Equity Outlook: The simple reflation trades – value versus growth, cyclicals versus defensives, small caps versus large caps – that had performed well following the news of positive vaccine trial results last November reversed in April (see Exhibit 1). The
Bond Compass: Good news was bad for bond investors in the first quarter, as improving growth prospects on the heels of accelerating vaccinations and fiscal stimulus pushed global yields higher. With administered doses nearing 700 million globally, the immunization process
With record amounts of stimulus still gushing through global markets, and the economic cycle at a relatively early stage, we remain positive on risk assets. Risk assets have notched up strong and even spectacular returns from their pandemic lows, prompting
A year ago, as the COVID-19 pandemic was spreading around the world, we discussed how markets would react and the impact lockdowns would have on the global economy. The forecast was pretty accurate. However, helped by the efficacy of the vaccines and Fed stimulus, the recovery time frame has shortened and has brought with it an optimism which has caused markets to reflect this accelerated recovery.
Our outlook draws on our wide range of independent investment managers to deliver asset class insights. Each manager approaches the economic environment with a different lens and offers views to help inform your decision making. As we look forward to
This time really is different. Every recession is subtly different from the last. However, the events that led to the great recession of 2020 were unique, at least in modern times. A sudden stop in economic activity, imposed by governments
Fixed Income Outlook–2Q2 The US Federal Reserve’s new average inflation targeting framework means that the central bank will not raise policy rates until realised inflation has risen sustainably to above its 2% target. That is, it does not intend to
Monthly Investment Outlook ■ In March, rising yields caused a dramatic rotation in equity markets, leading to modest gains in stock market indices, while exposing global bond investors to losses. ■ Economic activity in the world’s largest economy continued to
While fixed income markets mainly remained under pressure, they were not the worst performing asset class in March. That honor went to commodities. After leading the way over the past months, commodities came under pressure in March. The decline was broad based. Crude oil lost …
Just when we thought we could stop hunkering down in our interconnected yet improvised offices (sometimes carved out from a children’s bedroom), a third pandemic wave has come upon us. Moreover, inflation worries have suddenly emerged.
Rembrandt’s masterpiece “The Night Watch” is the inspiration for a multidisciplinary research process at Capital Group. Everyone in the painting is looking in a different direction and it is this gathering of multiple perspectives that summarises our approach to gaining a deeper understanding of market disruptions, assessing the risks and evaluating the opportunities that arise during times of extreme crisis.
Bond investors face a tougher environment: (expected) growth is pushing interest rates up from record lows, foreshadowing the eventual end of the ‘lower-for-longer’ era. The answer? Adopt an active approach with neither a strategic exposure to interest rate risk, nor the constraints of a benchmark.
February saw US fiscal authorities take the baton from the Federal Reserve and surprise on the upside in terms of proposed spending programmes in the months ahead. This served as a tailwind for global equities and a headwind for …
It’s been a terrible month for most fixed income assets. Actually, it’s been a terrible month for most assets that are considered to be ‘safe’. In February, the riskier the asset, the better the performance. Commodities and oil in particular led the way. The reflation story continued to be the dominant theme, but the twist this month was …
In the markets, the biggest opportunities and the biggest risks arise when you have a confluence of unsustainable flows of money and credit forming prices that discount unlikely future economic scenarios. Today, we see a number of such …
Asia’s relatively effective pandemic control in 2020 has enabled a gradual normalisation of domestic demand. Asia remains the engine of global growth …
The COVID-19 pandemic has had a significant impact on China’s gold market, leading to a 27% y-o-y drop in the nation’s gold demand in 2020. 1 One consequence of such weakness was the widest …
Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1). Is the Georgia vote and Democrat win in the Senate the catalyst that reverses this? US investors did not think Senate control would switch to the Democrats, yet former president Donald Trump alienated centrist votes with allegations of stolen …
2020 saw unprecedented change around the globe – economically, socially and politically. The most significant impacts resulted from the global coronavirus pandemic which has potentially changed many aspects of life for ever. The investment landscape has been changing too …
2021 began with renewed bouts of volatility with a tug of war emerging between concerns over slow vaccine rollouts especially on the continent and delays in US fiscal support against positive earnings trends.
Equity investors began 2021 focused on the expected level of earnings at the end of the year rather than on the inevitable challenges in generating them. With economies globally …
In the US, reflation on the back of fiscal stimulus and the exit from lockdowns should lead to modestly higher inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. A renewed ‘taper tantrum’ looks unlikely as excess capacity and high unemployment rates will prevent …
Columbia Threadneedle Investments provides readers with an in-depth discussion of fixed income assets. One important takeaway is the Biden presidency causing rising inflation expectations.
Webinar – Taking temperature for 2021 Invesment solutions for challenging climate change February 10, 2021 – 4:00 p.m. (GMT) | 5:00 p.m. (CET) | 11:00 a.m. (EST) Despite the pandemic, climate change remains on top of the investors’ agenda. The
Why we think it’s too early to be cautious on equities Macro outlook | February 2021 Value stocks outperformed momentum by almost 30% in November, but then gave back a third of this by the beginning of 2021 (Figure 1).
OpinioPro readers found the BNP Paribas AM article the most interesting this week. The article discusses how the switch of many economies ‘’from a depletive to a sustainable model created a wide range of investment opportunities in many areas including water’’. The three main water-related investing …
The COVID-19 pandemic raised uncertainty by compounding existing risks and creating new ones. But by the end of last year, investors were optimistic that the worst was over. Looking ahead, we believe that investors will likely see the low interest rate environment as an opportunity to …
Silver Outlook To Q4 2021: A Year For The Hybrid Metal After a slow start, silver outpaced gold and most industrial metals in 2020. Initially riding gold’s defensive coattails and then getting a tailwind from its industrial traits, silver was
Conditions changed irrevocably in 2020. Governments and businesses piled up debt, interest rates fell and central banks became more lenient regarding inflation. A new US president may end a populist chapter in the nation’s history. The global economy, political landscape
To what extent is the world really changing and what are the long-term investment implications? Responding to the transformative events and trends of the COVID-19 crisis, we sought the views of three …
A lot of OpinioPro readers gave the financial long-term outlook of Capital Group a good look. The key takeways from what Capital Group is expecting from the future is that economic growth is making a comeback whilst the current low interest rates can help investors move to the equity markets instead of other asset classes. What definitely makes this article worth reading is the very informative COVID winners and losers section it provides.
Webinar – Inside Real Estate Annual Strategy Outlook 2021 What can we expect from the global economy in 2021? And how will that affect commercial real estate? Join us for a webcast featuring Indraneel Karlekar, Ph.D., Senior Managing Director, Global
Webinar – Live discussion: Diversified Income strategy update and outlook After a tumultuous 2020, we look forward the opportunities and threats facing income investors in 2021. We would like to invite you to join a live discussion with Vincent McEntegart
Key takeaways: 1) We anticipate that the global growth recovery will remain intact as vaccine distribution will allow economies to gradually normalise, 2) Monetary and fiscal policy shall remain accommodative, 3) We expect this to be a positive environment for credit, whilst interest rate markets have room to breathe higher
Markets are entering the new year optimistic about the successful development of vaccines to combat the spread of COVID-19, seeing the news as a light at the end of the dark tunnel that was 2020. The extreme enthusiasm, however, has driven many markets to record highs, extending valuations and creating a rotation toward cheaper stocks in more cyclically …
After a rollercoaster 2020 for European high yield markets, 2021 looks set to be more stable. Fears of high levels of corporate defaults have proved unjustified, allowing high yield to rebound in 2020 and setting the scene for the coming year. While the second Covid-19 wave, and the new variant, are weighing on recovery, once vaccinations bring the virus under control a degree of normality …
2021 wereldeconomie: de meest spraakmakende personen Traditioneel wordt aan het einde van ieder kalenderjaar de balans opgemaakt en vliegen de ranglijsten je om de oren. Wij pakken het anders aan: welke personen moet u in 2021 in de gaten houden,
Sector Compass: Light Sector Compass Reopening, Recovery and Rotation The sector rotation seen in flows and performance in the last two months of 2020 could continue given many investors still hold cash and are underweight the more risky areas. While
In September 2020 we published our long-term outlook (link). At that time we anticipated that the economic recovery in the eurozone would start in the second half of 2020 and that the rebound would continue into 2021. Unfortunately, after a strong economic recovery in the third quarter, many eurozone countries imposed new lockdown …
Economic and asset allocation views January 2021 Global market perspective News that a Covid-19 vaccine is on its way has provided a boost to the outlook for the world economy, and spurred a significant rally in risk assets. Over the
Euro high yield: the opportunity today Credit Outlook The upheavals of 2020 have brought structural changes in the euro high yield (EHY) bond market. So, what has changed, what still applies, and what role can this sector play in European
Quarterly Outlook January 2021 The start of 2021 and the promise of broad vaccine distribution brings a sigh of relief to many. Yet, the long-term investment ramifications of the pandemic will continue to unfold over the coming years as governments
Municipal bond outlook: Silver lining to COVID storm clouds Commuter trains with seats to spare at rush hour. Vacant dorm rooms. And, of course, hospital wards, stretched to capacity. The effects of COVID-19 on all our lives have been plain
2021 Global Market Outlook – Managing to the Other Side Four themes to follow: An Uneven Road to Recovery Style Dispersion Amid Disruption Creativity in a Low Yield Era Politics and the Pandemic
Brightening Outlook Propels Credit Market Rally Fixed Income Asset Allocation Insights Credit markets continued to rally into December, and valuations now fairly reflect optimism that we are firmly on the path toward economic and earnings recovery. While these conditions would
UBP Frontier Debt 2020 review and 2021 outlook 2020 confirmed the volatility of Frontier Debt, but also its resilience and mean reverting nature Belief in the longer-term merits of the asset class gave UBP the confidence to launch our fund,
Stronger headwinds in the short run, but the medium-term outlook improves on vaccine rollout House View The global economy rebounded strongly in the third quarter, after a very sharp contraction in the first half of the year. Global economies remain
Het verschil tussen de financiële markten en de reële economie leek nog nooit zo groot als in 2020. Men hoopt weliswaar dat de tweede golf van COVID-19 in Europa, het zwaarst getroffen continent, zal verzwakken, maar de epidemie blijft zich
Webinar – 30 minutes with Denis Girault, Head UBP Emerging Markets Debt: Outlook 2021 2021 offers many opportunities in Emerging Markets Debt investing. Stars are aligning on the economic front, on the corporate financials, on the market technicals and on
Most investors have grasped that the extraordinarily loose monetary policies pursued by the leading central banks in 2020 have provided greater support than ever for financial asset prices. So now that the worldwide Covid vaccination campaign has stirred hopes of
