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Monthly Outlook: Evaluating Global Liquidity Shifts: Predictions for the Investment Landscape of 2023

Monthly Outlook: Evaluating Global Liquidity Shifts: Predictions for the Investment Landscape of 2023

🕔09:58, 11.Aug 2023

In their latest report, “Monthly Investment Outlook,” UBP provides a comprehensive analysis of the current investment climate. The analysis observes that global equities and bonds were stable in April, as markets adjusted to the liquidity influx subsequent to the US

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Converging Expectations

Converging Expectations

🕔08:52, 21.Mar 2023

In February, concerns about inflation caused a partial reversal of gains in the stock and bond markets, leading to a convergence between risky and risk-off assets. Strong US jobs and retail sales data, along with higher-than-expected inflation reports, led to

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Barometer: lagere inflatie in het verschiet, maar ook lagere groei

Barometer: lagere inflatie in het verschiet, maar ook lagere groei

🕔08:02, 14.Mar 2023

Wij verwachten niet dat de inflatie nog lang zal aanhouden, maar we hebben niet bijzonder veel vertrouwen in de groeivooruitzichten van de ontwikkelde wereld. Daarom zijn we onderwogen in Amerikaanse aandelen en aandelen uit de eurozone.

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The Bitcoin Monthly: New Year, New Market Dynamics

The Bitcoin Monthly: New Year, New Market Dynamics

🕔16:48, 7.Feb 2023

In the fourth quarter, bitcoin found strong support at its investor cost basis, then broke out above its total market cost basis and its 200-day moving average …

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Bemoedigende tekenen van herstel in Europa

Bemoedigende tekenen van herstel in Europa

🕔14:45, 30.Jan 2023

De financiële markten zijn het nieuwe jaar goed begonnen. Naast de daling van de rente, doordat de inflatie heeft gepiekt en de centrale banken de voet daardoor wat van het rempedaal kunnen halen, zijn ook de bemoedigende tekenen van herstel

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Global House View – December 2022

Global House View – December 2022

🕔14:14, 23.Jan 2023

A deeper earnings downgrade is expected as valuations are yet to fully price in a recession Credit spreads, particularly in higher-grade assets, remain relatively …

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China reopens; developed economies slow down

China reopens; developed economies slow down

🕔16:12, 16.Jan 2023

Central banks have started to moderate the pace of tightening but we are not close to a pivot. Inflation remains too high and US labour market data continue to point towards a tight market. Central banks will keep rates at

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Schroders Equity Lens – January 2023

Schroders Equity Lens – January 2023

🕔16:17, 12.Jan 2023

Last year saw a reversal of many of the past decade’s trends: – the US (-19%) was one of the worst performing markets, the UK was one of the best (+7% in GBP, -5% in USD) (slides 10-11) – growth

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Barometer: Na de storm

Barometer: Na de storm

🕔10:02, 12.Jan 2023

Aandelen en obligaties uit opkomende markten bieden de beste vooruitzichten voor beleggers na een zwaar jaar voor de financiële markten. Nieuw jaar, zelfde risico's? De wereldeconomie blijft voor uitdagingen staan – niet in het minst door de zwakke groei en

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Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

🕔08:22, 29.Dec 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …

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The end of an era

The end of an era

🕔12:55, 16.Dec 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: With the September swoon in risk assets, markets have simply moved to unprice the optimism built up over the summer about the prospects of a pause in Fed tightening …  

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Barometer: Donkere wolken aan de hemel

Barometer: Donkere wolken aan de hemel

🕔16:44, 15.Nov 2022

De vooruitzichten voor risicovollere activaklassen zien er minder goed uit omdat renteverhogingen de economische groei wereldwijd blijven afremmen. De vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie worden slechter. Naarmate de centrale banken de rente verhogen om de inflatie te bestrijden, zal niet alleen

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The long road to normalization

The long road to normalization

🕔14:21, 7.Nov 2022

Multi Asset Monthly: Central banks’ top priority remains the fight against inflation; nevertheless, their communication seems more balanced, indicating that expectations are also being considered. Inflation will moderate in 2023 but we are not close to a pivot. Central banks

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Beginning The Next Phase Of The 2022 Bear Market

Beginning The Next Phase Of The 2022 Bear Market

🕔08:28, 4.Nov 2022

Following the summer rally, risk assets once again overprice soft-landing prospects requiring a cautious stance on the part of investors going into year-end. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that economic risks are increasingly skewed towards recession especially in Europe

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Barometer: Aandelen blijven onaantrekkelijk, maar obligaties verdienen meer aandacht

Barometer: Aandelen blijven onaantrekkelijk, maar obligaties verdienen meer aandacht

🕔11:04, 18.Oct 2022

Aangezien de donkere wolken boven de economie nog niet zijn verdwenen, zullen aandelen wellicht verder dalen. Obligaties beginnen er echter aantrekkelijk uit te zien.

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The bear-market rally is over

The bear-market rally is over

🕔08:49, 13.Sep 2022

The Jackson Hole conference made it clear that fighting inflation, even if it leads to economic hardship, is priority number one for monetary policymakers. Except for the Bank of Japan, central banks will stick to their aggressive tightening path, …

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Barometer: Zomerrally is al een verre herinnering

Barometer: Zomerrally is al een verre herinnering

🕔14:19, 12.Sep 2022

Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk

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All Eyes On The Merge

All Eyes On The Merge

🕔14:25, 6.Sep 2022

The Bitcoin Monthly With futures in backwardation and options open interest at an all-time high, ether is the most hedged asset in the crypto market as it transitions to …

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Rising Risk of Recession

Rising Risk of Recession

🕔16:33, 2.Sep 2022

May’s reprieve proved short-lived as recession joined inflation fears pushing equity/bond prices lower in June. Concerns have risen as the increasingly hawkish Fed rhetoric at its June meeting suggests a willingness to trade rising …

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Four shifts

Four shifts

🕔16:46, 30.Aug 2022

This downturn is global, not US-centric. The current gap between optimistic equity analysts and cautious economists is particularly pronounced. We believe earnings estimates are at risk as the slowdown we anticipate …

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Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

Barometer: Winstberekening klopt niet

🕔08:13, 18.Aug 2022

Aandelen blijven kwetsbaar voor een golf naar beneden bijgestelde winstprognoses, vooral in de VS en Europa. Vertragende economische groei, stijgende inflatie, strakker monetair beleid en verhoogde geopolitieke risico's hebben allemaal hun tol geëist in de financiële …

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Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

Building Asymmetry in Portfolios

🕔08:52, 12.Aug 2022

Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …

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Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg

Barometer: Goedkoop, maar niet goedkoop genoeg

🕔08:30, 19.Jul 2022

Zelfs als de aanhoudende sell-off op de aandelenmarkten de waarderingen naar niveaus brengt die niet stroken met de fundamentals, zijn er goede redenen om onderwogen te blijven in aandelen en hoogrentende obligaties.

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Rates roller coaster

Rates roller coaster

🕔17:38, 12.Jul 2022

The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) decision at its latest meeting to raise the fed funds rate by 75bp pushed expectations for the peak level next year to more than 4%. Simultaneously, fears that economic growth is slowing more quickly than

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Slowflation in the offing

Slowflation in the offing

🕔08:34, 6.Jul 2022

While some of the risk factors we spoke about last month – OPEC’s lack of cooperation and China’s lockdowns – have eased somewhat in recent weeks, growth and inflation concerns have continued to pile up, challenging policymakers and investors. The

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Maintaining a cautious tilt

Maintaining a cautious tilt

🕔14:40, 28.Jun 2022

Thanks to a month-end rally, global equities ultimately posted relatively flat returns for the month of May. It was a volatile month for global bonds, too. Yields initially spiked higher, with the 10-year US Treasury yield peaking at 3.2%, while

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Starting to Price an Economic Slowdown

Starting to Price an Economic Slowdown

🕔12:28, 28.Jun 2022

May provided a reprieve for investors as a late-month rally in both equities and bonds recouped much of the losses seen early in the month. Economic surprises in the US began to miss consensus expectations in May with a sharp

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Tech sell-off and bond temptation

Tech sell-off and bond temptation

🕔15:32, 14.Jun 2022

CROSS ASSET Investment Strategy – June 2022: The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal as the 10Y UST yield temporarily reached the 3% threshold, falling close to 2.75% recently on economic growth concerns. We think investors

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Barometer: Voorzichtigheid is de moeder van de porseleinkast

Barometer: Voorzichtigheid is de moeder van de porseleinkast

🕔10:27, 13.Jun 2022

De stijgende reële rentevoeten en de bezorgdheid over de vooruitzichten voor de wereldeconomie wegen op onze vooruitzichten voor aandelen, wat ons ertoe aanzet onze allocatie naar onderwogen te verlagen Activatoewijzing: een zenuwoorlog Inflatie Oorlog COVID Deze eisen elk hun tol

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Given stagflationary concerns, our outlook remains cautious

Given stagflationary concerns, our outlook remains cautious

🕔11:44, 6.Jun 2022

Multi-Asset Investments Monthly views  Given “stagflationary” concerns, our outlook remains cautious, with a preference for quality in developed markets. Stagflation describes a combination of slowing growth and accelerating inflation.

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Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

Looming divergences and the great asset repricing

🕔14:01, 25.May 2022

Diverging economic outlooks in Europe, US and China, along with persisting geopolitical risks, underscore the need to explore relative value opportunities across asset classes. On duration, we think investors should be flexible but no longer as short as they were

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Growing Risks on the Horizon

Growing Risks on the Horizon

🕔08:45, 25.May 2022

April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …

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Where to Hide?

Where to Hide?

🕔15:39, 24.May 2022

Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe  War, inflation and lingering COVID-19 impacts have set the stage for a challenging start to 2022 for investors, with both stocks and bonds down over 9% in response. While dynamic, stocks and bonds on

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Barometer: Een wreed april kan het dieptepunt markeren

Barometer: Een wreed april kan het dieptepunt markeren

🕔09:41, 16.May 2022

Aandelen hadden in april te lijden onder een flinke selloff, maar er zijn aanwijzingen dat beleggers te bearish zijn. Het beleggingsklimaat lijkt moeilijker te worden. De wereldwijde economische groei vertraagt, de inflatie neemt toe, er lijkt geen oplossing in zicht

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Fixed Income Monthly – April 2022

Fixed Income Monthly – April 2022

🕔12:58, 3.May 2022

The quarter that just ended was dramatic in many respects. The Russian invasion of Ukraine caused a humanitarian crisis that will have long-lasting consequences, and one that has significantly reshaped the geopolitical landscape. The events that have unfolded also sent

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The value winter is thawing

The value winter is thawing

🕔16:02, 2.May 2022

Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level

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A Time for Defensiveness

A Time for Defensiveness

🕔10:32, 2.May 2022

Credit markets came under pressure again in March, with most fixed income asset classes generating negative total returns, although excess returns were mostly positive. Treasury yields traded sharply higher, and the yield curve flattened, with two- and 10-year Treasury yields

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A tale of two shocks

A tale of two shocks

🕔10:04, 14.Apr 2022

The economy is facing two shocks. An inflation shock has led to a sharp hawkish shift by central banks. The Fed is now expected to raise policy rates to 2.5% this year. The BoJ is the outlier in the developed

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Balancing Act

Balancing Act

🕔16:09, 11.Apr 2022

The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent war involving a global military superpower has created significant uncertainty for investors. The condemnation from the rest of the world has been united, backed up with punitive sanctions that most certainly will

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Global Fixed Income Update March 2022

Global Fixed Income Update March 2022

🕔08:40, 8.Apr 2022

Contents:  Macroeconomic outlook pre-Russia/Ukraine conflict Impact of Russia/Ukraine Valuations Investment conclusions Appendix

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Focusing on Dynamic Risk Management

Focusing on Dynamic Risk Management

🕔09:11, 23.Mar 2022

Global stock and bond markets slumped in February as the Russian invasion of Ukraine rattled markets, creating the prospect of a global commodity shock as Western nations moved to sanction Russia, among the world’s largest …

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Barometer: Wanneer conflicten uitbreken, leidt kalme reflectie tot uitwijkacties

Barometer: Wanneer conflicten uitbreken, leidt kalme reflectie tot uitwijkacties

🕔08:05, 18.Mar 2022

De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft tot ernstig tumult op de markten geleid. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. Net wanneer de Covid-19-crisis begint af te nemen, breekt er een conflict in Oekraïne uit. De vraag die

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Wereldeconomie kan tegen een stootje, zolang energieleveranties op peil blijven

Wereldeconomie kan tegen een stootje, zolang energieleveranties op peil blijven

🕔13:08, 15.Mar 2022

Visie op asset allocatie – Maart 2022: Vorige maand meldden we dat er nog hoop was voor aandelenbeleggers voor 2022. Dat denken we nog steeds, al moeten beleggers nog wel geduld hebben. De reden is uiteraard de Russische inval in

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Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

🕔11:34, 15.Mar 2022

In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to

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Barometer: When conflicts erupt, calm reflection trumps evasive action

Barometer: When conflicts erupt, calm reflection trumps evasive action

🕔12:13, 11.Mar 2022

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused severe market ructions. But the economic fallout from the crisis appears manageable. Just as the Covid crisis has begun to fade, a conflict in Ukraine is erupting. The question investors now face is the

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Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

Volatility and uncertainty warrant higher risk premiums

🕔15:18, 10.Mar 2022

In the light of rising inflation numbers, central banks have made sharp hawkish shifts. The Fed is now expected to hike rates five times this year and to start rolling off its balance sheet. Even the ECB is expected to

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European equity market: the great value rotation and the dividend appeal

European equity market: the great value rotation and the dividend appeal

🕔10:21, 9.Mar 2022

January 2022 was a record month for European value equity, in terms of its outperformance vs. growth. The market’s reassessment of central banks’ actions after their hawkish turn has driven real yields higher and benefitted value stocks, while growth sectors

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Global equities tumbled over January

Global equities tumbled over January

🕔16:26, 3.Mar 2022

Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,

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Barometer: Kopen tijdens een terugval

Barometer: Kopen tijdens een terugval

🕔14:21, 3.Mar 2022

De vooruitzichten voor aandelen zijn bemoedigend in de nasleep van een sterke sell-off, aangezien de groei van de wereldeconomie zal versnellen onder leiding van China.

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Global equities tumbled over January

Global equities tumbled over January

🕔13:36, 21.Feb 2022

Global equities tumbled over January, largely driven by increasingly hawkish central bank expectations in response to inflationary pressures. Rising geopolitical risks also knocked risk assets, sparked by fears that Russia was about to invade Ukraine. Global bonds also sold off,

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