We believe that most central banks (including the Fed, ECB, SNB, though not the Bank of England) have reached peak policy rates. As the economic data is still quite resilient in the United States and inflation is proving to be
Een verminderd recessierisico, een naderende piek in de rente en beter dan verwachte bedrijfswinsten maken ons minder pessimistisch over aandelen.
A funny thing has happened in the U.S. labor market since the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment (V/U) started to fall early this year: The pace of monthly wage growth has accelerated. Typically, a declining V/U—a sign of labor
Economic activities remain relatively robust, although there is meaningful divergence between service sectors, which continue to expand, and manufacturing sectors, which are growing weaker. We still believe that the full impact of higher rates is yet to be felt. Tighter
“Macro Monthly” by UBS delves deep into the evolving financial landscape, highlighting the growing anticipation of a soft landing in the markets. The narrative delves into significant challenges facing their optimistic outlook, including escalated valuations, a lag in economic activity
In J. Safra Sarasin's "Cross asset weekly", the current sentiment surrounding the US economy's robust growth and dwindling inflation is assessed. Despite the burgeoning confidence among investors that the US economy will experience a soft landing, the firm expresses reservations.
In "Second Half 2023 Outlook ChiefInvestment Office 2 0 2 3," the author presents an analytical overview of the U.S. economy for the second half of 2023. The central theme revolves around the U.S. economic performance, inflation trends, and the consequent
With the global economy managing to remain robust despite potential setbacks like the US banking crisis, there's a significant focus on the impact of artificial intelligence and the prospect of a "soft landing" economic scenario. However, tightening credit and restrictive
In their latest report, “Monthly Investment Outlook,” UBP provides a comprehensive analysis of the current investment climate. The analysis observes that global equities and bonds were stable in April, as markets adjusted to the liquidity influx subsequent to the US
In BlackRock's "2023 midyear outlook", the spotlight shines brightly on Latin America as a significant player in the changing macroeconomic regime. As emerging market (EM) central banks lean towards rate reductions, their developed market (DM) counterparts appear to maintain stringent
Authored by Allianz, the "Global Macro & Corporate Outlook 2023-24" paints a picture of the near-term global economic landscape. Major economies, despite early recessions this year, have shown resilience largely thanks to their labor markets. However, these supportive factors have
In the report titled 'Long-term perspective on markets and economies', Capital Group elucidates on the present state of the global economy and financial markets. Transitioning from a binary market to a more balanced one, investors can no longer exclusively concentrate
In the "TACTICAL ASSET ALLOCATION OUTLOOK" by Columbia Threadneedle, there's a pointed emphasis on the nuanced landscape of the equity market. While the signs remain varied, the inclination is toward a neutral allocation stance. Notably, the emerging markets present a
In "Investment Outlook" by Loomis, the pathway to a downturn in the credit cycle is analyzed, emphasizing its slow progression rather than a rapid shift. Presently, there isn't noticeable excessive leverage in any significant economic sector. The central focus, however,
In "CIO Update" penned by Sarasin, a striking shift in the financial market's sentiment during the first half of the year is evident. From initial apprehensions of a looming recession at the year's outset, the mood has tilted toward optimism.
In UBP's "Monthly Investing Outlook", it's projected that economic activity in H2-23 will likely remain subdued, with growth in developed nations particularly fragile. China, on the other hand, is expected to find some stability after implementing renewed supports. Interestingly, the
In "Too good to be true? Equity market views from BlackRock Systematic", BlackRock examines the surprising strength of equity returns in the first half of 2023. Despite looming concerns like banking stress, the threat of a recession, and an unexpectedly
In "Guide to the Markets," JP Morgan provides an insightful visual exploration of global macroeconomic trends and data. These charts offer a snapshot of the world's economic landscape, covering a wide array of factors from GDP growth rates and inflation
In "The landing seems to be a success… but the good news is widely anticipated", Candriam assesses the forthcoming economic landscape. A recession is deemed avoidable across both sides of the Atlantic, though growth is anticipated to be sluggish. Central
In "Geopolitical shifts and investment implications", Amundi outlines the transformative geopolitical dynamics that the world is witnessing. US-China tensions and the Russia-Ukraine war are key drivers, pushing the global balance towards a steady decline in relations between the US, China,
In "Applied philosophy: The strange case of US factor returns", Ínvesco examines the seemingly peculiar equity factor returns in the United States post the market trough of October 2022. The author struggles to find historical precedents for this pattern in
As the global macroeconomic landscape undergoes a supply-side-driven regime change, the main theme of the author's article titled "Still Keeping It Simple" is the advocacy for a simple investment approach in these uncertain times. The author strongly believes that investors
In the initial years of the 2020s, the world experienced significant disruptions in economic, financial, and geopolitical realms. PIMCO recognizes that the full impact of these disruptions is yet to be felt. At their recent Secular Forum, they focused on
In "Monthly Investment Outlook: The Global Liquidity Cycle Looks Set To Turn", the author presents a detailed analysis of the current global financial situation. The piece observes that global equities and bonds remained steady in April, amidst worldwide liquidity injections
Since the beginning of the year, Columbia Threadneedle has updated its forecasts for global growth and inflation. With recent shifts in market prices, they now estimate most equity market valuations to be near fair value, barring U.S. small-cap equities, which
As outlined by BlackRock, we have entered a new macroeconomic regime that, while different, is rife with investment opportunities. Ongoing supply constraints are pushing major central banks to maintain stringent policies, in turn instigating heightened macroeconomic and market volatility. Despite
As key event risks like bank turmoil and the US debt ceiling issue have faded, focus returns to cyclical dynamics according to AXA Investment Managers. Despite mixed economic signals and a revision of Eurozone's economic history to a mild recession,
JP Morgan provides a detailed analysis of the global economy and the investment landscape in the report "2023 Mid-Year Investment Outlook". The document highlights a likely deceleration in the U.S. economy coupled with decreased inflation through late 2023 and 2024.
The first few years of the 2020s were marked by extensive global disruptions with deep economic, financial, and geopolitical implications. Pimco's Secular Forum explores these transient cyclical dynamics that are likely to evolve into enduring secular changes. The global economy
Capital Group's "Quarterly Macro and Market Insights" offers a comprehensive perspective on the escalating risk of recession due to emerging signs of economic slowdown. The report explores the implications of this development on US interest rates, advocating for a relative
The guide "Investor’s guide to the debt ceiling" by BlackRock underscores potential market volatility in light of the ongoing debates among Congressional leaders regarding raising the US debt ceiling. Despite the looming uncertainty, BlackRock maintains confidence in Congress's ability to
PGIM Quantitative Solutions Q2 2023 Outlook The first section of the text provides an overview of the global economic landscape as of Q2 2023. The global economy started 2023 on a surprisingly positive note, with the US, Euro area, and
Het centrale thema van de tekst gaat over de strategie van Pictet Asset Management met betrekking tot activa-allocatie te midden van aanhoudende macro-economische onzekerheid. Het bedrijf heeft besloten om zijn positie in obligaties te verhogen tot overwogen en een negatieve
In the midst of market turbulence, the banking sector faces challenges reminiscent of the Global Financial Crisis and the dotcom bubble. The author of "CIO lens" by Schroders highlights the importance of learning from past experiences while also considering the
In the text "Beyond high inflation: Multi Asset’s Long-Term Return Expectations," Ballie Gifford emphasizes that all investment strategies come with potential for profit and loss, and past performance cannot guarantee future returns. The main theme revolves around the anticipation that
In the text "Global Strategy 2Q 2023" by Erste Group, the main theme is the likelihood of an end to the interest rate hike cycle due to recent financial turbulence involving SVB and Credit Suisse. The author discusses the impact
In the Monthly Investment Outlook, UBP highlights the stability of global equities and the rally in bonds in March, despite turmoil in the US and European banking systems. Over the past four decades, such financial shocks have been common during
In Investors’ Outlook: Easing the sails, author Dan Scott of Vontobel Multi Asset examines the recent market developments and the impact of slowing inflation in the US. He highlights that the US Federal Reserve’s actions on interest rates and the
In the research paper titled "Spring Economic Outlook," the author from Allianz discusses the impact of negative confidence effects from the near-death experience in the US banking sector and the unresolved energy situation in Europe on the global economy. The
The Capital Group's article, "European market outlook Clouds on the horizon," reflects on the impacts of a decade of ultra-loose monetary policy, which led to an aggressive tightening of financial conditions. As a result, the risk of recession has increased,
The sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank raised concerns about the investment outlook, highlighting three major problems. Firstly, the banks had a narrow depositor base with a large percentage of uninsured deposits, which was concentrated in troubled
The full reopening of Japanese borders has been a boon to businesses as the country comes to terms with the hard reality of co-existing with COVID. But with the world grappling with slowing growth and pressing concerns like geopolitical …
Banking and capital markets (B&CM) mergers and acquisitions (M&A) have been on a roller-coaster ride for several years. Transaction volumes and values climbed steadily prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, only to hurtle downward in 2020. Activity shot up the following
We’ve finally left annus horribilis 2022 behind us—and while there are still some gloomy pockets in the economy, some market areas started the new year off on a strong note amid positive developments that give reason for hope.
The wisdom of crowds can be powerful. But in times of heightened uncertainty, it can be helpful to understand potential risks. At the moment, markets appear to be crystallising around a hopeful outlook for 2023. Asset prices suggest inflation will
Recessions are painful, no doubt about it. But they are necessary to clean out the excesses of prior growth periods, especially the more or less uninterrupted growth investors have enjoyed over the past decade.
State of the Markets H1 2023 We continue to believe in the innovation economy in the face of adversity. Challenging market conditions are periods for building, particularly for startups. Today, founders have time to slow down, focus on product market
Natixis Investment Managers Solutions | Global Market Strategy: Given the resiliency shown by economic indicators, we rule out the risk for a severe recession both in the US and Europe. The outlook for a recession scenario has weakened thanks to
Market movers: • German stagnation—rising insolvencies? German business insolvencies are rebounding albeit from a low level. • US real estate—trouble (still) ahead? Some housing market indicators have …
Investors were buffeted throughout 2022, first by the shock of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and then by the fastest rate-hiking cycle by the US Federal Reserve in a generation. As we had anticipated 2022 would be a volatile year in
