Webinar – 2021 Global Market Outlook: Managing to the Other Side Please join us as David Giroux, Justin Thomson, Mark Vaselkiv & Leigh Innes share their actionable insights on the major themes expected to impact markets over the coming months,
Webinar – 2021 Global Credit Outlook with Justin Gerbereux Not since the Global Financial Crisis have corporate bond investors faced such a rollercoaster of selloffs and rallies, not to mention a wave of ‘fallen angels’ and credit defaults. As we
Perspectives Writing a year-ahead outlook is always challenging, but writing it in the middle of a global pandemic takes that definition to the extreme. Nonetheless, as we look to 2021, we find ourselves optimistic again, despite the tough year and
De redactie van OpinioPro maakte het onderstaande verslag van de BNP Paribas AM Outlook 2021. The Great Instability. Dit jaar (2020) maken we niet één maar drie crisissen tegelijkertijd door. Een gezondheids-, economische- en klimaatcrisis. De instabiliteit die dit tot
Investment Outlook 2021 – Legacy of the Lockdowns TAKEAWAYS The global economy faced a crisis of unprecedented magnitude following the coronavirus pandemic lockdowns. A sharp global contraction in early 2020, and possible renewed dip in Europe in the fourth
Investment Outlook 2021 According to our scenario, all countries should see renewed growth in 2021. Economies have seen a gradual upturn since summer 2020, although the resurgence of Covid-19 cases and new local restrictions are hampering the recovery at the
Webinar – A Brave New World Many activities are on hold and the world is changing irreversibly, but at UBP we adapt and keep looking ahead, so we are pleased to invite you to our annual Investment Outlook event, which
"Marked by the most severe recession in modern history, 2020 was an unprecedented year. With the global pandemic continuing, we enter 2021 with a mildly positive outlook for the upcoming recovery, but with the assumption that the path to pre-crisis
Investment Outlook 2021 2020 will likely go down as one of the most remarkable years in history: from an economic perspective, as Covid-19 brought the deepest recession since the 1930s, and from a public health and social viewpoint as well.
The Big Picture – 2021 Outlook 2020 has seen defensive assets outperform cyclicals. We expect the opposite in 2021. Despite short term Covid-related risks, recent vaccine news provides valuable light at the end of the tunnel. Unfortunately, some cyclical assets have
Introduction: Binary outcomes In our recent CIO Autumn Outlook, we highlighted the binary nature of the key event risks heading into the final quarter, all of which still have the scope to move markets significantly. These are the US presidential
Multi-sector asset allocation outlook – Q4 2020 IFI multi-sector asset allocation overview Macro factor summary: We have upgraded our growth expectations for the US and Europe and expect growth momentum to persist in 2021. We expect spare capacity to keep
High dispersion of returns between sectors has continued to offer significant opportunity for investors. We believe a selective approach remains the preferred path during Q4 2020 as uncertainty mounts around the US election, COVID-19 and regional challenges such as Brexit,
Credit Outlook Downgrades and defaults have had a major impact on the asset class Record volumes of credit downgrades and a sharp spike in defaults have reconfigured the US high yield bond market in the wake of the coronavirus. This
CIO autumn update The more things stay the same… Change may be the only constant over the coming months. We believe investors will need to be dynamic in striking a balance between managing risks and seizing opportunities. Since we published
U.S. Economic & Interest Rate Outlook The pandemic has made indoor activities and gatherings risky. During the summer, outdoor adventures and backyard socializing were effective workarounds. But as autumn takes hold, the cooling air will gradually limit those options. This
European Gazette / Summer 2020 As we started Q4 in 2019, we saw the economic cycle coming to an end. We were slightly perturbed that markets wanted to be quite bullish as Q3 numbers showed firms meeting and beating expectations.
#40 Before we show you research-highlights of this week, let’s see what webinars you do not want to miss! On Wednesday 7 October, T. Rowe Price hosts a webinar called “What will a new era bring for Japan” and BNP
Webinar – Long Term Outlook Webinar We are looking forward to welcoming you on Friday 2 October for our next virtual event with Olaf van den Heuvel, CIO Aegon Asset Management NL and Frank Meijer, Head of Alternative Fixed Income.
Macroeconomic Scenarios and Expected Returns 2021 – 2024 In these uncertain and challenging times, it has never been more important for investors to tune out the background noise and commotion of the daily news flow and assess the longer-term opportunities
#39 September is a busy month for webinar-watchers! A lot of subjects are discussed, for example “Modern Monetary Theory” or “Small Caps“. A lot of research was posted last week and in this blogpost we will highlight a few we
Change may be the only constant over the coming months. We believe investors will need to be dynamic in striking a balance between managing risks and seizing opportunities. Since we published our last outlook, many of the dynamics we observed
The value of investments will fluctuate, which will cause prices to fall as well as rise and you may not get back the original amount you invested. Where past …
Global Fixed Income Strategy In November 2018, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it would conduct a broad review of its monetary policy framework. The new framework will likely shape monetary policy in …
Uncommon truths Covid-19 has not gone away, shutdowns are being selectively reintroduced and we suspect the recovery becomes more difficult from here. We maintain a diversified model asset allocation. We have been living with Covid-19 for more than six months
COVID-19 maintains its grip on the global economy …
#34 The holidays are coming to an end and you might have to catch up on research. Hereby a quick overview of the best read research on OpinioPro this last week. A variety of topics is addressed – you can
Investment Outlook The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a tumultuous year for financial markets. Equity markets were crushed in the first quarter with the US stock market suffering the fastest-ever plunge into a bear market ever, losing over a third
In 2021, the IMF expects 8.2% y-o-y GDP growth for China, 6.0% for India, and 2.4% for Japan; COVID-19 is having a severe short-term impact on Asia, but the long-term impact should be small; Asian stocks look cheap compared to
Evaluating the four P's (Pandemic, Policy, Pricing and Portfolios) The first half of this year has been dominated by the spreading coronavirus pandemic and the policy response to it. The latter has been overwhelming; both monetary and fiscal policy are
As the 2020 election season heats up and President Trump’s odds of winning continue to run cold, we believe it is important to understand the investment implications of a potential change in government versus the status quo. Below, we have
As we enter the summer, conflicting forces in major equity markets have led to a period of temporary equilibrium between fear (risk of second wave, low bond yields, high gold prices) and greed (equities rallying as a result of economies
Our normal way of life has ground to a halt because of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. This also holds true for the economy, as governments have shut down economies to contain the spread of COVID-19 and help their health
Is de gezondheidscrisis die we op dit moment doormaken een ‘zwarte, grijze of witte zwaan’ voor de financiële markten? De kleur die we aan deze gebeurtenis toekennen, is afhankelijk van de voorspelbaarheid ervan. Nassim Taleb, die aan de oorsprong ligt
Virus containment is progressing unevenly, advanced in Europe and Asia, but concerning in the U.S. and Latin America. Meanwhile, lockdown easing and economic reopening is accelerating worldwide. With a full global economic recovery priced-in for 2021 and stimulus reflected in
Just months after one of the sharpest drops ever, stock markets globally are nearing cycle highs as most economic data continues to show repair. Fiscal stimulus and income support programs have supported consumer spending over the last several months, as
State Street Global Advisors has identified the key considerations for investors in the coming quarter, and how markets can be navigated using SPDR ETFs. We remain positive on emerging market debt (EMD). While EMD has recently risen,less developed markets have
“During major market downturns, we need to focus on how much will be the same and what’s permanently changed. The analogy we use is to look across the valley and see the other side. It was a much different situation
The first wave of the economic recovery from the pandemic has generally exceeded expectations. Policy interventions in the form of large fiscal packages, asset purchases and government loan schemes have prevented household and business failures. Economies appeared well-positioned to recover
Key points Europe has been enjoying a rare moment of outperformance recently. Still, given the abundance of “cliffs” ahead, Europe would do well with a nice policy “parachute”. For now though, the US is still doing more on the stimulus
Global Macro Outlook Behavioral changes slowing growth over the coming quarters Household sector – Increase in precautionary savings for households, similar to what we saw after the Great Depression in the 1930s – More space between seats at restaurants, cinemas,
Intermediate projections of the economy and capital markets – five-year outlook The equity rally that retraced much of the February through March drop signals that the market is pricing in a relatively quick economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic. However,
In June, investors were confronted with the conflicting impact of an improved outlook and a sharp increase in the number of new coronavirus cases around the world. Optimism prevailed in the end; the …
We believe there is a striking disconnect between market pricing and the real economy, especially with regard to expected company earnings. In the past three months, risk assets have pulled back from the brink of collapse, as policy makers hosed
10 PREDICTIONS FOR 2020: MIDYEAR UPDATE THE RECESSION WAS LESS SEVERE AND THE RECOVERY HAS (SO FAR) BEEN QUICKER THAN MANY EXPECTED. There is no doubt that the economic downturn was incredibly deep and painful. According to the IMF, U.S.
#28 A variety of webinars were hosted this past week and next week a few interesting are coming up. Therefore, before we tell you the best read research of week 28, we will highlight two webinars. Last Thursday, Eurizon AM
Our new macroeconomic scenario is based on theoretical analysis of previous flu epidemics and not on the general equilibrium models used by international institutions. We forecast a less pronounced decline in activity in 2020 but also a weaker rebound in
Economic data is coming in stronger than expected. The better data is to some extent just a reflection of improvement from a low base – but on the other hand, it is confirmation that the worse of the economic contraction
Economic overview We are downgrading our forecast for global growth once more to reflect the weakness seen in the first quarter. Overall we see global activity falling 5.4% this year, a deeper contraction than our previous forecast of -2.9% and
H2 Outlook As we emerge from the Covid-19 shock, we expect market developments to eventually become more complex. In the next few weeks, the easy part of a post Covid-19 recovery will be over and by then credit and equity
