Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
It’s now clear that some of the risks inherent in the latter days of a long bull market have come to light as markets have tumbled from record highs, inflation has reached levels not seen since the 1980’s and central
We keep the probabilities of our central and alternative scenario unchanged versus last month but amend the narrative to take into account the evolving geopolitical situation (see Ukraine crisis tree).The new wave of Covid-19 in China and stagnation in the
Alongside the terrible human tragedy that has unfolded since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war has also exaggerated many pre-existing trends. Some include the upward pressure on commodities and further disruptions to global supply gains at a time when inflationary
As bond ETFs turn 20 years old, we believe four trends will propel global AUM to USD 5 trillion by 2030 Twenty years ago, computerised stock trading was reshaping the unseen market plumbing that connects buyers with sellers. Pit-style trading
We need to remain humble and nimble as we assess the changing investment landscape and seek to fulfil our purpose: to create a better future through responsible investing. In addition to precipitating a devastating humanitarian crisis, Russia's invasion of Ukraine
The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains to re-emerge, upside risks to commodity prices
Changes in the underlying market dynamics over the last 1-2 years, Covid-19, inflation, geopolitics, create enormous challenges. Investing in a concentrated, secular growth portfolio might be the best answer for long term focused investors. At the investment seminar Jim Tierney,
Restrictive central banks and high inflation rates are likely to continue to weigh on the economic outlook. Macro outlook – The US Federal Reserve stays its course High inflation rates are increasingly permeating global economies, and sharp increases in commodity
In this CIO spring update, teams from across LGIM share some of our analysis. These include the following key points: To avert the threat of stagflation, central bankers face their biggest dilemma since the 1970s. The US dollar is likely
The second quarter of the year is becoming increasingly painful for tech stocks, recalling memories of the 2000s tech bubble bursting. The repricing of a more aggressive Fed stance has been brutal, real yields rose – the rate on 10-year
– With inflation on the rise, the big question is: ‘Are we about to see a repeat of the 1970s?’ – With developed equity and debt markets at a turning point, with higher inflation and an unfavourable stage in the
Diverging economic outlooks in Europe, US and China, along with persisting geopolitical risks, underscore the need to explore relative value opportunities across asset classes. On duration, we think investors should be flexible but no longer as short as they were
April saw the coordinated bond and equity sell-off continue as the ECB joined the increasingly hawkish tone out of the Fed and added to heightening growth concerns in the month. Indeed, this shifting in the growth-inflation balance is …
The chance to see a positive resolution between Russia and Ukraine has continued to decline. Conversely, ongoing geopolitical tension appear to be the new reality – so market participants will just have to get used to it. Unlike in recent
Q2 Strategy Outlook In the second quarter, there are two overriding themes: the geopolitical situation is more dangerous than many of us can remember, and markets are dealing with inflation not seen in at least 40 years. We believe investors
The first quarter of 2022 was tumultuous for the global economy and financial markets. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine spawned a rally in US Treasuries, but the disruption to metals, agricultural and energy commodity markets only spurred inflation further.
Global economic optimism declined in the first quarter of 2022. War in Europe added to already stiff inflationary headwinds from continued supplychain disruptions. A more hawkish tone from the Fed and other major central banks fuelled concerns of slowing global
The year started with central banks turning hawkish, followed by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both of which destabilised financial markets. Many cyclical assets are now cheaper than when we last wrote and we are adding to equities within our Model
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
The world and markets continuously change, but over the first three months of 2022 there have been shocking shifts in the landscape and asset prices. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caught many off-guard. Beyond the terrible hardships this war has already
Multi-asset market outlook: Commodity prices surged by 36.1% (In US dollars) in the first quarter on the back of widening geopolitical risk premiums and outright supply distortions as the world’s third-largest oil producer, Russia, faced sanctions. As both the level
Our initial 2022 outlook themes generally played out as expected in the first quarter: strong but slower economic growth, persistently hotter inflation, the onset of interest rate hikes and further bouts of elevated market volatility. But two developments were unexpected:
Higher inflation and in some cases, rising inflation expectations, have been a key focus for investors this year, in both emerging and developed markets (DM). This is against a backdrop of large fiscal and monetary stimulus from governments around the
The war in Ukraine adds another supply-side shock and increases economic uncertainty at a time when macro policy is constrained by high inflation and strained public finances. Despite this, most stock markets are trading higher today than at the start
Economics • Russia invasion delays recovery. Uncertainty and higher prices weigh on economy. • Price increases continue. Energy and food prices as drivers. Several months of …
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had a profound impact, but the impact on global growth is uncertain. Direct trade links, particularly beyond Europe are small, but broader global demand may weaken. Elevated energy prices and tighter financial conditions look likely
UK inflation figures were out last week and they do not make for pretty reading: CPI inflation climbed …
Winds of war blow on economic outlook. The first month of the Russia-Ukraine war has driven volatility up across the board, though with some recent signs of stabilisation in equity markets. Europe is the area most exposed to the war
Despite the many unknowns, we developed five main conclusions regarding the cyclical six- to 12-month outlook that we think are most relevant for investors at this stage. We will discuss the longer-run, secular ramifications of the current situation at our
The Russo-Ukrainian war is dominating news headlines as well as financial markets. Any short-term forecast is subject to a high degree of uncertainty, given the risks surrounding the course of the war and the impact of sanctions and countersanctions. Contrastingly,
Financial assets have undergone a significant repricing in the past quarter. Global growth is slowing, inflation is stubbornly high, financial conditions are tightening and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine introduces significant geopolitical instability. In the near term, punitive sanctions on Russia
Market review: Refreshed regulatory uncertainties and lingering geopolitical tensions, coupled with weaker-thanexpected February macro data, provoked the biggest weekly see-off of offshore Chinese equities since the depth of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. Growth names slumped by the most,
Investors’ Outlook: It’s hard to escape the news of a European country and its capital about to be flogged into submission by an aggressive superpower. Kyiv, a beautiful and lively city on a hill above the Dnipro river, has in
The geopolitical crisis in Ukraine creates a stagflationary shock for global economies. Rising commodity prices have the potential to add momentum to already runaway inflation. Higher goods and services costs may hurt consumer confidence and create a drag on economic
For three decades global inflation was on a downward trend. But in recent months inflation has risen sharply. The question which many investors are asking is whether this higher inflation rate is transitory or not? This article summarises our views
2022 will be the “year of reckoning” for DM economies when they will test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic phase and face the challenge of retuning to normality: fiscal and monetary policies will
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
2022 will be the “year of reckoning” for DM economies when they will test the effectiveness of the policies deployed since the peak of the pandemic phase and face the challenge of retuning to normality: fiscal and monetary policies will
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
The most important business risks for the next 12 months and beyond, based on the insight of 2,650 risk management experts from 89 countries and territories. Following a year of unprecedented cyber-attacks, business interruption and supply chain disruption, and natural
In this 2022 macroeconomic outlook, we would like to provide you with a peek behind the curtain of what our investment teams are seeing in the global investment landscape and how that’s impacting our outlook. Our framework is informed by
Overall, we remain constructive on the European asset-backed securities (ABS) market. In the higher and more volatile interest rate environment that we expect in 2022 floating-rate assets should prove resilient. The fundamental backdrop is very strong in consumer ABS and
Lingering COVID-19-related supply-side disruptions, alongside a significant rebound in consumer demand, are producing supply bottlenecks and an inflation rate not seen for decades. We expect 2022 to be a year of gradual absorption of the pandemic shock, with robust but
Economic outlook The economic growth outlook is strong, driven by a resilient consumer, low inventories and infrastructure spending. The rapid rise in Omicron cases, however, may limit the service sector’s recovery in Q1 and push out the economic normalization path.
After a challenging 2020, the high yield market saw rapid fundamental improvement in 2021 and it staged an unprecedented recovery. As we enter 2022 and provided the economic recovery continues, we maintain a reasonably positive outlook on the high yield
In our annual look into the year ahead, our research team gives answers to some of the key questions that real estate investors face. A year ago, the impact of COVID-19 vaccines was at the forefront of everybody’s minds. Our
2022 Global Alternatives Outlook: It’s all a matter of perspective. As we enter 2022, there is a real risk of missing the forest for the trees. Up close, the “trees” in the 2022 outlook are clear. Consumers will keep spending.
