De omikronvariant van het coronavirus heeft misschien tot meer beperkingen geleid, maar het economische herstel blijft niettemin veerkrachtig. De aandelen lijken dan ook niet kwetsbaar voor een correctie. Een nieuw jaar, oude problemen? De snel verspreidende omikronvariant heeft geleid …
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe: While stocks have broadly rallied nearly 80% off the lows of March 2020, leadership within has flip‑flopped between expensive, defensive growth …
Based on our view that the global economy is mid-cycle, we remain overweight overall risk. However, we believe with risk assets seemingly priced for compelling opportunities, they are also more vulnerable to exogenous …
Hoewel de financiële markten zich zorgen maken over de opkomst van de Omicron-variant van het coronavirus, moeten beleggers niet panikeren. De economieën zijn beter uitgerust om een nieuwe golf van besmettingen aan te kunnen. Risicovollere activaklassen noteren tegen of dicht
Market recap: Global equities initially rallied, but later dropped towards the month-end on fears of the COVID-19 variant, Omicron. Global bonds rallied over …
Macro data beat expectations in November, but the Omicron variant casts some doubt on the near-term outlook. Several countries imposed new mobility restrictions, although less severe than earlier measures. The renewed Covid restrictions will delay the normalization trajectory. High energy
Hoewel obligaties het moeilijk zullen hebben bij een stijging van de rente, zouden aandelen een behoorlijk eencijferig rendement moeten genereren, omdat sterke bedrijfswinsten een daling van de winstveelvouden van aandelen compenseren.
Supply chain constraints and higher input prices has led to worries that the transitory inflation story may last longer than anticipated. Markets have now become concerned that higher-than-expected inflation may incentivize Central Banks to increase the speed of future monetary
Hoewel de inflatiedruk de obligatierente zal doen stijgen, zou een gezonde stijging van de bedrijfswinsten aandelen moeten ondersteunen. De wereldwijde financiële markten hebben het moeilijk. De monetaire voorwaarden worden strenger terwijl knelpunten in de toeleveringsketen hun tol beginnen te eisen
Investment Monthly – November 2021: We maintain our preference for stocks over bonds as equity premiums remain significantly higher than those for fixed income assets, while on a historical basis, stocks outperform bonds while labour markets improve. A scenario of
After 18 months of exceptionally strong equity markets, most measures of valuations look high against their own absolute histories. The measure most favoured among long-time equity bears over the past decade or so has been the Shiller Cyclically-Adjusted Price Earnings
Fixed income funds invest in bonds whose price is influenced by movements in interest rates, changes in the credit rating of bond issuers, and other factors such as inflation and market dynamics. In general, as interest rates rise the price
Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van
After a good start, September saw equity markets take a hit, particularly in emerging Asia. Alongside ongoing investor concerns about the pandemic and weakening global growth momentum, markets were rocked by news of debt payment problems at Chinese property developer
Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Coming out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed could begin to wind down its monthly bond buying by year-end, if the economy and coronavirus
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …
Stocks rose for a seventh straight month during August amid ongoing optimism that the global economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 slump and as the US Federal Reserve indicated it won’t rush to …
Asset Allocation Monthly: During August, investor edginess increased. Financial markets partly reflected this with a decline in equities and commodities, a fall in long-term bond yields, and a rise in the US dollar. Expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy
Portfolio perspectives – August 2021: The volatility we have seen just in the two months since we published our midyear investment outlook reflects – in our view – the unusually wide range of divergent yet plausible economic outcomes that potentially
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe At the same time that China has taken steps to stabilise its slowing economy with measures such as a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut and pledge to increase fiscal support, policymakers …
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
Zelfs als China zijn regelgeving aanscherpt en het aantal Covid-19-besmettingen onaangenaam hoog blijft, zullen de aandelen waarschijnlijk niet lijden als het economische herstel zich doorzet. Voor beleggers is er dit jaar geen zomerpauze. De wereldeconomie blijft erop vooruitgaan ondanks de
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this
Central banks remain in the driving seat for rates markets and the June Fed meeting was the most recent example of how sensitive markets are to even small changes in the outlook for monetary policy. June’s FOMC meeting saw a
These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in
The EURO STOXX 50® ESG Index was introduced in 2019 as a sustainable alternative to the flagship EURO STOXX 50® Index. The ESG index follows product- and norms-based exclusions and integrates companies’ ESG scores into the stock selection. The result
Dekkingsgraadscan pensioenfondsen: In deze dekkingsgraadscan vindt u meer informatie over de dekkingsgraad van een gemiddeld Nederlands pensioenfonds. We geven een overzicht van de ontwikkeling van de feitelijke en (12-maands) voortschrijdend gemiddelde dekkingsgraad in het afgelopen jaar. Daarnaast maken we op
The rapid roll-out of vaccinations across the US and the UK, with Europe catching up, pushed developed market PMIs once again to record highs in May. Business activity and new orders have accelerated across both manufacturing and services sectors, business
Asset Allocation Monthly – June 2021: Investor attention is turning to where economic growth will accelerate next as vaccine rollouts allow more and more economies to reopen. The current leaders, the US and UK, will soon pass the baton to
Multi Asset Monthly: Macro data are increasingly heralding the start of the economic normalization process in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. In the US more infrastructure spending has been announced. Inflation numbers and expectations have risen, but
In a game of cards “standing pat” is to retain one’s hand as dealt, without drawing other cards. Standing pat also captures how we have managed our asset allocation in recent months, making few changes to our overall preferences. We
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe A renewed surge in coronavirus cases across several emerging markets (EM) countries—including India, Brazil, and Argentina—is weighing heavily on these economies as they struggle with insufficient medical infrastructure and access to vaccines. In
Asset Allocation Monthly: Equity and fixed-income markets have benefited over the last year not only from stepped-up central bank support, but also from a clear abandonment of ‘austerity’ as a response to economic shocks. Instead of regaining investors’ trust through
Terwijl de economische omstandigheden blijven verbeteren, zijn er tekenen dat de rally in de markt vooruitloopt op de fundamentals. Wij hebben onze positie in aandelen dan ook teruggebracht tot 'neutraal'. Na slechts vier maanden hebben de wereldwijde aandelenmarkten onze doelstellingen
April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout is improving the prospect of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain heavily supported …
Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …
Stocks extended gains in March as countries pushed ahead with their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, the US passed a new stimulus package and major central banks indicated they are likely to keep interest rates low even as the economy rebounds. The
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …
At the end of last year, I reflected that you “gotta have faith in low discount rates” for risk assets, such as equities, to continue to perform well in 2021. While on the one hand the economic and earnings recovery from Covid-19 was, and continues to be, more potent than expected, allowing companies to grow-in to elevated multiples; on the other hand, an increase in ultra-cheap capital …
A year after the Covid-19 crisis struck, the US Congress approved the latest stimulus package, a massive $1.9 trillion plan representing 9% of GDP. It came only 3 months after a $900bn package was adopted.
Since our February update, the Return to Normal Index has ticked up only slightly (Figure 1). This is not surprising: large segments of the population are still not eligible to get a vaccination. But the good news is that Covid cases, hospitalisations and positivity rates continue to fall precipitously, and vaccine distribution is accelerating. Among the index subcomponents …
