Mid-Year Outlook 2021 The view of investors on the outlook for US growth and inflation has varied significantly over the course of the year. Following the positive vaccine trial results last November, and particularly with the Democratic Senate victories in
Monthly Investment Outlook: Global equity markets closed at the half year point higher, while global bonds fell as the Federal Reserve began to signal a pivot change – by potentially slowing the pace of its bond buying, i.e. ‘tapering’ –
Weekly investment update: Beginning last year, many companies stopped providing forward guidance, that is, their view on whether sales and profits would be higher or lower than the last time they had spoken with analysts and investors. At the time,
This July, we find ourselves looking back on a half a year of upside surprises. As the year started, we expected an better run than we had in 2020, which was a low standard to surpass. Rapid progress distributing vaccines
Economic overview .We are upgrading our forecast for global growth and now expect the world economy to expand by 5.9% this year (previously 5.3%) before slowing to 4.5% in 2022 (previously 4.6%). Our forecasts for inflation are also increased, with
Welcome to our mid-year Outlook, my first as the new chief investment officer at HSBC Asset Management. It is an honour to share with you our latest views on the world’s economies and markets. A huge thanks and best wishes
The recovery continues to gather pace. We’ve raised our growth forecasts and expect the global economy to grow by 6.1% this year and 4.3% in 2022. Both forecasts are well above the precrisis trend of around 3.0%. It’s important to
Waters appear calm, but there are strong undercurrents. Large economies are at different stages of their journey towards peak acceleration, but rising…
A buoyant economic recovery, record stock markets and calm bond markets. Things have been going all too well and the next surprises are unlikely to be positive. Global economic growth is slightly up, so are equity price targets, though, we see
A reawakening of the global economy — boosted by pentup demand and unprecedented government stimulus — has stoked investor fears of higher inflation. But those fears may be exaggerated amid ongoing weakness in the labour market and the slowing pace
The first half of 2021 has been positive for risky assets, supported by the successful vaccine roll out and the reopening of major economies. While the COVID pandemic should remain a health issue for the world population during the coming
Fundamentals have continued to recover alongside vaccination efforts and reduced Covid restrictions, as well as fiscal and monetary accommodation driving increased general economic activity. We expect these factors …
BNP Paribas Asset Management is delighted to invite you to join us for the next session in our virtual event series. On 1 July, Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist at BNP Paribas Asset Management, presents our mid-year outlook, recapping the
We are already reaching the peak of economic acceleration. What matters going forward is what will be left of this bounce in growth and inflation. Markets are pricing in a Goldilocks scenario: low inflation and higher growth at trend, but we will
Systematic Fixed Income Outlook: BlackRock’s quant bond experts tackle some hard questions around the recent inflation data. What is behind the headlines? Are rising prices just temporary or the start of something bigger? What does greater inflation uncertainty mean for
Forward-looking views for economic growth and inflation are some of the most critical building blocks for our CMAs. We currently compile these for 16 nations. Based on our forecasts, long-term real economic growth in the developed economies over the next
As we approach the mid-point of the year, and now more than a year from the commencement of the global pandemic, it’s time to look to the future with Capital Group senior investment professionals who will offer their views on
– The recovery phase of the US economic cycle is increasingly mature and looks set transition to its next phase in the coming months, a ‘mini-cycle’, similar to the long expansions of the 1990s and in the post-Global Financial Crisis
In de Investment Outlook van juni geeft Pictet Asset Management haar visie op de wereldwijde economische ontwikkelingen en de gevolgen hiervan op de Asset Allocatie. De belangrijkste boodschap kan kort worden samengevat. Pictet AM verwacht een vertraging van de economische
It’s been great to see the economy reopen, releasing a tremendous surge of energy. But anxieties remain: Will the economy overheat? Are we on a course toward runaway inflation? Will the workforce return to its former size? While these are
News surrounding the pandemic has steadily improved this month, with cases dropping sharply across the US and Europe, and retreating in India. As such, confidence in reopening timetables is increasing, with global growth expectations growing in tandem. More and more
US inflation surprised to the upside in April with the core consumer price index rising 0.9% in April and headline CPI up 0.8%1. This materially changes the maths on inflation. Even if the monthly trend in inflation decelerates to 0.15%,
2020 was a difficult year, for society, businesses and markets alike. The pandemic presented new and unforeseen challenges, creating periods of extreme uncertainty, and correspondingly high volatility in financial markets. As a result, governments and central banks around the world
Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The
Bond Compass: Good news was bad for bond investors in the first quarter, as improving growth prospects on the heels of accelerating vaccinations and fiscal stimulus pushed global yields higher. With administered doses nearing 700 million globally, the immunization process
With record amounts of stimulus still gushing through global markets, and the economic cycle at a relatively early stage, we remain positive on risk assets. Risk assets have notched up strong and even spectacular returns from their pandemic lows, prompting
A year ago, as the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading around the world, we discussed how markets would react and the impact lockdowns would have on the global economy. The forecast was pretty accurate. However, helped by the efficacy of the vaccines and Fed stimulus, the recovery time frame has shortened and has brought with it an optimism which has caused markets to reflect this accelerated recovery.
Our outlook draws on our wide range of independent investment managers to deliver asset class insights. Each manager approaches the economic environment with a different lens and offers views to help inform your decision making. As we look forward to
This time really is different. Every recession is subtly different from the last. However, the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, at least in modern times. A sudden stop in economic activity, imposed by governments
Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
While fixed income markets mainly remained under pressure, they were not the worst performing asset class in March. That honor went to commodities. After leading the way over the past months, commodities came under pressure in March. The decline was broad based. Crude oil lost …
Just when we thought we could stop hunkering down in our interconnected yet improvised offices (sometimes carved out from a children’s bedroom), a third pandemic wave has come upon us. Moreover, inflation worries have suddenly emerged.
Rembrandt’s masterpiece “The Night Watch” is the inspiration for a multidisciplinary research process at Capital Group. Everyone in the painting is looking in a different direction and it is this gathering of multiple perspectives that summarises our approach to gaining a deeper understanding of market disruptions, assessing the risks and evaluating the opportunities that arise during times of extreme crisis.
Bond investors face a tougher environment: (expected) growth is pushing interest rates up from record lows, foreshadowing the eventual end of the ‘lower-for-longer’ era. The answer? Adopt an active approach with neither a strategic exposure to interest rate risk, nor the constraints of a benchmark.
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
It’s been a terrible month for most fixed income assets. Actually, it’s been a terrible month for most assets that are considered to be ‘safe’. In February, the riskier the asset, the better the performance. Commodities and oil in particular led the way. The reflation story continued to be the dominant theme, but the twist this month was …
In the markets, the biggest opportunities and the biggest risks arise when you have a confluence of unsustainable flows of money and credit forming prices that discount unlikely future economic scenarios. Today, we see a number of such …
Asia’s relatively effective pandemic control in 2020 has enabled a gradual normalisation of domestic demand. Asia remains the engine of global growth …
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on China’s gold market, leading to a 27% y-o-y drop in the nation’s gold demand in 2020. 1 One consequence of such weakness was the widest …
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
2020 saw unprecedented change around the globe – economically, socially and politically. The most significant impacts resulted from the global coronavirus pandemic which has potentially changed many aspects of life for ever. The investment landscape has been changing too …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
Equity investors began 2021 focused on the expected level of earnings at the end of the year rather than on the inevitable challenges in generating them. With economies globally …
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …
Columbia Threadneedle Investments provides readers with an in-depth discussion of fixed income assets. One important takeaway is the Biden presidency causing rising inflation expectations.
Webinar – Taking temperature for 2021 Invesment solutions for challenging climate change February 10, 2021 – 4:00 p.m. (GMT) | 5:00 p.m. (CET) | 11:00 a.m. (EST) Despite the pandemic, climate change remains on top of the investors’ agenda. The
Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities Macro outlook | February 2021 Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1).
OpinioPro readers found the BNP Paribas AM article the most interesting this week. The article discusses how the switch of many economies ‘’from a depletive to a sustainable model created a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water’’. The three main water-related investing …
The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by compounding existing risks and creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. Looking ahead, we believe that investors will likely see the low interest rate environment as an opportunity to …
