Global Asset Allocation for Q2 2023: Defensive Approach and Regional Bias toward Emerging Markets The economic cycle analysis suggests a contraction phase, leading to a more defensive approach with more cash and less risk. Within the Model Asset Allocation, the
Quarterly macro and market insights: Markets rebounded in the fourth quarter of 2022, closing a year marked by high volatility as the US Federal Reserve (Fed) reset its monetary policy path. US equities gained, credit spreads tightened and interest rate
It’s a gloomy time of year in more ways than one at the moment. Even the excitement of my recent move to a new house can’t distract from the literal and figurative darkness of January 2023. The war …
Global stocks rose as investors welcomed signs that inflation may have peaked in key markets around the world. Consumer price increases — while still high on a historical basis — moderated in the U.S., Europe and …
A combination of sustained inflation and mounting recession fears, interlinked with the geopolitical situation, are the main drivers affecting the current and forward-looking macro environments. The bulk of the uncertainty is in the short to medium term. There is a
Asset class returns in the long term We have certainly had plenty of surprises this year. As far as the economy is concerned, few of them have been positive so far. The war in Ukraine and the bottlenecks created by
During Q3 2022, global markets continued to fall across the board, from equities, to bonds and commodities. No region, sector or style was immune to it. After a relief rally in July, equities fell, and bond yields rose as inflation
While most investors are open to equity exposure in a low volatility market, they tend to shy away as volatility increases. To counteract equity volatility, asset managers have traditionally added perceived ‘safe haven’ assets like government bonds to the portfolio.
To be successful, companies need to have people at the helm who are wellequipped to create resilient long-term growth. By voting and engaging directly with companies, we encourage management to control risks while seeking to benefit from emerging opportunities. We
On August 26, 2022, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Public Company Accounting Oversight Board (PCAOB), the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), and the Ministry of Finance announced the signing of a Statement of Protocol, allowing the PCAOB to conduct
Quarterly macro and market insights: Sharp shifts in expectations for central bank policy and the resultant market volatility underscore the challenges facing investors. The third quarter featured a tale of two halves: An initial rally across markets turned into a
Central bank watch: The global hiking cycle is in full swing. In our analysis, we expect all central banks, except the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the People’s Bank of China (PBoC), to remain formidable hawks until at least early
There was no shortage of fear in the global bond markets in the third quarter. Central banks aggressively pushed short rates higher in response to the worst inflation of the last half …
Schroders CIO Lens: At the beginning of the summer, I asked the question “are we there yet?”, in relation to whether it was time to start thinking about taking on more investment risk. The answer then was no. At that
Q4 2022 Investment Outlook: The global economy is facing a confluence of shocks, most recently the severe reaction in UK assets and FX to the new fiscal package (roughly 10% of GDP, unfunded). Market confidence has continued to slide on
Economic and Market Review: Key Considerations for Equity Investors The outlook we laid out last quarter remains unchanged, and yet the debate about whether we are in a bull or bear market has been as volatile as the market itself.
The year 2022 seems to have caused a regime shift in financial markets. In previous years, the assumption largely was that the world had more a deflationary issue due to aging, globalization and lack of bargaining power of labor. However
Central banks other than the Bank of Japan hiked rates further in Q3 and made clear that the fight against inflation is priority number one. That means hiking fast and keeping rates higher for as long as necessary. An early
Persistently high inflation rates and a significant increase in interest rates are weighing on economic momentum and pushing up volatility on the financial markets. In addition, geopolitical tensions are in place that favour safe-haven flows. We regard the medium and
The outlook we laid out last quarter remains unchanged, and yet the debate about whether we are in a bull or bear market has been as volatile as the market itself. Bullish investors felt vindicated for a while, and offered
In this report, we present the DWS long-term capital market assumptions for major asset classes as of the end of June 2022 while exploring the risks to these forecasts.
Elevated economic uncertainty, rising inflation, and investor expectations of a downshift in global growth from the stellar rebound of 2021 were already underway at the start …
Global tactical asset allocation views brief As inflation data continued to surprise on the upside, major central banks had no other choice but to tighten their monetary policies more aggressively than markets had expected. This led to speculations that a
Headline inflation will likely peak this quarter, but domestic service inflation should continue to rise. Growth is set to slow as consumers feel the squeeze in real …
Global equities fell in Q2, extending year-to-date declines. The MSCI World Index returned -16.2% in Q2, taking the YTD fall to -20.5%. The market backdrop remained dominated by concerns over higher inflation, rising …
Multi Asset Quarterly Inflation remains the number one topic in the financial markets. Soaring energy prices and persistent supply shortages for a wide range of goods and services are the major drivers of higher prices. Overall, central banks have become
Ongoing geopolitical tensions and supply-side shortages are leading to high inflation rates and a weaker economic outlook. In this tension field, central banks are tightening monetary policy. Weaker economic data could cause interest rate expectations to fall by the end
Most assets have again delivered negative returns in both local currency and USD, with the notable exception of commodities (or more precisely energy and agricultural products). That was unfortunate for us, given that we were zero-weighted in commodities (having been
Economic and Strategy Viewpoint Q2 2022 – The peak in global inflation is probably not far away, but there are several reasons to think that it will fall relatively slowly. Lockdowns in China have caused bottlenecks in global supply chains
Q2 Strategy Outlook In the second quarter, there are two overriding themes: the geopolitical situation is more dangerous than many of us can remember, and markets are dealing with inflation not seen in at least 40 years. We believe investors
Slower growth rates, tighter labour markets, higher inflation and normalising monetary policies provides the classic backdrop to a great rotation from growth to value stocks, as well as a change in fixed income strategy. But, as we discuss in this
The uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, the sharp increase in commodity prices, and the deterioration of supply chain issues are dampening the economic outlook. At the same time, the inflation risks have increased drastically. The Fed has promised
While the word inflation again dominated markets over Q4 2021, a new word rivalled it by December: Omicron. This Covid-19 mutation was identified by South African scientists and soon it was spreading fast. The world flew into a panic, banning
Cross asset allocation: Despite a volatile end to the year for markets, 2021 still was marked by strong equity market returns and above-trend economic growth. We expect the pace of growth to moderate in 2022. Central banks have begun removing
Alts in aggregate Real estate Infrastructure Private Markets Hedge funds
Cross asset allocation: Despite a volatile end to the year for markets, 2021 still was marked by strong equity market returns and above-trend economic growth. We expect the pace of growth to moderate in 2022. Central banks have begun removing
Cross asset allocation: Despite a volatile end to the year for markets, 2021 still was marked by strong equity market returns and above-trend economic growth. We expect the pace of growth to moderate in 2022. Central banks have begun removing
Schroders Equity Lens: Global equities ended the year on a high note, rallying by 6.8% in Q4, as a strong earnings season coupled with a relatively stable interest rate environment supported performance …
Multi Asset Quarterly: The economic growth outlook is strong, driven by a resilient consumer, low inventories and infrastructure spending. The rapid rise in Omicron cases, however, may limit the service sector’s recovery in Q1 and push out the economic normalization
Global Asset Allocation Views – 1Q 2022: It is too early to say with certainty how and when the pandemic will finally retreat. Rapid deployment of restrictions in Europe suggests we are not there yet. But at the same time,
Real Estate Outlook – Edition 4, 2021: The global economy slowed in the third quarter, hit by a combination of supply chain constraints and the Delta variant of COVID-19. Business surveys reported that manufacturing production is lagging behind orders as
Q4 2021 | Fixed Income Outlook: Global financial markets were mixed during the third quarter. Fixed-income markets faced volatility from multiple directions, including the Federal Reserve’s announced intention to taper monthly bond purchases, the expiration of the U.S. federal debt
The robust reopening rally in US stocks lost steam in Q3, mired by broad September losses, as investors recalibrated expectations for the US recovery, inflation and Fed policy support. Amid big swings in risk appetite and a late-quarter bondmarket selloff,
Global equity markets edged down during 2021’s third quarter (Q3). Early in the period, strong corporate earnings in several parts of the world, full US regulatory approval for a COVID-19 vaccine, and the Chinese central bank’s liquidity-boosting measures aided markets.
We are marginally more cautious as the Chinese economy becomes unsettled and supply-chain issues persist, but retain our belief that we are in the middle of the cycle, not approaching the end. After cruising along for months, the S&P 500
Global Sustainable Outcomes: There’s only one way to summarise Q2: a world divided. In North America and Europe economic recovery exceeded expectations as successful vaccination programmes supported market reopening. Here in the UK we emerged from a bleak winter of
Advanced Economies Outlook Q4 2021: The first signs of a slowdown in the remarkable pace of the global economic recovery have emerged. Still, a slow but steady normalisation in advanced economies implies a continuation of above-trend economic activity expansion. Vaccination
The re-opening of the world economy continues and economic activity has picked up substantially. However, the strength of the rebound in demand has caught firms by surprise and supply chains are stretched with the consequence that inflation has picked up.
Thematic equities in focus: After the rotation witnessed in Q1 2021, the second quarter was quieter, with elements of the inherent market volatility having subsided. However, investors continue to have questions around the prospect of inflation as economies continue to
