The text provides a comprehensive exploration of the current US debt ceiling standoff, reduced to two primary considerations: the mechanical and the process-related aspects. Firstly, it identifies the mechanical question concerning the time limit for raising the debt ceiling, in
Companies invest billions of dollars in political influence through lobbying, campaign contributions, and other means. However, as with other intangible assets, political capital tends to be overlooked by the market. We show how investors can earn excess returns buying undervalued
After a relatively limited election cycle across Latin America (Latam) in 2020, 2021 will surely go down in history as one of the most dramatic years for the region. Shockwaves were created in numerous elections and traditional parties saw their
The election of Joe Biden as the new US President places the world’s biggest economy back at the heart of international efforts to limit global warming. The Democrats’ environmental agenda is as bold as they come. A pledge to re-join the Paris Climate Accord within …
As we go to press, it looks likely that Democrats will also run the Senate, in addition to the White House and the House of Representatives. With expectations that this will translate into greater fiscal stimulus in the near-term, bond
Optimism about the gradual reopening of the global economy seemed to be the primary driver of sentiment last week. As restrictions on public gatherings continued …
On the brink of irreversible climate change, a combination of ground- breaking datasets and index innovation is emerging, through which investors will have the choice to align their investments to a future climate scenario compatible with mitigating catastrophic global warming
2020 Outlook 2020 will be another uncertain year. Brexit will rumble on, bringing further volatility and polarising the UK political dialogue; China and US relations will remain tense and concern markets, despite a possible partial trade deal being secured before
Impeachment process: The Democratic Party has announced the opening of an impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump following revelations that he pushed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy to investigate the son of Democratic opponent Joe Biden. The impeachment process is long
WHAT Impeachment is a procedure envisaged by the US Constitution under which all civil officers shall be removed from office on impeachment for, and conviction of, treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanours. The term "high crimes and misdemeanors”
Due to take place on 23-26 May, the European Parliamentary (EP) elections are approaching fast. The final results will be communicated in the evening of 26 May At the time of writing, if polls are correct (1), the two mainstream
A third vote on the Brexit withdrawal agreement appears to be off the table We analyse two potential scenarios and their likely market impacts A long extension looks most likely, but the risk of a no-deal Brexit still looms
Investment Talks Developments and scenarios ahead: This is probably the most decisive week for Brexit and the situation is still rapidly evolving. Last night, Mrs. May and Mr. Juncker announced an agreement on the most controversial part of the Brexit
Research & Strategy Insights As many democratic systems have emerged across developing countries, investors have had to be particularly vigilant around political events, such as presidential and general elections. In numerous emerging markets (EM), election years have historically coincided with
The UK Parliament has voted against UK Prime Minister (PM) Theresa May’s Brexit deal outlining terms for the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU). The defeat for PM May was substantial, losing by 432 to 202 votes. A government
We are upgrading the likelihood of three of our geopolitical risks, even as overall market attention to geopolitics has edged down recently. We see geopolitical risk as a material market factor in 2019, especially in an environment of slowing growth
More than two years after the Brexit referendum, the UK will be leaving the European Union on 29 March 2019. Due to its complicated nature, Brexit has the potential to be a major disruptor to business as more than 40
UK political uncertainty has increased. The government withdrew a key vote on the Brexit Withdrawal Agreement. This was followed a by a leadership challenge, that Prime Minister May saw off 200-117. The European Court of Justice (ECJ) separately ruled that
Investment Talks Where we stand and possible scenarios ahead: After the EU approval of Brexit deal, we are going to pass through some tough times until the UK parliamentary vote on Brexit Withdrawal Agreement in December. UK Parliamentary ratification of
Flash Note Theresa May’s cabinet has approved her divorce deal with the European Union (EU). A few cabinet secretaries have resigned, including Brexit Secretary Dominic Raab because the deal keeps the UK in a transitory ‘customs union’ with the EU,
Problem: Technology has improved our standard of living, but the rapid pace of development has created ethical dilemmas for companies, impacted many users and overwhelmed regulatory bodies. § Development: Facebook’s Cambridge Analytica scandal is an obvious example of an ethical
This paper analyses the implications of the United Kingdom’s decision to exit the European Union—“Brexit”—for the investment management industry. It serves as a guide for investment professionals. The Brexit process began when the UK government exercised Article 50 of the
This year’s Veteran’s Day/Remembrance Day observance was especially poignant, as it marked the 100th anniversary of the armistice that ended World War I. The occasion prompted a number of historical remembrances, one of the best of which can be found
The cabinet of the UK government has backed a draft withdrawal treaty outlining terms for the UK’s departure from the European Union (EU). This ends months of uncertainty over whether or not the UK and EU could agree the exit
Investment Srategy Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic
Investment Talks Key takeaway: In the midterm election Democrats win the House and the GOP (Grand Old Party) strengthens its position in the Senate. Possible scenarios ahead: We believe there are two paths that could emerge between the Democratic leadership
Weekly Commentary U.S. midterm elections this week could result in a shift in the balance of power in Washington, but are unlikely to bring any near-term policy shifts. Global equities took a breather after last week’s selloff, but Mexican assets
Trendzicht 2019 In AFM Trendzicht signaleert de AFM belangrijke trends en bijbehorende risico’s in de financiële sector. Het vroegtijdig signaleren en begrijpen van veranderingen in de sector draagt bij aan een effectieve, vooruitblikkende en preventieve toezichtaanpak. In deze eerste editie
Investment Talks The outcome: The expected outcome of the presidential election occurred, with right-wing candidate Jair Bolsonaro (PSL) winning vs the leftist Fernando Haddad (PT). Post the first round, Bolsonaro appeared to be the favourite, based on discontent with established
Week Ahead US – Trump looks at mid-term elections US Fed – No interest rate hike next week EA – 3Q GPD growth disappoints
Brexit to have negative impact on long-term growth Cut in EU funds to be negative for investment in CEE Inflow of migrants from CEE to UK is likely to be smaller in years to come
Brexit issue to be discussed at EU summit from 17-18 October Core issue remains over how to solve problem of Irish border UK faces real risk of crashing out in March without a deal
Investment Talks The outcome: The election result in Bavaria marked the defeat of the conservative CSU, which lost its absolute majority, and of its junior ally, the SPD. An increase in political fragmentation emerged from the election, with the Greens
Investment View De verkiezingen in Brazilië komen op een moeilijk moment, met de presidentskandidaten onder zware druk van de markt om met een geloofwaardig plan te komen om het begrotingstekort te verkleinen. Als de volgende president, die in oktober gekozen
Cross asset investment strategy monthly october 2018 Price dislocations lead to a rise in contrarian views Us midterm election: potential economic agenda and market implications
Investment Views The hot summer in emerging markets (EM) has been a key investor theme in the third quarter of this year. While the ongoing US/China trade tensions continue to weigh on investor sentiment, the sequence of country-specific stories (Turkey,
Tariffs are up, but so are risk assets The US announced tariffs of 10% on USD 200bn of Chinese imports, effective 24 September. And China retaliated with 5–10% tariffs on USD 60bn of US imports. Yet risk assets shrugged off
By the time this editorial is published, we should have a good idea of the final results of the Swedish general elections. Initial exit polling suggests that, much like the Dutch elections last year, populist forces have not exactly achieved
Investment Highlights ̴week 36 Italië lijkt eieren voor haar geld te kiezen. Diverse Italiaanse politici stelden de financiële markten gerust dat het begrotingstekort binnen de perken zal blijven. Eerder dreigde de Italiaanse regering de Europese begrotingsregels nog aan haar laars
Global Investment Views Concerns about trade continue to take centre stage. While US assets have so far been resilient amid escalating protectionist rhetoric, markets targeted by tariffs are under pressure. We still don’t believe a full trade war is likely
For investors who remain underallocated to EM USD-denominated sovereign bonds, this is a good time to look through the noise and rebalance. There is no denying that emerging market (EM) assets have underperformed developed market counterparts year-to-date. Reading the financial
The US may try to contain China's industrial advancement by using trade barriers, but in the end it cannot stop China's ascent up the valueadded industrial ladder. The US administration has asserted that its trade engagement with China is about
Investment View De economische problemen van Turkije en oplopende spanningen met de Verenigde Staten waren de afgelopen dagen volop in het nieuws. Dit zorgde wereldwijd voor meer risicoaversie bij beleggers, terwijl het vertrouwen in opkomende markten is afgenomen. Gezien de
Lasting global implications from lira drop seem unlikely Following a massive decline that reached its peak to date at the beginning of the week, the Turkish lira’s exchange rate levelled off, meaning that the losses could be compensated for partially.
Market outlook While the Turkish lira gained a lot last week, volatility is still high, as it remains unclear what exact short-term steps could come after the Finance Minister told investors last week that he is committed to macroeconomic and
Regional view – United Kingdom "Broadly speaking this quarter's earning season hasn't been as good versus expectations as other quarters, but nor has it been particularly weak" I have spent a bit of time in recent weeks assessing the FTSE
Regional view – United States Don't lose sight of the big economic picture, which is positive, by getting caught up in day-today market headlines, which often aren't Alliteration is one way to describe recent news headlines: Tariffs, Turkey, Tesla, Trump,
Regional view – Emerging Markets As the crisis intensified, the assets most punished have been those of the "usual suspects" – economies like Turkey that have large funding gaps and are politically constrained. The reaction of global financial markets to
BII Global weekly commentary We see corporate earnings strength, particularly in the U.S., extending through year-end, as upbeat guidance signals company confidence The Turkish lira hit record lows amid rising worries about Turkey’s fragile economy, sending jitters across emerging markets
"…we shouldn’t be surprised if the theoretical deadlines for reaching an agreement come and go over the next couple of months unmet." With the holiday season upon us, one would have hoped that the interminable Brexit process would have made
