Een zachte landing van de wereldeconomie lijkt steeds onwaarschijnlijker. Dat betekent dat risicovollere activaklassen nog verder kunnen dalen. De stijging van de aandelenmarkten die begon met de hittegolf deze zomer is volgens ons voorbij. Vanaf nu zullen de omstandigheden waarschijnlijk
In our previous outlook, we encouraged investors to tune out “noise” and focus on “signal” — economic and asset class fundamentals evidenced in hard data. We continue to endorse this approach, but acknowledge that even the most diligent followers of
April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …
The chance to see a positive resolution between Russia and Ukraine has continued to decline. Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tension appear to be the new reality – so market participants will just have to get used to it. Unlike in recent
Financial assets have undergone a significant repricing in the past quarter. Global growth is slowing, inflation is stubbornly high, financial conditions are tightening and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine introduces significant geopolitical instability. In the near term, punitive sanctions on Russia
High inflation could persist in 2022, but we’re not returning to the 1970s Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it. For the past 30 years, investors in developed markets
We entered 2021 with the prospect of new vaccines taming Covid-19 and that effort proved transformative in developed markets. The coronavirus persists, however, and its impact will continue to be felt in 2022 as the pandemic plays out. New therapies
2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in
ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to
Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents. Large economies are at different stages of their journey towards peak acceleration, but rising…
A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities Macro outlook | February 2021 Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1).
China Market Outlook 2021 Thanks to its rapid control of the coronavirus, China is the only major economy that is expected to post positive economic growth this year, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which recently raised
Outlook 2021 Fidelity International’s outlook for the global economy, multi asset, equities, fixed income and real estate If you are reading this, then you’ve lived through one of the most volatile periods in market history. The year to come may
In our 2021 Investment Outlook, we seek to help investors navigate the next phases of the pandemic, the legacy of the lockdowns, and the ensuing economic recovery. We also consider how solutions to the climate crisis can be found at
After contending with the terrible human and economic toll of a pandemic, as well as market volatility reminiscent of the financial crisis, investors could well be forgiven for wondering anxiously: what could 2021 possibly have in store for us?
"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis
#34 The holidays are coming to an end and you might have to catch up on research. Hereby a quick overview of the best read research on OpinioPro this last week. A variety of topics is addressed – you can
In June, investors were confronted with the conflicting impact of an improved outlook and a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus cases around the world. Optimism prevailed in the end; the …
We believe there is a striking disconnect between market pricing and the real economy, especially with regard to expected company earnings. In the past three months, risk assets have pulled back from the brink of collapse, as policy makers hosed
#25 + 26 This blogpost will cover the top five of the past two weeks. But first, let’s highlight a few webinars! Tuesday next week J.P. Morgan AM will host a mid-year outlook ‘How will the recovery take place?‘. The
Equity markets experienced the sharpest drop since the global nancial crisis amid shuttered businesses, decimated consumer condence, and unprecedented uncertainties about the outlook. Markets were “disrupted but not derailed,” due to swift actions from governments and the major central banks,
Point of View Companies globally are slashing dividend payments as they face a combination of declining revenues and regulatory measures discouraging dividend payments. Not surprisingly, companies are now prioritizing …
Global Market Outlook Volatility illustrates value of diversified allocations As of 27 February, global equities were down -7.5% since the start of 2020 while Corporate and EM bonds returned 1.1% and 1.7% respectively, as lower US Treasury yields led prices
Investors’ Outlook Like an unexpected disease befalling Venice in Thomas Mann’s famous novella1 , a hitherto unknown coronavirus has engulfed Europe seemingly out of the blue. What could illustrate our fears better than the Adriatic town’s cancellation of part of
Due to the global spreading of the Covid-19, fears for economic activity increase. The data released this month will provide a first assessment of the damages. The Fed has already cut rate and Central banks will follow also providing liquidity
QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group The rapid spread of the coronavirus has triggered a global health crisis, rocked global financial markets, and caused a sudden stop in the global …
Market commentary As the year began, so it ended, with yet another strong month for risk assets in December, capping one of the best years for markets since the financial crisis. Equities again led the charge, but leadership for once
What happens after a mid-cycle slow down? Once again, the most likely answer in the current extended cycle appears to be "yet another moderate upswing." In 2020, we expect about 5% in total returns for global equities. And lest that
Investment Perspective The short-term drivers of market performance are not always clear, but an improving outlook toward economic growth seems to be a clear contributor to the recent rally in equities. At the same time, a rapidly slowing manufacturing sector
Global Market Outlook (In-brief) An improving outlook • We retain a constructive view on risk assets (equities and credit) and multiasset income strategies, especially over the next 3-6 months. • Within equities, we have a preference for Developed Markets. The
Global equity markets delivered a roller-coaster ride for investors over the past year as worries about trade disputes and slowing economic growth escalated. Even so, equities continued to deliver large gains. By late October, the S&P 500 ® Index hit
Corporate earnings expectations have continued to fade as the impact of a global growth slowdown and related trade frictions take hold at the company level. Trade tensions between the United States and China remain elevated though negotiations aimed at reaching
The extended length of the current economic cycle obscures the many mini-cycles in industrial and consumer sectors – early identification of these periods can provide the potential for meaningful alpha opportunities. Companies that embrace digitalization, data capture and the use
The global economy is approaching a crossroad and we are looking to see how policy makers respond, in particular Chinese authorities and the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed). In our view, the most powerful responses would be a U.S.-China trade deal
October has been dominated by big political misses. But central banks have once again set the tone for capital markets, pushing them to new highs. October was all about talk of deals and crucial dead-lines. What happened? The deals got
We turn cautious on global equities on a tactical and medium-term view, as US stocks flirt with record highs even though risks to the world economy are mounting. In our last quarterly note, we pointed out that investors faced a
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
Global Investment Committee Outlook Time for more defense Nuveen’s investment theme in 2019 has been Expect a tougher climb. A straightforward declaration, but one with nuance and range: For the first half of the year, the emphasis was still on
In rough seas, the ship needs to stay the course Viewpoints – Why now could be the time to buy the dip in euro corporate bonds Equities – Investors flee to safety as the economic giants battle it out Focus
Global equities are in our view discounting a too positive economic scenario We maintain our base case scenario that global growth will accelerate in Q3 due to the fiscal and monetary stimulus launched by China and due to base effects
Three months ago, following a brutal period for equities, we noted that investors were likely to be rewarded by “being fearful when others are greedy – and greedy when others are fearful”. Spectacular returns over the first quarter demonstrated the
Big gains so far this year and continuing trade conflicts limit the near-time upside in equity markets. The combination of the year-to-date rally and deteriorating prospects of a trade deal make the near-term risk-reward for equities unattractive. In the near
Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of emerging markets have also been very strong.
Economy and markets The start of the year saw most major indices recover with double digit growth after a disappointing fourth quarter of 2018. Global equities rose 12.6% during the first quarter of 2019, as measured by the benchmark MSCI
Still some juice left, but not much Equity markets have remained buoyant in recent weeks: the S&P 500 is trending towards an all-time high, the European equity market (STOXX 600) is close to last year’s peak and the performances of
How resilient is the rebound? The start of 2019 brought a rebound for global equities. After a bruising fourth-quarter sell-off, stocks bounced back despite concerns over slowing economic growth and downward earnings revisions. The Federal Reserve’s decision to put rate
Fundamental Equities Outlook Since the beginning of the year, global equity markets have staged a swift comeback, turning around the dismal performance of the final quarter of 2018. Year-to-date, the MSCI World is up almost 16% in US dollar terms
Themes and implications from the Global Equity Investors Quarterly After a rip-roaring recovery from the miserable end to last year, it is easy to think of reasons to take a more cautious view of the prospects for world equity markets.
