The first quarter of 2022 was tumultuous for the global economy and financial markets. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine spawned a rally in US Treasuries, but the disruption to metals, agricultural and energy commodity markets only spurred inflation further.
The geopolitical crisis in Ukraine creates a stagflationary shock for global economies. Rising commodity prices have the potential to add momentum to already runaway inflation. Higher goods and services costs may hurt consumer confidence and create a drag on economic
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
Playing second fiddle. That’s how the 2022 economic forecasts feel when compared to 2021. For ’22, we see real growth running about 4%, or two times trend. That’s typically great performance, but when you’re coming off a phenomenal growth year
High inflation could persist in 2022, but we’re not returning to the 1970s Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it. For the past 30 years, investors in developed markets
In 2022 we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. Here’s what it means for fixed income investors. Monetary headwinds Throughout 2021 the invisible hand of easy global monetary policy supported financial
Global Rates: Yields edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar remains resilient versus DM, EM currencies, acting as a market barometer of COVID concerns Investment Grade: Despite Fed and virus uncertainty, we see spreads
ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to
Q4 2021 | Fixed Income Outlook: Global financial markets were mixed during the third quarter. Fixed-income markets faced volatility from multiple directions, including the Federal Reserve’s announced intention to taper monthly bond purchases, the expiration of the U.S. federal debt
August was friendly, which it often hasn’t been in the past. In bonds, little happened overall. Government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds showed a slightly negative total return, while the high-yield segment, as well as Asian bonds, just made it
Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents. Large economies are at different stages of their journey towards peak acceleration, but rising…
Fundamentals have continued to recover alongside vaccination efforts and reduced Covid restrictions, as well as fiscal and monetary accommodation driving increased general economic activity. We expect these factors …
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook: BlackRock’s quant bond experts tackle some hard questions around the recent inflation data. What is behind the headlines? Are rising prices just temporary or the start of something bigger? What does greater inflation uncertainty mean for
Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to
While fixed income markets mainly remained under pressure, they were not the worst performing asset class in March. That honor went to commodities. After leading the way over the past months, commodities came under pressure in March. The decline was broad based. Crude oil lost …
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …
Key takeaways: 1) We anticipate that the global growth recovery will remain intact as vaccine distribution will allow economies to gradually normalise, 2) Monetary and fiscal policy shall remain accommodative, 3) We expect this to be a positive environment for credit, whilst interest rate markets have room to breathe higher
Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would
Outlook 2021 Fidelity International’s outlook for the global economy, multi asset, equities, fixed income and real estate If you are reading this, then you’ve lived through one of the most volatile periods in market history. The year to come may
2021 Global Market Oultook New vaccines could accelerate recovery, boost cyclical sectors The 2020 global pandemic tested the ability of companies and investors to manage their way through an unforeseen and dangerous period. However, T. Rowe Price investment leaders believe the other side
In our 2021 Investment Outlook, we seek to help investors navigate the next phases of the pandemic, the legacy of the lockdowns, and the ensuing economic recovery. We also consider how solutions to the climate crisis can be found at
After contending with the terrible human and economic toll of a pandemic, as well as market volatility reminiscent of the financial crisis, investors could well be forgiven for wondering anxiously: what could 2021 possibly have in store for us?
Investment Outlook 2021 According to our scenario, all countries should see renewed growth in 2021. Economies have seen a gradual upturn since summer 2020, although the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and new local restrictions are hampering the recovery at the
"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis
Introduction: Binary outcomes In our recent CIO Autumn Outlook, we highlighted the binary nature of the key event risks heading into the final quarter, all of which still have the scope to move markets significantly. These are the US presidential
Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …
State Street Global Advisors has identified the key considerations for investors in the coming quarter, and how markets can be navigated using SPDR ETFs. We remain positive on emerging market debt (EMD). While EMD has recently risen,less developed markets have
#28 A variety of webinars were hosted this past week and next week a few interesting are coming up. Therefore, before we tell you the best read research of week 28, we will highlight two webinars. Last Thursday, Eurizon AM
We entered 2020 with expectations of substantially lower, but positive, beta returns following a near-ideal year for asset returns across the xed income spectrum. As the coronavirus took hold and benign economic expectations gave way to severe disruptions, March saw
#22 Since COVID-19 webinars are booming business, we see this in our calendar analytics as well. Every month the events page is a great hit. Coming month are some very interesting webinars again you don’t want to miss: On June
#16 Again, the page visitors found most interesting this past week was our Events calendar page. In this calendar, you can find all kinds of webinars happening in the investment sector. For example, next week AQR Capital Management holds a
Due to the global spreading of the Covid-19, fears for economic activity increase. The data released this month will provide a first assessment of the damages. The Fed has already cut rate and Central banks will follow also providing liquidity
QMA’s Global Multi-Asset Solutions Group The rapid spread of the coronavirus has triggered a global health crisis, rocked global financial markets, and caused a sudden stop in the global …
In the span of less than three months, the novel coronavirus has shuttered much of the global economy, bringing an 11-year economic expansion to an abrupt end. As our Chief Economist explains in the following pages, broad uncertainty remains regarding
– For the month ended February 29, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.80%. Year to the date, the index has returned 3.76%. – U.S. Treasuries returned 2.65% during the month as the yield on the 10-year
BMO Fixed Income For the month ended February 29, 2020, the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond Index returned 1.80%. Year to the date, the index has returned 3.76%. U.S. Treasuries returned 2.65% during the month as the yield on the
Market commentary As the year began, so it ended, with yet another strong month for risk assets in December, capping one of the best years for markets since the financial crisis. Equities again led the charge, but leadership for once
Living your best life, if we understand the parlance of our times, is to say live in the moment. This seems like a reasonable strategy for short-term enjoyment, but a fairly mediocre life plan. That approach appears a reasonable analog
Good Tidings for Investors Heading into Year-End Global equities continued their climb, considerably outperforming bonds through November and the first half of December. Within U.S. stocks, relative returns across the capitalization spectrum were fairly tight. Growth outperformed value but cyclical
In 2019, 10-year US Treasury bonds traded in a range of 1.46-2.78%, the fourth-widest range since 2010. In 2020, we think the 10-year Treasury may trade in a similar range, with additional volatility arising from many of the same factors
The year 2019 has given us plenty of fodder for commentary. The Federal Reserve changed its outlook materially, recession worries rose, and the trade war carried on. All the while, the economy has continued to perform admirably, with steady growth,
Convertible bond valuations and fundamentals remain attractive overall, making the asset class well prepared for a potentially trickier year ahead. As we close out a fruitful year for financial markets, it’s fair to say that 2020 will not start with
Corporate earnings expectations have continued to fade as the impact of a global growth slowdown and related trade frictions take hold at the company level. Trade tensions between the United States and China remain elevated though negotiations aimed at reaching
It’s not likely the conditions of 2019 will be repeated, where safehaven government bonds as well as higher risk fixed income assets performed well. We expect 2020 to be marked by a continuation of bifurcated risk appetites, in which many
October has been dominated by big political misses. But central banks have once again set the tone for capital markets, pushing them to new highs. October was all about talk of deals and crucial dead-lines. What happened? The deals got
Opportunities beneath the surface The divergence between different credit qualities widened over the third quarter, as investors gave the lower end a wide berth. Dispersion in spreads between higher and lower-quality credit increased over the quarter. Looking solely at the
Putnam – Fixed Income Outlook Global growth has cooled in 2019 as trade conflicts have taken a toll on international manufacturing, investments, and financial markets. Despite multiple headwinds, the likelihood of a recession — while rising — remains relatively low
Q4 2019 | Fixed Income Outlook Global growth has cooled in 2019 as trade conflicts have taken a toll on international manufacturing, investments, and financial markets. Despite multiple headwinds, the likelihood of a recession — while rising — remains relatively
Bad but not so bad news left the market in a limbo: equity markets were more or less flat in the month, treasury yields remained in the 1.5 / 1.8 range and credit spreads also remained within the trading range
