A third vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement appears to be off the table We analyse two potential scenarios and their likely market impacts A long extension looks most likely, but the risk of a no-deal Brexit still looms
Investment Talks Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit
Research & Strategy Insights As many democratic systems have emerged across developing countries, investors have had to be particularly vigilant around political events, such as presidential and general elections. In numerous emerging markets (EM), election years have historically coincided with
The UK Parliament has voted against UK Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal outlining terms for the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU). The defeat for PM May was substantial, losing by 432 to 202 votes. A government
We are upgrading the likelihood of three of our geopolitical risks, even as overall market attention to geopolitics has edged down recently. We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth
More than two years after the Brexit referendum, the UK will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019. Due to its complicated nature, Brexit has the potential to be a major disruptor to business as more than 40
UK political uncertainty has increased. The government withdrew a key vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. This was followed a by a leadership challenge, that Prime Minister May saw off 200-117. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) separately ruled that
Investment Talks Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead: After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of
Flash Note Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU,
Problem: Technology has improved our standard of living, but the rapid pace of development has created ethical dilemmas for companies, impacted many users and overwhelmed regulatory bodies. § Development: Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal is an obvious example of an ethical
This paper analyses the implications of the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union—“Brexit”—for the investment management industry. It serves as a guide for investment professionals. The Brexit process began when the UK government exercised Article 50 of the
This year’s Veteran’s Day/Remembrance Day observance was especially poignant, as it marked the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended World War I. The occasion prompted a number of historical remembrances, one of the best of which can be found
The cabinet of the UK government has backed a draft withdrawal treaty outlining terms for the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU). This ends months of uncertainty over whether or not the UK and EU could agree the exit
Investment Srategy Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic
Investment Talks Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic leadership
Weekly Commentary U.S. midterm elections this week could result in a shift in the balance of power in Washington, but are unlikely to bring any near-term policy shifts. Global equities took a breather after last week’s selloff, but Mexican assets
Trendzicht 2019 In AFM Trendzicht signaleert de AFM belangrijke trends en bijbehorende risico’s in de financiële sector. Het vroegtijdig signaleren en begrijpen van veranderingen in de sector draagt bij aan een effectieve, vooruitblikkende en preventieve toezichtaanpak. In deze eerste editie
Investment Talks The outcome: The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT). Post the first round, Bolsonaro appeared to be the favourite, based on discontent with established
Week Ahead US – Trump looks at mid-term elections US Fed – No interest rate hike next week EA – 3Q GPD growth disappoints
Brexit to have negative impact on long-term growth Cut in EU funds to be negative for investment in CEE Inflow of migrants from CEE to UK is likely to be smaller in years to come
Brexit issue to be discussed at EU summit from 17-18 October Core issue remains over how to solve problem of Irish border UK faces real risk of crashing out in March without a deal
Investment Talks The outcome: The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD. An increase in political fragmentation emerged from the election, with the Greens
Investment View De verkiezingen in Brazilië komen op een moeilijk moment, met de presidentskandidaten onder zware druk van de markt om met een geloofwaardig plan te komen om het begrotingstekort te verkleinen. Als de volgende president, die in oktober gekozen
Cross asset investment strategy monthly october 2018 Price dislocations lead to a rise in contrarian views Us midterm election: potential economic agenda and market implications
Investment Views The hot summer in emerging markets (EM) has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey,
