The wisdom of crowds can be powerful. But in times of heightened uncertainty, it can be helpful to understand potential risks. At the moment, markets appear to be crystallising around a hopeful outlook for 2023. Asset prices suggest inflation will
We believe non-agency RMBS bonds will present a very attractive investment opportunity in 2023. Prepayment-sensitive assets (e.g., agency IOs) provide a particularly compelling diversification story due to the countercyclical nature of the sector, in our view. Our current base case
Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate
The full reopening of Japanese borders has been a boon to businesses as the country comes to terms with the hard reality of co-existing with COVID. But with the world grappling with slowing growth and pressing concerns like geopolitical …
We remain relatively constructive on Asia ex‑Japan equities for 2023. The short-term setup for China and North Asia looks attractive: Valuations are at cyclically depressed levels, and the markets are very under-owned by global investors. We are seeing clear signs
Jared Franz, for example, says the Fed will keep rates higher for longer, yet when the economy recovers, it will be stronger than prior rebounds. Meanwhile, Robert Lind argues that European policymakers will likely run looser fiscal policies and tolerate
Following last October’s National Party Congress (NPC), China’s government is getting back to business to help ramp up growth. This means making significant changes to three core issues that have weighed on China’s economy and stock market, which we will
Recessions are painful, no doubt about it. But they are necessary to clean out the excesses of prior growth periods, especially the more or less uninterrupted growth investors have enjoyed over the past decade.
To many investors, this year will feel like a rollercoaster. Several major developments have impacted the world economy, and in response, financial markets have reacted fiercely by repricing asset markets. Especially at times like these, it’s important to take a
The full reopening of Japanese borders has been a boon to businesses as the country comes to terms with the hard reality of co-existing with COVID. But with the world grappling with slowing growth and pressing concerns like geopolitical …
Axel Lomholt, Chief Product Officer, STOXX and DAX Indices, at Qontigo, believes that ETFs have maintained their popularity in 2022 despite the challenging market conditions. “As we have witnessed before, investors prioritise ‘safe products’ during uncertainty. We saw the same
2023 Global equity outlook The months of November and December are all about expectations management in most family homes in the UK, as (occasionally unrealistic) children’s expectations for Christmas presents come into conflict with the economic realities of family budgets.
Stock and bond markets rallied into November on the back of speculation that the Fed might step back from its rapid pace of rate hikes and, more importantly, that it may reach its ‘terminal’ Fed Funds policy rate by early-2023.
Writing an outlook for the year ahead might be viewed as an exercise in damage limitation: don’t stick your neck out and go with the consensus. But Royal London Asset Management has never been a consensus asset manager. Last year, we
Despite all the uncertainty across today’s global capital markets, we are poised to enter 2023 with a more constructive tilt, especially on many parts of Credit. Our basic premise is that it will be easier to navigate inflation’s negative impact
We nemen winst op grondstoffen en energieaandelen De centrale banken drukken een zware stempel op het gemoed van beleggers. Met hun renteverhogingen, in reactie op de hoog opgelopen inflatie, hebben zij dit jaar de aandelen- en obligatiemarkten onder druk gezet.
Going into 2022, it seemed the global economy was finally set to recover from the pandemic after the uneven emergence from lockdowns that characterized 2021. Then another curve ball materialized, in the form of the Russia-Ukraine war that started in
2022 has been a difficult year for investors. Equity and bond markets have experienced double-digit declines amid stubbornly high inflation, slowing economic growth, and the war in Ukraine. Recessions in the United States and euro area look increasingly likely in
Peak inflation appears to have arrived. What’s next? The central bank narrative has shifted from a focus on the pace of tightening to the terminal rate required to bring inflation back down to the targeted level. Throughout 2022, expectations for
The macroeconomic backdrop in 2023 will be a real test for companies, with the impetus for authentic solutions to sustainability challenges being greater than ever. Here, we share our perspective on key themes that will shape global markets in 2023
There’s a new reality taking shape in global markets. Many commentators are focusing on the rotation from growth to value, but I think that view is too simplistic. Some investors may be hoping for a return to normal after central
The U.S. economy: Looking beyond the cycle 2022 turned out to be another very difficult year. Widespread vaccination and less lethal strains of COVID-19 led to lower fatality rates, allowing most pandemic-weary populations around the world to move back toward
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global activity slowed down in late December and should remain moderate in Q1-22. The Omicron impact was limited to a few services, but disruption remained in place in …
We enter 2022 with a lot to consider. The paths of inflation and interest rates, the profound effects of megatrends such as digitization and decarbonization and numerous sub-themes all demand our immediate attention. As private market investors we view this
Challenging economic conditions are setting the stage for an interesting year ahead in the high yield market. As the economy slows and the cycle matures, we believe caution is warranted. However, we expect dislocations to expose intriguing buying opportunities and
Without doubt, 2022 has been a tumultuous year. Markets have wrestled with increased geopolitical risks and a surge in inflation, leading to almost all central banks hiking at the fastest pace in decades. As we look into 2023, the drivers
Following significant monetary tightening in 2022, we expect the cumulative effect of a higher cost of capital to work its way through the economy in 2023, slowing both inflation and growth. Therefore, the overarching theme of 2023 is that restrictive
Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, our outlook acknowledged a hard truth for investors nursing wounds from the steep market downturn: We’re not out of the woods yet. That theme still holds, but the contours of the investment landscape have
In last year’s outlook (Outlook 2022: Pivoting to a new era) we discussed the idea that the world was entering a new macroeconomic regime after three decades in which globalisation and the technology revolution drove rapid growth in the supply
Investment Outlook for 2023: We have become accustomed to uncertain times. Nonetheless, 2022 was an extremely challenging year in financial markets. The investment rationale for the classic 60% stocks / 40% bonds portfolio is that it will deliver solid if
Investment Outlook 2023: If 2022 confronted investors with stiff headwinds, 2023 is likely to be challenging as well. After all, financial conditions are all but certain to remain tight and the fundamental reset of macroeconomics and geopolitics is continuing. Investors
Paving the way for 2023 (and beyond): The infrastructure sector remains resilient despite the market turmoil in 2022. Secular trends such as digitalization and decarbonization will continue to drive the need for new investments. However, macro conditions have worsened significantly.
Monthly Investment Outlook: With the September swoon in risk assets, markets have simply moved to unprice the optimism built up over the summer about the prospects of a pause in Fed tightening …
Central banks have become more balanced in their communication, and the Fed is likely to moderate the pace of its rate hikes as from December. However, we are not close to a pivot as inflation remains too high. Central banks
Totaal nieuwe perspectieven werpen een schaduw op voor 2023. Wat gaat dit betekenen voor de financiële markten? Een van de belangrijkste beleggingslessen van 2022 is dat een goed gespreide portefeuille is opgebouwd uit meer ingrediënten dan alleen aandelen en obligaties.
Investors were buffeted throughout 2022, first by the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and then by the fastest rate-hiking cycle by the US Federal Reserve in a generation. As we had anticipated 2022 would be a volatile year in
US commercial real estate performance is responding to higher interest rates and prospects for a weaker economy in 2023. The impact affects the demand for space as shown in absorption, vacancy rates, and rent growth along with the valuation of
As we look to 2023 the most important question is actually quite straightforward: will inflation start to behave as economic activity slows? If so, central banks will stop raising rates, and recessions, where they occur, will likely be modest. If
The coming year is expected to be one of recession for the advanced economies with the eurozone now expected to join the US and UK in recording a fall in output for 2023 as a whole. The emerging markets have
Asset class returns in the long term We have certainly had plenty of surprises this year. As far as the economy is concerned, few of them have been positive so far. The war in Ukraine and the bottlenecks created by
While recession risk is clearly elevated around the world, they are notoriously hard to predict with any accuracy, in terms of timing, duration or impact. Rather than forecasting exactly when global markets might fall into recession this time, the following
Natixis Investment Managers (Natixis IM) hosted a 2023 Macro Outlook event for the UK media, at which four thought leaders from Natixis IM and its affiliates gathered to discuss the 2023 investment environment and how to generate value for investors
We expect global growth to slow significantly, with several countries across both developed markets (DM) and EM suffering stagnation, while others may face a slowdown at best. Global growth should land at around 2.2% in 2023, down from 3.4% in
Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
Our 2023 return outlook stands in stark contrast to last year’s. Across markets, the unwind of dislocations, notably negative policy rates and large central bank balance sheets, has been abrupt. Few asset classes emerged unscathed. But our LTCMAs deliver a
Quarterly Fixed Income Perspectives from Capital Group’s fixed income team: The combination of persistently high inflation, aggressive central banks and tightening financial conditions is weighing on financial markets and global growth outlooks. While valuations across many sectors look compelling after
Following the summer rally, risk assets once again overprice soft-landing prospects requiring a cautious stance on the part of investors going into year-end. Comments from Fed Chair Powell suggest that economic risks are increasingly skewed towards recession especially in Europe
As we head into 2023 facing one of the most challenging backdrops for investors in recent times, join our Outlook 2023 webinar on Tuesday December 13. Our expert panel will consider how against this backdrop, interesting new investment opportunities may
Central bank watch: The global hiking cycle is in full swing. In our analysis, we expect all central banks, except the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), to remain formidable hawks until at least early
There was no shortage of fear in the global bond markets in the third quarter. Central banks aggressively pushed short rates higher in response to the worst inflation of the last half …
