Commodities Outlook for April 2023 The main theme of the text, titled "Commodities Outlook for April 2023 – Technical Note," is the BMO Capital Markets Commodity Price Index. This index provides an overview of the price movement of 20 crucial
A cross-sector look at the energy transition Editorial Welcome: The Energy Transition Becomes More Complex Amid Geopolitical Shifts and Security of Supply As the energy transition continues to gather pace, decarbonization remains a key priority for both policymakers and market
Where is the Low in US Stocks? In a recent piece, I suggested the PE on the S&P 500 had another 1-2 points to lose, so two things now matter most. The E in PE is one factor and, on that score, the outlook is not
A key channel of contagion to fixed income markets outside of Russia/Ukraine is likely to be through commodity prices. Russia is the largest exporter of natural gas and the second-largest exporter of crude oil and petroleum products. The US has
De Russische invasie van Oekraïne maakt de beleggers nerveus. Maar de economische gevolgen van het conflict lijken beheersbaar. De Russische invasie van Oekraïne heeft de financiële markten onrustig gemaakt, met een sterke sell-off van aandelen en een rally van goud
Overnight headlines that Russia has begun a full-scale invasion of Ukraine have sent financial markets into acute risk-off mode. Equity markets fell sharply, oil prices jumped above $100 per barrel, and government bond yields declined. Markets had already been impacted
Investors remain nervous about inflation and hawkish central banks, but it’s been the tensions over Ukraine that have unsettled them most over the past week. This has been reflected in oil hitting new highs and another leg down for global
Could a lack of upstream investment lead to a shortage of oil and higher prices? We think lower investment was due to falling prices and believe it is now reversing. We remain wary of oil.
After surviving a steep collapse in oil prices in 2020, major oil companies are being pressed by louder calls to figure out their contributions to societal goals of net zero emissions by 2050. In recent months, activist shareholders led by
Growth in energy markets slowed in 2019 in line with weaker economic growth and a partial unwinding of some of the one-off factors that boosted energy demand in 2018.This slowdown was particularly evident in the US, Russia and India, each
Crude continues to oscillate, as the pace of economic recovery and uncertainty over lifting or re-imposing lockdowns drive market sentiment. A weaker U.S. dollar, negative real interest rates and uncertainty amid the coronavirus pandemic are propelling gold prices. We expect
We are cautious about the oil price after its rapid recovery. A weaker dollar, low real interest rates and higher inflation expectations are likely to support gold. We reaffirm our belief that China will meet the requirements of the phase-one
May: Oil is back… Risky assets continued their ascent in May. The best-performing asset class was commodities, and oil in particular. After an extremely negative performance in April, oil rebounded sharply. Pandemic fears continue to wane, and countries are slowly
Market Commentary The first four months of 2020 have been exceptional for financial markets due to the spread of the coronavirus. Out of all asset classes, commodities were probably hit most severely due to the general collapse in global economic
Treasury Market Dislocations This past month market volatility and risk premiums rose to levels not seen since the global financial crisis of 2008- 2009. Sparked by a global collapse in activity in response to the Coronavirus pandemic, the increase in
CIO Commodity Commentary Oil is again trading near its five-week high, with a West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price of around 29.5 dollars per barrel – a bit higher than half its end-February level. After April's rollercoaster …
Multi-Asset Outlook It’s been a humbling quarter. We thought 2020 would be a pretty good year in financial markets considering solid leading economic indicators and lower tail risks from the US-China trade war and Brexit. Then came COVID-19, followed by
Multi-asset market outlook April was a good month for most risky assets. These positive returns, however, came on the back of a brutal correction. While most asset classes rebounded in April, some failed to find a bottom. Oil prices continued
The results of Q2 2020 ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have to be seen in the context of the outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic and subsequent mitigation measures. 1 Expectations for euro area inflation, growth and unemployment were
April In this blogpost, we will update you on our monthly best-reads and longest-reads. If you follow our weekly blogposts, you know the best read research articles on a weekly basis. In this monthly overview, we provide you with a
Three key principles for investors in a postcrisis world. The past few months have delivered a near‑perfect storm for value investing. Collapsing oil prices and falling interest rates have put tremendous pressure on the energy and financials sectors—two of the
Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment that will likely become one part of the building
Investment Strategy Commentary Oil's Winners & Losers; Remdesivir's Data Countries across the globe are slowly starting the process of loosening public health restrictions in their efforts to restart economic growth. Meanwhile, we received a positive surprise about a COVID-19 treatment
Even by the oil market’s standards 2020 has been exceptionally volatile. The market has faced unanticipated supply and demand shocks, leading to the commodity’s worst quarter in history. Louise Fribourg, Markets Analyst within our Multi Asset team explores what the
23 April 2020 A reprieve in oil markets led to a reprieve in equity markets, which rebounded 1.5% in Europe and 2.3% in the US after two negative days. WTI prices bounced to USD15 per barrel and Brent recovered to
#17 It’s time for the best read research again! But let’s start with an article that was read the longest: “Credit markets will remain challenged amid market volatility from COVID-19” by Capital Group. While this article was published in March,
Our view is that allocating to defensiveness is more important than timing a bottom in asset prices and adding to risk at this stage. The Japanese yen is increasingly showing its defensive properties, Chinese government bonds are offering attractive yields,
Perhaps, it is a sign of the times we live in. Over the past decade, investors have had to get used to the idea of nominal interest rates falling below zero – something economists once thought would be impossible. Could
#16 Again, the page visitors found most interesting this past week was our Events calendar page. In this calendar, you can find all kinds of webinars happening in the investment sector. For example, next week AQR Capital Management holds a
Strong deal but uncertainties remain The OPEC+ production cut agreement is historic In particular, the length of the deal was a positive surprise There are many uncertainties left, though, which kept oil prices trading sideways ABN AMRO oil price forecast
Oil prices dropped to the lowest levels in 18 years before prices ballooned Since our previous Energy Monitor on 18 March, oil prices have remained very volatile, and double-digit percentage declines or gains may look like being the new normal.
Sharp sell-off in the CRB index and still more to come Demand shock builds on existing supply glut The desired gold position?
Weekly Investment Commentary U.S. stocks peaked on 19 February, then plummeted in the deepest and fastest decline to a bear market in history. Last week, prices rebounded sharply, as the S&P 500 Index experienced its largest weekly gain since 1938,
Focus: Markets, stimulus packages, Eurozone inflation This week brought massive gains on the stock markets and yield premiums on the interest rate markets fell for the riskier investments. Spreads on Italian government bonds also fell. The markets have thus reacted
Key takeaways The energy sector has been hit harder by the COVID-19 outbreak than most areas, as a combination of supply and demand challenges has weighed on crude oil prices. US shale exploration and production (E&P) companies are more vulnerable
The gold price has been falling but a supportive rates environment and safe-haven demand brighten our outlook. The Saudi-Russian oil-price war broke out at the worst possible time. Any further negotiations are likely to involve a new kid on the
Investment Perspective The rapidity of declines in both equity and credit markets over the last month has been of record pace, as investors have grappled with the uncertainty surrounding the economic impact of COVID-19 (coronavirus). In addition, the surprise oil
De eerste drie investment research rapporten hebben als overeenkomst het onderwerp ‘Corona’. “Epidemics and Stock Market Performance since 1980” van First Trust is een one-pager. De observaties die uit de gepubliceerde grafiek en tabel zijn getrokken, zijn als volgt: 6-month
Key messages At the time we are writing, major losses are occurring in risk assets, with equity indexes in Europe opening down today by around -6% to -8% and volatility spiking (VIX index above 58, a level not touched since
Investment Talks US: Covid-19 & Oil Wars Warrant Decisive Action – Fed moves to ease financial stress Uncertainty surrounding the magnitude and duration of the global health crisis is driving volatility and testing liquidity across the world’s financial markets. In addition
OPEC and partners failed to reach a new production cut agreement Russia refused to join the OPEC meeting on reaching an agreement for a bigger production cut. As a result, the current production cut agreement (officially -1.7 mb/d + 0.4
While new infections of the novel coronavirus in China and South Korea have declined noticeably, the sharp increase in Italy has led to drastic measures by state authorities. At the same time, the situation in the oil market came to
Global Perspectives January 2020 After such fantastic returns from equities and bonds in 2019 and a 10-year bull market, it makes sense to ask: should we take those chips off the table, de-risk and bank the profits? To answer this question,
W e l l s , w i r e s , a n d w h e e l s … Oil needs long-term break-evens of $10-$20/bbl to remain competitive in mobility. In this report we introduce the concept of
Last week, the OPEC has decided, together with her partners (combined OPEC+), to increase its production cut agreement. The existing agreement to lower crude production by 1.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) was raised with another 503 kb/d to a
Commodity Monthly Monitor We are still waiting for a confirmation of a “phase one” deal between US and China, with the term only really being used by the US. In the absence of a deal, we could see US tariffs
On the Markets As we head toward the end of the third quarter, I can’t help but think it feels very similar to last year in many ways. The S&P 500 is trading right where it was a year ago, near its all-time
Northern Trust Global Asset Allocation Investment Perspective / October 2019 In addition to assessing the severity of the global economic slowdown, markets are wrestling with the U.S./China trade war, Brexit and the 2020 U.S. presidential election. The rising poll numbers
The largest oil supply disruption on record The attacks on the Abqaiq and Khurais oil facilities in Saudi Arabia on 14 September triggered the largest oil market disruption on record. The attacks caused 5.7mbd of Saudi production to be shut
The first reports from Saudi Arabia after drone attacks on its key Abqaiq and Khurais oil fields seemed grim. About half of Saudi production was lost, and the drones inflicted significant damage on two key types of equipment: spheroids and
