After a good start, September saw equity markets take a hit, particularly in emerging Asia. Alongside ongoing investor concerns about the pandemic and weakening global growth momentum, markets were rocked by news of debt payment problems at Chinese property developer
Nu het sterke economische herstel van China na de pandemie in gevaar komt door het debacle van Evergrande, moeten beleggers hun verdediging versterken. Er wordt steeds meer een strakker monetair beleid verwacht. De centrale banken blijven voorbereidingen treffen om de
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe Coming out of the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signalled that the Fed could begin to wind down its monthly bond buying by year-end, if the economy and coronavirus
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …
Hoewel de verspreiding van de nieuwe Delta Covidvariant de wereldeconomie heeft verstoord, zouden stimulansen en vaccinatieprogramma's een sterke groeivertraging moeten voorkomen. De economische groei is de afgelopen maanden duidelijk vertraagd, grotendeels door de verspreiding van de bijzonder besmettelijke Delta-variant van
Stocks rose for a seventh straight month during August amid ongoing optimism that the global economy continues to rebound from the COVID-19 slump and as the US Federal Reserve indicated it won’t rush to …
Asset Allocation Monthly: During August, investor edginess increased. Financial markets partly reflected this with a decline in equities and commodities, a fall in long-term bond yields, and a rise in the US dollar. Expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s monetary
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy
Portfolio perspectives – August 2021: The volatility we have seen just in the two months since we published our midyear investment outlook reflects – in our view – the unusually wide range of divergent yet plausible economic outcomes that potentially
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe At the same time that China has taken steps to stabilise its slowing economy with measures such as a surprise reserve requirement ratio cut and pledge to increase fiscal support, policymakers …
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
Zelfs als China zijn regelgeving aanscherpt en het aantal Covid-19-besmettingen onaangenaam hoog blijft, zullen de aandelen waarschijnlijk niet lijden als het economische herstel zich doorzet. Voor beleggers is er dit jaar geen zomerpauze. De wereldeconomie blijft erop vooruitgaan ondanks de
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this
Central banks remain in the driving seat for rates markets and the June Fed meeting was the most recent example of how sensitive markets are to even small changes in the outlook for monetary policy. June’s FOMC meeting saw a
These past few weeks have seen an interesting shift in investor fears, from inflation to growth, and back again – with a dose of Delta variant fear added to the mix. Indeed, growth is likely to have already peaked in
The EURO STOXX 50® ESG Index was introduced in 2019 as a sustainable alternative to the flagship EURO STOXX 50® Index. The ESG index follows product- and norms-based exclusions and integrates companies’ ESG scores into the stock selection. The result
Dekkingsgraadscan pensioenfondsen: In deze dekkingsgraadscan vindt u meer informatie over de dekkingsgraad van een gemiddeld Nederlands pensioenfonds. We geven een overzicht van de ontwikkeling van de feitelijke en (12-maands) voortschrijdend gemiddelde dekkingsgraad in het afgelopen jaar. Daarnaast maken we op
The rapid roll-out of vaccinations across the US and the UK, with Europe catching up, pushed developed market PMIs once again to record highs in May. Business activity and new orders have accelerated across both manufacturing and services sectors, business
Asset Allocation Monthly – June 2021: Investor attention is turning to where economic growth will accelerate next as vaccine rollouts allow more and more economies to reopen. The current leaders, the US and UK, will soon pass the baton to
Multi Asset Monthly: Macro data are increasingly heralding the start of the economic normalization process in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. In the US more infrastructure spending has been announced. Inflation numbers and expectations have risen, but
In a game of cards “standing pat” is to retain one’s hand as dealt, without drawing other cards. Standing pat also captures how we have managed our asset allocation in recent months, making few changes to our overall preferences. We
Global Asset Allocation: The View From Europe A renewed surge in coronavirus cases across several emerging markets (EM) countries—including India, Brazil, and Argentina—is weighing heavily on these economies as they struggle with insufficient medical infrastructure and access to vaccines. In
Asset Allocation Monthly: Equity and fixed-income markets have benefited over the last year not only from stepped-up central bank support, but also from a clear abandonment of ‘austerity’ as a response to economic shocks. Instead of regaining investors’ trust through
Terwijl de economische omstandigheden blijven verbeteren, zijn er tekenen dat de rally in de markt vooruitloopt op de fundamentals. Wij hebben onze positie in aandelen dan ook teruggebracht tot 'neutraal'. Na slechts vier maanden hebben de wereldwijde aandelenmarkten onze doelstellingen
April started on a positive note for financial markets, after an exceptional first quarter, with divergent fortunes for equities and global bonds. Going forward, the progression of the recovery will likely be the key market driver, leading to greater divergences.
The US market hit all-time highs during the first quarter and a number of non – US markets joined the march upwards, including the Canadian and European equity markets. Those non-US markets have tended to have a healthy tilt toward
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
The ebb and flow of US real interest rates, inflation expectations and the future level of policy rates remain the key drivers for asset returns globally. For example, local currency emerging market debt yields have largely mirrored those of …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout is improving the prospect of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain heavily supported …
Rising UST yields amid hopes of economic recovery are causing the markets to question whether the Fed will pause its bond-buying programme. We don’t think the Fed will change its accommodative stance in the near term. However, investors should prepare …
Stocks extended gains in March as countries pushed ahead with their COVID-19 vaccine rollouts, the US passed a new stimulus package and major central banks indicated they are likely to keep interest rates low even as the economy rebounds. The
President Joe Biden signed the $1.9tn American Recovery Plan into law this month, adding to the $0.9tn stimulus in late 2020. Debate is turning to the next bill on longer-term infrastructure, clean infrastructure and inequality measures …
The economy remains on pause in many parts of the world, but the vaccine rollout improves the odds of normalization and supports a positive medium-term outlook. In the meantime, global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from …
At the end of last year, I reflected that you “gotta have faith in low discount rates” for risk assets, such as equities, to continue to perform well in 2021. While on the one hand the economic and earnings recovery from Covid-19 was, and continues to be, more potent than expected, allowing companies to grow-in to elevated multiples; on the other hand, an increase in ultra-cheap capital …
A year after the Covid-19 crisis struck, the US Congress approved the latest stimulus package, a massive $1.9 trillion plan representing 9% of GDP. It came only 3 months after a $900bn package was adopted.
Since our February update, the Return to Normal Index has ticked up only slightly (Figure 1). This is not surprising: large segments of the population are still not eligible to get a vaccination. But the good news is that Covid cases, hospitalisations and positivity rates continue to fall precipitously, and vaccine distribution is accelerating. Among the index subcomponents …
After years of muted inflation, investors are becoming concerned as a massive amount of pent-up demand is expected to be unleashed as the economy reemerges in the coming months, bringing higher price pressures. The excess savings that consumers have accumulated over the past year, plus an additional near USD 1.9 trillion fiscal package on the way, could also lead to demand …
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
Het economisch herstel dat in de loop van 2021 aan kracht zal winnen, zou niet leiden tot een snel oplopende inflatie.
US real yields surged towards the end of February, spurring unpleasant memories of the ‘taper tantrum’ in 2013 when comments by Ben Bernanke, then Chair of the Federal Reserve, set off a 100bp rise in 10-year Treasury yields over several months. Now, as then, market expectations …
How would investors have positioned themselves if they had correctly foreseen the course of the Covid-19 pandemic twelve months ago? Global equities (MSCI AC World Index) had already fallen by 14% in February 2020. In March, they fell by …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
The economic rebound slowed in the fourth quarter, after a strong rebound in the third quarter and a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain supported by the large stimulus measures from fiscal and monetary institutions. The positive vaccine …
Monthly Market Monitor – February 2021
China’s Digital Currency Electronic Payment (DCEP) system was proposed in 2014 and will be one of the first Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDC) in the world. The DCEP was first tested in April 2020 within Shenzhen, Chengdu, Suzhou and Xiong’an New Area (Xiong’an). The pilot in Xiong’an is part of preparations for the 2022 Winter Olympics. The pilots may be expanded to cover several …
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain
Monthly Investment Outlook – December Key points Downside risks weigh on Q4 growth in several countries due to rising contagion and pressure on hospitals; European activity should contract in Q4, and a parallel slowdown is expected in the US, while
Multi Asset Monthly – Global Strategy Economic outlook A renewed surge in detected virus cases has led several, mainly European, governments to take additional measures to restrict mobility and to impose soft lockdowns. This has impacted the path of the
