The re-opening of the world economy continues and economic activity has picked up substantially. However, the strength of the rebound in demand has caught firms by surprise and supply chains are stretched with the consequence that inflation has picked up.
Long-term Outlook: Beyond Borders The global economy continues to recover strongly from the worst of the Covid-19-driven lockdowns. Central banks are now either discussing the potential to reduce the level of support they provide to economies. While governments are starting
Tthings are heating up It’s easy to understand Elon Musk’s fascination with Nikola Tesla, the inventor of the alternating current (AC) technology that serves as the backbone of the company’s electric vehicles. Talking to Collier’s magazine back in 1926, in
August was friendly, which it often hasn’t been in the past. In bonds, little happened overall. Government bonds and investment-grade corporate bonds showed a slightly negative total return, while the high-yield segment, as well as Asian bonds, just made it
Multi-asset market outlook: Equity markets continued their march higher this month. Neither slowing macro momentum nor increasing infections have hindered this rise and the ‘buy the dip’ strategy continues to be a winner. After a brief dip mid-month, equities …
What can we overreact to today? Guess we know the answer to that one. We entered the weekend with investors looking ahead to this week’s Fed meeting and policy decision on Wednesday, plus a full slate …
The obstacles to a full recovery have been identifiable for some time: Viral resurgence, long-term unemployment, supply chain dislocation. We still expect these are temporary challenges, but all are proving more durable than we had hoped. The Delta strain of
Investors have enjoyed stellar performances over the last twelve months. A 60/40 traditional global equity/bond portfolio1 returned around 19% on a one-year horizon, well above even the rosiest expectations of the recovery from the Covid-19-induced slump. The S&P 500 is
Market weekly: Uncertainty over the macroeconomic landscape and the outlook for monetary policy currently combine with an awareness among investors that by many measures, valuations in public markets are on the high side. Listen to the podcast or read the
Equity markets continued their march higher this month. Neither slowing macro momentum nor increasing infections have hindered this rise and the ‘buy the dip’ strategy continues to be a winner. After a brief dip mid-month, equities quickly regained upward momentum,
Welcome to the first issue of the Investment Traffic Lights “Quarterly Edition.” The Quarterly Editions will focus on our strategic twelve-month forecasts that follow our quarterly strategy meetings, which also means that the “Market overview” section will be shorter than
We now know that the world risks a grim future even if the global economy is decarbonised rapidly, according to a landmark report on climate change. The assessment makes clear: inaction is simply not an option for policymakers, companies and
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets continued to climb in August while fixed income investors saw headwinds with rising risk-free yields joining volatile …
As we emerge from the worst of the pandemic, the outlook remains challenging to decipher. Regional differences in COVID-19 vaccine availability and uptake rates are creating a two-speed economic recovery globally. Post-pandemic cynics and optimists will find data to support
Recovery in the economy and real estate investment markets gathered pace in the second quarter, though the new Delta variant of the virus poses a threat. Real estate showed strong returns in the first half of the year, driven by
De Beleggingsnota 2022 van BMO Global Asset Management beschrijft onze visie op de belangrijkste ontwikkelingen voor de komende periode en de impact die deze kunnen hebben op beleggingsportefeuilles. De nota is geschreven door Jitzes Noorman, Delegated CIO en Investment Strategist
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises waning. August should see the US Federal Reserve begin to pivot its policy
Monthly Investment Outlook: Our expectation of a mini-cycle is playing out largely as expected with US economic data no longer surprising to the upside and Euro area upside economic surprises …
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
Quarterly macro and market insights: Financial markets rallied amid The US and Eurozone are leading the rebound in activity stronger-than-expected recoveries in many parts of the global economy and signs that central banks intend to remain more accommodative than had
The economic normalization process is well under way, notwithstanding a flare-up in new coronavirus cases. The return to normality is most evident in regions where the vaccine roll-out has been smooth. Inflation numbers have risen sharply, but we see this
House View Q3 2021: The global economy remains on track for a rapid and broad-based economic recovery from the Covid pandemic. Notwithstanding concerns around new variants of the virus, restrictions are generally being eased, as the vaccine roll-out progresses well,
Multi-asset market outlook: Interest rates seems to have entered a period of consolidation. US rates even moved lower towards the 1.40% level in June. In Europe, most rates kept upwards momentum, but at a much slower pace than in previous
Outlook on Emerging Markets: In the second quarter, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index finished up 5.05% in US dollar terms. From a regional perspective, Latin America had a strong showing, driven by strong performance in Brazil, followed by Europe, the
Mid-Year Outlook 2021 The view of investors on the outlook for US growth and inflation has varied significantly over the course of the year. Following the positive vaccine trial results last November, and particularly with the Democratic Senate victories in
Weekly investment update: Beginning last year, many companies stopped providing forward guidance, that is, their view on whether sales and profits would be higher or lower than the last time they had spoken with analysts and investors. At the time,
This July, we find ourselves looking back on a half a year of upside surprises. As the year started, we expected an better run than we had in 2020, which was a low standard to surpass. Rapid progress distributing vaccines
Economic overview .We are upgrading our forecast for global growth and now expect the world economy to expand by 5.9% this year (previously 5.3%) before slowing to 4.5% in 2022 (previously 4.6%). Our forecasts for inflation are also increased, with
Welcome to our mid-year Outlook, my first as the new chief investment officer at HSBC Asset Management. It is an honour to share with you our latest views on the world’s economies and markets. A huge thanks and best wishes
The recovery continues to gather pace. We’ve raised our growth forecasts and expect the global economy to grow by 6.1% this year and 4.3% in 2022. Both forecasts are well above the precrisis trend of around 3.0%. It’s important to
Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents. Large economies are at different stages of their journey towards peak acceleration, but rising…
A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see
A reawakening of the global economy — boosted by pentup demand and unprecedented government stimulus — has stoked investor fears of higher inflation. But those fears may be exaggerated amid ongoing weakness in the labour market and the slowing pace
The first half of 2021 has been positive for risky assets, supported by the successful vaccine roll out and the reopening of major economies. While the COVID pandemic should remain a health issue for the world population during the coming
Fundamentals have continued to recover alongside vaccination efforts and reduced Covid restrictions, as well as fiscal and monetary accommodation driving increased general economic activity. We expect these factors …
BNP Paribas Asset Management is delighted to invite you to join us for the next session in our virtual event series. On 1 July, Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, presents our mid-year outlook, recapping the
We are already reaching the peak of economic acceleration. What matters going forward is what will be left of this bounce in growth and inflation. Markets are pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: low inflation and higher growth at trend, but we will
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook: BlackRock’s quant bond experts tackle some hard questions around the recent inflation data. What is behind the headlines? Are rising prices just temporary or the start of something bigger? What does greater inflation uncertainty mean for
Forward-looking views for economic growth and inflation are some of the most critical building blocks for our CMAs. We currently compile these for 16 nations. Based on our forecasts, long-term real economic growth in the developed economies over the next
As we approach the mid-point of the year, and now more than a year from the commencement of the global pandemic, it’s time to look to the future with Capital Group senior investment professionals who will offer their views on
In de Investment Outlook van juni geeft Pictet Asset Management haar visie op de wereldwijde economische ontwikkelingen en de gevolgen hiervan op de Asset Allocatie. De belangrijkste boodschap kan kort worden samengevat. Pictet AM verwacht een vertraging van de economische
It’s been great to see the economy reopen, releasing a tremendous surge of energy. But anxieties remain: Will the economy overheat? Are we on a course toward runaway inflation? Will the workforce return to its former size? While these are
News surrounding the pandemic has steadily improved this month, with cases dropping sharply across the US and Europe, and retreating in India. As such, confidence in reopening timetables is increasing, with global growth expectations growing in tandem. More and more
US inflation surprised to the upside in April with the core consumer price index rising 0.9% in April and headline CPI up 0.8%1. This materially changes the maths on inflation. Even if the monthly trend in inflation decelerates to 0.15%,
2020 was a difficult year, for society, businesses and markets alike. The pandemic presented new and unforeseen challenges, creating periods of extreme uncertainty, and correspondingly high volatility in financial markets. As a result, governments and central banks around the world
Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The
Bond Compass: Good news was bad for bond investors in the first quarter, as improving growth prospects on the heels of accelerating vaccinations and fiscal stimulus pushed global yields higher. With administered doses nearing 700 million globally, the immunization process
With record amounts of stimulus still gushing through global markets, and the economic cycle at a relatively early stage, we remain positive on risk assets. Risk assets have notched up strong and even spectacular returns from their pandemic lows, prompting
A year ago, as the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading around the world, we discussed how markets would react and the impact lockdowns would have on the global economy. The forecast was pretty accurate. However, helped by the efficacy of the vaccines and Fed stimulus, the recovery time frame has shortened and has brought with it an optimism which has caused markets to reflect this accelerated recovery.
