Below is an overview of the key macroeconomic developments we expect to help determine our overall risk budget and inform our bottom-up security selection process in the second half of 2019: 1. Populism—Populism is the enemy of globalization, the pullback
Key points: Performance for inflation-linked bonds has been positive since the start of the year Compared to the current inflation rate, breakevens are trading at a depressed level Beyond oil prices, stabilisation in economic growth outlook could boost inflation
Gathering clouds over global economic growth have turned both the ECB and Fed more dovish. The ECB is preparing for more stimulus to the euro area economy unless the outlook improves, while Fed Chairman Powell hinted at preparedness for an
In April, we wrote about the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) evolving thoughts on its policy making framework as it considers a shift to average inflation targeting. This new framework would allow the Fed to be patient while average inflation increases
In rough seas, the ship needs to stay the course Viewpoints – Why now could be the time to buy the dip in euro corporate bonds Equities – Investors flee to safety as the economic giants battle it out Focus
Our views for the coming months After a strong start of the year, with EM sovereign bonds up 7.6%, EM corporate bonds up 6.8% and EM local bonds up 3.0% in USD terms, we expect carry to be the primary
The FIXED INCOME MONTHLY provides a forward-looking summary of the medium-term views from the Fidelity Fixed Income team. Our investment approach is multi-strategy, with portfolio managers given clear accountability and fiduciary responsibility for all investment decisions in a portfolio. Given
A reveille has been sounded in markets that are now experiencing feverish activity as half a decade of torpor gives way to volatility. Glib explanations for the panicked stampede of the recent sell-off – and subsequent rebound – mask the
Fixed Income After the tumult of Q4 2018, investors deserved an easy quarter, and they got it. The Q4 trends of falling rates and rising economic concerns continued. But risk assets, like stocks and nongovernment fixed income spread products, pulled
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook Bonds have returned to offsetting economic (and equity) risk in investor portfolios and the outlook for dampening inflation played the critical role fueling the change. The lack of inflation pressure enabled the Fed's dovish pivot, fueling
Fixed income markets are enjoying a good run with the Federal Reserve again, suggesting this week that rates are on hold for the foreseeable future. Brexit has been delayed and the economic data continues to look more like “goldilocks” than
We are cautious on U.S. Treasuries in the short term after the recent rally. Yet we still advocate exposure to build portfolio resilience. Scott explains. U.S. Treasury yields dropped sharply in March, breaking out of the tight range they had
Scenario probabilities (%) Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Views are as of March 21, 2019. MARCH MADNESS Anyone in the U.S., or passing through this time of year, knows all too well about the collegiate basketball spectacle known as March
Fixed Income Strategy Bonds are making a comeback. They have become a viable source of income, in our view, amid higher U.S. interest rates, a slowing but growing U.S. economy and a pause in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. We
All about policies? Last year was a difficult one for euro credit, with both the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch (ICE BofAML) investment grade (IG) and high yield (HY) indices posting negative total returns of -1.1 and -3.6%, respectively
Global growth outlook cools amid higher interest rates and market volatility The outlook for global growth in 2019 has slipped because of rising real interest rates, trade tensions, and asset market volatility. The U.S. economy is likely to expand at
The global economy is cooling. Concerns about a full-blown trade war between the US and China have led to a significant deterioration in business confidence and economic activity, particularly in the developed world. It's not all doom and gloom, though.
Recovery, Rebalancing and Rotation Last year was one that many investors in Asian bonds might like to forget. The Bloomberg JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index was 4% weaker, the benchmark J.P. Morgan Asia Credit Index (JACI) was down 0.77% overall, and
A few “wildcards” hold the key to returns in 2019 Policy reversals relative to expectations drove much of the unique pattern of returns in 2018. From trade to the Fed, fiscal policy and global growth, asset returns which surged in
Government bond yields should drift higher in 2019 Only Czech National Bank is to increase rates this year We expect sovereign rating upgrades in several CEE countries
Sector stability driven by moderating economic growth; medium to long-term challenges remain headwinds Growing tax collections and revenues across the municipal market have been supported by the near-decade-long expansion. However , a deceleration of growth is anticipated. The expectation for
Global economy decelerates as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade After enjoying solid and accelerating global growth in 2017 and the first half of 2018, momentum has waned and we expect this trend to continue into 2019. Financial conditions have worsened
Global economy decelerates as headwinds mount and tailwinds fade After enjoying solid and accelerating global growth in 2017 and the first half of 2018, momentum has waned and we expect this trend to continue into 2019. Financial conditions have worsened
Global Investment Outlook The global economy holds the potential to maintain solid momentum in 2019, in our view, underpinned by the strength of US fundamentals and demand. Volatility returned to global financial markets in 2018 as the narrative around synchronized
If you are feeling particularly uncertain about investing heading into 2019, you’re not alone. With major economies entering late-cycle territory, volatility rising, monetary policy tightening and a trade war brewing, you may be wondering how to position your portfolio. This
