to continue to perform well in 2021. While on the one hand the economic and earnings recovery from Covid-19 was, and continues to be, more potent than expected, allowing companies to grow-in to elevated multiples; on the other hand, an increase in ultra-cheap capital …

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The CAC 40 has Finally been Vaccinated against COVID

The CAC 40 has Finally been Vaccinated against COVID

🕔16:03, 17.Mar 2021

A year after the Covid-19 crisis struck, the US Congress approved the latest stimulus package, a massive $1.9 trillion plan representing 9% of GDP. It came only 3 months after a $900bn package was adopted.

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Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’? – March Update

Covid-19 index: when might life return to ‘normal’? – March Update

🕔11:13, 16.Mar 2021

Since our February update, the Return to Normal Index has ticked up only slightly (Figure 1). This is not surprising: large segments of the population are still not eligible to get a vaccination. But the good news is that Covid cases, hospitalisations and positivity rates continue to fall precipitously, and vaccine distribution is accelerating. Among the index subcomponents …

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