Substantial and profound changes are rapidly reshaping the world as we know it, with significant implications for investors. This vibrant reimaging can be encapsulated in a single word: metamorphosis. Investors cannot just think about the here and now; they must
A challenging year ahead: According to our 2022 Investment Outlook, next year will feature growth deceleration, persistent inflation pressure and asynchronised central bank action. 2022 will also be a pivotal year for the transition to carbon neutrality and the development
The medium-term outlook for the current cycle remains healthy and supportive for equity markets. However, there are several near-term risks. Short-term growth momentum is slowing, key central banks are moving towards faster policy normalisation, and there is another wave of
As we look to 2022, we see REITs well positioned to serve an inflation hedging role while benefiting from a continued recovery in operating fundamentals and above trend economic growth. We see earnings growth as the primary driver of share
Outlook 2022: As we head into a new year, it’s clear in hindsight that the market downturn of 2020 was short-lived and entirely related to the COVID-19 outbreak. In my view, that means the powerful upswing in equity prices since
2022 Global Market Outlook: Despite headwinds from the pandemic, the global economic recovery still appears on track – but inflation risks have risen. In 2022, investors will need to watch what fiscal and monetary policymakers do to try to stem price pressures while
One year after the discovery of anti-Covid vaccines, financial markets will soon have left (or slowly leaving) the pandemic behind. The economy has not. This is demonstrated by the numerous disruptions among supply chains, on labour markets or on commodity
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
If you have read the Absolute Return Letter for years, you will be aware that the January letter always stands out from the others. In January, we focus on issues we think you should worry most about as we enter
Multi Asset Quarterly: The economic growth outlook is strong, driven by a resilient consumer, low inventories and infrastructure spending. The rapid rise in Omicron cases, however, may limit the service sector’s recovery in Q1 and push out the economic normalization
Growth is slowing and inflation is climbing steadily due to the serious energy shock in late 2021. Central banks are starting to withdraw monetary stimulus and talking about rate hikes in the near future. The spectre of stagflation is re-emerging,
Higher inflation and in some cases, rising inflation expectations, have been a key focus for investors this year, in both emerging and developed markets (DM). This is against a backdrop of large fiscal and monetary stimulus from governments around the
We made no changes to the portfolio in December. We continue to be procyclically positioned, mainly through carrying a higher weight in equities. Our preference within equities is for developed markets, for which Europe is our favorite region. Within fixed
China’s roar has changed entering the year of the tiger. China will now emphasize quality over speed, not GDP growth at all costs. In the internet sector, blindly adding new users will take a backseat to innovation and quality of
Strongly rising numbers of new COVID-19 infections, higher energy prices, and persistent bottlenecks in supply chains are dampening the short-term growth outlook. Beyond that horizon, the economic recovery should continue. The central banks will continue to reduce their purchase programmes.
In this paper, we will discuss the outlook for emerging market (EM) fixed income in 2022 and the key themes investors are likely to focus on at the beginning of this year. A waning global growth momentum, rising inflation and
De trends van 2021 worden voortgezet. Het economische en marktherstel als gevolg van de opheffing van de lockdownmaatregelen gaan onverminderd door, en wel in de laatste fasen. Hoewel obligaties het moeilijk zullen hebben bij een stijging van de rente, zouden
High inflation could persist in 2022, but we’re not returning to the 1970s Inflation is like chewing gum. It’s sticky and flexible, and you definitely don’t want to step in it. For the past 30 years, investors in developed markets
The Wildcard. The key factor to variability around real growth at 4% will be the ultimate path of Covid-19. This was prevalent during the ’21 recovery that witnessed a large hiccup when the Delta variant emerged. This is also what
We enter 2022 with a lot to consider. The paths of inflation and interest rates, the profound effects of megatrends such as digitization and decarbonization and numerous sub-themes all demand our immediate attention. As private market investors we view this
Living with inflation – We expect inflation to be persistent and settle above pre-Covid levels. Central banks should kick off policy rate hikes but remain more tolerant of price pressures, keeping real interest rates historically low and supportive of risk
In 2022 we expect the market narrative to transition to the traditional expansionary phase of the business cycle. Here’s what it means for fixed income investors. Monetary headwinds Throughout 2021 the invisible hand of easy global monetary policy supported financial
Another good year for investment returns ahead, if inflation trends downward Enormous fiscal stimulus, funded by monetary policy, and pandemic induced supply-side challenges pushed inflation to its highest level in nearly 40 years. This poses risk to cycle longevity and
Global Rates: Yields edge higher driven by ongoing inflation worries and 2022 rate-hike expectations Global Currencies: U.S. dollar remains resilient versus DM, EM currencies, acting as a market barometer of COVID concerns Investment Grade: Despite Fed and virus uncertainty, we see spreads
Amid persistent uncertainty, investors could stand to benefit from diversifying their portfolios. In this paper, we outline how the energy and health care sectors might help investors to grapple with inflation and further COVID challenges.
Omicron uncertainty; inflation certainty The resurgence of the virus cycle, central banks’ reactions to high inflation figures, and Evergrande’s unavoidable default have led to some volatility in the market, but these issues have not caused any major disruption. In the
Inflation and supply chain headwinds are expected to ease as the year progresses. And reopening trade will present select opportunities. As economies transition to recovery from the onset of the pandemic, there will be changes and challenges. Without accommodative monetary
Investment Outlook 2022 After the re-opening surge in 2021, growth in 2022 will moderate and central banks and governments will begin to remove stimulus. But we are far from worried about an abrupt stop in either economic activity or policymaker
Beleggingsvooruitzichten 2022 Na de heropeningsgolf in 2021 zal de groei in 2022 vertragen en zullen centrale banken en regeringen een begin maken met het afbouwen van hun stimuleringsmaatregelen. Wij maken ons echter allerminst zorgen over een abrupte stopzetting van de
Macro outlook: Compression, decompression, absorption Key points We expect pressure on global supply to gradually decline, contributing to a slowdown in inflation This would allow central banks to maintain a prudent approach to the pace of policy normalization It has
Commercial real estate (CRE) investment performance for US properties soared in the third quarter as unlevered total return reported by the National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) registered 12.1% for the four quarters ending September 30, 2021. This
After another extraordinary year for investors, expectations are mounting that 2022 will form a turning point for the global economy and markets: in the face of rising inflation, central bankers aim to withdraw the stimulus that has provided an extremely
10 KEY MESSAGES FROM THE 2022 INVESTMENT OUTLOOK The road back to 70s narrative gains traction. Secular stagnation is a thing of the past, the “roaring 20s” – a new economic miracle – a dream. Global growth will return to
We entered 2021 with the prospect of new vaccines taming Covid-19 and that effort proved transformative in developed markets. The coronavirus persists, however, and its impact will continue to be felt in 2022 as the pandemic plays out. New therapies
2021 was a standout year for UK real estate, which delivered annualised total returns of 14.7% to the end of October, as robust income returns were complemented by the return of capital growth. This represents the highest level of annualised
2021 was a year of booming markets which were in danger of overheating before the Omicron Covid-19 variant came along. A profit boom on both sides of the Atlantic has supported equity markets, with the US looking exceptionally strong in
Join us for a timely discussion on financial markets and the global economy, plus a detailed look at equity and bond market opportunities. We’ll conclude with implications for portfolio allocations in 2022.
Just one year ago, COVID-19 vaccines were not yet approved, gatherings were restricted amid surging cases, many schools and offices remained closed, and thoughts of moving past the pandemic seemed as realistic as visions of sugar plums. The transformation seen
In our 2022 Investment Outlook, we seek to help investors to navigate the rapids as the global economy stabilises during the next phases of the economic recovery. We also consider the possible broader consequences for macroeconomic policy as the world
While the world maintains its focus on the battle against COVID-19, there are reasons for optimism in the months ahead. We believe the current economic recovery will continue to deliver above-potential global growth. But as we move past peak growth
Our outlook favors the normalization case. The emergence of the Covid-19 Delta variant in the third quarter clearly put this thesis on hold and elongated the normalization process. Thus, the price pressures are going to leak well into 2022. But
In positioning portfolios for the unknowns ahead in 2022, institutional teams are watching five key themes that will shape portfolio strategy: Central banks hold the keys to investment success. Covid is no longer the greatest threat to growth. The hunt
ADDING RESILIENCE INTO PORTFOLIOS Global economy / Asset allocation Facing energy and inflation shocks, global activity is expected to moderate in the coming quarters. Downside risks to growth have grown due to lower visibility, the global energy shock leading to
After a surge in activity in the first half of the year the world economy hit an air pocket in the third quarter. Bottlenecks in supply chains meant that delivery times soared and firms had to cut production due to
2022 will mark a critical juncture on the road to a new economic and financial regime. Multiple coexisting transitions will drive the shift from the old to a new regime, that has already started in economic, social and geopolitical spheres,
The global private equity (PE) industry is scorching hot. Pent-up demand for deals was unleashed in H2 2020 following a brief hiatus as the COVID-19 pandemic sent economies all over the world into lockdown. As we head towards 2022, there
Shortages have challenged the recovery throughout this year, in a number of ways. Difficulties in supply chains and a slow return to work have persisted, while the costs of energy and housing are on the rise. These conditions are not
Investors should be proactive and prepare for volatility in 2022. The coming months will be dominated by decelerating economic growth, diverging central bank policies and persistent inflation. At the same time, it’s critical to align with the long-term trends –
At UBP we adapt and keep looking ahead. As the year draws to a close, we take stock and look towards the new year in our annual global Investment Outlook digital conference. We are pleased to invite you to join
Invitation: Media Webinar with William Davies (Deputy Global CIO), Melda Mergen (Global Head of Equities) and Gene Tannuzzo (Global Head of Fixed Income) Tuesday, 23 November 2021 at 13:30 GMT / 14:30 CET Nearly two years since the start of
